How does the Senate Trial impact Trump’s chances of re election in 2020? While Jay H. Ell believes the single most important variable in that Presidential equation is who the Democratic Party Candidate turns out to be, there is little doubt that it does factor into the equation. As far as the Republican establishment, the powerful Fox Echo machine and Trump's behavior indicate, they are rightly or wrongly, terrified at the possible outcome.
As it is inconceivable that twenty Republicans will vote to remove him the central issue that is playing out in Washington DC is whether or not four of the faithful might defect and agree to additional witnesses and documents. If that transpires the Trump camp’s terror will escalate into pandemonium. The cabal’s anxiety has palpably increased as the masterful case, led by Adam Schiff, for Trump’s removal crescendoed in the Senate. However all the big money is on the Republicans hanging solid.
The irony is that the Trump’s defense team’s opening two hours outlining the “facts” of the Ukraine scandal cried out for witnesses to clarify Trump’s intent and whose interpretation was correct. Obviously they were acting on their client’s instructions that he had done nothing wrong and they better prove it. They would have done far better to argue only the legal issues and hope everyone would just turn off and forget about it.
THE FRENETIC POTUS
Trump, since Davos has been careering around America and tweeting off the charts mainly smearing Biden and empathizing with “The Socialist Bernie” as to how shamefully the Democratic establishment are treating him. He needs to be reminded that his ongoing jibes against Biden remind all and sundry that he is on trial for trying to bribe a foreign power to dig up dirt on the Vice President. Trump tweeted fifty - four times four hours before noon on day three of the hearing - a record for him. He is holding his tweeting hand with the other to avoid commenting on the actual Senate evidence because there is little doubt that at least one of his rag bag legal team, Ken Starr, has made it quite clear that he must steer clear of that behavior. Even the totally conscienseless Starr has a bottom line as to the behavior of a client. (One wonders, just as an aside, whether Starr has warned Trump not to lie if deposed in any sexual harassment case because that is impeachable and removable activity!).
However Trump is getting closer and closer to crossing the line that Starr, drew on no lesser stage than on Fox News itself. His tweets besides attacking the former Vice President are now focussing on the “shady deal” he is getting in his trial, having his defense interrupted by a Sunday and starting it on a slow TV day, Saturday. In fact Jay H. Ell believes he has ventured into no man’s land by retweeting Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn’s statement that Lieutenant Colonel Vindman, who gave evidence as to the illegality of the Trump calls, is unpatriotic. Vindman is a Purple Heart soldier who reassured his immigrant father that he must not fear for his safety, “Because this is America”.
Trump heaved a sigh of relief at the conclusion of the House Managers’ testimony, “After having to endure hour after hour of fraud, lies and deception by Schifty Schiff, Cryin Chuck Schumer and their crew looks like my lawyers are forced to start on Saturday…”. He has upped the ante big time by threatening Schiff warning him that, "He has not yet paid the price yet", for the impeachment. Guess who had been watching hour after hour? Guess who is not compartmentalizing? Guess who is really to blame for the scheduling, “Moron” McConnell? Guess who really is to blame for these proceedings?
The Award winning Washington Post Fact checker has noted that after three years in office the POTUS has lied close on seventeen thousand times and each year he has stepped it up. In what there has been of 2020 he is really on a roll.
Trump under pressure will only get worse. He is already tweeting his defense’s arguments. As for any Republican who votes for witnesses they can expect abuse of an unprecedented order.
THE REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT
If Ken Starr has a depraved history, Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate House Leader, by comparison, is amoral on steroids. The difference is that McConnell is unashamedly bigoted, hypocritical and prepared to go down to depths that no other modern American leader has sunk to. Nowhere was this more graphically illustrated than when he outright refused to do his constitutional duty and put forward President Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court because that was a year before a Presidential Election. When confronted whether he would have the same reservations before the 2020 Presidential Contest he nonchalantly replied in the negative. If there was a Supreme Court vacancy in election year and Trump presented a Supreme Court candidate he bluntly confessed that he would go ahead. He has no shame, no commitment to the Constitution and this is on show in the Senate trial.
McConnell made it quite clear that he was caucusing with the President and his defense team on the conduct of the Senate trial. He stated on public television that there would no daylight between him and the President on the management of the hearing. He made no secret that he wanted the matter dismissed before even a word was led in evidence, When that was made a no - no he sort to produce a process, published only twelve hours before the start of the Senate sessions, whereby most of the trial would take place when the audience had gone to bed. Under pressure from his moderates he slightly changed his resolve. The Senate leader was so pressured that the changes to the Resolution that outlined the Rules for the hearing were written in by hand.
It has been reported that McConnell still is in constant contact with the President's team who have demanded that the trial be ended by the end of this week. Thus far McConnell and the President are still in control. Every one of the eleven Democratic amendments to the McConnell resolution, most of which called for documents and witnesses that the President has withheld, were soundly defeated. Interestingly one of the amendments asked that the Chief Justice be the arbiter as to whether a subpoenaed witness would be relevant or not to the charges. Another defeated request insisted that the Trump defense share documents unedited that they receive from the President.
The Republican majority’s slavish adherence to the Trump/McConnell team thus far does not inspire confidence that they were resisting the creation of an American dictatorship nor questioning it by the introduction of additional evidence.
THE FOX CHOIR
After initially exhibiting a more balanced approach especially in the day time coverage the highly influential Fox News has gone back to blind support. It has not taken long for the barrel organ to move to full volume to reinforce Trump’s alternative reality. Even after day one the unholy night time trio conceded that things had not gone all that well. Brett Hume explained to Tucker Carlson that Schiff’s arguments may well resonate with a section of important voters who find Trump obnoxious. Laura Ingraham conceded that the Democrats had had a good day and Hannity, in frustration, just stopped the coverage. After that the response of the channel reverted to smear smear and blocking out the sound of the trial.
Now Fox’s influence on the Republican electorate is all encompassing. Sixty percent of Republicans only trust the Fox News agency and view nothing else. Fox have the largest audience in America and they collude even more closely with Trump than McConnell does. One objective is for sure - it is all systems go to get Trump acquitted by week two and then lead the band in the victory march. History will credit Fox with a major contribution to the enhancement and the defining of the Trump cult. Someone should remind Trump that Murdoch is an immigrant.
THE OUTCOME WHETHER OR NOT FOUR REPUBLICAN SENATORS INSIST ON WITNESSES AND DOCUMENTS.
Thus far the persuadable Republicans have played their cards very closely to their chests. The McConnell crowd as well as Trump are comforted by certain metrics. Trump’s approval rating has not shifted down in fact it is up a few percent. It is still below the 2016 national figure to give him a chance to win the Presidency but there is plenty of time for that. His disapproval score mirrors those that want him removed from office - almost fifty percent - but hey those that hate him hate him for real. There is only one number that should give them the willies - the percentage of Americans that want to see witnesses in the Senate trial. That number hovers around seventy percent and includes sixty percent of the Republicans. What is the chance that they can decrease that number in a week? Not much Jay H. Ell reckons as the whole production is still directed at the base.
Thus far the Republicans have not argued with the Democrats as to the essential narrative of events - after all they are in agreement with Trump that this was the perfect call. For two hours his defense team contended that Trump’s motives, words and actions were as pure as driven snow and in America’s best interests.
Logically Trump should welcome the self same witnesses that the Democrats want, to prove that he is right. He has once again offered conspiracy theories about the Bidens and Ukraine intervention in the 2016 election which the Republican Senate Intelligence Committee chucked out. Let him call the Security establishment to back him up. Obviously the Trump cabal believe he is better off without witnesses and are going to rely on the fact that four Republicans are not going to defect. This tactic is not without risk. It certainly will not appease those swing voters that have polled that there should be additional testimony.
Ultimately the burden of the Trump argument is legal and constitutional which is a stretch to say the least. They will have Trump’s newest best friends Dershowitz and Starr to back him up. Out there is virtually every other constitutional lawyer in the country that has indicated that the pair are talking rubbish.
The next problem the defenders face in the witness battle is that Schiff’s show ain’t over yet as they are able to answer eight hours of questioning from the Democrats. Bet your bottom dollar that the emphasis is going to be that the “Idea of America” includes a fair trial and a fair trial includes witnesses.
What the Trump cabal should be taking into account is the fact that between now and November more and more revelations will come out none of which are likely to back up their narrative. The courts, Don McGahn, the steady flow of leaks from the case full of evidence Lev Parnas drip drip dripping are just waiting to surface. Lev Parnas’s just released tape that corroborates that he had a caucus dinner with Trump lasting an hour and a half is slowly sinking in. Those with the slightest objectivity are being constantly reminded that the POTUS claimed he did not know Parnas, If the Trump schema is to get this behind him then better now. Just call everybody a liar, a “Never - Trumper" and a life long Democrat.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
So Jay. H. Ell believes it doesn’t really matter if they have witnesses or not as either way Trump is compromised. Not having them will not persuade the electorate that he is not guilty.
The question is how important will all this be for November to the Trump campaign? Jay H. Ell does not believe that this is the electorate’s top priority. However Trump’s denial of what the overwhelming majority maintain is “America” has to hurt to some extent. However on whether he should be removed or not they will remain more or less stuck where they are unless there is an aha moment in the proceedings. A game changing revelation would only result if some of the base defect from the cult and proclaim him a false prophet.
What is far more important for Trump’s re -election chances is who his Democratic opponent will be. This is what Trump’s gut tells him as well. He believes that Joe Biden will take him to the cleaners and cash in on the 2018 thrashing that was dished out to his Republicans. In case anyone needs confirmation of this assessment, they should ask themselves why he went to all that trouble, involving his Vice President, a third of his cabinet, good old Rudi, Lev Parnas, Igor Fruman and all those amigos to get Ukraine to investigate Biden’s “corruption”. Also why to this day he is still tweeting about Sleepy Joe and how Bernie has been victimized by the Democratic establishment.
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