CAN TRUMP BE DEFEATED IN 2020?

Preventing Trump from having a second term is the hope and prayer of well over fifty percent of Americans. His forty percent cult have little doubt that he is unassailable, some even invoking his ascension to the Presidency as G-d's will. The Republican legislators terrified of Primary challenges where only the base, (Trump’s soldiers), pitch up are stultifying any criticism in the belief they will be dragged over the 2020 finish line hanging onto his coat tails. 

Two paradigms are in operation in assessing his chances - each one arriving at an opposite conclusion. Both assume that he will survive the bumpy ride that awaits him between now and November 2020. Jay H. Ell believes that Trump’s re election needs an even bigger perfect storm that allowed him to swagger and stagger through his business life with its three bankruptcies, win the Republican Party nomination and then the Presidency. 

So let’s examine, Why Trump Can’t Lose, Why Trump Can’t Win and What Can Happen Between Now and November 2020.

WHY TRUMP CAN’T LOSE

There are a number of factors that contribute to the optimism of the Trump cult. These include the socio - economic upheaval that heralded his surprise election in the first place, the present economic climate, the vast financial and organizational resources he has at his disposal and the fact his base support remains rock solid. Added to this is the fact that incumbents rarely are defeated. Furthemore Trump  is mounting the same smear tactics that he successfully utilized to win him both the Republican nomination and the Presidency. This time around he is operating with the pulpit and the infrastructure of his Presidency. His administration including the Attorney General and other Cabinet Ministers are assisting him in trashing his political opponents and his claim that he is above the law. There is also every reason to believe that once again he will receive foreign assistance in his endeavor. 

Trump by the numbers.

This is the parameter that really matters. As indicated Trump’s approval is still close to where it always was and it is about seven to eight percent below his vote share in 2016. The most significant statistic that he has to reassure him is how those that make a living from betting, the oddsmakers, rate his chances. At best, nearly a year out, one can only win one dollar for every dollar wagered on backing Trump as the victor. His probable Democratic rival Joe Biden, has the generous odds of five dollars for one. While these odds will obviously change when the Democrats finally elect a nominee there is little doubt who those make a living from who becomes President will keep The Donald as favorite. 

Has Trump delivered on his campaign social,  political, identity and economic promises ?

Donald Trump was elected on a wave of populism which was fueled by disgust and disillusionment of all politicians of all parties who had failed to shelter them from the internet/information/service revolution and a global economy which saw what manufacturing jobs that were still left being outsourced to South East Asia. Both major parties were perceived to have protected the elites at the expense of the victims. Those who had been responsible for a major economic recession in 2008 to add insult to injury emerged from the carnage with massive pay outs. In addition Trump claimed that the economic plight was exacerbated by immigration which he would stop. 

He has come up trumps on his social agenda which incidentally is at total odds with his previous convictions and his personal behavior. Most significantly with the help of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell he has appointed a record one hundred and eighty - three Judges to the Federal Bench, including two to the Supreme Court giving the latter a clear conservative majority. He is now an anti abortion protagonist and he has selected judges with this in mind. 

Then with all the accompanying opprobrium and breaking every immigration law on the books he has all but halted immigration including vast numbers who are seeking asylum on the border. His Muslim ban was watered down but was passed by the Supreme Court. He claims he has built his white elephant border wall and as his sycophants swallow anything he says so that too deserves a tick in the column. 

On foreign policy he signaled on the trail that it would "be good" if America became friends with Russia - well he has brought home the bacon on that one! His record on pulling out of all wars is spotty to say the least. The fact that he has abandoned our allies in favor of those who appear to have business interests with him and/or are run by authoritarians is not high up on the list of priorities of his camp.

With regard to the economy the POTUS can brag that unemployment has never been lower, the stock markets have never been higher and there is little inflation. His efforts to eradicate Obamacare have been partially successful but he has not introduced anything in its place.

All in all Trump can argue that he has delivered, his strongest pointers are the economy and stopping illegal and legal immigration at the border. If nothing else he is created a clear cut identity for white America to connect with.
He will forcefully maintain by so doing he has Made America Great Again.

WHY TRUMP CANNOT WIN

 Trump by the numbers.

While much fuss is made that his base has remained in tact that is only forty percent of the electorate not the near forty - eight percent that he landed in 2016. This eight percent difference between Trump’s election numbers has shown to be significant in a large number of electoral reverses that the Republicans have sustained in the midterms in State and Federal elections. The Democratic majority in votes in the 2018 midterms was eight million compared to Hillary Clinton’s three million advantage. It could be argued that Trump was not on the ballot but he ran around the country putting himself on it begging the electorate to vote Republican for him. What has to more scary for the POTUS are the results of the Governorships in States that he carried by over twenty percent, Louisiana and Mitch McConnell’s Kentucky. There he beseeched, in vain, the electorate to vote for the Republican stating that if the Democrats won he would be embarrassed, and embarrassed he was.

Poll numbers in the Mid West States that put Trump over the top in the Electoral College currently show Trump under water. Every national poll puts Biden ahead of him by eight to twelve percent.

So not withstanding the odds makers’ convictions Trump has his work cut out if the numbers are spun this way.

Has Trump delivered on his social,  political, identity and economic promises ?

Trump’s promise to reverse economic history has failed. No coal mines have been reopened nor have factories returned from Mexico and China. His tax cuts hardly touched his electorate, as the hourly wage has barely nudged ahead.  This is the principle reason why there is no inflation because the job market has irreversibly become global. No - one in this day and age has job security. 

Trump’s erratic trade policies have pushed up the prices of certain items. Farmers have been hit as the compensation package Trump introduced for the damage to their sales caused by his sanctions is not being distributed equitably. What the tax cuts for the rich resulted in is the largest national deficit in American history. This has to further alienate any real fiscal Republicans that still may be left in the Party.

Trump’s cruel immigration policies may have satisfied most of his base but they are considered to be one of the principle reasons that the white Republican women in the suburbs revolted against him in the midterms. They could not tolerate the cruel separation of families with the locking up of children in cages. 

So the net impact of all this was a loss of forty - one seats in the House of Representatives. One other factor is that a number of Governors where the working populations are declining have suggested that he send the immigrants to their states. 

While the populace is not that much interested in who the judges are they are in favor of a woman’s freedom of choice. An abortion ban may go down well with the hard core base and the Evangelicals but consistently polls reflect six out of ten Americans are in favor of choice. As for Evangelicals there is a split developing which at best can be contained. However the monolith of their support has been shattered with the publication of the editorial in Christianity Today and the resignation of the Christian Post journalist. Surveys reflect that forty - three percent of the Evangelicals support Trump’s impeachment. 

The biggest electoral problem for Trump is healthcare as evidenced by his obsessional opposition to Obamacare and his failure to put anything in its place. There can be no other spin on his lack of direction on healthcare - all he has done by his political and legal fight against Obamacare is taken away care from the populace. Health care costs have exceeded inflation by four times and legions of patients are being sued for their deductibles and copays. It is fair to argue that the loss of governor races by Republicans in Louisiana and Kentucky had much to do with health care. 

All in all Trump will have his work cut out to run on trumpeting that he has fulfilled his electoral mandate.

WHAT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER 2020

Can the teflon Trump with bubbles about to burst all around him hang in there till 2020? His immediate problem is the impeachment process where with a weaker hand Nancy Pelosi is playing him like a fiddle. By not sending the impeachment articles over to the House she has created the illusion, which Trump has bought, that he is dangling in mid air. Adding to Trump’s discomfiture is that Mitch McConnell has overplayed his hand by committing himself holus bolus to the POTUS’s cause bragging about his objective of turning the Senate trial into a rubber stamp joke. 

McConnell, who like the President has his approval rates under water has made the mistake of taking his caucus for granted. Jeff Flake, a recently retired Trump opponent in the Senate, has publicly stated that thirty - five of the fifty - three Republicans would vote for his removal if it was a secret ballot. McConnell has been thumped by the main newspaper in Louisiana who stated in a much publicized editorial that he has by his behavior violated his oath, twice.

Ultimately it is public pressure that could drive the Republicans into the open. For the first time a majority of public opinion want the POTUS removed from office in the Senate trial. More significantly for real politik is that over seventy percent of the electorate want witnesses at his Senate trial - all of whom Trump forbade to appear in the House Impeachment proceedings. It has to be salutary to Trump that McConnell will lose control of the proceedings if only four Republicans vote with the Democrats to overturn his decision not to have witnesses. Already Lisa Murkowski has attacked McConnell on his obsequious stance. Susan Collins has also registered her disquiet at the open partisanship that is being displayed prior to hearing any evidence. 

So the Republicans need not even commit to vote to remove him they can just respond to public pressure to allow a fair trial. Any witness could produce a Nixon Tape moment. John Bolton, for example, has reported that he has knowledge on the Ukrainian extortion that is not as yet out in the public domain. 

 Pelosi has, to add to Trump’s woes stated the impeachment investigations are not as yet over. With regard to the Ukraine extortion scheme more and more evidence is revealed daily. Then If the courts rule that Don McGahn must testify then the Mueller investigation suddenly is resuscitated and back from the dead. Other legal challenges are forever out there, the most scary for Trump is the danger that the Supreme Court rules in June that his finances have to be disclosed.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

However betting agencies are not in the business of giving money away and they reckon Trump is outright favorite by far to have a second term. Jay H. Ell believes that they are banking on the fact that the electorate, at the end of the day must make a choice between him and a Democrat and that the latter Party has not yet a candidate that is a clear cut alternative. The oddsmakers like everybody else saw what happened in the UK when crazy Boris Johnson was elected in a landslide. The British had to choose between a Trotskyite anti semite and Brexit Boris. The Democrats may have Trump stone cold beaten on policies as the election results to date have shown, but while Trump still has his base those in the middle may stick with him if he is able to do a Hillary, with Russia’s help, on the ultimate Democratic candidate. 

PS: Just in case you think the Bookmakers are infallible they were wrong with Hillary!