TRUMP, THE MIDTERMS AND THE FUTURE

The Trump backed Republican candidate’s showing in the Congressional special election in Ohio underlines the political trends that are sweeping the country at the moment. These include the facts that Trump still controls the base of an ever diminishing and changed Republican Party, that the latter are in for a thrashing in November and that the Democratic Party, (DP), need a viable alternative policy to capitalize on the anti Trump enthusiasm. It remains to be seen how the embattled Trump responds to the tightening and looming legal threat that threatens his very existence. He also has to face the inevitability of at least one Legislative Body being able to investigate him, his finances and even initiate impeachment.

OHIO, TRUMP AND THE GOP

Win loose or draw the 12th District Congressional special election in Ohio the ultimate result still represents at least an eleven point swing to the Democrats. (While the Republican is leading by sixteen hundred votes there are eight and a half thousand still to be counted). According to the prestigious Cook Political Report the Republicans have sixty - eight seats that are more vulnerable than the Ohio one. What is more with the growing DP momentum the Republicans cannot win this one in November. With at least seventy seats needing “ outside assistance” the GOP cannot throw the resources they threw into this fight into all of them. Ryan’s Leadership Fund PAC coughed up close on three million, the GOP National Committee just short of a million and opened two new offices in an effort to get out the vote. Another PAC dumped a late two hundred thousand as well. By contrast the DP spent less than a million on this race while their candidate outraised the opposition locally. 

So the GOP would need a ton of outside money to make their candidates competitive in the toss up races. This at a time when their largest supporting group, headed by the Koch brothers, have announced that their four hundred million is not going to support Republicans that back Trump’s trade and Immigration initiatives. 

Besides money there are two other major historical predictors of major midterm losses of the Governing Party - approval rating of the President and number of incumbents not standing for reelection. Trump’s approval rating at forty - one percent is far lower than Clinton’s and Obama’s were when they were both humiliated in midterms - the former being at forty - six and the latter at forty - five percent. Thirty - seven Republican members are not defending their seats - over double that of the DP. Incumbents are usually returned at least eighty five percent of the time and there is almost a linear relationship of the overall losses a party sustains with the number of their resignations. Thus these two parameters  bode adversely for the Republicans.

Trump’s impact was minimal if not negative in Ohio. Usually the President is very careful not to risk his imprimatur in a local race. Not that this POTUS cares, as he reinterprets whatever happens and what happened as a major triumph for him of historic proportions. The flight of suburban voters from the Republican Party, as illustrated by the outcome in the populous Franklin County, was once again a feature of this race. While the GOP contender won the rural counties by a large percentage the Republican turnout was way lower than in 2016. Looking at the Trump effect over all the Special Elections it has to be seen as a major negative.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY (DP)

The DP is gung ho. The number of candidates making themselves available for one office or another in the forthcoming midterms exceeds all records. Interestingly enough the Democrats have a large number of decorated servicemen as candidates, including women who are in the forefront of this increase in prospective office bearers. There  are an astonishing number of women who have won primaries and now represent forty percent of the DP candidates for the House of Representatives. There are already eight female DP candidates for Governorship with sixteen Primaries still to be decided. 

This explosion has not occurred in a vacuum, the misogynistic Trump has radicalized them from day one where his inauguration was followed by The Women’s March. The latter turned into a national and international protest largely directed against the President. Over four hundred marches took place in the USA “to send the administration a message on their first day”. Most significantly the organization has remained in place and has  continued agitating. Women have been angered as the Presidency blundered on and most recently Trump’s splitting up of families has had to be the last straw. Already there has been mobilization against the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

The Indivisible Movement has formed hundreds of grass roots movements since Day One and the widely followed “Resistance Calendar” keeps everyone up to date with protest and organizational events. Other activist groups such as the student gun control movement, “Right to Life”, have vowed to remove Congress members  who won’t  limit the National Rifle Association agenda. Then Trump’s bigotry against African Americans, Hispanics and Muslims have galvanized them to halt this prejudice. 

All this has translated into the spectacular special election results to date. However the opposition mantra has not been focussed on Trump. Nor have the DP unlike their opponents  nationalized the special elections. All candidates have concentrated on policy offerings including local priorities. However they need to move this policy approach into a coherent consistent national platform. 

There has been very little factional fighting in the Primaries and the National Chairman Tom Perez has claimed that in all instances the Primary contenders have rallied behind the victor. Bernie Sanders has been extraordinarily restrained. The kindest critique of his performance in the Democratic Primaries was delivered by the New York Times who commented that he was winning converts but not Primaries.

THE FUTURE FOR THE DEMOCRATS

Assuming that the Democrats win the House their principle objective must be to launch a policy initiative that is rational on tax, health care, immigration, job creation and training, education, the national debt, student loans and infrastructure. Nothing will be gained by grandstanding issues like the outright banning of ICE. The electorate's memory is short and the DP have to act like an alternate government who need a DP President at the helm. If Trump survives he will still be the "Republican" nominee in 2020. Then anything might happen again especially if the Democrats have given a chaotic performance in the interim.

Then as much as Nancy Pelosi, leader of the Minority House Democratic Party, has done she is regarded as “The Establishment”. To recap - a principle reason for Trump’s win in the Midwest was the switch of a significant number of frustrated Obama voters to Trump. They were sick and tired of the self serving elected politicians. Unhappily and unfairly Pelosi has become the poster child of this type of lawmaker. So much so that a big Republican issue in the special elections has been whether the opposing Democrat would support Pelosi as leader.  

As matters stand Trump has too much support to move to impeach him. What the Dems should do is legislate to protect Mueller’s investigation. The ensuing debate will help educate the electorate. Impeachment should only be undertaken with a buyin from the Republicans and that will only happen when his approval rating starts hitting the thirties. 

In short the DP, as the only adults in the room, have a massive historic responsibility to right the ship.

THE FUTURE FOR THE REPUBLICANS 

The Republican Party of conservative values, free trade, fiscal responsibility, ties with international allies, civil liberties, separation of powers, commitment to the rule of law and freedom of the press, is dead. Perhaps arising from the ashes something close to it may eventually emerge. But for now The Party continues as the cult of Donald J. Trump - all this to the shame of its legislative leaders, in particular Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and Reince Priebus. 

Having said this what are the prospects of this sad vestige made up of a ragbag of constituencies? The latter being denying members of the Grand Old Party, right wing extremists, hypocritical evangelicals, cynical citizens who are profiting from Trump’s irresponsible financial and environmental policies and the disillusioned blue collar workers and out of work miners who have been shafted and neglected by politicians.

What the Trump Cult Party does have is the old GOP apparatus, infrastructure, organization and finances. There are still some of the backers and Political Action Committees that are bank rolling Trump Cult candidates in the hope that this is all a nightmare and if a Republican majority is once again elected the world would wake up to good old fiscal discipline and compassionate conservatism. Ryan to add to his infamy has collected a relatively large sum of money to allow the show literally to go on. 

McConnell has put on his blinkers and has perverted the whole Senate process in order to elect Supreme Court Judges who would assist in keeping America in the nineteenth century. He has lately focussed all his efforts on electing a Judge who is on the fringes of society, who does not believe in the women’s right to choose and believes that the President has powers similar to the divine rights of kings. This McConnell is doing while Washington is burning.

Ideally the GOP legislators whether they be in the majority or minority should start acting responsibly putting a curb on Trump who doesn’t represent the same Party that they do, protect the investigation into the assault on this country’s democracy, hold the President if necessary responsible for high crimes and misdemeanors and finally, assist the Democrats in passing legislation on immigration, infrastructure, jobs and the like. Only them could they see a rebirth of a party with the values they purport to represent.

THE DANGER OF BLOODSHED 

Eugene Robinson, that laid back commentator of the Washington Post, has written that words have meaning and Trump’s unhinged rhetoric is going to lead to someone being killed. It is on the record too that the POTUS, at his rallies, has sanctioned violence. In his campaign rallies when he believed, like everyone else, that he would lose he spoke only of “rigged elections”. He also ambiguously opined that, “the second amendment people” could act.

The President and his entourage are in grave legal jeopardy. He believes he is the State. Furthermore he believes he is entitled to do whatever it takes to protect the State. So Speaker Ryan maybe you better do a bit more than collect money for the non existent GOP and Senate leader McConnell the fact that you were busy electing a Neanderthal Judge, if it all hits the fan, will be no excuse in the High Court of History.