THE DEMOCRATS CHOICE FOR 2020

With twenty - three declared candidates the Democrats have much to choose from to oppose the current POTUS in the 2020 Presidential election. However the way the debate is being reported you would swear that every Democrats is in one big room, trying to obtain consensus as to who the candidate should be and what tactics are most preferable to counter The Donald. It is fair to say there is unanimity about the top priority and that is to find the runner who has the best chance to unseat the POTUS. That of course begs the question as too how to define the characteristics that the torch bearer of the Democratic Party, (DP), should possess? Also how this should be gauged? One fact is for certain the gigantic field of really highly talented presidential wannabes ensures maximum coverage of the whole host of issues that will define the answers to Trumpism - from income inequality and taxation to a woman’s right to choose and from health care and education access to climate change. 

Also who has the answers to the three Trump triumphant winning mantras, “Build the Wall” “I understand your pain as I am the blue collar billionaire”, and “Drain the Swamp”? Finally, who can articulate and connect most clearly within the decided upon messages that are central to a winning campaign, assess the political climate the election is taking place in, speak to the the key battlegrounds where the Presidency will be won or lost and how to involve all the constituencies of the Party.

CURRENT POLITICAL REALITY.

As matters stand Trump’s base of about forty percent remains firm. The cultish following is not budging. They include the Republican Party minus the intellectuals, pundits and most importantly the suburban white women. The priority will be to garner the Independents and swing votes of the rust belt that gave Trump The Presidency. The Democrats have to ensure that their minorities turn out - the African American vote fell a bit short with Hillary as well as the fact that the Latinos were not fully mobilized. As a bonus the Democrats hope that the investigations will discredit him enough forcing some of his base to jump ship, especially the blue collared members.

It will be crucial to recognize that Trump has two types of populist followers - the right wing authoritarian lovers and the neglected worker who has lost his well paid mining or manufacturing job.  The latter together with some middle-class citizens whose wages have been static for decades make up the justifiably aggrieved equality seeking populists. Some of those were brought back to the fold in the 2018 midterms which saw forty one constituencies move to the DP column. Notably some came from the key Mid West -Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More notably thirty - six of the forty one were won by Democratic moderates. However the focus cannot solely be directed to the Mid West white workers as the African American minority justifiably are not going to put up with being taken for granted. Nor are the motivated youth that also came out in 2018 going to tolerate the same old same old. 

The Democrats have the backing of the largest grass roots organizations since the Vietnam war protests. They include a non profit organization named Indivisible that has provided the know how to literally thousands of groups that they have spawned throughout the country. Their members protest, canvas congresspeople, knock on doors resulting in success after success including getting out the vote in the midterms. They carry enormous clout and more than counter the faded Tea Party operation. Their leadership has undertaken to obtain pledges from the Democratic candidates not to eat each other up and support who ever gets the nomination. 

This election takes place in a dark world which is becoming more and more sympathetic to authoritarianism, racial bias and in a climate where anti semitism and Islamophobia is on the rise. The nationalism as opposed to patriotism that this new deal has ushered in does not augur well for an openminded inclusive movement to triumph. Witness Brexit, Europe, Australia. Witness Trump. All this makes the American election that much more crucial as a turnaround here will switch off the green light that the supposed leader of the free world and arbiter of human rights was giving these right wing leaders. 

 Trump will not just fade away while the Democrats soldier on. He will smear, defy and persecute with his newly found highly intelligent consigliere William Barr helping him to thwart the rule of law and the Constitution. If Barr had been a Founding Father he would have opted for making America a dictatorship.

WHO IS THERE TO CHOOSE FROM?

Jay H. Ell is convinced that to beat Trump you have to make it simple. Trumpism which is characterized by a few themes needs to be met with a vision - a message for America. Bewailing Trump for what he is won’t cut it as Hillary proved. The candidate needs to carry the day on her/his own merits. Trump as Nancy Pelosi prophesied in the midterms will run against himself. Anyone who needs to be told that he is a racist, criminal and incompetent is someone who does not believe that he is racist, criminal and incompetent. 

There are two central themes that the candidates can be divided into where they put the emphasis of their message - those who just want a return to sanity, who claim that they are uniters and most importantly can win over the independents and the voters in the rust belt states versus the group that are fresh, exiting, deliver a new message, mobilize the demographics that have either not voted previously and the minorities that have been ignored. There is of course in this oversimplified analysis the right - left divide which overlaps both approaches.

Name recognition, especially in a field this large is a colossal advantage

The two seasoned warriors that top the list here are 78 year old Joe Biden, Obama’s Vice President and the runner up to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic run off and 77 year old Bernie Sanders. It is fair to say that they represent the left and right wings of the Democratic Party. At this stage of the game Biden is pulling away from Sanders who is steadily decreasing in the polls. He seems to have lost the mojo that made him such a force last time out.

The next group that have some name recognition are the Senate campaigners  where Elizabeth Warren heads the list. As matters stand, as Sanders loses favor, she could well become the standard bearer of the left wing of the Party. She is also a she which in some quarters is important as there is still a strong sentiment that the glass ceiling needs to be cracked. Then there is Kamala Harris who is as sharp as a tack. While left of Biden she is right of Warren. She has a big advantage as a person of color and representing California that has a ton of delegates and whose Primary is early on. To date however the decisiveness that has marked her TV demolishing of Republicans has not manifested on the campaign where on occasion she has been wishy washy. Cory Booker a highly capable and forceful Senator, having been a successful Mayor, is up there but has not gained enough traction to challenge the front runners. Senators Klobuchar, Gillibrand and Bennet complete the Senate list with the former the only one to barely register on the political Richter scale. One other that can be lumped with the Senators is a former member of the Obama cabinet, Latino Julian Castro. He was prominent as an educator and a former of San Antonio mayor. 

The only outsiders who have gained name recognition at this stage are the 37 year old openly gay Mayor in Mid West Republican Indiana, Pete Buttigieg and former Congressman Beto O’ Rourke who set the world on fire by nearly beating Ted Cruz in a Senate election in blood red Texas. To date  Buttigieg is the only entity to light up the stage, having successfully navigated a Fox Town Hall Meeting, volunteered for the armed forces and been successful in governing across the aisle.  

The Real Outsiders

The rest are going to have to battle to come out of the ruck. All have to take hope from the fact at this stage of the game in 2016 Trump had 2% of the Republican vote. What they may be forgetting was that Reality TV Star Trump had considerable name recognition at the time, having been working on his public image for decades.  There is New York Mayor de Blasio whose public persona appears to be no advantage and Congressman Eric Stallwell who is an articulate spokesperson that have some national recognition.

The fact many feel that the electoral outcome is going to depend on winning over the Democrats that defected to Trump has prompted a number of Democratic Governors who have won in Republican States to throw their hats into the ring. These include Steve Bullock of Montana and John Hickenlooper of Colorado. Governor Jay Inslee of Washington has made climate control the centerpiece of his thrust.

There a swarm of lesser known Congressmen who also believe their ability to work across the aisle or have other distinctive features that may catapult them into success - John Delaney of Maryland, Tulles Gabbard of Hawaii, Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, and Tim Ryan of Ohio. Completing the slate of hopefuls are Miramar Wessam of Jamaican origin whose message is gun control, Oprah Winfrey’s spiritual counsellor Marianne Williamson and businessman Andrew Young.

THE KNITTY GRITTY

It is hard to look beyond five or six candidates as there is a limited amount of media oxygen to allow the others to establish themselves. There could be some devastating breakthroughs in the debates but it is a monumental mountain to climb for most. Biden has to be the one to beat. He represents stability, has the Obama imprimatur, middle of the road, has connected with the worker, has the trust of the largest minority group - African American - and can take on Trump. His weaknesses are his age, not the greatest record as a MeToo protagonist and the fact that he will not excite the millennial and party progressives. 

The recent Gallup poll, for what it is worth, showed that that there were no real objections to a woman, gay or minority candidate. Younger candidates were preferable to older candidates. The ideal age was round about fifty and there was a distinct drop in support for those over seventy. The strongest bias was against anyone who labelled themselves Socialist - only 47% accepting this political moniker. With regard to religious persuasion a Jewish president was most desirable at a 93% acceptance rate with the Muslims coming in at 66%. A candidate with no religion was least favored so Bernie better start believing again! It would be wisest to take the poll with a pinch of salt as the current poll numbers don’t jive with these labels.

Biden’s philosophical opponents and closest rivals are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. One of them has to drop out to really challenge the seasoned campaigner. Jay H. Ell thinks it has to be Bernie who has lost some credibility with his delayed production of taxes, his millionaire status and the fact that he still sees it all as a class struggle and has consequently not won the confidence of the African American minority who perceive that their unique discriminatory is ignored by this approach. Warren for her part has really mastered economic policy and has extensive plans for bridging the inequality gap. Ironically she might have better been placed to take on Hillary last time out but nevertheless will be in the final shake up. As for her weaknesses she can be abrasive and has made the mistake of attacking Biden this early on This line of attack in a constituency that has as it’s top priority beating Trump may not go down so well, especially if Indivisible takes its mandate seriously to hold the candidates’ feet to the fire. 

Kamilla Harris and to a lesser extent Corey Booker could get within striking distance. The former practically fills the profile of what characteristics the Democratic candidate should represent. She is of color, the right age and gender, just left of center, has prosecutorial experience that just might resonate with the Mid West and is really smart on her feet. The debates may allow her to blossom. Corey Booker has governing experience and is comfortably to the left of Kamilla but is very emotional. Sometimes his “angry young man” demeanor can appear contrived. He too is African American. 

The real dark horse in the race in 37 year old South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who has emerged from nowhere to be in the top five in the polls. He is articulate comes across as trustworthy and authentic. He is gay and happily married with a partner who has also resonated on the trail. He is in the middle politically and has successfully navigated the mid west political divide. Also his message much like front runner Biden is on vision and values. His problem as with all the other whites outside of Biden is to gain the confidence the African American minority. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

if the candidates listen to Nancy and Indivisible, that is to leave Trump to run against himself and not smear each other, the DP has a unique opportunity to put on display a vision and detailed policies as an alternative to the chaotic and unAmerican Presidency. If Trump implodes with all the investigations, which he is on path to do, that will be a big plus. In addition if he comes unstuck with his ill thought out trade policies and outlandish behavior he may create a backlash and mobilization that would put states, other than those of the Mid West that swung his way in 2016 in play. These include Iowa, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and even Texas. But to do that some of the forty percent that have drunk the cool aid would have to shift. If his rallies are anything to go by don’t hold your breath. In addition he is as likely to strike a deal with Kim Jun Un as to go to war with Iran to change the narrative dramatically should he feel under siege. He knows no rules and that makes him a dangerous and unpredictable opponent.

TRUMP, FLYNN, RUSSIA AND TREASON.

As a result of Federal Court developments last week Michael Flynn, former National Security Advisor to Donald Trump joins Mueller and McGahn as prime targets for Congressional testimony. The former National Security Advisor has rapidly moved very high up in the ratings as an existential threat to Trump.  Flynn’s court appearance revived what has to be lingering in everybody’s mind, namely, what happened to the counter - intelligence investigation that was instituted into Trump very early on his Presidency as to whether he could be influenced by the Russians. Mueller did not report on it and handed it over to the appropriate agencies. The Democratic Leader of the House Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff has demanded, that as constitutionally mandated, he receive that report. That is where Trump’s involvement or non involvement with Russia will really be reflected. Flynn’s court appearance resurrected what this hullabaloo is all about.

Trump has called those that investigated him treasonous. Judge Emmet Sullivan, privy to all that was redacted, characterized what Flynn did as treason and treason just happens to be one of the investigative domains of counter intelligence, which probed President Trump. Trump, for his part, has just continued blocking anyone and any documentation that Congress requests, out of the blue threatening war with Iran and carrying on with trade wars. 

THE WEEK THAT WAS - NOT A GOOD ONE FOR TRUMP

In the week that was the pressure was ratcheted up against Trump and his consigliere William Barr. Riveting details were revealed by Special Counsel Mueller as to what Michael Flynn, Trump’s National Security Advisor had revealed to him with regard to the Russian connection. The Federal Judge, Emmet Sullivan, overseeing the Flynn sentencing ordered the prosecutors to reveal every word Barr had redacted relating to Flynn in the Mueller report. Even more significantly he demanded that the entire transcript of the taped Flynn conversation with Russian Ambassador Kislyak be posted on his website by May 31st. 

Flynn a confidant of Trump throughout his campaign has to know plenty about the black box that represents what transpires between Trump and Putin. Also plenty of the obstruction of justice case against Trump relates to the latter’s desire to keep the world from learning what Flynn knew. In fact as it is all being pieced together Trump trying to keep Flynn out of legal jeopardy is where it all started……

To add exponentially to the POTUS'S woes, Federal Judge Metha fast tracked the court proceedings where Trump had challenged a Congress subpoena demanding his financial records. Judge Metha expressed incredulity at the Trump Counsel’s arguments that the President didn’t have a constitutional obligation to respond to Congressional oversight. Trump’s Counsel pleaded ignorance to the Constitution when asked by the Judge as to whether it was the Trump view that the Watergate and the Clinton investigations were beyond the authority of Congress. Judge Metha stated that he would rule soon. 

This fast track approach jives with the Federal Court System’s approach to the Nixon challenge which might well mean that Trump’s defiance will be decided prior to the 2020 election. Retired Supreme Court Justice Stevens indicated that the Supreme Court would enforce the subpoenas issued by the House of Representatives and who would know better the thinking of at least seven of the nine Judges on that Court than he? 

The next shoe to fall was the Democratic Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee that announced that Cohen’s behind closed doors testimony would be released to the world.

The final cherry on the top for the embattled Trump was the first call by a Republican Congressman, Representative Amish from Michigan, to impeach him. Amish also attacked Consiglieri Barr for misleading the public as to the contents of the Mueller probe.  

AMERICA KNOWS NOTHING OF THE TRUMP - PUTIN DEALINGS.

If one just stops for a second to take in the fact that Trump and Putin have made contact over 20 times since his election and no - one has a clue as to what the content of their discussions really were. In addition The Mueller report reflected a 140 contacts between Trump’s campaign and Russian operatives. Coupling this with incontrovertible evidence that Russia assisted the Trump campaign in a significant way makes what Trump and Putin natter about all that more important to American national security. 

This is all magnified by the open excitement that the Russian help was welcomed, asked for and encouraged by Trump. The fact that there are no details of the President of America’s extensive relationship with a country that is generally regarded as an adversary, is objectively mind boggling. It becomes even more fishy when Trump never includes any American official in his one on one contacts. He once even tore up an American interpreter’s notes.

It still produces a sense of shock that Trump publicly took Putin’s word over his security establishment that Russia were not involved in the interference of the 2016 Presidential election. Mueller has lengthy indictments of Russian front companies and actual Kremlin officials that assisted the Trump victory. But Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell say “case closed”. They are not going to relitigate the Mueller investigation. One wonders what it is going to take…..

FLYNN REVISITED - A REALLY IMPORTANT GUY

Just to jostle everyone’s brain soaked memories of the genesis of the Flynn saga Jay H. Ell will sling you a recap. Michael Flynn was a Lieutenant General in the United States Army and was Director of The Defense Intelligence Agency for a brief term till President Obama in 2014 fired him forcing him into retirement. He then joined the private sector and it was only when he became one of the many in theTrump camp with ties to Russia that pictures and video surfaced of him at an event in Russia sitting next to Putin. Flynn had been invited to give a talk at a  very high profile “Russia Today” symposium for which he was paid $45,000. The question is why in G-d’s name him?

He really was prominent on the Trump campaign bandwagon being chosen again and again to introduce him at the Nuremberg style rallies. There was nothing he loved more than leading the faithful in the “lock her up” refrain. He famously claimed that had he done what Hillary had done he would have been locked up long ago.

Now what really makes one take a second peek at Flynn resides in the fact that he was one of only two issues President Obama warned Trump about. The first was the danger North Korea proposed and the second was not to appoint Flynn to his cabinet. The fact that Trump ignored POTUS 44 on both scores is not what Jay H. Ell is reflecting on but why in the grand scheme of things Flynn was coupled with the nuclear threat North Korea projects. Also if Obama wanted to send a message about what he knew of the intelligence of Russia’s interference why choose Flynn as the vehicle unless he was central to the Trump “collusion”.

The next clear messages the workers’ President received about Flynn being compromised and a risk to American security was from the then Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates. She has since testified ad nauseam as to what an existential threat Michael Flynn represented to national security as he could be blackmailed by the Russians. Trump ignored Yates and the intrepid General is photographed in the WhiteHouse Oval Office on the phone with el Presidente for another 8 days. As his involvement with the Russians was leaked by the media Trump was finally forced to fire him, the ostensible reason being that he lied to Vice President Pence about his contacts with “our noble allies - the Russians”.

The same day that Flynn left the WhiteHouse Trump cleared the room and asked FBI Director Comey to stay behind. According to Comey’s contemporaneous notes the President of the United States of America said as follows, “I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy”.

As the investigation into Flynn proceeded Trump had a joint legal agreement to share information but Mueller put the screws on Flynn threatening to charge his son as well. So Flynn eventually copped a plea to a minimal charge about lying about the conversation he had had with the Russian Ambassador Kislyak following Trump’s victory. 

What is known about that crucial call gives a tantalizing glimpse of Trump’s relationship with Putin. Mueller opens the box a fraction by reporting a conversation between Flynn and his Deputy K. T. McFarland. It is evident that Flynn successfully conveyed a message to the Russians not to respond to Obama’s sanctions for their interference in the elections. The conversation between the two is believed to have motivated Russia’s muted response to the sanctions allowing Trump to speak positively about those who had helped him gain office. There are other details that are available as to the far reaching confab Flynn had with Kislyak but one wonders what Flynn offered as a quid pro quo?

Only Flynn can reveal who detailed him on the agenda and offers to with Kislyak and what the Trump position was to be towards Russia. All this testifying to the centrality of Flynn’s evidence in that “Russia thing”.

The final pointer as to the the significance of Flynn to the Special Prosecutor relates to the lengths he has gone to provide positive character witness evidence to the Court. The Mueller team have gone to bat for him, in a manner rarely seen, to keep him out of jail . (Eat your heart out Cohen). The Mueller prosecutors have provided endless documentation and instances of his co operation and its central importance to their investigation and the indictments arising from it. In their endeavor they have met fierce resistance from Federal Judge Sullivan who is disgusted at Flynn’s “treason” - a term rarely if ever used by a Federal Judge. It remains to see what Sullivan finally decides. In insisting on all of the Flynn misdeeds to be unredacted and demanding that the transcript of the Flynn/Kislyak indaba be publicized, he, at least wants the world to know some of what Flynn and the Administration was up to. 

The strong positions taken by the court and Special Counsel are reflective of witness Flynn’s role in the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election in favor of Donald J. Trump. So he is seen to incredibly important and central from both world views. 

BACKLASH TO FLYNN’S PLEA DEAL 

The fact that Flynn decided to cooperate resulted in massive pressure being put on him from the Trump Administration as well as Congressional Republicans to recant. He reported these efforts at witness tampering to the Special Counsel. Most noteworthy was a voicemail from Trump’s Counsel which on its face is witness tampering and obstruction of justice. Mueller decided not to subpoena the President’s lawyer at the time as he feared it might invoke attorney - client privilege. Mueller once again took the conservative route as there is no privilege where there is criminal intent. The President lawyer’s message in part stated the following, “…..if there is information implicating the President then we have got a national security issue…Just for the sake of protecting all our interests if we can… Remember what we have said about the President and his feelings toward Flynn and that still remains…” .

AT THE END OF THE DAY

This is, as predicted, getting ugly pretty fast. By the by Fox came out with a poll that showed Biden ahead of Trump by 11 points. The latter getting 38% support. The fact that his numbers are once again on the skids, dropping below 40%, is also born out in his approval ratings.

Trump will do all in his power to survive. He will fight Congress in their attempted oversight to the end. He has no rules. The question is how much longer can the spineless Republican legislators hang in. Their response thus far is to join in with Trump and say that the Mueller report is concluded and the real issue is what traitors started this investigation in the first place.

As the days go by it has to be getting harder and harder for Nancy Pelosi to avoid starting an impeachment probe. The turning point would be if the Supreme Court decided that only in an impeachment does Trump have to respond to subpoenas.

This week might see McGahn give evidence and or all hell break loose if Trump hinders it. There is a concept labelled “inherent contempt” which allows Congress to lock up those who defy subpoenas and for other egregious behavior. Barr has to be getting perilously close to crossing that line and even joked about the possibility. The Democratic Establishment would have even less compunction in incarcerating McGahn.

Also arising out of last weeks court proceedings Chairman Adam Schiff will become more and more strident in demanding the counter intelligent report on Trump.

If and when the Flynn tapes see the light of day and they reveal what everyone suspects, that Trump is hand in glove with Putin, the POTUS’S cry from “no collusion” might have to change to “no treason”.

Mr.TRUMP - LOCK WHO UP?

Little did Donald Trump know that his campaign chant, hollered out in chorus, rally after rally “Lock her up”, would be profoundly prophetic in relation to Team Trump. Several of his cabal have been “locked up” while others await trial and/or sentencing. Trump, his son and his current cohorts including William Barr, Donald McGahn and Mnuchin are at risk of legal sanctions even though they are acting as if they are omnipotent. Anyone remotely connected to Trump would be well served by to delve into the Watergate precedent where a whole slew of close to fifty Nixon acolytes were indicted. 

Besides the sideshow of wanting, again, to launch yet another investigation into “Crooked Hillary - Lock her up”, The POTUS and his Administration are obstructing the lawful oversight function of the House of Representatives. This is being effected by refusing point blank to provide documentation to the Committees as well as instructing anyone associated with his Administration not to give evidence. The POTUS has extended his authority even more instructing his banks and his auditors to ignore Congress’s subpoenas.  

Trump, his family and his Administration are relying on the Supreme Court to back them up in their defiance of Congress. The POTUS’S argument that he is akin to Louis XIV, an argument that Richard Nixon tried and which spectacularly failed. He is all but said his Supreme Court will rule in his favor.

They would all be advised to look up what happened to the Nixon team. Willian Barr, for example, has to be mindful, that the Richard Nixon’s Attorney General was “locked up” as well. Donald Trump, whose knowledge of American History is demonstrably limited, must nevertheless have come across the fact that Richard Nixon escaped being “locked up” because Gerald Ford pardoned him. Eight hundred prosecutors have already agreed that only the fact that he is currently President protected him from being charged with egregious violations of obstruction of justice. So far there has not been a counter petition from prosecutors backing up William Barr’s rush to judgement that the POTUS was not guilty of that charge. The POTUS has a string of nearly 20 litigations pending which will descend upon him on leaving office as well as civil litigation which the courts have proceeded with while he is still the incumbent.   

TRUMP’S TEAM MEMBERS WHO HAVE ALREADY BEEN “LOCKED UP” AND/OR  AWAITING SENTENCING.

So far Paul Manafort his Campaign Manager is serving a seven and a half year sentence with several court challenges ahead. Trump’s personal attorney, Michael Cohen, just started a three year term for lying to Congress and breaking campaign laws. Cohen has alleged and the prosecutors support him that he committed these crimes at the behest of the President Donald J. Trump. The Trump National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, has pled guilty to “making false, fictitious and fraudulent” statements to the FBI in connection with his contacts with Russian operatives. At his sentencing hearing the Judge refused point black not to send him to prison asking the prosecutors why he hadn’t been charged with treason. 

Rick Gates, Trump’s assistant campaign manager, is still cooperating with prosecutors and is yet to be sentenced for the plea he copped for making false statements and conspiracy against the United States of America. Roger Stone, Trump’s long time advisor, has been charged with seven counts of obstruction, witness tampering and lying to Congress. He was being investigated for far more serious crimes which miraculously were halted. The irresistible belief is that these investigations as was the Mueller probe were stopped by Trump’s appointee to head the Justice Department, William Barr. 

Then there are twelve other sealed indictments that Mueller has farmed out to other prosecutors that may well result in those who screamed “lock her up” to be at risk themselves .

Michael Cohen is wailing at being selectively “victimized.

Michael Cohen who like Michael Flynn failed to convince the Court that spilling the beans was enough to keep him from being “locked up” has wailed, with justification, that those who have done exactly what he did are getting off scot free, starting with Trump himself. The prosecutors referred to the POTUS in Cohen’s guilty to plea as “Individual 1”, aka The President, alleging he was a co conspirator in the cover up of the crime of subverting campaign finance laws. Trump is sitting pretty in the WhiteHouse. 

William Barr, who spun and is still spinning the Mueller probe  is guilty of  outright lying to Congress, the other reason that Cohen is going to jail. Barr responded, under oath, to a question in Congress whether Mueller’s team had contacted him in relation to the characterization of his report. Barr denied that he had when in fact he had received two letters from the Special Counsel who was furious at the Barr cover up. The missives to Barr stated that he had failed to capture the context, nature and substance of the probe and failed to make the probe’s executive summaries public.

Then just one more notable example of lying to Congress that has to stick in Cohen’s craw. The Republican Senate Intelligence Committee want to hear from Donald Trump Jnr. who allegedly lied to them under oath about the notorious Trump Tower meeting which the first son had convened with Russian operatives to “get dirt on Hillary Clinton”. Apparently included under purview in his suspect testimony are lies about the Moscow Trump Tower Project. The Donald Jnr. was additionally involved in his daddy’s and his attorney’s cover up in the Stormy Daniels’s affair as he signed the checks. While Cohen is languishing in jail for the crime the First Son is sounding off against the Senate Committee.

If the Nixon precedent is anything to go these three should be “locked up”. All the other witnesses including past members of Trump’s revolving door Administration and Campaign should take note of their potential legal liability. This includes Rudi Giuliani, Trump’s TV lawyer, who openly wants to conspire with the Ukrainians as to how to intervene on Trump’s behalf in the 2020 Presidential election.

HOW THE WATERGATE AND RUSSIAGATE INDICTMENTS STACK UP 

There were 40 US Government officials, in the Watergate scandal, that were indicted some of whom were jailed. In addition NIxon’s whole campaign committee, (Committee to Re Elect the President - CREEP), except one, were indicted. So far there have been 37 indictments in Russiagate but at least 20 of those are Russians. At least Nixon had no Russians campaigning for him. Nevertheless everyone associated with Trump is in legal jeopardy particularly if they cover up or have covered up for the Boss or subsequently lie under oath.

 Bear in mind that the majority of the Nixon indictments and convictions were as a result of Congressional Investigations which haven’t even begun yet. This was where the real action was as the Congressional testimony was riveting ultimately swinging public opinion against the 37th POTUS. If the response to Cohen's testomony is anything to go by Trump has to be really worried. Two out of three Americans thought Cohen was telling the truth while only one of three believed his boss.

The Nixon "locked up" crowd included a Secretary of Justice, John Mitchell, so William Barr take note as should Steve Mnuchin. The Watergate Chief of Staff HR Haldeman as well as the Chief Advisor John Ehrlichman both did time in a Federal Penitentiary. The whole POTUS brigade of former Chiefs of Staff as well as advisors such as Steve Bannon beware. Bannon is already being sort after as a witness to Democratic Congressional hearings. There are hints of Bannon’s alleged earlier perjury being bandied about. Nixon WhiteHouse Counsel John Dean went to jail for four months so Don McGahn beware of ignoring subpoenas and document requests. Nixon Special Counsel, Charles Colson, was convicted and the closest 45th POTUS counterpart to him is TV lawyer Rudi Giuliani.  Jeb Magruder, WhiteHouse communications director also was jailed - it might be fascinating to hear what KellyAnne Conway or Sean Spicer would have to tell a congressional committee.  

Then there were those involved in the Watergate burglary and or on Nixon's CREEP. They included James McCord, Howard Hunt, Gordon Liddy and Donald Segretti - all served time. There were innumerable witnesses to the Mueller grand jury who might want to defy the Congressional Committee subpoenas. Beware. 

THE TRUMP STRATEGY - BUT WILL THE SUPREME COURT PLAY BALL?

So Trump knows where the Congressional investigations could lead to. Even he knows that It was those that turned public opinion against Nixon, Nixon started with the overwhelming majority of the public behind him. He had been reelected in the middle of the scandal, winning 49 of the 50 States, while Trump is desperately hanging on to his 40 percent base. 

POTUSES 37 and 45 share the same defense ignore subpoenas. Number 45 has gone one gigantic step further instructing anybody and everybody not to respond to subpoenas. He is convinced that at the end of the day the conservative Supreme Court, two of whom are his handpicked choices, will reverse the unanimous Nixon decision that forced the then President of the United States to respond to subpoenas. 

Chief Justice Roberts has already publicly admonished the POTUS  for criticizing judges and alleging that their decisions were politically motivated depending on whether they were appointed by a Republican or a Democrat President. More significantly recently retired Supreme Court Justice, John Paul Stevens who was a Republican appointee, has opined, on the modern political landscape, “I think there are things we should be concerned about…. The President is exercising powers that don’t really belong to him. I mean, he has to comply with subpoenas and things like that”. 

Stevens when pressed as to how the Supreme Court might rule in a matter between Trump and the House of Representatives, opined, “I wouldn’t want to predict that anyone is going to take the incorrect view. But certainly the correct view is pretty clear”. 

Trump’s other hope is that the court cases devolving around the subpoena question will take years to resolve. Well the precedent in the Nixon case was that the courts put the dispute on fast track, reaching their unanimous decision in months. Already In a case relating to Trump trying to prevent financial documents from receiving legislative purview the Judge has put her decision as to whether Congress’s subpoena must be obeyed on expedited track.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Hang onto your seats this is all going to turn ugly very fast and the outcome is not going to be that Hillary Clinton is going to be “locked up”.

There are now 800 prosectors that have signed onto the letter that Trump should be criminally charged with obstruction of justice and not one that has that has publicly sent a letter agreeing with Barr. 

Even without hearings and Democratic Speaker Pelosi nixing any possibility of impeachment now, the latest polls indicate increasing public acceptance for the process. The numbers have moved from the 30 percent range to the mid 40’s.