BIDEN’S SUPER SUPER TUESDAY - NOW WHAT?

Within seventy - two hours the American political landscape changed dramatically. The whirlwind that was inextricably heading for a depressing toxic battle between populists Trump and Sanders, suddenly halted and all indications were that it would change direction. There were a number of factors that contributed to this abrupt transformation. With the fear of  coronavirus hanging over the country ignored for a weekend extending to Tuesday Joe Biden burst through the clouds and reset the Democratic Presidential nomination race. 

The question is how Biden who was on life support, abandoned by the establishment with no money, no advertising and having lost his first three races in depressing fashion was resuscitated ? In addition the enormity of Biden’s wins have not been fully followed through by the media who still want a horse race, After the first three contests Bernie was supposed to be a shoe in. Polls showed him competitive in South Carolina. Even after his slaughter in South Carolina, Super Tuesday was where Bernie was to build up a convincing lead of delegates. Pundits forecast if Biden could hold him to only a hundred and fifty delegates then he had a chance of catching up as the months rolled by. Instead Joe has the potential to end the marathon if the momentum holds.

One further introductory point what followed Biden’s triumphs was an incredible display of commitment and sacrifice by the other candidates, initially Buttigieg and Klobuchar then Bloomberg all dropping out of the race. The former throwing their full backing not to mention the latter’s resources, behind the former Vice President.

BIDEN’S NEAR MIRACLE RISING FROM THE ASHES BEGINS IN SOUTH CAROLINA

It was always likely that Biden was going to win South Carolina but the questions was by how much. The polls all showed the margin being less than ten percent. The billionaire Steyer had virtually taken up residence there gaining traction in the African American community. Pete Buttigieg tried his heart out to be heard by the key demographic while Bernie over four years, looking like a winner, had made what he thought was a breakthrough. It took the doyen of South Carolina politics, Jim Clyburn to give the electric shock that got the heart going into the Obama Vice President’s campaign. The result a walloping thirty percent victory for Joe “Who knows us and whom we know”. This endorsement will go down in the Guinness book of records as one of the most historic of all time, propelling Joe Biden into the fourteen State extravaganza just 60 hours later.

 The question was how he would fare. Was South Carolina a one off? 

Mike Bloomberg had run a highly sophisticated operation costing four hundred million. He had entered the race after Biden’s lack luster disastrous showing in Iowa to counter Bernie and was now about to participate. The Democratic Establishment had quietly pinned their hopes on him. Bloomberg played into Bernie’s mantra as he would now face the perfect foil, the oligarch, former the Mayor from New York, who was a metaphor for all that was wrong in America .On top of all of this Biden had not visited several of the Super Tuesday States and, had no offices in most with his presence in the local media being non est. As he left Charleston Buttigieg and Klobuchar were still in the race. He had sixty hours before voting began. To counter what momentum he could generate from Charleston the public admonition from his friend and savior Clyburn to “Get his campaign act together” had to be ringing in his ears. 

WHAT BIDEN FACED ON SUPER TUESDAY 

The one massive advantage of his shockingly large win in South Carolina besides the momentum that that engenders was that he became the center of the news cycle from then on. In the age of instantaneous communication social and traditional that is one colossal asset. While the formal media are always “In search of the truth” they have to sell space to survive. Everybody loves a “comeback kid” especially if he is the “underdog”. In addition Biden to those at home, in this day and age of populists and slick polished politicians, is not glib and is difficult to identify with the elites. He is one of us. In his Senate days he used to commute by train. He punctuates his points with inanities such as “Here’s the deal” and “Come on man”. What is even more important he was after all Obama’s Vice President for eight years. He has to be trustworthy if Barak thought so. There he joyously played second fiddle to the first African American President, who is still the most popular politician in the country today.

Fourteen States were up for grabs and Bernie looked headed for a commanding lead in delegates. He would sweep the North and West. He was ahead in delegate rich Texas and North Carolina and Virginia were toss ups The polls showed Obama’s second in command even though he had more campaign contributions had not enough time to spend them. He went to Alabama, Texas and California where he was way behind in the polls, One third had already voted  in California where Bennie had had field offices for the past four years, and was on the path for a clean sweep of nearly four hundred and fifty delegates. 

To add insult to injury Bloomberg felt he could win five contests, mostly in Joe’s territory in the South. (His campaign manager subsequently revealed that this was indeed the status. They had the most refined digital monitoring system in place. The latter had signaled however, before the voting had begun, that the world had changed post South Carolina to a place where Biden had regained not only his mojo but back to top of the Democratic heap).

BIDEN’S PERFECT STORM GETS STRONGER FOR SUPER TUESDAY

Then the perfect storm gathered even more clouds as popular young moderates Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar “suspended” their campaigns, endorsed him joining Texas’s favorite Democrat Beto O’ Rourke and the newly confident challenger Biden at a rally which was covered nation wide to a massive TV audience. 

The next day it all happened Biden swooped ten of the fourteen states. He ran the deck in the South. He convincingly won supposed marginal States, North Carolina and Virginia. He came from way behind to win Texas. But the cherry on the top was that he won three Northern States that his main rival thought he had in the bag, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Maine. Furthermore he grabbed some delegates in Vermont from Sanders. 

What makes Joe’s victory that much more amazing is that Sanders won Massachusetts and Maine in 2016. He also came with an ace of adding Minnesota to his tally against Hillary. To add to his woes he lost the MidWest State of Oklahoma which was in his column last Primary. Then the three Western States that he won all had assisted Sanders in that they afforded a long period in early voting. Colorado and Utah may have seen a Biden victory had Bloomberg not participated as well. Finally as the California vote continues the gap is narrowing and if the former Mayor of New York had been out of the race Biden would have clearly won in California. 

More significantly Biden’’s dominance in the key demographic of the Democratic Party, African Americans had increased to thirty four percent over the Vermont Senator. The  demographic that had won the 2018 elections for the Blue Party, namely suburban women, had come out for Joe in increasing numbers. Similarly those over forty five had increased their participation in his favor. The upshot of all this was record turnouts for Democratic Primaries but not where Bernie had promised - the youth who support him. His argument for electability over Biden had taken a hit.

AFTER SUPER TUESDAY’S BALL WAS OVER

The perfect storm developed even more menacingly over an embattled Trump floundering in the coronavirus crisis as Mayor Bloomberg “suspended” his contestant status. He had entered because Biden couldn’t win and now it was obvious he could. He consequently stood down for an “Old friend and great American”. His campaign manager made it quite clear that the organization they had built to defeat Trump would remain in place. Campaign laws forbade a direct transfer of assets to Biden. (G-d knows why they allow everything else). There is little doubt that one way or another the incredible resources including their information gathering will be available to Biden. Bernie doesn’t want them any way.

Sanders gave an hour long interview to Rachel Maddow in an attempt, Jay H. Ell assumes, to finally broaden his base. However he found it difficult to get his line straight. He argued he was running against the Democratic Establishment but just had featured an ad with the de facto head former President Barak Obama. He had forgotten that he sought to run against in an otherwise non existent Democratic Primary in 2012. He continued that his African American vote was increasing and he had made inroads although he had no statistics to back him up. When confronted as to why he had not even contacted the African American head honcho Jim Clyburn in South Carolina who was also the House of Representatives Chief Whip, he unbelievably replied - their politics differed!. When presented with the fact that the demographics that supported Biden had increased on Super Tuesday he lamely said he had not seen those numbers. He carried on with his theme that America wanted a revolution when all they wanted was to get rid of Trump, get cheaper universal healthcare and a fairer deal. 

Senator Warren pulled out of the race after adding a scholarly dimension to the debate. She not surprisingly didn’t endorse Sanders, at least not yet, She still has to have as an aspiration to heal the gulf between the two halves of the Party. It is sadly obvious that a woman challenger is still  not on the American body politic’s radar.

Alexandria Ocasio - Cotez, Sander’s most influential supporter, who kept his campaign alive during his heart attack, changed her position from that her and Biden should be in different Parties and pledged to support whoever the Party’s nominee might be.

Biden himself promised to be a uniter and not a divider. Echoing his former boss’s theme that there were no Red States or Blue States only the United States.

Trump went to overdrive in the tweet mode with two themes Bernie had been robbed by the Democratic Establishment and “Crooked Joe Biden and his son Hunter”. A theme that will replace “Crooked Hillary’s e mails”.The Senate Republican controlled Committee of Homeland Security are initiating an enquiry into the activities of the Biden’s in Ukraine. 

As California counting draws to a close Biden’s delegate lead extends to eighty. Not bad for someone who a less than a week ago was told that the best he could pray for was to keep Sanders lead to a one hundred and fifty  after Super Tuesday. If you add the numbers of Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Klobuchar’s they supplement Biden’s tally if it comes to it. Warren if she throws her lot with the Vermont Senator cannot match the latter three’s total.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

In March there are another nine hundred delegates at stake in the Primaries including delegate rich Southern States Florida, Mississippi, Missouri and Georgia where close on half of the action is. Here Biden should rack up the lead big time. In the Midwest where “The Burn” is pinning his hopes Ohio, Idaho and Michigan at best he may win narrowly. In the latter two he barely beat Hillary. With the Michigan Governor coming out in favor of Biden Jay H. Ell believes there will be more of the same. Arizona is a toss up so there may not be enough mileage either way and so it goes…

If Biden’s momentum continues racking up a big head of steam Bernie should get the hell out of the race otherwise he is nothing but a spoiler and it is dejavu all over again. He cannot be seriously thinking of a run in 2024!

The menacing coronavirus hangs all over this as Trump’s distortions become more and more obvious with the reality to the world around them. On that note Trump should get the message that large rallies don’t translate into the popular vote. They merely entertain the converted.

Only Biden stands in the way of Biden. Finally humility has replaced hubris. If he just hangs in there the choice won’t be between two populists anymore.