AFTER THE SENATE TRIAL CAN TRUMP WIN AGAIN?

How does the Senate Trial impact Trump’s chances of re election in 2020? While Jay H. Ell believes the single most important variable in that Presidential equation is who the Democratic Party Candidate turns out to be, there is little doubt that it does factor into the equation. As far as the Republican establishment, the powerful Fox Echo machine and Trump's behavior indicate, they are rightly or wrongly, terrified at the possible outcome. 

As it is inconceivable that twenty Republicans will vote to remove him the central issue that is playing out in Washington DC  is whether or not four of the faithful might defect and agree to additional witnesses and documents. If that transpires the Trump camp’s terror will escalate into pandemonium. The cabal’s anxiety has palpably increased as the masterful case, led by Adam Schiff, for Trump’s removal crescendoed in the Senate. However all the big money is on the Republicans hanging solid. 

The irony is that the Trump’s defense team’s opening two hours outlining the “facts” of the Ukraine scandal cried out for witnesses to clarify Trump’s intent and whose interpretation was correct. Obviously they were acting on their client’s instructions that he had done nothing wrong and they better prove it. They would have done far better to argue only the legal issues and hope everyone would just turn off and forget about it.

THE FRENETIC POTUS

Trump, since Davos has been careering around America and tweeting off the charts mainly smearing Biden and empathizing with “The Socialist Bernie” as to how shamefully the Democratic establishment are treating him. He needs to be reminded that his ongoing jibes against Biden remind all and sundry that he is on trial for trying to bribe a foreign power to dig up dirt on the Vice President. Trump tweeted fifty - four times four hours before noon on day three of the hearing - a record for him. He is holding his tweeting hand with the other to avoid commenting on the actual Senate evidence because there is little doubt that at least one of his rag bag legal team, Ken Starr, has made it quite clear that he must steer clear of that behavior. Even the totally conscienseless Starr has a bottom line as to the behavior of a client. (One wonders, just as an aside, whether Starr has warned Trump not to lie if deposed in any sexual harassment case because that is impeachable and removable activity!). 

However Trump is getting closer and closer to crossing the line that Starr, drew on no lesser stage than on Fox News itself. His tweets besides attacking the former Vice President are now focussing on the “shady deal” he is getting in his trial, having his defense interrupted by a Sunday and starting it on a slow TV day, Saturday. In fact Jay H. Ell believes he has ventured into no man’s land by retweeting Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn’s statement that Lieutenant Colonel Vindman, who gave evidence as to the illegality of the Trump calls, is unpatriotic. Vindman is a Purple Heart soldier who reassured his immigrant father that he must not fear for his safety, “Because this is America”.

 Trump heaved a sigh of relief at the conclusion of the House Managers’ testimony, “After having to endure hour after hour of fraud, lies and deception by Schifty Schiff, Cryin Chuck Schumer and their crew looks like my lawyers are forced to start on Saturday…”. He has upped the ante big time by threatening Schiff warning him that, "He has not yet paid the price yet", for the impeachment. Guess who had been watching hour after hour? Guess who is not compartmentalizing? Guess who is really to blame for the scheduling, “Moron” McConnell? Guess who really is to blame for these proceedings?

The Award winning Washington Post Fact checker has noted that after three years in office the POTUS has lied close on seventeen thousand times and each year he has stepped it up. In what there has been of 2020 he is really on a roll.

Trump under pressure will only get worse. He is already tweeting his defense’s arguments. As for any Republican who votes for witnesses they can expect abuse of an unprecedented order. 

THE REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT

If Ken Starr has a depraved history, Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate House Leader, by comparison, is amoral on steroids. The difference is that McConnell is unashamedly bigoted, hypocritical and prepared to go down to depths that no other modern American leader has sunk to. Nowhere was this more graphically illustrated than when he outright refused to do his constitutional duty and put forward President Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court because that was a year before a Presidential Election. When confronted whether he would have the same reservations before the 2020 Presidential Contest he nonchalantly replied in the negative. If there was a Supreme Court vacancy in election year and Trump presented a Supreme Court candidate he bluntly confessed that he would go ahead. He has no shame, no commitment to the Constitution and this is on show in the Senate trial.

McConnell made it quite clear that he was caucusing with the President and his defense team on the conduct of the Senate trial. He stated on public television that there would no daylight between him and the President on the management of the hearing. He made no secret that he wanted the matter dismissed before even a word was led in evidence, When that was made a no - no he sort to produce a process, published only twelve hours before the start of the Senate sessions, whereby most of the trial would take place when the audience had gone to bed. Under pressure from his moderates he slightly changed his resolve. The Senate leader was so pressured that the changes to the Resolution that outlined the Rules for the hearing were written in by hand.

It has been reported that McConnell still is in constant contact with the President's team who have demanded that the trial be ended by the end of this week. Thus far McConnell and the President are still in control. Every one of the eleven Democratic amendments to the McConnell resolution, most of which called for documents and witnesses that the President has withheld, were soundly defeated. Interestingly one of the amendments asked that the Chief Justice be the arbiter as to whether a subpoenaed witness would be relevant or not to the charges. Another defeated request insisted that the Trump defense share documents unedited that they receive from the President. 

The Republican majority’s slavish adherence to the Trump/McConnell team thus far does not inspire confidence that they were resisting the creation of an American dictatorship nor questioning it by the introduction of additional evidence. 

THE FOX CHOIR

After initially exhibiting a more balanced approach especially in the day time coverage the highly influential Fox News has gone back to blind support. It has not taken long for the barrel organ to move to full volume to reinforce Trump’s alternative reality. Even after day one the unholy night time trio conceded that things had not gone all that well. Brett Hume explained to Tucker Carlson that Schiff’s arguments may well resonate with a section of important voters who find Trump obnoxious. Laura Ingraham conceded that the Democrats had had a good day and Hannity, in frustration, just stopped the coverage. After that the response of the channel reverted to smear smear and blocking out the sound of the trial.

Now Fox’s influence on the  Republican electorate is all encompassing. Sixty percent of Republicans only trust the Fox News agency and view nothing else. Fox have the largest audience in America and they collude even more closely with Trump than McConnell does. One objective  is for sure -  it is all systems go to get Trump acquitted by week two and then lead the band in the victory march. History will credit Fox with a major contribution to the enhancement and the defining of the Trump cult. Someone should remind Trump that Murdoch is an immigrant.

THE OUTCOME WHETHER OR NOT FOUR REPUBLICAN SENATORS INSIST ON WITNESSES AND DOCUMENTS.

Thus far the persuadable Republicans have played their cards very closely to their chests. The McConnell crowd as well as Trump are comforted by certain metrics. Trump’s approval rating has not shifted down in fact it is up a few percent. It is still below the 2016 national figure to give him a chance to win the Presidency but there is plenty of time for that. His disapproval score mirrors those that want him removed from office - almost fifty percent - but hey those that hate him hate him for real. There is only one number that should give them the willies - the percentage of Americans that want to see witnesses in the Senate trial. That number hovers around seventy percent and includes sixty percent of the Republicans. What is the chance that they can decrease that number in a week? Not much Jay H. Ell reckons as the whole production is still directed at the base. 

Thus far the Republicans have not argued with the Democrats as to the essential narrative of events - after all they are in agreement with Trump that this was the perfect call. For two hours his defense team contended that Trump’s motives, words and actions were as pure as driven snow and in America’s best interests. 

Logically Trump should welcome the self same witnesses that the Democrats want, to prove that he is right. He has once again offered conspiracy theories about the Bidens and Ukraine intervention in the 2016 election which the Republican Senate Intelligence Committee chucked out. Let him call the Security establishment to back him up. Obviously the Trump cabal believe he is better off without witnesses and are going to rely on the fact that four Republicans are not going to defect. This tactic is not without risk. It certainly will not appease those swing voters that have polled that there should be additional testimony.

Ultimately the burden of the Trump argument is legal and constitutional which is a stretch to say the least. They will have Trump’s newest best friends Dershowitz and Starr to back him up. Out there is virtually every other constitutional lawyer in the country that has indicated that the pair are talking rubbish.

The next problem the defenders face in the witness battle is that Schiff’s show ain’t over yet as they are able to answer eight hours of questioning from the Democrats. Bet your bottom dollar that the emphasis is going to be that the “Idea of America” includes a fair trial and a fair trial includes witnesses. 

What the Trump cabal should be taking into account is the fact that between now and November more and more revelations will come out none of which are likely to back up their narrative. The courts, Don McGahn, the steady flow of leaks from the case full of evidence Lev Parnas drip drip dripping are just waiting to surface. Lev Parnas’s just released tape that corroborates that he had a caucus dinner with Trump lasting an hour and a half is slowly sinking in. Those with the slightest objectivity are being constantly reminded that the POTUS claimed he did not know Parnas, If the Trump schema is to get this behind him then better now. Just call everybody a liar, a “Never - Trumper" and a life long Democrat. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

So Jay. H. Ell believes it doesn’t really matter if they have witnesses or not as either way Trump is compromised. Not having them will not persuade the electorate that he is not guilty.

The question is how important will all this be for November to the Trump campaign? Jay H. Ell does not believe that this is the electorate’s top priority. However Trump’s denial of what the overwhelming majority maintain is “America” has to hurt to some extent. However on whether he should be removed or not they will remain more or less stuck where they are unless there is an aha moment in the proceedings. A game changing revelation would only result if some of the base defect from the cult and proclaim him a false prophet.

What is far more important for Trump’s re -election chances is who his Democratic opponent will be. This is what Trump’s gut tells him as well.  He believes that Joe Biden will take him to the cleaners and cash in on the 2018 thrashing that was dished out to his Republicans. In case anyone needs confirmation of this assessment, they should ask themselves why he went to all that trouble, involving his Vice President, a third of his cabinet, good old Rudi, Lev Parnas, Igor Fruman and all those amigos to get Ukraine to investigate Biden’s “corruption”. Also why to this day he is still tweeting about Sleepy Joe and how Bernie has been victimized by the Democratic establishment.

TRUMP - THE CHOICE

The Impeachment Trial of Donald J. Trump, the forty - fifth President of the United States, starting this week is about more than the future of the current incumbent of the Presidency. Ultimately it is about what type of Government America wishes to choose to live under. The urgency of the termination proceedings are as a result of Trump’s pattern of illegal behavior and the fear that he will continue. He openly welcomed illegal foreign intervention for his benefit in the 2016 presidential contest and has followed up attempting to extort it from Ukraine for his 2020 re election. 

In arguing against the charges Trump is essentially relying on a revisionist interpretation of the Constitution that he has absolute power as the facts of the shakedown are no longer in contention.

 Speaker Pelosi resisted Impeachment proceedings against the rogue President for as long as she could. They became mandatory because of his actions which were not only an abuse of power but threatened America’s national security. She was eventually persuaded to proceed by those Democratic House Representatives who were elected in constituencies in 2018 that Trump had easily won in 2016. They argued that losing their seats in 2020 was far less important to them than upholding the constitution, which was their foremost obligation to their constituents.

IT ONLY GETS WORSE BUT “SO WHAT”

The recent documentary revelations from Freedom of Information requests, the devastating testimony of indicted Lev Parnas, which he backed up by troves of supporting evidence, the finding of the Government Accountability Office watchdog that Trump broke the law in withholding Congressional voted moneys to aid an ally in a war against Russia are all breathtaking examples of the naked hubris the President has exhibited in prioritizing his agenda in favor of that of the nation. The latter evidence added to the House of Intelligence uncontested narrative that there was a Trump directed extortion and bribery operation directed against the Government of Ukraine, to extract dirt on a political opponent leaves the Trump camp with the core defense that the President can do whatever he chooses. The facts are not in dispute. In short he used the power of the Executive for his own personal purposes thereby risking the nation’s security but ‘so what as President he is constitutionally entitled to'. 

THE RATIONALE FOR THE  FOUNDING OF AMERICA IS BEING REINTERPRETED.

It is not being melodramatic to scream that the period America is experiencing now is negating the purpose and the reasons why George Washington was in battle for eight year’s in America’s War of Independence. Obviously according to the President's enablers it was for the right of the President to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue New York. Trump’s Attorney General has argued in court that there can no redress in the event that he does so. 

Also that which Madison, Mason and Hamilton wrote in the Federalist Papers is now being seen as supportive of an absolute monarch. Finally what Madison, Jefferson and Adams were fighting about in their creation of the American Constitution was apparently the right of one branch of government to be unanswerable to the others. One wonders why they went to the ends of the earth to create three "co -equal" branches when one was to be more "co - equal" than the others.

 The simplistic solution of Trump, Barr, Dershowitz and Starr was that all these endeavors were to enshrine the right of Donald J. Trump to be above the people's elected representatives and the law.

 To the disbelief of their many peers and the legal community Alan Dershowitz and Kenneth Starr support Trump’s constitutional position one way or another. Jay H. Ell is disinterested in the hypocrisy that can be alleged at the pair. Just to make a few comments on Dershowitz's contention that Founders' intended that impeachment could only be instituted when there was a defined breech of criminal law. Not only is that assertion contradicted in the Federalist Papers at the time of the Consitution there was no Criminal Code to break! The pair will persuade no one. However they will provide legitimacy to those who believe the American Revolution was about ultimately reintroducing the Monarchy, in the form of the cult of Donald John Trump

A number of individuals, constituencies and the American people as a whole face the choice of whether they want to return to an absolute monarchy or in this instance a dictatorship. 

THE CHOICE

The Republican Party

What the POTUS is asking is that the Republican Party to officially morph into the cult of Donald John Trump. They are being enjoined to sanction in unambiguous terms that his actions cannot be called to question. There is little doubt that the Republican National Committee have decided that is what they stand for. They have supported Trump in limiting the Primary challenges he has to withstand as just one example of the consequences of their total capitulaton.

The Republican Senators

This leaves the Republican Senators to weigh in how history will judge them - the criterion being whether or not they interpret the American Constitution in the same way as Trump and his echo chamber do. They will have a number of choices. Firstly as to whether they will back their cynical amoral leader that there should in effect be no trial. Failing that his constitutional contention is that there should not be witnesses as the Democrats should have called them in the House of Representatives. The fact that they weren’t was because Trump refused to allow them is considered irrelevant as is the fact that that this behavior is a component of the second Impeachment charge - obstruction of Congress’s constitutional obligation of oversight.

 There is however a distinct possibility that enough  Senators might disaffect on the subject of hearing witnesses so that those such as The National Security Advisor John Bolton who characterized Trump’s Ukraine initiative as a “drug deal” can give testimony.  Bolton has publicly announced that he has additional information to share and will respond to a Senate subpoena, There are others who, if this really is a trial, will be able to flesh out in the first person Trump’s mob operation and those participants that aided and abetted him. Ambassador Sondland’s pithy assessments included that “Everyone was in the loop - we followed the President’s orders and there was a quid pro quo”. As seventy percent of the electorate have indicated in polls that they wish to hear witnesses there has to be a chance that four Republicans, will if not following their consciences, will follow the polls. 

Then each and every Senator should allow the gravity of their decision to weigh heavily on what values they uphold.. In a matter of such gravumen Jay H. Ell is singularly unimpressed with the defense that by voting against Emperor Trump they risk losing their seats either in a Primary or an election. He is more than mindful that there will never be twenty members of what was once Abraham Lincoln’s Party will vote to remove the POTUS. They will cling to the rationale that Dershowitz and Starr will provide rather than follow the lead of their Democratic House of Representative colleagues who claimed that upholding the values of the Constitution was more important than the privileges of membership of the most exclusive club in America.

Former Administration Members

From former Trump administrators, from Bolton, to Bannon,  and all the others that haven’t been convicted for crimes related to the Commander in Chief there is a strange silence. They too have first hand knowledge to add meat to the bones of the conspiracy. Where are the Generals? They have an overriding oath other than to shut up and swallow the orders and abuse of their unstable Commander in Chief who has hand on the nuclear buttons. Let Rex Tillerson explain how he came to be fired and why he thought Trump was a “f,,,,ing moron”

Chief Justice Roberts versus Rehnquist in the Clinton Trial

The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court too has a dilemma. The Constitution is vague as to how he might behave in presiding over this solemn occasion. He can cop out as Chief Justice Rehnquist did in Clinton’s impeachment in 1999. The latter claimed that he did very little but he did it very well. In sync with his Gillbert and Sullivan allusion he also wore stripes on his robes as the Lord High Chancellor did in a production of the pairs' musical "Iolanthe". Rehnquist may well have thought the matter was a joke because after all is said and done no one could have ever thought George Washington and those that followed that eight year war did it all to ensure that an election should be overturned for lying about a consensual sexual affair. Lindsey Graham then pontificated with the utmost conviction that that was Madison et al were gadding about in the Federalist Papers when they were discussing impeachment. Mitch McConnell maintained, with a straight face, that you couldn’t have a trial without witnesses, especially when it involved consensual sex which had already been graphically described in pornographic detail by Ken Starr. It is the selfsame Kenneth Starr that has staked what is left of his reputation on the mantra that lies about sex were far worse than the close on two thousand Trump has chalked up thus far, even when they involve risking national security for personal gain. 

Now if Jay H. Ell can see this all surely so can the Chief Justice. He can, with the nation watching, make it clear what he understands what constitutes a trial and what the Constitution stands for. There is an inkling of hope that he just might.

The American People

Ultimately the choice is that of the American people both by making their views known now and in the 2020 elections. The Democrats also have to make a choice - who to elect to run as their Presidential nominee against Trump who, unless there is a Damascus moment in the Senate Republican caucus, will be Trump. 

Trump’s Choice

Trump is once again making his preference clear. He wants to run against Senator Sanders. He claims that Nancy Pelosi held up the impeachment articles so that Bernie would have to sit through the proceedings and not be able to campaign in Iowa. Sanders is there with three other Democratic contenders who Nancy, one presumes, also doesn’t want to win the nomination. The POTUS maintains that the Democratic Establishment axed Bernie last time as well as they preferred Hillary, while he supported Bernie. In fact in his non condemnation of the Russian intervention he not suprisingly did not chastise them for supporting “the socialist” over Hillary,

Trump’s choice as to whom he doesn’t want to run against is as obvious - the reason he is being impeached - Joe Biden. He is terrified that "Sleepy Joe" because he is a continuation of the Obama he hates will be preferred over he who is the greatest King America has had since declaring Independence. In fact Trump is even better than George III.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Although it will take time to fully corroborate Lev Parnas’s testimony it made for spell binding television. He appeared highly credible whatever his motives were for spilling the beans. Everything he matter of factly blurbed has been corroborated by previous witnesses, documents and his own cache of supportive paper. It was riveting viewing as he matter of a factly laid out the efforts from the leader himself, Rudi Giuliani, Mike Pence, Secretary Perry, Secretary Pompeo and the like. He added the insights as to the direct negotiations he had with the Ukrainian establishment, the Ukrainian dramatis personae that they were trying to utilize to get dirt on Biden, the effectiveness of Ambassador Yovanovitch as an anti corruption agent and the ongoing efforts to remove her, the internal corruption that still exists within the country and the conclusion that contrary to the supposed rationale that justified this illegal operation, Joe Biden had done nothing wrong. He would make a great witness. 

Full credit to President Zelensky for not succumbing to Trump’s bribery scheme. He has enough corruption to deal with without sorting out America’s.

If Trump survives, as expected, this ordeal he has plenty other jeopardy in the offing. Not the least are his financial details. The most significant for America’s future will however be 2020.

TRUMP: AFTER SULEIMANI’S KILLING WHAT NOW?

The forever unpredictable POTUS dramatically and unimaginably changed the Middle East’s narrative by ordering the killing of the number two in the Iranian hierarchy, who was the Commander in Chief of its elite force the Quds. Qasem Suleimani was a central figure in the Middle East who had fashioned and integrated the Shia coalition by supporting terrorist groups and backing the rogue Assad. Iran appears to already making good on its threat to retaliate with missile strikes on US bases.

The  American action has changed so many dynamics that it is difficult to know where to start. A good place would be that there is one fact that everyone agrees on, namely that Qasem Suleimani was one bad bad actor whose infamy was counterbalanced by his cult like following across the Middle East from Syria to Yemen. In Iran he was considered to be the successor to Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Another unchallengeable outcome of the executive action was that, for a few days Trump’s impeachment was bumped off prime time. This was particularly significant as the ante had just been upped up by the intimations by three Republican Senators that they were open to having witnesses testify at his Senate trial. John Bolton’s availability as a witness added fuel to that fire. The possibility of witnesses became that more significant with the publication of communications between the WhiteHouse and the Pentagon which directly implicated the President with holding up the Congress mandated funds to Ukraine. Also there were e mails being withheld that proved that senior members of the POTUS’S administration beseeched him not to deny a desperate ally’s aid. 

The most significant sequel to Trump’s action is that, overnight, America’s position and reputation in the Middle East hit rock bottom and Iran’s assumed a new respectability.

BACKGROUND TO TRUMP’S ACTION

The drama is being played to the background of Trump having campaigned forcibly that he was against Bush’s Iraqi war, was going to withdraw all American forces from the world and his Presidency would not involve itself in the futile, endless, costly wars that go nowhere. He is now sending an aditional three thousand five hundred service men to the Middle East to cope with the fall out of his hit on Suleimani. 

What is haunting Trump is the endless replaying of his interviews and tweets in 2011 where he maintained that the only path for Obama’s re election was if he declared war against Iran. Steve Schmidt the former GOP operative, who worked on the campaigns of George W. Bush and John McCain is openly arguing that the Suleimani execution was to serve Trump’s internal political agenda. Also it was being reported that George W. Bush, Barak Obama and Israel’s Mossad all ruled out eliminating Suleimani because of the risks that it involved. Adding to the POTUS’S New Year woes are that his newest best friend who he professes to love, North Korea’s Kim Jun Un, has threatened missiles because Trump has not lessened sanctions on the North Korea.

Then of course there is the minefield of legal woes back in America…….

HISTORY WILL DECIDE BUT FOR THE MOMENT IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD

In truth the outcome of Trump’s actions are uncertain and history will decide. However the immediate signs are that he has landed himself and America in one big mess and in characteristic style he is just upping the ante. There are three arenas which bear examining - Iran itself, the domestic scene including Trump’s future and the Middle East in general. Hanging over all these three now is the threat of war - typical and atypical - that could follow from the elimination of the equivalent of the American Vice President and its Chief of Armed Forces rolled into one. 

THE DOMESTIC SCENE

Anonymous reports from the WhiteHouse indicate that officials were flabbergasted when Trump chose the option of a hit on Iran’s number two as an answer to the killing of a US contractor and a protest on the American Embassy. Trump had to believe that the Democrats would dare not attack his decision. This was a matter of National Security after all. While there was the predictable partisan split, Fox News’s Tucker Carlson reminded all that America needed this type of meddling like a hole in the head implicitly criticizing the POTUS and reminding him of what he ran on. The Democratic Presidential candidates have not held back and Biden’s response has been very Presidential. 

What adds to the bad optics is that he never, as custom dictates, informed the “Gang of Eight”, the majority and minority leaders of both parties in both houses of the forthcoming action.  He did however share the impending attack on Suleimani with those holidaying at his club Mar a Lago and Lindsey Graham. When he finally sent formal acknowledgment of his action to Congress he classified the whole document. The fact that the Democrats were unconvinced of his reasons was evident when Pelosi claimed that his notification raised more questions than it answered. 

Meanwhile mixed GOP strategies were flying around about impeachment. Trump and McConnell were at odds on tactics. The former screaming at Pelosi for not sending over the articles of impeachment and the latter stating that he doesn’t care if she never sends them. Adding to the confusion was Lindsey Graham who, reflecting his Master’s Voice, told McConnell to proceed without them. Graham believed, having stated earlier that he did not bother to read the transcripts of the House Hearings, that the Senate knew enough to acquit Trump now. 

None of this will fly very well as seventy- three percent of the electorate believe that there should be a trial with witnesses. Speaker Pelosi for her part appeared in no hurry to make a decision but she is savvy enough to know that this cannot go on forever. She will probably send them across when the Republicans have made it even clearer that they will turn the solemn constitutional question into a farce. McConnell like Trump has no shame.

MEANWHILE BACK IN IRAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST

Suleimani had two funeral ceremonies when in Baghdad and the other in Teheran which were attended by hundreds of thousands of angry mourners. There was such a crush that fifty died and hundreds were injured. The burial had to be postponed because the crowds, who were screaming revenge and death to America and Israel, were too dense to allow the funeral to proceed. Perhaps the mood in the streets was best summed up by the fact that in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq just a few days previously there were protests against Iran now they are directed at America.

The Iranian Supreme Commander vowed revenge. Trump tweeted that he would have the full might of the US military on his head if he attempted to respond to the American move which he claimed was an attempt to prevent war. Iran countered that America had declared war by its action. Trump threatened destroying fifty - two Iranian cultural sites, (a war crime), the Ayatollah’s dignified reply was that he would only strike at American military sites, while announcing that Iran would restart its nuclear program. Trump ran into more trouble when his Secretary of Defense stated that he would not commit war crimes. 

The Iraqi parliament asked Trump to withdraw America troops from their soil. This really hurt as America has spent billions of dollars in an attempt at effecting regime change. Since 2003 close on five thousand troops have succumbed while protecting American and Iraqi interests, The Iraqi parliament voted on the resolution and expressed fury on this assault on their sovereign soil. Again the American response was chaotic and uncoordinated, the American Military Commander on the ground respecting the Iraqi decision stated he was preparing to move with Trump and his Secretary of State saying “no way”.

 Trump had already issued an order that every American civilian leave Iraq by the next flight while at the same time sending another three thousand five hundred soldiers into the country. He further threatened Iraq with sanctions if they threw American forces out. Sanctions he said that would be far worse than those of Iran! The US then closed its training mission in Iraq as a result of stepped up rocket attacks from the Iranian backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon. Whether related or not the Iranian backed terror group in Kenya, Al - Shabaab, murdered three Americans. The latest in the escalation is missile attacks on two American bases with no apparent casualties.

Meanwhile America's Sunni allies, the Saudis and Arab Gulf States, remained mum. The latter are anxious not to create waves. The Saudis in fact had given a pass to the fact that their major oil installation had been struck by a missile which everyone knew came from Iran.

Bibi Netanyahu was the only world leader to say hoorah. He is also the only world leader in as big a legal boondoggle as Trump. Jay H. Ell is quite sure that his message is not what his Security apparatus is saying, they had already intimated that the Iranians were sticking to the nuclear deal. 

It is not unreasonable to conclude that Trump’s original aim to abandon the Middle East might be the plausible way to go at the moment.

AMERICA’S ALLIES

Secretary Pompeo complained that America was getting no support from its traditional allies. One wonders if he was serious. Even George W. Bush took the trouble to assemble a large number of allies, albeit under false pretenses, before invading Iraq back in 2003. The best the UK, France and the like can offer at the moment is that they counsel caution.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

One wonders how much longer the Republicans will prop up this out of control POTUS before he starts WW 111 and ruins what is left of America’s reputation. They have an opportunity, on legitimate grounds, to dump him quickly for abusing his power and obstruction of justice. Just promise a trial with witnesses and Nancy Pelosi will oblige with sending over the Articles of Impeachment first thing the next morning. 

It has to be of cause for concern for the Republicans that the leader of their party has been accused three times for conducting American foreign policy for his personal gain. Firstly, there is Ukraine, the basis for impeachment. Secondly, his bizarre policy where he gave Turkey the go ahead to invade Syria thus selling out America’s long time allies the Kurds, which was explained by his former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, as putting his business interests ahead of American security. Finally, the Suleimani hit is being openly attributed as a diversionary tactic from his domestic plight.

It is fair to argue that so far the benefits of ridding the world of Suleimani have been far outweighed by the disadvantages. Iran has tentacles and proxies all over the Middle East to retaliate. 

What sticks in the crawl most is the fact that Iran, who operate an oppressive racist and terrorist regime are in a position to hold the high ground. They are accusing the US of war crimes - by threatening to attack cultural sites, crimes against humanity - by threatening to induce starvation conditions by sanctions and finally of murder of a foreign leader on foreign soil. The Iranian Foreign Minister can now pontificate as to how they can restore the international nuclear deal if those that broke it return. Meanwhile they claim that they are within their rights increasing centrifuges till adherence is returned to. 

Pelosi should get a resolution passed in the House reminding Trump of the War Powers Act and that he cannot go to war without Congress’s permission. It will be interesting to note whether McConnell will put it to the vote on the Senate floor……. 

One fact is for certain that the world is a more dangerous place than it was a week ago - not safer as Trump, Pompeo and Fox News are maintaining!

CAN TRUMP BE DEFEATED IN 2020?

Preventing Trump from having a second term is the hope and prayer of well over fifty percent of Americans. His forty percent cult have little doubt that he is unassailable, some even invoking his ascension to the Presidency as G-d's will. The Republican legislators terrified of Primary challenges where only the base, (Trump’s soldiers), pitch up are stultifying any criticism in the belief they will be dragged over the 2020 finish line hanging onto his coat tails. 

Two paradigms are in operation in assessing his chances - each one arriving at an opposite conclusion. Both assume that he will survive the bumpy ride that awaits him between now and November 2020. Jay H. Ell believes that Trump’s re election needs an even bigger perfect storm that allowed him to swagger and stagger through his business life with its three bankruptcies, win the Republican Party nomination and then the Presidency. 

So let’s examine, Why Trump Can’t Lose, Why Trump Can’t Win and What Can Happen Between Now and November 2020.

WHY TRUMP CAN’T LOSE

There are a number of factors that contribute to the optimism of the Trump cult. These include the socio - economic upheaval that heralded his surprise election in the first place, the present economic climate, the vast financial and organizational resources he has at his disposal and the fact his base support remains rock solid. Added to this is the fact that incumbents rarely are defeated. Furthemore Trump  is mounting the same smear tactics that he successfully utilized to win him both the Republican nomination and the Presidency. This time around he is operating with the pulpit and the infrastructure of his Presidency. His administration including the Attorney General and other Cabinet Ministers are assisting him in trashing his political opponents and his claim that he is above the law. There is also every reason to believe that once again he will receive foreign assistance in his endeavor. 

Trump by the numbers.

This is the parameter that really matters. As indicated Trump’s approval is still close to where it always was and it is about seven to eight percent below his vote share in 2016. The most significant statistic that he has to reassure him is how those that make a living from betting, the oddsmakers, rate his chances. At best, nearly a year out, one can only win one dollar for every dollar wagered on backing Trump as the victor. His probable Democratic rival Joe Biden, has the generous odds of five dollars for one. While these odds will obviously change when the Democrats finally elect a nominee there is little doubt who those make a living from who becomes President will keep The Donald as favorite. 

Has Trump delivered on his campaign social,  political, identity and economic promises ?

Donald Trump was elected on a wave of populism which was fueled by disgust and disillusionment of all politicians of all parties who had failed to shelter them from the internet/information/service revolution and a global economy which saw what manufacturing jobs that were still left being outsourced to South East Asia. Both major parties were perceived to have protected the elites at the expense of the victims. Those who had been responsible for a major economic recession in 2008 to add insult to injury emerged from the carnage with massive pay outs. In addition Trump claimed that the economic plight was exacerbated by immigration which he would stop. 

He has come up trumps on his social agenda which incidentally is at total odds with his previous convictions and his personal behavior. Most significantly with the help of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell he has appointed a record one hundred and eighty - three Judges to the Federal Bench, including two to the Supreme Court giving the latter a clear conservative majority. He is now an anti abortion protagonist and he has selected judges with this in mind. 

Then with all the accompanying opprobrium and breaking every immigration law on the books he has all but halted immigration including vast numbers who are seeking asylum on the border. His Muslim ban was watered down but was passed by the Supreme Court. He claims he has built his white elephant border wall and as his sycophants swallow anything he says so that too deserves a tick in the column. 

On foreign policy he signaled on the trail that it would "be good" if America became friends with Russia - well he has brought home the bacon on that one! His record on pulling out of all wars is spotty to say the least. The fact that he has abandoned our allies in favor of those who appear to have business interests with him and/or are run by authoritarians is not high up on the list of priorities of his camp.

With regard to the economy the POTUS can brag that unemployment has never been lower, the stock markets have never been higher and there is little inflation. His efforts to eradicate Obamacare have been partially successful but he has not introduced anything in its place.

All in all Trump can argue that he has delivered, his strongest pointers are the economy and stopping illegal and legal immigration at the border. If nothing else he is created a clear cut identity for white America to connect with.
He will forcefully maintain by so doing he has Made America Great Again.

WHY TRUMP CANNOT WIN

 Trump by the numbers.

While much fuss is made that his base has remained in tact that is only forty percent of the electorate not the near forty - eight percent that he landed in 2016. This eight percent difference between Trump’s election numbers has shown to be significant in a large number of electoral reverses that the Republicans have sustained in the midterms in State and Federal elections. The Democratic majority in votes in the 2018 midterms was eight million compared to Hillary Clinton’s three million advantage. It could be argued that Trump was not on the ballot but he ran around the country putting himself on it begging the electorate to vote Republican for him. What has to more scary for the POTUS are the results of the Governorships in States that he carried by over twenty percent, Louisiana and Mitch McConnell’s Kentucky. There he beseeched, in vain, the electorate to vote for the Republican stating that if the Democrats won he would be embarrassed, and embarrassed he was.

Poll numbers in the Mid West States that put Trump over the top in the Electoral College currently show Trump under water. Every national poll puts Biden ahead of him by eight to twelve percent.

So not withstanding the odds makers’ convictions Trump has his work cut out if the numbers are spun this way.

Has Trump delivered on his social,  political, identity and economic promises ?

Trump’s promise to reverse economic history has failed. No coal mines have been reopened nor have factories returned from Mexico and China. His tax cuts hardly touched his electorate, as the hourly wage has barely nudged ahead.  This is the principle reason why there is no inflation because the job market has irreversibly become global. No - one in this day and age has job security. 

Trump’s erratic trade policies have pushed up the prices of certain items. Farmers have been hit as the compensation package Trump introduced for the damage to their sales caused by his sanctions is not being distributed equitably. What the tax cuts for the rich resulted in is the largest national deficit in American history. This has to further alienate any real fiscal Republicans that still may be left in the Party.

Trump’s cruel immigration policies may have satisfied most of his base but they are considered to be one of the principle reasons that the white Republican women in the suburbs revolted against him in the midterms. They could not tolerate the cruel separation of families with the locking up of children in cages. 

So the net impact of all this was a loss of forty - one seats in the House of Representatives. One other factor is that a number of Governors where the working populations are declining have suggested that he send the immigrants to their states. 

While the populace is not that much interested in who the judges are they are in favor of a woman’s freedom of choice. An abortion ban may go down well with the hard core base and the Evangelicals but consistently polls reflect six out of ten Americans are in favor of choice. As for Evangelicals there is a split developing which at best can be contained. However the monolith of their support has been shattered with the publication of the editorial in Christianity Today and the resignation of the Christian Post journalist. Surveys reflect that forty - three percent of the Evangelicals support Trump’s impeachment. 

The biggest electoral problem for Trump is healthcare as evidenced by his obsessional opposition to Obamacare and his failure to put anything in its place. There can be no other spin on his lack of direction on healthcare - all he has done by his political and legal fight against Obamacare is taken away care from the populace. Health care costs have exceeded inflation by four times and legions of patients are being sued for their deductibles and copays. It is fair to argue that the loss of governor races by Republicans in Louisiana and Kentucky had much to do with health care. 

All in all Trump will have his work cut out to run on trumpeting that he has fulfilled his electoral mandate.

WHAT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER 2020

Can the teflon Trump with bubbles about to burst all around him hang in there till 2020? His immediate problem is the impeachment process where with a weaker hand Nancy Pelosi is playing him like a fiddle. By not sending the impeachment articles over to the House she has created the illusion, which Trump has bought, that he is dangling in mid air. Adding to Trump’s discomfiture is that Mitch McConnell has overplayed his hand by committing himself holus bolus to the POTUS’s cause bragging about his objective of turning the Senate trial into a rubber stamp joke. 

McConnell, who like the President has his approval rates under water has made the mistake of taking his caucus for granted. Jeff Flake, a recently retired Trump opponent in the Senate, has publicly stated that thirty - five of the fifty - three Republicans would vote for his removal if it was a secret ballot. McConnell has been thumped by the main newspaper in Louisiana who stated in a much publicized editorial that he has by his behavior violated his oath, twice.

Ultimately it is public pressure that could drive the Republicans into the open. For the first time a majority of public opinion want the POTUS removed from office in the Senate trial. More significantly for real politik is that over seventy percent of the electorate want witnesses at his Senate trial - all of whom Trump forbade to appear in the House Impeachment proceedings. It has to be salutary to Trump that McConnell will lose control of the proceedings if only four Republicans vote with the Democrats to overturn his decision not to have witnesses. Already Lisa Murkowski has attacked McConnell on his obsequious stance. Susan Collins has also registered her disquiet at the open partisanship that is being displayed prior to hearing any evidence. 

So the Republicans need not even commit to vote to remove him they can just respond to public pressure to allow a fair trial. Any witness could produce a Nixon Tape moment. John Bolton, for example, has reported that he has knowledge on the Ukrainian extortion that is not as yet out in the public domain. 

 Pelosi has, to add to Trump’s woes stated the impeachment investigations are not as yet over. With regard to the Ukraine extortion scheme more and more evidence is revealed daily. Then If the courts rule that Don McGahn must testify then the Mueller investigation suddenly is resuscitated and back from the dead. Other legal challenges are forever out there, the most scary for Trump is the danger that the Supreme Court rules in June that his finances have to be disclosed.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

However betting agencies are not in the business of giving money away and they reckon Trump is outright favorite by far to have a second term. Jay H. Ell believes that they are banking on the fact that the electorate, at the end of the day must make a choice between him and a Democrat and that the latter Party has not yet a candidate that is a clear cut alternative. The oddsmakers like everybody else saw what happened in the UK when crazy Boris Johnson was elected in a landslide. The British had to choose between a Trotskyite anti semite and Brexit Boris. The Democrats may have Trump stone cold beaten on policies as the election results to date have shown, but while Trump still has his base those in the middle may stick with him if he is able to do a Hillary, with Russia’s help, on the ultimate Democratic candidate. 

PS: Just in case you think the Bookmakers are infallible they were wrong with Hillary!