The forever unpredictable POTUS dramatically and unimaginably changed the Middle East’s narrative by ordering the killing of the number two in the Iranian hierarchy, who was the Commander in Chief of its elite force the Quds. Qasem Suleimani was a central figure in the Middle East who had fashioned and integrated the Shia coalition by supporting terrorist groups and backing the rogue Assad. Iran appears to already making good on its threat to retaliate with missile strikes on US bases.
The American action has changed so many dynamics that it is difficult to know where to start. A good place would be that there is one fact that everyone agrees on, namely that Qasem Suleimani was one bad bad actor whose infamy was counterbalanced by his cult like following across the Middle East from Syria to Yemen. In Iran he was considered to be the successor to Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Another unchallengeable outcome of the executive action was that, for a few days Trump’s impeachment was bumped off prime time. This was particularly significant as the ante had just been upped up by the intimations by three Republican Senators that they were open to having witnesses testify at his Senate trial. John Bolton’s availability as a witness added fuel to that fire. The possibility of witnesses became that more significant with the publication of communications between the WhiteHouse and the Pentagon which directly implicated the President with holding up the Congress mandated funds to Ukraine. Also there were e mails being withheld that proved that senior members of the POTUS’S administration beseeched him not to deny a desperate ally’s aid.
The most significant sequel to Trump’s action is that, overnight, America’s position and reputation in the Middle East hit rock bottom and Iran’s assumed a new respectability.
BACKGROUND TO TRUMP’S ACTION
The drama is being played to the background of Trump having campaigned forcibly that he was against Bush’s Iraqi war, was going to withdraw all American forces from the world and his Presidency would not involve itself in the futile, endless, costly wars that go nowhere. He is now sending an aditional three thousand five hundred service men to the Middle East to cope with the fall out of his hit on Suleimani.
What is haunting Trump is the endless replaying of his interviews and tweets in 2011 where he maintained that the only path for Obama’s re election was if he declared war against Iran. Steve Schmidt the former GOP operative, who worked on the campaigns of George W. Bush and John McCain is openly arguing that the Suleimani execution was to serve Trump’s internal political agenda. Also it was being reported that George W. Bush, Barak Obama and Israel’s Mossad all ruled out eliminating Suleimani because of the risks that it involved. Adding to the POTUS’S New Year woes are that his newest best friend who he professes to love, North Korea’s Kim Jun Un, has threatened missiles because Trump has not lessened sanctions on the North Korea.
Then of course there is the minefield of legal woes back in America…….
HISTORY WILL DECIDE BUT FOR THE MOMENT IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
In truth the outcome of Trump’s actions are uncertain and history will decide. However the immediate signs are that he has landed himself and America in one big mess and in characteristic style he is just upping the ante. There are three arenas which bear examining - Iran itself, the domestic scene including Trump’s future and the Middle East in general. Hanging over all these three now is the threat of war - typical and atypical - that could follow from the elimination of the equivalent of the American Vice President and its Chief of Armed Forces rolled into one.
THE DOMESTIC SCENE
Anonymous reports from the WhiteHouse indicate that officials were flabbergasted when Trump chose the option of a hit on Iran’s number two as an answer to the killing of a US contractor and a protest on the American Embassy. Trump had to believe that the Democrats would dare not attack his decision. This was a matter of National Security after all. While there was the predictable partisan split, Fox News’s Tucker Carlson reminded all that America needed this type of meddling like a hole in the head implicitly criticizing the POTUS and reminding him of what he ran on. The Democratic Presidential candidates have not held back and Biden’s response has been very Presidential.
What adds to the bad optics is that he never, as custom dictates, informed the “Gang of Eight”, the majority and minority leaders of both parties in both houses of the forthcoming action. He did however share the impending attack on Suleimani with those holidaying at his club Mar a Lago and Lindsey Graham. When he finally sent formal acknowledgment of his action to Congress he classified the whole document. The fact that the Democrats were unconvinced of his reasons was evident when Pelosi claimed that his notification raised more questions than it answered.
Meanwhile mixed GOP strategies were flying around about impeachment. Trump and McConnell were at odds on tactics. The former screaming at Pelosi for not sending over the articles of impeachment and the latter stating that he doesn’t care if she never sends them. Adding to the confusion was Lindsey Graham who, reflecting his Master’s Voice, told McConnell to proceed without them. Graham believed, having stated earlier that he did not bother to read the transcripts of the House Hearings, that the Senate knew enough to acquit Trump now.
None of this will fly very well as seventy- three percent of the electorate believe that there should be a trial with witnesses. Speaker Pelosi for her part appeared in no hurry to make a decision but she is savvy enough to know that this cannot go on forever. She will probably send them across when the Republicans have made it even clearer that they will turn the solemn constitutional question into a farce. McConnell like Trump has no shame.
MEANWHILE BACK IN IRAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Suleimani had two funeral ceremonies when in Baghdad and the other in Teheran which were attended by hundreds of thousands of angry mourners. There was such a crush that fifty died and hundreds were injured. The burial had to be postponed because the crowds, who were screaming revenge and death to America and Israel, were too dense to allow the funeral to proceed. Perhaps the mood in the streets was best summed up by the fact that in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq just a few days previously there were protests against Iran now they are directed at America.
The Iranian Supreme Commander vowed revenge. Trump tweeted that he would have the full might of the US military on his head if he attempted to respond to the American move which he claimed was an attempt to prevent war. Iran countered that America had declared war by its action. Trump threatened destroying fifty - two Iranian cultural sites, (a war crime), the Ayatollah’s dignified reply was that he would only strike at American military sites, while announcing that Iran would restart its nuclear program. Trump ran into more trouble when his Secretary of Defense stated that he would not commit war crimes.
The Iraqi parliament asked Trump to withdraw America troops from their soil. This really hurt as America has spent billions of dollars in an attempt at effecting regime change. Since 2003 close on five thousand troops have succumbed while protecting American and Iraqi interests, The Iraqi parliament voted on the resolution and expressed fury on this assault on their sovereign soil. Again the American response was chaotic and uncoordinated, the American Military Commander on the ground respecting the Iraqi decision stated he was preparing to move with Trump and his Secretary of State saying “no way”.
Trump had already issued an order that every American civilian leave Iraq by the next flight while at the same time sending another three thousand five hundred soldiers into the country. He further threatened Iraq with sanctions if they threw American forces out. Sanctions he said that would be far worse than those of Iran! The US then closed its training mission in Iraq as a result of stepped up rocket attacks from the Iranian backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon. Whether related or not the Iranian backed terror group in Kenya, Al - Shabaab, murdered three Americans. The latest in the escalation is missile attacks on two American bases with no apparent casualties.
Meanwhile America's Sunni allies, the Saudis and Arab Gulf States, remained mum. The latter are anxious not to create waves. The Saudis in fact had given a pass to the fact that their major oil installation had been struck by a missile which everyone knew came from Iran.
Bibi Netanyahu was the only world leader to say hoorah. He is also the only world leader in as big a legal boondoggle as Trump. Jay H. Ell is quite sure that his message is not what his Security apparatus is saying, they had already intimated that the Iranians were sticking to the nuclear deal.
It is not unreasonable to conclude that Trump’s original aim to abandon the Middle East might be the plausible way to go at the moment.
AMERICA’S ALLIES
Secretary Pompeo complained that America was getting no support from its traditional allies. One wonders if he was serious. Even George W. Bush took the trouble to assemble a large number of allies, albeit under false pretenses, before invading Iraq back in 2003. The best the UK, France and the like can offer at the moment is that they counsel caution.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
One wonders how much longer the Republicans will prop up this out of control POTUS before he starts WW 111 and ruins what is left of America’s reputation. They have an opportunity, on legitimate grounds, to dump him quickly for abusing his power and obstruction of justice. Just promise a trial with witnesses and Nancy Pelosi will oblige with sending over the Articles of Impeachment first thing the next morning.
It has to be of cause for concern for the Republicans that the leader of their party has been accused three times for conducting American foreign policy for his personal gain. Firstly, there is Ukraine, the basis for impeachment. Secondly, his bizarre policy where he gave Turkey the go ahead to invade Syria thus selling out America’s long time allies the Kurds, which was explained by his former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, as putting his business interests ahead of American security. Finally, the Suleimani hit is being openly attributed as a diversionary tactic from his domestic plight.
It is fair to argue that so far the benefits of ridding the world of Suleimani have been far outweighed by the disadvantages. Iran has tentacles and proxies all over the Middle East to retaliate.
What sticks in the crawl most is the fact that Iran, who operate an oppressive racist and terrorist regime are in a position to hold the high ground. They are accusing the US of war crimes - by threatening to attack cultural sites, crimes against humanity - by threatening to induce starvation conditions by sanctions and finally of murder of a foreign leader on foreign soil. The Iranian Foreign Minister can now pontificate as to how they can restore the international nuclear deal if those that broke it return. Meanwhile they claim that they are within their rights increasing centrifuges till adherence is returned to.
Pelosi should get a resolution passed in the House reminding Trump of the War Powers Act and that he cannot go to war without Congress’s permission. It will be interesting to note whether McConnell will put it to the vote on the Senate floor…….
One fact is for certain that the world is a more dangerous place than it was a week ago - not safer as Trump, Pompeo and Fox News are maintaining!
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