June 26, 2019 signaled the formal opening of the long drawn out process to name a Democratic Presidential nominee to take on Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election. For what it is worth Kamala Harris dominated, Warren did herself no harm, Castro put himself on the map and Sanders took one step back for mankind while Biden took two.
The intensity of the proceedings and the hype associated with the debates, eighteen months from D Day, was indicative of how crucial the forthcoming encounter is viewed. There is consensus that it is the most far - reaching election in living memory. Some commentators hark back to the Lincoln - Douglas election of 1860 while others delve even further back to the Jefferson - Adams encounter at the turn of the eighteen century. Both of these represented binary choices as to the direction the country would take in the future thereby delineating the ethos of the Republic for years to follow. So let it be in 2020 with America at the crossroads.
AMERICA AT THE CROSSROADS.
It is not hyperbole to claim that America is at a crossroads both nationally and internationally. While Donald Trump is the face of the new ugly America he, as matters stand, has the backing of forty percent of the electorate. Trump’s policies are illustrative of the America that he believes gives him the best chance to be re elected. From national to international issues Trump has unashamedly staked his radical position. Internationally he has backed dictatorship over democracy. Nationally he has trashed every value that the Founding Fathers dreamed that the Republic would reach for. It is fair to say that America, even before Trump, had a long way to go. However, though progress was slow, the rhetoric was always towards the grand vision,“… that all men were created equal and that were endowed by their Creator with inalienable rights”. In the twentieth century the world superpower America albeit clumsily, but with much success, extended their dream to the world.
While Trump represents a reversal of the Founding Fathers’ visionary policies and values, in the final practical analysis this crucial election will be won or lost on whether he can once again persuade enough voters in the key States that he has their interests more at heart than the alternative candidate that the Democrats will put up. He has already telegraphed what his smear is going to be, namely that the Democratic candidate will be a socialist and a vote for him or her is a vote for Karl Marx.
WHO AND WHAT SHOULD TRUMP’S OPPONENT REPRESENT.
There is consensus in every survey conducted among Democratic voters that their number one priority for choice of candidate is that he or she must have the where with all to beat Trump.
No one could fail to be impressed with the array of talent that the Democratic Party paraded over their two day debates. To their credit they largely resisted the temptation to trash each other, rather exuding positivity. (The one major clash was Kamala Harris’s dismantling of front runner Biden’s casual references to the racists that he worked with 50 years ago in the Senate and his failure to Federally endorse bussing). This display of unanimity, rarely witnessed in politics, is indicative of the conscious and unconscious recognition of the party that they are on the cusp of history and the agenda is to reset the direction of America in the twenty - first century.
The question to be answered is who and what should be the approach of the man or woman that is to carry this burden. Should she or he be a moderate appealing to the center as did both Lincoln and Jefferson did or in the words of Billy Joel is the most appropriate counter to Trump “An angry young man”. (Of course in this age it could well be an angry young woman).
“There is a place in the world for the angry young man
With his working class ties and his radical plans
He refuses to bend he refuses to crawl………”
In this dilemma it is not only policies and attitude that come into the reckoning, gender and identity play a very important role - more so than ever before. It was Trump who was the “angry young man” in 2016 with his alleged “working class ties and his radical plans”. However first and foremost was his mobilization of identity, white identity. Bernie who was the Democrats “angry young man” has never fully appreciated the role of identity in American politics. Trump In so doing has now unleashed the anger and consequently the power of African American and Latin American kinship. As matters stand these groups are for practical purposes affiliated with the Democratic Party. The vast Democratic Presidential field reflects this identity reality. For the Democrats the fear is not that these demographics could vote for Trump it is whether they will decline to turn out because the candidate fails to take into account their needs and dignity.
There has been a feeling among African Americans that their loyalty and vote has been taken for granted. In the 2016 election a significant number did not pull the lever for Hillary, inspite of the fact that they had decisively chosen her over Bernie. The latter found it difficult as a protagonist of class and economics in politics to make the leap that identity was important on top of that. The lessons of 2016 are ignored at the Democrats peril in 2020.
There is one other variable which was brought home by the candidates in the first debate - the Democrats have to defeat Mitch McConnell and win back the Senate to be able to advance any agenda. The Senate control by the Republicans is favored by a system whereby California, population forty million has the same number of Senators as North and South Dakota, round about a million each. Nancy Pelosi, the architect of the 2018 Democratic takeover of the House, eats, sleeps and drinks this reality.
The second debate focussed on the importance of identity. However what both debates revealed was that the contenders, regardless of where they saw themselves on the policy spectrum were, to a lesser or greater extent, angry young women or men. Where they separated was “with their working class ties and their radical plans” as well as their status with the different demographics. The ideal candidate would have connections with the Mid West white worker as well as the three dominant constituencies in the Party - African Americans, the Latinos and the young radicals.
TRUMP COMPREHENDS THE ELECTORAL REALITIES BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE.
No - one understands the variables operating in the 2020 election better than Trump who is mindful that it was 70,000 white voters that allowed him to flip three Mid Western States and win the electoral College, having lost the popular vote by over three million. (This gap expanded in the 2018 midterms where the Democrats received eight million more votes than Trump’s party).
His modus operandi is exactly the same this time round. He has kept a white cult following of about forty percent of the electorate. He knows this keeps him in striking distance of the electoral College. He needs in addition to win back the white voters that deserted the Republican Party in 2018 when his name was not on the ballot. He has a massive war chest and has the advantage of the incumbency. Besides his immigration policies, health and economic arguments his chief platform will be a repeat of 2016 by belittling the Democratic nominee. It will be “crooked Hillary” act two. This time it will be “socialist crooked Hillary”.
HOW ARE MATTERS STACKED UP?
The bar for Trump is low. While as long as the present electoral system exists it is high for the Democrats. The nomination is Biden’s to lose and if there is continuation of his lackluster unimaginative debate performance he is well on his way. His roots are with the Mid West white worker. He has the African American support as Obama’s trusted Vice President. He however displays an arrogance and inability to admit that the times have rapidly moved on and that decisions he made fifty years while understandable are unacceptable now. To defend and rationalize them pinpoints his disconnect with his constituencies.
With regard to the others, Warren will certainly replace Sanders as the favorite of those with “working class ties and radical plans”. Her current status with the African Americans is an improvement on Bernie’s as a result of African American older women connecting with her. Harris has left of center credentials as well as being of the correct identity and gender group. She is also the smartest and sharpest tool in the shed by far and seems finally to have found her Senate incisiveness on the first stage that matters. She emerged well ahead of anyone else on debate performance enhancing her reputation by leaps and bounds. Corrie Booker epitomizes the angry young man but has not as yet connected well enough to push him into the top tier.. Persuasive Julian Castro has found a lane not occupied by any one else as the only Hispanic in the race. Also as a previous mayor of San Antonio he succeeded in knocking out the other Texan Beto O’Rorke. The fact that he was an Obama cabinet member could well result in him inheriting his imprimatur if he is still standing at the business end of the race.
The governors and the others have plenty going for them but only have a short window to prove themselves. Buttigieg, Mayor in a mid west town, who shot out of the pack has been plagued with the identity issue that heralded The Black Lives Matter movement - black deaths at the hands of white police. How he handles the tragedy that hit his small town may increase his status.
But at the end of the day what is really going to matter is who wins New Hampshire and Iowa or at least how well they perform there. Hillary led Obama amongst African Americans in 2008. It was only after he shone in those two Primaries that they switched, to the Clintons’ anger. Biden’s current ranking with that demographic is also based on the assumption that he has the best credentials to beat Trump.
There is also another major variable that can impact where this will go in 2020 - Trump’s multiple legal jeopardies within and without Congress. The Courts could rule that his stonewalling of Congress’s oversight is illegal and his world would collapse. He has a number of civil litigations that are going forward. With his calculated cruelty on the border he may never be able to win back the Republican white suburban women. His foreign policies are already causing Senate Republicans, in small numbers, to disaffect. So Trump is hanging on by a thread and he may well implode before November 2020.
All of this begs the question as to who can take on Donald Trump, who in the space of two years has moved the aspiration of America from a liberal democratic utopia to an unashamed cruel totalitarian dictatorship. While Nancy Pelosi shrewdly orchestrated the Democratic midterm slaughter of the Republicans on everything that wasn’t Trump, Trump himself was not on the ballot. Will her strategy work when he is? One fact is for sure every Democratic contender is angry and would give as good as she or he gets.
So all in all the odds makers who are making The Donald an even money outright favorite to win the Presidency are not going to get any takers at this stage….
THE FUTURE
What these debates did was illustrate the depth of leadership in the Democratic Party. It also lays bare their wide philosophical differences that are for the moment papered up by the existential crisis that America finds itself in. Although it is unlikely that one of the lesser candidates will break through several would not disgrace themselves in a Presidential election. The Republicans bench, by comparison, is pathetic. It begins and ends with Nikki Halley. This state of affairs illustrates how Trump has emasculated the GOP turning it into a slavish cult. The Republican Party will take years to recover. The question still remains are the Republican legislator wimps going to allow the country to go down with them as well.
In the final analysis although the Democratic Party is racked by divisions it is at least still a Party. The same cannot be said for the GOP. Not that it will matter if Trump wins because after his eight years it will be an Ivanka/Jared ticket and they will pardon him…. So Democratic candidates in your excitement to win the nomination don’t put yourself in a position that will send those who crossed in the midterms back into the arms of Trump.
UPDATE. Trump has moved on from World War Three with Iran to winning a Nobel Peace Prize for loving Rocket Man. He also has backed off on China for the moment.
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