WHO CAN TAKE ON TRUMP - THE DEBATE BEGINS

 June 26, 2019 signaled the formal opening of the long drawn out process to name a Democratic Presidential nominee to take on Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election. For what it is worth Kamala Harris dominated, Warren did herself no harm, Castro put himself on the map and Sanders took one step back for mankind while Biden took two. 

 The intensity of the proceedings and the hype associated with the debates, eighteen months from D Day, was indicative of how crucial the forthcoming encounter is viewed. There is consensus that it is the most far - reaching election in living memory. Some commentators hark back to the Lincoln - Douglas election of 1860 while others delve even further back to the Jefferson - Adams encounter at the turn of the eighteen century. Both of these represented binary choices as to the direction the country would take in the future thereby delineating the ethos of the Republic for years to follow. So let it be in 2020 with America at the crossroads. 

AMERICA AT THE CROSSROADS.

It is not hyperbole to claim that America is at a crossroads both nationally and internationally. While Donald Trump is the face of the new ugly America he, as matters stand, has the backing of forty percent of the electorate. Trump’s policies are illustrative of the America that he believes gives him the best chance to be re elected. From national to international issues Trump has unashamedly staked his radical position. Internationally he has backed dictatorship over democracy. Nationally he has trashed every value that the Founding Fathers dreamed that the Republic would reach for. It is fair to say that America, even before Trump, had a long way to go. However, though progress was slow, the rhetoric was always towards the grand vision,“… that all men were created equal and that were endowed by their Creator with inalienable rights”. In the twentieth century the world superpower America albeit clumsily, but with much success, extended their dream to the world.  

While Trump represents a reversal of the Founding Fathers’ visionary policies and values, in the final practical analysis this crucial election will be won or lost on whether he can once again persuade enough voters in the key States that he has their interests more at heart than the alternative candidate that the Democrats will put up. He has already telegraphed what his smear is going to be, namely that the Democratic candidate will be a socialist and a vote for him or her is a vote for Karl Marx. 

WHO AND WHAT SHOULD TRUMP’S OPPONENT REPRESENT.

There is consensus in every survey conducted among Democratic voters that their number one priority for choice of candidate is that he or she must have the where with all to beat Trump.  

No one could fail to be impressed with the array of talent that the Democratic Party paraded over their two day debates. To their credit they largely resisted the temptation to trash each other, rather exuding positivity. (The one major clash was Kamala Harris’s dismantling of front runner Biden’s casual references to the racists that he worked with 50 years ago in the Senate and his failure to Federally endorse bussing). This display of unanimity, rarely witnessed in politics, is indicative of the conscious and unconscious recognition of the party that they are on the cusp of history and the agenda is to reset the direction of America in the twenty - first century. 

The question to be answered is who and what should be the approach of the man or woman that is to carry this burden. Should she or he be a moderate appealing to the center as did both Lincoln and Jefferson did or in the words of Billy Joel is the most appropriate counter to Trump “An angry young man”. (Of course in this age it could well be an angry young woman).

“There is a place in the world for the angry young man

  With his working class ties and his radical plans

  He refuses to bend he refuses to crawl………”

In this dilemma it is not only policies and attitude that come into the reckoning, gender and identity play a very important role -  more so than ever before. It was Trump who was the “angry young man” in 2016 with his alleged “working class ties and his radical plans”. However first and foremost was his mobilization of identity, white identity. Bernie who was the Democrats “angry young man” has never fully appreciated the role of identity in American politics. Trump In so doing has now unleashed the anger and consequently the power of African American and Latin American kinship. As matters stand these groups are for practical purposes affiliated with the Democratic Party. The vast Democratic Presidential field reflects this identity reality. For the Democrats the fear is not that these demographics could vote for Trump it is whether they will decline to turn out because the candidate fails to take into account their needs and dignity. 

There has been a feeling among African Americans that their loyalty and vote has been taken for granted. In the 2016 election a significant number did not pull the lever for Hillary, inspite of the fact that they had decisively chosen her over Bernie. The latter found it difficult as a protagonist of class and economics in politics to make the leap that identity was important on top of that. The lessons of 2016 are ignored at the Democrats peril in 2020.

There is one other variable which was brought home by the candidates in the first debate - the Democrats have to defeat Mitch McConnell and win back the Senate to be able to advance any agenda. The Senate control by the Republicans is favored by a system whereby California, population forty million has the same number of Senators as North and South Dakota, round about a million each. Nancy Pelosi, the architect of the 2018 Democratic takeover of the House, eats, sleeps and drinks this reality. 

The second debate focussed on the importance of identity. However what both debates revealed was that the contenders, regardless of where they saw themselves on the policy spectrum were, to a lesser or greater extent, angry young women or men. Where they separated was “with their working class ties and their radical plans” as well as their status with the different demographics. The ideal candidate would have connections with the Mid West white worker as well as the three dominant constituencies in the Party - African Americans, the Latinos and the young radicals.

TRUMP COMPREHENDS THE ELECTORAL REALITIES BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE.

No - one understands the variables operating in the 2020 election better than Trump who is mindful that it was 70,000 white voters that allowed him to flip three Mid Western States and win the electoral College, having lost the popular vote by over three million. (This gap expanded in the 2018 midterms where the Democrats received eight million more votes than Trump’s party).

 His modus operandi is exactly the same this time round. He has kept a white cult following of about forty percent of the electorate. He knows this keeps him in striking distance of the electoral College. He needs in addition to win back the white voters that deserted the Republican Party in 2018 when his name was not on the ballot. He has a massive war chest and has the advantage of the incumbency. Besides his immigration policies, health and economic arguments his chief platform will be a repeat of 2016 by belittling the Democratic nominee. It will be “crooked Hillary” act two. This time it will be “socialist crooked Hillary”.

HOW ARE MATTERS STACKED UP?

The bar for Trump is low. While as long as the present electoral system exists it is high for the Democrats. The nomination is Biden’s to lose and if there is continuation of his lackluster unimaginative debate performance he is well on his way. His roots are with the Mid West white worker. He has the African American support as Obama’s trusted Vice President. He however displays an arrogance and inability to admit that the times have rapidly moved on and that decisions he made fifty years while understandable are unacceptable now. To defend and rationalize them pinpoints his disconnect with his constituencies. 

With regard to the others, Warren will certainly replace Sanders as the favorite of those with “working class ties and radical plans”. Her current status with the African Americans is an improvement on Bernie’s as a result of African American older women connecting with her.  Harris has left of center credentials as well as being of the correct identity and gender group. She is also the smartest and sharpest tool in the shed by far and seems finally to have found her Senate incisiveness on the first stage that matters. She emerged well ahead of anyone else on debate performance enhancing her reputation by leaps and bounds. Corrie Booker epitomizes the angry young man but has not as yet connected well enough to push him into the top tier.. Persuasive Julian Castro has found a lane not occupied by any one else as the only Hispanic in the race. Also as a previous mayor of San Antonio he succeeded in knocking out the other Texan Beto O’Rorke. The fact that he was an Obama cabinet member could well result in him inheriting his imprimatur if he is still standing at the business end of the race.

The governors and the others have plenty going for them but only have a short window to prove themselves. Buttigieg, Mayor in a mid west town, who shot out of the pack has been plagued with the identity issue that heralded The Black Lives Matter movement - black deaths at the hands of white police. How he handles the tragedy that hit his small town may increase his status. 

 But at the end of the day what is really going to matter is who wins New Hampshire and Iowa or at least how well they perform there. Hillary led Obama amongst African Americans in 2008. It was only after he shone in those two Primaries that they switched, to the Clintons’ anger. Biden’s current ranking with that demographic is also based on the assumption that he has the best credentials to beat Trump.

There is also another major variable that can impact where this will go in 2020 - Trump’s multiple legal jeopardies within and without Congress. The Courts could rule that his stonewalling of Congress’s oversight is illegal and his world would collapse. He has a number of civil litigations that are going forward. With his calculated cruelty on the border he may never be able to win back the Republican white suburban women. His foreign policies are already causing Senate Republicans, in small numbers, to disaffect. So Trump is hanging on by a thread and he may well implode before November 2020.

All of this begs the question as to who can take on Donald Trump, who in the space of two years has moved the aspiration of America from a liberal democratic utopia to an unashamed cruel totalitarian dictatorship. While Nancy Pelosi shrewdly orchestrated the Democratic midterm slaughter of the Republicans on everything that wasn’t Trump, Trump himself was not on the ballot. Will her strategy work when he is? One fact is for sure every Democratic contender is angry and would give as good as she or he gets.

So all in all the odds makers who are making The Donald an even money outright favorite to win the Presidency are not going to get any takers at this stage….

THE FUTURE 

What these debates did was illustrate the depth of leadership in the Democratic Party. It also lays bare their wide philosophical differences that are for the moment papered up by the existential crisis that America finds itself in. Although it is unlikely that one of the lesser candidates will break through several would not disgrace themselves in a Presidential election. The Republicans bench, by comparison, is pathetic. It begins and ends with Nikki Halley. This state of affairs illustrates how Trump has emasculated the GOP turning it into a slavish cult. The Republican Party will take years to recover. The question still remains are the Republican legislator wimps going to allow the country to go down with them as well. 

In the final analysis although the Democratic Party is racked by divisions it is at least still a Party. The same cannot be said for the GOP. Not that it will matter if Trump wins because after his eight years it will be an Ivanka/Jared ticket and they will pardon him…. So Democratic candidates in your excitement to win the nomination don’t put yourself in a position that will send those who crossed in the midterms back into the arms of Trump. 

UPDATE. Trump has moved on from World War Three with Iran to winning a Nobel Peace Prize for loving Rocket Man. He also has backed off on China for the moment. 

TRUMP, THE GOP AND WORLD WAR THREE

The inevitable has happened. Trump who conducts foreign policy all on his own with toxic tweets, which he shoots out with machine gun rapidity, bullying and threatening is one false move away from setting light to the tinderbox that is the Middle East in another self made crisis. The amazing reality is that it has taken this long for him to land in this explosive mess. Foreign policy is complicated and complex. Trump believes he can negotiate the byzantine world like one of his business deals - bluff and bluster and the other side will cave. If he miscalculates he can always go bankrupt and play the victim. Similarly he can always declare victory by claiming he is in love with the world’s most heinous thugs and then get back to tweeting about crooked Hillary and the system which is rigged. With Iran, missiles and aircraft carriers its not so simple - one mistake too many and it all goes up in flames. 

IRAN HOLD THE CARDS FOR THE MOMENT AGAINST IMPULSIVE TRUMP

Whether it is true or not that the POTUS halted a major airstrike against Iran in the last minute the story proves the point - there is an unstable captain at the helm in a rerun of George Orwell 1984 and Dr. Strangelove. His Atlantic City casino like modus operandi has led America and the world to a dice throw away from World War Three. The Iranian actors that he has bated are tougher, smarter, more evil and a magnitude more disciplined than him. Iran is a hardened customer that weighs its moves carefully. To make matters worse the theocracy is in an alliance with Russia and Syria in the Middle East where they and America are on opposite sides. It is hard to believe that the Iranian National Guard would have instituted these provocative actions without the say so or at least the knowledge of Russia. 

The crisp point is that Trump’s non existent National Security Team should be pondering what on earth made Iran make this move and what does it portend? 

One thing is for sure, unlike Trump the Iranians are sure to have plans B, C and beyond. They have to believe that Trump, having enraged his allies, with not even a Secretary of Defense in place, has to be at his weakest while they have all the options to attack his allies locally. 

FOREIGN POLICY - TRUMP STYLE 

It is important to look at the genesis of this stand off in the hope that his Republican legislative enablers who have sold their Party and their country for a mess of judges and an economically disastrous tax cut can act decisively once and for all before it is too late. 

As foreign relations stand the President is in a monumental trade battle with China with potentially meaningful enough implications to frighten the Federal Reserve Chairman to change course and prepare for a possible recession. He is  fighting with American neighbors Mexico and Canada, “in love” with the worst living dictator, Kim Jin Un, backing Russia’s Putin over America’s intelligence agencies and favoring every totalitarian dictator under the sun. While cuddling up to all the dictators he attacks the USA’s traditional allies in NATO, threatening to break the seventy year old alliance, regardless of the consequences, because they are allegedly sponging on America. 

There has been a downhill momentum in decision making since the few adults that were in the US National Security  “team” have finally cut and run. The untenable positions of the two generals McMaster and Mathis have left the field wide open for the Bush hawks John Bolton and Mike Pompeo. Haven’t the unfinished lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan taught anybody anything? 

History will dryly assess the Trump regime as changing America’s moral and political position from being the flag bearer of liberal democracy to allying themselves with totalitarian dictatorships. 

Trump as part of his campaign rhetoric, and as he is always in campaign mode his Presidential narrative as well, maintained that the painstakingly crafted nuclear accord by the US, UK, Germany, China, France and Russia on the one side and Iran on the other, was the worst deal ever and he would pull out of it. Just like with Obamacare which he is still trying to systematically trash he has nothing to put in its place. So he has piled on the economic pressure on the Iranian regime. However there is no follow through. He was hoping that Iran would just roll over and come turbans in hand and cry uncle. 

His insight into Middle Eastern psychology is about as expert as his knowledge of the South East Asian culture. Now that Iran haven't just konked in and suprisingly taken the initiative Trump as he has illustrated to the world is at a total loss as to what he should do.

SO WHAT NOW?

The POTUS is in a lose - lose situation. He can either show how tough he is or how weak he is. For the moment weakness is mercifully winning out. Trump really is terrified of a war for a host of reasons including the fact that even his base is dead against it - so much for the toughness. He is already in “Obama territory” having changed his mind about aggression in mid sentence - weakness is on display. To show how desperate he really felt he “consulted” with the leaders of both parties, following which no Republican came before the microphones leaving it to Nancy and Chuck to narrate that they gave the President advice to act presidentially. 

Trump has done what he so often does in the middle of a self made crisis - created another one. He has ordered the immediate expulsion of 2,000 non documented families. This is another recipe for chaos not the least because of the fact that among the “illegals” have to be a large number of children born in the USA - American citizens, whom legally he cannot touch. His response to the charge that he will breaking up families, which criticism he is subjected to daily because of the border cruelty, is to bizarrely attack Obama for initiating family break up. He doesn’t bother to add that even it that was true why is he continuing this evil

Just after he added a national crisis to his international one he backed off the national one as well. He then with all the phony Trump largesse and self confident non sequitur rationale gave Congress two weeks to come up with a solution to the crisis he had just created.

On the other side of the world Iran is sitting in the pound seats increasing their amounts of enriched Uranium. They claim that are entitled to as the US have unilaterally broken the Nuclear Treaty. They could initiate another Japanese tanker episode. Trump has to hope that they just sit tight and he can then walk away and declare victory or claim he is receiving love letters from the Ayatollah. Jay H. Ell believes the next move will be Iran’s. 

The signatories to the Nuclear Agreement are sitting back in quiet glee watching the buffoon’s discomfiture. That feeling has to be mixed in the instances of Germany, France and the UK who are in the bailiwick of this US created powder keg. Russia has to be thrilled at the very least because the price of oil shot up. China who are in their own war, trade that is, with the US, are not about to volunteer assistance.  Premier Xi Jinping in fact is getting very fraternal with Trump’s lover Kim Jin Un. It is beginning to look like Atlantic City all over again…..

Negotiations are not on the cards as what are America going to offer for what? There is no hope in getting unanimity among the previous signatories to the accord. The natural allies are publicly questioning the American story about Iranian responsibility for the tanker attacks. The Iranians have already announced that discussions are a non starter as they cannot trust America to keep its word. 

WAR BETWEEN US AND IRAN - HOW WILL IT LOOK 

Ilhan Goldenberg the Middle East expert outlined on Fareed Zakaria GPS what a war would look like between the US and Iran.The latter is no push over as in addition to its own extensive military capability there have a proxy network including Syria, Yemen and Hezbollah. Its own missile installations are vast and could wreak havoc in the region. Incidentally its currently neutered nuclear facilities are scattered across the country many being underground representing a challenge to eliminate them all.

Both sides will make every attempt at containment. Trump may hit limited targets. Iran might hit back also with a view not to start an all out war. But the tit for tat can rapidly escalate. For example, it would not be long before the US attempted to take all missile sites out. War would then become inevitable. 

The US hope would be, as it was in Iraq, to create a short engagement which would be over in a few weeks. However the outcome could be far worse. For example, Hezbollah have thousands of rockets that it could launch into Israel. Israel would be fully occupied with a probable ground war in Lebanon. They have been there before in an escapade that didn’t end well last time - Israel retreating without achieving its objectives. Iran could take out Sunni Arab capitals such as Riad. There is also every probability that Iraq would back Iran as well… and on and on.

This has the making of another Iraq on steroids. The fact that Iran would be decimated would not limit their capability to wreak ongoing havoc in the region and on American interests. The US would have to remain in the Middle East in great numbers for the foreseeable future.

Who knows where Russia will be in this mix. Iran is an ally in defending Syria’s Assad. It is highly unlikely that the former US allies view this as their battle. One outcome is for certain the world would have changed forever. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY?

It is all up in the air while Trump hopes that he can just bluster the whole impasse away. The Donald pontificates that he will up the sanctions and force is not off the table. Alternatively he can imagine a scenario where America is Iran’s best friend! (Eat you heart Kim you might be spurned).The former casino magnate is even offering to Make Iran Great Again. To create further confusion John Bolton has warned Iran not to take Trump’s actions as weakness informing the world that the USA perpetrated a cyberattack on the Shia State. Bolton is in discussion with Bibi Netanyahu who is also a law unto himself. Bolton has made it no secret that he wants regime change in Iran and has called for war in the past. With all the adults gone the scary truth is that Trump is the only barrier to Bolton getting his way.

 In case the pandemonium has not yet registered with the Republican legislature it is a minute before midnight. While they hang in for just one more judicial appointment, Trump’s ignorant, criminal and dangerous behavior becomes more and more evident. Illustrating his unsuitability and incompetence their leader has now casually and callously put America on the edge of armageddon. Yet the GOP luminaries still fail to reign in their President. There was a half hearted attempt to censure him on a Middle East arms deal but there was no real leadership to get a veto proof majority. 

Meanwhile the world waits in suspense as the Trumpian Greek Tragedy plays out. Apparently the Republicans are sitting it out with them to learn whether Trump will in a fit of pique start World War Three. 

There should be a joint Congressional resolution reasserting that Congress and Congress only can declare war. In addition the Congressional leadership should enquire as to what the Administration’s policy and objectives are in this confrontation which started way back when Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of the Joint Nuclear Accord, with not a clue as to what would come next.

WILL A REAL REPUBLICAN LEADER PLEASE STAND UP

In a week of total Trumpian chaos including the POTUS openly stating that he would break the law, the Republican leadership wimped out. Trump had outright stated that he would accept foreign actors’ intervention in his favor in the 2020 Presidential election. As the calls, from the usual suspects, for impeachment magnified Trump’s base stood firm as the Republican Party legislators bereft of real leadership hung in, in silent acquiescence. At this point in time it is fair to say that Trump’s criminality and his disdain for the American Constitution is not a central part of the debate for the 2020 Presidency. Jay H. Ell believes that the reason for this indifference is that in the Republican constituencies their elected legislators are enabling Trump and condoning his behavior. 

Of all the multiple scandals that broke the worst was at the hands of the Republican legislators, both in the House and the Senate, who refused to back the Democratic Party resolution that the failure to report to the FBI foreign actors’ interference into American campaigns and elections, is a crime punishable by law. 

The week’s events added to the urgent need for a leader to emerge to salvage the Republican Party and its President from morphing into a third world cesspool. Someone needs to rise from the ashes to lead the GOP back to its principles. All this cannot be worth a tax cut and packing the Judiciary with fellow travelers. 

IN THE WEEK THAT WAS THE  TRUMP ENABLERS MAGNIFY THE CHAOS AROUND THE PRESIDENCY

Trump was promptly backed by his enabler in Chief, Mitch McConnell, who refused to act on his unconstitutional behavior welcoming foreign country aid with the lame excuse that “the matter was resolved”.  McConnell had previosly refused to put to the vote a billion dollar appropriation to tighten up election security. 

The slimy Republican head of the Senate, has become more and more tainted by his wife’s corruption making him more and more tied to his wayward President. Ms McConnell, aka as Elaine Chao, who is Trump’s Secretary of Transport, shunted money to the State of Kentucky thereby assisting her husband’s reelection effort. To make matters stink even more she appointed a specific civil servant just to oversea the Kentucky involvement. Then it was reported that she was knee deep in unethical activity, hanging onto shares central to the activities of her department while simultaneously favoring her family’s business in China.

Then there was Attorney General Barr who idly stood by as Trump declared that the FBI Director, who his Justice Department supervises, was wrong when he ordered all campaigns who had offers of foreign assistance to report them to his Agency. The unholy triumvirate of enablers in chief is made up by Congressman Jim Jordan who in the teeth of the swirling dysfunction claimed that the real issue was to investigate how the Hillary Clinton inspired  Russian investigation was initiated. Jordan is on a fairy tale mission to prevent others from being victimized as Trump has been.

There are all the other apologists who for practical purposes involve the whole Republican legislature. Lindsey Graham made a feeble attempt at criticism and Minority Leader of the House Kevin McCarthy disagreed with Donald Trump that all Congressmen accepted foreign aid as a matter of course. Mitt Romney who is the Grand Old Party’s last white hope to salvage their dignity and integrity denounced Trump’s illegality but offered no leadership to stop the rape of the Party of which he was once the elected leader.

OTHER DISASTERS IN THE WEEK THAT WAS

To underline the enormity of the Republican hypocrisy and moral decay it is worthwhile to enumerate the other Trump disasters in the week that was. While secretly many of the GOP may wish for impeachment they know this can’t happen while Trump’s base aka the Republican base remains at forty percent. This number cannot budge till they support public hearings or they show the forty percent whom they represent that Trump is unfit for office. Will someone in a leadership position please stand up!

What almost passed unnoticed is that The Office of the Special Counsel took the unprecedented action of recommending to the POTUS that he fire Kellyanne Conway, one of his chief WhiteHouse counsellors. She had violated The Hatch Act which forbade Government employees to participate in party political activities. Conway it was stated “repeatedly and knowingly” used her position, (and the megaphone that goes with it), to mix into party politics by attacking Democratic presidential candidates. Trump predictably responded by telling the Office of the Special Couple to go and jump in the lake. Adding in an interview to Fox News that Ms Conway, “was a terrific person and a tremendous spokesperson who is loyal” and was being unfairly singled out. Conway also thumbed her nose at being charged by facetiously commenting, “blah blah blah … let me know when the jail sentence starts”. 

While on the subject of Trump sycophants another blow was inflicted on the thin red line that forms a wall of lies around the President. The departure of Sarah Huckabee Sanders who spun anything that came her way was announced. The loss may not be felt that badly by the world at large because the Trump WhiteHouse had not held a Press Conference in months. Nevertheless it is one sycophant less in a world where they are becoming fewer and fewer. 

William Barr and Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross were in deep trouble for not providing the House Oversight Committee with documentation relating to why the Trump Administration was adding a question in the Census questionnaire which was allegedly designed to discourage  the participation of Latinos in the census count. This motive was apparently documented in Departmental emails.  Barr warned Chairman Cummings that if he issued contempt citations as a result of his refusal to handover the emails he would get the President to declare that the correspondence was covered by Executive Privilege. Cummimgs went ahead with the citations on Barr and Ross so Trump promptly obliged to protect his Consiglieri by designating the contents of the e mails privileged communications.  (This failure of Trump and his Administration to respond to Congressional oversight has become almost total which has led observers to believe that he is inviting impeachment). 

 Trump once again conducted foreign policy by tweet moving from China to Iran, having already declared victory in North Korea. He also claimed that his aggressive winner takes all approach with Mexico had worked. However a report alleged that all Mexico agreed too was future discussions. It was also argued that what had transpired at the meeting between Mexico and the USA had been agreed upon long ago. 

But back to Iran where Trump alleged that the Shia State was threatening world peace by attacking  Japanese tankers. The owner of the tankers insisted that Iran didn’t do it but this did not stop Secretary of State Pompeo supported by a collection of disjointed facts that it had to be Iran. Both nationally and internationally there were demands for real proof as they had all seen this movie before with Iraq and were not desirous of a sequel. While many legislators thought this was just another Trump distraction they were irritated enough to suggest that it was about time Congress limited Trump’s ability to dish out tariff threats and remind him that he couldn’t declare war without their permission. Just before going to Press Trump said the attacks were very minor while his Secretary of Defense claimed they were very major and was sending a 1000 troops to the Middle East.

Then a whole stack of internal Trump polling results were leaked to the Press indicating that Trump was being thrashed in the polls by Biden while being appreciably behind all other Democratic candidates that he was being compared too. Needless to say Trump fired his pollsters for presumably “fake polls”. While comparisons are odious the only other politician in history that had a similar attitude to unfavorable facts and figures was “you know who” in the bunker in Nazi Germany who admonished his advisors for plying him with factual reports of the state of the war, by retorting, “Don’t bring me defeatist statistics.” 

Another set back to business as usual was the fact that there are twenty - four Democratic Candidates vying for the media oxygen. Even Fox News, much to the chagrin of The Donald, is giving them the time of day. It has to be an ominous sign that Fox News echo chamber is beginning to hedge their bets - day time devoted to factual news and night time belonging to The Donald. 

 Trump’s greatest nemesis is mommy Nancy who is taking him and now Mitch McConnell to the cleaners. McConnell, who faithfully represents Trump, has been given the appellation of “The Grim Reaper”. So Pelosi at a Press Conference, with a visual behind her featuring  nine gravestones, detailed nine pieces of legislation that had passed the House which McConnell refused to bring to the floor of the Senate for a vote. The stones represent the death of bread and potato issue legislation which was at the heart of the historic 2018 midterm Democratic victory. McConnell killing legislation is nothing new as he has being doing this since the days of Obama. His most notorious killing, however, was that of Obama’s nomination for the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland. Nancy received wide press coverage for her graphic presentation. This coverage coupled with Trump’s ongoing whining about Pelosi -  “Nancy is a nasty woman” is detracting from whatever message he is trying to get across. He bemoans that she told her caucus that rather than be impeached he should be imprisoned for his crimes.All this has garnered media time which Trump feels he has the monopoly over. 

The Republicans are frantically working behind the scenes to persuade the distracted POTUS to apply his mind to the budget appropriations bill which has bipartisan support. He is loathe to agree because it doesn’t contain the billions for the wall Mexico was going to pay for. If the Bill isn’t passed then there will be another government shut down with negative implications for Republicans. Another reported major disagreement that is desperately being played out behind the scenes concerns Trump’s desire to make health care ,which he and the party have bombed on for almost a decade, a centerpiece of his campaign. The Republican legislators know how badly that plays in their backyards. 

All this and more in about a week yet there is no Republican luminary who is prepared to step up to the plate and lead the Party out of Egypt back into the Great Promised Land. They all should take an example from a Republican backbencher named Congressman Justin Amash.

IT IS ALL ABOUT LEADERSHIP

Congressman Justin Amash who is a part of the right wing caucus in the Republican Party and represents a profoundly Republican district in Michigan has called for Trump’s impeachment for obstruction of justice. He then convened a Town Hall Meeting for his constituents to explain his position as to why Trump was unfit to govern. The stunned Republican crowd questioned him and he steadfastly stuck to his guns as he explained the Trump perfidy. It all ended in a standing ovation for the Congressman. One of his bewildered constituents explained to the media that she only watches conservative news and believed Trump had been exonerated by the Mueller report. She like the packed meeting trusted their elected representative who is taking a principled stand. That is what leadership is all about.

Now plenty has happened since the Mueller report. Just glance above at what transpired just last week and yet no one in the Republican hierarchy is prepared tp lead and explain to the forty percent that this man is despoiling the name of the Republican Party and America. The obvious candidate to take on the task is Mitt Romney who surely in the autumn of his career didn’t stand for the Senate to be voting fodder for Trump and McConnell. What motivated him initially has had to have become that more pressing in the past two years. He was the politician who called Trump a “conman” exhorted the Republican Party to stop his nomination at all costs, and attempted to orchestrate a plan to effect this. He then backed an independent candidate to run against him in the 2016 election.

Where is Romney now that his party really needs him? Stand up and lead Mr Romney!

SOCIALISM, CAPITALISM AND TRUMPISM

The phony debate at the moment is about whether the future of America is going to be Capitalist or Socialist. Before getting involved in sorting that out the more critical choice is really between whatever and Trumpism. The latter has no consistent economic or political philosophy and his behavior is just sheer naked totalitarianism or rule by tweet only modified by his narcissism.  

The main reason that the 2020 Presidential battle is being framed in the form of a choice between economic systems, is that it has been labelled as such by none other than the Tweeter in Chief. The POTUS has claimed that the threat at the moment is that the Democrats want to turn America Socialist or as clarified by the philosopher - king, Trump, into Venezuela. There will be and more of this refrain as the polls indicated that the only Democratic candidate that the electorate would not favor against Trump would be a “Socialist”. The irony is that this erratic President has in his unfulfilled promises to the electorate veered towards policies that are more “socialistic”, especially on trade, than anyone else in the current Republican Establishment. 

THIS PHONY DEBATE BETWEEN THE “ISMS” IS NOT A JOKE

This would all be a joke but the POTUS’S faithful forty percent are not yet laughing. So Jay H. Ell will provide a ready primer for the faithful that are open to listening. 

Firstly the reason this is resonating at all is because several in America have not emotionally accepted that the Cold War is over. Russia has gone crony capitalist and so has China. In any case they both purported to be Communist but were, (and still are), merely repressive totalitarian states. Secondly Bernie Sanders said he was a socialist Democrat even though Robert Reich, the political analyst and former Clinton Labor Secretary and a big supporter of Bernie in the last election cycle told him that he wasn’t. (The Russian bots that supported Sanders over Hillary  in the last election played up his “socialist” credentials). Bernie since has become a millionaire cashing on what he condemned Hillary for cashing in on - political fame. Consequently he has been somewhat muted this cycle. 

But all this is besides the point.

 WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?

The point is that every Democrat, to a lesser or greater extent, is going to run on decreasing financial inequality, increasing the tax rate for the rich, expanding the number covered by one or other form of healthcare delivery system, infrastructure projects, student debt, and widening the safety net for the disadvantaged. The Democrats would like to continue where they left off with Obama in putting into place regulations that don’t allow a repeat of the financial crisis of 2008. In a nutshell Elizabeth Warren who has articulated it best wants to control the excesses of the market while sharing some of its successes.  

The point too is that Trump will not be running against the existing “socialist” policies in the present government welfare institutions such as Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and the like. He will ensure the VA that their healthcare system, which is more “socialist” than the British or Canadian systems, will remain intact. He will be once again promising higher wages for non existent manufacturing jobs, reopening the coal mines, better healthcare than Obamacare, infrastructure projects and other benefits that one might expect from a State’s Administration taking responsibility for redressing societal imbalances. All these false promises are arguably from the “socialist” playbook although he can truthfully maintain that he has really no intention to enact them as he has already proved.

No -one, not even Bernie, is going to promise to take away property from individuals, hand the means of production from companies to the State or centrally control all the economy and social activity, which is broadly the definition Socialism.  Mind you come to think of it the Republicans, led by Trump, are aiming to take control of women’s bodies and reproductive rights just like Communist China did before they became Capitalist. The Chinese have now an age and gender imbalance that is going to result in an even lower birthrate than they had in the past with a fraction of the population supporting the aging population.

 CAPITALISM

The principles of unbridled capitalism akin to socialism have been modified. In its rawest form Capitalism claimed that the market would sort everything out making no or very little allowances for the inequities inherent in society.  Friedrich Hayek was the most famous modern day advocate of capitalism believing that unhindered market forces with no intervention even in times of depression was the way to go. Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were Hayek’s greatest admirers. In fact had they read him comprehensively they would have noted that even he advocated some form of social umbrella in the form of universal health care coverage as well as unemployment insurance. 

It is fair to comment that Capitalism is superb at creating wealth. If any proof is needed as to its effectiveness of lifting billions from poverty look what has happened in China. Modern day Capitalism’s central problem is the distribution of the wealth that it has created.

It is also fair to argue that Capitalism, markets and trade have been responsible for incredible advances as well as venturing into projects that have served important social and economic benefits for individuals and society. 

What recently struck Jay H. Ell was the neglect of one of the mandatory obligations of society. tertiary education, which has become more and more scarce, competitive and expensive. The answer lies is the internet but Governments, Universities and Colleges have not led the way, in making training and valid degrees available on line to the masses that need them. There is an international for profit organization 2U that has taken on this essential project on a global scale. It is uphill - battling with the logistics, the isolationism and conservatism of the ivory tower just being a few of  the challenges. The company has made inroads on three continents including Africa where their headquarters with seven hundred employees is in Cape Town, South Africa. A number of prestigious universities have joined but there is a long long way to go. The problems are immense and include for example the setting up of electives and the training component where applicable. The Universities are totally responsible for standards and course content. In one instance in California a renowned institution made a real hash of the task and fell into financial trouble. 

There is something that sticks in the crawl about this being a for profit undertaking when it is obviously a societal obligation but that is the fact. The company is deeply in debt at the moment being run by a visionary who left other simpler ways of making money. There are very few who wouldn’t wish him success. 

TRUMPISM AS AN ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY.

Well what is Trump offering? His movement has been loosely labelled “populism”. Thus far he has not delivered on narrowing the wealth gap. Studies show that over forty percent of the population could not sustain a sudden expense of $400. Nor has he delivered health care as promised. His chaotic trade policies are if anything anti capitalist as are all his policies attacking companies whom he just happens to disagree with. He has delivered a massive tax cut which has largely benefited the rich and once again “trickle down” economics was just that - a trickle.. His ill thought out trade policies are threatening a far higher cost of living, Truth be told he has no coherent economic philosophy. He appears to be making it up as he goes along. Some have argued that his principle objective is simply to benefit himself. Then he has no coherent anything but that is a story for another day. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The issue is not about the “isms” on the economic front it is about equity. Then it is not only about economics it is about values, sharing, integrity, dignity, coexistence, tolerance and respect, all of which Trump is a bit short on. Hopefully the electorate will not fall into the trap of yet another nonexistent bogeyman that Trump might create. He is the world’s number one salesman who is highly inventive at persuading the customers what it is essential to purchase. Ironically many of his unfilled  promises are all based on the “socialist” principles he is railing against. He has more in common with the "socialist" Venezuelan leadership’s corruption than any other politician on the American scene. 

The apparent stupidity of Trump leads so many to underestimate his genius at the con game. Even those Republicans like Mitt Romney who called him a conman have been conned into buying the Trump narrative. By every precedent Trump will be dumped on the trash heap of history but there is long way to go and no certainty that all America won’t be dumped with him.