TRUMP, BIDEN, THE NRA, THE SYNAGOGUE ATTACK AND THE DEMOCRATS

A number of synchronistic events occurred within 36 hours  in the troubled America of 2020. They illustrated that whatever Trump says and does fails to move his loyal forty percent base one jot. This reality has to be taken into account by the Democratic Party, (DP), establishment including the score of candidates pursuing Presidential nomination.

A tension exists among those, including the Presidential campaigners, who want to make Trump’s patent evil front and center of their agenda while the other faction pointedly ignore Trump, rather presenting an alternate domestic program allowing Trump to run against himself. The former approach was the tactic of Hillary Clinton who believed that Trump was just too bad to be elected while the latter was the basis for the Democratic tsunami that won back the House of Representatives in 2018. Central to this dilemma is whether or not to impeach the President, some protagonists claiming that the Trump conduct is so outrageous that the DP have a constitutional duty to proceed. The most valid metric in making a decision is what will stop a second Trump term. Significant too is that while well over 60% polled said that he was a liar only 35% would impeach.

BIDEN, TRUMP, THE RIGHT WING, THE NRA AND ANTI - SEMITIC TERRORISM  - ALL IN A DAY AND A HALF

Firstly, former Vice President Joseph Biden announced, on a Friday morning, his candidature for the Presidency and against conventional wisdom elected to run his campaign on cultural issues. His centerpiece being his opposition to Trump’s response to the “Unite the Right” Charlottesville violent rally. Biden epitomized the latter as the POTUS’S destruction of everything that America stood for. Specifically Biden’s announcement focussed on the right wing anti semitic nationalist chant on that occasion,“Jews will not replace us”. Obama’s Vice President compared the right wing behavior, replete with their slogans and signs as being akin to the Nazis of the 1930’s. The former Vice President then characterized the 2020 election being for “The Soul of The Nation”. 

The second major occurrence was an attack on a Jewish House of Worship in Porway California which was perpetrated by a self confessed 19 year old anti semite using an automatic AK weapon which mercifully stuck after a few shots.  A third interlocking event, just a day before, saw the Trump keynote address at the National Rifle Association, (NRA), convention. There the POTUS pledged his undying support for the NRA’s unfettered support of the  Second Amendment which includes the right to purchase automatic weapons such as the AK 47. Lastly, Trump on Saturday evening appeared at a rally in Green Bay Wisconsin with the objective of reassuring himself and the world that in the light of the Mueller report and the Democratic Congress investigations, his base still holds firm. Inter alia he condemned the anti -semitic attack that had taken place earlier that day in California. 

Congressman Eric Stalwell, who is one of the twenty Presidential candidates for the Democratic nomination to oppose Trump in 2020 and whose major campaign issue is gun control, responded to the Trump reaction to the Californian tragedy, “Spare us your thoughts and prayers which is an alibi for doing nothing about gun control”. Stalwell continued, “We are in a country where we have unrestricted weaponry and we have growing hate groups where we see a failure of leadership to denounce them”. 

Trump’s position is in sharp contrast to that of the New Zealand Premier who had automatic weapons banned within a week of the recent assault on a mosque. Incidentally the shooter in California claimed inspiration for his actions from the New Zealand carnage as well as that of the assault on life in The Tree of Life Synagogue shooting in Pittsburgh six months earlier. Trump by contrast pledged to the NRA that their fight was his, AK’s and all.

THE RISKS OF BIDEN’S FRONTAL ASSAULT

Former Vice President Joseph Biden at 76 years of age claimed that the crisis that Trump had created against what America stood for, had persuaded him to enter the race. Unbeknown to him the very issues that he singled out were to be encapsulated within 36 hours of his announcement. He claimed that Trump, following the “Unite The Right” Charlottesville rally, had created a moral equivalency between their Nazi like behavior, including outright anti - semitism and the patriots that had bravely stood up to the “haters”. A young female activist was murdered by a right wing supporter in Charlottesville. Biden claimed dramatically, “The core values of this nation, our standing in the world, our very democracy, everything that has made America, America is at stake”. Trump’s moral equivalence had “shocked the conscience of the nation”.

The stakes of choosing this route are high as Trump is the master of controlling the narrative. There is nothing more he relishes than being the center of the dynamic. However he did appear to be unprepared for this assault. He retorted lamely that he “had responded perfectly when he had claimed that there were very fine people on both sides”. He argued that "(The Unite the Right Group) had gone to Charlottesville in protest to the removal of the  statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee who was, “whether you like it or not a very fine general”. Trump’s comeback gained little traction containing the usual smears - “Sleepy Joe had low intelligence”.

At the time of the Charlottesville incident the POTUS”S commentary had caused visible discomfort amongst the Republicans and his chief economic advisor Gary Cohn publicly criticized him as well as several members of the GOP. His latest counter to the Biden challenge also resulted in squirming because Robert Lee is hardly a poster child for the Party. He was the defender of slavery and many apportioned a good share of the blame of the 600,000 Americans that succumbed in the Civil War to him. Moreover his continuing failure to acknowledge that one of “the fine men” in Charlottesville had perpetrated murder, stood out like a sore thumb. 

The question remains whether Biden, a middle of the road Democrat with fifty years of baggage, will win the nomination then if he succeeds will his cultural plea win out. Part of the answer to that question lies in what makes up Trump’s voting base and whether the tactic that failed with Clinton will prevail with Biden. Biden currently tops the polls by a slim margin but this could just be name recognition. Obama’s former Vice President will also be assisted by three possible Republican Primary contenders for the GOP nomination. One has declared himself, the former Governor from Massachusetts, William Wild. While the latter is chanceless he will garner publicity for his message which includes attacking Trump's Charlottesville responses.

WHO IS TRUMP’S CONSTITUENCY AND WHAT WILL THEY TOLERATE?

The 36 hour events showed in glorious technicolor that the faithful will tolerate everything and anything as Trump’s duplicity and hypocrisy was on stark display. The anti semitism that had rung through Charlottesville causing a death was the self same that had been sounded in California and previously in Pittsburgh, the latter two accompanied by AK rifles. As opposed to supporting legislation to remove automatic weapons Trump had vigorously defended their unfettered sale at the NRA a day earlier. The base was not holding him to account. An analysis of his base makes all of his incongruous actions comprehensible.

Trump’s electoral college victory was predicated on two factors -  forty percent that remain his base and about a seven percent swing vote that is currently not on his side. Currently his approach is to see that none of the base desserts him and when the time comes, to win back the remainder that put him over the top in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. How his base is made up accounts to a certain extent for some his outlandish incomprehensible positions. The hard core are made up by the Christian Evangelicals who will never ever desert this sinner as he opposes abortion and has given them Supreme Court Judges Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. The vast Right Wing right up to David Duke, former Grand Wizard of the Klu Klux Klan are also firmly in his court. Added to those is the extended NRA constituency. Then there is the traditional diminished government base that have pulled the lever for the Grand Old Party since time immemorial. Included among the latter are the rural constituencies, the thinly populated Northern States as well as the more populated South. While the suburban Republican women deserted the GOP in 2018 who knows if they will return to Trump in 2020. (The intellectuals and the pundits have largely departed as have stalwarts like the matriarch Barbara Bush who did not die a Republican). 

Assuming that the base holds firm, the big question is whether those from the Mid West rust belt that joined the discontented and neglected rural Republicans will remain in Trump’s camp. The blue collar workers from the coal mines and the factories, many of whom voted for Obama twice, were crucial to the reality television star’s triumph, as they too had been invisible to the Washington elite. 

BIDEN’S RATIONALE, HIS CHANCES, THE DP’S AGENDA AND TRUMP’S BAITING

Biden, with all his baggage, is heavily identified with the rust belt workers of the Democratic Party. He is synonymous with his native State of Pennsylvania. He is inextricably bound to Barack Obama, who in 2020 represents the middle of the road of the Democratic Party. Biden's hope is that the surveys that claim the DP's electorate’s number one priority is defeating Trump will therefore logically choose him. According to the WhiteHouse insiders, who are still leaking like a sieve, Biden is thought to represent the biggest threat to Trump’s re election. What is in doubt is the Obama successor’s tactics which fly in the teeth of the Democrats 2018 success.

Whatever direction the Democratic frontrunner veers Nancy Pelosi needs to put into the record legislation that sorts to address the electorate’s top priorities including health care, education costs, wage inequity and most importantly immigration. Trump is deliberately allowing chaos to ensue at the border which he will focus on nearer the election date. 

As matters stand impeachment is off the table. Trump, buffeted by Fox News and his new sidekick, Attorney General Barr, with their outright disregard for the Democratic Congress, is trying to goad the DP into impeachment. That will give Trump the victim status he is now reverting to after the Mueller "witch-hunt". While he still claims the report exonerated him his current emphasis is on the DP desire to get rid of him by impeachment and through their investigations. In the unlikely event that Pelosi will allow an impeachment to happen the spineless Republicans in the Senate will not vote to remove him allowing him to switch back into his triumphant, omnipotent, super human mode again in time for the election.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Notwithstanding Biden’s election strategy the Democratic Party needs to stick to their 2018 agenda of pushing their positive program and exposing Trump where is weakest, namely his inability to deliver on his economic promises and  well paid jobs and his tax cut for the rich . While Biden’s stand delivers a crucial message - one that he might be able to carry off - it is unlikely that any of the other 19 hopefuls could deliver it. In addition Biden can stand up to the abuse Trump would heap on any opponent. 

Again notwithstanding the Biden crusade, as it played out over a 36 hour period, the base of the POTUS believe in the dictum, “My leader right or wrong”.

TRUMP: IF ONLY STARR HAD BEEN THE SPECIAL PROSECUTOR

For whatever reason on some PC's the full article does not appear. It is present on all mobiles

Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller, having diligently performed his duty under the Constitution by investigating the Russian intervention in the 2016 election and whether Trump and his campaign criminally conspired to assist them, followed precedent in not indicting a sitting President. At the end of the day the laid back respected civil servant didn’t deliver to the legislators an out right injunction to set into motion an impeachment process, thereby leaving them to work it out. Unlike Kenneth Starr who had delivered for the Congress in the Clinton affair with a referral for impeachment, Mueller having delivered the factual goods, deferred indirectly inviting Congress to enact its constitutional obligation.  

Many wished that Rod Rosenstein had recalled Starr to be the investigator because he got his man one way or another. He relied on lies about sex to nail his quarry  - and heavens knows there is enough of that with Trump.

MUELLER, BARR AND TRUMP

Bob Mueller is being congratulated for his consummate professional behavior in producing a devastating comprehensive report, albeit redacted by Attorney General Barr, that details the successful campaign the Russians perpetrated in subverting American democracy in assisting in the election of Donald Trump. (A fact that the POTUS has not accepted to this day, having maintained, “Vladimir Putin was extremely strong in his denials. I have a President Putin. He just said it is not Russia. I will say this - I don’t see that it would be”.) 

Trump who doesn’t read books should listen to the Volume 1 of the audiobook of the redacted Mueller report. He would learn what his newest best friend Vladimir executed and how he and his campaign went along, welcomed and encouraged good old Vlad.Then in Volume 2 the meticulous civil servant went to colossal pains in rolling out in exquisite detail all the stratagems the 46th President utilized in an attempt to prevent the aforementioned from being exposed, even though he argued that it had never happened. Mueller in fact found “collusion” but it was just short of criminal conspiracy which was what the pedantic analyst was researching.

 For all the other citizens that are too busy to wade through the gory treasonous behavior of Trump and his campaign just read the executive summaries that Barr initially withheld in favor of his disgusting spin. 

 Trump and his man Barr displayed great satisfaction that although there was abundant evidence that Trump’s campaign, liked, encouraged, held meetings with Russian operatives dishing out internal polling figures and collecting dirt on Hillary in return, did not rise to a criminal conspiracy. Barr spun it as “ no collusion” even after the report had specifically said that collusion was not the legal rubric that they had conducted the investigation under. 

 Barr found Trump not guilty of Obstruction of Justice within two days of receiving the two year long investigation. He then took three weeks to actually read it so he could redact some of it. Then before handing it over to Congress, which had unanimously demanded the whole lot, he gave another interpretation of the contents in order to set the narrative. Once again he spun it in terms of the Trump talking points and when asked by the media why he hadn’t brought Mueller along to present the Mueller report, he snapped back, “It is my report”, just in case anyone didn’t know. In the interim he had once again made a spirited rendition of the POTUS’S  two year long disinformation effort by backing up his conspiracy theory that Obama had spied on him and reassuring Lindsey Graham that he would look into investigating the investigators. 

It was patently obvious that the Democrats wished that old Rod Rosenstein had not called upon a committed patriot to do the work of the people who just wouldn’t do their political job and call out loud for impeachment. Instead they might have preferred a political hack like Kenneth Starr.

WOULD STARR HAVE AVOIDED THE DISASTARR OF THE DILEMMA FACING THE DEMOCRATS?

Kenneth Starr who was the Special Prosecutor in the Clinton Whitewater land deal and the allegation that the Clintons murdered Vince Foster could find no evidence, zilch, of wrongdoing on those two charges. Undeterred at his failure, he decided, according to former 7th Circuit Appellate Chief Justice Posner, to execute prosecutorial misconduct by colluding with lawyers in an unrelated litigation on sexual harassment, to entrap the President into lying about a consensual affair with an intern, Monica Lewinsky. Now Clinton’s lying under oath subsequently led to Starr submitting a 445 page unredacted report to Congress with 11 grounds for impeaching William Jefferson Clinton.  

Assuming that the Clinton Special Prosecutor had been appointed to investigate the 46th POTUS and that he was just as zealous at getting his man as he was in the case of the 42nd then the way to go would have been to forget about Russia, “are you listening”, and go for the sex - and already he had a case, good old Stormy Daniels and a ton of other related stuff to go on. 

Trump had already been named as a coconspirator in a case where his former lawyer is going to jail. It was outright alleged that he instructed his attorney to pay to quash the story of the porn star’s affair with him. With the “collusion” of his friend David Pecker, the boss of The National Enquirer, he would ensure that the story would never see the light of day. Trump lied up the ying yang on every aspect of the matter. 

The conniving ex Special Counsel, Starr, wouldn’t worry about campaign finance law violations  because his strong suit is smut. In addition to Stormy there is another lady, former Playgirl, Karen McDougal, out is there in the public domain that The Donald paid off. 

The Donald, as a result of several other related behaviors is affectionately referred to as “The Porn Star, pardon the pun, President”, would provide ample material for Starr to work on. (Full disclosure, as Jay H. Ell will explain later, Ken Starr is probably the biggest legal hypocrite to opine on the Mueller investigation, but for the moment, let the case proceed).

THE NUB OF THE STARR REPORT ON CLINTON - SEX DESCRIBED IN PORNOGRAPHIC DETAIL 

Starr, unlike Mueller, would not rest till he had the 42nd President give evidence before the Grand Jury. This was on videotape which Starr showed to the world. Starr, unlike Barr, went to a Federal Judge to allow that testimony to become public. (The slick Barr who has happily and unashamedly taken on the role of Trump’s attorney dismissed, with contempt, the suggestion that he would get Grand Jury material unredacted. He knew it would further shame his fairy tale rendition of the Mueller report). 

Starr then interrogated Monica Lewinsky who had the sordid interlude with Clinton, threatening her with indictments if she didn’t cooperate. In this political frenzy to bring down Clinton the Special Prosecutor ruined the young intern’s life. 

Lying under oath, obstruction of justice, perjury, abuse of power and other related stuff relating to Clinton’s denial, “that he did not have sex with that woman, Ms. Lewinsky”, was the reason for the Starr impeachment referral. What was spelt out in graphic detail were the seven “encounters” Clinton had with Lewinsky. (The voyeur Starr was joined by that other paragon of sexual propriety, Associate Judge of the Supreme Court Brett Kavanaugh, who spurred Starr not to spare a detail and to stick it to that lecher Clinton). This hard porn picture guaranteed a record viewership. 

Each sexual moment was recorded in detail whether Lewinsky took off her bra, had her breasts fondled, was masturbated, whether Clinton ejaculated or not, the oral sex, the occasion he ejaculated on her blue dress, phone sex and the notorious occasion that he inserted a cigar into her vagina.

The Special Prosecutor was fastidious in backing up Ms. Lewisnky’s dates of the events by interviewing special agents and anyone who would have corroborated her story.

So with Starr at the helm none of the 445 pages of the investigation would be wasted on the Russians who attacked American democracy, the meetings that the Trump campaign had with the Russian operatives and the efforts Trump made to stop the investigation into these activities. It would be all about Trump lying about his sexual encounters. 

 SO ONTO STORMY DANIELS AND THE REST.

Good old Stormy has already written a book. She didn’t have a dress as proof of her liaison with G-d’s gift to women but she could describe Trump’s penis in detail. It was smaller than average but “not freakishly small". She gets even more detailed, “He knows he has an unusual penis. It has a huge mushroom head. Like a toadstool…”. Now Starr demanded that Clinton give a blood sample to prove that the semen on the dress was his. Likewise he would demand and even subpoena an examination of the 46th POTUS to confirm or deny Stormy’s observation. 

Stormy would not be enough for our legal scholar. He would go to the ends the earth to get more smut just like he did with Clinton. Starr would lock up women who refused to go along with his narrative as he did with Susan McDougal. The latter rejected the opportunity to give evidence to him because she claimed that if she denied an affair with Clinton he would charge her with perjury. A jury took the rare step of nullifying Starr’s attempt to keep her in jail. Susan McDougal was proved spot on when he charged a Ms Julia Hatt Steele with perjury when she refused to back up a Katherine Wiley claim that corroborated Wiley’s allegation that Clinton assaulted her. The case was chucked out and Steele subsequently charged Starr with prosecutorial misconduct. 

So if Starr had gotten the job the next order of the day would have been to subpoena Karen McDougal, (no relation to Susan), who was also paid $150,000 to have the story of her affair killed by team Donald. Karen had a consensual affair with Trump. The liaison lasted nine months with Trump flying her around the country for the indabas. Now of course Trump has lied about the payment for the affair but Michael Cohen taped him discussing the pay off. Starr could have had a field day with Ms. McDougal as she told Anderson Cooper that she had sex with Trump dozens of times. She would have been dragged before the Grand Jury and the intimate details  of her encounters would have been included in Starr’s referral for impeachment. 

HAVE NO FEAR STARR IS JUST A PARTY HACK - ROSENSTEIN MADE THE RIGHT CALL

But Starr had obviosly changed his modus operandi about such Presidential probes. He earlier warned Mueller not to go on a fishing expedition. Then he greeted the Mueller report echoing the Trump/Barr script. Speaking on Fox News he opined with that smug sickly cynical smile that has not changed in decades, “Great news”, arguing that the country has to be relieved that there was no “collusion” with Russia. Starr slickly warbled on that he was “glad Bill Barr made the call that there was no obstruction of justice". The Clinton Special Counsel said that Mueller’s detailing of all Trump’s obstruction attempts “was unfortunate” as it was an invitation for the Democrats to impeach. Starr reassured the Fox interviewer that “Bill Barr was a very honest guy” and that the investigators will be investigated. Ken Starr repeated that. “I hope that we don’t march down impeachment road as that leads to a cul de sac”. 

Following the Barr playbook when discussing the Obstruction of Justice charges Starr claimed that the President was “very angry and felt victimized” and none of the acts rose to the level of obstruction of justice. “Impeachment” he argued, “Is about very serious offenses” which presumably meeting with Russians and handing over polling data isn’t while lying about an affair is, Clinton's not Trump's that is. Like Barr, Fox’s legal interviewee, ruled that because the President had cooperated with Mueller he could not have obstructed justice. Also he agreed that if there was no criminal conspiracy, there can be no obstruction. For someone who aspired to be on the Supreme Court and was a Dean of a Law School he knows that is nonsense.  

AT THE END OF THE DAY

So Rod Rosenstein made the right call after all and the Democrats are going to have to live with their problem. The dilemma they face is that the Fox echo chamber reflects the alternative universe that Trump’s forty percent base live in. The Murdoch Empire is not in the business of exposing the hypocrisy of Starr and that slew of Republicans who believed that lying about an affair and all that followed was an impeachable offense in 1998 and in 2019 the President is unimpeachable for outrageous “High Crimes and Misdemeanors”, including Jay H. Ell may add, their criterion, lying about sexual relationships with women. 

2020 CAMPAIGN: DEMOCRATS FORGET ABOUT TRUMP

The importance of the 2020 US election, which is dominated by the Presidential contest, cannot be exaggerated. It comes at a time when the post world war order and dominance of liberal democracy has been challenged by narrow nationalistic populism. While one of the precipitating factors of this turnaround was economic inequality, the left wing political parties  had no attraction in several countries in Europe, Russia, Latin America and most notably in the UK and the United States of America. The significance to the world of America being able to ditch populist nationalism is that it has been the guardian of human rights and individual liberties in the post war period. The election, once again of a President, who disses these values will not only change the American scene for decades to come it will reverberate across the globe. In attempting to counter the distinct possibility the Democrats need to resist the temptation to focus on Trump, who thrives on the attention, and continue with their 2018 tactic of seeing, hearing and recognizing the priorities of “the people”.

A DEMOCRAT PRESIDENT IS FAR FROM A SHOE IN

America, a country in perpetual election mode is full swing into the 2020 election cycle with the 2018 Congress only a 100 days old. In the midterms the Democrats had a sensational outcome flipping 41 Congressional seats and taking control of the House of Representatives. Notwithstanding that success Donald Trump’s name was not on the ballot so a Democrat Presidential nominee is far from a shoe in for the 2020 WhiteHouse. The current Presidential incumbent’s base remains firm regardless of his legal peril. With 40 percent of the electorate behind him in spite of daily scandal and the chaos of his Presidency, Trump is only 7 percent off the number that put him into power. The Donald is more than aware that the incumbent invariably gets a second term hence his non stop tweeting and Nuremberg rally style campaign mode that won him his first term is in top gear. 

The fact that a populist nationalist won the Presidency when the major causes of the middle class anger was predicated by income inequality, wage stagnation and job loss is indicative that the political dynamic has dramatically altered. Under adverse economic circumstances, if the traditional left - right wing political spectrum was in play the Democrats would have benefited. Instead the small significant percentage that swopped parties were from the Mid West industrial states that the Democratic Party, (DP), had consistently held. The Democrats cannot afford to counter Trump by traditional left wing doctrinaire politics. There is a danger that they might as a number of their large field of candidates for the DP nomination are trying to outdo each from the left. 

THE DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE FOR 2020

The current Democratic Presidential field is exiting and exploding with enthusiasm and ideas but the prospective nominees are all over the policy and ideas map with the winner impossible to predict. What is needed now is a clearcut Democratic agenda based on the key issues that portended the dramatic 2018 turnover. One of the problems of the non parliamentary American political system is that there is no official leader of the opposition to set the agenda . 

The DP face two hurdles to their challenge of Trump: The danger of not having a single coherent policy in answer to Trump’s populism which leaves him free to cherry pick the Democratic platforms that favor him and run against a straw man of his own making. (Ironically Bernie Sanders is not the most radical in the field and already adapting). Secondly, like in 2018, the DP have to forego the temptation of focusing on his miserable, uncaring, corrupt and authoritarian Presidency. Trump feeds off that rhetoric and will claim that this is criticism from the elites and that, “Nobody knows this system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it”. They have to stick to the Andrew Gillum dictum of 2018, “Never wrestle with a pig”. Trump needs to be ignored. Let the media and the angry traditional Republican pundits play footsie with him. Nancy Pelosi needs to tell her Committee heads to cool it and work less ostentatiously in their quest to “expose” him. There is only one issue that might impact his base at the moment and that is his tax returns. The DP need not become obsessed with the Mueller report. 

FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE 2018 DEMOCRATIC FRESHMAN CLASS 

Nancy Pelosi needs to introduce comprehensive legislation in the House to set the 2020 DP election manifesto. This wily campaigner has already shown she can adapt in that she boldly promoted the talented freshman class. She showcased them in prominent committee positions, allowing several of them to be in the chair in committee and subcommittee sessions. This approached deviated from the past where the newcomers were shoved into obscurity on the grounds of their lack of seniority.  By her actions she projected the new fresh face of the DP.  There is more than method in her madness in bucking the staid hierarchical attitude to these Congresspeople. She needs them to retain their seats in the Republican districts that they flipped, particularly in the Mid Western States that gave Trump his victory with the minority of the 2016 vote. It is no secret that the new Democratic incumbents almost ignored the POTUS, concentrating on issues that resonated with those who believed that the elites had ignored them in the past as well as the suburban Republican women, who were so revolted by Trump that they finally bolted. 

ISSUES THAT THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD PUT FORWARD AS LEGISLATION

Francis Fukuyama writing about the explosive success of the international populist movement, particularly in the foremost liberal bureaucracies of the UK and USA, explained in his defining book,”Identity and the Politics of Resentment”’ that the workers abandoned their default position of the left even if was against their financial interests. They trusted the populists to deliver on the issues more than the traditional politicians who had failed to recognize their needs. This even when their abandonment was to their financial disadvantage. 

The electorates’ response resulted in the economists scratching their heads and sent the Parties back to the drawing board. In America the Republicans took the easy route they just handed the good old GOP to Trump Inc in an undignified, sad. pathetic and anti constitutional capitulation. The DP shifted gears in 2018 and now have to be careful to stick to the lessons served up by their freshman class. They exploited the one area where populist demagogues are vulnerable in that they promise an economic future they cannot deliver. In addition Trump assured a magical solution to the vexing problem of immigration simultaneously labelling the immigrants as the economic, social and criminal problem facing America. He has not fulfilled his promise on Mexico paying for the wall and with his incoherent response to the issue has worsened the situation with no foreseeable solution in sight.

So Pelosi needs to begin working hard at legislation that will provide answers and in the process help define the DP Presidential agenda. While bold initiatives are needed they must have a chance of swaying the electorate. It is salutary to note that 36 of the Democratic freshmen won in middle of the road Republican constituencies. The areas that need to be covered are health care and income inequity - through tax legislation, job training and infrastructure projects and immigration. The latter is first and foremost as immigrants have been used as the economic bogeymen as well as the threat to the culture and values of American society. 

IMMIGRATION 

It is no use standing around watching Trump flounder around while criticizing his inhumane behavior, a comprehensive package needs to presented. There is even a consensus among Republicans on a number of the issues. Broadly speaking they don’t support the uprooting of those who are part of the American economic and social scene today and Trump’s Alice in Wonderland  solutions to the current chaos at the Southern border. 

More specifically an approach would entail that; it is impractical and economic suicide to believe that 11 million illegals who are integrated into American society can be thrown out. A pathway to residency and then citizenship has to be agreed to in principle and then thrashed out and that Obama’s recognition that the birthers’ status in America has to be regularized. An infrastructure needs to be instituted that can rapidly determine in a quick and humane way the status of those presenting at the border. A determination can then be made as to who legitimately qualifies for amnesty . A bipartisan commission needs to be set up to make changes to the existing legal immigration system taking into account the needs of the country and its traditional values. Appropriate aid needs to be provided to the countries where these desperate souls are fleeing from not withdrawn as Trump has done, worsening the situation. 

The Democrats have to be seen to be tackling this problem the solution of which is not only the cessation of the inhumane unconscionable actions of separating parents and children and putting children in cages but a rationale answer to the irrational rhetoric and xenophobia emanating from the President.

HEALTH CARE.

It is crazy to start punting Medicare For All which will never happen. Stick to amending Obamacare, getting the 30 million uninsured on it, cutting the cost of prescription drugs and increasing the number of Primary Care Doctors. Have another look at the Clinton proposal that couldn’t get off the ground in the 1990’s. Note that it couldn’t get to first base when the DP controlled all three branches of government. Healthcare reform has a colossal ally which it didn’t have for generations, namely the medical establishment. The rural communities will lose their hospitals if Obamacare goes -focus on that. Not only has the issue the potential to shake up a constituency which is currently part of the Trump base it could get another major medical constituency on board - the hospitals.

In short don’t get revolutionary the electorate doesn’t resonate. Even Obamacare which assisted so many took nearly eight years to be supported by the majority of the citizenry. 

TAX POLICY

Here the electorate are onsides. It is just question again of not going overboard. Company tax should stay but all the deductions shouldn’t. No buy back of shares - that money is supposed to go into wages and research and development. The majority of the billionaires agree that they should be taxed more and the idea of a wealth tax should be researched. A minimum wage is needed - half the population could not find 500 dollars should they face an emergency. A meaningful effort should be addressed towards reducing income inequality. One further point the continuing deficits should be a focus. These have been exacerbated by Trump spending like a drunken sailor and giving the rich handouts that have not trickled down. Henry Ford realized that he could only sell his cars if he gave his workers enough salary to buy them. 

AMERICAN VALUES

Instead of attacking Trump for trampling over American democracy the values and customs need to be stated in positive terms. Patriotism should replace nationalism there is a difference. All Americans say they support the Constitution, the Bill of Rights and the Declaration of Independence. In addition the support that has evolved for all the institutions over two and a half centuries is supposedly sacred. 

JAY H. ELL COULD GO ON AND ON

There are several urgent issues like job training, job creation linked to infrastructure development and repair, climate change, the cost of college education which is outrageous and the like but Jay H. Ell is sure the reader gets the drift. The issues that Trump trumpeted were going to be answered by economic nationalism need to be addressed. This is most easily done in the economic sphere but there is a large identity group that were taken for granted by the Democrats, that consolidated his base. - the American workers who perceived that their needs were being ignored by Washington. There are those that jumped on the bandwagon that were xenophobic nationalists and for them Trump will always be their man. But there are plenty of others that had legitimate grouses. Unhappily for the left pure economic solutions are not the answer. Nor does the electorate react well to radical changes. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The never ending number of the talented Presidential Democratic field has largely not learned the lessons of 2016 and the solutions of 2018. There is an overwhelming need for the Democratic Party leadership to set an agenda that falls in line with the tactics of the successful Democratic freshmen of 2018. Most significantly they went into their communities and made their constituents feel seen and heard. 

Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House has the gravitas and the support to enact legislation that will define an agenda for the Democratic Party. She should not delay. Furthermore she should not allow the committees of Congress to get bogged down solely on Trump.  

There is an urgent need for America to redefine its values of liberal democracy both for themselves and for the world. 

The issue of immigration needs to be addressed head on. Not only is it a practical necessity but the whole false, bigoted Trump mantra is inextricably bound to it.

Hold onto your seats America is in for a rough ride as the increasingly crazed POTUS tries anything and everything to show his base that he, not the Washington elites, is in charge. Besides behaving like King Trump, the first, no madcap scheme will be out of bounds as he tries desperately to hang onto power. He might even declare that he can run a third term or that he should be King forever with Donald Jnr. to succeed him.

When do you think that the Congressional Republicans will wake up to the fact that all they are is voting fodder to trash what principles they still have left?

TRUMP: ISRAEL, SAUDI ARABIA, SYRIA, RUSSIA AND NATO

Donald J. Trump has no coherent foreign policy. What makes matters worse, like with everything else, he changes his mind within a tweet beat. He also, in private, gives foreign leaders another take. What further exacerbates the chaos is that his actions aren’t necessarily in sync with what he opines. Finally, the waters are further muddied by his administration running around “clarifying” what the policy really is. Nobody takes much notice of this behavior because it is par for the course and foreign policy is not on the list of priorities for voters. International relations however is the one area that upsets the Republican legislators no end and periodically they defy their leader with a vengeance. 

To sum up the POTUS’S simplistic foreign policy, it is to trash America’s traditional allies and alliances especially NATO and befriend the most bizarre nations and right wing leaders. However, if anyone was polled as to who he regards as America’s greatest ally, it would be Israel with of course Saudi Arabia and Russia in a photo finish for second place. His approach to Syria uncovers what he really thinks.

NATO AND RUSSIA, TRUMP AND PUTIN 

The North American Treaty Organization, (NATO), which celebrates its seventieth birthday this year has been an amazing success. It held the line during the Cold War from 1949 to the fall of Communism in 1991. During that time, when Donald was apparently asleep, the world was divided into two nuclear powers periodically terrfying all the world that it was on the brink of Armageddon. Proxy wars were fought all over the show including Vietnam and Korea which tore American society asunder. Nuclear arsenals were built up and children in American schools had nuclear drills at an order similar to those being executed in the event of shooters arriving with AK 47s. 

When Putin’s beloved USSR collapsed and disintegrated into fifteen separate countries, America hailed this as the success of its capitalist, democratic society where freedom triumphed over communism and totalitarianism.  What really hurt the Russian Premier was that the WARSAW PACT that had been formed as a buffer to NATO went the way of the USSR. What added to his ignominy was the fact that virtually all its members, seven Eastern European States, joined “the enemy” NATO thereby strengthening that organization to twenty - nine  members.  NATO had grown exponentially from the original twelve founder nations. Needless to say Putin simply hates the Western military alliance and what was the last straw for him was when Ukraine, which he considered an integral part of the Russian motherland, made moves to join the North Atlantic club. 

From day one of the Trump presidency his agenda on NATO  dovetailed with that of his newest best international friend. He got stuck into the organization and America’s traditional allies with a vengeance, threatening to withdraw if they didn’t pay their “fair share”. The latter was of course the biggest amount of garbage because the American defense budget has nothing to do with NATO. Lest there be any doubt as to the Trumpian intent it was leaked that he had told his advisors that he wanted out. But like in everything else he changed his public pronouncements from day to day and month to month.

 Like in so many other situations the gamut of other Trump dysfunctional activities followed in Trump’s wake. The clean up mob from Tillerson to Pompeo with former Defense Secretary Mathis as the mainstay reassured the bemused and edgy NATO dramatic personae that Donald did not know what he was talking about. Congress, especially the Republicans, really got tense about Trump abandoning America’s role as the defender of Western liberal democracy so they let NATO and the world know that their only Congressional oversight of the President was on foreign affairs, which is the one portfolio that the President is traditionally given free rein. 

The US legislative branch’s most recent act of defiance was to invite the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, to the rare honor of addressing a joint session of Congress. The Congress hailed the NATO Chief with nearly a score of standing ovations. The loudest acclamation of the address was for the statement that NATO had been founded to counter Russian aggression and remains a counter to an aggressive and unpredictable Russia. He pointed out that Russia remained a threat to democracy as exhibited by its aggression towards Georgia and Ukraine. 

The Secretary - General threw a sop to an anxious and uncomfortable Vice President Mike Pence, who would be sure to report back to his boss. This the VP would do In words of one syllable so that the President would comprehend. Stoltenberg praised Trump for jacking NATO up by getting member states to spend more on their defense. Trump of cause was AWOL but more significantly so was his long suffering and ambitious Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who had according to the Washington Post, nothing conflicting on his calendar. 

In an interview with Fareed Zakaria, Stoltenberg when challenged as to the threat Trump poses to NATO, reassured that Trump’s actions belied his statements and then rolled out a couple of behaviors which he interpreted as the POTUS’S  undying support for the organization of defenders of liberal democracy. The Secretary General also confided to the CNN analyst that Trump had whispered in his ear in their private deliberations that he simply loved the organization. And that completed the run out of the Trumpian dysfunction on his foreign policy relating to NATO.

SAUDI ARABIA

Whichever way it is viewed Trump has been in an arranged marriage with the Saudis ever since wayback. There are many well footnoted books on the subject and Jay H. Ell recommends to the discerning reader, “The House of Trump and The House of Saud”.  While Trump is not wedded to monogamy as he is also married to the Russians, the Saudis have more than a special place in his big heart. Jared, his son in law, and the only individual who is not blood related to have his trust, is his go to man with the current number one in the Arab Kingdom, MBS, Mohammed Bin Suleiman, who is a prince to boot. Jared and MBS are reported to be as thick as thieves. Jared who is one big operator is rumored to have been bailed out by his good friend in his disastrous purchase of a billion dollar property. The rumored payback is that Jared and his daddy in law are anchoring MBS’s tenuous hold on respectability after the murder of Washington Post’s editorial board member, Jamal Kashoggi. 

Now The Donald is not very big in publicly professing his love for the desert kingdom, which in of itself makes the whole thing suspicious. The Kingdom, however, was his first port of call in his Presidency. Again the rumor, from reasonably reliable sources, is that they, the Saudis and Trump, are sorting out the Middle East between them. Trump is backing them in their proxy war with Iran in Yemen. The latter is turning out to be an international scandal, which if it wasn’t for Bibi Netanyahu behaving like Bibi Netanyahu in response to Hamas’s aggression, it would be the focus of as many resolutions that are against Israel for the Palestinian situation. 

Now the Republicans in Congress are very suspicious of the Saudis and MBS. They are not quite persuaded that just because his Royal Highness is allowing women, the moment he releases them from jail, to drive motor cars in 2019, that he is on the side of all things bright and beautiful. 

Whichever way the cookie crumbles the Saudis are largely responsible for the spread of Wahabi - Salafist fundamentalism and the terrorism that accompanies it. At the risk of boring the reader, Jay H. Ell has to point out where all the 9/11 terrorists came from and whose passport Osama held. More significantly the Madrases that the Saudis sponsored are still breeding intolerance in Muslim countries and throughout the world. The most recent result is turning the largest moderate Muslim country in the world, Indonesia, into a fundamentalist haven. 

Once again the Republicans in Congress have seen the need to weigh on their fearless leader. Specifically they are weighing in the Kashoggi brutal and disgusting assassination. They have also invoked the War Powers Act telling Trump to get the hell out of Yemen.Trump faces a veto proof resolution on the subject. 

Jay H. Ell has not the vaguest idea what is going on with Jared, The Donald and the Saudis. Supposedly they are crucial in the final solution to the Middle East. The Saudi leaders who have supposedly seen the light have not withdrawn from their major initiative of Islamic fundamentalism which has rocked the world, the results of which are still playing out. 

They are involved with Trump in his Iranian fight as the Sunni Saudis despite the Shia Iranians.

ISRAEL AND THE SYRIAN , IRANIAN AND RUSSIAN AXIS

Now Trump professes his major foreign policy love is Israel. His response to any claim that he has been supportive of anti semitism by failing to condemn the anti semitic sloganeering of the ultra right in Charlottesville and his Hillary attack with a Star of David in the corner, not to mention his refusal to tell David Duke and his KKK crowd he doesn’t need their support is met with a pat response. The latter is that he has Jewish grandchildren but more importantly he has demonstrated his support of Bibi Netanyahu and Israel. In addition Israel and Trump share a common number one enemy, no dispute here, Iran.

In the light of his professed love for Israel Trump’s behavior in the Syrian war is inexplicable. He announced one tweet morning, to the shock of all including his inner circle, that he was pulling all US troops out of there. Now there are evil empires backing Assad namely Russia and Iran. Trump has to be well aware that Israel is doing all in its power to stop Iran turning Syria into another Lebanon with its Hezbollah. Syria could spawn yet another Iranian backed terrorist organization attacking Israel. Russia, whether Bibi denies it or not, is on Assad’s and Iran’s side. 

Needless to say the clean up squad came out following Trump’s sell out to Israel, the opposition Syrian groups and the Kurds. Pompeo, the Secretary of State once again explained that Trump didn’t really mean what he said, the US would keep four hundred and fifty troops there. The last person to squeal would be Bibi on the eve of an election where he had already made an historical contemptible decision to form a pact with an Israeli terrorist party. He has posters on the streets of Israel with the photos of him and Trump. However he has to take into his devious calculations that Trump has let the Iranians in. 

Now,Trump, for everyone that doubts that Israel isn’t top of his foreign country pops, will add, in addition to his grandchildren, he has declared that in the future he will physically move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, that the Golan heights are Israel’s sovereign territory and that he doesn’t give two hoots what Bibi does with the Israeli settlers and the Two State solution. With regard to the Embassy and the Golan Heights both of these are token gestures that cost nothing and really have achieved nothing new for Israeli security. Iran is the existential threat. 

Trump will argue that he pulled out of Obama’s deal with Iran which had, ironically, shut down their nuclear operation. Therefore that too is just political posturing. The Israeli security establishment always claimed that the five nation deal with Iran was a good one and nobody but nobody has intimated that the Iranians have abrogated the accord. So what has Trump done for Israel lately on security - zilch. Of course Jared is on the job with a great big plan to save Israel but whatever it is it cannot include smashing the Iranian, Russian, Assad axis. 

So who is Trump ultimately making happy with his pull out in Syria - certainly not the Israelis. No one can believe that he has executed this for the Iranians. That leaves his oldest best friend, mother Russia as the beneficiary. This should come as no surprise even though Mueller found no criminal collusion. However, those who are backing him, while holding their noses, are in for a big shock when the re elected Bibi, or miraculously if it is General Gantz, expose to the world, the outcome of Donald’s perfidy. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

All this leaves open the question that the Mueller investigation sort to resolve - the reason for Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election in favor of Donald J. Trump.

It also makes it clear that The Donald’s foreign policy is remarkably in line with his perceived personal agenda. The Israelis are about to learn the hard way that The Donald has no real friends, just ephemeral transactional allies. Putin and his Russia are the winners over Bibi and Israel for the moment.

The world awaits the results of Jared Kushner, the Secretary Without Portfolio’s negotiations to bring about peace to the Middle East.