There is much riding on the forthcoming confirmation hearing of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination. It has been widely reported and not denied that the Republican leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, repeatedly pleaded with the President of the United States not to nominate Kavanaugh and an examination of the facts explains why. Having dumped the problem of ratifying Kavanaugh on Mc Connell, Trump proceeded on an overseas trip where, to unprecedented bipartisan anger, he continued to trash American allies, support their adversaries and pursue a self destructive trade war. In the process his assessment of his scatterbrain interventions was delusional. He summed up his performance as that of being a “Great President”. He further claimed that he had “Great Relationships” with everyone he trashed.
THE HYPOCRITICAL MCCONNELL LEFT TO DELIVER TRUMP’S GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD
Mc Connell knows the stakes if the nomination fails and has every right to feel aggrieved at Trump’s self serving choice. McConnell has sacrificed his reputation on the whole issue of Supreme Court appointments. He unprecedentedly refused to proceed with President Obama’s Supreme Court nomination supposedly because it was a year before elections and “the people should decide”. Now he unashamedly, five months before the mid term elections, has put the forty - fifth President’s pick on a fast track. To add insult to injury Mc Connell, who has destroyed any legacy he may have had, faces this difficult task, made that much difficult by the self serving Trump, with a majority of only one. Within less than a day after nominating Kavanaugh it was being openly alleged that Trump appointed him because he authored a thirty - two page opinion that a President should no be subject to any legal investigation, subpoena, indictment both civil and criminal - in short the President was above the law.
ANGRY SENATE SENDS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT TO AMERICA’S ALLIES
As all hell broke loose with revelations of the controversial positions that Kavanaugh has taken, the divided Senate, unprecedentedly, on the eve of Trump’s NATO visit and meeting with Putin, by a vote of 97 - 2 reaffirmed America’s traditional foreign policy stance. They restated their “ironclad” commitment to NATO and confirmed the American contract to defend any member nation that was attacked. They resolved that his meeting with Putin was “ill advised”. Worse was to follow in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee which then backed Ukraine in their dispute against Russia, condemned the seizure of Crimea and supported Russian sanctions. The next day a bipartisan vote in the Senate censored the President on his trade decisions demanding that he obtain permission from the Senate before using “national security” as a reason for imposing trade tariffs. Again lest their be any doubt as to the intent of this second unprecedented condemnation of the President in as many days, Republican Senator Jeff Flake remarked, “Let’s be clear this is a rebuke of the President’s abuse of trade authority.”
This display by the Senate whereby they undermined the President’s foreign and trade policies while he was attempting to put them into effect was a desperate attempt to let Trump and the world know that Trump was on his own on his madcap mission and had no support even from his own party.
TRUMP UNPHASED.
None of this fuzzed the POTUS as he proceeded with his break with the United State’s traditional democratic alliances. Suspiciously his Commerce Department simultaneously relaxed sanctions on the errant Chinese company XTE who were accused of sanctions busting in North Korea and of stealing American intellectual secrets. This while Trump introduced tariffs of four hundred billion dollars on Chinese goods. Even as the North Korea initiative was shaping up to be a disaster Trump made it quite clear that he was not remotely interested in American values or centuries old alliances. Rather he had a threefold objective to advance his own personal agenda:
* to feed red meat to his base with his paranoia that America was being taken as “smucks” claiming that the USA they was giving more than their fare share to NATO. To support his argument he lied that this was proven by America spending more on their own defense budget than anyone else. This he did knowing full well that not a penny of America’s defense budget goes to NATO:
* to make it quite clear to Putin and all the world that his ally was Russia not NATO, Canada or Mexico. This for reasons that he hoped the world would never learn:
* to create the climate whereby his Presidency could not be challenged either by impeachment or legally. This could be achieved on the one hand by making sure his base remained firm and on the other by electing a judge who could lead the argument that a sitting President could not be charged, indicted or even subpoenaed. He is also being assisted by a group of House Republicans who are building a bogus case, reminiscent of the USSR show trials, against the FBI to discredit the Mueller investigation.
There were only two factors that Trump could not control and they were the mid terms and how the cookie would ultimately crumble with his Supreme Court nomination.
BACKGROUND TO THE RATIFICATION PROCESS
There is every indication that the Kavanaugh ratification will become a major symbolic target in the swelling opposition to Trump. His record covers so many of the foci of anger at the moment that he will emerge as the face of the POTUS. The protests that will accompany this exercise will be humongous and they will morph into the opposition mobilization for the mid terms in November. The pressure that will be put on Senators will be relentless and ongoing. The whole Trump Presidency has been the object of status protestus starting from his inauguration. The day after, what was labelled the Women’s March, featured four million followers across the country.
There is a web site that details the venues of the daily protests across the country entitled “The Resistance Calendar”. The original organizers of the Women’s March have formed a national network of protesting organizations. The major entity in this resistance endeavor is entitled the “Indivisible Movement” which has assisted the formation hundreds of dissenting grassroots entities. They are already mobilizing to pressurize Senators whose votes are thought to be crucial.
There are two other major entities that are presently involved in widespread nation wide outcries. The national “Never Again” organization formed following the Parkland School Shooting has vowed to be active in the elections and the recently formed rebellion against the separation of children from mothers in asylum seekers has radicalized a large section of the population. A country wide protest, a week ago, featured over seven hundred rallies.
As the Trump chaos magnifies - the border cruelty, his scatterbrain trade wars, his bizarre anti - American foreign relations policy and the unfolding Russia investigation his disapproval numbers creep up over fifty percent as his approval numbers settle back at forty percent. Simultaneously, those favoring a Democratic Legislative Congress increases. The DP are favored by more than eight percent - the figure that historically, affords the DP at least the House of Representatives.
All this noise will be hampering Mc Connell’s efforts to carry Trump’s choice over the finishing line.
WHAT CAN GO WRONG WITH THE KAVANAUGH NOMINATION?
The Republicans currently have fifty votes and the DP have forty - nine. That means a united DP vote needs only one GOP member to jump ship. There are at least seven GOP members, Collins, Murkowski, Graham, Corker, Sasse, Paul and Lee that may find one or other position of the nominee’s extensive record objectionable enough not to confirm him. Mc Connell is basing his hopes that three DP Senators who are facing re election in States that went profoundly for Trump in 2016 will not want to antagonize their conservative electorate and go along with the President’s choice. The Senate’s willingness to more easily go against the President, as illustrated lately by their pronouncements on his foreign policy, and the fact that he is making it more and more clear that it is his agenda and not that of the GOP, will make it easier for Senators to cross him on this nomination.
The key issue that pundits believe will swing two GOP members, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, concerns womens reproductive rights generally and the right to abortion specifically. The two have publicly stated that they would cast a negative vote if the nominee would reverse those rights. Now Trump on the campaign trail stated that his litmus test for a Supreme Court nominee was just that. Furthermore, the aspiring nominee’s record seems to support Trump’s assessment as to where he stands. Needless to say, “Indivisible” are already at work in Alaska and Maine, the home of the two Republicans, whipping up support to influence their votes.
An issue which overlaps abortion rights and the hot topic of jailing and separating minors from their parents could be another hot potato for the current Appellate Court Judge. His was a strong minority dissent vote in favor of the Government who sought to prevent a sixteen year old immigrant detainee from obtaining a termination of her pregnancy. When the border scandal erupted McConnell delivered a message to the POTUS informing him that every Republican Senator was against family separation. In addition fourteen GOP Senators joined the DP in rejecting Trump’s immigration plan in the Senate. The fact that the Administration has announced that they will be unable to reunite at least fifty percent of those children under five is going to keep this issue alive forever.
A topic that will be front and center in the hearings is Kavanaugh’s original role in his and Starr's referral for Bill Clinton’s impeachment. He flatly maintained that Clinton’s lying under oath about a sexual relationship was grounds for impeachment. Years later, against all Supreme Court precedent, he wrote a treatise as to why a President was too busy to be charged criminally or civilly. Nor should he be deposed or subpoenaed. Now the Supreme Court held that Clinton could be deposed in a civil case while in USA v Nixon the court maintained that Presidential subpoenas could be issued. In short his position that the President is above the law is at kindest quaint. There are several Republicans who are stout defenders of the Constitution which says nothing of the sort. Furthermore many are outspoken supporters of the Mueller investigation. These include Lindsey Graham who has flat out claimed that if Trump did anything to abort it, “that would be the end of his Presidency”. How many of these upstanding Senators, with this in mind, will endorse him? Nixon needed him on the Bench.
Then the role the Judge played in legitimizing torture in Bush’s Administration will more than raise eyebrows as the practice has been widely condemned by all and sundry including the Senate. More food for thought for the doubters.
The provision under the Affordable Care Act, (ACA), that insurance companies must not prejudice patients who have prior conditions may well come before the Supreme Court. The current assessment is that this pro business judge will support dropping that provision. Conservatives, too, are unhappy in that he agreed with the concept of ACA by saying the compulsory payment can be legitimized by calling it a tax. Health and the economy are the two highest priorities of the electorate. GOP Senators up for election could be vulnerable if they ignore this issue.
He is a strong proponent of the second amendment - gun rights. He needs to tread warily as there are problems in both directions. Three Republicans, Paul. Lee and Kennedy, voted against Trump’s gun measures because he they were against tightening background checks while the rest believe that is where the answer lies.
There are the Conservative constitutional experts who claim that he has no regard for privacy as laid out in the Fourth Amendment as exemplified by him supporting right of the National Security Agency to spy on “innocent Americans”.
With this quagmire facing McConnell the latter has to believe that his best bet is to persuade the three DP Senators, that are up for re - election in States that Trump roundly won. However much pressure the GOP Senate Leader may be able to assert he will not be able to match the campaign the likes of Indivisible can initiate.
WHAT IF KAVANAUGH IS NOT CONFIRMED?
It is believed that this process which has been put in the fast track will take over two months. If Kavanaugh fails to get through thenTrump has to renominate. That would bring the confirmation process right on top of the November elections. Bearing in mind that McConnell is already in the public stocks for his hypocrisy of refusing an Obama nominee over a year before an election and allowing this one to go forward even he would be hard pressed to proceed.
In addition an adverse outcome would give the opposition forces a massive boost and would be yet another major set back for Trump. Most importantly if the DP regain the Senate in this current partisan climate no Trump nominee of this ilk would ever see the light of day. That would leave the Supreme Court at a tie which would halt all extreme Conservative initiatives. The Chief Justice has not a casting vote in the event of a tie. The effect of that is that the Appellate Court decision stands. Up till now the majority of these have ruled in favor of individual rights.
AT THE END OF THE DA
So as Trump braggagogios on, his former allies begin to make adjustments to a world without the USA. At home the chaos continues as Mueller relentlessly tighens the noose with indictments of twelve more Russians, while Trump fights "the witch hunt"for his life, using every possible strategy.
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