TRUMP ON THE ROPES - OCTOBER 2019

While news breaks by the minute, the latest being Trump diverting from his impeachment mess with a destructive foreign policy move, an assessment is due as to his status three weeks after Speaker Pelosi initiated an impeachment enquiry.

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

It is fair to argue that in mid October 2019 President Trump’s position has weakened dramatically. True to form the POTUS has doubled down, his furious defense signaling that he would fight the process the same way he won the Presidency, politically not legally. He would go to his people with the aid of his echo chamber Fox News. In addition he still gains comfort from the fact that the Republicans control the Senate that ultimately will decide his fate. Mitch McConnell, the GOP Senate leader, who has delivered to date, is his legislative firewall against the Democratic powerhouse Nancy Pelosi who has outmaneuvered him in the House of Representatives. The POTUS appears more and more helpless against the House of Representative assault on his Presidency as he flails on at the mountain of evidence that grows by the minute. The question on everyone’s lips is, “How is this all going to play out?”.

As of October 2019 four questions remain: Will Pelosi expand the impeachment proceedings to include, for example, Trump’s request for China to investigate the Bidens. Will Trump be the first President to be terminated by the Senate or even resign and if he survives as the 2020 GOP nominee will he be reelected as President? Finally, what will influence any of these outcomes?

WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT?

 The essence of the abuse of power charge against the POTUS to obtain illegal foreign aid in an election campaign, is similar to the one pursued by Robert Mueller. While the latter showed that Trump and his campaign asked for, received and welcomed foreign aid in the 2016 Presidential election, (some of his team actually sat down with Russian foreign agents to “get dirt” on his opponent), this latest episode happened in real time in front of an incredulous public. 

The Ukraine narrative is easy to follow and is stripped of Mueller’s detail. In a country which is obsessed with viewing The Mob and their violent modus operandi in countless TV programs, (The Sopranos ran for six seasons being rated in the top hundred tv series ever) and movies, (The Godfather  the second greatest film of all time,) so the electorate don’t need anything spelled out to them - "the favor" that Trump asked for was one that "President Zelensky could not refuse". In the process he used the taxpayer’s resources for his own ends.

Trump has provided documentary evidence to corroborate what the whistleblower alleged - namely while withholding military aid from an ally Ukraine, he asked for favors which included investigating his most likely presidential opponent,  Joe Biden. Since his release of the reconstructed transcript of the Presidential call as well as the Whistleblower Complaint there have been daily corroborations of Trump’s intentions as well as the actions that he and his personal lawyer, Rudi Giuliani, effected to get Joe Biden smeared. As damning are the extensive cover ups that followed his behavior. Giuliani had virtually no response when two thugs who were assisting him in the Ukrainian shake down were arrested. To add to Giuliani woes The New York Times reported that he is being criminally investigated by the US Attorney’s Federal Office in Southern New York. 

Like Nixon the POTUS has involved several members of his cabinet who have to be consulting their lawyers. Chief among the enablers in the Ukraine saga are Secretary of State Pompeo and Secretary of Energy Perry. 

THE IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS

Nowhere more than in the impeachment enquiry proceedings are the wheels coming off. At first blush Trump’s hope that this process would antagonize the electorate middle as well as mobilize his base has misfired. The number in favor of impeaching him has increased by fifteen points within three weeks. Those who have changed their opinions include independents, rural voters and even a few evangelicals. Republican suburbia left in the midterms. 

Trump’s tactic to date, backed by the Counsel to the Presidential Office and the Attorney General of the United States, is that the President cannot be investigated or impeached. Up until the start of his termination enquiry the POTUS ignored twenty - six subpoenas and frightened witnesses from appearing before Congress. This all unravelled when Pelosi declared an impeachment process. The latter is constitutionally enshrined resulting in the subpoenaed witnesses being more fearful of disregarding the law than the rage of Donald J. Trump. To date the former special envoy to the Ukraine has given ten hours of testimony corroborating the WhistleBlower complaint. More devastating was the testimony of the former Ambassador to the Ukraine, Maria Yovanovitch. She basically itemized the inside scoop as to why she was recalled for bogus reasons by the Trump/Giuliani/Pompeo troika. She maintained  that the objective was for Trump to be unimpeded in his corrupt shake down of the Ukrainian Premier. 

There is a ton more to come including most significantly the current ambassador to the EU who authored text messages pressuring US diplomats to assist the aforementioned troika in leaning on Premier Zelensky to deliver Biden’s head on a plate. EU Ambassador Sondland is reported to be going to testify that he was instructed by Trump to deny that there was a “quid pro quo” in his threats to Ukraine. Sondland will be pointing out that he had no idea if the POTUS was telling the truth. First up however is former Presidential Advisor on Russia, Fiona Hill, who will have the drama that unfolded as to how Vladmir Putin’s Russia fits into the picture. 

To add to the misery are other embassy staff including Charge D’ Affairs Bill Taylor who relayed in texts that muscling the Ukrainian Premier to do Trump’s bidding would create a "nightmare scenario". Then there are the string of subpoenaed witnesses from the WhistleBlower report, a number of Trump’s cabinet, the two Giuliani associated thugs that are presently in jail and a slew of other WhistleBlowers in the wings. 

Trump’s legal position can only worsen but for practical purposes he is not relying on Pelosi not bringing articles of impeachment against him, he is meeting the constitutional crisis by going to his people.

THE STATE OF TRUMP IN THE COURTS

Court proceedings slowly grind on. Most notably Congress’s demand for tax returns have already been decided against Trump in a Federal Court of Appeals. There is little doubt that the release of these will have a profound impact on the electorate. The conventional wisdom is that it would make a major dent in the Trump narrative and also outline his involvement with foreign entities. By the end of the week Trump lost a ton of cases relating to his wall and immigration as well. 

Earlier, in a Federal Court ruling, Judge Mareo, in response to Attorney General Barr’s revival of Nixon’s argument that a President cannot be the subject of any criminal investigation, reminded the President’s counsel that the Supreme Court had unanimously ruled in Nixon versus the U.S. otherwise. Trump however contends that the Supreme Court ruled wrongly on US v Nixon. He is aided and abetted by his slime ball Attorney General who mislead US public on the Mueller Report. The two of them incoherently claim that the American War of Independence against a despotic king was to uphold the right of the new country’s President to continue to be above the law! The jury, to coin a phrase, is still out on the question as to how the currently constituted Supreme Court will rule on the issue. However the recent declaration by seventeen legal doyens of the Conservative Republican establishment arguing that Trump should be removed from office is a really big deal and does not augur well for the President.

Trump reflexly following the advise given to him by his disgraced counsel, the late Roy Cohn to attack and litigate has threatened to sue Nancy Pelosi and Congressman Schiff the leader of impeachment. According to a USA report, as of 2016 he had already been involved, either as a plaintiff or a defendant, in three and a half thousand litigations, so what is another few between friends.

THE ROLE OF REPUBLICAN SENATORS PARTICULARLY MCCONNELL AND ROMNEY

The Republican Senators are between a rock and a hard place. They are more than mindful that Trump still controls their base that pitch up to vote in a Primary. Thus backing impeachment might well be curtains for their careers in the Senate. At the same time they are being more exposed to the limelight and are the target of the attacks by the Republican intelligentsia and pundits. Currently they are AWOL, particularly those up for election in purple states. 

Trump more than ever needs a solid Republican legislative wall behind him  He peculiarly exacerbated his wobbly standing by his abandonment of American allies, the Kurds, who were crucial allies in the war against ISIS. He backed Turkey in its militaristic aims for the region. There is little in the local press but being screamed about in the Israeli news media that Trump's action constitutes a threat to that country. His legislative defender in chief, Mitch McConnell was highly critical pointing out that this decision would assist Russia, Syria and Iran. This impulsive behavior as the Turkey crisis escalates may well be the issue that finally gets the Republican senators to revolt. McConnell has warned him that there is a veto proof majority against such actions. 

The public anger of the Republican Senators at Trump’s foreign policy on Turkey, Kurdistan and Syria is in part a reflection of their frustration at not being able to attack him on the UkraInian scandal. McConnell who will one day have to answer as to his enabling of what will prove to be the most corrupt president in history, is currently in a perilous position. He represents a State that Trump won with sixty - two percent of the vote. McConnell’s current approval rating is thirty - six percent. Although, when push comes to shove, not even the most optimistic Democratic pundit is forecasting his downfall he doesn’t need Trump backing a Republican opponent in a Primary. Trump is reportedly calling him three times a day for reassurance as the spineless head of the Senate will be in charge of the articles of impeachment. There was an argument that McConnell could even refuse to hold one. To Trump’s apparent dismay McConnell stated he had no choice. However he could  limit proceedings that would shield El Presidente from excess toxic exposure.

Trump’s biggest problem in the Senate is Mitt Romney who has finally come out in full force attacking him for abusing his office to get dirt on his opponent. Trump tweeted up a hurricane against his nemesis who really couldn’t give a damn. Most significantly Romney, who has a vast war chest as well as the support of many moneyed establishment Republicans, made it quite clear that he would support and run cover for vulnerable Republican Senators. That is code red for Trump because if they support his termination it will slash his election chances whether they win or lose their seats. 

In brief Trump’s unanimous Senate support is a thing of the past. Nevertheless the controller of the Senate is still in his corner but undoubtedly is about as loyal to Trump as the latter is to him.

WHAT IS GOING FOR TRUMP?

Although there is a big bohaai at the rapid change in the poll numbers for impeachment and removal for Trump the numbers, although a majority, coincide with his current disapproval rating of his presidency. Trump still has his base who are stepping up in the tens of thousands at his Nuremberg style rallies. He has held three of these in the past four days. In case anyone needs reminding the last time round he won the Presidency with a minority of the electorate. 

For the moment he seems to have come out tops in the fight within his propaganda arm, Fox News. Shepherd Smith the newscaster who was more and more laying it on the line that Trump was a disaster resigned. This doesn’t solve all Trump’s problems with the news organization, who still are producing unbiased polls chronicling his falling support, but it is a battle victory in his war.

The fact that Trump is at the end of his rope doesn’t impact his cult following. In fact they welcome his lunacy. For the moment they are solidly behind him. He is openly warning all that should he be axed they will be his army in civil war number two.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Pelosi need not make a decision about expanding the impeachment scope the witnesses are doing it for her. Jay H. Ell believes that the chances of Trump not being the GOP candidate in 2020 are increasing. What however is uncertain is that should he survive to run again whether he can gain a second term or not. Biden’s response to the Ukrainian episode till now has been sub par and he is, as Trump has worked out, the Democrat’s strongest candidate to run against him. 

The POTUS’S most onerous hurdle is survival to run in 2020. If he does it will mean that the mountains of his illegal and corrupt activity being exposed have not forced at least another twenty - five pecent of his base to abandon him. That fact would have allow him a fifty percent shot at reeelction. As each day passes whether it be in Congress or the courts the odds increase against such an outcome. One parameter McConnell will take note off is the polls because to him principle and patriotism are not relevant factors in political decisions even when the country faces the greatest constitutional crisis in a century. Another looming obstacle at wholesale support from the Republican Senate is Trump's bizarre foreign policy. 

One matter for sure is that the constitutional lawyers, Republican or otherwise, are almost ad idem that Trump is trashing American democracy by claiming supremacy over the other two co - equal branches of government - The Congress and The Judiciary. He should be removed from office.