AS TRUMP IMPLODES WHO ARE THE DEMOCRAT ADULTS?

While Trump implodes on every front, thereby exponentially increasing the probability of a Democrat Party, (DP), clean sweep in 2020, the DP Presidential candidates are fighting to outdo one another from the left. Those who think they can create a revolution in one election cycle should take a deep breath and stop to think why they are in this powerful position. Donald Trump by divorcing himself from any coherent Republican policy and trying to effect a revolution has smashed the GOP for decades, had the biggest midterm setback since Watergate and allowed the Democrats a clear run. (Bannon predicted that Trumpism would last forever).

This has resulted in an undignified scramble by Uncle Tom Cobley and all for the DP Presidential nomination.

 In the recent vote on the Senate Appropriation Bill which did not include moneys for Trump’s “beautiful  wall” it was left to Bernie Sanders, the passe flag bearer of the left, to be one of the DP Presidential Candidate adults. He and Senators Klobuchar and Brown forcefully argued to support the bipartisan bill to keep open the Government, refuse "The Beautiful Wall" and control the border security allocations. Several other Presidential wannabes grandstanded to show how radical their positions were. The diverse responses of the seven of the probable Senate Presidential candidates in this debate is illustrative of the dilemma facing the DP.

THE BORDER WALL APPROPRIATIONS DEBATE

A bipartisan Bill was passed by both Houses of Congress with massive majorities to refund the Government thereby avoiding a shutdown. The final outcome provoked Trump’s displeasure but he had no choice but to sign it. 

The Bill was an almost total capitulation by the GOP to the Democratic position who compromised very little. To quote Chuck Schumer there was not one cent, let alone the nearly six billion dollars Trump had demanded, for his “beautiful wall”. There was over a billion for 55 miles of fencing. There was agreed upon funds for jacking up general security and provision for more local input as to where barriers were to be placed. In addition Congress overrode Trump’s pay freeze giving Federal workers a 1.7% increase, increased money for humanitarian aid, created alternatives to detention and allocated some aid for Central America, presumably to keep would be illegal immigrants to stay at home. In short total capitulation by the Republicans. 

In spite of all that 4 Democratic Presidential candidates found reason to grandstand and vote against this bill together with 12 diehard Republicans. Kamala Harris, who is the currently the leading Democratic contender patronizingly applauded her Democratic colleagues for their “hard work” but labelled the legislation a “false choice” - too many detention beds in the resolution. She wanted to keep the Government open but she would vote to keep it shut.  Kristin Gillibrand likewise claimed that there was no cap on the number of beds that the Immigration and Customs officials could create. The pair of them were joined by Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren, who has been around long enough to know better.

The prospect of further shutdown and the humiliating defeat of Trump left little doubt in the minds of Presidential contenders Amy Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders. They articulated the rationale for their support in that there was no way they were going to risk the possibility of a repeat of the misery and deprivation that the last shutdown caused. In politics, you have to do what you have to do.

As for the aforementioned four if this is a forerunner of what can be expected on the campaign it can only be hoped that they will be rejected in the Democratic Primaries.

THE DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE

The DP Presidential contenders need reminding that nearly 60% of Democrats’ major criterion in their selection of a nominee is whether or not he or she can beat Trump. They also need reminding that of the 41 pick ups in the mid terms 35 came from middle of the road constituencies. As outlined in last week’s blog, (WHO WILL DEMS CHOOSE TO OPPOSE TRUMP?), about fifty percent of those who consider themselves Democrats do not label themselves liberals. In addition the demographics that contributed to the midterms massacre - included suburban Republican women, independents and most importantly blue collar Obama voters who had voted for Trump in 2016 and returned to the fold. The return of the traditional Democratic base, the blue collar worker, resulted in the pickups in the crucial Mid Western States that had narrowly put Trump over the top in the Electoral College in 2016. 

So while the electorate has definitely moved to the left they are not all liberal millennials that made some of the New York or California gains possible. With this in mind DP contenders must not lumber themselves with baggage that would allow Trump or a Trump wannabe to chew them up in the Presidential election. They should have learned from the Romney campaign that one cannot reinvent yourself after the nomination fight - to quote him “etch a sketch”.

A MANAGEABLE AND LASTING PLATFORM IS WHAT IS NEEDED

Several of the DP contenders, including even Beto O’Rourke, are ignoring the demographics of the DP, and the Independent and disaffected Republican electorate that gave the Party that tsunami victory in the midterms. They are allowing themselves, with the assistance of the media and to the glee of Trump, to elevate the ideas of such as Alexandria Ocasio - Cortez and turn them into the policies that they are running on. Even if one of them wins against a eunuch GOP, they could not, for example, fulfill the promise to abolish the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency. That would mean chaos at the airports as just one effect of this childish suggestion. They can of course reform it. They cannot abolish the whole Medical Insurance Establishment and replace it one election cycle. They should concentrate rather on rescuing what Trump and the Republicans destroyed in Obamacare and finish the job and insure everybody whether it be Medicare available to all or an extension of Obamacare. The latter affords more benefits than Medicare. Then the costs have to be lowered and if Trump, does not carry out his promise to assist in lowering drug prices that’s number one item on the agenda. 

As for yet another slogan “The New Green Deal”, which has no defined interim objectives or means as to how “The Deal” will be enacted in practical terms, the climate policy for now should be reinstatement of The Paris Treaty, reinstating the Obama regulations and supporting States that have moved beyond that. Of course the goal is zero emissions but you have to get there.

These are just a few examples which from the left are as impractical as Bannon’s sweeping “deconstruction” proposals to abolish the whole Federal Government infrastructure including the government’s chief source of income, the Internal Revenue Service. It may have got The Donald elected but the deception didn’t even last to the midterms and has irreparably broken the Republican Party

Crucial to the DP platform are the financial proposals as to how to move towards equity between the 1% and the rest. Once again trickle down economics has proved a failure. The massive tax cuts to the corporations and the rich have just made both richer. With regard to the former they may be needed to make America more competitive and to increase wages and production but that is not what the money was used for. The new found wealth was put to work in share buy backs and other stratagems to make the shareholders more wealthy. 

The individual tax for the top brackets is at a Post World War Two low. What is needed is a coherent  economic approach which gives figures. Some suggestions include an increase in the capital gains tax as recommended by Bill Gates and a wealth tax as mooted by Elizabeth Warren. 

Focussing on direct reforms was the basis of success in the midterms. Nobody promised the moon.

AND THEN THERE WAS THE FAT CAT AMAZON

The only reason that Jay H. Ell is discussing the Amazon deal is because it has been thrown into the debate by the pundits who see the whole issue as emblematic of the fight for the soul of the Democratic Party and as such it is thought it reflects the divisions in the DP nomination race. 

Jay H. Ell is pretty sure that the Amazon deal, which promised 25,000 to 40,000 jobs directly and a slew of indirect business, was well worth 3 billion dollars which would only kick in as tax breaks later on. As self confessed Socialist Mayor De Blasio explained that in addition to the jobs there would be revenue to the City and the State for public projects such as affordable housing worth 27 billion dollars. The fact that the fat cat, 800 billion dollar Amazon extorted the three billion is one thing but to cut off one’s nose because of disgust at the Corporation’s greed may not make sound sense. There have to better ways to protest the venality of corporations then to chuck them and their jobs out. Taking this argument to its logical conclusion very few people would be working in America and all the corporations would be in South East Asia.

The New York Democratic politicians, (The Establishment), that negotiated the deal have maintained that it was well worth it. Amazon doesn’t really give two hoots where their next headquarters might be and the last fight on earth they are looking for is with the local population. So chalk this up as a victory in principle. The good news is that those jobs and benefits are not lost to the American working class, they will just be in another area.

If the Amazon deal is indeed an ideological battle for the Democrat's hearts and minds it is not across the country it is in one section of New York for G-d sakes. There aren’t too many other areas that would have thrown the opportunity for all those jobs out.

THE HISTORY OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY

It is pertinent to reflect on the evolution of American Democracy in the light of those who wish to revolutionize society in one election cycle.  American democracy was born out of Jefferson's Declaration of Independence, the American Constitution stewarded by his disciple Madison and Jefferson’s subsequent Presidency. Jefferson’s liberal democracy, spawned by the Age of Enlightenment has been regarded as the forerunner of modern day democratic government in America and a large part of the world. 

Now Jeffersonian democracy tolerated slavery, which was only abolished by Lincoln’s civil war nearly a hundred years later. Neither did his “We The People and their Inalienable Rights” include the native Indians who were virtually wiped out as they attempted to stem the tide of American expansionism. It never included women who finally received the franchise in1920. African Americans needed to wait till 1964 to officially have segregation ended, (the abrogation of their “inalienable rights”), and only a year later were the discriminatory practices related to their franchise finally declared illegal. Needless to say the battle against voter suppression hasn’t finally been won. By the way, just for the record, Jefferson’s “We The People” didn’t even include all the white males, only the land owners. 

It should be pointed out that the failure to include the indigenous peoples and not to end slavery in the new Republic haunted The Founders. Washington knew it would be “a stain” on their legacy. In his will he released his slaves. Jefferson initially wanted to include abolishing slavery in the establishment of the Republic but was quickly disabused of the idea. So while they compromised they at least created  the blueprint which allowed transformation to occur.

So change, progress and reform sadly takes forever. Reform is an evolutionary process. It is often fiercely resisted even by those who would benefit by it. To cite a modern day example Obamacare benefited the rural South and blue collared workers more than any other demographic. Yet they were easily persuaded that this reform threatened their rights and only six years later did the importance to access to healthcare garner their attention. 

Revolutionary change, although ostensibly it creates an immediate impact rarely produces long lasting results whether achieved by force or not. Iraq didn’t immediately become democratic as a result of the Bush Government’s simplistic solution for a “cure” -invasion and topple Saddam Hussein. What would be Plato’s original archetype of reform, The French Revolution, gave birth to yet another dictatorship under Emperor Napoleon. Nor did the Marxist/Leninist revolution produce the Nirvana promised. 

For those not as yet convinced compulsory reading is Nelson Mandela’s Long Walk To Freedom. Then go and see the movie “Invictus” where after his inauguration as the first post apartheid president he garnered support for the white pro apartheid Afrikaner’s rugby team because he thought it would help unify the country. This after being imprisoned 27 years for his manifesto of freedom, equality and justice. South Africa is still far from Mandela’s vision, having taken steps back after he left the scene. It is indeed a “Long Walk”.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Reformers, protestors and activists are essential to right wrongs and to reshape society. Rarely are the activists good politicians as the former have the luxury of being pure and the latter have to compromise. Broadly speaking the activists have influence while the politicians have power. Nobody understood this better than Martin Luther King whose activism and protest resulted in the major political change in America in the second half of the twentieth century. 

For lasting change it takes buy in from the body politic and that is an exasperatingly arduous and slow process. So while leaders must lead they have to also need to win and maintain support from their body politic. 

Whoever follows Trump into the WhiteHouse will have to reconstitute the whole bureaucracy of Federal Government. He has gutted every agency including, for example, the staff to detect a nuclear attack. Michael Lewis in his book, The Fifth Risk, has documented the whole disaster. There is also the burgeoning record national debt that will have to be worked on. 

With all this in mind the Democratic Presidential nomination race should be an adult endeavor not a childish fight as to who can go furthest to the left. The victor of the latter type of a campaign will surely win New York and California by bigger margins but not too much else. Then even if elected President he or she will be unable to effect change beyond the midterms of 2022 and very little if anything will have been achieved other than another convulsion that will evoke an equal and opposite response.