TRUMP, MCCONNELL, KAVANAUGH AND “#WHY I DIDN’T REPORT” CREATE HISTORY

America in the age of mass media, conventional and social, is witnessing a life or death struggle as to how its constitution will be interpreted for decades to come. Central to that struggle is a reluctant female academic who for close on four decades has being coping with the trauma of what she has alleged was a sexual assault by the presumptive Supreme Court nominee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh. There is an urgency to the drama being played out in the Senate, as the ringmaster to the production, Mitch McConnell, is fully aware that in two months time he may well not be in a position to dictate the outcome he so fervently desires. He and his highly unlikely partner in this endeavor, President Trump, for differing reasons, have thrown caution to the winds and by their behavior and in their desperation of controlling the Judicial constituent of American power are increasing the odds that they will lose, in the midterm elections, the second component in the American government structure, the legislature. 

Whatever the political outcome Christine Blasey Ford’s story will have changed societal attitudes to female sexual abuse forever.

THE MOTIVES OF TRUMP AND MCCONNELL FOR A RAPID JUDICIAL NOMINATION PROCESS 

Trump’s motive is survival as his judicial nominee for the Supreme Court has opined that there should be no legal jeopardy for a sitting president. In addition if he cannot deliver what he promised to the Evangelical base the latter can let go of their noses and end their unholy alliance with the serial sinner. The POTUS will then just be left with the fringe that turns up to his Nuremberg style rallies. McConnell’s rationale is more profound - a place in history which he is prepared to go to any lengths to achieve. As witnessed he is prepared to abandon all principles and historical precedent of how the Senate operates to achieve that end, thereby breaking the fragile covenant that has held America’s diverse demographic together for generations. Added to that he is willing to associate and connive with a man he would under normal circumstances not be seen dead with. This in order to go down in posterity as the man who took America back into the dark ages. The Republican Senate leader has every reason to feel aggrieved and angry at his volatile partner who against advice chose Kavanaugh in the first place rather than a contender as conservative but without all that potential baggage and who would have been a lock to confirm.

 In fairness to Trump it is not Kavanaugh’s lengthy paper on Presidential legal liability but rather an unforeseen complaint about an alleged attempted rape that occurred over thirty years ago that has upset the applecart. McConnell could argue one supposes that the whole circumstance is exacerbated by having a President who himself has had fifteen similar allegations against him and that magnifies the very #MeToo issues that this happening has brought about. 

MCCONNELL’S MODUS OPERANDI

The nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has resulted in Trump and the Republican Legislators dispensing with any of the niceties, decencies, centuries old customs and conventions that have dominated political discourse in the Senate for close on two and half centuries. Truth be told the disintegration begun nearly three years ago when Republican leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, held up an Obama nomination to the highest court for over a year in the hope that the vacancy would be filled by a Republican President. Then in order to ram through Trump’s judicial nominees McConnell unilaterally dispensed with the filibuster thereby effectively reducing the number of Senators needed to confirm a judge from sixty to fifty. The determined McConnell, backed by his rag bag spineless caucus, with the candidacy of Kavanaugh has come full circle rushing his ratification process at an unprecedented lick Then he withheld over seventy five percent of the judge’s documents relating to his tenure with President George W. Bush and then only produced half of the remainder to the public. 

McConnell pressured the aging Chairman of the Judicial Committee, Chuck Grassley, himself an undistinguished veteran of the infamous Anita Hill hearing, “to get on with it”. In the light of McConnell’s precedent of believing the Supreme Court could operate with one less member for over a year the argument now that a one day delay in achieving a full compliment on the court is a deal breaker was bordering on the incredulous. 

THE PARTISAN CONTROVERSY RAGES AS TO HOW TO PROCEED WITH THE ALLEGATIONS.

All hell broke lose when Senator Feinstein announced that she had a letter, from an anonymous source, alleging sexual assault perpetrated by Judge Kavanaugh as a teenager. She had the letter in her procession for close on three months and had honored the author’s desire for anonymity by telling no - one, not even her Democratic colleagues. She referred it to the FBI who referred it to the WhiteHouse and both put it in their files. It did not take long for the media to find out the author of the letter was a fifty - one year old academic from California, Christine Blasey Ford. 

The Republicans were at sixes and evens as to how to act while the Democrats called for an FBI investigation, consultation with experts as to the legitimacy of her decades old story and time for the issue to be properly researched prior to a hearing. Chairman Grassley and the WhiteHouse emphatically ruled out the FBI and any other witnesses and focussed their attack on Diane Feinstein for springing this bombshell when the Judicial Committee were due for their vote. This tack did not hold because even KellyAnne Conway, Trump’s trusted advisor, claimed that Dr. Ford, deserved to be heard. The focus of the debate then hinged on whether Ford’s lawyers and Grassley’s negotiators could reach agreement as to when, how and under what circumstances the accuser would testify. The back and forth bordered on the ridiculous as to who would speak first, how many cameras there would be as Ford’s representatives tried to create a milieu whereby their terrified client would be least disadvantaged. 

The Republican Chairman had a far more complicated task having three constituencies he had to satisfy. Firstly, the base was advising that Ford need to be told that it had to be the Committee’s way or the highway. Several potentially vulnerable Republican Senators wanted the optics to reveal that they were open to the hearing but the problem lay with Ford who was being so picky that it was obvious that she had no intention of appearing publicly. Finally, there was the growing electorate constituency that claimed that Grassley and his other ten white males “just didn’t get it”. Grassley focussed on the middle option and at the end of the day to the private dismay of the Republican establishment he caved on some of Ford’s demands and the hearing would be on. Nevertheless Grassley's current approach falls far short of what the Democrats deem due process.

IN DEFENSE OF KAVANAUGH

The Republican world came out in defense of their man who categorically denied the allegations. Most significantly this was an isolated allegation in a man who had had the highest character commendations. Seventy - five women came onto Fox and gave the prospective juror a character endorsement second to none. Most of those women who declared themselves Republican maintained that the judge was more credible than the accuser. Much of the supporting rationale was aired on the Fox channel and ranged from, to disbelief of the accuser, “boys will be boys”, this happened fifty years ago, no physical harm occurred and the like. 

However more damage was done in support of Kavanaugh then the exculpatory statements. The official injunction was not to attack Dr. Ford but that line proved to difficult to hold. Firstly, Senior Judicial Committee Member, Orrin Hatch, fresh from his disastrous showing at the Clarence Thomas hearing nearly three decades ago, claimed that, “Dr. Ford was mixed up”. 

The conservative Values Voter Summit, where one speaker claimed that Kavanaugh was being subjected to “political waterboarding”, proved to be the forum where Leader McConnell was to reassure the faithful. He announced to cheers that, “You have watched the fight, watched the tactics, but here’s what I want to tell you. In the very near future Judge Kavanaugh will be on the United States Supreme Court. Don’t get rattled by all of this. We are going to plough right through it and do our job”. In nineteen seconds Maestro McConnell made it quite clear that whatever transpired he had the votes to carry through with the agenda for the ages. In this prediction McConnell was backed up by Vice President Mike Pence.

But the coup de grace was administered by el Presidente who had had for a hundred hours held back from disparaging the alleged victim. He tweeted inter alia, “If the attack on Dr. Ford had been as bad as she said it was charges would have been filed by her or her loving parents”. In a later tweet he added, “Why didn’t the FBI investigate thirty - six years ago”. Trump had finally moved from his attack on Feinstein and earlier tweet “let her testify and TAKE THE VOTE” to slut shaming the victim. This brought out Senator Collins who stated she was “appalled” by the President. More significantly it spontaneously gave rise to the #Why I Didn’t Report” movement. Literally tens of thousands of tragic stories were told by victims reinforcing the rationale and psychodynamics at play when such an assault occurs. 

IN SUPPORT OF DR. FORD

Dr. Ford too received character references and thousands of scholars at her former school stated that the toxic culture at the time was as the alleged victim had described it. Her taking a lie detector test impressed the law enforcement types. However although there were no physical witnesses wiling to testify and it was reported that those at the party those many years ago had no recollection of what Dr. Ford had described, professional opinion backed up her experience as being consistent with the trauma she had described. More to the point her story rang true to the thousands of women who had been down the same path, as well as to law enforcement agents and mental health professionals. 

The alleged victim who had reportedly moved three thousand miles away from the scene of her trauma to escape it would have to face, it in the harshest glare, the fear that her reputation would be shattered.

WHERE SOCIETY STANDS TODAY ON SEXUAL ABUSE

This cataclysmic event is occurring in an environment where society has been made aware again and again of sexual abuse which historically was not regarded as significant and was as a rule swept under the carpet. The #Why I Didn’t Report movement follows closely on the #MeToo wave and the widening sexual abuse scandal in the Catholic Church. It becomes more and more evident that what was either denied, regarded as trivial or at least not serious, for many victims resulted in profound deleterious consequences. At very least society needs to be made aware of what has transpired to put a stop to it and allow those that are impacted to shamelessly seek help and be healed.

THE POLITICAL OUTCOME OF THIS ALL

It is ironic that President Trump’s dismissive attitude on matters of sexual abuse should receive a public airing with a proxy. The outcome of the hearing will not change what has become before and whatever happens therafter as it has given rise to yet another movement that serves to address problems which he and society have tossed aside. Again regardless of the fallout even if not one mind is changed either way either in the Senate or body politic and Judge Kavanaugh gets elected to the Supreme Court the outcome will be a more energized opposition to the POTUS in the midterms. As  the election is a referendum on Trump this can increase the possibility of an even bigger blue wave. 

One thing is for sure the Republicans have found themselves on the wrong side of history in this debate on sexual abuse of whatever sort. They will pay the price in this and other elections but their leadership does not seem to mind. In fact they appear to have become resigned to the electoral consequences of their support of all matters Trump and will have thought it worth it if they have a Supreme Court that supports their value system for the next four decades.

If however if Dr. Ford is overwhelmingly believed McConnell will be hard put to achieve his dream.

KAVANAUGH’S BOSS IN CLINTON PROBE, KEN STARR, COMES TO TOWN

Ken Starr, the smug and prissy Independent Counsel in the Clinton Investigation and Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh's former boss, has once again made a grab at the headlines with a memoir, “Contempt”, which details his four and half year investigation into Bill and Hillary Clinton. Starr, twenty years later, placed the blame on Clinton’s Attorney General, Janet Reno, for his going off at such a massive tangent from his original mandate to investigate an illicit land deal and alleged murder by the Clintons to Bill lying about a sexual affair. As Reno died in 2016 who can argue with him?  

Starr still believes that a President can be subpoenaed as  he did to both Clintons. He consequently asserts that President Trump should give evidence before the Mueller team. Significantly he believes that a President can be indicted. Starr’s position places him in stark opposition with his second in command in the Clintons’ investigation, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, whose  controversial nomination for the Supreme Court is in process. Kavanaugh has done a one hundred and eighty degree turn around on a President’s relationship to the law since the Clinton probe, now arguing that a POTUS should not be subpoenaed let alone be deposed or indicted. 

 Starr's reemergence is not to back up his colleague, although he supports his nomination. Rather he is on a journey to resusitate what is left of his own tattered reputation. One thing is for certain twenty years later is that the two zealots, who led the Clintons’ investigation, are a pair of self righteous sanctimonious hypocrites all be it for differing reasons. Their paths have diverged, one fired for ignoring sexual assault and the other a highly flawed, accused of sexual assault and unashamedly political Supreme Court nominee, who if appointed will never cast off the cloud that has bedevilled his nomination process.

Jay H. Ell will detail Starr’s previous efforts to regain prime time. His positions have altered to suit the times.

STARR WAS FRONT AND CENTER IN THE MEDIA IN THE 1990’S AND RELISHED IT

 Kenneth Starr dominated the political stage in the 1990’s to such an extent that he was elected Time’s Man of The Year for 1998.  His, for those with a long term memory, only claim to immortality was his eighty million dollar Independent Counsel investigation of the Clintons which resulted in the partisan impeachment of the POTUS 42. 

Everything about the Starr probe was an abomination from his appointment to his deliberately tricking Clinton in an unrelated deposition to the disgraceful third degree tactics he used to bully witnesses in attempt to “persuade” them to testify against Clinton. Former Appellate Chief Justice, Richard Posner, a highly respected judicial academic criticized Starr for his entrapment of Clinton which Posner claimed was “outside the accepted norm”. Posner added that the unecessary gratuitous sexual detail that went into in his report was plainly to embarrass the President. (For the record that sexual detail, which has been likened to ponography, in Starr’s referral was written by the coach of young girls, family man, Brett Kavanaugh). Posner opined further that the motive for this was because Starr detested the President. Posner concluded that, “We expect better from our prosecutors, They are not supposed to hate their quarry”.

 STARR ON CLINTON AND THE TRUMP PROBE (BEFORE THE BOOK).

Starr loves the limelight and has made attempts in the recent past to become relevant. In 2016, where he was invited to discuss the Reagan Presidency he was highly complimentary about Clinton. He stated that Clinton was the most gifted baby boomer politician, had remarkable gifts and a genuine empathy for human beings. Interestingly enough Starr’s belated tell all is entitled “Contempt” because he now argues that this is what Clinton had for the law and he has now painted a picture just the opposite of his talk in 2016, on "Presidents and the Constitution".

By reason of his past experience in such a rarefied field any pronouncement by a former Independent Council, in a similar investigation of a Presidency, should make news. The fact that Starr has been getting so little coverage is telling. Anyone who was involved in the Watergate legal proceedings is on every night on one or other network and asked to interpret. Starr who was the mover and shaker in the Clinton impeachment is rarely featured, even on Fox. The reason for him being ostracized is that it is common cause, that Starr’s appointment and investigation was a politically motivated affair, dare Jay H. Ell say "witch hunt" and bares no resemblance to the circumstances that precipitated the Nixon and Trump probes. 

Interventions iniatiated by Starr on the current probe include:

“Mr. President Cut It Out”. (Washington Post).

The first Starr intervention was in an opinion piece where he sort to protect Attorney General Sessions from Trump tweets. He cautioned that Trump’s actions were one of “…the most outrageous - and profoundly misguided - courses of presidential conduct I have witnessed in five decades in and around the nation’s capital. What you are doing is harmful and inimical to our foundational commitment as a free people to the rule of law”. Starr’s peroration was, “Mr. President, for the sake of the country, and for your own legacy, please listen…. by being faithful to the oath of office you took on Jan. 20 and by upholding the traditions of a nation of laws not men.” Not suprisingly his criticism of Trump has now become far far more mooted.

“Ken Starr  - We don’t want a fishing expedition”. (CNN}.

In a report on the CNN webpage entitled “Ken Starr killed irony”, Starr’s opinion on the current investigation by Bob Mueller was spelt out. The former Independent Counsel questioned whether the current Special Counsel might be overstepping the bounds of his mandate in investigating Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election - “I think the gravamen of the original complaints was, was there collusion. To the extent your’e moving beyond collusion with Russian operatives or Russian interests or the Russian government itself, and into that which doesn’t seem to have a direct tie to Russia, these questions are in fact raised”.

So on the one hand Starr states categorically that Trump’s behavior is far worse than Clinton or Nixon and tells the President to “cut it out”. He then, in spite of the fact that Mueller’s mandate, clarified by Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein, to explore all matters related to Russian intrusion into the 2016 USA Presidential Election and any other subjects that might arise from the investigation, warns him not to go on a “fishing expedition”. Now Starr should recognize what a fishing expedition is as he conducted the mother and father of all fishing expeditions.

 STARR'S OWN MOTHER AND FATHER OF ALL FISHING EXPEDITIONS

It was Bill Clinton himself, in the teeth of persistent rumors that he and his wife had acted illegally in connection with what became known as The Whitewater Land Deal, asked his Attorney General to appoint an Independent Counsel to investigate the matter, as he had nothing to hide. Janet Reno appointed Counsellor Robert Fiske, a Republican, who expanded his probe to include the suicide of a Clinton staffer Vince Foster. The Clintons were being accused of murdering him to cover up their Whitewater scandal. 

Fiske completed his investigation and was about to submit his final report which exonerated the Clintons but needed his continuing appointment ratified by an Appeal Court of Judges appointed by Republicans. The latter refused as they claimed his nomination had been made by Democrat Janet Reno. They named Kenneth Starr. There were also several contemporaneous Congress investigations controlled by the Republicans all of whom could find no wrong doing on the part of the Clintons.

Starr started all over again. He subpoenaed both Clintons before a Grand Jury. He expanded the investigation to include a travel Investigation and improper collection of FBI files by the Clintons. He charged a succession of those involved in his ever widening inquiry. He had some jailed for offenses that had nothing to do with his mandate but that were uncovered during it. He also started looking into Clinton’s sex life by questioning State Troopers to that effect. (This it is alleged long before he learned about Lewinski).

He locked up those who refused to give evidence before his grand jury. One of those was an associate of the Clinton’s, Susan McDougal. She claimed that unless she said what Starr wanted her to say she would have been charged with perjury. Her assertion proved valid when a Kathleen Wiley alleged that Clinton propositioned and groped her. A colleague of Wiley’s, Julie Steele issued an affidavit that she was asked by Wiley to lie and corroborate Wiley's story about Clinton. Starr acting on Wiley's uncorroborated accusation, promptly charged Steele with perjury and obstruction of justice for her denial of Wiley’s claim. The case against Steele collapsed as Wiley was not found to be credible. Wiley had a history of fabrication and Steele charged Starr with prosecutorial misconduct. 

McDougal served an eighteen month sentence for refusing to testify to Starr’s grand jury. On her release from prison he sought to try her for a second time for refusing to appear before his grand jury. The jury refused to convict her sighting jury nullification. The latter is a very rare judgement used when the jury refuses to apply the law even though the defendant has broken it in the belief that the prosecution was ill conceived and or not constitutional or humane. There can be no bigger condemnation of a prosecutor than that.

With limitless money and time at his disposal Starr soldiered on his fishing expedition on steroids. He finally hit pay dirt when a Linda Tripp informed him that Clinton had an illicit affair with an intern Monica Lewinsky.  Special Counsel colluded with the lawyers representing Paula Jones who was suing the promiscuous Clinton for sexual harassment. On being questioned Clinton denied a sexual relationship with Lewinsky. 

Starr then presented a referral to the Republican Congress for impeachment on the basis of perjury. It should be noted that Clinton’s impeachment by the House was a a partisan event, unlike Nixon’s arraignment which was bipartisan.
Throughout the process his approval ratings improved and the then Republican Senate Leader, Trent Lott limited the Senate“trial” due to the negative publicity it was receiving. 

AND NOW THE BOOK

There are two principal themes of Starr's memoir, a detailing of all he did in four and half years and a berating of "contemptious" Clinton for demonizing him.  The former Independent Counsel also argues that Trump has taken a page out of Clinton's playbook. When challenged that Clinton did none of the attacking himself he is at a loss to  other than to state that Trump and Clinton are different personalities! Finally, he comes to the obvious conclusion that for impeachment you need a national consensus.

What is left hanging is as there was a "national consensus" not to impeach Clinton why on earth did he recommend it as well write a book justifying it? 

STARR AFTER CLINTON

 Starr in his post Clinton life went into the academic world. In his last position he was forced to resign as President of Baylor College as he failed to act on innumerable complaints of sexual assault and harassment by members of the Baylor football team. He apparently overlooked these crimes due to the importance of the football team.

Jay H. Ell has said again and again that the only positive outcome of Starr's abuse of power was that he could never be nominated as a Supreme Court Judge. Ironically it is the author of the pornography, the purveyor of filth, Brett Kavanaugh, in the Starr referral for Clinton's impeachment that is the controversial Trump pick. His selection largely because he has changed his position on Presidential subpoenas and indictment.

By way of a footnote Starr claimed that he takes all allegations of sexual assault seriously, (sic) but as Judge Kavanaugh's accuser had not, (at the time of interview), identified herself matters had to be left there. One wonders whether the Independent Prosecutor, himself fired for ignoring sexual assault and a recommender of impeachment for lying about a consensual affair will support an alleged liar about sexual assault now that the accuser has named herself? As the Republican support wobbles under this revelation it is anyone's guess what Starr will do.

One wonders too if Kavanaugh and Starr would agree that the lurid detailing of Trump’s sex life, which he has lied about, would be appropriate material for Mueller’s investigation. Would they back Mueller, if he found no obstruction of justice or “collusion” so he just subpoenaed Trump on his sex life and the recommended impeaching him for his lies?

What a fine pair they turned out to be. With a bit of luck Kavanaugh won’t become a Supreme Court Judge either. 

THE OBAMA FACTOR - A HINDRANCE OR HELP?

The dramatic entry of former President Barak Obama into the American political process, where a life and death battle as to the future of the democratic process and America’s role in the world is being waged, has changed the dynamic of the contest. Predictably, both the Republicans and Democrats greeted his unambiguous entry into the political fray, as laid out in his address to the University of Illinois, as an advantage to their side. 

The basis of the Republican bravado is that Trump smashed the continuation of Obama’s legacy in the 2016 Presidential election where Obama had campaigned on his record and in support of Secretary Hillary Clinton’s commitment to continue it. Trump even won over some Obama voters in the Mid West where crucial electoral votes were picked up giving The Donald a surprise victory, with a minority of the electorate. The rationale for the Democratic excitement is far more complex. One fact that both sides agree on is that Obama will mobilize their bases. 

But before exploring the current analyses of the Obama impact it is useful to look at the Trump messages that resonated and were the components of the Make America Great Again campaign and the role Obama himself played in that narrative. 

 “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” WAS CODE FOR “MAKE AMERICA WHITE AGAIN”

There were several areas where The Donald shrewdly read the discontent in crucial sectors of the electorate and then exploited and acted upon their darkest fears and prejudices. His spiel included that he would  represent the little forgotten man, (white man that is). He would clean up the corruption in the swamp. He would tell the world that had had handouts from America long enough whether it be in trade, or NATO or anything else, that the party was over. But most important of all, the USA was being overrun by immigrants, illegal or otherwise, who were stealing jobs, stealing period, raping and drug dealing. 

Ostensibly he led off his campaign by coming down the escalator with the illegal Mexicans front and center to his message. The follow up was the Muslims coming into the country that had to be stopped, "Till we find out what the hell is going on”. However far far more germane to the Trumpian mantra was birtherism. Starting in 20111 he conducted a five year campaign claiming that the President was illegitimate as he was an immigrant, a black one no less, born in a s…t hole African country, Kenya. He lied and lied and lied about birth certificates and everything else. The underlying narrative was America was going to hell in a hand basket because of immigrants and one, a black at that, had usurped the biggest prize of them all - The Presidency. If this had happened what else could happen to America who were no longer the recipients of Anglo Saxon immigrants, was the not so secret elephant in the room.

If this analysis is correct why are the Dems so gung ho about the re entry of Obama on the scene? First Jay H. Ell will give the ostensible rationale for Obama doing what he vowed not to do by ignoring the convention started by POTUS 1, George Washington’s, namely to bow out once the Presidential term had finished.

OBAMA: “THESE ARE DANGEROUS TIMES”

POTUS 44 emphasized in his landmark speech to the students why he was embarking on this course:

“This is one of those pivotal moments when everyone of us, as citizens of the United States need to determine just who we are… our democracy depends on it….These are extraordinary times. These are dangerous times. This is not normal,”

Ben Rhodes, a trusted Obama aide in his memoir, “The World As It Is”, reflected on Obama’s depression and self doubt when second guessing his decision to run in 2008 following the 2016 electoral defeat of Clinton. The POTUS had read the criticism that liberals had forgotten how important identity was to people, “What if we were wrong, maybe we pushed too far, maybe people just want to fall back into their tribe?, he ruminated.

 So the first African American President, who has an extensive grasp of the political. historical  and philosophical history of America, feels more than a usual responsibility to step into that history that he is so much apart of. It was obvious too that he had regained his confidence that he was a force for change and the good, when he reminded the audience that, “Progress doesn’t move in a straight line … it isn’t easy…. two steps forward sometimes seem to produce one step back…each time we pull ourselves painstakingly closer to our founding ideals, that all of us are created equal, endowed by our creator with certain inalienable rights.. “

Obama can also take comfort as to the fact that Trump’s message, generally, has taken a massive dive. Most significantly too Black leadership is no longer a rarity. Just to take two very important races where charismatic African American leaders have grabbed the attention of the electorate in the gubernatorial election races in the red state of Georgia and the purple Florida. 

Further just to look at one example that has featured in the commercial world that reflects the change in attitude on identity. Trump has made one of his policy planks, if his disconnected changing rants and tweets can be called policy, an attack on “unpatriotic” NFL players who kneel in protest to racial injustice when the national anthem is played. His belief is that this position is a winner with his base and even beyond. Yet in blood red Texas Cruz’s seat is in danger from a Democratic candidate who challenges outright the Trump dictum. He maintains that it is American to protest. In spite of this heresy he is still neck and neck with the Republican sitting Senator. Nike the leading company in sportswear, and which company has an exclusive lucrative contract with the NFL, has lead its season’s advertising campaign featuring the embattled initiator of this protest, Colin Kaepernick, as a hero with the courage of his convictions to “Just Do It”.

There has to be one other factor relating to his own experiences that lead Obama to venture into a direction that he had been determined to avoid. He has to be thinking further than the midterms. He has to be confident of a Democratic victory in the House but winning the Senate, a long long shot, would lay the grounds for a big majority in that body in 2020. Even more important is Trump must not win a second term. Obama is more than mindful that he did plenty with opposition from both Houses in six years of his Presidency. He was observant of convention and covenant of the United States Constitution as well as the law and Trump isn’t so the damage he could still do is immeasurable.  So if Trump survives his legal woes there needs to be a wave that puts him to pasture.

 All this is well and good but just because the former leader is politically insightful and wedded to American democracy and the changing attitudes on identity world what has Obama have to offer the Democratic Party?

THE ADVANTAGES OF OBAMA 

One of the disadvantages of the American system is that there is no leader of the opposition. The President is the leader of his party but there is no mechanism whereby the losers of the Presidential race can appoint a leader. It is certainly not the Chairperson of the National Committee who is usually elected because he/she is a skilled organizer. Sometimes a very powerful leader of one of the two Legislative chambers can assume the role, which is currently not the situation with the Democrats. Then the beaten Presidential candidate is the last person to assume the mantle. To make matters worse the overbearing narcissistic Trump takes up all the media oxygen so the Democratic Party can be defined by him. He maintains that it is a Party of socialists lead by low IQ’s such as Maxine Walters and swampers such as Nancy Pelosi. 

Obama may argue that Trump is merely a symptom and not the problem but leadership matters and matters profoundly. Without Churchill the world might be under the yoke of fascism. Similarly had another populist emerged in Germany that wasn’t a genocidal maniac and an imperialist to boot and merely wanted to fix up the German economy there wouldn’t have been WW11 and the holocaust.  

Obama is  a charismatic leader and is the only other contender around that can command audiences and a media following so as to compete with Trump for ratings. His comeback speech was covered in full by all the channels including FOX NEWS. 

Most importantly he can define the Democratic agenda. Currently there is confusion as to what it really is and does not appear to be coherent and consistent across the board. He began in Champaign Illinois by arguing that every man and woman should be able to find a job and support a family and pursue their small piece of the American dream. He then defined what he saw as key issues and additional “new ideas”. For example, he argued that the Dems were not only running on the minimum wage but on Medicare for all, giving workers seats on corporate boards, reversing the most egregious corporate tax cuts to make sure students graduate debt free. Corruption, climate change, immigration policy and foreign affairs were also listed as priorities. He spoke too of meaningful bipartisanship 

Who can Obama influence? Can he make a difference? Obama just has to get out those that supported him. There are key constituencies that were not inspired enough to come out for Hillary who was successfully smeared as part of the establishment swamp. A key demographic that he referred in Illinois to was the youth. As he reflected only one out of five voted in the 2016 elections. They are now the largest demographic and are generally anti Trump. It was not for nothing that his campaign debut, to exhort citizens to get involved, was at a student venue. 

Then there are those disillusioned traditional workers that switched allegiance from him to Trump as he promised them that he would bring their jobs back from oversea. In addition his erratic trade tariffs are causing panic amongst the agricultural and industrial labor force. They all have to be giving the matter a second thought as the reversal in fifty special state and national elections since November has shown. He also will have a major impact on the disaffecting suburban Republicans and Independents who are more than aware that their Party has abandoned all their principles and policies. Obama is concentrating his campaign blitz in constituencies some of which Clinton won in 2016, where these demographics can play a defining role. He is focussing on California, Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania where there are more than enough vulnerable constituencies to win the House back. 

 Obama more than anyone else knows that the only polls that matter are those on election day and that is why he is back in the race with a vengeance. He also is more than aware that the down ballot State elections that the Democrats have been thrashed in the past are crucial if real change is to happen.

THE “DISADVANTAGES” OF OBAMA

There is the belief that Obama’s return will motivate Trump’s base to turn out. Which base? The evangelical base? The latter are solid for Trump anyway. The right wing/Freedom Party/The Old Tea Party are also there with or without Obama. The belief however is strong that Obama’s presence will bring out those who stayed at home in the special elections. 

Trump is greeting Obama’s entry with sheer joy. He will tweet up a storm. Obama is an ideal foil for his approach to the world. He is his original “Anti Christ”. Trump is certainly one of those likely to be energized by Obama’s return. And all this attention will give the former President more air time and Trump less as POTUS 45 makes POTUS 44 the focus of his bile.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY?

In answer to Obama’s question as to what happened to the party of Lincoln - it finally died,  together with John McCain. A memorial service was conducted at the Supreme Court hearings of Judge Kavanaugh. The GOP will be buried on November 6, 2018. 

May its dear soul rest in peace.       

TRUMP: REPUBLICAN PATRIOTS NEEDED

The highest drama is being enacted in the autocratic crazed Trump Presidency where a confluence of events are contributing to the fate of the Forty - Fifth President of the United States. As the noose of legal entanglements tightens Trump’s only hope is to defy the rule of law and halt the proceedings against him. This he can do by firing the Attorney General and nullify the Mueller investigation. Then he needs the Courts to rule that the President cannot be subpoenaed, deposed or charged in a civil or a criminal case. Trump needs to consolidate his position before the midterms when the Democratic Party are favorites to regain at least the House of Representatives. All of this a long shot but Trump has always thrived on being on the edge.

The immediate counter to the President’s autocratic behavior has to be that the Kavanaugh nomination to the Supreme Court be halted then the midterms have to be a resounding vote of no confidence in the President with the loss of the House and even the Senate. For an end, to what has been described as a Presidency that is a real and existential threat to the future of the country, Legislator Republicans have to come forward and initiate investigations into Presidential behavior and make it clear that that Trump puts himself ahead of the Constitution of America.   

THE CONFIRMATION OF BRETT KAVANAUGH

Central to the events in this high stakes reality Presidency is the confirmation hearing of his choice to be the deciding vote on the partisan Supreme Court, Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The latter choice was a risk as Kavanaugh had way-out positions that could provoke just two votes against and unravel his presidency. Mitch McConnell, who has bent every convention and destroyed the traditional process in the Senate to ensure a Republican majority on the Supreme Court, including an unprecedented refusal to allow an Obama Supreme Court nominee to have a hearing and reducing the number of votes needed to confirm Trump’s Federal Judges, begged Trump to find a more easily confirmable nominee. Brent Kavanaiugh besides having way out positions on abortion, gun rights and in all probability torture has authored a paper that states that a President should not be subpoenaed, deposed or indicted. An odd position to say the least for Kavanaugh who was a persecutor of Clinton, only second to his chief Special Counsel Ken Starr. 

Put another way the Republicans are in the process of nominating a potential swing vote to the Supreme Court who will not commit himself on whether a sitting President can be subpoenaed and who skirts around on whether the Supreme Court unanimous precedent that Nixon be subpoenaed for his tapes was decided correctly. He claims to be governed by Court precedent yet his record shows that his decisions are often way out minority interpretations and are in disagreement with the majority of the court.  For example, he claims to follow the Roe v Wade precedent but distorted it in a minority opinion that would have prevented a seventeen year old, who had been raped, to have an abortion. As far as gun rights are concerned in yet another dissenting opinion he equated Second Amendment Rights with First Amendment Rights. This meant that there should be no distinction between semi automatics, grenades, nuclear weapons and bee bee guns. Other absurd positions were that the Consumer Financial Bureau and Net Neutrality were unconstitutional.  The candidate was wishy washy on the restrictions on executive action leaving the observer to believe that in his interpretation of the constitution the President could do whatever he liked. Kavanaugh refused to promise that he would recuse himself should an issue relating to Trump’s legal responsibility come before him. Finally, it is fair to say that the prospective judge, to the highest court, did not convince too many that he did not lie to the Senate at his previous confirmation hearing.

LEGAL WOES INTENSIFY

All this taking place to the unedifying spectacle of an increasing number of indictments and guilty pleas in the Russia investigation. The POTUS’S most serious immediate  legal jeopardy to date is that he is an unindicted co conspirator in a criminal case involving his former lawyer who has sworn to tell the truth. He also faces criminal and civil cases some of which are advanced. All this has resulted in the President appearing more and more unhinged as he fumed against his Attorney General for allowing two Republican Congressmen to be charged for criminal activity. Thirty - five indictments and guilty pleas have already been ratcheted by Mueller. 

There is little doubt that Trump was finally, unashamedly and openly declaring himself above the rule of law.

WOODWARD’S “FEAR” PRE REVIEWED

In the midst of all this theater the renowned journalist and investigative author Bob Woodward, who is credited with Carl Bernstein for cracking Watergate wide open and who has written the definitive inside stories of eight presidencies, previewed his tell all insider story, “Fear”.  The later detailed the chaotic and dangerous Trump WhiteHouse. Woodward told stories of Trump’s inner circle ignoring calamitous orders that could have created international crises. 

The two biggest takeaways from what is now already a pre ordered best seller is that aides closest to him see it as their duty to protect America from his bizarre behavior and his personal lawyer in the Mueller investigation resigned after informing him that if he testified he would end up in an orange jump suit. For the rest there appears to be confirmation of the dysfunctional and directionless Whitehouse that have appeared in other inside books by Michael Wolf and Omarosa as well as in the daily diet of revelations from the media. 

These revelations were immediately challenged by Trump supporters to which Woodward countered that he had hundreds of tapes, notes and documents. In addition Woodward put on the internet an audiotape discussion with Trump where the latter is obviously lying that he had not been informed that Mueller wanted to interview him. The familiar tweeting will now follow with Woodward subject to endless abuse. A lifelong Republican he will once again be smeared as a lackey of Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. He has already been labelled a “Dem Operative” by the out of control POTUS.

NEW YORK TIMES ANONYMOUS OP - ED

Contemporaneously with the McCain funeral and the Woodward revelations another bombshell pushed the crucial Kavanaugh hearings out of the news - the New York Times published an op ed, written anonymously by a senior WhiteHouse insider, entitled “I am part of the resistance inside the Trump administration”. 

The earth shattering piece begins by baldly stating, “I work for the president but like like - minded colleagues I have vowed to thwart parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations”. He/she continues identifying their beliefs and politics:

 “To be clear, ours is not the popular “resistance” of the left. We want the administration to succeed and think that many of its policies have made America safer and more prosperous. But we believe our our first duty is to this country, and the president continues to act in a manner that is detrimental to the health of our republic.”

He/she sums up the basis of the catastrophe, “The root of the problem is the president’s amorality. Anyone who works with him knows he is not moored in discernible first principles that guide his decision making.”

There is also a plea for recognition to the unsung heroes behind the scenes, “The erratic behavior would be concerning if it were not for the unsung heroes in and around WhiteHouse. Some of his aides have been cast aside by the media. But in private, they have gone to great lengths to keep bad decisions contained to the West Wing, though they are clearly not always successful”. 

The anonymous writer details what everyone knows, Trump’s predilection for dictators, first and foremost Russia’s Putin. The author references McCain’s farewell letter and the peroration runs as follows, “All Americans should heed his words and break free of the tribalism trap, with the high aim uniting through our shared values and love of this great nation”.

The insider’s biggest bombshell was that the cabinet had discussed removing the President via the 25th Amendment which provides for his removal on the basis that he is incapable of carrying out the responsibilities of the office. 

SO WHAT NOW?

* The New York Times informant must know that he/she is going to be busted as he/her has there cover blown. This exposure could have any number of interpretations ranging from a cry for help to the possibility that moves to remove the President are in the works. More likely it is an appeal for Congressional Republicans to act.

* Trump has predictably gone volcanic demanding that the NY Times hand over this treasonous informant to the government for national security purposes. He alternates between his berating the leaker and attacks on the “failing NY Times”. 

* It is hard to swallow that there are not even two Republicans in the Senate who haven’t come to terms that they are going to confirm the appointment of a Judge who seems to back the unfit President’s viewpoint on his legal invincibility. The biggest disappointment has to be Senator Lindsey Graham, McCain’s closest friend who has caved into Trump on every key issue including the firing of Attorney General, Sessions. Graham has told the Democrats that they have to win an election to be able to nominate Judges. He has become such a pathetic lap dog that he forgets that it was he and the Republicans that refused to give the elected President Obama’s picks for Federal judges including a Supreme Court Judge a hearing.

* The crucial test as to whether the American people will reject this amoral leader has to be in the midterms where this narcissist has conveniently turned the election into a referendum about him. Their congress representatives have failed them. 

* One fact that is a certainty and that is all hell is going to break lose when the author is named. 

* And Bob Woodward’s book hasn’t even hit the shelves yet with its four hundred page expose of all that is amiss, it will flesh out in graphic detail about everything that the informant has laid out.