DON TRUMPIONE FORCES PELOSI’S HAND

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has held the majority of her caucus at bay for months as well as several Democratic candidates for President on their desire to impeach Trump. She knew her base would just have to suck it up if she didn’t. Her central concern was that those Republicans and Independents that gave the Democrats an over forty seat gain in the House of Representatives in 2018 were not ready to vote for impeachment.  In addition she had no desire to initiate termination proceedings when she was on track to lead the Democratic Party to win both Legislative bodies as well as the Presidency. The whole impeachment project was just not worth the risk.

Two factors changed her mind  - the Whistleblower complaint of the treasonous behavior of Trump and his syndicate in the WhiteHouse in using the Presidency for personal gain and the fact that the courageous freshmen from marginal constituencies publicly announced that in order to uphold their oaths to the constitution, regardless of the fact that they could lose their seats in Congress, they had to support an enquiry. They argued what were their oaths about if they allowed this rape of America’s value system to go unchallenged?

The context of the screws el Presidente put on Ukraine was as follows: The latter had been invaded by Russia, which maybe the The Don’s greatest ally but is Congress’s number one enemy. Congress in bipartisan moves had voted a total of two hundred and fifty million dollars of tax payer money to aid the beleaguered Ukraine in their struggle to maintain their democracy against the Russian aggression. Trump’s chief lackey Mick Malvone was instructed to withhold these moneys so that when the Trump phone call went through to the President of Ukraine he would be desperate for the promised moneys and receptive to Trumpian demands. President Zelensky is a quick learner knowing full well that the way to what passes for Trump’s mind is heavy flattery.

It will be noted that the WhistleBlower report about the illegal actions of the President and several of his Administration also detailed the lengthy and devious cover up by the WhiteHouse to hide the transcripts between Trump and the Ukrainian President Zelensky in a top secret computer designed for national security. The same gang then sought to suppress the WhistleBlower complaint itself. Subsequently it has been leaked that the Putin and Saudi conversations were secreted there as well.

TRUMPIONE MAKES UKRAINE AN OFFER THEY COULDN’T REFUSE.

Trump’s alleged criminal behavior in pressuring the Ukrainian President has been likened to a mob operation. 

The following,( except the first sentence which is in italics and is Jay H. Ell’s overall assessment of Trump’s extortion), is directly from the transcript provided by the WhiteHouse of the July 25 conversation between the two leaders. Had anyone scripted the interaction as fiction it would have been criticized as being over the top and a smear of the forty -fifth President. 

Trumpione. “Nice country you got President Zelensky. It would be a pity if something happened to it”. 

Trumpione. “My people have been very good to your people, lots of favors.”

Zelensky. “Agreed. We all so admire your leadership and I stayed in a Trump Hotel when I visited America. I would like to confess that I had an opportunity to learn from you. We used quite a few of your skills and knowledge…..the first time you called me when I won the Presidential elections, the second time when my party won the elections. I should run more often so you could call me more often….. you are great teacher for us…Trumpione interrupts

Trumpione. We do a lot for Ukraine, we spend a lot of effort and time …we have been very very good for Ukraine…….I wouldn’t say that it is reciprocal……

.....the other thing. There is a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about so that whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great… Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution……Zelensky follows up with a non sequitur…

Zelensky. “…Thank you for your support in the area of defense. Ukraine is ready to cooperate in the next steps by buying American missiles”....Trumpione not to be deterred...

Trumpione. “I want you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot… I want you to go into the whole situation of ‘Crowdstrike’. The server they say Ukraine has it. (In brief. Trump’s obsession with ‘Crowdstrike’ is to prove that it wasn’t the Russians that hacked the 2016 election)….. 

…..I would like to have the Attorney General call you .. and I would like you get to the bottom of it. As you saw yesterday the whole nonsense ended with a very poor performance by a man named Robert Mueller, an incompetent performance but they say a lot of it started in Ukraine. Whatever you can do. It is very important. …..Mr. Giuliani is a highly respected man…. Rudy very much knows what is happening… if you could speak to him that would be great….”

Trumpione in the thirty minute conversation never reassured Zelensky that he would forward the moneys that Congress had voted for his country’s defense. 

(Jay H. Ell presents this with an apology to the Cosa Nostra who were far more subtle).

THE DOCUMENTATION PROVIDED TO CONGRESS AND WHAT FOLLOWED

Trump when confronted with the daily drip drip about the WhistleBlower’s report, the fact that the Director General of Intelligence, (DGI). had labelled his/her complaint credible, urgent and serious and because the Senate Republicans had unanimously called for the declassification of all the reports, released everything. The documentation included the DGI’S reasons for wanting to refer the allegations to the Intelligence Committees of Congress immediately. It is fair comment that the majority of legislators either publicly or privately were aghast at the content of the complaint and the content of the conversation.

 After the publication of the WhiteHouse’s edited report on the telephone conversation between Trump and Zelensky, Pelosi was forced to announce the formal Impeachment enquiry.

Matters have moved really quickly. The Democrats in the House have had their first hearing on the matter while the Republican controlled Senate Intelligence Committee held theirs, in camera, on the same day.

Trump believing he could do what he has done before argued that the transcript of his discussion and the circumstances surrounding didn’t say what they said. He attacked Biden and blamed the media, Democrats and the Deep State that are out to get him, in an attempt to brazen this out. He hoped to mobilize his base, but more importantly, win back those who voted Democrat in 2018 as they, one week ago, were against impeachment. He was also banking on the fact that after his 12,000 documented lies truth does not appear to matter. 

There are many of the Trump camp that are in the crosshairs of the probes that will follow - Attorney General Barr, Trump’s new personal lawyer Rudi Giuliani and his Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney in addition to the lawyers that allegedly helped the cover up.

The Democrats are wisely dropping every other Trump scandal in favor of concentrating on this event. Obviously the courageous WhistleBlower will provide them with a slew of witnesses that were his informants.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Like most of Trump’s wounds this one is self inflicted. The day after Robert Mueller presented his findings that Russia had intervened in his favor in 2016 he sought help from the Ukrainians to get dirt on the Democratic front runner Joe Biden. The central allegation is that he withheld tax payer money voted by Congress to an American ally against America’s sanctioned enemy Russia in order to fulfill his own personal agenda. 

 Initial polling indicates an increase in public support for impeachment. The tide for Nixon’s ouster really began when the public hearings educated the electorate. The courts are not likely to support Trump’s failure to produce documents and not allowing witnesses to appear in a constitutionally established impeachment enquiry.

 Fox News is being told by its new Board Member former House Speaker Paul Ryan to dump Trump. There is already public dissent within Fox to being Trump’s echo chamber. The Fox chief legal analyst has opined that the President’s actions are criminal.

 Every fact needs to be checked. Every allegation corroborated. If that is done and thirty Republican don’t join the Democrats to fire Trump, after the House has impeached him, the Republican Party is truly finished. If you don’t believe Jay H. Ell ask Paul Ryan and Mitch Romney who has finally emerged as a potential leader of a Republican faction to dump Trump.

The WhistleBlower has to be a very big deal to have gained the cooperation of so many in the Trump orbit. He solicited information that even Mueller was not privy too. Everything he has stated has been confirmed by the subsequent leaks.

AT THE VERY END OF THE DAY - TO RUSSIA WITH LOVE

At the United Nations Trump advised President Zelensky to patch up with Putin who had annexed a chunk of his country and was invading East Ukraine. As Jonathon Alter stated this request was akin to Belgium, after being devastated by the Nazis, being instructed to patch it up with Hitler. It is obvious that that outcome is Trump’s endgame as then he could withdraw the sanctions against Russia. Accommodating Russia has been what it has been about from the beginning and still is what it is about now. As has now been leaked the Putin conversations are also safely locked up together with the American nuclear secrets and the transcripts of Trump’s discussion with President Zelensky.

At the very end of the day this outcome was inevitable.  In many ways it is a miracle or a blot on the American judicial system that Trump survived his decades long unsavory chaotic business career. He always operates near the edge and a feature of his psychological pathology is that he does not learn from experience. Only he, at this time, is fantasizing a triumphant second term, a legacy as the greatest American President ever, a Trump dynasty with Donald Junior in the WhiteHouse and a flourishing Trump Business Empire. So hold onto your seats as Trump goes even more ballistic. America is in for a bumpy ride.

TRUMP AND HIS UK AND ISRAELI BED FELLOWS

The internet has magnified the impact of any viewpoint and turned the advent of populism into a global phenomenon. Today’s instantaneous means of spreading influence has been mastered by the leader of the world’s most powerful nation, Donald J. Trump. He has also connected with other leaders who have taken on his nativistic mantle including America’s closest allies - the United Kingdom, (UK), and Israel. All three megalomaniac heads of these democratic countries have leveraged the disconnect that existed between those that govern and their electorate, capitalizing on their anger towards elites and their fear of those who are unlike them. As there is literally no method to their madness the demogogues sow the seeds of their own destruction. The fear is that they might take everyone else with them.

Trump who is intoxicated with the attention that his inane tweets engender, has been in constant contact with Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu and the United Kingdom’s new prime minister Boris Johnson. All three of them however have become victims of the electoral success of their simplistic solutions to complex problems. Trump faces the consequences of his incoherent ill thought out foreign policy actions, Boris Johnson is caught up in translating his catchy concept of leaving the European Union, (EU), into reality while not destroying his country’s economy in the process, while Bibi Netanyahu is trying to square the circle of solving the future of the Palestinian peoples by denying any possibility of their statehood. 

All three of these modern day wunderkinder have no way of translating their nationalistic vote catching slogans into actuality. They have no real vision for their countries other than their knee jerk catchy solutions that lead nowhere and or have destructive consequences. Another feature they all share is that they are willing to smash convention, tradition and the unspoken rules of their democratic societies. All three have been labelled unashamed liars, (a UK Supreme Court is hearing a charge that Johnson lied to the Queen),while Bibi and Donald are in trouble with the law. 

BORIS AND BREXIT

Boris Johnson, a former Mayor of London who was the face of the Brexit campaign is now saddled with executing what he supposedly had in mind when he advocated the UK leaving the EU. (Brexit is the acronym for Britain “exiting” the EU). He can no longer snipe from the sidelines as he has to square the circle he cracked open. On his elevation to the British Premiership he floated the line that he would leave Europe with no deal if they couldn’t get a “good deal”. Needless to say that admission created hysteria resulting in successful votes of no confidence with defections from his own party. His response, taking a leaf from the Trump playbook, was by breaking centuries of precedent, by shutting down Parliament so that he could halt discussion on the issue. 

Nobody, least of all Boris, knows what would happen if there is no favorable accommodations when the break with Europe comes into effect on October 31. There is currently talk of stockpiling of certain necessities including medications as trade will grind to a halt. Already London which was the European financial capitol has witnessed a drain of those very institutions that have given status, clout and finance. Boris leaving the EU without agreements that would dampen the economic impact could result in Scotland succeeding from the UK. The Scots voted against Brexit. The nation recently had a referendum to become independent from the UK which was narrowly defeated. It showed widespread support for standing alone, forty - five percent wanting to do what Boris wants to do with Europe. 

The biggest problem for Boris has to be the opposition of the Irish to Brexit. Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK and Southern Ireland which is independent had an open border as they were both members of the EU. If the UK exits without a deal the bizarre situation could come about with a border between two states with all that implies - politically, diplomatically, customs control not to mention the free flow of workers, family and friends across the border. The Catholics in Northern Ireland fought a long war to join their brethren in the independent Southern Irish Republic. The carnage was only halted in the late 1990’s. The revolutionary army of the Irish Republican Army, (IRA), only in 2005 formerly announced its armed fight against the UK. So Boris’s ill thought out desire could open a massive can of worms.

In spite of all the UK Government problems the EU officials have said that they are not extending the Brexit date and are more than narked at the British destructive behavior. Boris stormed out of a meeting in Luxembourg because the crowd booed him.  

With parliament prorogued, Johnson without a majority, combating court challenges and a strong faction in favor of another referendum at least giving the electorate a choice as to what Brexit might mean to them, nobody knows how this going to end, least of all,Trump’s soulmate, populist Boris Johnson. 

If it is any consolation Trump has reassured Johnson, without any details, that America trade with the Brexit UK will more than make up for their losses out of the EU. However dynamo Donald, like everything else he tweets on, is not defined, 

ISRAEL’S BIBI

Bibi and Donald are the closest that heads of nation states have come to being a mutual admiration society. However the American educated Israeli is far too bright not to be the fawner in chief of Trump naming this that and the other after him. The long serving Premier of America’s closest ally has enough insight into his own vanity to realize how important it is to a megalomaniac to be the center of attraction and that is where he has allowed the real estate developer to be. The two populist leaders share many situations both being the subject of corruption charges and both exquisitely gearing policy to their own personal survival and needs. 

 Netanyahu in the ten years he has been Premier has not attempted to resolve the burning issue relating to the creation of a two state solution. Rather he has exacerbated the tensions between the Israelis and Palestinians in an attempt to create fear and mobilize right wing support. He has of course been helped by the terrorism of Hamas but at the end of the day he is making no attempt to keep Israel out of permanent war state. As a desperate last minute election ploy he stated that if he won the election he would occupy the West Bank. That would mean incorporating the Palestinian territory into the Israeli State which even his supporters believe he would never do. Added to his divisive racist activities he has pandered to the right by trying to relegate Israeli Arabs to second class status. Guess what he also accused them of voter fraud in the last election where he failed to create a government. Like Trump this secularist hypocrite has pandered to the religious right to maintain power and has put down his failure to gain a majority in the recent election as a result of media bias. 

In short Bibi Netanyahu has no end game to secure a peaceful Israel. 

As this is being written his duplicity may finally be meeting its come uppance. Once again he has failed to persuade enough of the electorate to support him and his allies to allow him to continue his Premiership. His racism has mobilized the Arab vote who polled in far higher numbers than in the previous election. Like Trump he needs the cover of being the country’s leader to shield him from the law. His court dates are scheduled for early October. He had hoped that a new Knesset under his administration would grant him immunity from prosecution.

The Donald has done anything and everything to assist Netanyahu to retain his control over Israel. However, true to fashion he has not contacted the outgoing Israeli Premier to commiserate with him. Bibi will be watching from the sidelines as his former best friend sells him out on Iran.

DONALD J. TRUMP - RESIGNED AS LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD.

The American President has had a more spectacular backlash than those of Boris and Bibi. (The former no longer has a governing majority while it would take a miracle to see the latter as Prime Minister of Israel again). Trump has splintered the party that put him in power, having lost the Republican suburban white women and youth which translated into a 46 seat loss in the House of Representatives elections a few months ago. It will only be evident next November whether the Hispanics will mobilize against him as a result of his racist smears of the Latinos. He is also facing an octopus like series of litigations and scandals which sooner or later will result in the shattering of his narrative of being a rich and non corrupt leader of the people.

Donald J. Trump has to be Plato’s original populist. What makes his behavior most far reaching is that he is President of the most powerful country in the world. He reigns over a post second WWII planet where America has been, albeit imperfect, the arbiter of morality and the promotor of human rights and civil liberty.Trump has favored dictators and countries that suit his personal business connections, promoted divisiveness and is hell bent in unravelling the world order. His tweeting contradictory one liners have sown havoc. For purposes of this piece Jay H. Ell will choose just one crisis that illustrates his lack of any clear policy on anything - the alleged Iranian bombing of Saudi oil refineries.

Trump’s irrationality has slowly but surely risked a major Middle East war. He started off by unilaterally pulling out of the nuclear deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the Security Council and China. He trashed the nuclear deal because it didn’t include ballistic missiles and introduced crippling sanctions on the Iranians. What is more he declared war on any company that did business with Iran threatening them with sanctions.

He has backed the Saudis up the ying yang whom he had told his adoring fans that “he loved because they bought properties from him paying tens of millions of dollars". He ignored the murderous behavior of the new de facto leader Mohammed Bin Salman, backed him in his genocidal war in Yemen, (which is a proxy war against Iran) and armed the Saudis to the teeth. In fact all these actions have been  bilaterally condemned by Congress. Trump has vetoed five pieces of legislation four of them involve the Kingdom of Saud.

Lately he has floated two totally contradictory lines on Iran who have been previously involved in provocative acts on the high seas. In the one instance he is “locked and loaded” implying that he is ready to start a shooting war and on the other he is prepared to meet President Rouhani without any preconditions. The hardliner Iran establishment, whose psychodynamics the bankrupt New York real estate dealer doesn’t quite understand, responded that they didn’t want to meet with Trump and then promptly knocked half of the Trump ally Saudi Arabia’s oil production thereby pushing up the price of oil by fifteen percent. The US Commander in Chief didn’t know what to do without consulting with the Saudis other then issue more sanctions. 

In short Trump is incompetent to deal with the chaos he has created in the Middle East. More tellingly it has becoming more and more clear that The Donald has a relationship with Russia and Saudi Arabia that he would prefer not to share with “We The People”. It is also obvious that his tax returns may tell some of the story….. 

Jay H. Ell sticks to the question his most recent blog asks, “Will Trump Last Till 2020?”.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

There is every hope that the checks and balances in the democracies might halt the destructive ignorant and totalitarian behavior of their elected populist leaders. However, don’t hold your breath as these three characters, Boris, Bibi and Donald have not hesitated to shatter every norm that has been the basis of their institutions and governmental system. They might do anything to retain power. 

WILL TRUMP LAST TILL 2020?

It is increasingly more evident that Donald J. Trump is becoming a danger to America and the world with his ignorant unpredictable contradictory chaotic tweets on governance, economics, trade, foreign relations and the issuance of totalitarian and illegal edicts. All this raises the question as to whether he has the competence to last out his full term of government let alone have a second term. The burning question is why are the Republican legislators not cutting their losses and dumping him before it is too late to salvage anything from the wreck?

TRUMP DISPLAYS ABNORMAL BEHAVIOR AT THE G7 WORLD FORUM

The POTUS’S “inappropriateness” was on display at the G-7 World Forum where his main agenda item was admitting the rogue nation Russia which was expelled from that august company for illegally seizing Crimea. Trump stated that he would unilaterally invite Putin to the club meeting in 2020 and try and make it once again the G8. All this added fuel to the narrative of the four hundred page Mueller report where he welcomed Russia’s illegal assistance in electing him President and then obstructed the enquiry that documented the fact. 

Some of the Trump behavior at the world forum of the most powerful nations was bizarre even by his own standards. The world watched agog as within a space of three days he turned the Chinese President from an enemy to a personal friend. All this to the accompaniment of the vertiginous response of American and world stock markets. Trump whose fantasizing reached monumental proportions claimed he had two calls from the Chinese who were desperate for a trade deal. He could not provide any evidence for this fact when the Chinese denied that they had contacted him. 

He gave several reasons as to why he missed the climate discussions including that he was having a meeting with the Indian and German heads of state. The problem being that the latter were photographed at the climate session. This response was even worse than his initial answer that his inattendance was because the session hadn’t yet begun when it was already over.  Inter alia he claimed that The First Lady had a favorable opinion of Kim Jung Un whom she “had gotten to know”. The bewildered Melania Trump issued a statement that she had never ever met the North Korean dictator. 

He went on and on attacking President Obama at least a dozen times including blaming him for the Russian annexation of Crimea. Trump then claimed  Obama was outsmarted by Putin so he  punished Putin by chucking him out of the then G8 making it the G7. The POTUS then put in a plug for the G7 meeting to be held in 2020 at one of his properties claiming among other features that there was a large area for parking and colossal ballrooms. This infomercial in soliciting business for his own private account is against the Constitution and contravenes The Emolument Clause.

Emmanuel Macron, the President of France who has taken over as the leader of the free world, a position that has been occupied by the President of America since World War II, treated The Donald like the spoilt brat of the family that had reluctantly been brought to the party. Macron deferred to him with great respect to forestall him imploding and embarrassing his kith and kin. The French President publicly agreed that China’s trade practices needed regulation but his solution differed wildly from the “spoilt brat” in that it lay with the World Trade Organization. Macron put Trump on the spot by inviting the Iranian Foreign Minister as a guest to the meeting. The “outsmarted” Trump then stated he would meet the Iranian President Rhohani without preconditions. Bibi Netanyahu must be pulling his hair out.  

Just to show that Trump was not neglecting the home front he tweeted that Jerome Powell who he had appointed to Head the Federal Reserve was an enemy of America - presumably like Xi Jinping was before he was reassigned to respectability. 

He then mooted a solution to the hurricane bearing down on Puerto Rica and his properties in the South Atlantic - an atomic weapon to nuke it.  

“TRUMP THE PRESIDENT” THE SEQUEL TO “THE APPRENTICE”.

Jay H. Ell has to confess that he now bursts into peals of laughter at Trumpisms. He is real first rate stand up comic. He should have chosen that career rather than reality TV after he failed three times in real estate ventures. However he still fancies himself as both a real estate developer and reality TV star. All that in addition to being the greatest President in the history of America whose inaugural was attended by the largest audience ever.

As the Trump one man reality show chaotically bounces on on all channels for over twelve hours a day the exhausted public are unable to escape watching him. This is not because they are enchanted or even addicted, rather the reason is that what shows impacts their daily lives. Unlike in “The Apprentice”, the reality TV President’s first show, it cannot be taken off the air for lack of viewer interest. “The Apprentice” only ran from September to May. (Season one’s finale had a viewership of twenty - eight million and the tenth rendition of the monumental sadistic bore’s finale the viewership was down to four million.) One might have thought that Fox would have got the message as they follow up at night with commentary and sycophantic critique of the spin off sequel of “The Apprentice” namely “Trump The President” a fourteen hour one man daily show. As a result there is close on twenty - four hours of the POTUS. The electorate are exhausted. Fox must be reeling at Trump’s latest injunctive to his cult followers to find another channel as Fox has deserted him for too much coverage of the Democratic Primary.

The problem with the sequel of “The Apprentice” is that “Trump The President” is the real deal for nearly four hundred million Americans and the rest of the world. Donald Trump is not just dishing out a two hundred and fifty thousand job at the end of mercifully a six month term he is in charge of budget of close on four trillion dollars. Much like in The Donald’s business ventures America is running at a record deficit of close on a trillion dollars this year. 

THE QUESTION OF WHETHER TRUMP IS WITH THE PROGRAM OR NOT

The problem however is not only that Donald is playing games with planet earth, its climate and its peoples is that he is far from the top of his game. A New York Times best seller has thirty - seven mental health workers diagnosing him from being a malignant narcissist to suffering from progressive senile dementia. While it should be almost treason to call him a sociopath the fact that he displays several of the characteristics does not pass unnoticed. The one conclusion of all the normally cautious psychiatric professionals is that he is dangerous, hence the title of their book, “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump”. It is common cause that he is a pathological liar and The Washington Post have documented over twelve thousand, about twenty a day, at last count. His enablers and supporters don’t even bother to argue that he is lying they defend the indefensible by mouthing the talking point, “Don’t worry about what he says just look at what he does”. The fact that what he does is more or less what he says does not seem to bother them. 

All this has led to the former Republican, but still conservative, Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin concluding that when he is not lying he sounds crazy. She gives as examples of the “craziness”, Trump discussing Iran and North Korea in relation to their real estate potential. She suggests that the media ask each and every Republican, for example, as to whether the trade negotiations are in good hands. Professor Roach of Yale and a former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia operations opined on CNBC that, “The President has become almost unhinged in dealing with China on a day to day basis”. A follow up question might be whether  they are comfortable with the nuclear codes being in his hands. 

The bottom line is when will the Republican legislators call it quits? They are leaders of their States and constituencies and can salvage some of what is left of the GOP. Congress is in recess but they will return on September 9 the GOP members are going to have face reality.  

WHAT WILL MOVE THE REPUBLICANS WHO ARE IN DENIAL?

While the irresistable inference is that impeachment will impede Trump from completing his first term that is not Jay H. Ell’s only hypothesis. Rather as the insanity progresses the legislative Republicans will have to get rid of him one way or another. The Republicans deafening silence cannot be challenged till they return to Washington. The summer recess ends on the ninth of September and all hell should break loose. However the dam walls will only finally break when the Trump approval rate hits thirty percent. Currently it is slowly moving down - one poll reflecting his positivity rating at thirty-eight percent. Women voters are deserting him in even greater numbers than the 2018 midterms. What is more climate change and gun control are mobilizing the youth to come out and vote.

The prospect of facing fourteen more months of these rants has to be striking fear into the hearts of those Republicans standing for election in 2020. A record number of legislators have already bowed out. For the moment Trump has the caucus’s slavish support although it would be surprising if they are not huddling in corners whispering over their dilemma. It is patently obvious under the leadership of Mitch McConnell they are not going to take a stand on principle. The parameters they will use is their own reelectability are the numbers. 

For the moment, although Trump’s approval numbers are slowly dropping they still hover around forty percent. They have to delude themselves that the Democrats can’t repeat their 2018 effort. Further they have to fantasize that the three key demographics that are moving away from them - the Hispanics, women and the youth will come back or at least that the hemorrhaging will stop. They can hope that the Democrats will choose Bernie Sanders who will not get any independents and for whom the African American turnout will not be optimal… . In short their faith is that 2018 is a one off fluke.

The numbers however don’t support their denials of reality. The generic vote still represents a large enough gap for the Democrats to win the Presidency, eke out the Senate and increase its majority in the House. Trump may supposedly be holding onto the Republican base but he is massively under water in all the key states. In the Midwest where he gained victory in the Electoral College by a total 70,000 votes he has gone from positive to a big negative  - Wisconsin, (+6 to -14), Michigan, (+7 to -11), Pennsylvania, (+10 to -8), Ohio, (+14 - 6) and Iowa, (+14 to -6).  Also every poll shows the top three Democrats beating Trump with Biden at a figure between the 15% to 20% which swing is reflected in the Midwest. 

Still the Republicans stand around waiting for Godot. There are some elections in 2019 where matters look ugly. There are three Governorships in blood red states which are toss up and if anything they are leaning Democrat - Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. Then the blue party is on the verge of flipping both State Houses in Virginia. Finally there is the rerun of North Carolina ninth district which was traditionally a strong Republican seat narrowly won in 2018 by the GOP.  The result was declared null and void because the GOP winner was found to be put over the top by fraudulently manipulating absentee votes. 

Jay H. Ell’s guess is that the Republicans are waiting for Trump’s approval rate to drop to thirty percent but then it will be too late. Georgia, Arizona and Texas let alone Florida will become dicey in those circumstances as will be some of those legislators that are hanging in.

CONSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS TO DUMP TRUMP

There are two constitutional mechanisms whereby Trump can be dispensed with both of which need widespread Republican  support. The first is via the 25th Amendment which is exclusively a Republican prerogative to initiate. To set the process in motion the Cabinet have to move that the President is unable to perform his duties. The other is impeachment by the House of Representatives and then removal in the Republican controlled Senate. The wily and politically savvy Nancy Pelosi is not prepared to set impeachment articles in motion as the electorate have not read the Mueller report. They are fixated with the narrative Trump’s consigliere William Barr peddled for a month before the Mueller bombshell came out. Barr completely exonerated Trump.

So as matters stand unless the Republican legislators educate their constituents to the truth they will have to wince and answer for their “lying, crazy” President whose behavior becomes more and more erratic by the day. Can they tolerate another international embarrassment like the one they have just witnessed this time at a Trump Hotel with Vladimir Putin as his paying house guest? He is currently shamelessly ignoring Puerto Rica’s plight while paying the utmost concern fro Republican Florida in the wake of the pending hurricane. Maybe they just call it quits and pressure him to resign and persuade John Kasich to run. He will lose but will allow Republicans not to spend their campaign time defending the indefensible. 

There is one lingering hope that might save the Republican legislators from taking any initiative that is if any of the multiple court decisions break against Trump. Whether it be on his taxes, subpoenaed documents or allowing witnesses to appear before Congress that expose what he is desperately trying to hide the outcome may well shock the Republican base forcing their representatives to dump Trump.

Finally if the GOP legislators are going to hang in there they should at least reassure their leader that he is not running against Barak Obama. Trump is confused and obsessed with beating him even though he is not on the ballot. 

In this bizarre period in history nothing would surprise and what is there to stop him declaring WWIII - certainly not Mitch McConnell and his band of orchidectomized Republicans.