It wouldn’t be hyperbole to argue that the walls are collapsing around the Trump Criminal Enterprise which now includes the Presidency of the United States. Nor is it an exaggeration to contend that the Republican Party that he represents, in its pathetic desperate desire to cling to power, has lost its moral compass. Almost by default this will result in the baton of constructive government, in the 116th Congress passing onto the opposition Democratic Party who now control the main legislative chamber, The House of Representatives. The Democrats should be extremely careful and responsible in using the opportunity to institute reform and reset the country’s direction. The temptation to concentrate on Trump and their own Presidential nomination race must be avoided and not take preference over the legislative imperatives.
Those who wield power need to take into account that the planet is facing problems such as climate change, widening disparities between the rich and the poor which together with crime and civil unrest is resulting in mass emigration, the terrifying burgeoning internet and artificial intelligence operation, nuclear proliferation and balancing the increasing trade across the globe creating interdependency beween countries. All these dilemmas cannot be resolved nation by nation but only by global cooperation. America as the richest and most powerful nation in the world must resume its leadership on these pressing issues as well as being the standard bearer for democratic values. The Democratic Party needs to press the reset button in this endeavor.
Overhanging the 116th Congress will be the President and his Administration’s legal woes with the threat of impeachment which will hinge on the revelations of the Mueller report. The Democratic leadership have wisely, for the time being, taken the political removal of the POTUS off the table. While investigation of Trump and his family will proceed the immediate priorities will be Immigration, health care issues, infrastructure, all of which are possible areas for bipartisanship. It is imagined that the Democrats will push for “Medicare For All” legislation but at the end of the day they might have to settle for drug pricing regulations, protection of those with preexisting conditions and reaffirming the provisions of Obamacare.
THE TASK TO RIGHT THE SHIP WILL BE HARD BUT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
All in all effecting legislation with control of only one chamber is a tall order that cannot be undertaken by a business as usual approach which a cynical, disheartened and disinterested electorate has come to expect. The task to right the ship is that much harder in America as there is a separation of the power structures. Thus to achieve lasting progress bipartisanship is required. The advent of the Trump Presidency with the slavish adherence of the Republican Party to go along with his venal, amoral and, dare Jay H. Ell say, anti American enterprise has made cooperation between the parties that much more difficult.
Understandably there will be a temptation to deepen the partisan divide that Senate leader McConnell unashamedly effected to rush through the Trump judicial agenda. The Democrats could then claim that they tried to deliver but were stymied by the GOP who defied the will of the people. But that will just exacerbate the current dysfunction and lead the hopeful electorate that ushered in the diverse Congress to stay home in 2020.
The objective is to find common ground. This task is paramount for the future as well as the likelihood of the Democrats having a meaningful majority in the Senate under current constitutional provisions is remote. Gridlock has the potential to always be the default position as the Republicans, even with an ever decreasing share of the electorate, will always have a say as long as Wyoming with a population of 600,000 and California with 40,000,000 have an equal number of Senators. So even after 2020 the Senate will only have a small majority for one or other party.
Nevertheless the midterms have afforded the Democrats plenty of leverage. Put another way no legislation can see the light of day without them. For example Trump needs them to ratify his Trade agreements. Also a reasonable bipartisan immigration act was dead on arrival in the 115th Congress because the Republicans in the House of Representatives refused the Senate compromise is now an option. The Senate passed a bipartisan deal which Paul Ryan refused to bring to the floor because he couldn’t get a majority of his caucus to go along with it. Then there is the ailing infrastructure which Trump and the Democrats are ad idem on. Pelosi however will want to couple that with an increase in income tax on the top one percent to pay for it.
The Republican initiative to ditch Obamacare has finally had success insofar as twenty Republican State Attorney Generals have succeeded in persuading a Federal Court that the Obamacare health care act is unconstitutional. However the GOP lead by Trump, confronted by the electorate’s strong support for Obamacare in the midterms, switched positions arguing that they were best positioned to protect the act. Trump on hearing the court decision tweeted that Obamacare will remain in place while this decision is appealed. All this portends to the enactment of legislation that will entrench the right for access to all for healthcare - something the 115th Republican Congress would never have allowed.
NEW DEMOCRATIC LEGISLATORS
The new diverse class of Democrats are highly motivated and sincere in their commitment at reforming government and meeting their constituencies' needs. For the most part they won Primaries and then ousted Republican incumbents. They need to be supported and nourished as they are soon to learn the hierarchical nature of politics and its frustrations. They can easily become disillusioned as they make the transition from being front and central in a local election to just one of four hundred and thirty - five members of Congress on the national scene. They have already come to terms with the reality that Nancy Pelosi is the best leader in the current circumstances but have obtained the concession that she has put a four year limit on her reign. Pelosi has the moxey to realize that the future lies with the new diverse Congress representatives and that they must not be taken for granted. Pelosi has the responsibility to see to it that her Party does not use up its political capitol on internecine squabbles akin to the Republican Party’s Freedom Caucus which so exasperated Paul Ryan.
THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION PROCESS
The newly energized Democratic Party has spawned several talented Presidential contenders. The rush is predicated by the belief that Trump either won’t be on the ballot and if he is he is mortally wounded. As many as twenty - five candidates are said to be ready to throw their hats into the ring. Broadly speaking there are two main sectors - the established Democrats and the newer, usually more diverse, contestants. There are several women candidates ready to finally break the glass ceiling.
If one looks at the establishment the front runners are former Vice President Joe Biden, socialist democrat Bernie Sanders and the forceful eloquent activist Elizabeth Warren. All three are over seventy years and while none would let the side down they are tainted by being associated with one or other wing of the Democratic establishment and are as such, fairly or unfairly, regarded as polarizing. Then there are a bunch of charismatic and or solid Senators such as Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Kamilla Harris. Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown is a persuasive favorite amongst the Senate group having trounced his Republican opposition in a crucial MidWest State that voted in a Republican Governor in the same election. Julian Castro a high profile Latino and former Obama cabinet minister has already created a Presidential exploratory committee and has strong claims as well.
Jay H. Ell is more persuaded that two of the amazing 2018 Democratic wunderkinder would capture the mood of an electorate who are yearning for a fresh approach to the country’s swampy legislative morass. Although both Beto O’Rourke and Stacey Adams lost their races in deep red Southern States they were highly competitive and cut deeply into Republican majorities. What was so impressive in their candidacies was they did not compromise in their rhetoric to pander to the conservative electorates. They both worked night and day scouring their states engaging and respecting all and sundry in discourse. While both are young and have long careers ahead of them moments in politics come and go and sometimes never return. Stacey Adams is a minority candidate and of course a woman while Beto O’Rourke is a white male. not exactly the ideal demographic choice for the Democrats at the moment. However both will ignite the country and the two would make an incredible presidential ticket. Jay H. Ell has a preference for Beto as he has remained in the public eye and is on the border not shying away from weighing in on the tragedy that is manifesting as a result of a cruel ill thought rudderless approach which is more tailored to satisfy the base rather than providing a solution to this perenial problem. He has a Kennedyesque and Obama feel about him and he drew the biggest audience of the midterms, 50, 000, which was way above anything Trump even fantasized.
Whichever way this is looked at the Democratic Party have an embarrassment of riches. Hopefully in the fight for the nomination they well all remain positive and not detract from the legislative agenda of the Democratic House. They should also stick to the midterm narrative of focusing on policy and leave the smut to Trump or the dilemma another Republican candidate will have to face as to whether to be a Trump clone or distance him or herself from him.
ISSUES AND THE ROLE OF LEGISLATIVE COMMITTEES
Committee work in both the Senate and the House of Representatives is the method whereby rhetoric is translated into action. The Democrats obviously are going to use the House to exert their oversight and legislative agendas. There is very little doubt that oversight will include Trump, his family, campaign and related matters. To this end there will be subpoenas for witnesses and documents. Trump’s income tax returns have been publicly mooted as a subject for the House Ways and Means Committee. However it is more likely that the House Judiciary Committee under the new stable leadership of Jerry Nadler will be dealing with the area of the Mueller investigation. Nadler has made it perfectly clear that there is a high bar to initiate impeachment proceedings and that he regards the mid term election issues the top priority.
Other health care issues, particularly public health care legislation in areas such as maternal mortality, rural health care, value based care models and the opiate epidemic are important to both sides of the aisle. Drug pricing is one controversy that is in the forefront of priorities and the President himself has weighed in on the outrage of the off the chart prices for medicines .
Business and corporations are likely to have a rougher time in the House and more focus on labor and regulations can be expected in all the relevant committees. While there probably is not enough consensus to increase regulations those in place will now be safe. Particularly the Dodd/Frank legislation will remain untouched and continue to place some shackles on unbridled corporate financial malfeasance.
Climate change can well become a central focus now that the House Energy and Commerce Committee is under the control of the Democrats. This was a key issue in the election. California forest fires will be a locus of the debate and there will be a procession of experts linking the increase of natural disasters to the man made warming green house gasses. Trump's offshore drilling initiative, which is opposed by the relevant States, mainly Republican controlled, oil and gas generally, safe water and renewable energy will once again be brought into the public arena.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The Democratic Party have taken a giant step in returning America to its values of a liberal democracy as outlined by the Founding Fathers. Also they are on the right side of the issues, such as climate change, that threaten the planet. Even with only control of one arm of government they have an opportunity to improve the lot of Americans.
Ultimately the impact a Democratic Government will have on the world would be to deal a mortal blow to the inward looking nativistic populist movements that have bedeviled the planet this past decade. Nations on their own have no hope of solving the global crises facing the planet.
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