With events moving faster than the body politic can follow, the Democratic Speaker of the House wasted no time in instructing the House Judiciary Committee to draw up articles of impeachment against President Trump. The speed and decisiveness of her actions, only six weeks after announcing the beginning of proceedings against Trump, have rocked the body politic. The Democratic leader has choreographed a tight irrefutable case leaving Trump's enablers with no possibility of challenging the facts and the POTUS himself appearing an unprincipled hack in contrast to the dignified House Leader. She is calling the shots and he is playing second fiddle.
Pelosi is operating under the accepted wisdom that whatever case is developed twenty Senate Republicans are unlikely to vote with the Democrats to remove the POTUS from office. Pelosi, who felt forced to go ahead with impeachment in the first place, is anxious to return to the business of electing Democrats to the legislature and the WhiteHouse. She has no desire to keep Trump center stage where he loves to be.
The Democratic Speaker, pressured by her caucus and the gravity of Trump’s abuse of power to press on, knew that the decision was a calculated risk from the get go. On the other hand if even just a few Senate Republicans cannot stomach the 'treasonous' behavior of Trump and vote for his removal it would represent a major victory for the Democrats.
PELOSI OUTMANEUVERS TRUMP
If Pelosi’s principle objective was to remove Trump from office she would stick around waiting for the courts and all the other side issues that might produce the public groundswell that would force the Senate to respond. These other issues include his personal lawyer, Rudi Giuliani, being investigated, Lev Parnas, his lawyer’s sidekick fessing up to the House Intelligence Committee of the WhiteHouse’s role in the Ukrainian conspiracy, his tax returns released and the courts forcing the witnesses such Chief of Staff Mulvaney and former National Security Advisor Bolton to appear before Congress, to mention but a few of the factors that will strengthen the case against Trump. Pelosi knows that whenever those events happen it will still help the Democrats in the election. It is obvious that the Democratic belief is that they can beat Trump second time around if they can concentrate on health care, income equality, climate change and gun control, and allow the megalomaniac Trump to run against himself as he did in the midterms.
Pelosi left all wandering as to what the extent of the articles of impeachment might cover when she once again affirmed that this was really all about Russia.
There is a persistant theory out there that Pelosi can get the articles of impeachment voted on and not send them to the Senate. Then they will be hanging over the President if and when she is ready to move. Jay H. Ell does not believe that is The Speaker’s modus operandi.
TRUMP REACTION IS PREDICTABLY ALL OVER THE SHOW
Ironically, Pelosi’s dramatic decision was welcomed by both sides - Trump because he cannot tolerate the uncertainty. Having shrugged of his disastrous international visit, where he literally was a laughing stock, and bolstered by the booming America economy he is gung ho for the battle. He feels emboldened as his poll numbers remain around forty percent which he feels keeps him in striking distance of a second term. Trump is ultimately placing his reliance on the fact that the Senate has a Republican majority and that he will never be forced out.
Nevertheless his messaging is still chaotic. He hailed Pelosi’s thrust to expedite the process while on the other hand he claimed that the system was rigged and should be abandoned. Added to the general confusion he creates he refused once again to be represented at the Judicial Hearings weakening a central argument of his House Judicial Committee enablers who cry that he is not receiving due process. Pelosi's objective is the 2020 election and to put the focus back on the issues that resonated in her gigantic success in the midterms, which was to ignore Trump as much as possible.
This speeding up of the probe is counter to the House Republican strategy who have sought, with Trump, to delay and delay wailing that the investigation is being obscenely rushed. They even selected as their Constitutional expert, who to put it at its kindest has regularly changed his outlook on what constitutes impeachable behavior, whose only argument was that Trump’s impeachment requires more witnesses and investigation. A rapid conclusion is also out of sync with the overall Trump game plan where he is forcing court battles on his failure to allow members of his administration to be witnesses or to produce documents with the ridiculous argument that the Constitution allows him absolute power. Even he knows that argument will eventually fail but by then he reckons he will be reelected. Trump’s team can hardly argue a more measured investigation now that their fearless leader has screamed “Bring it on”.
There is little doubt that Trump will make his obsequious defenders task harder by his contradictory attitude and his culpatory tweets. However, Trump doesn’t care a hoot about the mess and the fools he is making of his supporters. He expects their blind support as a divine right. As Cabinet Member Rick Perry opined and he doubtless agrees that he had been ordained by G-D.
SO IT IS OFF TO THE RACES - THE DEFENSE OF TRUMP
Trump will accelerate the number of rallies and his tweets although his legal team will tell him to shut up. He is going to fight this politically. He is already putting out a ridiculous witness list including, Hunter Biden, Chairman Schiff, the whistleblower and Speaker Pelosi. What Trump does not fully comprehend is that he cannot stand up in the Senate and spout rubbish.
His defense is threefold, a counter narrative, that there is a deep state out to “get him” and some sort of different interpretation of his perfect call. He is trying to maintain that Ukraine not Russia hacked the 2016 election. That kite ultimately won’t fly because his biggest supporter in the Senate, Lindsey Graham, has already stated that he is a thousand percent sure that it was Russia. So has Mitt Romney. However even though the Republican Senate found in 2016 that Ukraine did not interfere in the election there are a couple of Republican senators that are prepared to reopen this repeatedly discredited Russian misinformation. Rudi Giuliani is running around Ukraine trying to rake up evidence to help them. (With allies like that who needs enemies).
With regard to the Deep State theory it has been leaked that both the Inspector General of the Justice Department and servile Attorney General Barr’s Special Investigator have found that the FBI initiation of the Russia probe, which included Trump’s campaign, was justified. He can however rely on his Attorney General to once again say that the report means what he, Barr, says it means not what it says,
How the Senate Republicans can defend Trump’s obstruction of Congress will be a spectacle
to bewonder. Then there will be those that argue that because Trump didn’t actually say - “Look Zelensky you are not getting the money I am constitutionally obliged to send you or an Oval Office meeting unless you announce an investigation into the Bidens and admit that it was the Ukrainians, not the Russians that hacked the 2016 elections. Also you have to concede that this intervention was in favor of Hillary Clinton not me. In case you don’t get it I am bribing and extorting you.” - you cannot conclude that he was attempting to bribe or extort Zelensky
There also might be an attempt to interpret the Trump memo as legitimate by arguing that Ukraine is corrupt and Hunter Biden’s appointment to the Burismo Board was evidence of this. Furthermore they will argue that Hunter’s father then the Vice President used his position to prevent his prosecution. Trump has to explain if he Ukraine is so corrupt why is it that he is only interested in one instance - the Bidens. To this end Trump would want to subpoena the Bidens as witnesses as well as some discredited Ukrainian judicial officers. The fact that this lunacy is counter productive and implies that there are going to be live witnesses in the Senate hearing which could result in Mulvaney and Bolton being dragged before the body as well, may not stop his desperate enablers from resorting to the tactic.
The GOP best bet would be to admit that the behavior was inappropriate but that it does not rise to the level of undoing an election. Trump of course has gone ballistic at the suggestion that they would concede that he has done anything wrong. They will probably just maintain that they see nothing wrong in the call - to quote Lindsey Graham, "A nothingburger".
Any rate they need a ton of luck and chutzpah to a mount a credible defense for a client who is patently guilty and won’t cop a plea.
BUT THERE HAS TO BE SOME HESITANCY FROM THE REPUBLICAN SENATORS
The country witnessed a total dispassionate demolition of Trump’s defense in the impeachment hearings which may have been responsible for the increase in the polls to fifty percent of the electorate who support his impeachment and removal from office with only forty three percent indicating that they do not. Round about the same time a Federal Court ruled against him on his refusal to allow the former Whitehouse special counsel to appear before Congress. The indignant Judge arguing that Trump was not a King. Then three Constitutional expert witnesses concluded that if the Trump behavior did not amount to impeachment then nothing did.
None of these outcomes resulted in any Republican Senators publicly distancing themselves from the President, although there is reported disquiet amongst them. The number that are said to be uncomfortable ranges from between from five to thirty. The reason for the reticence is that those who support Trump’s axing are still taking into account that the percentage that are calling for his termination, has only slightly increased in spite of the weight of evidence produced.
Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has been strangely quiet on how a Senate trial will be conducted. Reports from insiders indicate that McConnell is more than mindful that he has several vulnerable Senators in 2020 so if he is too partisan he could lose the Senate. He previously let out that the trial would be for real and they would sit six days a week. He has now blotted out the Senate calendar for the whole of January indicating that it will last a month. Another factor he has to address is that for any of the outrageous moves suggested by the Trump team it will only take three defections to have them thrown out. Only time will tell if McConnell will allow his legacy to be further sullied by turning the trial into a circus. In the meantime he is appointing wing nut life time Federal Judges to keep his mind off the storm at hand. Insiders have leaked that he may well cooperate with Minority Leader Schumer as to how the Senate trial will be conducted, but Jay H. Ell wouldn’t hold his breath.
WHERE MATTERS STAND
With so many cookies about to crumble it is impossible to predict the future.
The House Judicial Committee meet this week sans Trump representation.
Three cases are being considered by the Supreme Court as to whether or not they are going to hold a trial on the release of Trump’s finances or just let the lower court rulings against him stand, thereby opening up the floodgates to his financial records.
Rick Gates, Trump’s assistant campaign manger is to be sentenced this week while his decades long advisor, Roger Stone, is facing sentencing soon.
Another five hundred legal academics have issued a statement in favor of impeachment and removal of the POTUS.
Chairman Schiff says he has more evidence in his ongoing investigation of the POTUS.
Trump will use whatever happens to feed into his victimhood and paranoia. Never underestimate this survivor.
Whichever way the crisis is diced and sliced Speaker Pelosi has Trump stone cold. She has come through as authentic and is the only source of stability in a Government that has gone insane.
Even in the likely event that Trump is still President in Febuary 2020 he can look forward to a year of legal and political setbacks that will weaken his electoral chances. His best bet being an unelectable Democratic Presidential Candidate.
So everybody hold onto your seats as this hectic merry go round speeds up.
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