The importance of the 2020 US election, which is dominated by the Presidential contest, cannot be exaggerated. It comes at a time when the post world war order and dominance of liberal democracy has been challenged by narrow nationalistic populism. While one of the precipitating factors of this turnaround was economic inequality, the left wing political parties had no attraction in several countries in Europe, Russia, Latin America and most notably in the UK and the United States of America. The significance to the world of America being able to ditch populist nationalism is that it has been the guardian of human rights and individual liberties in the post war period. The election, once again of a President, who disses these values will not only change the American scene for decades to come it will reverberate across the globe. In attempting to counter the distinct possibility the Democrats need to resist the temptation to focus on Trump, who thrives on the attention, and continue with their 2018 tactic of seeing, hearing and recognizing the priorities of “the people”.
A DEMOCRAT PRESIDENT IS FAR FROM A SHOE IN
America, a country in perpetual election mode is full swing into the 2020 election cycle with the 2018 Congress only a 100 days old. In the midterms the Democrats had a sensational outcome flipping 41 Congressional seats and taking control of the House of Representatives. Notwithstanding that success Donald Trump’s name was not on the ballot so a Democrat Presidential nominee is far from a shoe in for the 2020 WhiteHouse. The current Presidential incumbent’s base remains firm regardless of his legal peril. With 40 percent of the electorate behind him in spite of daily scandal and the chaos of his Presidency, Trump is only 7 percent off the number that put him into power. The Donald is more than aware that the incumbent invariably gets a second term hence his non stop tweeting and Nuremberg rally style campaign mode that won him his first term is in top gear.
The fact that a populist nationalist won the Presidency when the major causes of the middle class anger was predicated by income inequality, wage stagnation and job loss is indicative that the political dynamic has dramatically altered. Under adverse economic circumstances, if the traditional left - right wing political spectrum was in play the Democrats would have benefited. Instead the small significant percentage that swopped parties were from the Mid West industrial states that the Democratic Party, (DP), had consistently held. The Democrats cannot afford to counter Trump by traditional left wing doctrinaire politics. There is a danger that they might as a number of their large field of candidates for the DP nomination are trying to outdo each from the left.
THE DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE FOR 2020
The current Democratic Presidential field is exiting and exploding with enthusiasm and ideas but the prospective nominees are all over the policy and ideas map with the winner impossible to predict. What is needed now is a clearcut Democratic agenda based on the key issues that portended the dramatic 2018 turnover. One of the problems of the non parliamentary American political system is that there is no official leader of the opposition to set the agenda .
The DP face two hurdles to their challenge of Trump: The danger of not having a single coherent policy in answer to Trump’s populism which leaves him free to cherry pick the Democratic platforms that favor him and run against a straw man of his own making. (Ironically Bernie Sanders is not the most radical in the field and already adapting). Secondly, like in 2018, the DP have to forego the temptation of focusing on his miserable, uncaring, corrupt and authoritarian Presidency. Trump feeds off that rhetoric and will claim that this is criticism from the elites and that, “Nobody knows this system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it”. They have to stick to the Andrew Gillum dictum of 2018, “Never wrestle with a pig”. Trump needs to be ignored. Let the media and the angry traditional Republican pundits play footsie with him. Nancy Pelosi needs to tell her Committee heads to cool it and work less ostentatiously in their quest to “expose” him. There is only one issue that might impact his base at the moment and that is his tax returns. The DP need not become obsessed with the Mueller report.
FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE 2018 DEMOCRATIC FRESHMAN CLASS
Nancy Pelosi needs to introduce comprehensive legislation in the House to set the 2020 DP election manifesto. This wily campaigner has already shown she can adapt in that she boldly promoted the talented freshman class. She showcased them in prominent committee positions, allowing several of them to be in the chair in committee and subcommittee sessions. This approached deviated from the past where the newcomers were shoved into obscurity on the grounds of their lack of seniority. By her actions she projected the new fresh face of the DP. There is more than method in her madness in bucking the staid hierarchical attitude to these Congresspeople. She needs them to retain their seats in the Republican districts that they flipped, particularly in the Mid Western States that gave Trump his victory with the minority of the 2016 vote. It is no secret that the new Democratic incumbents almost ignored the POTUS, concentrating on issues that resonated with those who believed that the elites had ignored them in the past as well as the suburban Republican women, who were so revolted by Trump that they finally bolted.
ISSUES THAT THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD PUT FORWARD AS LEGISLATION
Francis Fukuyama writing about the explosive success of the international populist movement, particularly in the foremost liberal bureaucracies of the UK and USA, explained in his defining book,”Identity and the Politics of Resentment”’ that the workers abandoned their default position of the left even if was against their financial interests. They trusted the populists to deliver on the issues more than the traditional politicians who had failed to recognize their needs. This even when their abandonment was to their financial disadvantage.
The electorates’ response resulted in the economists scratching their heads and sent the Parties back to the drawing board. In America the Republicans took the easy route they just handed the good old GOP to Trump Inc in an undignified, sad. pathetic and anti constitutional capitulation. The DP shifted gears in 2018 and now have to be careful to stick to the lessons served up by their freshman class. They exploited the one area where populist demagogues are vulnerable in that they promise an economic future they cannot deliver. In addition Trump assured a magical solution to the vexing problem of immigration simultaneously labelling the immigrants as the economic, social and criminal problem facing America. He has not fulfilled his promise on Mexico paying for the wall and with his incoherent response to the issue has worsened the situation with no foreseeable solution in sight.
So Pelosi needs to begin working hard at legislation that will provide answers and in the process help define the DP Presidential agenda. While bold initiatives are needed they must have a chance of swaying the electorate. It is salutary to note that 36 of the Democratic freshmen won in middle of the road Republican constituencies. The areas that need to be covered are health care and income inequity - through tax legislation, job training and infrastructure projects and immigration. The latter is first and foremost as immigrants have been used as the economic bogeymen as well as the threat to the culture and values of American society.
IMMIGRATION
It is no use standing around watching Trump flounder around while criticizing his inhumane behavior, a comprehensive package needs to presented. There is even a consensus among Republicans on a number of the issues. Broadly speaking they don’t support the uprooting of those who are part of the American economic and social scene today and Trump’s Alice in Wonderland solutions to the current chaos at the Southern border.
More specifically an approach would entail that; it is impractical and economic suicide to believe that 11 million illegals who are integrated into American society can be thrown out. A pathway to residency and then citizenship has to be agreed to in principle and then thrashed out and that Obama’s recognition that the birthers’ status in America has to be regularized. An infrastructure needs to be instituted that can rapidly determine in a quick and humane way the status of those presenting at the border. A determination can then be made as to who legitimately qualifies for amnesty . A bipartisan commission needs to be set up to make changes to the existing legal immigration system taking into account the needs of the country and its traditional values. Appropriate aid needs to be provided to the countries where these desperate souls are fleeing from not withdrawn as Trump has done, worsening the situation.
The Democrats have to be seen to be tackling this problem the solution of which is not only the cessation of the inhumane unconscionable actions of separating parents and children and putting children in cages but a rationale answer to the irrational rhetoric and xenophobia emanating from the President.
HEALTH CARE.
It is crazy to start punting Medicare For All which will never happen. Stick to amending Obamacare, getting the 30 million uninsured on it, cutting the cost of prescription drugs and increasing the number of Primary Care Doctors. Have another look at the Clinton proposal that couldn’t get off the ground in the 1990’s. Note that it couldn’t get to first base when the DP controlled all three branches of government. Healthcare reform has a colossal ally which it didn’t have for generations, namely the medical establishment. The rural communities will lose their hospitals if Obamacare goes -focus on that. Not only has the issue the potential to shake up a constituency which is currently part of the Trump base it could get another major medical constituency on board - the hospitals.
In short don’t get revolutionary the electorate doesn’t resonate. Even Obamacare which assisted so many took nearly eight years to be supported by the majority of the citizenry.
TAX POLICY
Here the electorate are onsides. It is just question again of not going overboard. Company tax should stay but all the deductions shouldn’t. No buy back of shares - that money is supposed to go into wages and research and development. The majority of the billionaires agree that they should be taxed more and the idea of a wealth tax should be researched. A minimum wage is needed - half the population could not find 500 dollars should they face an emergency. A meaningful effort should be addressed towards reducing income inequality. One further point the continuing deficits should be a focus. These have been exacerbated by Trump spending like a drunken sailor and giving the rich handouts that have not trickled down. Henry Ford realized that he could only sell his cars if he gave his workers enough salary to buy them.
AMERICAN VALUES
Instead of attacking Trump for trampling over American democracy the values and customs need to be stated in positive terms. Patriotism should replace nationalism there is a difference. All Americans say they support the Constitution, the Bill of Rights and the Declaration of Independence. In addition the support that has evolved for all the institutions over two and a half centuries is supposedly sacred.
JAY H. ELL COULD GO ON AND ON
There are several urgent issues like job training, job creation linked to infrastructure development and repair, climate change, the cost of college education which is outrageous and the like but Jay H. Ell is sure the reader gets the drift. The issues that Trump trumpeted were going to be answered by economic nationalism need to be addressed. This is most easily done in the economic sphere but there is a large identity group that were taken for granted by the Democrats, that consolidated his base. - the American workers who perceived that their needs were being ignored by Washington. There are those that jumped on the bandwagon that were xenophobic nationalists and for them Trump will always be their man. But there are plenty of others that had legitimate grouses. Unhappily for the left pure economic solutions are not the answer. Nor does the electorate react well to radical changes.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The never ending number of the talented Presidential Democratic field has largely not learned the lessons of 2016 and the solutions of 2018. There is an overwhelming need for the Democratic Party leadership to set an agenda that falls in line with the tactics of the successful Democratic freshmen of 2018. Most significantly they went into their communities and made their constituents feel seen and heard.
Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House has the gravitas and the support to enact legislation that will define an agenda for the Democratic Party. She should not delay. Furthermore she should not allow the committees of Congress to get bogged down solely on Trump.
There is an urgent need for America to redefine its values of liberal democracy both for themselves and for the world.
The issue of immigration needs to be addressed head on. Not only is it a practical necessity but the whole false, bigoted Trump mantra is inextricably bound to it.
Hold onto your seats America is in for a rough ride as the increasingly crazed POTUS tries anything and everything to show his base that he, not the Washington elites, is in charge. Besides behaving like King Trump, the first, no madcap scheme will be out of bounds as he tries desperately to hang onto power. He might even declare that he can run a third term or that he should be King forever with Donald Jnr. to succeed him.
When do you think that the Congressional Republicans will wake up to the fact that all they are is voting fodder to trash what principles they still have left?
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