THE REPUBLICANS DEFEND TRUMP WITH RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION

As the impeachment Investigation is not a court of law the fact that it has been proved beyond a reasonable doubt that Donald J. Trump  attempted to bribe President Zelensky of Ukraine by withholding tax payer money until he smeared 2020 political opponent Joe Biden, is irrelevant. The House Republican jurors are not remotely interested in the law.  More tragically they don’t care that the President of the United States of America has trashed every value that America has stood for and in the process betrayed his oath. 
Nowhere was that more starkly illustrated when three Republican Impeachment hearing members passed on their question time to Dr. Fiona Hill of the National Security Council to prevent her from crushing their dangerous repetition of Putin’s talking points. Hill, politely but firmly lectured the elected representatives of the American Congress on their own foreign policy legislation on Russia/Ukraine. She literally threw a hand grenade into the hearing chamber shattering any semblance of respectability of any defense of President Trump. 

The Republicans’ cynical central defense of Trump thus became a repetition of Russian disinformation which has been debunked by American intelligence. In effect the Republicans have handed over their party to Trump and his Russian collaborators. Their mantra is as it is in all totalitarian states, “My leader right or wrong”.

However, as Jay H. Ell has stated ad nauseam this is only the beginning of a long drawn out process and who knows how the cookie will crumble.  The world around Trump is disintegrating rapidly, even Fox News is beginning to deviate from slavish adherence. Who would have believed two weeks ago that there would be such a clear cut consensus on the facts of the Trump abuse of power?

THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS HANG IN WITH TRUMP

The Republican House lawmakers remained solidly behind the POTUS as they believe that will ensure their political survival. They fear if they don’t he will support an opponent in their Primaries. This they do while offering no counter to the damning evidence of the Impeachment Investigation. To date they can take Job’s comfort from the Trump poll numbers that are steady at forty percent. While this still holds they can fantasize that the results of the 2018 midterms and the off year elections in 2019 are an aberration. 

So in spite of incontrovertible testimony that Trump abused his power by committing bribery, extortion and obstruction of justice, the Republicans support him by creating an alternate worldview. This in spite of the stark warning by Dr. Hill of the danger that by so doing they are aiding Putin in dividing American Society. Furthermore she argued that by their failure to censure the Russian President they are giving hime the green light to repeat the exercise in the 2020 election. She also disabused them of any thought it was Putin’s love affair with Trump that had occasioned his involvement. Rather the Russian Premier would be highly satisfied at Trump's impeachment because it is as a result of his intervention that there is political chaos in a weakened America.

There is no doubt that to use Dr. Hill’s phraseology the Republicans are electing to turn their party’s policy into carrying out the POTUS’S political errands rather than serving their country.

FOX NEWS, TRUMP’S MAIN ECHO CHAMBER WAVERING, SLIGHTLY

The President’s main mouth piece, Fox News, is really in a bit of an ambivalent tiz. They, having helped create an alternate reality, made some moves which can be interpreted as inching away from blind support of the President. This included being more even handed in the day time coverage of the impeachment proceedings. Their commentator Chris Wallace criticized Trump mercilessly. On the other hand they felt forced to dispense with their long time legal analyst Judge Napolitano who way back stated that Trump had committed impeachable offenses and in his place injected none other than Kenneth Starr. The latter is Plato’s original hypocrite, who literally scraped the bottom of the barrel to recommend the removal of Bill Clinton after having entrapped him into lying about a sexual relationship. Starr had steadfastly maintained till well into impeachment hearings that Trump had done nothing impeachable. However on the penultimate day after Ambassador Sondland had laid out in detail why there was a quid pro quo, he commented that the Republican Senators might have to make a trip to the WhiteHouse. He was alluding to the Republican delegation lead by Senators Goldwater and Scott forcing Nixon to resign. 

Fox News accepted an advert from the anti Trump group,“Republicans For The Rule Of Law”, where there are cut outs from the impeachment hearings illustrating the quid pro quo. These excerpts were followed by Lindsey Graham Republican Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee stating that if he could be shown a quid pro quo “that would be very disturbing”.

The morning after the final scheduled testimony Trump took advantage of his standing invitation to phone into “Fox and Friends” dominating the whole hour with his free flowing consciousness including repeating the canard that Ukraine not Russia intervened in the 2016 elections. Not even the uninformed watcher would have missed that the Fox trio kept gently challenging his dissembling inane incoherent conspiracy theories and obvious lies.

Yet Fox News is not going to abandon its ratings base easily as illustrated by their reportage in their normally fairly even handed daily newsletter. Last week it ignored the Impeachment hearings, after reporting the week earlier that Trump was toast.

Fox News is a crucial component of Trump’s support system. Without it he has no national mouthpiece as he has created a media consensus against his behavior and unconstitutional approach. He has publicly attacked Fox’s recent ambivalence. His anger, for whatever reason, makes them uncomfortable and one or other concession seems to follow his attacks. Their ultimate stance is one of the factors that could decide his fate. One telling observation is that Paul Ryan, the former Republican House Speaker who abandoned his post because of the Trump Presidency, is newly elected to the Fox board. He will hardly be advocating for full throttle support of Trump.

THE  STATE OF THE DEMOCRATS IN THE ERA OF THE TRUMP IMPEACHMENT

The Democrats appear to be able to successfully walk and chew gum at the same time in that  the House Intelligence Committee is conducting the devastating demolition of Trump and his talking points while the party are campaigning and winning  elections even in the reddest of states on the basis of domestic issues. Most importantly their long drawn out nomination process which is garnering much coverage, particularly their debates, have not focussed on Trump. Rather, to quote Peter Buttigieg they are preparing for a post Trump world. 

Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House and the de facto leader of the party continues to masterly orchestrate the objectives of the impeachment of Trump, articulate and pass legislation that meets the electorate’s priorities while keeping the many factions in her party in line. The party’s differing viewpoints are reflected in the stances of the many challengers for the Democratic Party Presidential nomination. While there are so many uncertainties in that process there are a number of facts that can be agreed upon. Chief among these is that the only conceivable path to a second Trump term is an unelectable Democratic candidate. 

The Democratic contenders can be categorized in several ways. The one that is front and centre is, "Who has the best chance to beat Trump?”. The general consensus has been that the natural challenger would be former Vice President, Joe Biden. So fearful is the POTUS of the appeal that Biden would have to the middle of the road and Mid West voters that he based his Ukrainian foreign policy on getting Biden smeared. Biden while still top of the national polls is not receiving enthusiastic support from the party followers. This is largely because he doesn’t shine in debates. (Jay H. Ell wonders why that should be so overwhelmingly important). In addition he is lagging behind in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. While he may gain steam his failure to be the obvious choice is giving the Democratic Party Establishment grey hairs.

Then the perception is that numbers two and three in the national Democratic polls, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, have reached their limit of support and would not have enough following to go over the top against Trump. This leaves the field wide open with the leader of the rest being Peter Buttingieg who has currently not much support amongst the African Americans and the Hispanics. There is still plenty of time for this to play out. There is no doubt both Governor Patrick Duval and Mayor Michael Bloomberg read this the same way - hence their late entries into the race.

THE REPUBLICAN SENATORS - “THE LAST REMAINING ADULTS IN THE ROOM”

EVERY ACTION AND STATEMENT MADE BY THE REPUBLICAN SENATORS HAS TO BE SEEN IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CONFIDENTIAL BRIEFING THEY RECEIVED FROM THE INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES WHO INFORMED THEM THAT THE ACCUSATION THAT UKRAINE INTERFERED IN THE 2016 ELECTION WAS RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION.

All focus is on the Senate who the Founders of the American constitution envisaged as the backstop to overreach by the other branches of the Government. They are the ultimate decision makers as to whether the President is removed from office. As matters stand thoughts of his removal are a real stretch as it would require twenty of the fifty -  three Republicans to turn on Trump. However there are several who for various reasons could vote aye in a vote to exit him from office. Currently the Senators generally are not available for comment but there is activity among them in various directions.

A number of Senators huddled with Trump to strategize about the termination proceedings. Trump would like the matter dismissed with no trial but even the enabling adults recognized that could not happen. McConnell who is seriously AWOL has already suggested a six week ordeal. It appears from the leaked sources the best Trump could hope for is a two week hearing. With Republicans such as Texas’s Ted Cruz opining that justice must be seen to be done Trump could have gained very little happiness from his meeting with them. 

Trump’s enabler in chief Lindsey Graham, who was originally the great straight shooter with his friend John McCain, has finally agreed to hold hearings on the Bidens and Ukraine's alleged intervention in the 2016 election. When the history of the Trump train wreck is written Graham may argue that he did all this to have influence on the POTUS. The counter narrative to that will be Dr. Hill’s informed opinion that this will be aiding Russia as their goal is that the US President, whoever he may be, be placed under a cloud.

The Senators that might turn against Trump especially if the train should continue to accelerate could be divided into the institutionalists and those who could well lose their 2020 elections if the voting patterns of 2018 are repeated. The latter include the five Senators from Maine, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina and Arizona. There is even a fear that Texas and Kansas could be at risk. Another potential group of Trump nay sayers who might want to hold onto the traditions of the Senate and American democracy include Liza Murkowski, Lamar Alexander, Richard Burr, Mike Enzi and John Izakson. In addition the obvious leader of the movement to terminate Trump would be Mitt Romney a former Republican nominee for President and the last white hope to save what is left of the principles of the Republican Party. He has absolutely nothing to lose and he has regularly criticized Trump. Just by the by Speaker Paul Ryan, the new Fox News board member, was Romney’s running mate in the latter’s Presidential bid. 

So there is the potential for enough Republicans to vote to create a bipartisan majority to vote for Trump’s ouster but not reaching the two - thirds number to effect his removal.  Nevertheless  Republican defection would weaken the POTUS to the extent that he would have little to no hope of winning reelection. Also this whole scenario could explode necessitating what Kenneth Starr mused about - a forced Trump resignation.

WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?

Trump has jeopardy on so many fronts directly and indirectly related to the termination proceedings. 

  What if early this week the courts finally rule that Don McGahn, former WhiteHouse Council has to testify before Congress? Even if there is an appeal this could open the floodgates to those who are looking for judicial cover to extricate themselves from legal jeopardy by telling all. This could include John Bolton, former Trump’s National Security Advisor, whose lawyer has informed the House Impeachment Chairman Schiff that he has as yet unrevealed information on the POTUS’S maneuverings in the Ukraine scandal. Bolton is becoming more and more public with his anger with the Trump WhiteHouse. 

  What if the Supreme Court refuses to hear the appeal to stop the release of Trump’s taxes? It boggles the mind as to what that might reveal as Trump has fought and lied so long to prevent this from happening?

  The release of batches of Trump Administration withheld documents by court order is on the cards. One batch has already been delivered from the State Department confirming that the the firing of Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch came right from the top with the cooperation of Secretary Pompeo.

Joseph Bondi. Lev Parnas’s lawyer has stated that Parnas has crucial evidence for the Impeachment enquiry. He alleges that Nunes in a visit to Ukraine attempted to get dirt on Biden from corrupt officials from the previous regime. 

In addition to wobbling Fox News the highly influential conservative “Drudge Report” abandoned Trump during the impeachment hearings. Trump has sent Jared Kuschner to find out why.

Trump is involved in a public altercation with the military brass. He wants to pardon those who have committed what have been labelled war crimes and in a rare conflagration the 
 brass have objected indicating that they set the standards of conduct. If this continues he will have declared war against everyone employed by the Federal Government.

Chairman Schiff has stated that his impeachment enquiry is not necessarily over. 

In all probability the House Judiciary Committee in framing impeachment articles will include a string of Trump’s obstruction of justice efforts, showing a pattern since way back.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The House Republicans have committed themselves to a cheat who is now the personification of their party. He recently signed a statement that he had fraudulently used his own charitable foundation to pay for political activity and was fined two million dollars as well as forfeiting a similar amount that still remained in the fund. This follows his scam to create a University where he settled the litigation for twenty - five million dollars to those who he had swindled in the belief that they would obtain a valid degree. These are just two of his nearly five thousand law suits that he has been involved in.

Then the POTUS has been exposed as conducting American Foreign Policy for his own personal political objectives. Here his enablers could offer no defense other to deflect that there is a vast deep state conspiracy against him, that the Bidens were crooks in Ukraine and that Ukrainians were responsible for the 2016 election hack in favor of Hillary Clinton. To add to Republican shame Lindsey Graham is now investigating a canard that has been debunked by the intelligence agencies.

Maybe as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s involvement in the “political errand” of Donald Trump is becoming more and more public, Mitch McConnell will be less inclined to insist that he stand for the Senate in red Kansas which McConnell believes is at risk of switching to the Democrats. 

Whatever AG Barr is trying to cook up about the origins of the Mueller investigation the independent Department of Justice’s Watchdog probe has found that it was well founded and legitimate.

This is such a fast moving story with so many tentacles that it is really impossible to predict where the bones will fall next. One thing is for sure Trump will not come out of it whole. The fear is that he could still bring the whole house tumbling with him. The only hope is that the Republican adults in the Senate will stand up and be counted. 

TRUMP - HAS THE TRAIN LEFT THE STATION?

Objectively the beginning of the impeachment public hearings were catastrophic for Trump as life long serving public officials laid out the background to his bribery and his extortion scheme which were to pursue his and Putin’s agenda at the expense of American national security while abandoning a crucial ally, Ukraine. But an impeachment hearing is not an objective process it is a profoundly political exercise. 

In the case of the defense of Trump the goal of the Republicans is pretty low - they are not looking to vindicate the bizarre Trump narrative(s). All they are aiming to do Is keep their charge’s approval ratings at forty percent so there could be no way that Trump could be removed by the Senate or have a sizable number of Republican legislators defecting. 

But is it really that simple? Jay H. Ell would argue that there are many parameters by which the impeachment outcome will be measured and many variables that can upset the applecart of the GOP House operatives. But for the moment the House Republicans can create talking points that will be retweeted by Trump then be re echoed by the nightly Fox News trio of Carlson, Hannity and Ingraham thereby keeping the forty percent cult following safely in line. What the Republicans cannot do is prevent their faithful from sitting spellbound at the drama being played out on television and hearing the “other side”, not from politicians but from patriotic civil servants. 

GOP TACTICS TO DEFEND TRUMP AND THE PROBLEMS FACING THEM

For as long as the Republican House Congresspeople can keep a pro Trump alternative narrative alive they feel that Trump can live again to fight another day. Thus if they can hold the line, the real Republican decision makers in the Senate will be able to hang in there behind Trump. Then the hope is that then Trump, with the legislators unified behind him, maybe just maybe, can win an electoral college victory again dragging the Republicans with him so as to hold onto the Senate. 

However the base has to hold steady. None of this material has been previously played to mass TV audiences so this is the first opportunity the Trumpite clan are being exposed. 

The GOP argue an alternate agenda such as the Bidens’ alleged corruption and that Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in the 2016 Presidential election. Then there are endless and even contradictory exchanges about the unfairness of the process, such as the witnesses have only second hand evidence. Yet they support Trump in preventing the first hand witnesses from appearing before the committee. Also having called for public hearings they condemn the present one as theater concocted by the Democrats.  .

The key Republican objective on day one was to attain a very low bar. The GOP Counsel attempted to establish that the behavior of Trump and his co conspirators was not “outlandish”. Apparently it was just pretty bad - "Trump being Trump". The hope being that it did not rise to the level of an impeachable crime. Another central rejoinder was that Trump was just acting out his anti corruption policies when the only evidence of this was asking for a corrupt prosecutor to be reinstated and for the investigation of the Bidens. 

Trump did not assist his cause by tweeting a smear of the former Ukrainian Ambassador while she was detailing her feelings of being threatened by the President’s inexplicable bad mouthing of her to the Ukrainian President. This was not in line with the House Republicans approach who knew that public sympathy was on her side. Their argument about her ouster was that the President has every right to appoint and dismiss any Ambassador without cause.  Chairman Schiff shared Trump’s tweet with the witness who agreed that the impact would not only intimidate her but future potential witnesses. 

The public hearing has thrown out several sensational new revelations, none more so than from the acting US Ambassador to the Ukraine, William Taylor, who explained what he had learned from a member of his staff. The latter  had overheard Trump speaking to Ambassador Sondland asking whether Zelensky was instituting the investigations. Taylor's informant was David Holme who three days later gave evidence to the Impeachment hearing committee. Another new volunteering witness from the Office of Management of the Budget, Mark Sandy, explained behind closed doors as to who, why and how the aid to Ukraine was withheld. 

A central witness next week will be Trump’s EU Ambassador Sondland. He has already amended his closed door testimony once when witnesses contradicted his under oath responses. He has to answer the damning story of his overheard conversation with Trump, in the knowledge that it was overheard by others. He is a first hand witness.

As witness after witness interpret what Trump himself admitted to as a threat to national security as well as what amounts to bribery, some legislators may well ultimately change their minds. There are at least eight Republican Senators who could lose their seats if they go the wrong way on this. The House Republicans have been purged of most of those who could lose in 2020, forty percent were either beaten in the midterms, have retired or are about to retire. So they can for the most part hang tight.

TRUMP’S EMERGING PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF THE HEARING

 While the House hearings were progressing Trump's woes escalated. Roger Stone, Trump’s longest surviving advisor, was identified as his campaign’s link with Wikileaks. Stone was found guilty of lying under oath to Congress about his role in order to protect Trump. Stone became the sixth in the Trump inner circle to be found guilty of a felony. 

Then successive Appellate Courts ruled that Trump must deliver his tax returns heralding a showdown in the Supreme Court. The POTUS’S Charity Foundation was shut down with a two million dollar fine while Trump had to sign an admission that he had misused the funds, most of which he did not donate, for political purposes. To add to the ongoing drama some Senate Republicans, in an effort to keep some daylight between him and them, attacked his newest best friend Prime Minister Erdogan at the WhiteHouse. 

Also on the Impeachment sidelines is the explosive testimony that John Bolton, fired head of the National Security Council is just dying to give. He called the Trump extortion of Zelensky a “drug deal”, his personal lawyer, Rudi Giuliani a “hand grenade” and had his subordinates report Trump’s "perfect call" to legal counsel. Bolton has leaked that he has information on the Ukranian call that has not as yet come out. In addition he has claimed that Trump’s foreign policy is based on his personal agenda and not the country’s. 

Added to Trump’s concerns are the problems created by his acting Chief of Staff Nick Mulvaney who is in the scheme up to his neck. To Trump’s chagrin he initially went to ask the courts whether he should respond to the subpoena for testimony. He withdrew his court petition at Trump’s direction.

Another major link in unraveling the Ukrainian chain of corruption is the recent arrest of two operatives, Lev Parnas and Igor Froman who have been tied to Trump and are officially legal associates of personal lawyer Rudi Giuliani. The duo were indisputably assisting in the objective of attaining Biden investigations as well as trying to prove that it was Ukraine not Russia that intervened in the 2016 elections. Parnas had claimed that he had a special mission to fulfill for Trump. When the latter claimed not to know them, a furious Parnas offered to appear at the impeachment enquiry to detail his collusion with Trump.  

There are hints of dissension between the POTUS and  Mayor Giuliani, the President’s loud mouthed personal lawyer. In an interview with The Guardian, Giuliani when asked what he would do if Trump threw him under the bus, countered that he had very very good health insurance that would ensure that his hospital bills would be paid. His lawyer intervened claiming that Mr. Giuliani was joking but his gut response has to add to the Trump camp woes

 Attorney General Barr is no where in sight. A few days ago a very animated conversation was televised through the windows of the Oval Office between Barr and Trump. It went on and on while Trump’s helicopter burred on waiting for the POTUS.

Trump’s biggest worry however has to be the outcome of two Governors' races in the deep South, Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016 he won the former by thirty points and  the latter by twenty. In both the 2019 elections he spent massive political capitol.  If he had ignored the races the argument could have been that the election of Governors is purely local but he didn’t. Trump held rallies telling the faithful that this is a referendum on him and now he knows the result.

THE DEMOCRAT MODUS OPERANDI

The Democrat Impeachment Enquiry, under the Chairmanship of Adam Schiff is turning out to be a dignified well disciplined focussed investigation. The fact that the Democrats have ignored years of Trump malfiscience and have concentrated on one illustrative crooked act to judge the legitamacy of the Trump Presidency makes it simple for the polarized body politic to follow. The facts are not in dispute. To be decided is whether what Trump admits to doing in the “perfect call”, merit impeachment or not. The witnesses thus far have told a coherent and compelling story. Patriotic public servants who are risking all to serve their country, have thus far supported the WhistleBlower’s claims of malfesceance.

Another very important tactical switch has been to drop the term “quid pro quo” for bribery. Bribery is one of the few named bases for impeachment in the Constitution. There are also terms being verbalized such as witness intimidation, abuse of power and no one is above the law which are easily comprehensible to the lay person. 

Nancy Pelosi, who has orchestrated the proceedings with consummate skill, has not come across as the shrew that the Republicans portrayed her as. Her next major challenge will be controlling “The Squad” on the House Judiciary Committee. She can also rely on Trump to make it more difficult for the Republicans to defend him.

BUT IT IS VERY VERY FAR FROM OVER…. 

There are many shoes still to drop before this even hits the Senate. Incidentally, McConnell is talking about a six week trial in the Senate ostensibly to hamper the efforts of Democratic Senate Presidential aspirations. More likely he is doing this to ensure that opinion gels clearly one way or the other. If he abandons Trump in a last ditch effort to retain GOP Senate control, he needs cover.  A prolonged Senate trial would suit the Democrat establishment handsomely because it will be a “twofer”. As indicated the TV audience in a Senate hearing is bipartisan so the Trump cult will once again be exposed to reality.  In addition the two candidates that the Democratic Establishment fear most to be on top of the nomination ticket, Warren and Sanders, will be disadvantaged, giving Biden a clearer run. 

It was well into the Watergate hearings before Nixon numbers came crashing down and this has just started. So the Republican tactics have held for day one and two but there is a long long way to go.

AT THE END OF THE DAY. 

Thus far, evidence has been supportive of the narrative that Trump was bribing Ukraine’s President Zelansky for his own political purposes. In addition the negative impact of the withholding of promised aid to an ally in its war against Russian aggression was considered by the foreign policy experts to be extremely detrimental to American national interests. 

At least the Fox following are now watching and hearing the other side in real time. The Fox News daytime commentators are more even handed than their night time trio. Fox newscaster, Chris Wallace, opined on the former Ambassador to Ukraine’s testimony “If you are not moved you haven’t a pulse”.

The list of public servants defying Trump and responding to subpoenas is growing.

All roads lead to Putin and Russia. One could not begin to fantasize what Putin might have on Trump. Bear in mind that the ousted National Security Officer, John Bolton, has maintained that Trump’s foreign policy on Turkey is only governed by self interest. What about Russia and Ukraine?

 If Trump isn’t taking note of the results in Kentucky and Louisiana, Mitch McConnell is.

Several Republicans particularly in the Senate are eventually going to have to answer whether or not they support the country’s national security interests or Trump’s personal agenda. The longer they hang in the harder it will be to divorce themselves from the POTUS. 

Rightly or wrongly Jay H. Ell believes that the freight train has just left the station. Whatever the outcome the Democrats aren't the ones that are getting to get hurt when it goes off the rails. (Incidentally Trump's biggest worry at the moment is what the Supreme Court will do about the release of his tax returns. They could even refuse to hear the case forcIng an immediate handover).

SPORT AND POLITICS - MANDELA AND TRUMP

The marriage between sports and politics, long been consecrated, was never more evident recently when two world championship events, one in Washington and another in Japan, were decided. Both were central to the contrasting narratives of two of the most transformative figures of contemporary political history, South Africa's Nelson Mandela and the USA's Donald Trump. 

Each clash involved the iconic sports of their respective countries, rugby in South Africa and baseball in America. Seminal sporting encounters can be opportunities for politicians to bolster their influence or legacies or have them defined for them. The two monumental contests just decided served to illustrate the diametrically opposed impacts of two of the figures that have, in living memory, dominated the world stage. The Washington Nationals won the baseball World Series having started as the distinct underdogs while the South African "Springboks", emerged triumphant in the world rugby cup, having been written off following their disastrous record preceding this tourney. 

Both sports, baseball and rugby, while not dominant on the world scene are regarded with almost religious reverence in their respective countries. Scenes of hysteria accompanied both outcomes. In Washington where the current mood is sombre and where sports teams rarely deliver to their fanatic following, the citizens flooded into the streets immediately afterwards and in their subsequent victory parade. In South Africa, which is experiencing an ongoing political crisis, the internet was jammed with literally thousands of skits, tributes while there were never ending ecstatic celebration as tens of thousands packed stadiums in South Africa to watch the match live and on their heroes' return hail them in city after city. 

Baseball has a long association with the Presidency of the United States. There is an oft repeated myth that the supposed founder of the game was present at Lincoln’s deathbed. The dying President was falsely attributed as whispering, “Keep baseball alive the country needs it”. Subsequent Presidents were indeed connected with the game. Each and everyone performed the ceremonial custom of throwing an opening pitch at an important game. Only Donald has not done so but he did attend one of the seven nail biting games in the World Series.... but that is only a small part of this story

Rugby in South Africa is a cultural beacon. South Africa had been dominant even prior to Wold War 11 and continued its international superiority even after the election of the apartheid Nationalist government in1948 when segregation became legally entrenched. In spite of world opprobrium white South Africa teams managed to play up till the 1980’s when the International Rugby Board placed a kibosh on their participation. In 1995 Nelson Mandela the first President of a non apartheid South Africa was present to award the World Cup Championship trophy to South Africa who won it for the first time.... but that is only a small part of this story

Both Trump’s and Mandela’s attitude and involvement in sport are reflective of their ethos. Jay H. Ell is  going to devote much of this piece on Mandela's legacy and the positive impact it had on South African politics and what affirmative bounce South Africa’s fairy tale victory in Japan may have on its current situation. 

THE HISTORIC BACKGROUND TO THE SOUTH AFRICAN RUGBY WORLD CUP VICTORY - MANDELA’S STORY

 It helps if you were born and educated in South Africa and are a sports lover to fully understand the almost spiritual event that has just taken place in Yokohama, Japan.  The story goes back to the election that elevated Mandela to the Presidency. The latter election was the first one he was registered to vote in a South African election. He personally had suffered and been humiliated by the Nationalist government as had the black South Africans who stood, sometimes a whole day to join him celebrating their newly won franchise. Yet Mandela’s objective was not for revenge but rather to unify the country and allow everyone to enjoy their citizenship. 

Rugby was a South African religion and had become closely identified with the white supremacy. Blacks rarely played the game. Like everything else it was segregated and the only race that qualified to represent South Africa was the white one. The rugby icon, Danie Craven, had once maintained a black would never don the iconic green and gold jersey. (He subsequently recanted and was involved in the transformation and integration of the sport). So much was the anger towards the white South African team and what it had represented that black South Africans supported the opposing countries though out the apartheid era up until even the first year of the Mandela Presidency. Prior to the World Cup Mandela had already exhibited conciliation by insisting that the South African Rugby team should be known under its historical name, “The Springboks”, as opposed to changing it due to the apartheid connotations.

1995, the first year of Mandela’s Presidency, coincided with the World Rugby Cup being held in South Africa. The South African squad contained only one member who was not white. Mandela recognizing what culturally the sport meant to white South Africans and what a unifying impact his identifying with the team might mean, invited the South African captain into his office sharing with him his belief that winning the World Cup would help unite the nation. The newly elected President then read to the Springbok captain, Francois Pienaar, a British poem entitled Invictus which had inspired him in prison. (The whole saga was immortalized in Clint Eastwood’s motion picture, “Invictus”).

SOUTH AFRICA WINS THE 1995 WORLD CUP - PIENAAR’S STORY

The home team were very much the underdogs in the championship. Mandela maintained constant contact with the members both in their preparation and during the early rounds. The squad was taken to Robben Island where the South African leader had been imprisoned for twenty  - seven years. They went to black townships to encourage the youth. Pienaar who had been brought up to believe that the transformative head of the nation was a terrorist was inspired and moved. All of his team did not totally share his conversion and baulked at learning the new South African National anthem which was to be played together with the old at the games. 

When South Africa won the final in extra time against their traditional rivals New Zealand, Mandela presented the trophy wearing a Springbok Rugby Jersey with the number six on the back - Pienaar’s number. Pienaar was dumbfounded and humbled when the President thanked him for what he had done to help unify the country. The irony was that the President was one of the few black South Africans in the capacity crowd.

BETWEEN 1995 AND 2019 - ERASMUS’S STORY

Mandela chose only to serve one term and while South Africa won the coveted world championship in 2007 its rugby steadily deteriorated together with its politics in the twenty first century. Like so many other countries in the new millennium the ruling party sunk into corruption. To cut a long story short early in 2019 Cyril Ramaphosa was elected to the Presidency. Ramaphosa who had been Mandela’s choice to be his successor nearly two decades ago, finally ascended to the leadership. 

During Mandela’s term a figure who was to play a central role in South African Rugby “Rassie” Erasmus made his debut for the national team. The team had a sensational run following the world cup victory and he captained it on a few occasions. Erasmus had thirty - six international appearances with the last one being in 2001. Then followed a career in coaching culminating in his appointment as head coach of the Springboks in 2018. It is not unfair to characterize his new charge as being in total disarray. Such was their dismal record that his appointment had been preceded by the previous coach being summarily fired. 

In a short space of time he cobbled together a world beating side but more importantly he saw the social and political significance of what a winning Springbok team might represent to a demoralized nation. His boldest move was the appointment of Siya Kolisi, the first black captain of the team. He stuck with Kolisi whose form was not that great in the earlier world cup games. Erasmus subsequently revealed that this had been as a result of a niggling injury. Kolisi would not only lead South Africa to victory he would become recognized as an ambassador on and off the field for the sport and as a symbol of unity between the populations. By the time of the Japanese world cup, black player involvement in the game had increased to the extent that they numbered eleven of the South African rugby squad. 

YOKOHAMA JAPAN WORLD CUP 2019 - KOLISI’S STORY

The writing appeared to be on the wall from the first game when South Africa, ranked seven in the world at the time, suffered a defeat against their long time rivals New Zealand, the favorites. Fortunately for the Springboks this set back did not eliminate them as the contest was not in the knock out stage of the event. In the latter phase they were blessed with a favorable draw and with each match they grew with stature and confidence. In the final they severely trounced England playing the same type of grinding rugby that had been a feature of South Africa’s success in the twentieth century. This resulted in the majority of points coming from penalty kicks. However there were two magical tries, (touchdowns), reflecting the genius of their two wings, (wide receivers for American Football fans). One was scored by Makazole Mapimpi and the other by Cheslin Kolbe, both players of color.

However what followed was reminiscent of the 1995 final when Kolisi wearing the same number six that Pienaar had worn lifted the trophy with Mandela’s protege Ramaphosa, also in a Springbok rugby jersey adorned with the number six, in attendance. Like Mandela the newly elected Premier hoisted the trophy with Kolisi. The captain Kolisi had begged the head coach Erasmus to share the handing over of the trophy with him, but the latter refused leaving that moment to Kolise alone. 

The story of Siya Kolisi became viral. From a poverty stricken childhood he had obtained a scholarship to attend a prestigious school in the Eastern Cape. This began his long haul on the ladder of success. He now was in a position to talk of unifying the nation. He claimed it was a privilege not a burden to fight for South Africa. Francois Pienaar was there too and the reminiscing of the 1995 final and Mandela was irresistible as the media reminded those who may have forgotten. 

Both Pienaar and Kolisi had spoken about a team that would show the example by uniting players from different backgrounds and it was the 1995 leader that suggested that the team do a victory lap through the cities of South Africa. Pienaar must have noted that each and every player now lustily sung the words of the "new" South African national anthem, “Nkosi Sikeleli Africa”  as well as the old anthem, “Die Stem”.

 DIVISIVENESS AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO SPORTS - TRUMP’S STORY

Trump is best known for his love of golf and the seventeen golf clubs that he owns. He also has a history of involvement in professional wrestling which fits far more closely to his image. His Presidency has been punctuated with confrontations with black athletes and winning sports teams, most of whom have resisted the traditional visit to the WhiteHouse. He has exploited for political gain sensitive situations such as the kneeling of National Football League players, who were protesting a rash of deaths of unarmed African Americans at the hands of police. This intervention had the effect of making a bad situation worse. He waded in boots and all at his rallies making the task of a ham handed  NFL executive even more difficult to cope with the explosive situation that the angry black players had created. American football is the biggest ticket item in American entertainment and the team membership like that of basketball is dominated by African Americans. 

Somehow or another they got him to shut up and stop attacking black athletes so other than the fact in the last week he attended one of the Washington National baseball games and a professional boxing event his sports involvement has been limited to his frequent golf outings which according to a golf tracking site are approximately twice a week. His attendance at the Washington baseball game which was flashed onto the screen was greeted by “Lock Him Up” and sustained booing. While his spectatorship at the boxing event was punctuated by both cheers and boos. In Southern Alabama at a football game his presence was greeted with cheers. Divisive!

It is fair to say that like in all his other involvement with the American citizenry he has not attempted to unite the nation through sports. Can you imagine Donald Trump playing a unifying role through sport? Could he learn to listen and empathize?

AT THE END OF THE DAY  - RAMAPHOSA’S STORY.

Lest anyone harbor the misconception that Mandela was a soft pushover, they should read his dignified, defiant and uncompromising statement to the Court when found guilty of "treason". There he respectfully explained why he had turned to violence in his fight for equality as all his and his party’s activity had been declared illegal. His legal team advised that this approach could be regarded as confrontation and force the court to impose the death penalty. The self same Mandela, who had dramatically proclaimed that the justice that he lived for was also the justice he was prepared to die for, walked the walk in every circumstance, for example he insisted on treating his Afrikaner prison warders with respect and when released saw to it that they gained employment. 

 South Africa’s task to right the ship after nearly two decades of corruption has a long way to go. Cyril Ramaphosa has to be grateful for Siya’s and Rassie’s help. Jay H. Ell can imagine Nelson Mandela, wearing his number six Springbok jersey, heaving a sigh of relief from up above that Ramaphosa is finally at the helm. 

Prince Harry long a friend of South Africa and admirer of Mandela, having attended his ninetieth birthday bash in Hyde Park London, congratulated the South African President wishing him “luck". He rather undiplomatically added that "he needed it"!