TRUMP: COHEN ADVANCES THE MUELLER NARRATIVE

While Donald Trump, the President of the United States of America was on the other side of the planet lauding and declaring his love for his newest best friend, Kim Jong Un, who was in fact a cruel brutal dictator guilty of mass murder and public executions, the House Oversight Committee, was recalling that Trump had threatened their witness, Michael Cohen, and his family thereby imperiling their safety. Cohen was interspersing this public hearing between two closed door meetings with the Intelligence Committees of both the Senate and the House.

Trump was left impotent as his former sycophantic ‘fixer’ was now in a position to help bring him down  - a situation that his newest best friend would allegedly resolve simply by killing Cohen - a risk, according to Oversight Chairman Cummings that Cohen now faced, in prison, since Trump had tweeted that he was a "rat which in mob terms is code for a snitch. 

The central message from the House Oversight Committee’s hearing was the fact that Donald Trump’s dire legal jeopardy was increased by his former confidant and lawyer. Cohen’s evidence was yet another nail in the Trump coffin which Mueller is so carefully crafting with the assistance of the Southern New York Attorney General’s Office. Jay H. Ell believes that everything that Cohen revealed in the dramatic hearing can be corroborated by the Federal prosecutors. Cohen was obviously carefully prepped for his public appearance. 

Overhanging the Trump Presidency is still the fact that to this day he has never acknowledged the most fundamental issue of this whole sordid episode, namely that Russia attacked American democracy. The POTUS’S only emphatic statement on the subject is his backing of Putin’s “strong” denial of Russia’s culpability at their joint press conference, following his one on one meeting with the Russian Premier, in Helsinki. 

THE DRAMA SURROUNDING COHEN’S TESTIMONY

The juxtaposition of the Trump and Cohen encounters was not lost on the witness who reported that the POTUS had confessed to him that he had dodged the draft in the Vietnam war and, ironically he had now returned to that country via Airforce One. Nor could the fact that the media was covering Cohen wall to wall and not the President, the world’s most famous reality star, have passed unnoticed by Trump. He will be furious when he learns that every TV in the WhiteHouse was full blast on the Congress hearing where his Administration was learning of the strong case the prosecutors must have on Trump and his close family.  

Cohen’s compelling and convincing character assassination of his former Boss as a racist, conman and a cheat was characterized by his respectful answers, studied understatement and admissions of what he had no knowledge off, thereby lending credibility to his testimony. What underscored Cohen’s reliability was the fact that he had everything to lose if he lied, the consequence being that he could increase his prison sentence. 

What every observer noted was that no GOP legislator questioned that Trump was responsible for any of the alleged criminal and anti social actions rather they simply attacked, sometimes childishly, Cohen as a convicted liar. What the GOP Trump apologists forgot was that several of Cohen’s lies were at Trump’s behest. Their behavior stood in stark contrast to the Republicans in the bipartisan Watergate hearings which was epitomized by Howard Baker, the Senate Republican Minority leader, who summarized Nixon’s possible culpability in a phrase, “What did the President know and when did he know it”. 

The Republican assault was skillfully parried by an ashamed Cohen who accepted his guilt and the resultant punishment. He then offered the Republican Congressmen some gratuitous advice informing them that he did, for ten years, what they were doing, namely blindly defending Trump, and that the outcome if they continued would be that they would land in the same mess that he was now in.

COHEN'S TESTIMONY OF TRUMP'S COLLUSION, THEREBY ADVANCING THE MUELLER MANDATE

As Jay H. Ell argued in his last blog, (TRUMP: THE ANATOMY OF SAVING THE REPUBLIC), that Mueller is slowly but surely leaking his report. The latest release being what he allowed Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer and “fixer” to relay to Congress. Ostensibly Cohen was not allowed to speak directly about the “Russian Investigation” but in fact he gave tantalizing evidence of Trump’s knowledge of “collusion” with Russia in addition to other crimes. 

Cohen’s public appearance followed his classified evidence to the Senate Intelligence Committee, the day before, which obviously included “Russia”. Senator Warner, the ranking Democratic member, commented after the classified Cohen meeting, that two years ago he maintained that the Russian Investigation would be the most important issue he would ever have to deal with and this had now been confirmed. 

It is important to note that Cohen’s testimony followed the bombshell revelations of the former Deputy FBI Director, Andrew McCabe, in interviews and best seller book, The Threat McCabe crucially reported that Trump believed Russia’s Putin over his whole intelligence establishment. For those with short memories McCabe’s divulgements were preceded by the indictments of The Donald's long time associate Roger Stone. Mueller’s prosecutors told the court that they had evidence of Stone’s conspiring with Wikileaks and Julian Assange. 

THE LEGAL JEOPARDY FACING TRUMP FOLLOWING THE COHEN TESTIMONY

Besides providing evidence that Trump Inc was a criminal enterprise similar to a Mob endeavor, there was verifiable evidence, backed by documents submitted by Cohen to the Committee as exhibits, that there was tax, insurance and bank fraud. Cohen also referenced that there were ongoing criminal investigations into Trump and his organization by the Southern District of New York Federal Office. Then there was incontrovertible evidence that Trump was guilty, as alleged, for campaign finance violations as outlined  in Cohen’s guilty plea and that he had instructed his former lawyer. Moreover Cohen provided documentary evidence of a cover up of this crime.

Then there was statements off suborning of perjury, (persuading a witness to lie), with regard to one of the possible motives for Trump’s alleged conspiracy with Russia. Cohen confessed that he had lied to the Senate Committee at Trump’s behest. The lies that he had pled guilty to in an indictment where the Prosecutors had implicated Trump as a "co - conspirator".  

Cohen disclosed that the negotiations with regard to the Moscow Trump Tower had concluded well after the nomination of The Donald as the Republican Presidential candidate, which was the narrative that Trump had publicly punted. Most disconcerting was the fact that Trump lawyers had edited Cohen’s statement to the Senate investigating committee in regard to the Moscow Trump Tower endeavor. This was one of the crimes that Cohen was going to jail for. Cohen alluded to six meetings he had with candidate Trump with regard to the progress of the Moscow Trump Tower project while Trump was ranting at his Nuremberg style rallies that he had no ongoing business with Russia.

Cohen confirmed the extensive relationship of Trump with a Felix Sater, a shady character with links to the Russian mafia. Trump had previously stated, under oath, that he wouldn’t even recognize Mr. Sater if he was sitting in the same room as him. The former Trump lawyer confirmed that Sater had an office next to Trump’s in the New York Trump Tower. It is on the record that Sater partnered Trump in a Trump Tower enterprise in Soho. He was also the go to man in the Moscow endeavor directly negotiating with the Putin administration and Russian banks. Sater was on record that the Moscow deal would get Trump elected President!.  He had business cards which indicated that he was a Senior Advisor to the Trump Organization. He was negotiating up until till the Presidential election. The significance of the Sater references, besides providing more evidence that Mr. Trump was a liar was establishing the Moscow Tower proposal as one of the possible motives for Trump’s alleged Russian “collusion”. 

Then there was the persuasive narrative that if proven would show that Trump was part of the Russian conspiracy against the USA. The former Consiglieri detailed a phone call from Roger Stone, who Trump put on speaker, where his long time confidant informed him that the Wikileaks founder had imparted to him when the dump of damaging Hillary Clinton’s e mails would take place. Trump had acknowledged the message with glee.

Less conclusive was Cohen’s connecting an overheard statement, by Donald Junior to the POTUS, on June 26, prior to the Trump Tower meeting with the Russians. Donald Junior had loudly whispered to his father that, the now infamous, meeting would take place. Although the date and circumstances of the confab between father and son were highly suspicious it is more than stretch to claim that was confirmative of a conspiracy with the Russians. The statement by Cohen that nothing happened within Trump’s orbit that Trump didn’t control may well be true but that doesn’t prove that he was fully apprized of the meeting with Russian operatives to get dirt on Hillary Clinton. Steve Bannon’s contention that there is no way that Donald Jnr. would not have colluded with his father on the treasonous meeting again is not going to persuade any jury that Trump Snr was implicated. However Jay H. Ell is more than convinced that there is other more substantial corroborative evidence of Cohen’s allegations. He believes that Cohen would have not have alluded to the event if Mueller did not have other ancillary affirmation that that Trump had afore knowledge. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

There are a lot more shoes to drop in the criminal enterprise that represents Donald J. Trump Inc as well as his and his campaign’s involvement in conspiring with Russia against the USA. It still dosen't register with the POTUS what havoc the Democratic controlled Congress can wreek with their oversight hearings.

Watch this space as day by day the noose tightens around the POTUS. Some of the probes will be ongoing and will continue long past Trump is out of office.

Nothing Cohen said in the hearing will convince Trump’s base to abandon him. There needs to be more revelations in public that he and his campaign conspired with Russia. The irresponsible GOP legislators sticking with the POTUS reassure the faithful that these allegations, however well corroborated, are just part of the Dark State conspiracy against the President and that there is “no collusion”.

There will be a big fanfare as Trump hails his abortive summit in North Korea as a victory as he will the ultimate trade deal with China, whatever it turns about to be. 

What will begin to bite into the faithful’s unconditional loyalty will be the realization that his tax breaks to the rich didn’t include them as their refunds from the Internal Revenue Service don’t match last year’s. The Midwest that gave him his narrow victory have already flipped in the midterms when the factories never returned and the mines didn’t reopen. 

Trump is hanging in there in the hope that he cannot be impeached while the Republicans blindly back him and in the belief that he cannot be indicted while in office and that will last through a second term which still could happen if the Democrats put up someone who is totally unelectable. He will argue the principle better the devil you know…….

TRUMP: THE ANATOMY OF SAVING THE REPUBLIC

As more and more of the Russian scandal evolves a number of key factors have emerged: 

Before even the 45th President’s inauguration there was flat panic, fully justified in retrospect, in Obama’s WhiteHouse, the FBI and the Justice Department that sustained attempts would be made to sweep the attack by Russia on American Democracy under the table. Representatives of all the aforementioned constituencies took emergency measures to see that what had been learned thus far would be recorded and available for prosperity; 

From the word go Trump recognized the threat the investigation posed to him and responded on two levels - on the one hand, politically to mercilessly attack the probe as the workings of the “dark state” and on the other to do all in his power to stop it; 

Through a succession of indictments, cooperating witnesses, books by journalists and insiders and most recently former Deputy FBI Director McCabe, fortuitous leaks to the media from insiders all covered extensively with investigation and comment by the media - the Special Counsel Bob Mueller was seen to have painstakingly revealed a pattern that there was a systemized pattern of “collusion” between the Trump Campaign and Russia. In the process there was evidence of Trump's blatant obstruction of justice and felony charges relating to election finance.

With the Court Cases well on their way - with some terminated and investigations into Trump’s Inaugural Committee and Business’s continuing, oversight of the Trump Criminal Enterprise just beginning in the House of Representatives with his Consiglieri Michael Cohen about to give open testimony, all that remains is the final act - to show that Trump knew about all the “collusion” and that there was a quid pro relationship between Russia and him. 

As yet Mueller has not revealed his trump card - Richard Gates, the Deputy Campaign Director of Trump’s campaign, who probably knows even more than Paul Manafort as he remained in the Campaign after the latter had left. Maybe Gates will not be charged and what he has to detail will be in the report. Maybe there will be indictments of the President in the Southern New York Federal Office, who might not feel restrained by “Justice Department Policy” not to indict a sitting President or by the State of New York Attorney General which is totally independent of Trump and the Federal apparatus.

One fact America can take to the bank is that the report and its findings will eventually see the light of day by one means or another. Throughout, these brave public servants, who have born abuse, threats and financial deprivation have sought to uncover the most serious threat to the integrity of the American democracy since the Cold War. If they, from the word go, went to extraordinary lengths to keep a secret record there is little doubt that they have taken contingency plans to protect their subsequent crucial work. 

Finally, there is speculation as to why Mueller is winding up his probe just as a new Attorney General has been ratified by Congress. There are some that posit that Attorney General Barr has terminated the probe. That is highly unlikely given his public assurances, under oath, that he wouldn’t. The danger with Barr is that he wouldn’t guarantee that he would reveal all of Mueller’s findings. Whatever the fears related to Trump’s Attorney General appointee, Mueller, Jay H. Ell believes, was taking no chances and is working at break neck speed to conclude his mission. He knows that it can be subpoenaed by Congress as was Watergate Special Prosecutor Leon Jaworski’s report was and that it is too late for Trump to put his hand in the dyke .  

THE REVELATIONS CONTINUE AND THE PROBE CONSOLIDATES THE CONSPIRACY

It is obvious that Mueller knows far more than he reveals in public. This is part of his strength. He has informants right front and center to Trump himself - Michael Flynn, Richard Gates, and Michael Cohen. Added to that he has Richard Pecker of the National Enquirer and Alan Wiesellberg, the Trump Organization’s Chief Financial Advisor. Manafort cooperated till he realized that he would be corroborating the conclusive proof of a conspiracy and cried “uncle”. With all that and all the intelligence and counter intelligence information including from other countries to help fill in the blanks Mueller and his team must already have all the answers. Nevertheless it does not take a genius to look at the bricks he has laid out already to build a wall that represents “conspiracy”.

The New York Times ran a detailed article on the prima facie case against Trump for Obstruction of Justice once again reminding all of the humiliation, intimidation , massive stress and pressure Trump placed on those who were attempting to investigate the Russian act of war. A new shock allegation was that the POTUS instructed his Acting Attorney General Whitaker to change the prosecutor to his choice in the Cohen case, a former legal partner of his TV lawyer, Rudi Giuliani. 

The Washington Post stated that Mueller had produced three hundred pages of a report in dribs and drabs. This he did with indictments, court documents, plea agreements and sentencing recommendations, letting the country know step by step as he built up the case that Russia hacked and intervened in favor of Donald Trump and against Hillary Clinton and that members of his campaign had met with Russians. From the get go Mueller, on February 18, 2018 indicted Russian internet agencies and some of their employees for "conspiring to defraud the US". He followed that up on July 18 indicted 12 Russian Agents working for the KGB successor organization GRU for inter alia “Conspiracy to Commit an Offense Against the USA”. At this stage he had already indicted George Papadopolous, Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, Richard Pinedo and Alex van Der Swann. Most significantly on July 13, he indicted Constantin Kilimnik, a Russian oligarch as an alleged GRU agent for “Conspiracy to Commit an Offense Against the USA”.

Then on September 14 Michael Cohen was indicted for false statements to Congress and the same date he indicted Paul Manafort for “Conspiracy to Commit an Offense Against the USA”.

The latest indictment to close the circle came on January 25, 2019 when Roger Stone, life long confidant and advisor to Trump and former partner of Manafort was charged for making false statements and obstruction of justice. 

So Mueller has vast evidence of the Russian hacking, of at least two major meetings where Trump campaign agents met with the Russians  - The Trump Tower Meeting and a meeting in a cigar club where Manafort, Constantin Kilimnik, (who is in constant communication with oligarch Deripaska who is close to Vladmir Putin), and Rick Gates. Now he brings to public view that Trump’s “Russia are You Listening” may not be so innocent as Trump pretended. 

Trump's long time confidant, Roger Stone, is alleged to be the contact between Russian hackers and Wikileaks, Lest this just be conjecture Stone bragged about this in public while Trump forecast “major revelations” in anticipation, it is alleged, of a Wikileaks dump. The cherry on the top is that corroborated Cohen evidence points to ongoing negotiations of the venture of a Trump Tower in Moscow. Gates has got to be able to provide what is already publicly surmised that the changing of the Republican Platform on Russian sanctions came from Trump himself.

BACKGROUND TO THIS ALL

The Steele Document which was the earliest uncorroborated evidence of Trump’s Russian involvement has thus far not been negated. The media revelations of the meetings of Trump Campaign members with Russians and most damningly Trump’s own actions and sayings himself provide a pretty strong case against his own cry on “no collusion”. 

Scariest to anyone with insight as to how these investigations work is that they don’t bring in “targets”. In that vein none of Trump’s children or his son in law Jared Kushner have been questioned by the Special Counsel. It is no secret that Mueller has conducted his investigation akin to the procedure followed in a mob cleanup - working his way from bottom to top and collecting plea deals. Andrew McCabe on one of his interviews on his devastating revelations in “The Threat - How The FBI Protects America In The Age Of Terror and Trump”, stated that he has never known of a situation where the Mob Boss didn’t have knowledge of the actions of his underlings. 

Lest anyone forget American Intelligence has been investigating the Russian involvement since at least the middle of the Trump campaign. When Trump fired Comey they already had enough information to believe that his decision warranted opening a counter intelligence investigation into whether Trump was a witting or unwitting asset of a major foreign adversary.

What was particularly revealing by Andrew McCabe was the fact that he had briefed the majority and minority leaders of the Senate and the House of Representatives and the heads of Intelligence Committees of both parties as to the investigations taking place. This had to include the counter investigation into whether Trump was a Russian asset. The Intelligence teams including the CIA also gave the politicians all the classified information as to the Russian interference in favor of Trump. In spite of this, the Republican legislators have continued, unabashed, backing up Trump’s assertion that he was a victim of “The Dark State” and the rogue FBI all orchestrated by Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

WHAT NOW?

The Democratic House are going to fill in all the blanks and they need to investigate publicly. The Watergate committees in their hearings in the Senate and the House educated the voters to Nixon’s skulduggery. Most of what has gone on to date has been behind closed doors, in plea deals and redacted court proceedings. 

One way or another the Mueller report will see daylight. The champions of democracy in the Department of Justice have not withstood all this harassment to allow their efforts not to achieve what they set out to do - save the Republic. 

The Republican legislators to date have been a disgrace. They seemed to have buried their consciences at McCain’s funeral. Incidentally, the latter must have known that his former buddy Lindsey Graham was about to sell his soul - what else can explain why he didn’t include him to eulogize their relationship at his funeral. Did Romney really resuscitate his political career to become voting fodder for Trump and his lickspittle Mitch McConnell? The latter’s infamy is already sealed in history. If this sad pathetic lot need reminding the Senate Committee on Watergate unanimously referred the whole matter to the House to investigate the impeachment of Richard Nixon. The bipartisan Senate investigative activities lead to the indictment of 40 members of Nixon’s Administration and those involved in the Watergate burglary and conspiracy. 

The 16 investigations into Trump and his activities continue as Trump's tweets from the bunker inbetween receiving "advice" from Vladmir Putin.

When the history of this sickening episode is written it will be the fearless American institutions that saved the day - the FBI, Intelligence Agencies, the Media and the Judiciary, (with the verdict still out on the Supreme Court).

AS TRUMP IMPLODES WHO ARE THE DEMOCRAT ADULTS?

While Trump implodes on every front, thereby exponentially increasing the probability of a Democrat Party, (DP), clean sweep in 2020, the DP Presidential candidates are fighting to outdo one another from the left. Those who think they can create a revolution in one election cycle should take a deep breath and stop to think why they are in this powerful position. Donald Trump by divorcing himself from any coherent Republican policy and trying to effect a revolution has smashed the GOP for decades, had the biggest midterm setback since Watergate and allowed the Democrats a clear run. (Bannon predicted that Trumpism would last forever).

This has resulted in an undignified scramble by Uncle Tom Cobley and all for the DP Presidential nomination.

 In the recent vote on the Senate Appropriation Bill which did not include moneys for Trump’s “beautiful  wall” it was left to Bernie Sanders, the passe flag bearer of the left, to be one of the DP Presidential Candidate adults. He and Senators Klobuchar and Brown forcefully argued to support the bipartisan bill to keep open the Government, refuse "The Beautiful Wall" and control the border security allocations. Several other Presidential wannabes grandstanded to show how radical their positions were. The diverse responses of the seven of the probable Senate Presidential candidates in this debate is illustrative of the dilemma facing the DP.

THE BORDER WALL APPROPRIATIONS DEBATE

A bipartisan Bill was passed by both Houses of Congress with massive majorities to refund the Government thereby avoiding a shutdown. The final outcome provoked Trump’s displeasure but he had no choice but to sign it. 

The Bill was an almost total capitulation by the GOP to the Democratic position who compromised very little. To quote Chuck Schumer there was not one cent, let alone the nearly six billion dollars Trump had demanded, for his “beautiful wall”. There was over a billion for 55 miles of fencing. There was agreed upon funds for jacking up general security and provision for more local input as to where barriers were to be placed. In addition Congress overrode Trump’s pay freeze giving Federal workers a 1.7% increase, increased money for humanitarian aid, created alternatives to detention and allocated some aid for Central America, presumably to keep would be illegal immigrants to stay at home. In short total capitulation by the Republicans. 

In spite of all that 4 Democratic Presidential candidates found reason to grandstand and vote against this bill together with 12 diehard Republicans. Kamala Harris, who is the currently the leading Democratic contender patronizingly applauded her Democratic colleagues for their “hard work” but labelled the legislation a “false choice” - too many detention beds in the resolution. She wanted to keep the Government open but she would vote to keep it shut.  Kristin Gillibrand likewise claimed that there was no cap on the number of beds that the Immigration and Customs officials could create. The pair of them were joined by Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren, who has been around long enough to know better.

The prospect of further shutdown and the humiliating defeat of Trump left little doubt in the minds of Presidential contenders Amy Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders. They articulated the rationale for their support in that there was no way they were going to risk the possibility of a repeat of the misery and deprivation that the last shutdown caused. In politics, you have to do what you have to do.

As for the aforementioned four if this is a forerunner of what can be expected on the campaign it can only be hoped that they will be rejected in the Democratic Primaries.

THE DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE

The DP Presidential contenders need reminding that nearly 60% of Democrats’ major criterion in their selection of a nominee is whether or not he or she can beat Trump. They also need reminding that of the 41 pick ups in the mid terms 35 came from middle of the road constituencies. As outlined in last week’s blog, (WHO WILL DEMS CHOOSE TO OPPOSE TRUMP?), about fifty percent of those who consider themselves Democrats do not label themselves liberals. In addition the demographics that contributed to the midterms massacre - included suburban Republican women, independents and most importantly blue collar Obama voters who had voted for Trump in 2016 and returned to the fold. The return of the traditional Democratic base, the blue collar worker, resulted in the pickups in the crucial Mid Western States that had narrowly put Trump over the top in the Electoral College in 2016. 

So while the electorate has definitely moved to the left they are not all liberal millennials that made some of the New York or California gains possible. With this in mind DP contenders must not lumber themselves with baggage that would allow Trump or a Trump wannabe to chew them up in the Presidential election. They should have learned from the Romney campaign that one cannot reinvent yourself after the nomination fight - to quote him “etch a sketch”.

A MANAGEABLE AND LASTING PLATFORM IS WHAT IS NEEDED

Several of the DP contenders, including even Beto O’Rourke, are ignoring the demographics of the DP, and the Independent and disaffected Republican electorate that gave the Party that tsunami victory in the midterms. They are allowing themselves, with the assistance of the media and to the glee of Trump, to elevate the ideas of such as Alexandria Ocasio - Cortez and turn them into the policies that they are running on. Even if one of them wins against a eunuch GOP, they could not, for example, fulfill the promise to abolish the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency. That would mean chaos at the airports as just one effect of this childish suggestion. They can of course reform it. They cannot abolish the whole Medical Insurance Establishment and replace it one election cycle. They should concentrate rather on rescuing what Trump and the Republicans destroyed in Obamacare and finish the job and insure everybody whether it be Medicare available to all or an extension of Obamacare. The latter affords more benefits than Medicare. Then the costs have to be lowered and if Trump, does not carry out his promise to assist in lowering drug prices that’s number one item on the agenda. 

As for yet another slogan “The New Green Deal”, which has no defined interim objectives or means as to how “The Deal” will be enacted in practical terms, the climate policy for now should be reinstatement of The Paris Treaty, reinstating the Obama regulations and supporting States that have moved beyond that. Of course the goal is zero emissions but you have to get there.

These are just a few examples which from the left are as impractical as Bannon’s sweeping “deconstruction” proposals to abolish the whole Federal Government infrastructure including the government’s chief source of income, the Internal Revenue Service. It may have got The Donald elected but the deception didn’t even last to the midterms and has irreparably broken the Republican Party

Crucial to the DP platform are the financial proposals as to how to move towards equity between the 1% and the rest. Once again trickle down economics has proved a failure. The massive tax cuts to the corporations and the rich have just made both richer. With regard to the former they may be needed to make America more competitive and to increase wages and production but that is not what the money was used for. The new found wealth was put to work in share buy backs and other stratagems to make the shareholders more wealthy. 

The individual tax for the top brackets is at a Post World War Two low. What is needed is a coherent  economic approach which gives figures. Some suggestions include an increase in the capital gains tax as recommended by Bill Gates and a wealth tax as mooted by Elizabeth Warren. 

Focussing on direct reforms was the basis of success in the midterms. Nobody promised the moon.

AND THEN THERE WAS THE FAT CAT AMAZON

The only reason that Jay H. Ell is discussing the Amazon deal is because it has been thrown into the debate by the pundits who see the whole issue as emblematic of the fight for the soul of the Democratic Party and as such it is thought it reflects the divisions in the DP nomination race. 

Jay H. Ell is pretty sure that the Amazon deal, which promised 25,000 to 40,000 jobs directly and a slew of indirect business, was well worth 3 billion dollars which would only kick in as tax breaks later on. As self confessed Socialist Mayor De Blasio explained that in addition to the jobs there would be revenue to the City and the State for public projects such as affordable housing worth 27 billion dollars. The fact that the fat cat, 800 billion dollar Amazon extorted the three billion is one thing but to cut off one’s nose because of disgust at the Corporation’s greed may not make sound sense. There have to better ways to protest the venality of corporations then to chuck them and their jobs out. Taking this argument to its logical conclusion very few people would be working in America and all the corporations would be in South East Asia.

The New York Democratic politicians, (The Establishment), that negotiated the deal have maintained that it was well worth it. Amazon doesn’t really give two hoots where their next headquarters might be and the last fight on earth they are looking for is with the local population. So chalk this up as a victory in principle. The good news is that those jobs and benefits are not lost to the American working class, they will just be in another area.

If the Amazon deal is indeed an ideological battle for the Democrat's hearts and minds it is not across the country it is in one section of New York for G-d sakes. There aren’t too many other areas that would have thrown the opportunity for all those jobs out.

THE HISTORY OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY

It is pertinent to reflect on the evolution of American Democracy in the light of those who wish to revolutionize society in one election cycle.  American democracy was born out of Jefferson's Declaration of Independence, the American Constitution stewarded by his disciple Madison and Jefferson’s subsequent Presidency. Jefferson’s liberal democracy, spawned by the Age of Enlightenment has been regarded as the forerunner of modern day democratic government in America and a large part of the world. 

Now Jeffersonian democracy tolerated slavery, which was only abolished by Lincoln’s civil war nearly a hundred years later. Neither did his “We The People and their Inalienable Rights” include the native Indians who were virtually wiped out as they attempted to stem the tide of American expansionism. It never included women who finally received the franchise in1920. African Americans needed to wait till 1964 to officially have segregation ended, (the abrogation of their “inalienable rights”), and only a year later were the discriminatory practices related to their franchise finally declared illegal. Needless to say the battle against voter suppression hasn’t finally been won. By the way, just for the record, Jefferson’s “We The People” didn’t even include all the white males, only the land owners. 

It should be pointed out that the failure to include the indigenous peoples and not to end slavery in the new Republic haunted The Founders. Washington knew it would be “a stain” on their legacy. In his will he released his slaves. Jefferson initially wanted to include abolishing slavery in the establishment of the Republic but was quickly disabused of the idea. So while they compromised they at least created  the blueprint which allowed transformation to occur.

So change, progress and reform sadly takes forever. Reform is an evolutionary process. It is often fiercely resisted even by those who would benefit by it. To cite a modern day example Obamacare benefited the rural South and blue collared workers more than any other demographic. Yet they were easily persuaded that this reform threatened their rights and only six years later did the importance to access to healthcare garner their attention. 

Revolutionary change, although ostensibly it creates an immediate impact rarely produces long lasting results whether achieved by force or not. Iraq didn’t immediately become democratic as a result of the Bush Government’s simplistic solution for a “cure” -invasion and topple Saddam Hussein. What would be Plato’s original archetype of reform, The French Revolution, gave birth to yet another dictatorship under Emperor Napoleon. Nor did the Marxist/Leninist revolution produce the Nirvana promised. 

For those not as yet convinced compulsory reading is Nelson Mandela’s Long Walk To Freedom. Then go and see the movie “Invictus” where after his inauguration as the first post apartheid president he garnered support for the white pro apartheid Afrikaner’s rugby team because he thought it would help unify the country. This after being imprisoned 27 years for his manifesto of freedom, equality and justice. South Africa is still far from Mandela’s vision, having taken steps back after he left the scene. It is indeed a “Long Walk”.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Reformers, protestors and activists are essential to right wrongs and to reshape society. Rarely are the activists good politicians as the former have the luxury of being pure and the latter have to compromise. Broadly speaking the activists have influence while the politicians have power. Nobody understood this better than Martin Luther King whose activism and protest resulted in the major political change in America in the second half of the twentieth century. 

For lasting change it takes buy in from the body politic and that is an exasperatingly arduous and slow process. So while leaders must lead they have to also need to win and maintain support from their body politic. 

Whoever follows Trump into the WhiteHouse will have to reconstitute the whole bureaucracy of Federal Government. He has gutted every agency including, for example, the staff to detect a nuclear attack. Michael Lewis in his book, The Fifth Risk, has documented the whole disaster. There is also the burgeoning record national debt that will have to be worked on. 

With all this in mind the Democratic Presidential nomination race should be an adult endeavor not a childish fight as to who can go furthest to the left. The victor of the latter type of a campaign will surely win New York and California by bigger margins but not too much else. Then even if elected President he or she will be unable to effect change beyond the midterms of 2022 and very little if anything will have been achieved other than another convulsion that will evoke an equal and opposite response.