The dramatic entry of former President Barak Obama into the American political process, where a life and death battle as to the future of the democratic process and America’s role in the world is being waged, has changed the dynamic of the contest. Predictably, both the Republicans and Democrats greeted his unambiguous entry into the political fray, as laid out in his address to the University of Illinois, as an advantage to their side.
The basis of the Republican bravado is that Trump smashed the continuation of Obama’s legacy in the 2016 Presidential election where Obama had campaigned on his record and in support of Secretary Hillary Clinton’s commitment to continue it. Trump even won over some Obama voters in the Mid West where crucial electoral votes were picked up giving The Donald a surprise victory, with a minority of the electorate. The rationale for the Democratic excitement is far more complex. One fact that both sides agree on is that Obama will mobilize their bases.
But before exploring the current analyses of the Obama impact it is useful to look at the Trump messages that resonated and were the components of the Make America Great Again campaign and the role Obama himself played in that narrative.
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” WAS CODE FOR “MAKE AMERICA WHITE AGAIN”
There were several areas where The Donald shrewdly read the discontent in crucial sectors of the electorate and then exploited and acted upon their darkest fears and prejudices. His spiel included that he would represent the little forgotten man, (white man that is). He would clean up the corruption in the swamp. He would tell the world that had had handouts from America long enough whether it be in trade, or NATO or anything else, that the party was over. But most important of all, the USA was being overrun by immigrants, illegal or otherwise, who were stealing jobs, stealing period, raping and drug dealing.
Ostensibly he led off his campaign by coming down the escalator with the illegal Mexicans front and center to his message. The follow up was the Muslims coming into the country that had to be stopped, "Till we find out what the hell is going on”. However far far more germane to the Trumpian mantra was birtherism. Starting in 20111 he conducted a five year campaign claiming that the President was illegitimate as he was an immigrant, a black one no less, born in a s…t hole African country, Kenya. He lied and lied and lied about birth certificates and everything else. The underlying narrative was America was going to hell in a hand basket because of immigrants and one, a black at that, had usurped the biggest prize of them all - The Presidency. If this had happened what else could happen to America who were no longer the recipients of Anglo Saxon immigrants, was the not so secret elephant in the room.
If this analysis is correct why are the Dems so gung ho about the re entry of Obama on the scene? First Jay H. Ell will give the ostensible rationale for Obama doing what he vowed not to do by ignoring the convention started by POTUS 1, George Washington’s, namely to bow out once the Presidential term had finished.
OBAMA: “THESE ARE DANGEROUS TIMES”
POTUS 44 emphasized in his landmark speech to the students why he was embarking on this course:
“This is one of those pivotal moments when everyone of us, as citizens of the United States need to determine just who we are… our democracy depends on it….These are extraordinary times. These are dangerous times. This is not normal,”
Ben Rhodes, a trusted Obama aide in his memoir, “The World As It Is”, reflected on Obama’s depression and self doubt when second guessing his decision to run in 2008 following the 2016 electoral defeat of Clinton. The POTUS had read the criticism that liberals had forgotten how important identity was to people, “What if we were wrong, maybe we pushed too far, maybe people just want to fall back into their tribe?, he ruminated.
So the first African American President, who has an extensive grasp of the political. historical and philosophical history of America, feels more than a usual responsibility to step into that history that he is so much apart of. It was obvious too that he had regained his confidence that he was a force for change and the good, when he reminded the audience that, “Progress doesn’t move in a straight line … it isn’t easy…. two steps forward sometimes seem to produce one step back…each time we pull ourselves painstakingly closer to our founding ideals, that all of us are created equal, endowed by our creator with certain inalienable rights.. “
Obama can also take comfort as to the fact that Trump’s message, generally, has taken a massive dive. Most significantly too Black leadership is no longer a rarity. Just to take two very important races where charismatic African American leaders have grabbed the attention of the electorate in the gubernatorial election races in the red state of Georgia and the purple Florida.
Further just to look at one example that has featured in the commercial world that reflects the change in attitude on identity. Trump has made one of his policy planks, if his disconnected changing rants and tweets can be called policy, an attack on “unpatriotic” NFL players who kneel in protest to racial injustice when the national anthem is played. His belief is that this position is a winner with his base and even beyond. Yet in blood red Texas Cruz’s seat is in danger from a Democratic candidate who challenges outright the Trump dictum. He maintains that it is American to protest. In spite of this heresy he is still neck and neck with the Republican sitting Senator. Nike the leading company in sportswear, and which company has an exclusive lucrative contract with the NFL, has lead its season’s advertising campaign featuring the embattled initiator of this protest, Colin Kaepernick, as a hero with the courage of his convictions to “Just Do It”.
There has to be one other factor relating to his own experiences that lead Obama to venture into a direction that he had been determined to avoid. He has to be thinking further than the midterms. He has to be confident of a Democratic victory in the House but winning the Senate, a long long shot, would lay the grounds for a big majority in that body in 2020. Even more important is Trump must not win a second term. Obama is more than mindful that he did plenty with opposition from both Houses in six years of his Presidency. He was observant of convention and covenant of the United States Constitution as well as the law and Trump isn’t so the damage he could still do is immeasurable. So if Trump survives his legal woes there needs to be a wave that puts him to pasture.
All this is well and good but just because the former leader is politically insightful and wedded to American democracy and the changing attitudes on identity world what has Obama have to offer the Democratic Party?
THE ADVANTAGES OF OBAMA
One of the disadvantages of the American system is that there is no leader of the opposition. The President is the leader of his party but there is no mechanism whereby the losers of the Presidential race can appoint a leader. It is certainly not the Chairperson of the National Committee who is usually elected because he/she is a skilled organizer. Sometimes a very powerful leader of one of the two Legislative chambers can assume the role, which is currently not the situation with the Democrats. Then the beaten Presidential candidate is the last person to assume the mantle. To make matters worse the overbearing narcissistic Trump takes up all the media oxygen so the Democratic Party can be defined by him. He maintains that it is a Party of socialists lead by low IQ’s such as Maxine Walters and swampers such as Nancy Pelosi.
Obama may argue that Trump is merely a symptom and not the problem but leadership matters and matters profoundly. Without Churchill the world might be under the yoke of fascism. Similarly had another populist emerged in Germany that wasn’t a genocidal maniac and an imperialist to boot and merely wanted to fix up the German economy there wouldn’t have been WW11 and the holocaust.
Obama is a charismatic leader and is the only other contender around that can command audiences and a media following so as to compete with Trump for ratings. His comeback speech was covered in full by all the channels including FOX NEWS.
Most importantly he can define the Democratic agenda. Currently there is confusion as to what it really is and does not appear to be coherent and consistent across the board. He began in Champaign Illinois by arguing that every man and woman should be able to find a job and support a family and pursue their small piece of the American dream. He then defined what he saw as key issues and additional “new ideas”. For example, he argued that the Dems were not only running on the minimum wage but on Medicare for all, giving workers seats on corporate boards, reversing the most egregious corporate tax cuts to make sure students graduate debt free. Corruption, climate change, immigration policy and foreign affairs were also listed as priorities. He spoke too of meaningful bipartisanship
Who can Obama influence? Can he make a difference? Obama just has to get out those that supported him. There are key constituencies that were not inspired enough to come out for Hillary who was successfully smeared as part of the establishment swamp. A key demographic that he referred in Illinois to was the youth. As he reflected only one out of five voted in the 2016 elections. They are now the largest demographic and are generally anti Trump. It was not for nothing that his campaign debut, to exhort citizens to get involved, was at a student venue.
Then there are those disillusioned traditional workers that switched allegiance from him to Trump as he promised them that he would bring their jobs back from oversea. In addition his erratic trade tariffs are causing panic amongst the agricultural and industrial labor force. They all have to be giving the matter a second thought as the reversal in fifty special state and national elections since November has shown. He also will have a major impact on the disaffecting suburban Republicans and Independents who are more than aware that their Party has abandoned all their principles and policies. Obama is concentrating his campaign blitz in constituencies some of which Clinton won in 2016, where these demographics can play a defining role. He is focussing on California, Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania where there are more than enough vulnerable constituencies to win the House back.
Obama more than anyone else knows that the only polls that matter are those on election day and that is why he is back in the race with a vengeance. He also is more than aware that the down ballot State elections that the Democrats have been thrashed in the past are crucial if real change is to happen.
THE “DISADVANTAGES” OF OBAMA
There is the belief that Obama’s return will motivate Trump’s base to turn out. Which base? The evangelical base? The latter are solid for Trump anyway. The right wing/Freedom Party/The Old Tea Party are also there with or without Obama. The belief however is strong that Obama’s presence will bring out those who stayed at home in the special elections.
Trump is greeting Obama’s entry with sheer joy. He will tweet up a storm. Obama is an ideal foil for his approach to the world. He is his original “Anti Christ”. Trump is certainly one of those likely to be energized by Obama’s return. And all this attention will give the former President more air time and Trump less as POTUS 45 makes POTUS 44 the focus of his bile.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY?
In answer to Obama’s question as to what happened to the party of Lincoln - it finally died, together with John McCain. A memorial service was conducted at the Supreme Court hearings of Judge Kavanaugh. The GOP will be buried on November 6, 2018.
May its dear soul rest in peace.
May its dear soul rest in peace.
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