Monday, April 1, 2019

TRUMP 2020 - ITS HEALTHCARE STUPID AND BARR WILL DELIVER






William J. Barr, who punted for the job of Attorney General at a time when Trump was looking for a “protector", has been charged with taking up the Trump convulsive policy change to focus on healthcare by ending Obamacare in the courts. Barr, who was called a political hack, “Cover - up General Barr”, in 1992 by famed Conservative commentator and Nixon speech writer, William Safire, accepted Trump’s destructive mandate, albeit under protest. This he did as rapidly as he came to exonerating Trump after the three years of investigation of Trump by Mueller and the FBI. 

The POTUS for whatever reason seems to want to divert attention from his emergency at the border and his recent victory of being found not guilty of collusion and then obstruction of justice by Barr. Apparently, like everything else, this was a spontaneous idea that came to him, literally on his way to the Senate, rather than representing a carefully worked out policy. Healthcare, he reckoned, is what it is all about and he was now going to focus on it. If that was the number one issue and he was after all number one then only he “alone can fix it”. To the glee of the Democratic Party Trump would make the 2020 Presidential campaign about society's medical care. 

HEALTH, TRUMP, THE GOP AND THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

While the reeling GOP legislators see this as yet another milestone around their 2020 necks no one is holding their breaths that they will buck the will of the new Emperor of the GOP. The House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthey strongly advised the President not to proceed while the Republican Leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, washed his hands of the matter by commenting that he was “looking forward to what President Trump was proposing and what he could work out with the speaker”. 

Trump, an omnipotent King, knows that whatever he does, even being accused of causing early deaths of loved ones, there is no reason to believe that his unmovable base of forty percent will budge. The POTUS confidently hopes that the faithful will accept - even though Mexico hasn’t payed for the wall he hasn’t built, that he hasn’t reopened the coal mines, and the factories, not reduced the national debt and not increased their wages in real terms - that he will now provide health care for every American. 

While Trump’s bizarre move won’t play in suburbia and throw the house further to the Democrats, he still might narrowly convince the States of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to deliver. With the country still polarized the POTUS has convinced himself that he can repeat his miracle of 2016. He will also argue to the believers that the alternative to him is Karl Marx. That and the fact that because he maintains that Medicare for all is socialist but his assertion for healthcare for all is not, he reckons will once again push him over the edge or so he gambles.

BARR’S NEW JOB AS TRUMP’S NEWEST BEST LACKEY TO IMPLEMENT INSANITY

Barr has now been charged with the POTUS’s new directive to have Obamacare totally obliterated in the courts. The President, spurred on by an isolated decision in Texas and ignoring all the unsuccessful challenges to Obama’s Affordable Care Act, hopes to perform yet another miracle. The fact that Barr is following Trump’s directive is more evidence that Trump somehow read that he was finally getting a man who would obey his leader - right or wrong as both Mr. Barr and the Secretary of Health opposed this move. Like every Cabinet Secretary before him Barr has to decide between integrity and go the way of a Mattis or a Tillerson or hang in like a Mnuchin or Nielsen. The problem with Barr is he has no choice he sold his soul in1992 and reminded the Trump Adminstration in his job application in 2018 that he had not wavered.

On its face this policy tsunami appears insane but it shows that Trump is getting the message, in a bizarre sort of way. Healthcare was the main policy issue that resulted in the Republicans losing 41 seats in November. Trump's tautologous logic is that in order to give healthcare to all it has to begin by taking away it or parts of it for at least half the population - whether it be diabetic management in the elderly, reproductive rights for women, free preventive care, coverage for dependent children, total healthcare for additional 21 million or risking it for 133 million, who can be refused insurance because of “existing conditions”. In addition millions who were covered by the new provisions of Medicaid would once again not have any medical care.

Trump who can’t walk and chew gum at the same time hasn’t computed that the two healthcare initiatives that he has taken responsibility for, eradication of Aids and addressing the opioid crisis, are totally dependent on Obamacare infrastructure. So if he fulfills one promise he axes two others in the process. 

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE THE MORE THEY REMAIN THE SAME

Trump’s support or lack of it has remained remarkably stable throughout the past three years. His approval rating has fluctuated between 38 and 42 percent while his disapproval rate has been steady as a rock between 53 and 55 percent. It should worry him that the spin that his new “protector” concluded that there was  “no obstruction” didn’t move the needle one jot, but it doesn’t. 

Trump operates with his tweets between the Fox Echo Chamber and his Nuremberg style rallies. He has had close on 70 mass jamborees since his electoral college victory in November 2016 - that is one for in every ten days in office. In between them he has spent 232 days, more than a quarter of his office term, on Trump Properties at tax payor expense. Like everything else this gross dereliction of duty does not impact his cult followers a jot. Having attacked President Obama for playing too much golf, “I love golf but in the WhiteHouse there won’t be time for vacations there won’t be time for golf - I am going to work my a..se off…”. Needless to point out, his failure to follow through having spent a 172 days at his golf properties, again, like everything else, does not impact his adoring base. 

TRUMP’S CYNICAL REASON FOR GOING AHEAD

Once The Donald had made his decision, according to the Washington Post there was a major tussle in the WhiteHouse as to whether to go ahead or not. His Acting Chief of Staff Peter Mulvaney punted to press on because Donald’s base “would just love it”. Trump had to be in two minds because the consensus on The Hill from where he had just returned was a resounding no. Apparently Vice President Pence was also against the move fearing the political consequences. But The Donald was not to be diverted from his new revelation, he was on his way to Michigan for the 67th or 68th Mass rally since taking office and the base would not really be juiced up by “no collusion” they had heard it so many times before. There of course was the “promises made promises kept” mantra which was wearing a bit thin as was the number one promise, “Mexico will pay for the wall” which had now morphed to “continue to build the wall” which not even they could really take seriously. So health policy it was going to be.

As Mulvaney and his newest best friend Lindsey Graham had argued healthcare was the issue and the Republicans needed to own it.  It was common knowledge that they didn’t know what they were talking about because the Republicans hadn't shown any taste for “owning it”. It costs money to give citizens medical care and to date when confronted as to their vision they would talk endless garbage about the market sorting it out. The Republicans have guaranteed, again with no understanding of political theory, that they will defend  government funded Medicare and the VA to the death and simultaneously protect America against “socialist” medicine. Trump, likewise, wasn’t going to be bothered by reason he would rid the country of the disastrous Obamacare and replace it for healthcare for all. He forgot to add that Mexico would pay for it. 

The Washington Post commented what the most disgusting fact of this whole issue was - no - one in Trump’s circle mentioned the devastation, pain, distress and death that axing Obamacare would evoke, with nothing to replace it with. One lame suggestion by Lindsey Graham is give the money to the States and let them decide. 
Apparently it would be more efficient to set up 50 bureaucracies to manage "health care for all". Trump, of course, hasn’t given the matter ten seconds thought and the Republican legislators are not about to put forward a “socialist” plan to compete with Obamacare. 

The question is, has Trump miscalculated in the same way he did by listening to Anne Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham just a few short months ago? He shut down the Government for 39 days to put the pressure on Nancy Pelosi to give him money for his wall only to have Mitch McConnell beg him to reopen the Government. Once again he is not listening to those that have their ear to the electorate. They haven’t forgotten the grass roots campaign lead by the Indivisible movement in the midterms. The town hall meetings and the sit ins that were packed with questioners with their number one priority Obamacare, still give the GOP legislators nightmares and they don’t need a rerun.

WILL TRUMP’S BASE HANG IN THERE ALTHOUGH THE MIDTERMS RESULTS SAY NO

The question is will his attempt to annihilate Obamacare with all its ramifications, offering nothing in its place, impact him as it had already devastated the Republican Party in the Midterms.  David Axelrod, Obama’s former Chief Advisor, believes so and he is a very cautious pundit. Remember the Democrats are far more trusted on healthcare than the Republicans  - 50% versus 34%. The Republican legislators have warned Trump not to go there. They couldn’t axe Obamacare when they held both Houses and in nine years in control could not put a plan together that even they could pass. But teflon Trump believes this is what his base wants and this is what he is going to punt. Lindsey Graham his newest best friend who abandoned the memory of his last best friend, John McCain, is with him as is, once again with feeling, are Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham. 

David Axelrod who has been around the country, in every nook and cranny and at every stop is thanked by grateful individuals who relate that his or her handicapped or chronically ill child can now receive care. Everyone knows a family like that. In addition others have written and spoken about the removal of caps on compensation which in the past were death sentences to those with life threatening illnesses. Then there has been a litany of testimony from those who were unable to receive coverage previously because of preexisting conditions.

 It is certain that whoever the Democratic candidate is will have concrete improvements on Obamacare to run on. The House majority is about to introduce legislation to that effect. For example, there are holes in the Affordable Care Act such as some in the Middle Class are paying more for their insurance as they do not qualify for subsidies. Speaker Pelosi will be opposed by Republicans in both chambers and of course by Trump who will offer nothing concrete other that they can do better.

There is little doubt that at the rallies the faithful will go rah rah rah when Trump announces his efforts to dump Obamacare through the courts where he has little chance. The majority that upheld Obamacare in the Supreme Court are still there - the four liberals plus Chief Justice Roberts. Roberts is growing more and more sensitive that Trump regards the Courts as a hindrance, is unlikely to change his mind. 

The question is whether Trump is in a lose lose situation with this issue? If the Courts support his Administration it is he who will have taken away healthcare and even if he had a healthcare plan he hasn’t the legislative control to push it through. In addition he is not going to have a free run on this issue and with every other promise down the tubes to his rural blue collar base why will the adoring give up their healthcare as well? Trump has no doubt they will. As the populist said at his inaugural, “I alone can save you….”. So far that base has not wavered from that mantra.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It is impossible to ascertain what his base might do in this instance. Polls mean nothing when it comes The Donald. Even the exit polls showed that he had lost in 2018. The fact is that there had to be defections of his base in the midterms, which his opinion polls did not reflect. Remember he campaigned for the Republicans like mad telling the faithful that this was all about him, (who else?), and they mustn’t embarrass him. The POTUS however figures with his name on the ballot the polls will hold and he will do what he did last time……..

There is an argument that Barr will lose his reputation if he goes ahead with this uncaring cruel senseless instruction, Those that disagree claim that he has no reputation to lose.

As Barr proceeds with his coverup summaries, redacts, delays and delays of the Mueller report so that by the time it reveals what Democrats are disgusted about, the illusion that there was no collusion would be irrelevant. If Barr is able to cover up this behavior maybe he is skillful enough to persuade the courts that Trump can deliver healthcare for all by removing healthcare for nearly all. 

Barr has joined  the other major enabler in the Trump phenomenon, Mitch McConnell. Both of them, like Roy Cohn, who had his name stained in the history books by his support of the demon Joseph McCarthy, have ensured a place in the story of America, which will make their descendants cringe at their mention. It has to be no coincidence that Roy Cohn became Donald Trump's counsel as well.

The Democrats must focus on healthcare and other policies as they did in the midterms rather than trying to move the needle with Trump’s base by telling them what they already know but don’t care, namely that Trump is corrupt. They just have to find out for themselves that he does not really value them and that he is manipulating them for his own agendas.

As John Boehner the former former Republican House Speaker said when Trump tried to axe Obamacare the first time, “Good luck. It’s just not going to happen”.












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