TRUMP AND SANDERS AND THE US POLITICAL SYSTEM

The Senate cover up impeachment trial of Donald J. Trump being all over bar the shouting it is time to move on to the crucial Democratic Presidential nomination process. In this phase of the political crisis that America is facing the over riding factor as to whether Trump will be re elected or not, is who the Democratic nominee will be. 

As more and more revelations of Trump’s perfidy on Ukraine become evident the President will carry on his denial mode while the Republicans, particularly in the purple states, will stutter and stammer their incoherent rationalizations in the hope that Trump will win and drag them over the line on his coat tails. 

In the 2020 Presidential election two populists, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are once again in the forefront of the Republican and Democratic Party nomination contests. While incumbent Trump has a lock on the Republican Party nomination the same cannot be said of Sanders. The rarely mentioned significance of all of this is that neither were or have been flag bearing carriers of the respective parties they were campaigning to lead. Each joined their respective parties for the purpose of running for President. The prospects of Bernie, who to this day is an Independent member of a Senate, is  particularly significant to the Democratic Primary voters whose number one priority in choosing a nominee is their chances of ousting the POTUS. The fact that he is once again in the running has raised alarm bells amongst Democrats and their establishment for reasons that will be set out below.

All this begs the question as to how on earth these “outsiders” have taken over the political landscape of America. The answer is multifactorial but principally lies in the ease in which anyone can assume the mantle of one of the major parties without any insider support or commitment to what their accepted policy program is. For an activist it has to be a more attractive option to become a candidate of one of the major parties as opposed to run as an Independent. For practical purposes a third party candidate has no chance of victory in an open election. In addition there is no hindrance to your supporters voting for you in the Presidential Primaries of the Party. They just have to declare themselves a Democrat or a Republican and vote in the Primary! 

HOW YOU CAN BECOME A CANDIDATE - THEN AND NOW

While the Primary electoral process is open to all voters  participation in the Primaries is far lower than in the General Election. Hence the supporters of the activist candidate, who are inevitably committed and more often not card carrying members of the party, can have a far greater impact on their nominee’s chances than their raw numbers might suggest. A recent oft quoted example is Alexander Ocasio - Cortez who won her Primary in a strongly Democratic Constituency with eleven percent of the vote.

A circumstance exploited by both Sanders and Trump in 2016 is that both of them were running against several conventional Party Members whose combined vote was overwhelmingly higher than theirs in the beginning stages. Though in 2016 Sanders was roundly beaten by Clinton the process took long enough for him to make an impact. Even at the nominating convention, again open to all, he didn’t make any meaningful attempt to shut his supporters up and rally them around Hillary. 

Both Trump and Sanders are highly articulate populists who have connected with different aspirations of sectors of the electorate. Jay H. Ell is wary of populists because as as Jonathan Sacks the theologian and philosopher has maintained - those on the right promise to return to a past that never was while those on the left offer a future that never can be. In fairness to Sanders he has had the same set of convictions that he has articulated for fifty years. Trump is merely a blatant opportunist with no principles or coherent policy whatsoever. It is fair comment that neither of these two would have had a realistic chance of winning the Presidency if they had run as Independents.

 SANDERS REJOINS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY FOR THE 2020 ELECTION

Donald Trump won the Republican nomination and subsequently the Presidency. The other interim Democrat, Bernie Sanders, did a hatchet job in the Democratic Primary of the subsequent nominee Hillary Clinton. For practical purposes Clinton lost the Presidency to Donald Trump by seventy - thousand votes.Those voters were from the white working class voters that had been the backbone of the Democratic Party for generations. Donald J. Trump’s attack on Clinton was a continuation of Sander’s mantra, that she had abandoned, with the political establishment, the working class electorate. 

Both Trump and Sanders would not have had the exposure of endless televised primary debates thereby providing them with publicity and more significantly the mantra and the imprimateur of one of the two major Parties. Trump for all his boast about being self financing would not have had the vast Republican machinery and fund raising ability to push him over the top in the electoral college, in his Presidential bid had he run as an Independent. 

SANDERS IS AT IT AGAIN

Sander’s is once again the most destructive aspirant in the Democratic Presidential Primary Contest. This time round the principle recipient of his invective is Joseph Biden the probable Democratic nominee. This negative behavior he shares with Trump who recognizes that Biden, could well beat him in 2020. Trump was impeached for his actions in using his position to try and extort the Ukrainian President to provide dirt on Biden. Trump tweets that Sanders is being treated unfairly by the Democratic establishment.

 Sander's position on Democrat radical, Elizabeth Warren, who is his competition for the left of the party is that a woman cannot win the Presidency. Joni Ernst, Republican Senator for Iowa where the first Primary is to take place said that wait and see what is going to happen to Biden in the Iowa Primary as a result of being smeared in Trump’s Impeachment Senate trial. 

All this is happening at a time when conventional wisdom maintains that the one factor that Donald Trump could have going for him in 2020, is a weak Democratic candidate. Sanders would fit that bill as in polls he is no longer statistically ahead of Trump. Furthermore he doesn’t have to be smeared that he is a socialist, he is one. His Health Care Policy which would force over a one hundred and fifty million off their current insurance is not popular. This instead of opting for a public policy offering care to those who currently haven’t got coverage. 

LEFT WING POPULISTS ARE NO LONGER ELECTABLE

In most Western democracies where there are two party systems each party has a set of principles and policies that those that members must accept before they can join let alone be representative candidates. In the United Kingdom the Parliamentary system upon which the American democracy is based on you would be thrown out if you run against the Party agenda against members, who adhere to them.

 For better or worse the left wing populists don’t stand a ghost of a chance against the right wing populists as is evidenced throughout the world. The pure economic arguments no longer hold as was shown in the Brexit decision in the UK and the recent thrashing the Labour Party received in the British election last month. So in a field of fourteen candidates Sanders has a devout following this time round of about fifteen to twenty percent of the electorate. That is enough to keep him al least at number two because the dozen of other Democrats inevitably will all be in single digit figures.

There is no doubt that most of the Democratic base will vote for whoever the party nominee is. However will Sanders keep those suburban Republicans and workers that switched in 2018? On the key domestic issue health care  his plan, whether it is the most rational or not has not public support. 

Sanders has not adapted to the identity politics that have plagued the world of late. Sanders who has been around for decades has no following among the African American community. He genuinely believes that the economic issues he espouses are universal and is perceived not to value the African Americans’ unique problems. Now no Democratic contender can win the Presidency without a full turn out of the African American community. In addition they don’t identify with the “Socialist” cause which is being championed by progressive youth who make up the bulk of Bernie’s backing. Also Trump could once again rally a maximum turn out running against a self confessed Socialist. 

WHAT TYPE OF CANDIDATE CAN BEAT TRUMP?

The top priority amongst the majority of Democratic voters is the nominee who has the best chance against Trump. With this in mind, the Democratic contenders have been remarkably restrained in attacking their opponent contenders as they know one of them will have to run against Trump. The stark exception is Bernie and if the Hillary precedent is anything to go by these criticisms will intensify as the Democratic Primary progresses. Sanders is a populist in the true sense of the word, has name recognition and is a formidable opponent in a Primary where only the truly involved pitch up to vote. Jay H. Ell does not believe, that Sanders will win the nomination, as he appears to have a ceiling of support, but will he once again play a spoiler role?

Biden, who has the best chance by far to beat Trump is not the most inspiring of candidates. This fact has brought two Democratic billionaires into the field that have hopelessly outspent their rivals. It is however interesting to note that neither Steyger nor Bloomberg ever attack Democrat hopefuls in their ads. They focus on the disaster of the Trump Presidency and the existential crisis it creates, then they go on to argue that they would make the best President. It appears that Bloomberg’s strategy is geared to step in with a vengeance if Biden falters in the first four Primaries. 

DEMOCRATIC FEARS - HILLARY SPEAKS OUT.

It is open secret that the Democratic Establishment are terrified of a Sanders victory. There are even leaked stories that if there is a real likelihood then Obama will step in and throw his weight behind whoever has the best chance of beating him. Hillary Clinton has already had an interview leaked which recalls the harsh criticism she withstood from Sanders last time out. She stated that he is a loner and in a half century of Government he has formed very few coalitions with any group of legislators. He has authored very little legislation and what he has relates mainly to trivia such as the naming of a building. An exasperated Clinton exclaimed, “Nobody in the Senate likes him”.

Jay H. Ell believes that Sanders won’t win the nomination but he fears that Biden in some ways is an even weaker candidate than Clinton and he may not able to cope with the hammering that Sanders may give him.  

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

While much can happen between now and November as Trump faces all sorts of jeopardy he will start as favorite for a second term. This fact will be accentuated particularly if the Democratic candidate cannot put together its traditional coalition of backers including those former displaced Midwest Union workers that Trump garnered in 2016. 

The Democratic Primaries still have to play out so it is too early to say who might emerge as the nominee. The candidates need to show appropriate restraint because the ultimate objective is removing Trump. The temptation to cannabalise one another has to be resisted. 

One fact is for sure the American Party system does not lend itself to Party cohesion making it in these unstable volatile times ripe for take over, as has already happened to the Republican Party with disastrous results for America and the world.