Monday, July 2, 2018

COME BACK OBAMA AND COUNTER TRUMP







Donald Trump the forty - fifth President of the United States of America, whose survival instincts are second to none, has totally dominated the American political scene since his inauguration with his charismatic narcissistic demagogue style. His national and international political policies and his abandonment of Presidential behavior has put him at odds with all previous Commanders in Chief. To put it kindly he is not a “normal” President.

All indications are that he has lost at least twenty percent of his support following his minority victory vote in the Presidential election. As matters stand the mid term elections are going to be a referendum on him, as he believes they should be, and if all matters were normal than the Republicans would be in for a beating. However with Trump nothing is predictable and the vulnerability the Democrats have is that they are lacking a leader. Trump whose principle campaign weapon is his rallies that are slavishly attended by his thousands of supporters. These events gobble up all the media oxygen and will barely give the insipid leadership of Schumer and Pelosi the time of day. In addition the Democrats appear to have no counter to Trump’s policies, however bad they may be. The media too has created the impression, bolstered by Trump, that there is a major split in the Democratic Party. 

There is only one politician who can command the same following and has the gravitas to weld the Democratic Party into a fighting force and that is the forty - fourth POTUS, Barack Obama. The latter is the very epitome of a “normal” President and “normal” Presidents butt out and do not cramp the style of their successors. However, unwilling Obama may be to mix in, he has to admit that these times are far from normal and may need an abnormal response. In addition his intervention may not be plain sailing and might encounter opposition from both the left and right as, truth be told, he is a centrist. 

THE ABNORMAL UNAMERICAN TRUMP PRESIDENCY

It is fair to say:

 that Donald Trump is not a “normal” President in the tradition of Jefferson and the Founding Fathers who made a covenant to create a democracy with the overriding principle that all men were created equal and who Founded an America based on the rule of law and the Separation of Powers.

that the country has always regarded the Presidential Office with the greatest respect and deference. In turn every President has at least paid lip service, once elected, to be the President of all its peoples.

that Donald Trump has made no attempt to follow the proud covenant of the Founding Fathers and has unashamedly discriminated against certain sections of the populace as well as making no bones that his base and his base alone is whom his Presidency will serve.

that, whatever else one may say about Donald Trump, he is a formidable opponent whose survival skills are unparalleled. Furthermore, the spineless Republican Party that he hijacked, in spite of heaping tons of criticism as to his suitability to be President, have failed to put a break on his excesses which go against all the principles that they ostensibly stood for. 

that if President Trump is left unchallenged his actions, that include his belief that he is above the law and that the legislative and judicial branches of government should answer to him while America’s allies should no longer be Western democracies but rather autocratic dictatorships,  will result in him and America having more in common with North Korea’s Kim Jung Un, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping than Western democracies.

INDICATORS ARE THAT TRUMP HAS LOST SUPPORT AND HIS POLICIES ARE FAILING

all this bearing in mind:

that indications are that Trump, who was elected by a minority of voters, has even less electoral support than in 2016. His polls are consistently at forty percent whereas he received approximately forty - seven percent in the election. The Republican Party that he now leads has suffered fifty reversals in State and National by elections where he often publicly backed the losing GOP candidate. In just one example, a Pennsylvania Congressional seat, he begged the electorate to vote for his candidate so as “not to embarrass him”. Another embarrassment includes the flipping of an Alabama Senate seat which involved a thirty percent swing to the Democrats.

that the fact that Trump has ninety percent support of the Republican Party is misleading as there have been defections from three of their demographics. They have lost a quarter of their millennials. The reason for their losses in the special elections has been “blamed” on the Republican women abandoning the Party and finally swaths of their pundits and intellectuals have called it quits, some like George Will are openly canvassing for the Democrats.

that, the loss of women support, particularly in the suburbs, is deeply worrying for the GOP as two major issues that impact on them have been front and center of “the resistance”. Women generally have been in the forefront of the protests against the separation of families. In the blistering heat on June thirtieth there were demonstrations involving tens of thousands, in over seven hundred cities/towns in America. Then there is the impact that the canvassed resignation of Justice Kennedy could make on abortion and contraceptive rights. Over two thirds of women favor the “right to choose” and even more are up in arms about family separation.

 that the promised economic revival of the middle class and the poor that Trump originally elected to run on has turned out to be a damp squib. So much so that the original strategy of making this the major Trump and Republican election platform has been abandoned. The rising price in gas alone will in many instances eat half of the $2000 “bonus” of Trump's handout. Most companies have used their massive tax breaks to buy back stock, (already accounting for $189 billion) and to increase dividends for shareholders rather than bolster wages. The unthought out trade wars that Trump has initiated, at kindest, are going to push up the cost of living and result in job loss. In addition taking on iconic Harley - Davidson, calling them unpatriotic, which company because of reciprocal tariffs has moved some production oversea, will backfire. There is worse to come as all the Trump international targets are aiming their reciprocal tariffs to products in Trump country. Also where are the voices of the fiscal conservatives, who were the backbone of the GOP, now that the USA national debt is the highest in history, far higher than ant Democrat pushed it. 

 that there appears to be a golden opportunity for the POTUS to elect a Supreme Court Judge who would both back his legal position and ban abortion. This, however, is far from a certainty . Everything points to the fact that no Justice will be ratified unless he/she is prepared at least to recuse him/herself on the legal issues and guarantee that Roe v Wade will remain on the statutes. A  GOP majority of one in the Senate may not be enough to fufill Trump's agenda. For starters Senators Collins and Murkowski are pro choice.  Senator Sasse has threatened to block any Trump judicial nominee if Trump continues in the same autocratic manner which the POTUS shows no sign of abandoning. He has problems, to a lesser or greater extent, with Senators Corker, Rubio, Paul, Portman, Lee, Graham and Alexander. There were fourteen GOP Senators who voted against Trump’s immigration Bill in February. So he has work cut out in the Senate.

TRUMP’S LEGAL WOES

all this is taking place to the background of increasing menacing legal jeopardy for the POTUS:

In that the Mueller investigation has to be closing in if the unprecedented disgraceful attack by the Republican House Judicial Committee is anything to go by. The GOP mercilessly assailed, with no foundation, Rod Rosenstein who is the supervisor of the probe. They purposely broke the barrier between the Judicial and Legislative separation of powers by demanding investigative material that would help the President in his legal defense in the Russian probe. They have threatened to impeach the Deputy Attorney General if he does not deliver, paving the way for Trump to fire him - a decision which if the POTUS has any sense of history will bring him more woe than joy.  Senator Graham, closest friend of seriously ill John McCain,Trump’s fiercest critic, has stated again and again that should Trump fire Mueller that it would be the end of his Presidency.

in that any minute now Trump will be subpoenaed by Mueller and whatever he decides to do will not win him any more backers - whether he agrees to the demand, pleads the fifth amendment or fights in court giving Mueller a potential stage to parade the reasons why he is subpoenaing him. This all added to the multiple indictments, guilty pleas and cooperation of Trump’s campaign members that the Special Counsel has racked up in a year. Hanging over the Commander in Chief’s head is the fact that his former lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen, is on the verge of joining the Prosecution team. Whatever his former Campaign Manager Paul Manafort decides - cooperation or defense the revelations will not reflect well on Trump. 

in that,  there has been the recent steady media exposes of the endless Russian connections that the Trump team have had. His inauguration had a healthy dose of Putin inner circle oligarchs is just one of the newest exposes. Trump is oblivious to what this all means and has no insight as to what his foreign policy decisions, like a summit with Putin, may look like when Mueller presents his report. 

that there is extraneous litigation on emoluments, his crooked Charitable Foundation that could lead to criminal charges, various women who Cohen paid off and defamation charges by women who accused him of sexual misconduct. All these are in various stages of litigation and pose a threat to Trump as there is ample precedent to depose him in such a situation.

All in all any objective observer might conclude that the Trump Presidency and the Trump Republican Party are standing on the edge of an abyss. What stands between that outcome is the fact that the opposition Democratic Party appear leaderless and have the perception of being split. 

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, (DP), DISARRAY - COME BACK OBAMA

It is reasonable to argue:

that the DP are not presenting a united policy front and appear to be merely a party of opposition rather than an alternative government. For example, while Trump has an unethical and immoral immigration policy at least he has one. 

that the perception that the DP is hopelessly split between Sanders and Clinton factions is not borne out by the Primary results. Sanders in fact endorsed a limited number of candidates and those plus others more left leaning were soundly beaten by more Centrist candidates. Three particularly galling defeats were in Iowa and Pennsylvania. The whole story is now centered around one Primary victory, where a highly personable and articulate Hispanic, Ms Alexandra Ocasio - Cortez beat the number four Democrat in the House in a very low voter turn out by fourteen thousand to twelve thousand votes. No lessor entity than NBC reported this lone victory as a banner night for the progressive wing of the Party. Even Reverend Al Sharpton, who has been around, is telling the progressives to “cool it”. He would not do so if he thought they had the remotest chance of taking over the Party as Trump and his Tea Party have the GOP. He acknowledges the necessity of winning this mid term election.

that what the DP need is a coherent charismatic leader that will challenge Trump for the political oxygen. A leader who has a well articulated DP policy, who can command audiences of tens of thousands. Now there just happens to be such an individual, the immediate past President, Barack Obama. He can go on the campaign trail doing what he enjoys most, campaigning!

that Obama is not keen for a host of reasons. Firstly, he is worried that he is associated with the Clinton defeat - he needn’t worry already twenty percent of those who voted for The Donald have buyer’s remorse. Secondly, he is a “normal” President who is above the fray - abnormal times call for adaptation. Thirdly, he needs this like a hole in the head as it is more comfortable to be the elder statesman - he owes it those he energized and whose hopes he built not to allow America to go to hell in a hand basket. 

SOCIAL MEDIA CAMPAIGN TO INVOLVE OBAMA TO COUNTER THE RUSSIANS!


So the time has come for the social media pundits on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and the rest to conduct a grand swell campaign calling on the previous POTUS to get involved big time. It should be entitled “COME BACK OBAMA”.  The Russians probably have already started and they are sure to agitate for Democrats to back losing positions like abolishing ICE.

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