Objectively the beginning of the impeachment public hearings were catastrophic for Trump as life long serving public officials laid out the background to his bribery and his extortion scheme which were to pursue his and Putin’s agenda at the expense of American national security while abandoning a crucial ally, Ukraine. But an impeachment hearing is not an objective process it is a profoundly political exercise.
In the case of the defense of Trump the goal of the Republicans is pretty low - they are not looking to vindicate the bizarre Trump narrative(s). All they are aiming to do Is keep their charge’s approval ratings at forty percent so there could be no way that Trump could be removed by the Senate or have a sizable number of Republican legislators defecting.
But is it really that simple? Jay H. Ell would argue that there are many parameters by which the impeachment outcome will be measured and many variables that can upset the applecart of the GOP House operatives. But for the moment the House Republicans can create talking points that will be retweeted by Trump then be re echoed by the nightly Fox News trio of Carlson, Hannity and Ingraham thereby keeping the forty percent cult following safely in line. What the Republicans cannot do is prevent their faithful from sitting spellbound at the drama being played out on television and hearing the “other side”, not from politicians but from patriotic civil servants.
GOP TACTICS TO DEFEND TRUMP AND THE PROBLEMS FACING THEM
For as long as the Republican House Congresspeople can keep a pro Trump alternative narrative alive they feel that Trump can live again to fight another day. Thus if they can hold the line, the real Republican decision makers in the Senate will be able to hang in there behind Trump. Then the hope is that then Trump, with the legislators unified behind him, maybe just maybe, can win an electoral college victory again dragging the Republicans with him so as to hold onto the Senate.
However the base has to hold steady. None of this material has been previously played to mass TV audiences so this is the first opportunity the Trumpite clan are being exposed.
The GOP argue an alternate agenda such as the Bidens’ alleged corruption and that Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in the 2016 Presidential election. Then there are endless and even contradictory exchanges about the unfairness of the process, such as the witnesses have only second hand evidence. Yet they support Trump in preventing the first hand witnesses from appearing before the committee. Also having called for public hearings they condemn the present one as theater concocted by the Democrats. .
The key Republican objective on day one was to attain a very low bar. The GOP Counsel attempted to establish that the behavior of Trump and his co conspirators was not “outlandish”. Apparently it was just pretty bad - "Trump being Trump". The hope being that it did not rise to the level of an impeachable crime. Another central rejoinder was that Trump was just acting out his anti corruption policies when the only evidence of this was asking for a corrupt prosecutor to be reinstated and for the investigation of the Bidens.
Trump did not assist his cause by tweeting a smear of the former Ukrainian Ambassador while she was detailing her feelings of being threatened by the President’s inexplicable bad mouthing of her to the Ukrainian President. This was not in line with the House Republicans approach who knew that public sympathy was on her side. Their argument about her ouster was that the President has every right to appoint and dismiss any Ambassador without cause. Chairman Schiff shared Trump’s tweet with the witness who agreed that the impact would not only intimidate her but future potential witnesses.
The public hearing has thrown out several sensational new revelations, none more so than from the acting US Ambassador to the Ukraine, William Taylor, who explained what he had learned from a member of his staff. The latter had overheard Trump speaking to Ambassador Sondland asking whether Zelensky was instituting the investigations. Taylor's informant was David Holme who three days later gave evidence to the Impeachment hearing committee. Another new volunteering witness from the Office of Management of the Budget, Mark Sandy, explained behind closed doors as to who, why and how the aid to Ukraine was withheld.
A central witness next week will be Trump’s EU Ambassador Sondland. He has already amended his closed door testimony once when witnesses contradicted his under oath responses. He has to answer the damning story of his overheard conversation with Trump, in the knowledge that it was overheard by others. He is a first hand witness.
As witness after witness interpret what Trump himself admitted to as a threat to national security as well as what amounts to bribery, some legislators may well ultimately change their minds. There are at least eight Republican Senators who could lose their seats if they go the wrong way on this. The House Republicans have been purged of most of those who could lose in 2020, forty percent were either beaten in the midterms, have retired or are about to retire. So they can for the most part hang tight.
TRUMP’S EMERGING PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF THE HEARING
While the House hearings were progressing Trump's woes escalated. Roger Stone, Trump’s longest surviving advisor, was identified as his campaign’s link with Wikileaks. Stone was found guilty of lying under oath to Congress about his role in order to protect Trump. Stone became the sixth in the Trump inner circle to be found guilty of a felony.
Then successive Appellate Courts ruled that Trump must deliver his tax returns heralding a showdown in the Supreme Court. The POTUS’S Charity Foundation was shut down with a two million dollar fine while Trump had to sign an admission that he had misused the funds, most of which he did not donate, for political purposes. To add to the ongoing drama some Senate Republicans, in an effort to keep some daylight between him and them, attacked his newest best friend Prime Minister Erdogan at the WhiteHouse.
Also on the Impeachment sidelines is the explosive testimony that John Bolton, fired head of the National Security Council is just dying to give. He called the Trump extortion of Zelensky a “drug deal”, his personal lawyer, Rudi Giuliani a “hand grenade” and had his subordinates report Trump’s "perfect call" to legal counsel. Bolton has leaked that he has information on the Ukranian call that has not as yet come out. In addition he has claimed that Trump’s foreign policy is based on his personal agenda and not the country’s.
Added to Trump’s concerns are the problems created by his acting Chief of Staff Nick Mulvaney who is in the scheme up to his neck. To Trump’s chagrin he initially went to ask the courts whether he should respond to the subpoena for testimony. He withdrew his court petition at Trump’s direction.
Another major link in unraveling the Ukrainian chain of corruption is the recent arrest of two operatives, Lev Parnas and Igor Froman who have been tied to Trump and are officially legal associates of personal lawyer Rudi Giuliani. The duo were indisputably assisting in the objective of attaining Biden investigations as well as trying to prove that it was Ukraine not Russia that intervened in the 2016 elections. Parnas had claimed that he had a special mission to fulfill for Trump. When the latter claimed not to know them, a furious Parnas offered to appear at the impeachment enquiry to detail his collusion with Trump.
There are hints of dissension between the POTUS and Mayor Giuliani, the President’s loud mouthed personal lawyer. In an interview with The Guardian, Giuliani when asked what he would do if Trump threw him under the bus, countered that he had very very good health insurance that would ensure that his hospital bills would be paid. His lawyer intervened claiming that Mr. Giuliani was joking but his gut response has to add to the Trump camp woes
Attorney General Barr is no where in sight. A few days ago a very animated conversation was televised through the windows of the Oval Office between Barr and Trump. It went on and on while Trump’s helicopter burred on waiting for the POTUS.
Trump’s biggest worry however has to be the outcome of two Governors' races in the deep South, Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016 he won the former by thirty points and the latter by twenty. In both the 2019 elections he spent massive political capitol. If he had ignored the races the argument could have been that the election of Governors is purely local but he didn’t. Trump held rallies telling the faithful that this is a referendum on him and now he knows the result.
THE DEMOCRAT MODUS OPERANDI
The Democrat Impeachment Enquiry, under the Chairmanship of Adam Schiff is turning out to be a dignified well disciplined focussed investigation. The fact that the Democrats have ignored years of Trump malfiscience and have concentrated on one illustrative crooked act to judge the legitamacy of the Trump Presidency makes it simple for the polarized body politic to follow. The facts are not in dispute. To be decided is whether what Trump admits to doing in the “perfect call”, merit impeachment or not. The witnesses thus far have told a coherent and compelling story. Patriotic public servants who are risking all to serve their country, have thus far supported the WhistleBlower’s claims of malfesceance.
Another very important tactical switch has been to drop the term “quid pro quo” for bribery. Bribery is one of the few named bases for impeachment in the Constitution. There are also terms being verbalized such as witness intimidation, abuse of power and no one is above the law which are easily comprehensible to the lay person.
Nancy Pelosi, who has orchestrated the proceedings with consummate skill, has not come across as the shrew that the Republicans portrayed her as. Her next major challenge will be controlling “The Squad” on the House Judiciary Committee. She can also rely on Trump to make it more difficult for the Republicans to defend him.
BUT IT IS VERY VERY FAR FROM OVER….
There are many shoes still to drop before this even hits the Senate. Incidentally, McConnell is talking about a six week trial in the Senate ostensibly to hamper the efforts of Democratic Senate Presidential aspirations. More likely he is doing this to ensure that opinion gels clearly one way or the other. If he abandons Trump in a last ditch effort to retain GOP Senate control, he needs cover. A prolonged Senate trial would suit the Democrat establishment handsomely because it will be a “twofer”. As indicated the TV audience in a Senate hearing is bipartisan so the Trump cult will once again be exposed to reality. In addition the two candidates that the Democratic Establishment fear most to be on top of the nomination ticket, Warren and Sanders, will be disadvantaged, giving Biden a clearer run.
It was well into the Watergate hearings before Nixon numbers came crashing down and this has just started. So the Republican tactics have held for day one and two but there is a long long way to go.
AT THE END OF THE DAY.
Thus far, evidence has been supportive of the narrative that Trump was bribing Ukraine’s President Zelansky for his own political purposes. In addition the negative impact of the withholding of promised aid to an ally in its war against Russian aggression was considered by the foreign policy experts to be extremely detrimental to American national interests.
At least the Fox following are now watching and hearing the other side in real time. The Fox News daytime commentators are more even handed than their night time trio. Fox newscaster, Chris Wallace, opined on the former Ambassador to Ukraine’s testimony “If you are not moved you haven’t a pulse”.
The list of public servants defying Trump and responding to subpoenas is growing.
All roads lead to Putin and Russia. One could not begin to fantasize what Putin might have on Trump. Bear in mind that the ousted National Security Officer, John Bolton, has maintained that Trump’s foreign policy on Turkey is only governed by self interest. What about Russia and Ukraine?
If Trump isn’t taking note of the results in Kentucky and Louisiana, Mitch McConnell is.
Several Republicans particularly in the Senate are eventually going to have to answer whether or not they support the country’s national security interests or Trump’s personal agenda. The longer they hang in the harder it will be to divorce themselves from the POTUS.
Rightly or wrongly Jay H. Ell believes that the freight train has just left the station. Whatever the outcome the Democrats aren't the ones that are getting to get hurt when it goes off the rails. (Incidentally Trump's biggest worry at the moment is what the Supreme Court will do about the release of his tax returns. They could even refuse to hear the case forcIng an immediate handover).
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