THE DEMOCRATS CHOICE FOR 2020

With twenty - three declared candidates the Democrats have much to choose from to oppose the current POTUS in the 2020 Presidential election. However the way the debate is being reported you would swear that every Democrats is in one big room, trying to obtain consensus as to who the candidate should be and what tactics are most preferable to counter The Donald. It is fair to say there is unanimity about the top priority and that is to find the runner who has the best chance to unseat the POTUS. That of course begs the question as too how to define the characteristics that the torch bearer of the Democratic Party, (DP), should possess? Also how this should be gauged? One fact is for certain the gigantic field of really highly talented presidential wannabes ensures maximum coverage of the whole host of issues that will define the answers to Trumpism - from income inequality and taxation to a woman’s right to choose and from health care and education access to climate change. 

Also who has the answers to the three Trump triumphant winning mantras, “Build the Wall” “I understand your pain as I am the blue collar billionaire”, and “Drain the Swamp”? Finally, who can articulate and connect most clearly within the decided upon messages that are central to a winning campaign, assess the political climate the election is taking place in, speak to the the key battlegrounds where the Presidency will be won or lost and how to involve all the constituencies of the Party.

CURRENT POLITICAL REALITY.

As matters stand Trump’s base of about forty percent remains firm. The cultish following is not budging. They include the Republican Party minus the intellectuals, pundits and most importantly the suburban white women. The priority will be to garner the Independents and swing votes of the rust belt that gave Trump The Presidency. The Democrats have to ensure that their minorities turn out - the African American vote fell a bit short with Hillary as well as the fact that the Latinos were not fully mobilized. As a bonus the Democrats hope that the investigations will discredit him enough forcing some of his base to jump ship, especially the blue collared members.

It will be crucial to recognize that Trump has two types of populist followers - the right wing authoritarian lovers and the neglected worker who has lost his well paid mining or manufacturing job.  The latter together with some middle-class citizens whose wages have been static for decades make up the justifiably aggrieved equality seeking populists. Some of those were brought back to the fold in the 2018 midterms which saw forty one constituencies move to the DP column. Notably some came from the key Mid West -Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More notably thirty - six of the forty one were won by Democratic moderates. However the focus cannot solely be directed to the Mid West white workers as the African American minority justifiably are not going to put up with being taken for granted. Nor are the motivated youth that also came out in 2018 going to tolerate the same old same old. 

The Democrats have the backing of the largest grass roots organizations since the Vietnam war protests. They include a non profit organization named Indivisible that has provided the know how to literally thousands of groups that they have spawned throughout the country. Their members protest, canvas congresspeople, knock on doors resulting in success after success including getting out the vote in the midterms. They carry enormous clout and more than counter the faded Tea Party operation. Their leadership has undertaken to obtain pledges from the Democratic candidates not to eat each other up and support who ever gets the nomination. 

This election takes place in a dark world which is becoming more and more sympathetic to authoritarianism, racial bias and in a climate where anti semitism and Islamophobia is on the rise. The nationalism as opposed to patriotism that this new deal has ushered in does not augur well for an openminded inclusive movement to triumph. Witness Brexit, Europe, Australia. Witness Trump. All this makes the American election that much more crucial as a turnaround here will switch off the green light that the supposed leader of the free world and arbiter of human rights was giving these right wing leaders. 

 Trump will not just fade away while the Democrats soldier on. He will smear, defy and persecute with his newly found highly intelligent consigliere William Barr helping him to thwart the rule of law and the Constitution. If Barr had been a Founding Father he would have opted for making America a dictatorship.

WHO IS THERE TO CHOOSE FROM?

Jay H. Ell is convinced that to beat Trump you have to make it simple. Trumpism which is characterized by a few themes needs to be met with a vision - a message for America. Bewailing Trump for what he is won’t cut it as Hillary proved. The candidate needs to carry the day on her/his own merits. Trump as Nancy Pelosi prophesied in the midterms will run against himself. Anyone who needs to be told that he is a racist, criminal and incompetent is someone who does not believe that he is racist, criminal and incompetent. 

There are two central themes that the candidates can be divided into where they put the emphasis of their message - those who just want a return to sanity, who claim that they are uniters and most importantly can win over the independents and the voters in the rust belt states versus the group that are fresh, exiting, deliver a new message, mobilize the demographics that have either not voted previously and the minorities that have been ignored. There is of course in this oversimplified analysis the right - left divide which overlaps both approaches.

Name recognition, especially in a field this large is a colossal advantage

The two seasoned warriors that top the list here are 78 year old Joe Biden, Obama’s Vice President and the runner up to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic run off and 77 year old Bernie Sanders. It is fair to say that they represent the left and right wings of the Democratic Party. At this stage of the game Biden is pulling away from Sanders who is steadily decreasing in the polls. He seems to have lost the mojo that made him such a force last time out.

The next group that have some name recognition are the Senate campaigners  where Elizabeth Warren heads the list. As matters stand, as Sanders loses favor, she could well become the standard bearer of the left wing of the Party. She is also a she which in some quarters is important as there is still a strong sentiment that the glass ceiling needs to be cracked. Then there is Kamala Harris who is as sharp as a tack. While left of Biden she is right of Warren. She has a big advantage as a person of color and representing California that has a ton of delegates and whose Primary is early on. To date however the decisiveness that has marked her TV demolishing of Republicans has not manifested on the campaign where on occasion she has been wishy washy. Cory Booker a highly capable and forceful Senator, having been a successful Mayor, is up there but has not gained enough traction to challenge the front runners. Senators Klobuchar, Gillibrand and Bennet complete the Senate list with the former the only one to barely register on the political Richter scale. One other that can be lumped with the Senators is a former member of the Obama cabinet, Latino Julian Castro. He was prominent as an educator and a former of San Antonio mayor. 

The only outsiders who have gained name recognition at this stage are the 37 year old openly gay Mayor in Mid West Republican Indiana, Pete Buttigieg and former Congressman Beto O’ Rourke who set the world on fire by nearly beating Ted Cruz in a Senate election in blood red Texas. To date  Buttigieg is the only entity to light up the stage, having successfully navigated a Fox Town Hall Meeting, volunteered for the armed forces and been successful in governing across the aisle.  

The Real Outsiders

The rest are going to have to battle to come out of the ruck. All have to take hope from the fact at this stage of the game in 2016 Trump had 2% of the Republican vote. What they may be forgetting was that Reality TV Star Trump had considerable name recognition at the time, having been working on his public image for decades.  There is New York Mayor de Blasio whose public persona appears to be no advantage and Congressman Eric Stallwell who is an articulate spokesperson that have some national recognition.

The fact many feel that the electoral outcome is going to depend on winning over the Democrats that defected to Trump has prompted a number of Democratic Governors who have won in Republican States to throw their hats into the ring. These include Steve Bullock of Montana and John Hickenlooper of Colorado. Governor Jay Inslee of Washington has made climate control the centerpiece of his thrust.

There a swarm of lesser known Congressmen who also believe their ability to work across the aisle or have other distinctive features that may catapult them into success - John Delaney of Maryland, Tulles Gabbard of Hawaii, Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, and Tim Ryan of Ohio. Completing the slate of hopefuls are Miramar Wessam of Jamaican origin whose message is gun control, Oprah Winfrey’s spiritual counsellor Marianne Williamson and businessman Andrew Young.

THE KNITTY GRITTY

It is hard to look beyond five or six candidates as there is a limited amount of media oxygen to allow the others to establish themselves. There could be some devastating breakthroughs in the debates but it is a monumental mountain to climb for most. Biden has to be the one to beat. He represents stability, has the Obama imprimatur, middle of the road, has connected with the worker, has the trust of the largest minority group - African American - and can take on Trump. His weaknesses are his age, not the greatest record as a MeToo protagonist and the fact that he will not excite the millennial and party progressives. 

The recent Gallup poll, for what it is worth, showed that that there were no real objections to a woman, gay or minority candidate. Younger candidates were preferable to older candidates. The ideal age was round about fifty and there was a distinct drop in support for those over seventy. The strongest bias was against anyone who labelled themselves Socialist - only 47% accepting this political moniker. With regard to religious persuasion a Jewish president was most desirable at a 93% acceptance rate with the Muslims coming in at 66%. A candidate with no religion was least favored so Bernie better start believing again! It would be wisest to take the poll with a pinch of salt as the current poll numbers don’t jive with these labels.

Biden’s philosophical opponents and closest rivals are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. One of them has to drop out to really challenge the seasoned campaigner. Jay H. Ell thinks it has to be Bernie who has lost some credibility with his delayed production of taxes, his millionaire status and the fact that he still sees it all as a class struggle and has consequently not won the confidence of the African American minority who perceive that their unique discriminatory is ignored by this approach. Warren for her part has really mastered economic policy and has extensive plans for bridging the inequality gap. Ironically she might have better been placed to take on Hillary last time out but nevertheless will be in the final shake up. As for her weaknesses she can be abrasive and has made the mistake of attacking Biden this early on This line of attack in a constituency that has as it’s top priority beating Trump may not go down so well, especially if Indivisible takes its mandate seriously to hold the candidates’ feet to the fire. 

Kamilla Harris and to a lesser extent Corey Booker could get within striking distance. The former practically fills the profile of what characteristics the Democratic candidate should represent. She is of color, the right age and gender, just left of center, has prosecutorial experience that just might resonate with the Mid West and is really smart on her feet. The debates may allow her to blossom. Corey Booker has governing experience and is comfortably to the left of Kamilla but is very emotional. Sometimes his “angry young man” demeanor can appear contrived. He too is African American. 

The real dark horse in the race in 37 year old South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who has emerged from nowhere to be in the top five in the polls. He is articulate comes across as trustworthy and authentic. He is gay and happily married with a partner who has also resonated on the trail. He is in the middle politically and has successfully navigated the mid west political divide. Also his message much like front runner Biden is on vision and values. His problem as with all the other whites outside of Biden is to gain the confidence the African American minority. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

if the candidates listen to Nancy and Indivisible, that is to leave Trump to run against himself and not smear each other, the DP has a unique opportunity to put on display a vision and detailed policies as an alternative to the chaotic and unAmerican Presidency. If Trump implodes with all the investigations, which he is on path to do, that will be a big plus. In addition if he comes unstuck with his ill thought out trade policies and outlandish behavior he may create a backlash and mobilization that would put states, other than those of the Mid West that swung his way in 2016 in play. These include Iowa, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and even Texas. But to do that some of the forty percent that have drunk the cool aid would have to shift. If his rallies are anything to go by don’t hold your breath. In addition he is as likely to strike a deal with Kim Jun Un as to go to war with Iran to change the narrative dramatically should he feel under siege. He knows no rules and that makes him a dangerous and unpredictable opponent.