THE NOOSE TIGHTENS AS TRUMP FLOUNDERS IN EVERY DIRECTION

News is breaking so fast, on so many fronts, that it is difficult for micromanaging Trump to stamp out all the fires. Mueller is allowing, for the most part, the legal system to do the talking, while Trump is focussing on attempting to neutralize his former acolyte Michael Cohen. 

All this is taking place to the background: 

*of the crucial midterm elections that could spell disaster to the Presidency, 

*the ratification of the controversial nomination of Supreme Court Judge, Brett Kavanaugh, 

*the on and off invitation to Russian President Putin in the light of the disastrous Helsinki meeting, 

*the trade tariffs that have caused panic amongst the faithful, 

*the crisis precipitated by the cruel, inept and incompetent border policy where hundreds of children are destined never to be united with their parents, 

*the growing braziness of the security establishment to openly oppose his denials on the Russian intervention in his favor in the 2016 Presidential elections, 

*the revelations that Trump knew about pay offs to shut women up prior to the election that could have contravened the Electoral Act - just to mention just some of the problems facing the POTUS as he tweets about the indecisiveness of the National Football League to act against players who are protesting in favor of “Black Lives Matter”

Then of course there is the breaking news that the Russians have begun their hacking, in spite of Trump’s reassuring noises. This action was detected by Microsoft. The first known target being Claire Mc Caskill from Missouri, who is the most vulnerable Democrat in the upcoming Senate elections

WHOSE HELPING THE LEADER?

The bleak assistance The Donald is getting includes a few House Republicans who have sought to impeach Mueller supervisor Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein while his deranged television lawyer Rudi Giuliani seems to believe that if he releases damning information on his client first it doesn’t count. Even the ranks of the Murdoch Empire are thinning with the Wall Street Journal joining the Washington Post and the New York Times in devastating exposes. Murdoch’s New York Daily Post is increasingly critical and even Fox News just couldn’t tolerate his Helsinki fawning and throwing his own Security Establishment under the bus in favor of an American adversary, Vladimir Putin. Only Sean Hannity remains firm in the Trump firm. 

THE INDICTMENTS OF THE TWELVE KREMLIN HACKERS

Looking at the indictments thus far it does not take rocket science to join the dots and see what a vast Russian conspiracy there was to support The Donald. MSNBC’S Rachel Maddow is the mavin at this past time.

 If one surveys  the detailed indictment of the twelve Russian hackers, from the heart of the Kremlin, and their liaison with Wikileaks and juxtaposes it with the fact that Trump basically won the Presidency by seventy thousand votes in a few Mid West states, the argument by former Intelligence Agents that the Russians indeed gave Trump the Presidency begins to ring true. For starters the Russians backed Bernie Sanders against Hillary in the primaries. They then trolled big time that Bernie Sanders supporters shouldn’t back Clinton in the Presidential. They supported the total nonentity, Jill Stein, with a vengeance. In two key states that Hillary lost, Michigan and Wisconsin, Steins’s vote was far more than Trump’s majority over Clinton. 

Then guess what happened a day after the Russians hacked the Democratic Party analytics? You guessed right if you said the Trump Campaign  cancelled a ton of advertising and moved the money to the key Mid Western States that gave The Donald the Presidency. One other juicy tit bit hidden in the detailed indictment was the flood of Democratic and Hillary hacks that were unleashed soon after Trump exhorted, “Russia if you listening, release Hillary’s deleted e -mails…

THE RUSSIAN AGENT

Straight from a spy novel there is Maria Butina who in the daylight penetrated the inner sanctums of the GOP, its closest institutional ally the National Rifle Organization and the National Prayer Breakfast, which is a happening that involves a whose who in the Evangelical Movement.  Again there was an unusually detailed indictment of an agent whose controller was a close associate of Putin. The indictment more than hints at the close association certain Republicans had with Russian figures.  Just focussing on the NRA where Ms. Butina was a special guest of its President, in the past, it has been more than alleged that Russian money was laundered through that organization to support Trump’s election bid. Thirty million dollars was the NRA cost to support Trump, an extraordinary sum for the organization. She apparently cohabited with an Eric Erickson who she used to assist her in getting Russian infiltration into the NRA.

Although this charge is ostensibly independent of Mueller there is no doubt that it will be linked sooner or later and there are more and more revelations to come.

OTHER TRUMP HASSLES

*While Paul Manafort, Trump’s Campaign Manager’s trial is principally about his illicit financial dealings it has been leaked that there will be insights into the campaign. Remember he is credited with engineering the change in the GOP election platform to soften sanctions against Russia. His life long deputy Rick Gates, who was also his back up for the Trump gig, is giving evidence for the State. There are also five others who have been given immunity to spill the beans.

*Trump’s first National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn is still leaking like a sieve as is his former political advisor George Papadopolous.  There are persistent rumors that his other political advisors Roger Stone and Carter Page are on Muller’s radar screen for their “collusion” with Russia. 

*The Cohen revelations to pay offs to a porn star and another Playboy affair have to be hurting but even more significant is what else is out there on Cohen’s tapes. The fact that Giuliani is allegedly leaking some of them cannot be improving Trump’s cause. The fact too that the POTUS”S life long Financial Officer and tax preparer has been subpoenaed in the Cohen investigation has to send chills down his spine.

*Michael Avanti, the porn star Stormy Daniel’s lawyer, is reportedly representing three other women Trump payed off. Avanti has hinted that the money exchange was motivated by concerns of pregnancy.

*The courts have allowed the Emoluments charges against him to go ahead which could expose the conflict of interest that exists between his businesses and the Presidency.

*Kim Jong Un is still stringing him along and his threats to blot out Iran are empty. All this and Putin detracting from what is left of his strongman image. 

*His one hope for major backing, the House of Representatives, has let him down. Paul Ryan refused to take up the motion to impeach Rod Rosenstein. The reality that he cannot axe the witch hunt is finally hitting home

*The GOP legislators are none too exited by his “welfare offer” to farmers to compensate for lost income as a result of his trade wars.

TRUMP FINALLY BOWS TO POLITICAL GRAVITY

None of this can help the mid term election hopes and he has to stand by and just hope Mueller hasn’t the goods. In addition he has realized that the Trade Wars and Putin’s visit are not vote catchers. He has bowed to pressure to abandon some of these for another day. Trump has also backed off on axing the Obamacare provision protecting those with preconditions. His destructive threat to shut down the government if he doesn’t get his own way is now off the table - all too little too late.

At the end of the day there are just to many moving parts to this and there is naught for his comfort. The biggest revelation will be when, it is politically expedient, he will be abandoned by the Republican legislators whom he has not hesitated to ridicule in the past.

So for the most part Trump will focus his bile on Michael Cohen not learning that he is not the putz he was perceived to be. “The Fixer” took insurance against Trump instead of taking a bullet for him. All this a distraction and not designed to persuade Independents to vote for his party in the midterms. 

TRUMP’S AMERICA AFTER HELSINKI.

It is fair to say that Trump’s oversea trip, which ended with a sonic boom in Helsinki, evinced a political earthquake in America. If it was aimed at making America Great Again it failed. It served more to reinforce the believers that Putin has “the goods” on Trump than anything else - a terrifying allegation that should spur all patriots to get to the truth. The major American impact of the visit, the world order having been turned upside down, was on the Republican Party representatives in Congress who were at sixes and sevens as to how to respond.

The almost universal negative response to the Trump performance seemed to unhinge the ostensible leader of the free world even further. He had already defined himself a “stable genius” and a “great president”. He has continued his theme that Americans were stupid and foolish and that those who criticized his press conference with Putin were of “low intellect”. 

He belatedly attempted damage control which has never been his strong suit only to further muddy the waters. However, after several back and forths, he left no doubt as to how he really felt on the issue, when he tweeted: “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U. S. foolishness and stupidity and now the Rigged Witch Hunt.” Then to gasps of shock and amazement Trump agreed to consider handing over the former American Ambassador to Russia for questioning. Not for the first time this week a Trump Department criticized the President when the State Department rejected this demand out of hand. 

Ambassador McFaul and eleven others apparently were being targeted as a quid pro quo to Mueller’s comprehensive indictment against the twelve Russian hackers. To show how crazy this equivalency would be, the Russian Prosecutorial team were involved in the election interference! Whereas the US Justice Department, which includes Mueller, is an independent institution Putin controls it all in Russia. Having initially praised the interrogation idea to the skies in Helsinki. “an incredible offer”, Trump ultimately backed off nixing it apologetically claiming that it was a sincere contribution by Putin. Obviously the POTUS was spurred on by the Senate 98 - 0 vote in condemning the move

The most damning revelation of this ongoing saga was a New York Times story that President Trump was given conclusive evidence, weeks before his inauguration, that Putin had personally ordered the interference in the election in order to ensure his victory.

Meanwhile the President is still clarifying, denying, walking back and the like as to whether Russia influenced the election in his favor…… He is however clear on the fact that it is the media that are to blame as they want America to go to war with Russia. All this echoes his years long smear campaign that Obama was born in Kenya when he grudgingly admitted that he was born in the USA.

IT’S THE RUSSIAN THING STUPID

The “Russian Thing” has dogged the reality TV star from Day One and Jay H. Ell believes his ever increasing erratic behavior is part of his last ditch stand as the Mueller noose tightens. He could not have backed Putin’s “strong” denials at a worse time as his sojourn was bookended by two detailed indictments of high ranking Russian Intelligence agents, twelve of whom had hacked inter alia the DNC and Hillary’s campaign chairman. The other agent charged is a Russian student who has been connected to Russian intelligence. She is now under arrest. It is alleged that she infiltrated the NRA and appears to have colluded with person or persons as yet not named. Just in case that wasn’t bad enough his Campaign Manager’s trial was due to start the next week and Mueller’s team had five surprise witnesses who were in fact “co conspirators”. 

In all this the Republicans were reeling as to how to respond.

THE REPUBLICAN DILEMA

The many constituencies of what now constitutes the Republican Party predictably had widely diverse responses to their leader’s performance. From what is known of the forty percent base there is very little defection. He is still the gospel. This is the crowd that the POTUS plays too, whom he magically contends will keep in him office by re electing him in 2020. On the other end of the GOP spectrum - the former Establishment, the intellectuals, the pundits and the former heads of the Intelligence services there is open warfare. The divorce is final. Several such as George Will and even James Comey are exhorting the Republicans to vote for the Democrats in the mid terms. 

When his most loyal campaign sycophant Newt Gingrich labelled his “major triumph” in Helsinki the “biggest mistake of his Presidency” and his echo chamber, Fox News, called his patriotism into question, Trump knew that his fawning of the Russian despot was just too much. The rest of Republican family condemned, in varying degrees, the President’s sell out.

The key constituency in this matter is the GOP Legislature. The most vocal rebukes emanated from those not standing for re election in November.  John McCain issued a stinging rebuke to the POTUS. However he too, because of his illness, is considered a lame duck. Both Republican leaders, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, have made it quite clear that they support the Intelligence Agencies. In truth other than the lunatic fringe of the House Freedom Party, who are looking to impeach Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein, there has been no support for the President outside of maverick Rand Paul.

The Republicans know that the most effective response to their out of control leader would be at the ballot box but they can hardly run against him especially when he has still has the base solidly behind him. The question is how to parlay this crisis where they have to defend the integrity of the country’s institutions, value system and allies against this “treasonous” behavior. The Senate has a number of motions. The most far reaching motion they proposed was a refutation of Putin’s denial and a demand for an immediate enactment of the sanctions they had passed on Russia. In addition the relevant Senate Committees were asked to hold hearings as to what had transpired at the Putin/Trump private meeting. This motion could not be passed by unanimous consent because the second ranking Republican member believed that was just a “symbolic act”. He argued that the Senate needed to look at the possibility of adding additional Russian sanctions. 

As matters stand there up to fifty House seats within the Democratic Party reach. These will not be decided by Trump’s base but rather by Dems turn out, Independents and a distinct minority of Republicans that are switching away from Trump, so what is the point of playing to the Trump gallery? Trump’s perfidy is not ending now and sooner or later the legislators are going to have to at least censor the President. No longer can anyone go around arguing whether or not Mueller Investigation is a “witch hunt” and give the POTUS the benefit of the doubt. 

In the final analysis the Republican Legislators have stuck to their party political needs over their patriotic duty. The House wouldn’t even vote more resources to fight the potential interference in the midterm elections.

WHERE IS TRUMP’S AMERICA NOW?

 Jay H. Ell has argued Trump’s behavior is directly related to the fact that the Mueller investigation is closing in. In spite of his supposed walking back of his disastrous oversea trip he has already doubled down by inviting Putin to the WhiteHouse. He has unprecedentedly attacked the independent Federal Reserve informing them that their actions are impacting on the great economy he has created. The POTUS has threatened more trade tariffs which could push up the cost of motor cars between fourteen hundred to seven thousand dollars. He also is still calling the Mueller probe a “witch hunt”.

The crises in the country are escalating. The immigration mess is not resolving and is only getting worse with the Administration unable to unite parents with their children. The country’s deficit is en route for the first time to a trillion dollars which is being ascribed to Trump’s income tax “reform”. The indictments and revelations relating to the “Russian Thing” are snowballing while Trump’s Intelligence Agencies feel more and more comfortable to openly criticize him. His handpicked Federal Reserve Chairman reported to Congress that countries that had free trade triumphed over those that instituted tariffs. As Judge Kavanaugh has ruled in every one of the hot issues facing the country and most significantly believes that the President cannot be indicted or subpoenaed, his confirmation becomes more and more dicey. A rejection of Kavanaugh would be a major set back for the POTUS.

The over riding factor in Trump’s America is still going to be the “Russian Thing”. The past week, in between the indictments, the revelation emerged that Trump was given incontrovertible evidence, prior to his inauguration, that Putin had intervened in the Presidential election added to the disastrous summit in Helsinki. All this has given the Mueller investigation more credibility. This in turn will evince more reaction from the embattled POTUS. What Trump is unable to understand is that Putin’s visit will result in even more attention to his attack on American democracy and his fascist like actions in Crimea and assassinations on foreign soil. Nothing can wish away what the former Russian KGB agent has done and who he is. 

Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein has stated that he will warn the public of the foreign interventions as they happen. In case anyone misses the significance of his independent announcement he is not hanging around waiting for Trump’s permission before doing so. Watch this space as the Intelligence Agencies have said Putin is on the job again.

All this will motivate the opposition base even more and eventually force the Republican Legislative majorities to become more and more critical of their leader and hopefully ensure an exhaustive examination as to whether he is indeed compromised or not by the Russians.

The good news is that we haven’t heard too much about that wall that Mexico is going to pay for, lately….

BIZARRE TRUMP STRUTS ON THE WORLD STAGE DUMPING JUDGE KAVANAUGH’S RATIFICATION ON MCCONNELL

There is much riding on the forthcoming confirmation hearing of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination. It has been widely reported and not denied that the Republican leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, repeatedly pleaded with the President of the United States not to nominate Kavanaugh and an examination of the facts explains why. Having dumped the problem of ratifying Kavanaugh on Mc Connell, Trump proceeded on an overseas trip where, to unprecedented bipartisan anger, he continued to trash American allies, support their adversaries and pursue a self destructive trade war. In the process his assessment of his scatterbrain interventions was delusional. He summed up his performance as that of being a “Great President”. He further claimed that he had “Great Relationships” with everyone he trashed. 

THE HYPOCRITICAL MCCONNELL LEFT TO DELIVER  TRUMP’S GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD

Mc Connell knows the stakes if the nomination fails and has every right to feel aggrieved at Trump’s self serving choice. McConnell has sacrificed his reputation on the whole issue of Supreme Court appointments. He unprecedentedly refused to proceed with President Obama’s  Supreme Court nomination supposedly because it was a year before elections and “the people should decide”. Now he unashamedly, five months before the mid term elections, has put the forty - fifth President’s pick on a fast track. To add insult to injury Mc Connell, who has destroyed any legacy he may have had, faces this difficult task, made that much difficult by the self serving Trump, with a majority of only one. Within less than a day after nominating Kavanaugh it was being openly alleged that Trump appointed him because he authored a thirty - two page opinion that a President should no be subject to any legal investigation, subpoena, indictment both civil and criminal - in short the President was above the law. 

ANGRY SENATE SENDS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT TO AMERICA’S ALLIES 

As all hell broke loose with revelations of the controversial positions that Kavanaugh has taken, the divided Senate, unprecedentedly, on the eve of Trump’s  NATO visit and meeting with Putin, by a vote of 97 - 2 reaffirmed America’s traditional foreign policy stance. They restated their “ironclad” commitment to NATO and confirmed the American contract to defend any member nation that was attacked. They resolved that his meeting with Putin was “ill advised”. Worse was to follow in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee which then backed Ukraine in their dispute against Russia, condemned the seizure of  Crimea and supported Russian sanctions. The next day a bipartisan vote in the Senate censored the President on his trade decisions demanding that he obtain permission from the Senate before using “national security” as a reason for imposing trade tariffs. Again lest their be any doubt as to the intent of this second unprecedented condemnation of the President in as many days, Republican Senator Jeff Flake remarked, “Let’s be clear this is a rebuke of the President’s abuse of trade authority.” 

This display by the Senate whereby they undermined the President’s foreign and trade policies while he was attempting to put them into effect was a desperate attempt to let Trump and the world know that Trump was on his own on his madcap mission and had no support even from his own party. 

TRUMP UNPHASED.

None of this fuzzed the POTUS as he proceeded with his break with the United State’s traditional democratic alliances. Suspiciously his Commerce Department simultaneously relaxed sanctions on the errant Chinese company XTE who were accused of sanctions busting in North Korea and of stealing American intellectual secrets. This while Trump introduced tariffs of four hundred billion dollars on Chinese goods. Even as the North Korea initiative was shaping up to be a disaster Trump made it quite clear that he was not remotely interested in American values or centuries old alliances. Rather he had a threefold objective to advance his own personal agenda: 

* to feed red meat to his base with his paranoia that America was being taken as “smucks” claiming that the USA they was giving more than their fare share to NATO. To support his argument he lied that this was proven by America spending more on their own defense budget than anyone else. This he did knowing full well that not a penny of America’s defense budget goes to NATO:

* to make it quite clear to Putin and all the world that his ally was Russia not NATO, Canada or Mexico. This for reasons that he hoped the world would never learn:

* to create the climate whereby his Presidency could not be challenged either by impeachment or legally. This could be achieved on the one hand by making sure his base remained firm and on the other by electing a judge who could lead the argument that a sitting President could not be charged, indicted or even subpoenaed. He is also being assisted by a group of House Republicans who are building a bogus case, reminiscent of the USSR show trials, against the FBI to discredit the Mueller investigation.

There were only two factors that Trump could not control and they were the mid terms and how the cookie would ultimately crumble with his Supreme Court nomination.

BACKGROUND TO THE RATIFICATION PROCESS

There is every indication that the Kavanaugh ratification will become a major symbolic target in the swelling opposition to Trump. His record covers so many of the foci of anger at the moment that he will emerge as the face of the POTUS. The protests that will accompany this exercise will be humongous and they will morph into the opposition mobilization for the mid terms in November. The pressure that will be put on Senators will be relentless and ongoing. The whole Trump Presidency has been the object of status protestus starting from his inauguration. The day after, what was labelled the Women’s March, featured four million followers across the country. 

There is a web site that details the venues of the daily protests across the country entitled “The Resistance Calendar”. The original organizers of the Women’s March have formed a national network of protesting organizations. The major entity in this resistance endeavor is entitled the “Indivisible Movement” which has assisted the formation hundreds of dissenting grassroots entities. They are already mobilizing to pressurize Senators whose votes are thought to be crucial. 

There are two other major entities that are presently involved in widespread nation wide outcries. The national “Never Again” organization formed following the Parkland School Shooting has vowed to be active in the elections and the recently formed rebellion against the separation of children from mothers in asylum seekers has radicalized a large section of the population. A country wide protest, a week ago, featured over seven hundred rallies. 

As the Trump chaos magnifies - the border cruelty, his scatterbrain trade wars, his bizarre anti - American foreign relations policy and the unfolding Russia investigation his disapproval numbers creep up over fifty percent as his approval numbers settle back at forty percent. Simultaneously, those favoring a Democratic Legislative Congress increases. The DP are favored by more than eight percent - the figure that historically, affords the DP at least the House of Representatives.

All this noise will be hampering Mc Connell’s efforts to carry Trump’s choice over the finishing line.

WHAT CAN GO WRONG WITH THE KAVANAUGH NOMINATION?

The Republicans currently have fifty votes and the DP have forty - nine. That means a united DP vote needs only one GOP member to jump ship. There are at least seven GOP members, Collins, Murkowski, Graham, Corker, Sasse, Paul and Lee that may find one or other position of the nominee’s extensive record objectionable enough not to confirm him. Mc Connell is basing his hopes that three DP Senators who are facing re election in States that went profoundly for Trump in 2016 will not want to antagonize their conservative electorate and go along with the President’s choice. The Senate’s willingness to more easily go against the President, as illustrated lately by their pronouncements on his foreign policy, and the fact that he is making it more and more clear that it is his agenda and not that of the GOP, will make it easier for Senators to cross him on this nomination.

The key issue that pundits believe will swing two GOP members, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, concerns womens reproductive rights generally and the right to abortion specifically. The two have publicly stated that they would cast a negative vote if the nominee would reverse those rights. Now Trump on the campaign trail stated that his litmus test for a Supreme Court nominee was just that. Furthermore, the aspiring nominee’s record seems to support Trump’s assessment as to where he stands. Needless to say, “Indivisible” are already at work in Alaska and Maine, the home of the two Republicans, whipping up support to influence their votes.

An issue which overlaps abortion rights and the hot topic of jailing and separating minors from their parents could be another hot potato for the current Appellate Court Judge. His was a strong minority dissent vote in favor of the Government who sought to prevent a sixteen year old immigrant detainee from obtaining a termination of her pregnancy. When the border scandal erupted McConnell delivered a message to the POTUS informing him that every Republican Senator was against family separation. In addition fourteen GOP Senators joined the DP in rejecting Trump’s immigration plan in the Senate. The fact that the Administration has announced that they will be unable to reunite at least fifty percent of those children under five is going to keep this issue alive forever.

A topic that will be front and center in the hearings is Kavanaugh’s original role in his and Starr's referral for Bill Clinton’s impeachment. He flatly maintained that Clinton’s lying under oath about a sexual relationship was grounds for impeachment. Years later, against all Supreme Court precedent, he wrote a treatise as to why a President was too busy to be charged criminally or civilly. Nor should he be deposed or subpoenaed. Now the Supreme Court held that Clinton could be deposed in a civil case while in USA v Nixon the court maintained that Presidential subpoenas could be issued. In short his position that the President is above the law is at kindest quaint. There are several Republicans who are stout defenders of the Constitution which says nothing of the sort. Furthermore many are outspoken supporters of the Mueller investigation. These include Lindsey Graham who has flat out claimed that if Trump did anything to abort it, “that would be the end of his Presidency”. How many of these upstanding Senators, with this in mind, will endorse him? Nixon needed him on the Bench.

Then the role the Judge played in legitimizing torture in Bush’s Administration will more than raise eyebrows as the practice has been widely condemned by all and sundry including the Senate. More food for thought for the doubters. 

The provision under the Affordable Care Act, (ACA), that insurance companies must not prejudice patients who have prior conditions may well come before the Supreme Court. The current assessment is that this pro business judge will support dropping that provision. Conservatives, too, are unhappy in that he agreed with the concept of ACA by saying the compulsory payment can be legitimized by calling it a tax. Health and the economy are the two highest priorities of the electorate. GOP Senators up for election could be vulnerable if they ignore this issue.  

He is a strong proponent of the second amendment - gun rights. He needs to tread warily as there are problems in both directions. Three Republicans, Paul. Lee and Kennedy, voted against Trump’s gun measures because he they were against tightening background checks while the rest believe that is where the answer lies.

There are the Conservative constitutional experts who claim that he has no regard for privacy as laid out in the Fourth Amendment as exemplified by him supporting right of the National Security Agency to spy on “innocent Americans”.

With this quagmire facing McConnell the latter has to believe that his best bet is to persuade the three DP Senators, that are up for re - election in States that Trump roundly won. However much pressure the GOP Senate Leader may be able to assert he will not be able to match the campaign the likes of Indivisible can initiate. 

WHAT IF KAVANAUGH IS NOT CONFIRMED?

It is believed that this process which has been put in the fast track will take over two months. If Kavanaugh fails to get through thenTrump has to renominate. That would bring the confirmation process right on top of the November elections. Bearing in mind that McConnell is already in the public stocks for his hypocrisy of refusing an Obama nominee over a year before an election and allowing this one to go forward even he would be hard pressed to proceed.

 In addition an adverse outcome would give the opposition forces a massive boost and would be yet another major set back for Trump. Most importantly if the DP regain the Senate in this current partisan climate no Trump nominee of this ilk would ever see the light of day. That would leave the Supreme Court at a tie which would halt all extreme Conservative initiatives. The Chief Justice has not a casting vote in the event of a tie. The effect of that is that the Appellate Court decision stands. Up till now the majority of these have ruled in favor of individual rights.

AT THE END OF THE DA

So as Trump braggagogios on, his former allies begin to make adjustments to a world without the USA. At home the chaos continues as Mueller relentlessly tighens the noose with indictments of twelve more Russians, while Trump fights  "the witch hunt"for his life, using every possible strategy.

THE SOCCER WORLD CUP AND THE U ESS A

At this point in time the world’s most popular sport, soccer or Association Football, is celebrating its quadrennial jamboree, The World Cup, in Russia. There are an estimated three and a half billion soccer fans in the world that is over half of the world’s total population. The TV viewership of one or another game in the tournament is also estimated at the same number while the final has over a billion viewers as compared to about one tenth of that number for the American Football Super Bowl. 

The thirty - top soccer playing countries participate having won their regional contests and include contestants from every continent on the globe except North America. For example Croatia and Uruguay which have populations around four million qualified while the United States of America, the richest and most powerful nation with close to four hundred million, did not make the cut. They were beaten out in a weak section by Panama that has four million souls. Finally, to show that this is all about quality and not quantity, Iceland made the grade with a team selected from a total of only three hundred and thirty - four thousand inhabitants! 

The question is why this sports crazed country is AWOL from the world’s most popular past time, and the answer, Jay H. Ell believes, is reflective of the unique culture and way of life of the Americans versus that of the rest of mankind.

AMERICA’S POPULAR SPORTS VERSUS THE WORLD’S NUMBER ONE - SOCCER

Winners and losers

If one examines the four top team sports in America, ranked according to their popularity, they are American Football, Baseball, Basketball and Ice Hockey. Now in every one of those activities all the games, whether they be league or knockout, has to have a winner. They will play on and on till one team merges triumphant. On the other hand a draw or a tie is very much part of the soccer game. Throughout the world the percentage of draws in soccer games  varies between about fifteen and thirty - five percent with the median being about twenty - five percent. Another statistic that will confirm to the Americans that soccer is dull is the fact that in a one hundred and twenty - six years of English soccer there have been thirteen thousand four hundred and seventy - five draws! 

The other parameter that there is a wide disparity between the U Ess A and the rest of the world is in the scoring.  Generally speaking the team pastimes on the American continent run up high numbers while in soccer the hits are, by comparison infinitesimal. In the four top English football leagues between the years of 2013 and 2014, nearly fifty percent of the encounters resulted in three or fewer goals and about seventy percent four or less. 

The fact that the rest of the world can tolerate that a sports encounter doesn’t have to have a winner and a loser is an anathema to American culture. There have to be winners and losers. Added to that is when soccer fans drool about mid field domination and artistry they leave the American sports adherents stone cold. Likewise how anyone can feel fulfilled and serene after ninety minutes of a goalless draw is a total enigma to sports followers in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. Territorial advantage has to be rewarded with a score time and again. The spectator needs positive reinforcement that he/she is getting his/her money’s worth!  

As far as the difficulty to score a soccer goal is concerned this results in weaker tactical teams being able, to the satisfactions of the fans, to give the stronger teams a run for their money. The vast lopsided scores so apparent in American team sports are less common in soccer.

Neither has the laid back rest of the world taken to their American cousins’ desire for winners and losers on very occasion nor can they identify with their lack of frustration tolerance which demands, constantly, instant gratification in the form of scoring.

Entertainment, the Media and Commerce

It is almost certain that when twentieth century culture is reviewed that America will be seen to have dominated in the field of entertainment. What was produced for the home market in the field of music - light or classical, stage, cinema and television dominated the world’s leisure time as well. Central on the home front was the “box” where TV channels sprouted like weeds and programs that had sporting events could demand highly paid commercials. The latter cost up to five million dollars for a thirty - second slot in the Super Bowl. 

Now guess what American Football, baseball, basketball and ice hockey have in common with regard to the flow of play? If you offered that all are punctuated, with monotonous regularity, by breaks in the play then you are spot on. No prizes for what material fills those breaks - profitable commercials. This produces a close looped feedback system that economically sustains these sports as top priority. The TV stations pay fortunes for the rights to the encounters. Most of that money bolsters the sports and the players’ salaries attracting more and more talent to these recreations. A sport like soccer that has no breaks does not lend itself to the big time and in spite of efforts to bring it to the fore till it can somehow overcome this “flaw” it will remain in the American doldrums.  

This commercial arrangement is reinforced on every level. College football is a major industry in America. Saturday is devoted to College Football with all its commercial breaks and Sunday is for their senior counterparts. There are TV channels devoted to football. Both it and basketball have coaches that, more often than not, have higher salaries than the University Presidents. Then there is Friday Night High School Football games which are attended by the whole town that add to the institutionalization of the sport.

Ironically more schoolchildren play soccer than any other sport, but generally for outside clubs.  However there are not the same opportunities for those that excel compared participants in the American mainstays.

Cost and Opportunity to Play

The great American past times are very expensive to play, particularly Football and Ice Hockey. The gear and equipment are costly items whereas soccer is played wherever there is an open space and anything that will pass for a ball. There is also a far high injury rate for the American games, especially for those playing with the oval ball.

 As sport is considered so important in the educational centers it is cost effective to provide the anointed few that are good enough for the teams with the necessary gear and other perks. It is noteworthy that the accent is the quality of players not the number of those participating. Soccer on the other hand has room and leagues for all those interested. 

While a few Colleges provide scholarships for soccer players they pale into insignificance compared to those who chase after High School prospects in the traditional team sports, particularly, football and basketball. So it is uphill for the talent who kick the roundball who wish to graduate to sport professionalism. So the nursery in education for sportsmen does not foster the talent that will allow America to take on the likes of Brazil, Belgium, Germany or Nigeria.

THE FUTURE

Currently there is a very vigorous Major Soccer League, (MSL), of twenty - three teams from America and Canada. Interest and crowds have grown over the past few years and soccer specific stadia have been built. Attendances have risen and exceed those of the ice hockey crowds. Enthusiasm has been fostered by encouraging teams to recruit international stars at the end of the careers. These have included England’s famed David Beckham who went to Los Angeles and this year the Manchester United legend Wayne Rooney is off to Washington DC. Each year two major European teams are brought to play at various centers for the “International Cup”. The matches are sold out.  Manchester City is being featured against the winner of the German league and are scheduled to compete in 2018.

The major talking point this seasons is the new franchise Atlanta United FC which is owned by Home Depot co founder Arthur Blank. The team has staggered all by drawing home crowds of up to seventy thousand spectators. The MSL has been strengthened by all teams amalgamating into a single unit and the fact that they have secured a TV contract has finally made league soccer financially viable.

USA, together with Mexica and Canada, have secured the 2026 World Cup which they hope will stimulate the game. Truth be told there has been slow and steady progress over the past quarter century since the last World Cup was held in America in 1994. What has stimulated the growth is the participation of the growing Latino population in America. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Only a quarter of the American population are interested in the current World Cup as compared to whole populations elsewhere. Jay H. Ell sees no dramatic change in America as the cultural, institutional and economic factors still favor the unique American traditional sports. This hampers the creation of a nursery of talent that can be made available to the soccer league. Only a handful of American players have played in the hard school of European league soccer where most of the World Cup players hone their skills. So while soccer seems finally to have established itself in America there does not appear to be the wherewithal to lift it from the current doldrums of mediocrity onto the World Stage.