POPULISTS TRUMP OR SANDERS - A CERTAINTY?

Bernie Sanders has become the clear Democratic frontrunner. He promises cost free everything as well as a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions withIn a short while. His argument is that taxes on the rich will pay for it all while conceding that everyone earning over twenty - nine thousand dollars will also have to sustain a tax increase. Should he emerge victorious from the Democratic Primary, the country will find itself in a lose -  lose situation. If Trump wins American democracy as envisaged in the Constitution, is dead. In the unlikely event that Sanders triumphs the electorate will become even more disillusioned as there is no way he can deliver on any of his manifesto. Obama had a far more realistic approach to change and at the end of the long day achieved a significant Health Care improvement which exhausted his political capitol.  

When confronted on 60 Minutes as to how much his agenda would cost and how he would pay for it Bernie became irritated as he frequently does. It was obvious he hadn’t a clue. It is estimated that his health care proposal alone will cost thirty trillion over ten years and his bundle of commitments sixty billion dollars, which is three times the yearly sum spent on everything in the whole American economy. 

The only hope is a Hail Mary in the Democratic Primary. There are two possibilities, Vice President Biden and Former New York Mayor Bloomberg. The former is basking from an endorsement from the father of the Democratic Party in South Carolina, Jim Clyburn and an outstanding debate performance. Biden is the one that Trump is so terrified of that he went into an elaborate scheme, which got him impeached, to get dirt on him from a foreign government. 

It is an irony that the billionaire Bloomberg is exploiting the fact that a political candidate can receive or spend as much of his own money as he wishes. It would be poetic justice if he sinks the GOP after they had successfully backed the Supreme Court decision that ruled that money was equivalent to free speech!

POPULISM AMERICAN STYLE

 Currently the front runners for the Presidential Election, Republican, Donald J. Trump and Democratic, Bernie Sanders are both populists. Both make their appeal to those whom they perceive have been victimized by the “elites”. Both of them make no attempt to appeal to voters other than their target audiences in the belief that their turnout will guarantee their election. It is their way or the high way. 

Of course  populists are of differing political bents and appeal to differing constituencies. Simply put Trump is a right wing populist favoring authoritarianism and Bernie is, in the American context, way out left, but a declared constitutionalist. Inevitably they are demagogues who attract vast crowds and cult like followings. They are strong on rhetoric and promises and weak on how their extravagant agendas are going to get paid for or carried out.  A feature of their approach includes never ever apologizing.  However, Trump is the incumbent with a big advantage over Sanders. 

The assessment of  philosopher and theologian Jonathan Sacks keeps coming back to mind - that right wing populists promise a past that never was and those on the left, a utopia that can never be.

TRUMP WON AS A POPULIST -  CAN BERNIE?

It goes without saying that Donald Trump proved the populist theory right in 2016 with the help of an electoral college that was not representative of the majority vote, the Russian interference and James Comey. The latter broke every unwritten rule in the FBI book by announcing, close to election day, that Hillary was once again to be investigated for her e mails and neglecting to add that an investigation had begun into Trump’s campaign. Clinton has detailed how her numbers went South after that. Trump also benefited from Clinton’s hubris when she failed to visit crucial swing states that narrowly lost her the electoral college. Clinton has reiterated that Bernie never really rallied for her fully which added to her woes.  But it is what it is and look who is President now!

Now Bernie has none of these advantages and the question remains can he overcome a President who is on a roll and who is being assisted by an Attorney General who is helping him through the power of the Justice Department?

Jay H. Ell believes, like Trump and the Russians, that Sanders is unlikely to defeat Trump. 

WHY BERNIE IS UNLIKELY TO BEAT TRUMP

So why can’t Bernie win? He like Trump is benefitting from a packed Primary field. Consequently he is able to lead nationally with less than thirty percent of the Democratic vote - the Quinnipiac poll has him at twenty - five percent. No other candidate in the Democratic Primary is a “socialist" populist, all the others to a lesser or greater extent are varying degrees of left of center so he has that lane to himself. Although he has aced all three Primaries to date he has done so with at least ten percent less of the Democratic Primary voters than he did last time out. 

The fact that Sanders is the Democratic frontrunner when current polls indicate that seventy percent of the electorate declared they would not vote for a socialist is as a result of the bizarre lax American Party system as detailed by Jay H. Ell in his blog of February 1, 2020 - “Trump and Sanders and the US Political System”. 

Assuming that the Democratic base hang in with Sanders, regardless of their feelings about the candidate’s “socialism”, like the Republicans did with Trump, how much better can he do than Hillary? He is not promising to bring back the factories or mining jobs. Will those who switched to the Democrats in 2018 stay with Sanders? What has he said to the Republican suburbia that will keep them in the fold? Polls indicate that the latter are "very uncomfortable" with him. 

Bernie will attempt to convert health coverage to a single universal payer system.  However obscene the current system is, the certainty that one hundred and fifty million have with the current insurance will weigh heavily on them. Even Obamacare because of the perceived threat to the private insurance constituency cost Obama two legislative defeats. Then he has promised to wipe out student College loans - the College educated vote Democrat anyway. He will get rid of all fossil fuels including gas and nuclear energy. The latter are seen as interim even by the climate change enthusiasts and the move to them from coal and oil has resulted in a measurable decrease in the American carbon footprint over the past few years. 

Sanders when confronted with the numbers that indicate that over two thirds of Americans wouldn’t vote for a Socialist stated the same polls had him leading the field. He omitted to say the Democratic field with twenty - seven percent. No statement about consensus or coalition building was added to his counter. It doesn’t fuzz Bernie that at this early stage the down ballot Democratic legislators are already dissociating from him. He Just addresses his “Brothers and Sisters”.

HOW TO TRY AND STOP A TRUMP SECOND TERM

Joe Biden is the favorite of the Democratic faithfuls. He is finally finding his old fire and passion. A strong win in South Carolina, which appears on the cards, will give him a boost for Super Tuesday where close on thirty percent of the delegates are up for grabs. Even though Biden has no resources to speak of his name recognition is enough to make him competitive. He has experience in spades, the Obama connection and minority support.  Importantly, he has had connections to labor in the Mid West where the Presidential election was decided last time. But the youth are switched off as they are for Bernie and to a much lesser extent Mayor Pete. A major argument put forward by Jim Clyburn, who is also Majority House Whip, was that only Biden could ensure a down ticket victory thereby ensuring the House remaining and the Senate reverting Democratic. 

 If Biden doesn’t deliver then the last hope will be Mayor Bloomberg who is also in with a long shot. Some Democrats will have to swallow hard to support Mayor Bloomberg due to his former Republican involvement and some of his earlier policies as Mayor.

Joe Lockhart one of Bill Clinton’s Press Secretaries has exhorted the former New York Mayor to get stuck into Sanders, “like five minutes ago”. His belief is that Bloomberg has the only chance to represent the “moderate” wing. Bloomberg is joint second to Sanders in the Democratic national polls at the moment. Despite party reservations the upside is that he has taken the lead in the fight for gun control, is in the forefront in the climate change debate and is not an authoritarian. His attributes, management skills, and a coalition forming history, are countered by a checkered record. But his baggage is carry on compared to Trump’s suitcases. 

Lockhart has advised Bloomberg to spend his next four hundred million running against Sanders. Most importantly in this context he has the resources and infrastructure to challenge Sanders and then Trump. As Lockhart points out this may hurt Bloomberg and let another moderate candidate in - so what. It might also provide fodder for Trump if Bloomberg’s attack fails and Sanders wins the nomination. But that won’t hassle Sanders who publicly announced he is running against both the Republican and Democratic  “establishments” anyway. Also Bloomberg has pledged to leave his infrastructure in place for whomever wins the nomination. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Bernie at best represents thirty percent of the Democratic Party while the others between them number about seventy percent. By creeping paralysis and the way the party system works the odds are that he will win the nomination. By the end of March this contest will be all over bar the shouting. As the process continues not everyone will drop out and like Trump he will be the last man standing.

Jay H. Ell has seen this movie before when in the 2016 Republican Primary the other candidates were scared to take Trump on fully and frontally. So to pussyfoot around won’t stop Sanders. At least the candidates gave Sanders a full go at the Charleston debate. Bloomberg must change his million dollar ads from looking Presidential to attacking Sanders.

It is interesting to note that Sanders now opposes the involvement of seven hundred Democratic Super delegates who will participate in deciding who the nominee should be if no candidate gets fifty percent of the delegates on the first vote. Bernie is forgetting that this mechanism was heavily supported by him as he dragged the nomination fight on till July 2016 claiming it could not be over till they had had their say.

As the world moves right wing and nationalistic it is in only one election, Macron in France, where a left wing populist beaten a right wing populist. 

One thing is for certain after South Carolina, Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Steyger, as impressive as they are, need to get out of this race. If Biden is way ahead of Bloomberg on Super Tuesday the Mayor needs to call it quits and get behind Biden.  Elizabeth Warren has declared herself in for the duration. Her objective may be with her delegates to be the King Maker at what could be heading for a deciding convention.

But let Trump have the last word following the last contest, “Looks like Crazy Bernie is doing well in the Great State of Nevada. Biden and the rest look weak and no way Mini Mike can restart his campaign after the worst debate performance in the history of Presidential Debates. Congratulations Bernie and don’t let them take that away from you”.