The inevitable has happened. Trump who conducts foreign policy all on his own with toxic tweets, which he shoots out with machine gun rapidity, bullying and threatening is one false move away from setting light to the tinderbox that is the Middle East in another self made crisis. The amazing reality is that it has taken this long for him to land in this explosive mess. Foreign policy is complicated and complex. Trump believes he can negotiate the byzantine world like one of his business deals - bluff and bluster and the other side will cave. If he miscalculates he can always go bankrupt and play the victim. Similarly he can always declare victory by claiming he is in love with the world’s most heinous thugs and then get back to tweeting about crooked Hillary and the system which is rigged. With Iran, missiles and aircraft carriers its not so simple - one mistake too many and it all goes up in flames.
IRAN HOLD THE CARDS FOR THE MOMENT AGAINST IMPULSIVE TRUMP
Whether it is true or not that the POTUS halted a major airstrike against Iran in the last minute the story proves the point - there is an unstable captain at the helm in a rerun of George Orwell 1984 and Dr. Strangelove. His Atlantic City casino like modus operandi has led America and the world to a dice throw away from World War Three. The Iranian actors that he has bated are tougher, smarter, more evil and a magnitude more disciplined than him. Iran is a hardened customer that weighs its moves carefully. To make matters worse the theocracy is in an alliance with Russia and Syria in the Middle East where they and America are on opposite sides. It is hard to believe that the Iranian National Guard would have instituted these provocative actions without the say so or at least the knowledge of Russia.
The crisp point is that Trump’s non existent National Security Team should be pondering what on earth made Iran make this move and what does it portend?
One thing is for sure, unlike Trump the Iranians are sure to have plans B, C and beyond. They have to believe that Trump, having enraged his allies, with not even a Secretary of Defense in place, has to be at his weakest while they have all the options to attack his allies locally.
FOREIGN POLICY - TRUMP STYLE
It is important to look at the genesis of this stand off in the hope that his Republican legislative enablers who have sold their Party and their country for a mess of judges and an economically disastrous tax cut can act decisively once and for all before it is too late.
As foreign relations stand the President is in a monumental trade battle with China with potentially meaningful enough implications to frighten the Federal Reserve Chairman to change course and prepare for a possible recession. He is fighting with American neighbors Mexico and Canada, “in love” with the worst living dictator, Kim Jin Un, backing Russia’s Putin over America’s intelligence agencies and favoring every totalitarian dictator under the sun. While cuddling up to all the dictators he attacks the USA’s traditional allies in NATO, threatening to break the seventy year old alliance, regardless of the consequences, because they are allegedly sponging on America.
There has been a downhill momentum in decision making since the few adults that were in the US National Security “team” have finally cut and run. The untenable positions of the two generals McMaster and Mathis have left the field wide open for the Bush hawks John Bolton and Mike Pompeo. Haven’t the unfinished lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan taught anybody anything?
History will dryly assess the Trump regime as changing America’s moral and political position from being the flag bearer of liberal democracy to allying themselves with totalitarian dictatorships.
Trump as part of his campaign rhetoric, and as he is always in campaign mode his Presidential narrative as well, maintained that the painstakingly crafted nuclear accord by the US, UK, Germany, China, France and Russia on the one side and Iran on the other, was the worst deal ever and he would pull out of it. Just like with Obamacare which he is still trying to systematically trash he has nothing to put in its place. So he has piled on the economic pressure on the Iranian regime. However there is no follow through. He was hoping that Iran would just roll over and come turbans in hand and cry uncle.
His insight into Middle Eastern psychology is about as expert as his knowledge of the South East Asian culture. Now that Iran haven't just konked in and suprisingly taken the initiative Trump as he has illustrated to the world is at a total loss as to what he should do.
SO WHAT NOW?
The POTUS is in a lose - lose situation. He can either show how tough he is or how weak he is. For the moment weakness is mercifully winning out. Trump really is terrified of a war for a host of reasons including the fact that even his base is dead against it - so much for the toughness. He is already in “Obama territory” having changed his mind about aggression in mid sentence - weakness is on display. To show how desperate he really felt he “consulted” with the leaders of both parties, following which no Republican came before the microphones leaving it to Nancy and Chuck to narrate that they gave the President advice to act presidentially.
Trump has done what he so often does in the middle of a self made crisis - created another one. He has ordered the immediate expulsion of 2,000 non documented families. This is another recipe for chaos not the least because of the fact that among the “illegals” have to be a large number of children born in the USA - American citizens, whom legally he cannot touch. His response to the charge that he will breaking up families, which criticism he is subjected to daily because of the border cruelty, is to bizarrely attack Obama for initiating family break up. He doesn’t bother to add that even it that was true why is he continuing this evil
Just after he added a national crisis to his international one he backed off the national one as well. He then with all the phony Trump largesse and self confident non sequitur rationale gave Congress two weeks to come up with a solution to the crisis he had just created.
On the other side of the world Iran is sitting in the pound seats increasing their amounts of enriched Uranium. They claim that are entitled to as the US have unilaterally broken the Nuclear Treaty. They could initiate another Japanese tanker episode. Trump has to hope that they just sit tight and he can then walk away and declare victory or claim he is receiving love letters from the Ayatollah. Jay H. Ell believes the next move will be Iran’s.
The signatories to the Nuclear Agreement are sitting back in quiet glee watching the buffoon’s discomfiture. That feeling has to be mixed in the instances of Germany, France and the UK who are in the bailiwick of this US created powder keg. Russia has to be thrilled at the very least because the price of oil shot up. China who are in their own war, trade that is, with the US, are not about to volunteer assistance. Premier Xi Jinping in fact is getting very fraternal with Trump’s lover Kim Jin Un. It is beginning to look like Atlantic City all over again…..
Negotiations are not on the cards as what are America going to offer for what? There is no hope in getting unanimity among the previous signatories to the accord. The natural allies are publicly questioning the American story about Iranian responsibility for the tanker attacks. The Iranians have already announced that discussions are a non starter as they cannot trust America to keep its word.
WAR BETWEEN US AND IRAN - HOW WILL IT LOOK
Ilhan Goldenberg the Middle East expert outlined on Fareed Zakaria GPS what a war would look like between the US and Iran.The latter is no push over as in addition to its own extensive military capability there have a proxy network including Syria, Yemen and Hezbollah. Its own missile installations are vast and could wreak havoc in the region. Incidentally its currently neutered nuclear facilities are scattered across the country many being underground representing a challenge to eliminate them all.
Both sides will make every attempt at containment. Trump may hit limited targets. Iran might hit back also with a view not to start an all out war. But the tit for tat can rapidly escalate. For example, it would not be long before the US attempted to take all missile sites out. War would then become inevitable.
The US hope would be, as it was in Iraq, to create a short engagement which would be over in a few weeks. However the outcome could be far worse. For example, Hezbollah have thousands of rockets that it could launch into Israel. Israel would be fully occupied with a probable ground war in Lebanon. They have been there before in an escapade that didn’t end well last time - Israel retreating without achieving its objectives. Iran could take out Sunni Arab capitals such as Riad. There is also every probability that Iraq would back Iran as well… and on and on.
This has the making of another Iraq on steroids. The fact that Iran would be decimated would not limit their capability to wreak ongoing havoc in the region and on American interests. The US would have to remain in the Middle East in great numbers for the foreseeable future.
Who knows where Russia will be in this mix. Iran is an ally in defending Syria’s Assad. It is highly unlikely that the former US allies view this as their battle. One outcome is for certain the world would have changed forever.
AT THE END OF THE DAY?
It is all up in the air while Trump hopes that he can just bluster the whole impasse away. The Donald pontificates that he will up the sanctions and force is not off the table. Alternatively he can imagine a scenario where America is Iran’s best friend! (Eat you heart Kim you might be spurned).The former casino magnate is even offering to Make Iran Great Again. To create further confusion John Bolton has warned Iran not to take Trump’s actions as weakness informing the world that the USA perpetrated a cyberattack on the Shia State. Bolton is in discussion with Bibi Netanyahu who is also a law unto himself. Bolton has made it no secret that he wants regime change in Iran and has called for war in the past. With all the adults gone the scary truth is that Trump is the only barrier to Bolton getting his way.
In case the pandemonium has not yet registered with the Republican legislature it is a minute before midnight. While they hang in for just one more judicial appointment, Trump’s ignorant, criminal and dangerous behavior becomes more and more evident. Illustrating his unsuitability and incompetence their leader has now casually and callously put America on the edge of armageddon. Yet the GOP luminaries still fail to reign in their President. There was a half hearted attempt to censure him on a Middle East arms deal but there was no real leadership to get a veto proof majority.
Meanwhile the world waits in suspense as the Trumpian Greek Tragedy plays out. Apparently the Republicans are sitting it out with them to learn whether Trump will in a fit of pique start World War Three.
There should be a joint Congressional resolution reasserting that Congress and Congress only can declare war. In addition the Congressional leadership should enquire as to what the Administration’s policy and objectives are in this confrontation which started way back when Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of the Joint Nuclear Accord, with not a clue as to what would come next.
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