Trump and Giuliani, who plays his lawyer on TV, have ratcheted up their attacks on Mueller, his investigation and Jeff Sessions who has been all but instructed to halt the investigation.
Trump has vacillated on his attitude towards the probe depending on whether he believed it would do him more harm to stop it than whatever it might turn up. His vicious tweets against Mueller and his team as well as Sessions makes it pretty clear that what he currently fears most, namely that Mueller has the goods on him.
This perception has been brought about by a number of factors and has resulted in a ramping up of the rhetoric to what Trump has constantly labelled as a “hoax” and a “Witch Hunt”. The latter being labelled a conspiracy that was hatched up between Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party on the one hand and the Dark State as represented by the FBI on the other. Their alleged motivation was to illegitimize his election which they “should have won” and to claim that he “colluded” with the Russians.
WHAT CAUSED TRUMP TO GO ON OFFENSE
While Trump changes his position at the drop of a hat this latest orchestrated effort by Giuliani and him seems to have a permanence about it and it is not difficult to sass out the precipitating factors. First, there is the all out war with his former “fixer” Cohen and the obvious damage he can cause. Then there is the Manafort trial, which he apparently is watching minute by minute. The detail that Mueller has on his former campaign manager’s finances and dealings with the Russian backed Ukrainians has to strike fear in Trump's heart.
Then there is obviously a knowledge of what Mueller may have as there have been negotiations on what Mueller’s questioning might cover. It is becoming more apparent that there has been “collusion” and Mueller’s subpoena of the intermediary who set up the Trump Tower meeting is indicative of the investigation closing in. Added to that is the fact that nobody is taking notice of his banal denying the culpability of the Russian intervention in the 2016 election as the Intelligence and Security Chiefs proclaim that the Russians are at it again.
The influential Koch brothers took Trump on as well as vowing not to support the Republicans that back him on trade and immigration issues. All this coupled with the growing reality that the Republicans may well lose at least the House raises the specter of impeachment and that more than anything has injected a sense of urgency in getting closure on the “Russia Thing”.
LEST WE FORGET - THE TRUMP TOWER MEETING OF JUNE 13 WITH THE RUSSIANS
Jay H. Ell believes that the meeting arranged between Donald Trump Jnr. more than anything else is on Trump’s mind. Besides Mueller’s moves there is his fixer Cohen’s allegation that Trump knew of the meeting and sanctioned it. It is salutary to reflect on the content of the invitation e mail that Donald Trump Jnr. received from Rob Goldstone for that meeting:
“Emin just called and asked me to contact you with something interesting.
The Crown Prosecutor of Russia met with his father Aras this morning and in their meeting offered to provide the Trump Campaign with some official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary with her dealings with Russia and would be very useful to your father.
This is obviously very sensitive and high level information but it is part of the Russia and its Government’s support for Mr. Trump - helped a lot by Aras and Emin.
What do you think is the best way to handle this information and would you be able to speak to Emin about it directly?
I can also send this information to your father via Rhona, but it is ultra sensitive so wanted to send it you first.
The rest is history. But add to that - Steve Bannon told Michael Wolff that there is no way the son would have not told the father about it. Add to that Cohen, Mueller subpoenaing “Emil” and the fact that Trump Jnr. under oath denied that he discussed this with his father. Then Trump has admitted that he prepared the cover up press release of the meeting and that he originally lied that he hadn’t....
THE TRUMP CAMP RESPONSE TO THE WORSENING SITUATION
So it is all systems go on defense. Mueller and his alleged “Democratic henchman” were mercilessly attacked. Notice was served to Attorney General Sessions to halt the investigation immediately. Manafort who even though he “hardly served” in his campaign was elevated to victimhood, Trump claiming that Al Capone had been treated better.
Trump is supposedly in a war with his legal team as to whether to be interviewed by Mueller or not. The POTUS supposedly is dead keen and his team terrified. (Jay H. Ell believes Mueller doesn’t really give a hoot as he has all the goods he needs but he doesn’t want to lay himself open to the accusation that he never gave Trump, who for practical purposes is a target, an opportunity to respond).
The central defense narrative has changed dramatically. After repeating, at every possible opportunity, the mantra, “no collusion”, the argument has become even if there was "collusion" the latter isn’t a crime. After supporting Cohen and condemning the “storm trooper attack” on him, the story gradually changed. The “fixer” was no longer an honest broker but a pathological liar. Unintelligible explanations followed as to what the public assumed was what Cohen had on tape in an effort to get ahead and counter the “bad news”. There were explanations of meetings that Giuliani then claimed hadn’t happened mixed in with outright denials that Trump had prior knowledge of the meeting his son convened with the Russians to get dirt on Hillary.
TRUMP AND HIS SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE HEADS OPENLY DISAGREE ON RUSSIA
One interesting move was the sudden appearance of the Security and Intelligence Chiefs at a White House press conference that acknowledged Russian interference in 2016 and that the Russians were on the job in 2018. They made it quite clear that the Russians were and are a clear and existential danger. They were a threat to America’s democracy.
This effort did not convince anyone that Trump has bought into the obvious. The Intelligence Chief Dan Coates still doesn’t know what happened in the Trump/Putin meeting in Helsinki. Nor was their any explanation from the FBI Director Christopher Wray as to why Trump kept claiming that FBI was corrupt. None of the top brass could answer as to why they were all thrown under the bus at Helsinki and in favor of Putin.
Trump a few hours later at his Nuremberg style rally openly contradicted those who are responsible for the safety of this country and protecting its democracy. It is getting close to open warfare.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE BASE - STUPID
At the end of day the new offensive is aimed principally at Trump’s unquestioning adoring base. In Trump’s mind they and they alone were responsible for his “great victory”. He reckons that if he could keep them motivated and exited and get them screaming to the polls all will be well. As Giuliani has confided Mueller will come out with his version and then he, Giuliani, would come out with his and he would be believed. Trump has started on a massive campaign circuit with three rallies in less than a week. Ostensibly they are to support the Republican candidates but as always they are about him. The old bogeymen are paraded and the favorite pariah, “the media” is given the full treatment. They have been labelled as “the enemy of the people”.
Giuliani has made it clear that they are going to win in the court of public opinion. This tactic has plenty of logic and merit to it. To successfully impeach Trump you going to need some of the forty percent his base to go along. That base may not be enough to win elections but is enough to keep Trump as Republican nominee and to ensure that the GOP is now his party. The GOP legislators collude in the hope that the party still stands for all those good conservative values. Hence they are ambivalent about distancing themselves from him.
A far right group entitled QAnon has become a feature of Trump rallies. They are conspiracy theorists second to none. Trump acknowledges them by stating the number 17 which number the letter Q is in the alphabet. Trump has shown that he embraces anyone that backs him. He was even supportive of the right wing anti semitic fringe in Charlottesville so his acceptance of this scary group that threatens violence is not entirely unexpected. However it is a sign of desperation to be associated with this crowd.
He is generally against the sentiment of the GOP establishment. This especially so when the response to the Koch Brothers is to tell them to go to hell just because they disagree with the POTUS on a few issues. The latter have $400 million that are going to dish out for the midterms.
Trump has failed to learn the lesson of the special elections where the base has hung in but he has lost the additional twenty percent of independents and others that put him over the top in 2016. There have been fifty GOP losses in State and National elections. All the omens point to a devastating 2018 mid terms.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Trump and Giuliani’s response to the worsening situation is not likely to be able to withstand a devastating report from Mueller. What happens in the Manafort trial is very important because if he is convicted the elephant in the room is that the POTUS’S campaign manager, had extensive connections with Putin’s oligarchs.
Whether Trump is impeached or not really depends on whether Republicans, be they in the majority or not, go along with it. That will depend on the strength of Mueller’s evidence. There is a group that is gaining ground “Republicans For The Rule of Law” who are already punting that there are enough grounds for impeachment.
One fact for sure is that Giuliani and Trump’s new aggressive initiative is not impressing the GOP legislators and many are saying so. Also if he axes the probe that just might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
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