TRUMP: BLUE VIRUSES AND RED VIRUSES

President Obama, in what seems like a thousand years ago, inspired the nation with his cry - “There are no blues states, there are no red states - only the United States”. Donald Trump doesn’t believe in that mantra - even in a pandemic that threatens the lives of Americans. He has misled his red state cult to the extent that up till March the majority of Republicans polled stated that the Covid 19 emergency was being exaggerated. Slogans such as the scare was a “Democratic Hoax” were the order of the day while he bragged the number of cases would soon be down to zero. Even when he declared a National Emergency on March 13, he did not do so with great conviction. Then, the number of confirmed cases was at sixteen thousand and deaths forty - one, now, two weeks later they are exponentially increasing the tally being one hundred and twenty - four thousand with those succumbing at two thousand three hundred. With no sign of the curve flattening the POTUS would like to re open the economy. 

The cynics have noted that the POTUS doesn’t even need to read a one page briefing of double spaced sentences to note where the largest concentration of cases are. He needs just to glance at the map and note where the consolidation of victims are. Although they are depicted with red balls they are in deep blue states. Trump as he has exhibited is far more inclined to listen to red Governor De Sanctis of red Florida than blue Governor Cuomo of blue New York.

The crisp point is that the POTUS wants to get the economy buzzing while the consensus is that the priority is eliminating the virus first. In his quest he is enlisting the support of the Red States that are mainly in the center of America which have not yet been proportionally hit. In his bizarre endeavor, besides the usual sycophants he is being aided and abetted by the Fox Nightly News Team. A poll from Survey 160 and Gradient Metrics indicated that Republicans or Near Republicans that watch Fox hold the POTUS’S view in greater numbers than those that don’t. Trump’s position at the moment to put it kindly is ambivalent but he has made it quite clear that the economy is in free fall and that the current cure for the pandemic is worse than the disease. Or as Rush Limbaugh, has so succinctly put it, “We didn’t elect a President to listen to a bunch of health experts that we don’t know”.

If it wasn’t for the Governors and Mayors and the civil servants in fact next to nothing would have been achieved. At the end of the day Trump will have wished he would have led from the front because the coronavirus pandemic will become a tidal wave enveloping the country, whether it is red or blue. Like Obama said they are not just Blue States and Red States but……. 

TRUMP’S CURRENT POSITION - GET REELECTED

Trump principle reelection strategy has relied on a healthy economy. It is thus fair to interpret his mumbo jumbo as being in favor of resuming economic activity as soon as possible. He mooted April 10 as the date when he would reassess his position on “social distancing” and stay at home policy. The POTUS absurdly prophesied that the Church Pews would be full on April 10 again ignoring the fact that most of the religious leaders have already cancelled services. The orthodox rabbis in Chicago, for example, maintained that it would be a sin to hold any service of even ten notwithstanding the Passover Holiday.

In desperation Trump has backed legislation allotting over three trillion dollars in bail out money most of which is going to lower and middle income groups, which ethos reflects the Pelosi Democratic “worker’ philosophy rather than the McConnell Republican “business trickle down” approach. The Federal Reserve to Trump’s delight has acted promptly and  potentially will make four trillion dollars available in one way or another. He like everyone else hopes that these actions will stave off a depression. Everyone other than him has acknowledged that a recession is inevitable. 

In his urgency to get the economy moving, he is backed by some Republicans including Governors of some of the Red States. Of course his echo chamber, the loudest of which is the evening Fox News, is backing his argument that this country was not made to shut down. The right wing media support was exemplified by Glenn Beck who broadcast that he was prepared to go out there into the economy and die for the sake of his children! 

The President has recognized that the crisis has prime time television high ratings so he has taken over as being the front of the response while leaving the action to the Corporations, States, Counties, Cities and Towns. While leading from behind he also has to tolerate his health professionals correcting his lay medical beliefs, hunches, guesses and misinformation. He is impervious to the daily fact checking which adds to his thousands of recorded lies and misstatements.  

All this posturing when the areas that Trump does have control of, namely a national integrative plan and the tools to counter the pandemic such as tests, Personal Protective Equipment and ventilators are not being addressed comprehensively. Most irresponsibly he wasted two months of lead time by ignoring his professionals by arguing as late as three weeks ago that soon the fifteen American case score would be nil. He has only now enforced the Defense Protection Act which allows him to order production by manufactures of items that are essential to the country’s survival.

With the US case numbers and deaths having doubled every two or three days, Trump’s position changes almost with the same rapidity. Within the last twelve hours he backed off his bizarre decision to quarantine the States of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. 

FLORIDA A CASE STUDY IN MADNESS

Florida is a disaster waiting to happen. They have the highest concentration of elderly in the country. Several counties have populations that have median ages over sixty - six. Governor deSanctis who with Trump’s help was one of the few that bucked the 2018 Democratic trend keeping the Governorship red. He has refused lockdown. Furthermore he  welcomed the annual flood of thousands of students crowding his beaches, bars and restaurants to celebrate spring break. 

Trump has lauded deSanctis’s laid back approach and his administration has cooperated with him big time. According to a Washington Post expose deSanctis received the two shipments of supplies that he asked for. This is in stark contrast to his attitude towards Governors whose criticism has angered him. He publicly instructed Vice President Pence not even to speak to the Governors of Michigan and California to the shock of anyone sane.

Now the Florida Governor believes that the problem Florida faces is that New Yorkers will flee to his state. He was the one who suggested to the POTUS the quarantine of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut which Trump promptly announced - this injunction without consultation with anybody. Not only was it impractical to say the least it was not constitutional. Ten hours later Trump withdrew his “order”. In its place he instructed the Center of Disease Control to issue a strong travel advisory in an attempt to meet Governor deSanctis needs. The Governor in the meantime has road patrols on the main highway into Florida from the North checking on passengers who may be from New York and informing them that if they come there they have to go into self quarantine. A remedy he does not apply to his own citizens even after what happened in Louisiana after their mass gathering. 

The Florida Governor would be more advised to get his whole state to isolate not just the odd New Yorker that he happens to pick up on the roads. The wealth of his State depends on tourism and the literally millions, mainly New Yorkers, that retire there. The current figures for Florida are about four thousand positives with fifty - six deaths. Pretty low by current American standards. However if the Louisiana figures are anything to go by the surge will be about two weeks after the mass gathering from other parts of the country and world. No doubt he and Trump will blame New York. 

CRACKS IN THE WALL . 

As the days go by cracks are emerging in the brick wall of support. According to a report from National Public Radio Increasing numbers of Republicans are recognizing the seriousness of the coronavirus threat. A poll was conducted by the Public Religion Research Group who noted no statistical differences between religious or political groups. A review of polls by FiveThirtyEight, the most recognized political forecasting website, which indicated that since the beginning of March the gap between Republicans and Democrats on how serious the threat was, has been decreasing. 

The Congress Legislators have been at one on the unprecedented trillion dollar relief packages which recognize the severity directly and indirectly. Directly by sending dollops of aid to first responders and their needs and secondly by trying to remedy the financial impact this will have. The Republicans have been persuaded, albeit reluctantly, that the aid should go directly to those that need it.

Trump’s attempts to open the economy have been met with horror by some of his closest allies. Lindsey Graham, sycophant in chief, warned him, “If you open the economy too early against the advice of public - health experts you will own the deaths from coronavirus that will follow”. Graham followed up his not so subtle advice to the President by underlining the danger politically both to him and the Republicans of choosing the economy and the stock market over the health of the American people. According to a Washington Post report Trump listened but did not answer Graham’s plea.

TRUMP’S POLL BOOST

Trump has bragged that his approval rating is up - higher than it has been for years. It hovers above the forty - five percent mark even in one poll reaching forty - seven. However the Governors are scoring far higher for their handling of the pandemic. The public are also ambivalent towards the POTUS as in the same poll sixty percent stated he acted too slowly. With regard to opening his economy priority the polls are not in favor, the overwhelming majority backing drastic  actions to stem the tide.

 Presidents’ ratings always increase in a crisis.  Clinton's after the Kansas mass shooting rose to eighty percent as did George W’s after 9/11 while George HW was at ninety percent following Dessert Storm. So a three to five percent rise to under fifty percent is not a figure to plaster on campaign adverts.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Trump will probably back down on his attempts to re open the economy, most of which the companies and the Governors closed anyway. He will continue to muddle on misleading as opposed to leading even as he belatedly applies the Defense Protection Act.

To state the obvious once again it will be the local elected representatives that will get the job done. They together with the paid civil servants will be in the forefront. It was most heartening to hear the head of the Army Engineer Corp who has finally been called on to help. He outlined how was able to build and or modify buildings to create different types of hospitals across the country, within weeks. Last but not least the front line health care personnel, the law enforcement, the grocery shelve packers and society as a whole who are displaying a grit and determination and community spirit, a great big thanks.

 Trump’s first first is that he is leader of the largest outbreak of coronavirus in the Western world. 

Trump will sadly learn a costly lesson that there are no blue and red viruses. He is right on with one observation - that his handling of the crisis is as perfect as his conversation was with President Zelensky of Ukraine. 

Stay safe and healthy as everyone does their bit to flatten the curve. 

AMERICA FACES UNCERTAINTY IN THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS

In the week, beginning March 15 - Trump, who now has recognized that “Horrible terrible invisible enemy - the Chinese virus”, ramped up his paranoia and braggadocio;  social distancing and isolation accelerated, with a total of five states ordering stay at home instructions; there were shortages everywhere and Personal Protective Equipment, (PPE) was still woefully short; hospital bed and ventilator availability was being overwhelmed this early on and the fact that tests are only recommended with those in immediate contact with a positive patient and those with serious symptoms - leaving out those at home with minor disease - underlies the scarcity of PPE and the fact that the country is struggling to control the pandemic. 

The numbers reflected the exponential growth of the infection - with twenty - eight thousand confirmed cases and three hundred and forty deaths nationwide. In the State of New York alone, at the beginning of the week there were eight hundred positives and by the end of the week there were over eleven thousand. The situation was at a crossroads with the country battling to avoid the Italian nightmare where doctors no longer treat those over sixty years of age.

On the brighter side the Governors and Mayors are not trafficking in false hope and are planning methodically and scientifically to meet the needs of their communities. The FDA has ratified a forty - five minute test which will be used in hospitals and several trials are in process including a third phase study of hydroxycloroquine and zithromax which has shown promise in China and France. Also permission has been given for that combination and an AIDS retroviral drug which was extensively administered in China to be part of the management of serious non responsive patients. The vaccination research continues apace. But all these latter interventions are not going to help now. In addition to the local government institutions the corporations, the non government organizations, welfare bodies, the philanthropic foundations and society in general have come up trumps.

Besides PPE the crucial limiting factors at the moment are Intensive Care Unit beds and Ventilators which have the potential to cut the mortality by half. The biggest fear in containing the outbreak are the many senior living quarters which are more prevalent in America than anywhere else in the world. Also the leaders are terrified that the exponential increase of infections will not flatten out and the medical system will be overwhelmed with an unmanageable number of seriously ill patients as has been the outcome in Italy. 

THE FEDERAL RESPONSE

As the coronavirus crisis accelerates, the numbers of positives doubling daily, and virtual lock downs are ordered in California, New York, Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey, the extent of the American unpreparedness becomes more and more evident. While Trump with his echo chambers have mutated into believers of the danger of the virus, he still greets every ominous situation with misinformation and his customary self praise. His refrain is that “It is under control” is patently false. He reassures as his sycophants repeatedly congratulate him for his leadership and issue false claims about millions of test kits that don’t arrive. His solution to the ICU bed crisis are two  hospital ships off the coasts that are nowhere ready to be functional. While his Administration have located a few thousand ventilators, hope that they can recondition those used by anesthetists, and welcome General Motors’s efforts to move to production of ventilators, none of their solutions inspire confidence that the demand can be met soon enough.

 It has been left to the few professionals to correct the POTUS where they can. In the past two days he has falsely claimed that there are two drugs, that have had very limited anecdotal evidence of efficacy, are “game changers”. (The good news is that the State of New York is about to conduct a scientific trial to assess his belief but that again will take time). He reemphasizes that nowhere in the world have they seen such a response! He non stop traffics in unsubstantiated hope is spite of being told again and again that there is no objective evidence for his “beliefs”. The daily WhiteHouse Press conferences are a strange mixture of sanity from the experts and Trump’s off the cuff lay opinions on the management of the coronavirus directly imported from his campaign rallies.  

The NIH Director in Infectious Diseases, Dr. Fauci, agrees with the assessments and decisions of the Governors of California and New York. The former fears that twenty - five of his forty million population can become infected. The New York Governor Cuomo, like so many of his peers, has provided an object lesson in transparency thereby gaining confidence in his leadership. He has estimated that forty to eighty percent of population the State of New York might be infected. Governor Pritzker of Illinois, ordered a home stay of everyone and a closure of non essential businesses relatively early on not waiting to become an epicenter. 

On the positive side there is no doubt that, not withstanding Trump’s shrugging off his leadership role by baldly stating that he was not a shipping clerk for the States, since the involvement of Federal Emergency Management Agency, (FEMA), the Federal Government’s co operation and help to the States has been stepped up dramatically. The Governor of California couldn’t have been more laudatory with the promise of four field hospitals, (1000 beds), and supplies. 

CRITICISM OF TRUMP AND HIS RESPONSE

Trump faces  the constant criticism of not enough tests, masks and Personal Protective Equipment, (PPE) and ventilators. He  counters that there are millions of masks, PPE and  ventilators in the pipeline. He initially claimed that everyone who wanted a test could get one. Ventilators are  most crucial to prevent mortality as to have any chance to survive from  respiratory failure only a ventilator can tide a patient over.

Trump maintains that his response was “unprecedented”, that he has had “unprecedented” praise and doctors can’t believe what he has done. By closing down borders earlier than anyone else in the world he saved tens of thousands of lives. He repeats and repeats that line again and again. He wails that his action was criticized by sleepy Joe and the Democrats.  He omits to say that he had intelligence reports in January and February that warned of a pandemic while he was calling the Coronavirus crisis a Democratic hoax. He and his echo chamber, Fox News only ceased that smear ten days ago. He now claims that the Chinese hid the severity from him, “Our people didn’t have enough time” to prepare because of the Chinese  deception. But simultaneously and contradictorily he opines that his good friend Xi was doing a great job. Other countries in SE Asia weren't "deceived" neither was his other "good friend" Putin in Russia.

The crisp point remains if Trump really saw this as a pandemic on January 31, as he now retrospectively claims, why didn’t he prepare America for the onslaught? Instead he denied there was a problem till March 13, when he declared a National Emergency. Furthermore, his daily Press Conferences, are sounding more and more like Campaign rallies with the ritual abuse of the reporters. All is rosy he reassures and it is just a matter of time when America returns to the greatest economy in the world. Specifically the medical situation is under control.

 On the twentieth of March when all things were supposedly righting themselves and the shortages and ability to cope with the crisis was under control, the President of the America Medical Association, (AMA), sent a letter to her members which stated inter alia that she has conveyed to the  POTUS the single biggest thing you had on your minds, “WE NEED MORE PPE AND TEST KITS”, (The AMA President’s emphasis).

THE CHALLENGE THAT MAY FACE AMERICAN DOCTORS WITH  LACK OF ICUS AND VENTILATORS

 A massive ventilator shortage is the limiting factor in the successful  management of the respiratory failure that is the cause of Covid 19 mortality. Not surprisingly American hospitals are not geared for the volume of illness that  models project. There are according to the National Academy of Sciences a hundred thousand ICU beds, which would be equipped with ventilators. Governor Cuomo reports that under the rosiest scenario New York alone is short of  twenty thousand. He has managed to buy six thousand having scoured the world markets. In a study quoted in an article from FiveThirtyEight, Hennepin County in Minnesota given a twenty percent rate of serious cases would need forty - nine thousand extra beds in their hospitals. Those hospitals on any given day only have twenty - one vacant beds. These figures are calculated on the basis of only twenty percent of the Hennepin population being infected.

Should the above scenarios happen at once or the curve not be flattened then doctors would have to face the dilemma that Italian doctors have faced - who should live and who should die. This is a situation American doctors have never had to come to terms with before. Litigation, hospital policy and society have always left the decision up to the patient. If the patient hasn’t a Do Not Resuscitate Order on file or a Living Will as to what her wishes might be in such a situation the family may well decide that every effort should be made to keep an eight - eight year old with dementia and a previous stroke on life support. An ER doctor interviewed on television argued that there was no way that he could function in such a milieu unless guidelines were laid down and malpractice suspended. 

Other countries have had policies that have evolved over the years. For example whereas age may have been the parameter in the 19070’s now it is the physical and mental status of the patient. For example cancer may be an exclusion but the guidelines would have to be defined in America because slow growing prostate cancer and fourth stage lung cancer carry different prognoses entirely. This situation has to be hanging heavily over the decision makers in society. Jay H. Ell’s guess is that there will be no help from Trump’s administration - he will leave it up to each individual State.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

There is little doubt that the Trump’s Administration, notwithstanding Trump’s personality problems, have improved their act. However they are relying on the drivers of the response to be the local governments and society in general. The latter have their work cut out and all are praying for American ingenuity to deliver the goods someway or another. 

The Trump Administration together with Congress are addressing the financial disaster that this pandemic has evoked with far reaching proposals.

Whichever way this is looked at Trump himself will have a lot to answer for when the chaos dies down. He would not believe it but everyone is hoping that he is proven right that “Everything is under control” and that his “Unbelievable Medical Ability”, on the subject turns out to be life saving. 

 For the moment the best hope for society is isolation which again should be nationwide and not left up to the States. Trump should act. While a number of the States have fewer cases they are not following Illinois’s example of trying to keep it that way. Why are they waiting for  the inevitable to happen and then only move? The basis for this deadly strategy has to be they are expecting “the miracle”Trump hoped for.

THE CORONAVIRUS: TRUMP I, AMERICAN SOCIETY AND TRUMP II

There are two paradigms emerging from the current pandemic of COVID 19. These are epitomized by the outcomes in Singapore and Italy. In the former there were thirteen cases in January and six weeks later there were hundred and thirteen. In Italy there were three positives identified and within a few weeks it was ten thousand. In that period Singapore has had no deaths and Italy there are over a thousand.

One fact is for sure if America ends up with the Singapore model it will be in spite of Trump being Trump -  Trump 1. The latter has somewhat belatedly, without batting an eyelid, declared the Democratic hoax, a National Emergency,  thereby morphing into Trump 2.Then with more than more a little help from Nancy Pelosi he applied himself to the impact of the devastating medical crisis.

What precipitated this Damascus moment was the reality of the threat facing the country, and therefore his re - election chances.  All sections of society were responding to the crisis in spite of his reassurance and smears of "fake news". The pandemic was no longer about to become five “cases” it was, with virtually with no testing, two thousand one hundred victims.  

American society was not waiting for deluded Trump 1 to respond. Through its state and local governments, corporations, institutions and the leisure and entertainment sector it moved decisively to blunt the impact, to a Singapore scenario. As Panic spread like wildfire and the stores shelves emptied, Trump 1, with great pomp and circumstance   announced a National Emergency, “Two big words”, and became Trump 2.

 Within no time Italy had enough tests to identify their emergency and have ordered an almost complete shut down of the country. America had to date, with two months heads up, at most have done ten thousand tests which is less than the number they are doing in South Korea every day. Put another way for ever five tests per million population the US has effected South Korea has performed six hundred and ninety - two. 

TRUMP I - THE STABLE GENIUS WITH NATURAL MEDICAL ABILITY SHOWS A DAZZLING DISPLAY OF LACK OF LEADERSHIP.

Throughout Trump 1 has played down the impending threat creating a narrative which directly contradicts his scientific experts. The latter have had uphill from the word go sometimes openly contradicting him. As the numbers were being controlled by the lack of tests he initially claimed there were only fifteen "cases" and very soon there would be five. 

A persistent theme of his steady stream of consciousness was that flu was much more serious although he heard again and again that this virus was far more contagious and had at least ten times the mortality. To the angst that there was no vaccine he mislead by saying that one would be ready shortly. He nonchalantly countered as the numbers started climbing that a miracle was about to happen. 

He capped it all, literally, by a madcap visit to the Center of Disease Control, (CDC), wearing a Keep America Great campaign cap. There, to the embarrassment of his own experts and the astonishment of the CDC staff, he sounded off on his screwball theories that he said were due to his natural medical ability, which had been acknowledged by experts. Trump's erratic behavior exacerbated the crisis by his own criterion as to the financial well being of the country - the stock market. He had triggered a bear market and an impending recession. 

The time had come for damage control Trump needed to give an Oval Office address, which is utilized by Presidents in a crisis, to reassure and unite a terrified nation.

As Trump gave his eleven minute prepared address to the nation the Dow futures, indicating what investors were betting the stock market would open at the next morning, was prominently placed on the screen. At the joyous prospect that reassurance and an action plan would emanate from G-d’s gift to salesmanship the futures were optimistically up.  Focus slowly turned from the wooden President to the elephant at the bottom of the screen as each second passed by with his excruciating collection of mixed messages and lies. The market reflected the investors' lack of trust as the futures turned massively negative heralding a further ten percent drop of the market the next day - the highest in living memory. 

Of course the peak time audience viewing this were informed that this was a “foreign virus”, that he has acted with unprecedented foresight and his solution to the biological threat which has been maligned by the Democrats for political gain.  For the financial disaster that might follow in its wake it was not to bail out the most vulnerable but rather he would provide assistance to employers and those that are earning a regular salary.

THE RESPONSE TO THE OVAL OFFICE SPEECH

In his anger that followed the stock market reaction the blame game began and the usual suspect, Obama's Pesidency, was the cause of the unpreparednes. Then Trump lashed out at the CDC for their failure to not have a test ready, conveniently forgetting that the day before he had broadcast that anyone that wanted a test could get one. All this in the teeth of the of the fact that he had axed the pandemic office that Obama had created to forsee and cope with such a situation.

His image could not have been helped by the fact that he had spent the weekend at his golf resort with a now diagnosed Brazilian official. His refusal to acknowledge the danger was sharply contrasted by the behavior of his traveling echo chamber, including Lindsey Graham, most of whom went into voluntary quarantine. This on top of his fourth Chief of Staff who kicked off his stint by putting himself into voluntary isolation. His daughter Ivanka what is more self quarantined after being with the Australian Minister of Home Affairs who had also been diagnosed.

In the midst of growing disquiet Trump 2 finally acknowledged two days later that this was very serious and declared a National Emergency. 

HELP FROM HIS FRIENDS - FINANCIAL CRISIS (BETWEEN TRUMP 1 AND TRUMP 2)

Trump 1’s  initial request for just over two billion was upped by Congress to eight billion as he was hopelessly underfunding the emergency needs. Then, finally, Nancy Pelosi won through with the package to sustain those that would be hardest hit by the crisis, with paid sick leave, an increase in food stamps and subsidies to those that pay employees.  Trump 2, after lying to the media, that her Bill did not go far enough, tweeted his support.

Earlier  on sustained questioning from financial commentator Jim Cramer, Secretary Mnuchin reassured that there would be open lines of credit for business. The day earlier Congresswoman Porter forced the Head of the CDC, Robert Redfield, to use his emergency powers to guarantee that everyone who needed a viral test would not have to pay for the “privilege”. Federal Chair Powell had almost unprecedentedly acted by flooding the market with liquidity and by buying bonds. (By the way Trumps 1 and 2 were not satisfied as he expected the Federal Reserve to magically rid America of the virus with fiscal irresponsibility). 

To date his desire for a three trillion payroll tax cut has not happened. The Senate Republicans who had been not too happy period about the management to date have recoiled at the idea. 

HELP FROM HIS FRIENDS - MANAGEMENT OF THE CORONAVIRUS THREAT (BETWEEN TRUMP 1 AND TRUMP 2)

In spite of no leadership from the top America went into top gear to try and prevent an Italian scenario. With forty nine States having reported positive cases, twenty nine of their Governors were not waiting around for Trump to act and declared an Emergency before he did.  Most impressive were the leaders of the epicenters where a cluster of cases had occurred. Governor Inslee of Washington State, whom Trump 1 had called a snake, had the nightmare scenario of an outbreak in a nursing home. By the time Trump 2 emerged his state already had five hundred and thirty eight confirmed cases. He had shut the schools, got a waver to feed those who relied on school meals, to give them food at home. In addition he banned meetings with more than two hundred and fifty people. Governor Cuomo of New York where four hundred and twenty one citizens have tested positive has quarantined a one mile area where there was an epicenter of an outbreak. Massachusetts where there are a  hundred and twenty five positives up from fifteen on Thursday has also instituted drastic control measures. Governor Pritzker of Illinois, wasn’t standing around Waiting for Godot with forty six diagnosed,  shut the schools as well as the Casinos and like everyone else banned medium sized gatherings. 

Municipalities also closed down together with their abandoned airports. Public facilities that were shut, for example in Chicago, included  the Zoo, the Aquarium. the Art Institute, the Museums, Libraries, the Universties and Catholic Church Masses to mention some. Mass gatherings such as Saint Patrick Day Parades and a list of Conferences a page long, as Chicago is a convention center, were all cancelled. 

                                                                                        

Sports bodies nationally acted one after another Basketball, Ice Hockey and Soccer all called it quits and the annual College Men and Women’s Basketball championship events were likewise put to pastures. The Masters Golf tournament and Boston Marathon were postponed. Unless you live in the USA the enormity of these moves cannot be comprehended. Betting which is now legal on sports events left gamblers with their only available wager being as to who would win the Presidential elections. 

Corporations also delivered on social distancing with Apple, Amazon and Google for example instructing employees to work from home. They also forbade their employees' unnecessary travel. The bastions of the Financial world  the Chicago Board of Options and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange did likewise while the New York Stock Exchange made preperations. Universities across the country told their students not to return after spring break. And the list goes on and on. 

Earlier in the day Roche had announced their drive by test which was already being used in the States of New York in Colorado which had been given the go ahead by the FDA.

It was in this milieu -   where the public were in a panic state and pictures of empty shop shelves and long lines at the check outs flooding the internet;  Pence’s one million test kits were still in the mail; two thousand one hundred positive patients recorded; the Head of the World Organization declaring a pandemic and stating inter alia that some countries weren’t doing enough; that with what tests that were available the increase of positives was on track to copy the Italian experience and where experts were  screaming that the testing had been inexplicably delayed for nearly two months -  Trump 2 emerged with much fanfare.

TRUMP 2 ENTERS

The miracle that the frog, Trump 1, had predicted was not that the virus had vanished. Rather it turned out to be his emergence from coronavirus denial  and abracadabra he became a prince, Trump 2.

With his obsequious entourage in tow the newly retreaded Trump emerged from the WhiteHouse and announced the National Emergency which would allow him to cut red tape and move into top gear. (If that was the solution why wait till then?). He now had fifty billion dollars more to spend on the crisis, he explained. He paraded the CEO’s of Walgreens, CVS, Walmart and Target who were going to set up tents in their car parks for drive by testing. There would be various other the maneuvers to help the situation like students loan interest payments would be curtailed. 

Trump 2 achieved his life time dream of the stock market numbers going up  as he spoke. (He sent supporters signed copies of the share chart). In an answer to a questioner he stated that he took no responsibility for the mess and danger the country was in. The only buck that stops at Trump’s desk is one with an etching of George Washington on it with a 1 in each corner.

Trump 2 like Trump 1 believes he is omnipotent. He surrounds himself with viral positives at Mar - A - Lago. There are three reported since last weekend turning his retreat into the new epicenter. He may not go into quarantine but all his hangers on at his Southern WhiteHouse have gone into voluntary isolation. He carried on his care free attitude by shaking everyone’s hands at the WhiteHouse announcement. He needs to have someone read to him the CDC guidelines that he recommends.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Nobody knows what happened to the Vice President’s million tests let alone the four million that were to follow. Experts on TV stated that they still had no idea when the testing will start….

It has become almost a banal wasting of time fact checking the President but his false assertion that Google had over seventeen hundred engineers working on a Coronavirus website just cannot pass unnoticed. Google denied it the next day. Who can believe anything the President says - if the societal action is anything to go by - not many.

The fact that any progress had been achieved to date is thanks to the American society who had the good sense to ignore the Commander in Chief…

Once again it has been the career professionals, who have their jobs on a line, rather than the Administration political hacks and Republican legislators, who have lead the charge to inform the public.

EVERYONE DO THEIR BIT TO KEEP HEALTHY THEREBY KEEPING THEM AND THE COMMUNITY SAFE. 

BIDEN’S SUPER SUPER TUESDAY - NOW WHAT?

Within seventy - two hours the American political landscape changed dramatically. The whirlwind that was inextricably heading for a depressing toxic battle between populists Trump and Sanders, suddenly halted and all indications were that it would change direction. There were a number of factors that contributed to this abrupt transformation. With the fear of  coronavirus hanging over the country ignored for a weekend extending to Tuesday Joe Biden burst through the clouds and reset the Democratic Presidential nomination race. 

The question is how Biden who was on life support, abandoned by the establishment with no money, no advertising and having lost his first three races in depressing fashion was resuscitated ? In addition the enormity of Biden’s wins have not been fully followed through by the media who still want a horse race, After the first three contests Bernie was supposed to be a shoe in. Polls showed him competitive in South Carolina. Even after his slaughter in South Carolina, Super Tuesday was where Bernie was to build up a convincing lead of delegates. Pundits forecast if Biden could hold him to only a hundred and fifty delegates then he had a chance of catching up as the months rolled by. Instead Joe has the potential to end the marathon if the momentum holds.

One further introductory point what followed Biden’s triumphs was an incredible display of commitment and sacrifice by the other candidates, initially Buttigieg and Klobuchar then Bloomberg all dropping out of the race. The former throwing their full backing not to mention the latter’s resources, behind the former Vice President.

BIDEN’S NEAR MIRACLE RISING FROM THE ASHES BEGINS IN SOUTH CAROLINA

It was always likely that Biden was going to win South Carolina but the questions was by how much. The polls all showed the margin being less than ten percent. The billionaire Steyer had virtually taken up residence there gaining traction in the African American community. Pete Buttigieg tried his heart out to be heard by the key demographic while Bernie over four years, looking like a winner, had made what he thought was a breakthrough. It took the doyen of South Carolina politics, Jim Clyburn to give the electric shock that got the heart going into the Obama Vice President’s campaign. The result a walloping thirty percent victory for Joe “Who knows us and whom we know”. This endorsement will go down in the Guinness book of records as one of the most historic of all time, propelling Joe Biden into the fourteen State extravaganza just 60 hours later.

 The question was how he would fare. Was South Carolina a one off? 

Mike Bloomberg had run a highly sophisticated operation costing four hundred million. He had entered the race after Biden’s lack luster disastrous showing in Iowa to counter Bernie and was now about to participate. The Democratic Establishment had quietly pinned their hopes on him. Bloomberg played into Bernie’s mantra as he would now face the perfect foil, the oligarch, former the Mayor from New York, who was a metaphor for all that was wrong in America .On top of all of this Biden had not visited several of the Super Tuesday States and, had no offices in most with his presence in the local media being non est. As he left Charleston Buttigieg and Klobuchar were still in the race. He had sixty hours before voting began. To counter what momentum he could generate from Charleston the public admonition from his friend and savior Clyburn to “Get his campaign act together” had to be ringing in his ears. 

WHAT BIDEN FACED ON SUPER TUESDAY 

The one massive advantage of his shockingly large win in South Carolina besides the momentum that that engenders was that he became the center of the news cycle from then on. In the age of instantaneous communication social and traditional that is one colossal asset. While the formal media are always “In search of the truth” they have to sell space to survive. Everybody loves a “comeback kid” especially if he is the “underdog”. In addition Biden to those at home, in this day and age of populists and slick polished politicians, is not glib and is difficult to identify with the elites. He is one of us. In his Senate days he used to commute by train. He punctuates his points with inanities such as “Here’s the deal” and “Come on man”. What is even more important he was after all Obama’s Vice President for eight years. He has to be trustworthy if Barak thought so. There he joyously played second fiddle to the first African American President, who is still the most popular politician in the country today.

Fourteen States were up for grabs and Bernie looked headed for a commanding lead in delegates. He would sweep the North and West. He was ahead in delegate rich Texas and North Carolina and Virginia were toss ups The polls showed Obama’s second in command even though he had more campaign contributions had not enough time to spend them. He went to Alabama, Texas and California where he was way behind in the polls, One third had already voted  in California where Bennie had had field offices for the past four years, and was on the path for a clean sweep of nearly four hundred and fifty delegates. 

To add insult to injury Bloomberg felt he could win five contests, mostly in Joe’s territory in the South. (His campaign manager subsequently revealed that this was indeed the status. They had the most refined digital monitoring system in place. The latter had signaled however, before the voting had begun, that the world had changed post South Carolina to a place where Biden had regained not only his mojo but back to top of the Democratic heap).

BIDEN’S PERFECT STORM GETS STRONGER FOR SUPER TUESDAY

Then the perfect storm gathered even more clouds as popular young moderates Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar “suspended” their campaigns, endorsed him joining Texas’s favorite Democrat Beto O’ Rourke and the newly confident challenger Biden at a rally which was covered nation wide to a massive TV audience. 

The next day it all happened Biden swooped ten of the fourteen states. He ran the deck in the South. He convincingly won supposed marginal States, North Carolina and Virginia. He came from way behind to win Texas. But the cherry on the top was that he won three Northern States that his main rival thought he had in the bag, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Maine. Furthermore he grabbed some delegates in Vermont from Sanders. 

What makes Joe’s victory that much more amazing is that Sanders won Massachusetts and Maine in 2016. He also came with an ace of adding Minnesota to his tally against Hillary. To add to his woes he lost the MidWest State of Oklahoma which was in his column last Primary. Then the three Western States that he won all had assisted Sanders in that they afforded a long period in early voting. Colorado and Utah may have seen a Biden victory had Bloomberg not participated as well. Finally as the California vote continues the gap is narrowing and if the former Mayor of New York had been out of the race Biden would have clearly won in California. 

More significantly Biden’’s dominance in the key demographic of the Democratic Party, African Americans had increased to thirty four percent over the Vermont Senator. The  demographic that had won the 2018 elections for the Blue Party, namely suburban women, had come out for Joe in increasing numbers. Similarly those over forty five had increased their participation in his favor. The upshot of all this was record turnouts for Democratic Primaries but not where Bernie had promised - the youth who support him. His argument for electability over Biden had taken a hit.

AFTER SUPER TUESDAY’S BALL WAS OVER

The perfect storm developed even more menacingly over an embattled Trump floundering in the coronavirus crisis as Mayor Bloomberg “suspended” his contestant status. He had entered because Biden couldn’t win and now it was obvious he could. He consequently stood down for an “Old friend and great American”. His campaign manager made it quite clear that the organization they had built to defeat Trump would remain in place. Campaign laws forbade a direct transfer of assets to Biden. (G-d knows why they allow everything else). There is little doubt that one way or another the incredible resources including their information gathering will be available to Biden. Bernie doesn’t want them any way.

Sanders gave an hour long interview to Rachel Maddow in an attempt, Jay H. Ell assumes, to finally broaden his base. However he found it difficult to get his line straight. He argued he was running against the Democratic Establishment but just had featured an ad with the de facto head former President Barak Obama. He had forgotten that he sought to run against in an otherwise non existent Democratic Primary in 2012. He continued that his African American vote was increasing and he had made inroads although he had no statistics to back him up. When confronted as to why he had not even contacted the African American head honcho Jim Clyburn in South Carolina who was also the House of Representatives Chief Whip, he unbelievably replied - their politics differed!. When presented with the fact that the demographics that supported Biden had increased on Super Tuesday he lamely said he had not seen those numbers. He carried on with his theme that America wanted a revolution when all they wanted was to get rid of Trump, get cheaper universal healthcare and a fairer deal. 

Senator Warren pulled out of the race after adding a scholarly dimension to the debate. She not surprisingly didn’t endorse Sanders, at least not yet, She still has to have as an aspiration to heal the gulf between the two halves of the Party. It is sadly obvious that a woman challenger is still  not on the American body politic’s radar.

Alexandria Ocasio - Cotez, Sander’s most influential supporter, who kept his campaign alive during his heart attack, changed her position from that her and Biden should be in different Parties and pledged to support whoever the Party’s nominee might be.

Biden himself promised to be a uniter and not a divider. Echoing his former boss’s theme that there were no Red States or Blue States only the United States.

Trump went to overdrive in the tweet mode with two themes Bernie had been robbed by the Democratic Establishment and “Crooked Joe Biden and his son Hunter”. A theme that will replace “Crooked Hillary’s e mails”.The Senate Republican controlled Committee of Homeland Security are initiating an enquiry into the activities of the Biden’s in Ukraine. 

As California counting draws to a close Biden’s delegate lead extends to eighty. Not bad for someone who a less than a week ago was told that the best he could pray for was to keep Sanders lead to a one hundred and fifty  after Super Tuesday. If you add the numbers of Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Klobuchar’s they supplement Biden’s tally if it comes to it. Warren if she throws her lot with the Vermont Senator cannot match the latter three’s total.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

In March there are another nine hundred delegates at stake in the Primaries including delegate rich Southern States Florida, Mississippi, Missouri and Georgia where close on half of the action is. Here Biden should rack up the lead big time. In the Midwest where “The Burn” is pinning his hopes Ohio, Idaho and Michigan at best he may win narrowly. In the latter two he barely beat Hillary. With the Michigan Governor coming out in favor of Biden Jay H. Ell believes there will be more of the same. Arizona is a toss up so there may not be enough mileage either way and so it goes…

If Biden’s momentum continues racking up a big head of steam Bernie should get the hell out of the race otherwise he is nothing but a spoiler and it is dejavu all over again. He cannot be seriously thinking of a run in 2024!

The menacing coronavirus hangs all over this as Trump’s distortions become more and more obvious with the reality to the world around them. On that note Trump should get the message that large rallies don’t translate into the popular vote. They merely entertain the converted.

Only Biden stands in the way of Biden. Finally humility has replaced hubris. If he just hangs in there the choice won’t be between two populists anymore.