Donald J. Trump has no coherent foreign policy. What makes matters worse, like with everything else, he changes his mind within a tweet beat. He also, in private, gives foreign leaders another take. What further exacerbates the chaos is that his actions aren’t necessarily in sync with what he opines. Finally, the waters are further muddied by his administration running around “clarifying” what the policy really is. Nobody takes much notice of this behavior because it is par for the course and foreign policy is not on the list of priorities for voters. International relations however is the one area that upsets the Republican legislators no end and periodically they defy their leader with a vengeance.
To sum up the POTUS’S simplistic foreign policy, it is to trash America’s traditional allies and alliances especially NATO and befriend the most bizarre nations and right wing leaders. However, if anyone was polled as to who he regards as America’s greatest ally, it would be Israel with of course Saudi Arabia and Russia in a photo finish for second place. His approach to Syria uncovers what he really thinks.
NATO AND RUSSIA, TRUMP AND PUTIN
The North American Treaty Organization, (NATO), which celebrates its seventieth birthday this year has been an amazing success. It held the line during the Cold War from 1949 to the fall of Communism in 1991. During that time, when Donald was apparently asleep, the world was divided into two nuclear powers periodically terrfying all the world that it was on the brink of Armageddon. Proxy wars were fought all over the show including Vietnam and Korea which tore American society asunder. Nuclear arsenals were built up and children in American schools had nuclear drills at an order similar to those being executed in the event of shooters arriving with AK 47s.
When Putin’s beloved USSR collapsed and disintegrated into fifteen separate countries, America hailed this as the success of its capitalist, democratic society where freedom triumphed over communism and totalitarianism. What really hurt the Russian Premier was that the WARSAW PACT that had been formed as a buffer to NATO went the way of the USSR. What added to his ignominy was the fact that virtually all its members, seven Eastern European States, joined “the enemy” NATO thereby strengthening that organization to twenty - nine members. NATO had grown exponentially from the original twelve founder nations. Needless to say Putin simply hates the Western military alliance and what was the last straw for him was when Ukraine, which he considered an integral part of the Russian motherland, made moves to join the North Atlantic club.
From day one of the Trump presidency his agenda on NATO dovetailed with that of his newest best international friend. He got stuck into the organization and America’s traditional allies with a vengeance, threatening to withdraw if they didn’t pay their “fair share”. The latter was of course the biggest amount of garbage because the American defense budget has nothing to do with NATO. Lest there be any doubt as to the Trumpian intent it was leaked that he had told his advisors that he wanted out. But like in everything else he changed his public pronouncements from day to day and month to month.
Like in so many other situations the gamut of other Trump dysfunctional activities followed in Trump’s wake. The clean up mob from Tillerson to Pompeo with former Defense Secretary Mathis as the mainstay reassured the bemused and edgy NATO dramatic personae that Donald did not know what he was talking about. Congress, especially the Republicans, really got tense about Trump abandoning America’s role as the defender of Western liberal democracy so they let NATO and the world know that their only Congressional oversight of the President was on foreign affairs, which is the one portfolio that the President is traditionally given free rein.
The US legislative branch’s most recent act of defiance was to invite the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, to the rare honor of addressing a joint session of Congress. The Congress hailed the NATO Chief with nearly a score of standing ovations. The loudest acclamation of the address was for the statement that NATO had been founded to counter Russian aggression and remains a counter to an aggressive and unpredictable Russia. He pointed out that Russia remained a threat to democracy as exhibited by its aggression towards Georgia and Ukraine.
The Secretary - General threw a sop to an anxious and uncomfortable Vice President Mike Pence, who would be sure to report back to his boss. This the VP would do In words of one syllable so that the President would comprehend. Stoltenberg praised Trump for jacking NATO up by getting member states to spend more on their defense. Trump of cause was AWOL but more significantly so was his long suffering and ambitious Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who had according to the Washington Post, nothing conflicting on his calendar.
In an interview with Fareed Zakaria, Stoltenberg when challenged as to the threat Trump poses to NATO, reassured that Trump’s actions belied his statements and then rolled out a couple of behaviors which he interpreted as the POTUS’S undying support for the organization of defenders of liberal democracy. The Secretary General also confided to the CNN analyst that Trump had whispered in his ear in their private deliberations that he simply loved the organization. And that completed the run out of the Trumpian dysfunction on his foreign policy relating to NATO.
SAUDI ARABIA
Whichever way it is viewed Trump has been in an arranged marriage with the Saudis ever since wayback. There are many well footnoted books on the subject and Jay H. Ell recommends to the discerning reader, “The House of Trump and The House of Saud”. While Trump is not wedded to monogamy as he is also married to the Russians, the Saudis have more than a special place in his big heart. Jared, his son in law, and the only individual who is not blood related to have his trust, is his go to man with the current number one in the Arab Kingdom, MBS, Mohammed Bin Suleiman, who is a prince to boot. Jared and MBS are reported to be as thick as thieves. Jared who is one big operator is rumored to have been bailed out by his good friend in his disastrous purchase of a billion dollar property. The rumored payback is that Jared and his daddy in law are anchoring MBS’s tenuous hold on respectability after the murder of Washington Post’s editorial board member, Jamal Kashoggi.
Now The Donald is not very big in publicly professing his love for the desert kingdom, which in of itself makes the whole thing suspicious. The Kingdom, however, was his first port of call in his Presidency. Again the rumor, from reasonably reliable sources, is that they, the Saudis and Trump, are sorting out the Middle East between them. Trump is backing them in their proxy war with Iran in Yemen. The latter is turning out to be an international scandal, which if it wasn’t for Bibi Netanyahu behaving like Bibi Netanyahu in response to Hamas’s aggression, it would be the focus of as many resolutions that are against Israel for the Palestinian situation.
Now the Republicans in Congress are very suspicious of the Saudis and MBS. They are not quite persuaded that just because his Royal Highness is allowing women, the moment he releases them from jail, to drive motor cars in 2019, that he is on the side of all things bright and beautiful.
Whichever way the cookie crumbles the Saudis are largely responsible for the spread of Wahabi - Salafist fundamentalism and the terrorism that accompanies it. At the risk of boring the reader, Jay H. Ell has to point out where all the 9/11 terrorists came from and whose passport Osama held. More significantly the Madrases that the Saudis sponsored are still breeding intolerance in Muslim countries and throughout the world. The most recent result is turning the largest moderate Muslim country in the world, Indonesia, into a fundamentalist haven.
Once again the Republicans in Congress have seen the need to weigh on their fearless leader. Specifically they are weighing in the Kashoggi brutal and disgusting assassination. They have also invoked the War Powers Act telling Trump to get the hell out of Yemen.Trump faces a veto proof resolution on the subject.
Jay H. Ell has not the vaguest idea what is going on with Jared, The Donald and the Saudis. Supposedly they are crucial in the final solution to the Middle East. The Saudi leaders who have supposedly seen the light have not withdrawn from their major initiative of Islamic fundamentalism which has rocked the world, the results of which are still playing out.
They are involved with Trump in his Iranian fight as the Sunni Saudis despite the Shia Iranians.
ISRAEL AND THE SYRIAN , IRANIAN AND RUSSIAN AXIS
Now Trump professes his major foreign policy love is Israel. His response to any claim that he has been supportive of anti semitism by failing to condemn the anti semitic sloganeering of the ultra right in Charlottesville and his Hillary attack with a Star of David in the corner, not to mention his refusal to tell David Duke and his KKK crowd he doesn’t need their support is met with a pat response. The latter is that he has Jewish grandchildren but more importantly he has demonstrated his support of Bibi Netanyahu and Israel. In addition Israel and Trump share a common number one enemy, no dispute here, Iran.
In the light of his professed love for Israel Trump’s behavior in the Syrian war is inexplicable. He announced one tweet morning, to the shock of all including his inner circle, that he was pulling all US troops out of there. Now there are evil empires backing Assad namely Russia and Iran. Trump has to be well aware that Israel is doing all in its power to stop Iran turning Syria into another Lebanon with its Hezbollah. Syria could spawn yet another Iranian backed terrorist organization attacking Israel. Russia, whether Bibi denies it or not, is on Assad’s and Iran’s side.
Needless to say the clean up squad came out following Trump’s sell out to Israel, the opposition Syrian groups and the Kurds. Pompeo, the Secretary of State once again explained that Trump didn’t really mean what he said, the US would keep four hundred and fifty troops there. The last person to squeal would be Bibi on the eve of an election where he had already made an historical contemptible decision to form a pact with an Israeli terrorist party. He has posters on the streets of Israel with the photos of him and Trump. However he has to take into his devious calculations that Trump has let the Iranians in.
Now,Trump, for everyone that doubts that Israel isn’t top of his foreign country pops, will add, in addition to his grandchildren, he has declared that in the future he will physically move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, that the Golan heights are Israel’s sovereign territory and that he doesn’t give two hoots what Bibi does with the Israeli settlers and the Two State solution. With regard to the Embassy and the Golan Heights both of these are token gestures that cost nothing and really have achieved nothing new for Israeli security. Iran is the existential threat.
Trump will argue that he pulled out of Obama’s deal with Iran which had, ironically, shut down their nuclear operation. Therefore that too is just political posturing. The Israeli security establishment always claimed that the five nation deal with Iran was a good one and nobody but nobody has intimated that the Iranians have abrogated the accord. So what has Trump done for Israel lately on security - zilch. Of course Jared is on the job with a great big plan to save Israel but whatever it is it cannot include smashing the Iranian, Russian, Assad axis.
So who is Trump ultimately making happy with his pull out in Syria - certainly not the Israelis. No one can believe that he has executed this for the Iranians. That leaves his oldest best friend, mother Russia as the beneficiary. This should come as no surprise even though Mueller found no criminal collusion. However, those who are backing him, while holding their noses, are in for a big shock when the re elected Bibi, or miraculously if it is General Gantz, expose to the world, the outcome of Donald’s perfidy.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
All this leaves open the question that the Mueller investigation sort to resolve - the reason for Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election in favor of Donald J. Trump.
It also makes it clear that The Donald’s foreign policy is remarkably in line with his perceived personal agenda. The Israelis are about to learn the hard way that The Donald has no real friends, just ephemeral transactional allies. Putin and his Russia are the winners over Bibi and Israel for the moment.
The world awaits the results of Jared Kushner, the Secretary Without Portfolio’s negotiations to bring about peace to the Middle East.
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