WHO WILL DEMS CHOOSE TO OPPOSE TRUMP?

Assuming that Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election which Democratic Party, (DP), challenger has the best chance of beating him? Even though the Democratic field is far from finalized there are at least twenty - five candidates that have declared, indicated that they are considering a run or a just widely expected to give it a go. 

 The Primary process whereby Presidential candidates are elected is as byzantine and as complicated as the Electoral College that finally decides who will be the President. A central  problem is that different States use different processes to elect the 4,051 delegates to the Democratic Convention that formally nominates the Presidential Candidate. Besides the demographics and the policies of the prospective candidate the issue is further complicated by the order in which States first have their Primary contests. Very few of the candidates have the resources to continue after poor showings early on. Then name recognition, scandals, the debates, endorsements, fund raising all add to the mix. Finally, the Presidential choice might have to overcome a third candidate who may or may not draw support that will impact the outcome. 

THE DEMOCRATIC ESTABLISHMENT HAS NO SAY IN THE OUTCOME. 

It is a myth that the Democratic Party, it’s hierarchy or its legislators have any authority to nominate the candidate,  In fact the “Super Delegates” that existed in 2016 that gave Hillary a leg up in the 2016 Democratic Presidential run off have no say in the DP choice this time around and their influence has been relegated to a situation where the elected delegates are unable to make a decIsion. 

It would thus be far more appropriate to decide what characteristics and demographics would give the Democratic candidate the best chance of countering the alchemy that allowed Trump to emerge triumphant in the 2016 election in the hope that the Democratic primaries will somehow come to the same conclusion. It is fair to say that there is an ongoing debate as to what the demographics, policy and central thrust of the candidate should be should be in this changing world that allowed The Donald to win the election in the first place and the dramatic body politic and electoral responses to it. 

Analysing how the 2018 Democratic tsunami came about as well as Donald's victory in 2016 is a great start and all the DP have to do is to learn from 2016 and emulate 2018!

HOW DID THE DONALD WIN AND WHAT HAD HAPPENED THEREAFTER AND IN THE MIDTERMS.

The key region that flipped in favor of the POTUS was in the Midwest which had suffered most in a world where industry and manufacture jobs had not been replaced by the digital information revolution and was being threatened further by automation. The dejected laid of factory workers, coal miners and the like in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin  changed their States from red to blue by the narrowest of margins. Many of the Trump voters had supported Obama in the two previous elections. Trump also won the traditionally swing state of Florida by a similar whisker. The Republicans delivered the traditional red states and with three million less votes the reality TV/property developer became the POTUS.

Trump’s election to the Presidency evoked the largest mass protests in the country’s history since the Vietnam war. These were lead by The Women’s March which conducted nation wide gatherings throughout the country. The anger did not die and protestors began to organize, protest and marshal voters to the polls in special elections. The major movement in this regard was “Indivisible” which to this day is still active. They formed thousands of groups. The fact that in every special election, post Trump, whether it State or National, the Republicans lost support whether the seat was flipped or not, was evidence of their success.  

Similarly the midterms resulted in the biggest percentage shift towards the Democrats since Watergate and a 41 net seat gain in the House of Representatives which became Democratic once again. It did not however pass unnoticed, specially to Trump, that the Senate elections which markedly favored the Republican produced a two seat swing to the Republicans. Trump still had his base, albeit reduced.

WHO VOTED THE DEMOCRATIC VICTORY IN 2018?

Key to the Trump thrashing were the women who turned out in droves to elect a record number of their gender to Congress. A record 103 women, nearly a quarter of the members of the House of Representatives, gained membership. Of these 89 are Democrats and only 13 are  Republicans. In the Senate there are 25 women, 17 from the DP. The total number of Republican women in Congress, 21,  decreased by over a quarter in this midterm election cycle.

For the first time there was an equal percentages, (49), of white women voting for the Democrats and the Republicans. However where this really hit home was in the suburbs, where the  overwhelming majority of College educated Republican women were  situated and where the Democrats gained many of their seats. This happening occured largely in the suburbs of already blue states. In total the Democratic victory was as a result of their 59% to 40% lead of the women vote. 

While there was the usual disproportionately high percentage of minority support for the Democrats it was the fact that these groups turned out in far greater numbers than ever before that influenced the outcome .  It was interesting to note that Trump still got nearly 30% of the Hispanic vote as compared to 9% of the African Americans and 23% of the Asians. There are now 39 members of color in the House of Representatives. 

These results were particularly significant as the mid term turn out was the highest in a104 years. Overall, the Democrats beat the Republicans in total votes cast by a huge 9%.

WHERE WERE THE DEMOCRATIC VICTORIES AND IMPORTANT VOTE INCREASES 

What really mattered in the grand scheme of things, as far as the 2020 Presidential is concerned is what happened in the MidWestern and possible swing states. The Democrats in the House of representatives flipped 5 in Pennsylvania, 2 in Michigan, 3 in Minnesota, 2 in Iowa and 1 in Kansas. Happiness extended further in that Republican Governor Walker of Wisconsin went to a resounding defeat, and Democratic Senators Brown, (Ohio) 7% majority,  Klobuchar, (Minnesota) 23% majority, Baldwin, (Wisconsin), 11% majority, Casey, (Pennsylvania),13% majority and Stabenow, (Michigan) 7% majority all triumphed convincingly.

Seven Governorships were flipped to the DP including dark red Kansas and Michigan. Added to this were gains all over the show from Utah to Texas turning some States too a shade of purple. Red Colorado once again elected an openly gay Democratic Governor by a gigantic 11%. Governor Polis replaced popular John Hippenlooper who had served out two terms. Another significant result was in blood red Texas Beto O’ Rourke came within an ace. 2.5% of beating Ted Cruz, the Republican incumbent, while in Southern Georgia Stacey Adams came within a whispher of winning that Governorship. 

The largest gains, were as to be expected in solid Democratic States: California, 7, New York 3 and New Jersey, 4. 

What has to have cheered The Donald is that the GOP in the Senate contests won DP held Florida and beat out three other Democrats in States that he had won convincingly in 2016 while only losing two seats in the process. His base held. 

SO WHAT ARE THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF A CANDIDATE THAT CAN BEAT INCUMBENT TRUMP

There are good reasons behind the divisive Trump’s strategy that gave him electoral success in 2016. In spite of the fact that he campaigned like crazy in 2018 he was not on the ballot, so he reckons they don't count. 

He has to hope when it comes to a Presidential election the Republicans that deserted him will not have the stomach to vote for a “socialist” Democratic candidate who supports open borders to let illegals in who murder, rape, form gangs and take away jobs from real Americans. Central to his campaign, regardless of the Democratic nominee, he will be running against 2 of the 282 Democrats in Congress, Socialists, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Occasio - Cortez. 

He has been underestimated too often, an assessment not ignored by potential DP voters who in the polls favor the nominee who has the best chance to beat him.

THE DEMOCRATS DEMOGRAPHIES AND THEIR CHOICE

The Democrats are not a homogeneous group and are made up of four constituencies. According to Pew figures for those that identify as moderates or Conservative the breakdown is as follows -  whites without College degrees 30%, whites with College degrees 16%, African Americans 22%, and Latinos 21%. Notwithstanding that breakdown the perception at the moment is that the landslide in 2018 is being attributed only to the African American, Hispanic and Republican suburban swing. In addition, not without justification the former two minority demographics are “sick and tired”, of being taken for granted by the DP and showed their frustration in 2016 by not turning out in full force. There is no breakdown of demographics of the about 50% of the Democrats who identify as liberal. 

That upcoming star of the DP Stacey Adams believes that identity politics are important for 2020 so how does that line up?

It would appear at the moment that demographically a woman, particularly of color, who is liberal is the ideal candidate. There is one already who is high up in the polls - Kamala Harris of California. If it is just a woman than there already three more, Elizabeth Warren, the most aggressive liberally or as Trump would put it “socialistically”, Kristin Gillibrand from New York, and Amy Klobuchar who is from the Midwest and is just left of center. 

If the accent is on candidates of color in addition to Harris there is firebrand Cory Brooker, Latino Julian Castro and not as yet declared Obama AG, Eric Holder.

For the “worker” the two figureheads of Warren and as yet undeclared Bernie standout. For experience, there is of course undeclared 76 year old former VP Joe Biden as the one characteristic that both the 44th and 45th POTUSES have exhibited is a lack of experience, mitigated in the former by advisors and totally unmitigated in the latter. 

Then there are those that believe that a successful Democrat in a red state is the right way to go and top of that list are Sherrod Brown and Amy Klobuchar with John Hippenlooper, (Colorado) and the inexperienced but charismatic Beto O’ Rourke making up a short list. Those who coming out strongly on this demographic obviously have their eyes on the fact that these candidates are the best antidote to another Trump success.

POLICIES NOT IDENTITIES SHOULD DICTATE

Stacie Adam’s identity comment was in response to the celebrated political scientist Francis Fukuyama who has argued that identity politics was killing American and global democracy. The arch exponent being Donald J. Trump who is an unashamed nationalist, (White) and has negative attitudes to anyone else. 

Fukuyama, a former neo - conservative and now the most vocal supporter of Liberal Western democracy, believes that identity politics are narrow and undermine freedom. He states that the emergence of identity per se as a defining factor has produced populist nationalism that morphs into the politics of race, religion, anti immigrant rhetoric and gross intolerance of freedom of speech. He claims that when the populists talk about “the people” they only are focussed on one group and are excluding all the others. 

Fukuyama has referenced the literature that defined the hopelessness of those that felt excluded and forgotten by the elites - those that Trump exploited and ostensibly identified with for his surprise victory. In truth they are the largest constituency in the center Democratic stable and  had more to do with the DP resurgence in the MidWestern states than any other demographic. Fukuyama calls for a national identity to supersede focusing only on one or the other group.

It is obvious that Ms. Adams, a probable presidential candidate herself in the not to distant future, has misperceived what Fukuyama meant. There is no way that in the Southern State of Georgia could she have come within 1.4% of being elected on the basis of being an African American woman. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY.

Jay H. Ell believes that name recognition, authenticity and identification with “We the People” will probably win the day. There are three candidates, all undeclared that will be in the final mix - Bernie Sanders, Beto O’ Rourke and Joe Biden. The former two have a major advantage over the latter in that both won’t accept a penny from interest groups. They both can command colossal crowds and are spellbinding orators in their own right. Joe Biden has the experience to right the ship and has all the credentials to satisfy most of the constituencies but with experience comes baggage. 

O’ Rourke if he stands and gets around the country will be hard to beat - he can appeal to every constituency - he stood up for black activist kneeling NFL player, Colin Kaepernick in Texas! He visited every county in Texas, which are overwhelmingly rural and Republican and heard everyone out. Policy wise he is on the same page as the overall party. O’ Rourke lives on the border and he is the ideal candidate to take Trump on on immigration, which he already has. It is if destiny took a hand when Trump kicked off his anti immigrant “Finish the Wall” campaign in El Paso of O’Rourke who immediately organized a competing meeting  - one that attracted a similar crowd.

Not out of it of course are Amy Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, John Hippenlooper and the rest. An incredible field. 

And of course whoever wins, Trump will not fade away politely….. It will be immigration, make America white, the wall and back to the fifties, ala Joe McCarthy - “Better dead than Red!” All in the hope that the Midwest will return and forget the broken promises as would the defected, disgusted, nauseated Republicans.