MC CONNELL AND TRUMP: FIGHT FOR CONROL OF GOP WITH THE SENATE AT STAKE

 

Conventional wisdom is that the GOP other than the loss of the Presidency are riding the crest of the wave. However, what has been bubbling for months barely below the surface, namely a fight for the control of the GOP and its core beliefs finally surfaced this week. McConnell after praising Trump to the G-ds announced, to Trump’s fury, that Biden was President Elect. Simplistically put, the issue at stake is whether the Grand Old Party is going to be a totalitarian party under Trump or is there still going to be a semblance of the democratic values that were once central to their belief system. On another level this is a contest as to who is going to be the de facto leader of the GOP in the next four years, Trump or McConnell.  

The Republican base has sided with Trump in his undisguised attempt at a coup d’etat even though there weren’t enough of them to have elected him President in the first place.One fact is evident there was no way Trump was going to take the party or country into account in his relentless narcissistic pursuit to overturn the election. His quixotic pursuit was putting the control of the Senate at risk with the upcoming Georgia elections. The outcome of the Senate elections would also play a role in who would be the dominant figure in the GOP as if the Republicans retained their seats, McConnell would remain in the powerhouse position he has occupied for the last decade. 

TRUMP ESCALATING FIGHT TO REVERSE ELECTION

In the absence of any leadership from the Republican establishment the base remains loyal to Trump in his unseemly battle to reverse a legitimate election. The bizarre situation where Trump was attacking Republican officials who were following the Constitution and declaring Biden the winner was playing out with a vengeance in the crucial Senate elections in Georgia which would decide the control of the Senate. Because of the mixed messages the Republican base were receiving, from Trump and his surrogates, in what should have been a pushover for the Republicans, the election has tightened and the polls indicate a statistical dead heat.

As the Inauguration date grew nearer and nearer a number of events forced Mitch McConnell to finally intervene. While Trump’s daily reversals in Court were routine the loss of his “Big One” where a total of eighteen Republican Attorney Generals and over half of the Republican House representatives sided with a blatantly political motion to reverse certified election results and make Trump President, was significant in that half the Republican Party had lined up with Trump to effect a coup through the Judiciary. This concerted action, unless challenged had to appear to be the consensus  policy of the GOP.  

The resounding defeat by the Supreme Court had no salutary effect on Trump or the Congresspeople. They were going to challenge the certified Electoral College Vote when it came up to Congress on January 6, 2021. However for there to be a real bohaai they needed at least one Republican Senator to go along with them and there were plenty of potential takers. 

GIVING TIME TO TRUMP TO ACCEPT BACKFIRES

Evidence of Trump going even more off the rails, if any was needed, was provided when he started attacking Attorney General Barr who when history is written will be exhibit one in aiding the Trump’s presidency to be totalitarian. Whitewashing the Mueller report, harassing Trump’s enemies, giving get out of jail cards to his friends, the list of Barr’s perfidy is endless. Yet for reporting the obvious on an investigation which was illegally ordered at Trump’s behest, that there was no meaningful fraud in the 2020 election, he had to go. .

 It had become obvious that the rationale being used by the Trump enablers that “just give him time to come to terms” was not working. In fact his obsession with the electoral outcome and paranoia that everyone was turning against him was worsening. It could not wait any longer for McConnell to gently but unequivocally let him know the facts.

 Even Fox News after almost six years of slavish subservience to The Leader got the “fake news” treatment for devoting some of its precious time to actually reporting the election results and for example forecasting that Arizona would go for Biden. They were being told how low their ratings were and that they were going to hell in a hand basket. They had “sold out and reached a new low by running endless negative and unedited commentaries!”, whined the POTUS. Fox’s response was to air on the shows that ran the Trump conspiracy theories with the least filters, Lou Dobbs, Jeanine Pirro and Maria Bartiromo, a refutation of his arguments as spouted by him and two of his lawyers Rudi Giuliani and Sidney Powell. This followed litigation by one of the companies alleged to be involved in the conspiracy to make Biden the victor. Wonder what Hannity, Ingraham and Carson will have to say about that?

Trump’s almost total abandonment of Presidential duties in favor of his election fights and paranoia towards his “enemies” became more and more glaring as the Covid Pandemic spread like wildfire and the revelation of Russian warlike cyberattack on key American agencies and institutions. The former was not even mentioned by the President, while the belated comment on the latter was it was probably the Chinese. At least he didn’t postulate that it was some four hundred pound man sitting on a bed.  

TRUMP’S OBVIOUS DISINTEREST IN THE GEORGIA SENATE OUTCOME WAS EVEN MORE DISCONCERTING

What was even more dangerous and near and dear to McConnell’s heart was the control of the Senate. Trump and his surrogates were focussing in on Georgia’s Republican establishment to argue their case that the election result should be overturned.  While Trump was still ostensibly backing the GOP candidates his surrogates were attacking them for not doing enough to help the POTUS. Even though Loeffler and Perdue had joined the insane chorus to axe the Republican Secretary of State for incompetence in his execution of the November election they were being singled out for not getting the result reversed as their central mission. The pair were being challenged at their meetings for not having “Stopped the Steal”. 

 Lin Wood, one of Trump’s election lawyers, led the Georgia barrage. He escalated the assaults stating, inter alia, that Governor Kemp and Secretary Raffensperger would go to jail as they were under the pay of the Chinese Government. Many of his tweets were retweeted by the POTUS thus creating the confusion in the hardcore base. One of the retweets told the faithful to withhold their votes for Loeffler and Perdue unless they upped their attacks on the Republican establishment. Wood’s latest tweet basically foresaw an armed conflict, instructing the faithful to hunker down with all necessities including those encompassed by the Second Amendment. Wood even called for “corrupt” Chief Justice Roberts to resign.

Trump’s contribution rather than disassociate himself from this seditious tripe, was to remind Mitch, after he accepted the Electoral College outcome, “….that he got seventy five million votes - Too early to give up. Republican Party must learn to fight. People are angry”. So the wounded bear of a President was growing more and more angry each day rather than move to acceptance.

A report that Trump had foregone an opportunity to have another of his rallies in Georgia because of his anger towards the Georgia Republican establishment was conclusive evidence as to where his priorities lay. 

MCCONNELL’S DECISION IN THE HERE AND NOW

There has been no more amoral yet successful and determined leadership of the Republican Party than that of Mitch McConnell. He spent six years thwarting Obama’s agenda. He repeatedly attempted a cynical rejection of the Affordable Care Act for which he provided no replacement. He saw to it that it was his and Trump’s agenda that held sway loyally standing by him throughout. His objective was to appoint Federal Judges who had the right, literally, political and judicial philosophy, a task which he carried out relentlessly including the choice of the three Supreme Court Judges - this at the expense of addressing Covid relief. He will be best remembered for refusing a hearing for an Obama nomination to the Supreme Court because it was a year before the Presidential election. Then without batting an eyelid he pushed through in record time a Trump nominee two weeks before the recent Presidential contest.

It is reasonable to conclude that Mitch didn’t finally acknowledge Biden’s victory because it was the morally correct action. Rather it was because it was the least worst political action at this moment with the House Republicans set to challenge the decision of the Electoral College on January 6, 2021. Congress was due to break for the Xmas holidays soon. To let the situation just fester the Party could split or even worse become enveloped by Trumpism and never ever win the Presidency again. So after his declaration he had each and every member of the Republican Senate caucused not to assist the House Republicans in their effort to challenge the electoral college vote. He argued that that could result in Senate members being forced to vote against the POTUS. It remains to be seen whether this injunction will hold.

If McConnell cannot hold his caucus together there will be a public vote in the Senate as well as the House whether to back a totalitarian coup d’etat or not. The Senate Majority leader is desperately trying to avoid any of his caucus having to publicly declare themselves against Trump. It is much easier to be seen to voting in favor of accepting the Election College decision. A calculation McConnell has also made, based on the outcome of the 2020 down ballot results is that a significant portion of the electorate were prepared to vote for the Republican legislators but against Trump. If the latter remains the sole face of Republican policy then they will definitely lose the Presidency again 2024. 

WHAT WAS CENTRAL TO MCCONNELL’S CALCULATION

Notwithstanding McConnell’s decision he would have avoided it if there wasn’t such a concerted effort to overturn the electoral college - an action which the protagonists haven’t the votes for. He wanted to keep his Senate caucus out of it. If he couldn’t his personal leadership would also take a blow and the public would be spectators to a gigantic fight within the Republican Party, which Trump will tweet ad nauseam that anyone who opposes not re electing him President was disloyal to the Republican Party. 

McConnell’s knowing that Biden’s Presidency was a certainty needed to maintain his position of power. By his decision and concerted effort to keep the Senate out of it, his leadership of the Republican Party was unchallengeable. If the Republicans retained the Senate he would be the center of gravity of the GOP not Trump. If they didn’t he didn’t need to be seen upping the feud with Trump. McConnell, in his calculations, believed that the Republicans would win the Georgia senate elections. The chances of a hundred thousand vote reversal within three months on its face was difficult to envision. The oddsmakers agreed with him giving Perdue and Loeffler a sixty to forty chance of winning. The GOP big donors have pored in another hundred million into Georgia recently. McConnell must also have the internal canvassing figures to help him make his decision. He wasn’t about to base any decision on the external polls which had underrated Republican support time and again.

McConnell knew that the Republicans were going to hand Trump a major defeat by voting to override his veto of the Defense Bill and that another highly publicized defeat of Trump would be more evidence of disarray within the Party.

WHAT CAN GO WRONG?

While Trump and the Republican Party have come out in favor of voting for Loeffler and Perdue, Trump is ambivalent. His Georgian election lawyer, Wood is attacking the Georgian Republican establishment which is key component of the Trump assault. It does not require a stretch of imagination that Trump believes his overturning the election is of a higher priority than winning Georgia Senate seats.

 A recent Fox Poll showed that the current bohaai made Trump voters four times more likely than Biden’s not to vote in the Senate reruns. In addition the Stacey Adams ground game has not stopped to breathe and they claim to have registered tens of thousand new voters. Apparently eighty - one thousand of the absentee voter requests were new voters. The record numbers of long lines of voters in the first week, most of whom were African American with umbrellas, did not strike Jay H. Ell as the Republican Black vote coming out early. Then Wood and Trump are not going to stop their attacks on the Georgia elected Republicans. Wood’s appeal not to vote for Loeffler and Perdue has gained traction and he is not backing off on them for not doing enough for Trump.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Mitch McConnell, as brilliant a tactician as he is, is no more omnipotent than Trump was thought to be. Jay H. Ell remembers his dejected look after the late John McCain walked into the Senate and pointed his thumb down kiboshing Trump’s effort to disband the Affordable Care Act. McConnell had through his sheer strength of personality cobbled a majority to axe an increasingly popular health program even in red states. However there are variables that you just can’t control and some of them exist in Georgia and by definition with Trump.

WILL TRUMP’S CONTROL OF THE GOP LAST FOREVER?

At this point in time there is little doubt Trump’s control of the Republican Party is turning it into one that opposes democracy. Internal opposition folds as more and more of the Party join him in his relentless undemocratic crusade to overturn a democratic election. Trump is irreversibly committed never to concede that he is a loser hence he is manipulating the GOP to reverse his personal electoral loss by frank totalitarianism. His fight is on two broad fronts; politically and legally. With regard to the Republican citizenry seventy - two percent believe that the 2020 results are “inaccurate” thereby giving him clout to morph the Party’s principle agenda to retaining him as the President, while ignoring the more urgent issues such as the Georgia Senate elections and Covid management which he was never much interested in. The question is how long can Trump's dominance last?

THE LEGAL FIGHT - TRUMP’S “BIG ONE”

On the legal front Trump’s efforts are maniacal. There was a rainstorm of litigation, mostly bordering on the frivolous, challenging the results of the election that Trump had warned his red capped faithful that were going to be “rigged”. (The POTUS ignored the “rigged’ elections in the States that he actually won). The judicial outcomes of the sixty lawsuits before the “Big One” in the Supreme Court were consistent - they were ridiculed and met with judicial amazement and anger. In sixty appearances before the bench there was only minor one that didn’t end there and then. 

Then followed the “Big One”. a Supreme Court submission from the Texas Attorney General to nullify the votes of Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump persuaded seventeen other Republican State Attorney Generals to join in as well as canvassing every GOP Congressperson to sign on. The pressure resulted in a one hundred and twenty - six Republican members of the House to sign onto Trump’s and the Texas AG’s submission. (The legislators' complicity in spite of the fact that they won in the same “rigged” elections that Trump lost in).

There was not one constitutional lawyer of any standing that found an ounce of merit in Trump’s appeal to the Supreme Court which in effect asked them to overturn an election discarding tens of millions of votes with no legal or factual basis offered - just conspiracy theories and illogical suppositions. 

What is outside Trump’s comprehension is the inability of others to see all dealings in life as transactional. He appointed three Judges and they owe him. What he doesn’t understands is that for the most part judges take their roles seriously. Their world views may be distorted but that is the framework they base their decisions on. As strict Constitutionalists there was no way they could interpret that a State can dictate to another how to run its internal affairs. Nor was there any legal basis of the “standing” of the complainants. Nor did they outline or prove any illegality which violates the Constitution. So it was never a question whether Trump’s “Big One” would be turfed out it was when and what would be the ruling if any other than dismissal.

So not surprisingly within a few days the unanimous ruling of the Court was that the complainant had “no standing” to even have the case listed. Two judges stated that they would have listed the case but they would have ruled against every submission. Trump states there are still legal challenges to follow!. Needless to say he did not hide his anger towards the Supreme Court Justices. Just like space is infinity so is Trump’s tweeting. 

TRUMP’S DEFIANCE OF POLITICAL AND CONSTITUTIONAL REALITY

While the legal fight fruitlessly carries on Trump is determined to hang onto power and defy every Constitutional norm in the process.  He obviously feels he is in a dominant enough position to call the shots in the GOP. The question is how long can the Republican leadership allow this to carry on for. He dictates the agenda demanding loyalty to him before party and country. The story is all about him not Georgia where he has sown confusion amongst the Republicans already. Sooner or later and it better be sooner as it is already getting too late McConnell and McCarthy will have to step in or the Trump take over will be complete. 

On December 8 which is known as ‘Safe Harbor” day when the electoral results are locked in by State Legislatures, Trump was asked why he hadn’t invited Biden’s transitional Covid team, to his discussions on the vaccine distribution and administration. He replied that, “The next administration has not yet been determined!”  More sinister are the growing threats of violence law makers and election officials are being subjected to. The latter not being condemned by the Republican establishment let alone Trump himself. On the contrary, he has been accused of provoking them. All this is becoming more and more closely meeting the definition of an attempted coup d’etat. 

GOP HAVE TO ACT  - THEIR CONSTITUENCIES ARE AT LOGGERHEADS IN THE MIDST OF GEORGIA’S MAKE OR BREAK ELECTION

The question remains how long can the GOP establishment allow this erratic state of affairs to continue where Trump and a few of his likeminded cronies lead the party and country on a merry dance. In this state of confusion they may well lose Georgia and the Senate. 

As the late and lamented Grand Old Party splinters further apart into factions there are really only two constituencies that dominate for the moment - the base and Trump and his sycophantic inner circle. The others: the elected State Officials, State Legislatures, the Legislators on a national level and the Republican National Committee are important bit players as the drama unfolds on the national scene.  But for practical purposes they are as impotent as the Party was while Joseph McCarthy and the Trumps’ former lawyer Roy Cohn on their own smashed the rule of law and due process ruining countless careers in the process. 

Congressional Republicans

To begin with the Republicans in Congress would not even support a motion indirectly acknowledging Joseph Biden as the President elect. This on December 8 when all but Hawaii had registered their electors according to the popular vote. On December 14 the electoral College formerly tote up the score which will give Joe Biden 306 and Donald Trump 232. This decision is acknowledged on January 4, 2021 in Congress. Republicans are already making plans to challenge the electoral college decision, i. e. the results of the 2020 election. 

The Congressional Republicans feel most vulnerable to Trump getting behind an opponent in a Primary so with notable exceptions they just keep quiet, A survey conducted by The Washington Post indicted that about ten percent of the GOP in the House of Representatives were prepared to admit, without their names being published, that they regarded Joe Biden as President Elect. Trump’s response was predictable. He couldn’t believe that there were that many RINOS, (Republicans in name only). in Congress. He wanted a list of their names. Thus far the Senate Republicans have not publicly agreed to go along with challenging of the election on January 4. However whichever you look at it, the behavior of the Republicans at the National level  have not enhanced American democracy giving the green light for the base to become more and more angry.

Elected State Officials and State Legislatures.

The elected State Officials are the ones that have really stuck to their guns and Constitutional oaths. They have been the subject of abuse and pressure which have been on public display especially in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania - whether they were Republican or Democrat they have been the targets of threats of violence to them and their families. Some publicly swear their loyalty to Trump but that is irrelevant. However if Trump or totalitarianism are still around next Primary Time they need to seek different employment. The State Legislatures themselves are ambivalent but when push came to shove they ratified the electoral results in spite of sustained pressure from The Leader himself to declare him the winner. 

The Base

This leaves the base which is made up of the evangelicals, the disgruntled blue collar workers and miners, the White Supremacists and militia types and the traditional Republicans who just could not bear to vote for a Democrat. They are either mesmerized, deluded or purely cynical. This is the mob that believed that Obama was born in Kenya and every other bit of fantasy that has been part of Trump’s free flowing consciousness, They have forgotten, that the coal mines haven’t reopened, the factories haven’t returned, the wall hasn’t been built, (presumably because Mexico hasn’t paid for it), that the “drained” swamp is overflowing with Trump allies, and that they supposedly would be “winning” so much that they would beg “Mr. President” to stop “winning”. Instead in Georgia he told them they and he were all “victims” and they swallowed it whole. 

Trump told them to vote by mail in Georgia which was one of the arguments for telling the Supreme Court to chuck the whole election result out. Well at least the Evangelicals got their three judges who if he had his way he would chuck out as well a they have also stabbed him in the back. The very fact that after all that has happened the cult are still obsessed with him means unless you put antipsychotic drugs in their water they are not going to change anytime soon.  

So can the GOP dump Trump even if they wanted to?

CAN TRUMP BE DUMPED AND WHY HE IS UNLIKELY TO WIN IN 2024

 Donald is the de facto leader of the GOP. However secretly most of the Republican legislators will tell you, off the record, that they hate his guts. The Republican National Committee gently invited a number of prospective candidates to discuss the 2024 Presidential election and left him out. All they had to tell him, Jay H. Ell supposes, is that he cannot run for a third term.

The question is what can stop the Republican Party from becoming a totalitarian Party? It would be much easier if they were able to dump Trump but those policy makers, movers and shakers who opposed his take over bid are long gone and have joined the Lincoln Project, Republicans against Trump,  Republicans for Biden or have become commentators on the networks. However, to prove how ambivalent the Republican legislators really are both Houses just passed the Defense Bill with veto proof majorities. Trump said he was dead against it  and has vetoed it. The veto should now be overriden which will be the first time. This is war!

The good news for those still left in the Republican Party and want to save it is that Trump is clueless about how he would manage the Party in the four years running up to 2024. Trump acts best when he is responding to pressure - he is a better “victim” than he is a “winner”. So how he maps out a four year strategy while not in the presidency is not evident. The racists and militia groups will stick with him as they have no other home. His cult are not going to just let him fade away unless there is leadership challenging the Trump mumbo jumbo.. Much of his current position has been because the legislative representatives have either gone along with him or for the most part shut up.

Unless the Republican leadership make some move soon the Republican agenda between now and the inauguration will be speculation on Trump. - “Will he hold a massive inauguration of his own on January 20?, Will he scream at NATO?  Will he cooperate with Biden on distribution on the vaccine? Will he pardon himself and who else? Or, “He told us Hunter Biden was a crook he just got the country wrong…….”. Georgia will just have to play second fiddle.

After Georgia, if Trump survives legal challenges and decides to run in 2024 it is likely that he will easily win the Republican nomination. All the Trump wannabes have no chance as he is the real deal and no one in the center has the following to take him on. Equally probably he won’t win the Presidency. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by three million votes and by seven million in 2020. Are his psychotic behaviors, lack of care in the Covid pandemic going to increase his popularity? Are the suburbanites likely to flock back to him in Phoenix, Denver, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Milwaukee because he is acting insanely now?

The Republicans better wake up to the fact that Trump is their problem and they better start screaming that the “Emperor has no clothes”. 

TRUMP’S ALTERNATE REALITIES

Trump’s main delusion at the moment is that he won the election. He can carry on with that fantasy and prepare for the rigged election in 2024 or whatever grabs his attention whether it is his own TV Station or commandeering a new one now that FOX occasionally tells its viewers what is really going on. But remember the audience tired of him in his greatest role “The Apprentice”. Whatever happens he just won’t call it quits. He will find something new to grab their attention - maybe that Biden wasn’t born in Scranton and smoked pot with Clinton which Hunter imported illegally from China and Rudi can prove it!

There is one reality he cannot dodge forever - the growing death toll and morbidity from Covid. Nor can he escape the social and economic havoc that the pandemic has wreaked in its wake. As the virus spreads across the vast red inner America sparsely populated and hopelessly under doctored, some of the faithful that become victims will no longer be able to deny that it exists. As Biden becomes center stage with his efforts to mitigate, ameliorate and vaccinate some of Trump’s cult have to become disbelievers. There is going to be a long dark winter and the devastation will run into Spring. None of this will boost the Trump legacy. 

BIDEN

Biden has an opportunity to right many of the wrongs and create stability and normality. He has the skills, knowledge, diplomacy, coolness under pressure and empathy to convince the country that he is the President of all the states of America. If he wins the Senate and a few Republicans who are anxious not to have the Trump legacy figuring in their obituaries voting with him he can move mountains. The GOP can get back to their traditional policies attacking the “tax and spend” Democrats and we can all live happily ever after.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Much will depend on the Georgian Senate election. As Lindsey Graham put it in an interview on one of the conspiracy radio talk shows, “If we don’t win we are screwed”. What should have been a pushover for the Republican incumbents has become a nail biter as the base are torn between their own local leaders and their cult leader. 

Do you think the POTUS congratulated the Biden/Harris duo on being elected Time Person of the Year? At least he didn’t lose to Anthony Fauci?

GEORGIA, GEORGIA - GEORGIA’S ON MY MIND

With each and every day in this post election period bringing sensational headlining news with even Donald Trump having to fight to dominate the stage, Ray Charle’s evocative rendition of Hoagy Carmichael’s Georgia On My Mind keeps playing again and again in my mind. For Georgia is where this whole reality show is now taking central stage. The finale is set for January 5, 2021, a fortnight before Biden’s inauguration, when two Senate seats will be decided which will determine which party controls the chamber. In fact the whole tempo and impact of the new administration’s policies on the immediate future in the country may well be depend on “Sweet Georgia”. In the meantime Trump, his ragbag burlesque crowd of a legal team and various committed diehards keep on their quixotic challenge that his election loss was as a result of a gigantic conspiracy involving Hugo Chavez, voting machine makers, Republican and Democratic heads of States, battalions of dead voters and the like. Much of Trump’s recent anger has been focussed towards the Republicans in this Southern sunbelt state, Georgia.  

The two Senate seats are currently held by Republicans and all things being equal the Republican should retain them comfortably. Incumbents very rarely lose interim elections. Long time Republican Georgia has been accused of voter suppression and these very elections are as a result of one of their more obtuse strategies to achieve this end. In Georgia they abandoned primaries for the Senate elections. Rather In the general election it is a free for all, Democrats and Republicans competing on the same ballot. If none of the candidates reach fifty percent the top two have a run off. The rationale behind this absurdity is that historically the large black electorate’s attendance second time around was woefully down all but ensuring that the GOP candidate would be elected. The problem for the GOP is this time around, for a ton of reasons, the future ain’t what it used to be. 

STACEY ABRAMS

Problem number one for the GOP is activist and authoress Stacey Abrams and the changing demographics of Georgia. In 2018 Stacey Abrams, then the minority Democratic leader of the State Senate gave the Republican nominee for Governor an unprecedented run for his money. It was an acrimonious encounter as Kemp, the former Secretary of State, had axed seven hundred thousand voters from the rolls, the majority of whom just happened to be African American. However Abram’s showing in the Gubernatorial race did not just happen. Five years earlier she had founded the “New Georgia Project” which conducted grassroots campaigns to register voters. Following her narrow loss at becoming the first African American Governor of Georgia she founded “Fair Fight” which had a host of objectives which were directed at getting younger voters registered, protected and to the polls in twenty of the most vulnerable states. She also produced a highly successful documentary on Amazon entitled, “All in the Fight for Democracy”. Biden won Georgia by thirteen thousand votes and the reason the Democrats are in with a fighting chance in the current runoff is because of her efforts. And the work continues sine the November election “The New Georgia Project” has registered five hundred thousand new voters. 

There are more than a few African American women involved in get out the vote movements some of whom have been going for a decade. Then there is an influx of progressive groups from other states that have joined the struggle. The Sunset group from New York has as its objective to register twenty thousand who will turn eighteen by January 5, 2021. They have also raised nearly four hundred thousand dollars. They have contacted their supporters who might well give the Democratic Party ala Georgia a miss to exhort them to vote

THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES

It is fair to say that the GOP candidates would not be Jay H. Ell’s choices for this crucial encounter. Both were investigated for insider trading related to stock sales following top secret briefings. David Perdue had two thousand five hundred and ninety six trades in one term in the Senate - a record. Several of these were associated with movements of stock which could well have been the subject of secret briefings of his cybersecurity committee.  One stock that he bought and sold sixty - one times related to a cybersecurity company FireEye which had Federal Government contracts, Perdue’s timeous tradings could fill a book. While no charges followed and both were cleared of wrong doing the whole sordid mess won’t go away. David Perdue who is running against a highly talented Jon Ossoff who literally made mince meat of him in the debates portraying him as a greedy self serving crook who had done nothing for the Covid afflicted. Perdue who refused to debate against Ossoff ever again is part of the Georgian scenery and has a loyal following. Under normal circumstances he would be hard to dislodge. 

Then there is Kelly Loeffler having been appointed, against Trump’s advice, to replace a retiring Republican Senator. She is the wealthiest member in Congress. Since then however she has done everything to prove that if Lindsey Graham would just get out of the way then she would prove that she was Trump’s number one acolyte. She donates her Senate salary to anti LGBTQ and anti abortion groups. She Is more pro gun than Davey Crocket. Her husband is Head of the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange - not exactly the peoples’ candidate. Her opponent is the highly respected Reverend Warnock who heads Martin Luther King’s former church. Highly articulate but has not been that politically sensitive to issues in his sermons in the past. However he stands out like a saint next to Loeffler.

The two sets of candidates are literally linked for better or for worse. The Republicans’ biggest problem is Trump. They need his support as he did after all get seventy - four million votes. He did however lose in Georgia. He is also conducting an all out assault on the Republican State leadership for simply not overturning the vote and giving him the electoral College victory. 

TRUMP THE REPUBLICAN PARTY THE STOLEN ELECTION AND THE GEORGIAN REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT

To this day Trump has not conceded the election. He is the victim of a giant conspiracy. He has pursued this in the courts till it reached the stage that his conventional lawyers backed off. They were obviously no longer prepared to sully their reputations by presenting obvious garbage to the bench and be subject to the judiciary’s scorn and abuse. For those that don’t understand the byzantine plot which toppled him as narrated by lawyers and his good self he has an explanation that shows his lack of insight and megalomania. He argues, One - “He is the Republican Party”. Two - “The GOP gained a ton of seats in 2020”. Three -“It is statistically impossible that he who is responsible for the latter’s victories to get fewer votes than them!”. 

Now the Republican Legislators are going along with this fantasy because whether they like it or not he may not be the country’s choice but he is their base’s. It is all a bit uncomfortable as he fires anyone who does not concur with his learned assessment. This particular so after lapdog Attorney General, Bill Barr, who otherwise believes that Trump has divine rights, concluded after investigation, that there was no malfiscience that could have changed the outcome of the Presidential election.

The question is how is this charade playing in Georgia where it really matters for the moment?

GEORGIA AH GEORGIA…….THE ROAD LEADS BACK TO YOU

So Georgia is bearing the brunt of Trump’s frustration because that is where the action is and where he will get the biggest bang for his buck. There are number of Republican constituencies that he is at loggerheads with including the Georgia State elected officials, Trump and his band of uncontrollable lawyers, the Republican establishment of Georgia, the two Republican candidates and of course the Republican base are not on the same page. 

 Trump has attempted to pressure every battleground State but none have the future of the control of the Senate coming up. He has lambasted Governor Kemp for not negating the certified election results, mumbling that he never should have supported him, and in private referring to him as a “moron” and a “nut job”.  But the Georgian elected official that has come most under Trump’s repeated wrath, is Brad Raffensperger, the Secretary of State who ultimately certified the election. Trump has called him “an enemy of the people” He pressured the two Republican candidates to call for his resignation. However the latter has given as good as his got. In a series of public defenses he has accused Trump of throwing him under the bus, As the days have moved on Raffensperger has become bolder and bolder. In response to yet another tweet from Trump, he replied that “Even after this office requested that President Trump quell the violent rhetoric being born out of winning claims of states he obviously lost he tweeted, “Expose the massive voter fraud in Georgia”. Trump in the meantime conducted two rambling incoherent interviews, one with Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo and the other with himself on FaceBook where he trotted out the well worn schtick.

Raffensperger backed his Voting Implementation Manager who had laced into Trump and his team of lawyers whose rhetoric had resulted in threats to innocent election workers who were doing their jobs. A twenty - year old contractor for the voting machines had received death threats as well as others who even needed protection. He told Trump to “Stop inspiring these people to commit violence”. He cautioned, "Someone is going to get killed". Most significantly he exhorted the two Republican candidates to denounce Trump’s behavior as well. No way was that about to happen because they had already backed Trump's call for Raffensperger to resign.

Added to the mix was Trump’s team of lawyers who were piling logs onto the fire. Joe DiGenova suggested that Trump’s fired cybersecurity chief who had stated that there was no evidence of any vote tampering  be taken out and shot. Then Linn Wood and Sidney Powell pleaded with Georgians not to vote in the upcoming Senate election till Trump’s claims of fraud were investigated. These exhortations were not contradicted by the POTUS. However the local Republican establishment led by Saxby Chambliss and John Izakson, former Republican Senators, who had previously backed the Secretary of State’s claim of a free and fair election, to plead with the Republican base to come out and vote in this crucial election.

Nobody knows where the Republican base will finally come down in this massive family fight, They are definitely agitated as illustrated at a meeting chaired by the Republican National Committee Chairperson at a “Meet and Greet” meeting. There she met with a rowdy crowd who countered her electioneering by asking her why they should donate money and bother to vote if the result is already decided. They quoted Trump’s mantra about the machines and many of his talking points. Her pleas apparently fell on deaf ears,

So it is fair to say that the Republican Party are in disarray in Georgia. However parsing the senatorial contests that led to the January 5 run off they have room to spare. In the November contest the combined Republican votes were well ahead of the Democrats. However they obviously feel it is worth the risk to have Donald do one more  of his mega virus spreading events. And risk it is because although he will have had drummed into his head that he must just laud the candidates and get out the vote out that is not on what has been on his mind of late. Rather he has focussed on how the election was stolen from him, making outlandish demands to politically alter the outcome, attacking Georgian officials, collect more money for his slush fund and work on pardons for his family. 

HAIL TO THE CHIEF IN GEORGIA

Preceding the Trump jamboree Georgians were addressed by three high power surrogates - Barack Obama, Vice President Pence and Stacey Abrams. The tone set was decidedly sedate compared to what was to be the main event the next day.

Well Trump could hardly have inspired early confidence in the Republican establishment that he would stick to script when prior to leaving to Georgia he called Governor Kemp requesting him to call a special State Legislature session and persuade Republicans to overturn the Biden victory and send electors that would vote for him. This interlude was not kept secret resulting in Trump supporters surrounding the Governor’s residence demanding he accede to Trump’s request. Well Trump never disappoints and in-between reminding the crowd that the Senate was for all the marbles and that they must go and vote for Loeffler and Purdue it was an hour and a half of grievances, victimhood, lies and attacks on the local Republican gentry. He never bothered to square why they should go out and vote in a rigged election. It doesn’t matter cause the cult lapped it all up and there were thousands of them. He resolved facing them as a  loser by telling them he was a winner. He had a new logic as to why this was so - no Republican had lost the Presidency after winning Florida and Ohio!

FROM NOW ON

So with a month to go the world will concentrate on Georgia. Already a record amount of cash has been spent and collected. While the Democratic small donations are double the Republicans the latter’s big donors have weighed in. The polls, that have had a bad run, put the Democrats ahead but not nearly far enough to be relevant. However a million absentee ballots have been applied for which has been to the Democrats advantage in the past and indicative of their ground game , If the squabbling and idiocy carries on within the Republic Party its not going to help their cause. 

In the meanwhile Trump has fooled his adoring followers, who believe they are donating to the defense team, to put over two hundred million dollars in his own personal political action committee. Although the Republican Party want to forget about him and have organized a 2024 election strategy meeting without him he controls the base. They can’t win the Presidency with him and they can’t win without him. For the record Kemp and Raffensperger haven’t totally abandoned ship, they face an urgent interdict in Federal Court on Monday to explain why they have purged two hundred thousand votes from the rolls.

This is a fight for the ages. The Democrats have to hope that Trump has angered enough Republicans and independents who will be disgusted enough to leave the locals and vote against him via Warner and Ossoff. The latter having the toughest battle by far. 

RAY CHARLES HAS THE LAST WORD 

I said Georgia, No peace I find, Just that old, Sweet song, that keeps you Georgia on my mimd.

I

LEADERSHIP MATTERS: OBAMA, TRUMP AND BIDEN

This tumultuous political era in America can be defined by three elected leaders, Presidents, Obama, Trump and Biden. While each is reflective of his own time and circumstance they will be seen to have put their own unique stamp on the destiny of a hectic period in history. A history which has been complicated by a viral pandemic that is threatening the health and economy of America and  the world. All this in the midst of the challenges of a media revolution, a menace to our planet through climate change, globalization, widening financial inequities, population shifts due to political instability and the deindustrialization of economies resulting in growing insecurity. All the latter has seen the emergence of radical self proclaimed saviors known as populists - a situation from which America was not spared. 

The twenty - first century had barely begun when America elected an African American to the highest office in the land, an event which was symbolically regarded as the affirmation of the aspirational Declaration of Independence which declared that,“All men were born equal”. Barack Obama, America’s forty forth President, had fulfilled the American Dream that there was no obstacle to any American achieving the greatest heights regardless of race creed or color. 

Obama’s two term reign was beset and then followed by a white backlash which opened the wounds of racism that have festered ever since the South lost the 1861 Civil War over slavery. This reaction catapulted an unashamed racist, Donald Trump into the White House, whose determination it was to keep whites as the dominant race in America. The forty - fifth President’s naked disdain for anything other than his own needs and objectives, open support of white supremacy groups and disinterest in cruelty and even apparent murder of those whose skins weren’t white lead to his ouster after only one term. Joseph Biden, Obama’s Vice President, a seasoned conventional politician, left of center and known for his decency replaced Trump in a convincing victory to become President - elect and the forty - sixth incumbent. 

While the coalitions which both Trump and Biden assembled had various needs, it is acknowledged that the crucial States that decided the outcome were in the Midwest and the crucial voters were the blue collar and middle class white workers that had abandoned Obama for Trump. Whether the arc of American history continues forward or regresses time will tell but it is instructive to examine the leadership of these three Presidents and the role they have played in this transformative and unsettling era in American politics.

WHO BECOMES THE COUNTRY’S LEADER AND DOES IT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE?

There are those that argue that who the Commander in Chief is, is irrelevant. It is the situation that will result in change and the leader is merely one of many who could have effected the same outcome. This is only a partial truth as would six million Jews been gassed had Germany elected another leader to resuscitate the decimated post WWI Germany economy? If it hadn’t been for Churchill’s foresight, perseverance, eloquence and bulldog tenacity would the Western World be under fascist rule now? 

The time, place and circumstances do play a role in the emergence of who will be the chief executive . If the allies had not placed such onerous truce conditions on Germany there might not have been need for a fascist Hitler to reassure the Germans they were the master race and the Jews were to blame for their woes.  Had Hitler stuck to his deal with Chamberlain destiny would have kept Churchill in the fringes where he had languished for a decade with his drumbeat of the danger of the Third Reich.  

So there is no doubt that who the leader is makes all the difference. Both factors came into play as Ted Kennedy illustrated when he counseled the inexperienced Barack Obama as to whether to run or not , “The time chooses not you”. 

BARACK OBAMA FORTY - FOURTH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

While Shakespeare opined in The Twelfth Night - “Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them”, there is little doubt that there have to be some of all those characteristics in all leaders. However there are few that could have had a greater share of “greatness thrust open them” than Barack Obama. He had a meteoric rise to fame having served only two years in the Senate when he was literally drafted into the candidacy for the Democratic nomination. He exuded charisma and hope, especially to the youth, who had been sickened by the duplicity and the never ending carnage of the Iraq war. Cynicism pervaded as “politics as usual” appeared to be immovable. In no time he was in demand having spoken at the Democratic Convention of John Kerry to a screaming audience who greeted him like a rock star. 

Obama never ran for the Democratic nomination as a black American. He was not a Jesse Jackson or an Al Sharpton, he was a reasoned caring empathetic candidate. The fact that he won the crucial Primary of Iowa convincingly with its three percent white population told it all. He addressed race once on that first campaign, that was when he became embroiled in a controversy as a result of the radicalism of his Pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Initially he explained the Pastor’s feelings in a historical context but when the media produced a string of outrageous comments from previous sermons the Presidential hopeful condemned them in such unequivocal terms that the controversy was no longer.

 In fact he steered clear of racial controversy wherever he could. However he felt personally involved at the seemingly unnecessary killing of blacks by law officers. He became emotional with the Trayvon Martin shooting, “It could have been my son. It could have been me thirty - five years ago” Another major cause celebre that unbelievably caused a massive backlash was when a nationally recognized black Harvard Professor was arrested by a police officer when trying to enter his locked house. The fact that the Officer knew that this was the home of Louis Henry Gates Jnr. resulted in Obama labelling his action as “stupid”. 

The Forty - Fourth POTUS was the epitome of what Americans believed their leader should be. He was dignified, decent, honest a family man and humble. His wife Michelle was an impeccably polished first lady. His policies demeanor and posture confirmed America as the world’s role model on the world stage. His election inspired such global optimism that he unprecedentedly was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace in anticipation of his contributions on the world stage. His landmark achievement which the Republicans over the years have tried seventy times to overthrow legislatively and have challenged in court again and again has finally, after nearly a century of trying heralded in the concept of Universal health care. This followed on the rescuing of the economy the moment he walked into the door of the WhiteHouse.

He did nothing politically to engender the anger and the hatred directed at him that grew to a crescendo. They marched in the streets with posters likening him to Hitler and Stalin. The right wing Tea Party faction which virtually took over the GOP was spawned. He was in fact a moderate by every standard. Yet the animosity grew and grew.  Mitch McConnell , the Republican controlled the Senate openly stated that he would do absolutely nothing to work and compromise with the POTUS. Conspiracy theory after conspiracy theory exploded in social media. The one that really struck was the birther theory which in effect claimed that he wasn’t an American and therefore an illegitimate President. The public face of that lie was none other than Donald J. Trump. Obama largely ignored this mendacious smear and completed his second term with his historic achievement being the expansion of healthcare for the tens of millions in America who now had coverage. 

Obama initiated the transition to Trump’s term within two days of his razor thin victory inviting him to the WhiteHouse. According to Ben Rhodes, an advisor to Obama, all Trump wanted to discuss was the large crowds they both were able to draw. (Little did both of them know that Trump was to start his Presidency with the big lie that his inauguration  crowd was the largest ever. With the forty - fourth Chief drawing nearly two million and his successor approximately a half a million, and photos for all the world to see, Trump set the mendacious tone of his Presidency on day one.

Obama reflected the hope of his time - he stood out as the man of the moment who also happened to be black. Throughout his terms he worked closely with Vice President Biden and the two became extremely close. In eight years of his Presidency the world changed and his very blackness brought out the latent racism in America.

DONALD TRUMP FORTY - FIFTH PRESIDENT OF THE USA

Trump shared with Obama the characteristic of charisma - that is where it begun and ended. In many ways it was a quirk of history that the man who had pored such venom on the first president of color was to be his successor. Trump a real estate mogul and TV star had been in the public eye for decades and often had discussed the possibility of running for President.

 In 2016 he promised the world to the out of work factory employees and miners by rebuilding America’s infrastructure, reopening the coal mines, tax relief for all and getting factories back to America. He also concentrated on what he described as Making America Great Again, (MAGA), and limiting immigration. The discontent in the Republican Party had been exacerbated by George Bush’s Presidency and the takeover by the Tea Party and this outsider romped home in the Primary, beating a field of stars, to become their nominee.

In his appeal to those crucial MidWest workers he was able to connect at a gut level. He, Trump, too was outsider, but he had made it big time. He too was a victim of the elites who understood their plight while exuding omniscience and confidence, “I alone can fix America’s problems”. In return he demanded loyalty to him and not the State. In fact he built a cult. While Obama said, “There are no blue states or red states. There is only the United States”, Trump openly discriminated against the blue states. He made it quite clear that he welcomed White Supremacists as part of his coalition and had no empathy for those whose skins weren’t white. 

His policies and behavior were a mirror image of those of Obama. The only consistent thread in his policy was to reverse whatever Obama had achieved whether it be on environmental issues, health care, immigration or the like. Internationally to the horror of America’s allies he was in constant conflict with them and allied with America’s adversary Russia. He cozied up to dictators such as Erdogan, Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong Un. In short within four years America became the polecat of the world. 

His administration was incompetent, self serving, racked with cronyism and nepotism and he defied every norm written and unwritten refusing to co operate with the constitutionally mandated body, Congress, who had the duty to oversee, his Office. His demand to a foreign leader before releasing Congress voted aid to get him dirt on his prospective Presidential rival, resulted in impeachment.  All the deficiencies of his Presidency were on display in his criminal irresponsibility in managing the Covid crisis. America the richest and most powerful country in the world had the most abysmal record as he made no attempt at co coordinating the response.

Trump was defeated in the 2020 election principally as a result of a bigger turn out of whites as well as African Americans for Biden in those crucial Mid Western States. Nearly three weeks after the election he had not acknowledged his defeat. 

It is fair to say that the Republicans had no other potential nominee that remotely had Trump’s racist and obsessive anti Obama agenda. Only he and he alone could have evoked this racist response from his ever loyal followers and reopened the Civil War wounds. 

 JOSEPH BIDEN FORTY - SIXTH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

It is not often that the candidate most prepared and experienced for the Presidency is elected. Joe Biden has aspired to the highest office since starting on his political career a half a century ago. However his  political skills, deep knowledge of the issues, managerial ability, empathetic and compromising attitudes did not add up to the magnetism needed to gaining the nomination of his party. However it was these very attributes that in the current chaotic scenario that gained him first the Democratic nomination and then the Presidency. His candidacy was rescued by his career long support of African Americans who are the backbone of the Democratic Party. The de facto leader of the African American caucus, Jim Clyburn, threw his full weight behind hum, “We know Joe and Joe knows us”, In addition to that he was from the MidWest where he had long standing involvement with the trade unions. 

Biden’s campaign was controversial to say the least. Acting in a responsible role modeling way in the midst of the pandemic addressing only safely distanced masked crowds he exuded calm. For the most part he managed it from the basement and watched Trump run against himself.  While Trump continued with his virus spreader campaign rallies throughout the country Biden stressed the need to undo his four years. He deemed this life and death campaign as a battle for “The Soul of the Nation”. American values were on the ballot. He focussed on the pandemic contrasting his empathetic and experienced managerial and leadership style. He would accept ownership of the response to its detection, prevention, spread, treatment and economic devastation, contrasting with Trump’s almost total disinterest and narrative that the pandemic was not such a big deal. 

His role as Vice President for eight years had allowed the international world to greet his election with a sigh of relief. He was trusted and on day one Americas allies would once again be their allies and their adversaries their adversaries. International organizations would be rejoined. 

However, in spite of the fact, that he denied that he was going to be an Obama third term, the subtext of all of this was obvious to all. Obama had moved the Arc of American Moral history forward simply by his election, Trump had resisted it and attempted to return to the “good old white days” and now Obama’s Vice President with a black woman Vice President had defeated Trump. 

There is very little doubt in Jay H. Ell’s mind that no other candidate other than Joe Biden could have beaten this incumbent President with his loyal cult. 

THE THREE PRESIDENTS

Both circumstances and unique personalities played a role in the election of Obama, Trump and Biden. The former two both charismatic and were phenoms. While they represented the two opposite poles of American history, had totally different styles and personalities they were highly talented and skillful at projecting what they symbolized. Arising however out of the ashes of Trump’s attempting at halting history Biden was the perfect choice for an anguished society. So indeed the time and circumstances played a central role in the emergence of all three - once again affirming the Shakespearian dictum, “Cometh the Hour Cometh the Man”.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

History awaits the next chapter. Whichever way this is viewed the three will be inextricably bound. Looking at the 2020 election results realistically a crucial small percentage rejected Trump but swallowed his message accounting for the success of down ballot Republicans for Congress. History will marvel at the fact that by and large his cult bought his Covid 19 narrative with over a quarter of a million dead that it was nothing serious and they should just carry on with life.. Seventy - four million Americans voted for him in a defeat he will never recognize. So he still will be a factor in the future.