Amidst the growing chaos of his Presidency, with him lashing out at the media in an unprecedented fashion and even punishing the architect of Osama Bib Laden’s capture, the one factor that has allowed Donald J. Trump to remain on the offensive is his belief that his base will stand by him through thick and thin. Even though there are growing signs of disaffection, as far as he is concerned, nothing has changed from the day he commented on the campaign, that even if he shot someone on 5th Avenue it would not lose him a jot of support. His ongoing assessment has resulted in him making no effort to be the President of all America because all he needs is his base.
Where Trump miscalculates is that his base’s backing may be enough to keep control of the Republican Party but not enough to reelect him President. His freak victory, with a minority of votes, needed, besides his base, another seven percent of the electorate which by all counts he has already lost. However, if the base remains firm it makes his impeachment highly unlikely. The key reason for that is that the current Republican legislators will stick by him if he still controls over eighty percent of the Party - that is forty percent of the electorate.
Two factors could dent Trump’s narrative and could cause GOP legislators to jump ship - a devastating Mueller referral coupled with a beating in the midterms. Trump would have cost them seats and that would be definitive evidence that even in safe Republican seats his base support has eroded. As they owe him no loyalty they will abandon ship in a heartbeat.
TRUMP: KEEP THE FORTY PERCENT BASE AND SURVIVE
As survival is Trump’s principal objective and the biggest immediate threat in his mind is impeachment his strategy is geared to feeding his base a narrative that illigetimizes the Special Counsel and his probe. He has likened the probe to McCarthyism. Trump and his TV lawyer Rudi Giuliani, if their behavior is anything to go by, are expecting a scorching report from Mueller and consequently have abandoned any effort at maintaining a consistent story. They change the narrative with monotonous regularity. For example Trump initially argued that his injunction to Comey to drop the investigation against his National Security Advisor Michael Flynn was not obstruction of justice. Now he claims that he never even had the conversation. The smears on Mueller, Rod Rosenstein et al are escalating. This game plan holds only if Trump retains his base.
The issue is, are there any pointers that Trump’s forty percent base is budging? The short answer is that his poll support remains firm but there is plenty to show that there are cracks in the cult leader’s following. Put another way when asked by the pollsters the Republican base are saying that they approve of the Trump Presidency but some, by their actions, are acting decidedly otherwise.
SPECIAL ELECTIONS AND MIDTERMS
The State and National special elections have been a disaster for Trump. Most of his endorsements have come unstuck. The recent very poor showing in Ohio has pointed to the fact that the forty percent maybe saying yes to the pollsters but a large number either didn’t show up or voted against. This in spite of the fact that Trump took an unprecedented step for a sitting President by intervening in a local election with endorsements and holding a rally in support. The Ohio constituency has two Republicans registered for every one Democrat. Trump won the district by eleven percentage points in 2016 yet the outcome is still in the balance. At best the GOP will retain the seat with 0.5% majority. Trump’s base did not pitch up in the usual numbers. Ohio is a rerun to a lesser or greater extent of fifty such special elections.
Other parameters point to a major midterm swing and an erosion of the base: there are seventy House seats that are more vulnerable than Ohio; a Presidential approval rating of forty percent historically predicts a big loss as does the large number of Republican incumbents not standing for election.
BACKGROUND PROBLEMS.
The President is beset with problems most of which impinge directly on the Mueller investigation. He could manage these singly but the additive effect is unhinging him as his tweets would indicate. Front and foremost are the threats posed by former insiders, Omarosa and Cohen, who have had a long time exposure to his inner workings. Both have tapes of conversations that could back up their attacks. Mueller’s prosecutions continue. The noose is tightening around his long term political associates, Roger Stone and Carter Page where there is public knowledge of their involvement with Russia. His swampy administration is riddled with nepotism, cronyism, pay for play and a revolving staff door. The recent revelation on Omarosa’s tapes that Republican Party and Campaign money to the extent of a $180,000 a year per person is being paid to shut up those operatives who leave the WhiteHouse is sure to cause a backlash.
His much vaunted tax bill is gaining no traction on the stump so he is left with immigration as his main election platform. The cruel separation of families may have firmed a section of the base but he has lost many Republican women as a result. Then there are those that are already cooperating with Mueller such as Flynn, Gates and Papadopoulos that add to his worries. While the Republican Legislature are very wary about censoring him they have made it quite clear, to date, that the Russian Investigation must continue.
While none of this or anything else persuades the forty percent not to tell the pollsters that they approve of Trump they have obviously resulted in sections of the faithful faltering. What has to really concern the POTUS, however, is the new poll evidence that Giuliani and his campaign to denigrate Mueller and his probe is not taking hold.
THE RECENT CNN POLLS ON TRUMP’S HANDLING OF RUSSIA
- Only thirty - four percent of respondents answered that Trump is handling the Russian Investigation well. A similar percentage maintained that his statements have been true or mostly true.
- Seventy percent responded that Trump should agree to an interview with Mueller.
- The lowest percentage ever, for a Supreme Court confirmation, thirty - seven percent, favor Kavanaugh’s endorsement. (Kavanaugh doesn’t believe that Trump should be subpoenaed or indicted).
- In a generic poll the Democrats lead the Republicans by eleven points which puts at least seventy seats in play in the House of Representatives.
AT THE END OF THE DAY - TRUMP’S SUPPORT IS ERODING
These polls confirm that there is a peeling off of support on the narrative that Trump and Giuliani are offering on the Mueller investigation. Particularly instructive is the fact that on the question of Trump, under oath, sitting down with Mueller seventy percent polled in the affirmative. This does not bode well for the prolonged fight that Giuliani is provoking when challenging Mueller to subpoena the POTUS. The sentiment relating to the Kavanaugh nomination, which is central to the Trump policy of fighting a subpoena, sends the same message - that Trump should cooperate with the Mueller investigation. This is taking place concomitant with election reversals that reaffirm a loss from the forty percent base.
Giuliani is sending a double message to Muller - complete your investigation within a few weeks and at the same time he is providing him with the wherewithal to prolong it by taunting him that he would challenge a subpoena up to the Supreme Court. Mueller should take the challenge, within three months he will have legislative backing and proving “collusion” has to be all but done. The more time Mueller has the better.
IN DESPERATiON TRUMP EXTENDS THE DAY
The Donald desperate to reverse the trend, as a diversionary tactic, took the unprecedented decision to revoke the security clearance of former CIA Director, John Brennon. This resulted in fourteen former Intelligence Heads and overall seventy - five CIA officials condemning the President’s restriction of free speech for political purposes. Trump responded characteristically by announcing the imminent withdrawal of another security clearance because of the “Russian Thing”. Two of the heads have countered that they would be honored if Trump withdrew their security clearances as well. It is not surprising that everyone he is threatening is related to that “Russian Thing”.
In response to nearly four hundred editorials written by newspapers big and small across the country condemning his attack on the freedom of the press by labelling them “The enemy of the People”, Trump doubled down by maintaining their combined protest was “collusion”.
Desperate too at what a Manafort conviction might mean to the Russia investigation he attacked the prosecution “witch hunt” and vouched for his embattled former Campaign Manager. This is jury tampering and in Western countries would be considered contempt of court. The Manafort jury now can relate to the fear engendered by foreign dictators when they threaten those who wish to maintain the rule of law. Imagine an anxious juror’s reaction to the President’s criticism of the prosecution coupled with his “punishing” political opponents? The Judge who has been liberal with his criticism of the prosecution should have saved some of his venom for calling out the President from the bench for jury tampering. Trump’s behavior is an affront to his court.
The fact that the Pentagon and Washington DC have rained out his military parade, which has gone the way of his wall, has incensed the thin skinned President. Predictably he lashed out with demeaning and false tweets directed at DC’s female African American Mayor.
THE GOP LEGISLATORS ENABLING OF TRUMP
The Republican Party legislators who are hoping against hope that Trump can turn the tide would be better served by serving their country by censoring the President. There is little doubt that their spinelessness contributes to the base sticking to Trump. The irony is that the silent Senate Republicans are hard at work trying to secure the nomination of s Supreme Court Judge who is against subpoenaing or indicting the POTUS. The GOP legislators will go down in infamy as they have stood by and watched every one of their principles go down the drain supposedly because of a tax cut but really for their pathetic need to remain in Congress.
Trump will have his day in November when the midterms will be a referendum about him. Meanwhile hold onto your seats as America is in for a rough ride. As Trump believes he is America he could drag the country down with him. One outcome that is for sure till his last breath Trump will scream victory and victimization simultaneously.
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