TRUMP’S LAST STAND

Donald J. Trump, the forty - fifth President of the United States, who will go down in history more for his survival instincts than his political philosophy or skills, is on his last. He had successfully survived the jungle of the Manhattan real estate business and Atlanta casino business with the scars of four bankruptcies, and he came out tops in the highly cut throat combativeness of reality television. Riding that success he started a lucrative franchise business where others did the work and took the risks while all the while, according to his son, Trump Inc. was conducting most of its real estate dealings with Russia.Through it all he escaped relatively unscathed in over three and a half thousand litigations that his activities engendered, Then came the Presidency, which was a whole new ballgame, where he soon became mired in crisis after crisis, threatening his very existence.  His response was predictable - go on the offensive. His latest effort is to create a massive diversion claiming that the country’s very identity, security and economy was threatened by illegal immigration.

THE CRISES IN DONALD’S NEW COMPANY

In his new vocation he was the most powerful man in the world and he attacked the task at hand with the same gusto, self confidence, dishonesty and loads of b - ess as he done all his life. The latest gig had too many moving parts for him to assume his usual micromanaging dictatorial style of governance where he made all the decisions. So after about five hundred days in office he faced an existential crisis. His past was under a microscope and every action or statement of his being analyzed so his wiggle room was non existent as his moral turpitude, lying and duplicity was being exposed, 24/7. Contemporaneously he was being investigated by the full might of the FBI and faced extraneous litigation which with his public profile he could not easily sleeze out of. He thus needed to call upon all those skills, and more, that had allowed him to survive these past seventy years, to triumph in the mess he was now in.

You see Donald J. Trump was not able to fully manage his new enterprise. He was now head of an organization with close on four hundred million shareholders whose bye laws dictated how governorship should be effected. To his intense irritation certain sections of the company he headed were not under his control. Even appointees that worked for him could defy his will. Some were even investigating him. Further to his chagrin he could even be thrown out by a section of the company that he was ostensibly the leader of. The time had come for him to take control of his destiny. He was sick and tired of stultifying advice from his legislators whom he was supposedly dependent on to getting anything done. The legislators had done nothing for him. They would not give him money for his wall making him look stupid. They squabbled among themselves and most recently had failed to deliver and support him on the issue that he had elected to make his last stand - immigration. 

“LET DONALD BE DONALD”

He would have to take matters into his own hands. Other heads, like Putin, Kim Jung Un and Xi Jinping never faced these problems. Why should he?

It was with all this in mind he embarked on the solution of “zero tolerance” on the scourge of illegal immigration. While the problem had de - escalated in the past twenty years he never was troubled by facts as he had alternate ones.  Between 1980 to the year 2000 the Government was apprehending between a million to a million and a half “Illegals” a year. This number had declined to thirty - five thousand under President Obama and the figure now stood at approximately twenty - five thousand. Contrary to his mantra the majority of those approaching the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave were refugees. And they were not being despatched by the Mexican Government, “… who were not sending their best but druggists, rapists, murderers and gang members”, rather they were refugees from Central America.  In fact there has been a net decrease in Mexica's immigration to the US

So what started on the escalator of Trump Tower and to his mind got him the top job would once again put him back in total control and make all those attempts to dislodge him, politically unsustainable.

THE FINAL SOLUTION - “Zero Tolerance” and more “Zero Tolerance”.

Like all populist demagogues you need to persuade the discontented how bad they really have it and that the simplistic solution to their problems is to get rid of some vermin race or nation who are causing their woes so as to restore their national identity.  The Donald has played this card from the word go since elected and has come unstuck both with the Muslim travel ban and his ongoing vendetta against the Mexicans. If interim elections are the yardstick by which to measure success the program is not working. There have been close on fifty reversals, State and National, since Trump was ensconced in his new vocation. However, the Don is blaming everyone else for this trend. Only under his sole leadership will this succeed. The fact that to date this initiative has been a disaster is irrelevant it is just the reason to double down. There would now be the zero tolerance immigration policy.

The kick off of the new initiative was by dynamo Jeff Sessions who announced that the policy would inter alia separate children from parents as well as obliterate asylum as grounds for entry into the USA. Within two short months with close on two and a half thousand children in detention, amidst universal condemnation, Sessions claimed that the separation of families was never the Administration’s intention. But even with the outcry reaching unprecedented dimensions Trump hung onto his claim that the policy that Sessions had introduced could only be reversed by Congress and not him. He finally caved throwing his Homeland Secretary under the bus, who had stoutly defended, just the day before, his position that Congress alone could change the policy. It was pressure from all directions, but mainly the woesses in his own party that forced this capitulation. For example the Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell informed him that every Senate Republican was against child separation. 

Worse was to follow, the GOP legislators having taken him seriously that this needed a Congressional fix, proceeded to do just that. The problem was that this split the Republican Congress wide open. So Speaker Ryan allowed two bills to hit the floor, a Trumpian effort and a more moderate contribution. Trump was at six’s and seven’s as to what to do about this legislation. Finally, he claimed that he backed both bills. After the Trumpian effort bit the dust the POTUS told the Congressional Republicans to stop wasting their time as whatever they did it couldn’t pass the Senate anyway. He also rejected a plan from Senator Cruz of the Senate that had bipartisan potential. 

The CEO of America didn’t realize that there are a thick wad of Republican Congressmen that needed to distance themselves from him to stand any hope of retaining their seats. But as far as Trump is concerned Republicans who are not for him are against him. So he was onto the next phase of the operation.

THE PARTY OF TRUMP - MY LEADER RIGHT OR WRONG

The POTUS made it quite clear it was his way or the highway. His m. o. is to double down. He would win this thing on his own. He forecast a red wave - the Party of Trump would vanquish all. He had to keep going as all the while the pressure on Manafort and Cohen to turn on him was piling up. He went into serious campaign mode -  Nuremberg style rallies in Minnesota and South Carolina where he barely mentioned his Executive Order and off to Vegas to try and keep the seat Republican, Jay H. Ell means Trumpian. The message was ratcheted up and now the top priority was to rid the country of the scourge of all the illegals. He had a press conference with a half a dozen families who had suffered losses as a result of the undocumented. (Mainly fatalities caused by drunken driving). The fact that the undocumented had lower incidences of legal infractions including homicides, by far was, as always, irrelevant. 

The rhetoric was notched up even higher and higher. He screamed that the solution did not require judges to adjudicate the legitimacy of amnesty. Rather they needed to do away with due process altogether. This was an issue of national pride - “You are not a country if you have no borders”. He screeched to the faithful, “The Democrats want open borders. Our system is a mockery to good immigration policy and law and order. We cannot allow these people to invade our country. We must immediately without Judges or Courts bring them back from where they came”. The fact that all this is against the Constitution was irrelevant, Trump was now America.

Trump is likely to lump this issue with his other moves against immigration. even the granting of work visas to those desperately needed, for example, in Silicon Valley. 

Whatever the merits of this approach for the moment Trump has well over eighty percent approval rate amongst Republicans. He has demonstrated that he is a “strong leader” and the base are not fuzzed that his is leadership all over the show. Trump is not lacking in self confidence and is riding on the fact that the polls have been wrong before and that they are wrong again. He rationalizes: What weakness there is isn’t coming from him but rather from the spineless GOP: If he can motivate his base as he did in 2016 then the Republicans will be triumphant and then the fact that Republicanism was now Trumpism would be etched in stone. 

HOW CAN TRUMP GET IT RIGHT? ANSWER: THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NO IMMIGRATION POLICY

The key question is with what Trump is facing how can he pull off this Hail Mary? Besides the polls, the bye election results, the defection of the Republican Congressmen, who know their districts better than him, and to whom this upping the ante makes their positions even weaker, the crisis, that forced him to backtrack on the children separation policy, is alive and kicking. The fact is that the saga with detention centers are all over the country and with no plan to unify the families means that this damning negative publicity will drag on forever. There will be court challenges, parents who cannot find their offspring, leaked videos, children in handcuffs and leg irons, cages without windows to mention but a few of the potential landmines. So the Democrats can feed of the disastrous ill thought out move of Trump’s. As matters stand this disgraceful tragedy is playing badly everywhere, including the swing districts.

However, Trump bolstered by his base still has a solid immigration policy and the Democrats have none. Whatever division there is in the GOP Trump has grabbed the reins and his policy is the policy. It is significant to note that both Clintons and Obama stuck to the law and had centrist immigrant positions. Obama was even known as Deporter In Chief. The Democratic Party’s split on immigration has not been resolved and who knows how this might play out in the months to come. Without a unified coherent immigration policy the smear that they will not stop the gangs from entering into the country and want an open border policy may stick .The Dems need to move to sort this out. 

As Trump has pointed out the Democrats want to fight this election on immigration but so does he. The difference is that the Democrats don’t really want to fight it out on legislation but rather on the issue of the inhumanity of separating families at the border. Trump believes he has settled that already and it is no longer an issue. Time will tell.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Trump has taken a gamble that could well markedly worsen his and the Republican’s position - but that is the story of his life. He has always lived on the edge and as always he is the only one that matters. 

One fact that you can take to the bank is if the GOP hangs on to its majorities Trump will claim victory. If they don’t he will blame the “ GOP establishment” and the fact that the elections were rigged. 

None of this justifies stooping to the same lack of civility as exhibited by Trump. No one can outpig The Donald - here he is king.  So let his hangers on eat in peace. 

SESSIONS, TRUMP, IMMIGRATION, POPULISM, RABBI SACKS AND THE BIBLE

 As the opposition against the Trump and Session’s policy on detention of all and separating families at the border reached tidal wave proportions the pixie - like Attorney General quoted from the Bible to counter the criticism. Coincidentally with Sesson’s reference to the deity, Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks published his weekly sermon on the Korach rebellion against Moses’s leadership. Rabbi Sacks argued that this was the first recorded instance of populism nearly six thousand years ago. The similarities of the Korach insurrection to the Trump populist revolution are uncanny.

SESSONS, TRUMP AND THE BIBLE

Jeff Sessions the much maligned head of the Justice Department, who has stood his ground both against Trump’s invective for not protecting him against “The Russian Witch Hunt” as well as the barrage against his execution of Trump’s grotesque immigration policies, defended the wholesale lock up of potential immigrants and their children regardless that many have legitimate claims to amnesty. His zealous adherence to the Trump doctrine with the separate detention of over 2400 children, some of them babies, is what has produced almost universal condemnation. The Attorney General while cajoling Immigration officials to round them up and then split them, quoted as his source for this doctrine, Apostle Paul in Romans 13, “Obey the laws of the Government because God has ordained them for his purposes”. It did not pass unnoticed that this was the exact quote that the Confederacy used to defend slavery and to oppose the American revolution. 

The growing chorus of abhorrence, featured all the living First Ladies, Melania Trump, Laura Bush, Michelle Obama, Rosalyn Carter, and Hillary Clinton and a sudden rush of Republican politicians including John Kasich and Mitt Romney. Ms. Bush has remonstrated that this spectacle was reminiscent of the Japanese internment camps which was considered one of the most shameful periods in American history. Trump still stuck to his populist promise to deal with illegal immigration in the harshest possible manner. Children being ripped out of their mothers’ arms is being used as a deterrent to “illegal” immigration. Recordings of children, who were being held in cages, crying ,were being ignored as they were played again and again in the media.  But the POTUS was not backing down. American values were irrelevant. He knew this was red meat to his hungry base. 

There is very little doubt that the question of uncontrolled immigration is a major problem in the world. Several European countries are facing the phenomenon and regardless of the rise of populism no other country is snatching children away from their parents. The Homeland Security Secretary, Kirstjen Nielsen, not surprisingly backed Trump offering that the only way to stop this separation is by Congressional legislation, which will presumably also include some draconian provisions. She reassured that the children are being well cared for. The Secretary denied that the Trump Administration was using children to get Congress to pass money for his wall. Ms. Nielsen has been under pressure to get back into Trump’s good graces and it has been alleged that she will do anything to make him happy.

So as matters stand it is still Session’s interpretation of Roman’s 13 that is the mantra that dictates the Administration’s position.

WHO IS JONATHAN SACKS?

Before continuing, a word as to who in the world is Rabbi Sacks. He is an internationally recognized theologian, author and philosopher who is most well known for his interfaith initiatives. His momentous contribution was recognized in 2016 by winning the Templeton Prize which is regarded as the Nobel Prize for the furtherance of spiritual values. Previous winners include Mother Teresa, the Dali Lama, Reverend Billy Graham and Archbishop Desmond Tutu. He has studiously avoided being involved in party politics and in his position as a member of the British Upper Legislative Chamber, The House of Lords, is as a “cross bencher”, (independent).

He has long been a supporter of the American political system which he believes is covenantal, that is based on trust between the governed and those that govern. He frequently quotes, in his writings the preamble to the Declaration of Independence, that “…all men are created equal and are endowed by their Creator with unalienable rights….”. He states that the American Constitution is the historic first, in modern times, to enshrine the rights of all citizens and recognize that “all men are equal”.

Incidentally, the former Chief Rabbi also, as a cleric, quotes Romans 13. He uses the injunction, “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s” for non involvement in Party Politics and not as an excuse to acquiesce to human rights violations. 

SACK’S SERMON ON KORACH AND HIS POPULIST REBELLION

Each week a different tract from the five books of Moses is read in the synagogue. More often than not Sacks links the portion to modern day events. Last week, as fate would have it, the section read from Numbers was entitled Korach. Korach as Sacks interprets was a populist and “populism has resurged in the West as it did in the1930’s posing a great danger to the future of freedom”

It is important to note that populists arise at times when society is vulnerable, disappointed, resentful, fearful and angry making it possible to rally support to challenge the existing order. To this end the Hebrew nation had just learned that they were to spend forty years in the desert. Korach attacks Moses saying he is no better than any of them and inferring that he is corrupt. Moses defends himself claiming, “I have not taken so much as a donkey from them, nor have I wronged them”. The Jewish prophet makes it clear that he has not sought power, “… the Lord sent me to do all these things and that it was not my own idea.” This in response to Korach’s accusation of Moses misrepresenting God and just carrying out his own policies. The leader is accused of nepotism in that instead of appointing Korach to the priesthood he has appointed his own brother, Aaron.

So Korach, who is “one of the people”, wants to get rid of the self serving leaders and become the true leader and drain the swamp.

Then comes the false narrative - the fake news - and the yearning to get back to a time that never was: Two of the Korach sycophants attack, “Isn’t it enough that you have brought us out of a land flowing with milk and honey to kill us in the wilderness? And now you want to Lord over us”. This is the narrative that Korach populists offer and the rationale for replacing Moses. 

This is Korach’s spiel to make the Hebrew nation great again.

RABBI SACK’S COMPARISON OF KORACH TO TODAY’S POPULIST MOVEMENTS

The distinguished theologian notes the rise of populism, on both the left and the right, as a result of demagogic leaders exploiting the discontent. They attack the establishment, more often than not, using false narratives. The populist leaders are deliberately divisive and confrontational and promise to give back to the people what has been taken from them. He notes that society is willing to sacrifice their freedom for the promised utopia and to tolerate great evils and support whatever scapegoat the leader chooses to blame for the nation’s ills. 

Sacks referred to the European countries where at least thirty - five percent of the population have supported populist leaders. More in hope than sincerity one imagines, he gave America a bye in this sermon. He did however make his feelings known when receiving the American Enterprise, Irvin Kristol, award in 2017 - “The politics of anger emerged in our time is full of danger… the breakdown of American society into narrower and narrower identities nutures a culture of grievances… (while) the social contract is still there, the social covenant is being lost”. The award is given to an individual who has made an exceptional intellectual and practical contribution to improve government policy, social welfare or political understanding. To say the least it is rare for a theologian to receive this prestigious prize. Other winners include Paul Ryan and Republican intellectual and Fox contributor Charles Krauthammer.

The one area that Sacks did not cover in his sermon was the role that the avalanche of refugees has played in the growth of this “dangerous” time.

TRUMP’S POPULISM, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND TRUMP’S  RESPONSE TO HIS WOES

The major plank in Donald Trump’s populist policy was the denigration of immigrants whom he scapegoated as the principle reason for all of America’s imagined ills - economic and social. (Them and the swamp).  America’s incredible economic growth has been as a result of its regular infusions of immigrants, a minority of whom are highly talented and the majority who go into the engine of the country and whose next generation aspire to the middle class. Among these immigrants have always been the illegals. Reagan, the father of Republican conservatism, declared an amnesty and legitimized the status quo in the eighties. The resurgent problem has not been addressed since then. There has been a need for this workforce as it is unlikely that the over eleven million undocumented would remain in America if there was no work for them. It is this group and the fact that the lawlessness and corruption in Latin America is increasing the number of hopeful refugees that are arriving at the border that have been the foci of Trump’s bile.

So ostentatious and nasty implementations of the immigration law have been the one issue the POTUS has left to energize his base. This has to be seen in the context that as the Mueller investigation closes in on him he has elected to fight his potential legal problems politically. He believes that there is no better issue for the faithful than keeping those people out who threaten to change the traditional majority demographic of white America. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

There is no doubt that uncontrolled immigration throughout the world is a major problem. Any hope of stemming the flood would need attention to rectifying the economic inequities, war and crime in the home countries. The current American increase of “illegals” and political refugees are predominantly terrified, desperate and pathetic individuals in destabilized Latin America and are not “murderers, rapists and drug dealers” or “gang members”.

There is also no doubt that the Trump Presidency if not yet at rock bottom is at a new low with their current enforcement of keeping refugees out by immediate detention with the forceful separation of children from their parents, an atrocity that is nothing short of child abuse.

Trump is at the end of his rope as the Mueller probe heightens. His best deal is that Congress passes legislation that corrects the travesty that he has initiated and gives him the wall to chuck to his base. The “zero tolerance” at the border, together with the trade war, the “deal" with Kim Jung Un and the National Football League’s anthem policy are the current diversions. There will be more. 

Only a third of America support this disgrace and this could drop Trump’s approval rating to the low thirty percent and spell disaster for the mid terms.

If one is looking to the Bible for an explanation of this grotesque behavior Jay H. Ell would back Rabbi Sacks over Jeff Sessions any day.

TRUMP’S RATIONALE FOR A NEW WORLD ORDER

Behind Donald Trump’s seemingly inexplicable, all over the map, foreign policy actions creating a new world order and thus reversing the seventy year role of America as the leader of the “free world”, are a number of bizarre rationales. Overriding everything Trump does foreign or local has to be the opportunity to turn the occasion into a media food fest with him the center of attraction - no quiet diplomacy for him. Then most of the foreign policy motivations are extensions of his domestic agenda where he feeds on paranoia and the alleged victimization of America. Another objective for the benefit of his home base is to prove that he is the last white hope for the USA and of course the world.

 First and foremost amongst the foreign incentives is a compulsion to support the country that the former Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney labelled as the greatest threat to world peace, Russia. Then high up on the Commander In Chief’s to do list is reverse anything Obama. Also there is a compulsion for confirmation of his strong guy image which he daily provides “evidence” of by affording high praise for his newest best friends, fellow strong leaders such as, Putin, King Suad, President Erdogan of Turkey and of course Kim Jung Un. The reverse side of that coin is what weaklings the leaders of his former democratic allies are, such as Trudeau, Merkel and Macron. That is why this week the democratic allies were out and Kim Jung Un and Putin are in. War against Canada and peace with North Korea.

In the short space of five hundred days Trump has proceeded to change the accepted order both within America and in the world. The most devastating outcome of Trump’s foreign policy is that it will take decades to restore confidence in America’s word. Trump has created a reality that America’s word is only guaranteed till the next Presidential election.

 THE  G - 7 MEETING 

It was all on display this last weekend at the G 7 conference where the seven richest nations, all ostensibly united against totalitarianism, met. This group is the de facto financial counterpart of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, (NATO).  For seventy years America had provided the lead both in free trade and as a defender and a promotor of human rights and democracy. It is common cause that the American headed (NATO) had held the line in the cold war against the totalitarian USSR. 

At the high powered get together Trump trashed his allies and put in a big plug for Putin’s Soviet Union who he wanted reinstated at this prestigious assembly. Putin had been expelled from that very same forum for his Crimean land grab which action was the very antithesis of what America and its allies ostensibly stood for. Lest there should be any doubt as to Trump’s sentiments he refused to sign the routine communique of the seven world leaders, an unheard of and unprecedented snub. This resulted in public condemnation by America’s closets allies Germany, France and Canada. The latter came in for the fiercest tweet attack. Trade with Canada is nearly as much as with China but most significantly it is the largest importer of American goods. Trump’s trade war with Canada will wreck the latter’s economy.

The meeting fulfilled two tenets of the Trump foreign policy agenda - commitment to, dare Jay H. Ell say, mother Russia, and the mantra that the world’s greatest super power has been taken to the cleaners by the likes of Canada and Mexico as well as of course Europe, Japan and China. Both these assumptions are the hairiest for Trump as the consensus is that he does not have the vaguest idea of the complexities of trade agreements where you win some and lose some. Also he does not realize that at the end of the day all his tariffs will increase the cost of living.

Also the remaining G 6 participants served notice that they can give as much as they get. They apparently are not used to dealing in Manhattan real estate. The only winners of that indaba were Russia and China. 

IRAN, NORTH KOREA AND CUBA

Trump walked out of Obama’s Iran nuclear deal because it only dealt with nuclear weapons and in the process pushed up the price of oil. The rationalization for this rogue act was that it failed to deal with all the other of Iran’s outrageous behaviors. These included it’s support of terrorism, ballistic missiles and human rights violations. The fact that there had been the most rigorous inspections to see that Iran fulfilled its obligations was apparently irrelevant cause who could believe that the Iranian thugs weren’t hiding a centrifuge somewhere. 

Nevertheless he and he alone can effect a deal with North Korea where Kim Jung Un had already outmaneuvered him up the ying yang and where no one has a clue as to where all his nuclear plants are. No other American President would concede the North Korean despot the status of world leader and sit down with him till he had made concessions. The only concession Kim has made was to tell The Donald what he already knew, that he was the greatest. How he can differentiate between the findings of nuclear inspectors in Iran and North Korea only he knows. This especially when nobody knows where all North Korea’s nuclear facilities are. How, if it ever comes to it, how is Trump going to explain why he accepts the nuclear inspections when he rejected that the extensive Iranian scrutiny as fake. Why shouldn’t whatever deal Trump made be nullified by the next US President because he didn’t address, for example, the ballistic missiles or human rights?

Then for no apparent reason other than Obama did it, Trump reversed the rapprochement with Cuba. The political implications of this childish act are not readily apparent although this is one of the few areas that he and Florida’s Republican Senator Marc Rubio are ad idem.

So in North Korea Trump is illustrating that he not only is master of the Art of the Deal he also walks on water. In Iran Trump has “proved” that Obama sold out and in Cuba he has shown that he is not a Commie lover. (So sucks to you Vladmir!).

TOTALITARIAN LEADERS - TRUMP’S NEWEST BEST FRIENDS

By their very nature totalitarian leaders do not easily form alliances. Their tendencies are to dominate. The only reason to form coalitions would be to have company in their nefarious doings and to divide the spoils. Hitler had three principle allies besides countries that he conquered and then went along with him. They were Italy, Japan and the Soviet Union. (The latter was double crossed in 1940 when Hitler invaded Russia). The Axis nations as they were known gave each other support in their dictatorial way of running their countries. Then Germany could have central Europe, Italy the Mediterranean and Japan South East Asia. 

Trump’s partner in chief is Putin, who, inter alia, murders dissidents in foreign countries. He gravitates towards other totalitarian leaders - Erdogan, (killed a 161 opponents when there was an alleged coup),  Xi Jinping, (appointed life long President of China and who was complicit in the Tiananmen Square slaughter), Ibn Suad of Saudi Arabia, (absolute Monarch ruling by Sharia law), and even Kim Jung Un, (public execution of uncle and poisoning half brother with millions starving dissidents in Gulags). He openly admires all of them. 

Putin has a major political objective in separating America from its European allies and wants to make Russia a major power again. His objective is to slowly but surely conquer territories of the former Soviet Union.This is why he actively intervened in the American Presidential election in Trump’s favor. Suad wants to control the Muslim world and shares a hatred of Iran with Trump. The POTUS has no grand imperial schemes, other than Trump Inc. He really just wants to protect his and his families fortunes, placate Russia for reasons not fully known, legitimize other totalitarians thereby legitimizing himself. 

Where the American Commander in Chief differs from his newest best friends is that his position as a dictator has not yet been consolidated so he has to use the international arena to grand stand to play to his base. The message is that America’s fearless leader is up there with the “strong” leaders not the “weak” one like Trudeau. 

TRADE WARS ARE THE WARS THAT DONALD CAN WIN

Another facet of the new administration’s foreign policy is waging trade wars. As America, is the world’s largest importer of goods, buying more from other countries than it sells to them, these are wars America must win. The whole world combined cannot shove on more tariffs than America is able to. The chief items of the foreign policy doctrine fulfilled here include, “The days of taking America for suckers are over” and “I am de man”. It is obvious that no cost benefit analysis has been done on this policy which has not been thought through longer than it takes to compose a Trump tweet. In addition it is totally against the doctrine of free trade that the Republican Party hold so dear. It is also could push the country into a recession, not to mention the world. 

Trade deals are extremely complex and countries, including America, utilize all sorts of stratagems to protect their workers. There are tariffs, quotas and subsidies to mention just a few of the tactics. Mostly these maneuvers  take place in the area of agriculture. Just to take one example Canada cushions its dairy providers with a 270 percent tariff. Trump lambasted Trudeau over the fact. What he failed to mention is that he protects tobacco production here with a close on 400 percent tariff.

FIRE AND FURY

The POTUS frequently reminds “enemies” that America has the world’s greatest nuclear arsenal. Most recently this came up in his on again, off again and on again bromance with “rocket man”. This part of America he does not need to make great again apparently. Ironically he attacked his predecessors as warmongers. He is strangely quiet about the goings on in Syria, especially as his buddy Putin is backing that monster Assad. However, he has threatened Iran with “grave consequences” should they start up their nuclear program now that he has pulled out of the agreement that stopped it. 

TRUMP MESSING UP THE WORLD ORDER TO SOLIDIFY HIS POSITION

While Xenophobia, immigration and the like are the home grown favorites to play to his base he is not as secure in his choices on the international scene. However, other than Russia whom he appears to owe real big, Trump is using his erratic foreign policy to sock it to Barak and show the electorate that the electoral college picked the right guy. 

NORTH KOREA

As for North Korea the most charitable assessment is to wait and see what happens. On it’s face the great big blowhard seems to have given the house away. All trust and very little verification. Jay H. Ell can almost hear the GOP right wing whispering, “Come back Barack all is forgiven”. Japan and South Korea, to put it mildly, are not so happy about the unilateral troop withdrawal. 

At the end of the day if it all goes wrong Trump cannot rely on his former allies to bail him out. The missiles are not aimed at Europe they are aimed at America. All he will have left is China who he is also treated like you know what. No wonder he went bankrupt four times. 

WHY MUELLER MUST SUBPOENA TRUMP

 Trump and his legal team's ongoing barrage raises the question as to whether the President is about to terminate the Russian investigation. This attack is occurring concurrently with debate on the impasse as to whether or not the POTUS will be “interviewed” by Mueller’s team. All indications point to Trump going to the ends of the earth to avoid an encounter. Time is running out for Mueller and he needs to act promptly in issuing a subpoena. 

Between Trump, Giuliani, Sekolow and Bannon a strong argument is being made that Trump has dictatorial powers and is answerable to no one but himself. The war between Trump’s Whitehouse and Mueller’s Special Counsel investigation is hotting up every day. Trump appears to be more and more desperate. He has the bully pulpit and screams “Witch Hunt”, “Hoax” while his TV lawyer, Rudi Giuliani, questions the legitimacy of the enquiry claiming it is based on a collection of illegalities and conspiracies to dethrone the POTUS. 

TRUMP ABSOLUTE KING 

Currently Giuliani is acting as if he is in total control making unrealistic demands as preconditions to an interview. The POTUS’S TV lawyer talks as if it is only in his power whether the discussion takes place or not. In addition, he maintains that Mueller has no power to either subpoena or indict the Commander in Chief.  Trump’s legal team, as part of its aggressive in your face approach, have claimed that he cannot obstruct justice as he is the chief law officer. He cannot be indicted even if shot Comey. The POTUS and Giuliani add that his pardon powers extend to his goodself. The fact that the Trump and his legal team can argue this dangerous treasonous drivel is indicative of how far Trumpism has veered from the rule of law.

MUELLER CLAIMS HE COULD SUBPOENA

The Special Counsel has stated that he could subpoena Trump. The fact that he hasn’t to date is reflective of his conservatism and a desire to be perceived to be totally out of the political arena. But like it or not that is exactly where the Trump/Giuliani duo have placed him, thereby putting him at a distinct disadvantage. So far the career public servant has allowed his legal moves to do the talking but the President has skillfully deflected these away from himself. Issuing a subpoena is a legal move which could have profound political implications, placing Trump on the defensive. 

In spite of all this activity public opinion has remained almost static with supporters of Trump not budging an inch. The Trump base is the gallery Giuliani admits that they are playing to in order to prevent impeachment.

VOTER INVOLVEMENT IN WATERGATE AND NIXON’S DOWNFALL

There is little doubt that regardless of the legal merits of the case against the POTUS his guilt or non guilt needs to be clear cut in the eyes of the body politic. Compared to Watergate the body politic is in the dark and are turning to the media that supports their opinions. Trump’s approval rating has remained around forty percent as a result - where it has been for well over a year. That means a sizable portion of society are unmoved by what has transpired. 

Nixon had won an overwhelming electoral victory in November 1972 less than two years prior to his downfall. He had raked up five hundred and twenty electoral votes to McGovern’s seventeen. In the popular vote he had thrashed the Democratic challenger by twenty - three percent. At the time Watergate was already an issue yet Nixon’s approval rating was rock solid at sixty percent. So in order to impeach Trump the body politic has to be persuaded as it was with Nixon.

The reason that society was prepared for the axing of Nixon was the whole drama was played out, daily, in front of their eyes on television. The Democrats were in control and they held open Congressional hearings, firstly in the Senate and then in the House. In both instances the proceedings were obsessionally bipartisan. All heard Nixon’s Counsel John Dean whistleblow and Alexander Butterfield relay to the Committee that Nixon secretly tape recorded his conversations. It was the Senate Minority Republican leader, Howard Baker, who famously capsulated the issue facing the investigators, “What did President Nixon know and when did he know it?”. When the issue came to the House Judiciary Committee the latter voted in a bipartisan decision to recommend impeachment. Leon Jaworski the Special Prosecutor had a far easier task as society was being educated while he proceeded with his work. Finally, when Nixon’s guilt was established by the release of his own tapes his approval rating dropped to twenty - four percent. He was told by the Republican leadership that if he didn’t resign the Senate would uphold his impeachment and he would be terminated.

As the President looks increasingly like he could take his chances and terminate the Investigation and that would be that. His other option is to so trash it that his forty percent remains immovable. So there in an urgency for Mueller to weigh up the pros and cons of issuing a subpoena before this occurs. If Mueller subpoenas the President he will have an opportunity in the Court battles, in a impartial platform, to educate society as to the issues.

POLITICAL ADVANTAGES OF A SUBPOENA

The immediate impact of a subpoena will be to cut dead in its tracks any attempt to terminate the Investigation. This will allow the FBI’s Special Counsel to proceed with his task.

The Special Counsel has more than justifiable reasons to go ahead with a subpoena. Both sides of the political spectrum have been hammered with the fact that the legal teams cannot agree on terms for an “interview”. Mueller’s rationale that he needs to obtain Trump’s side of the story has a very persuasive political ring to it for those who believe it is a "hoax" as well as the majority who are convinced there is wrongdoing.

While the WhiteHouse team can rant and rave that this a “witch hunt” it is not an argument they can use in court. They have to argue the legal basis as to why the Commander in Chief cannot answer questions in a counter - intelligence investigation where he is a subject. There have already been comprehensive indictments to support the fact that the Russians intervened. Then four of his former campaign team including its manager and deputy manger, his National Security advisor and a political advisor have all been indicted, and three are cooperating with Mueller’s office in the investigation. In addition his personal lawyer, who brokered several contacts with the Russians during the election, is one step away from criminal charges. A close confidante of Trump’s, Elliot Broide, is under investigation in the probe. Broide's partner, George Nader, who too was involved with meetings with the Russians, has been given immunity in return for his cooperation.  

Then there is the powerful prima facie case against the President for Obstruction of Justice for which Mueller does not need tapes. Besides all the evidence he has gleaned he has Trump’s tweets and a video archive where he makes it quite clear why he fired Comey and continues to attack Rosenstein, Sessons and Mueller. He has now admitted that collusion did indeed take place in his son’s meeting with Russian operatives. He has also confessed to obstructing justice in relation to the purpose of that meeting.

All this establishes that the request for a subpoena is not “frivolous” or a “witch hunt”. Any court, regardless of the political persuasion of the Judges, will take serious note of these factors. So a motion to dismiss on the basis that the investigation has no merit and is merely political will not get to first base. Society will hear these arguments several times over and note that courts do not dismiss this legal reality as a “hoax”. 

Ultimately it will be the Supreme Court that will decide on the Constitutionality of subpoenaing a sitting President. Even if the Supreme Court ultimately rules that Trump cannot be subpoenaed they will do so on narrow constitutional grounds not on the merits of the case. So Trump will be faced with the fact that he went to all these lengths to avoid being questioned. The irresistible conclusion is that he has something to hide. This will make an indelible impression on the body politic.

THE LEGALITY OF A PRESIDENTIAL SUBPOENA  AND OR INDICTMENT

  There is a debate as to whether the President can be subpoenaed. The issue gets unnecessarily complicated when the argument is coupled as to whether he can be indicted a well. The two concepts should be separated. With regard to an indictment there is understandable some legal confusion as the Constitution makes provision for impeachment for Presidential “high crimes and misdemeanors”. A reasonable interpretation of this article is that a Presidential illegal act should not be tried in Court but rather by the impeachment process. Jay H. Ell believes this does not eliminate the possibility of an indictment. If for example Trump actually shot someone on Fifth Avenue as said he might during the campaign or Comey as Giuliani suggested it might be more appropriate to try him in a court of law.  But the issue here is not indictment. Rather it is what power the courts might have to insist that a President be enjoined to provide evidence in a criminal investigation. Here there is established law.

 United States versus Nixon in 1974 resulted in an unanimous landmark Supreme Court ruling. Nixon had challenged a subpoena which demanded that he provide the State with tape recordings and other materials. This subpoena was for materials rather than for personal evidence but the principle is the same. In Nixon like in Trump’s situations the investigations were of a criminal nature. 

President Clinton versus Jones in 1997 was yet another unanimous landmark Supreme Court ruling creating law relating to a siting President responding to a subpoena. The action was civil rather than criminal. The action adjudicated on was initiated before Clinton was in office. Clinton was enjoined to sit for a deposition.

So between the Nixon and the Clinton precedents any reasonable extrapolation would be that a sitting President is subject to a subpoena demanding that he appear before a Grand Jury in a criminal investigation in which he is a subject of. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Commentators are arguing that Mueller is risking giving Trump a victory if he loses in court. Mueller has no choice. If he doesn’t take the initiative, the way this scandal is going, he won’t be around to finish the investigation. He, more than anyone else, realizes that the future of democracy in America is dependent on definitively resolving whether there is an ever expanding criminal enterprise that in the American Presidency. 

Mueller should act now if that is his intention. The criticism he will face is that the President is involved in crucial negotiations with North Korea. The President’s appearance before the grand jury should be after the June 12, initial negotiations.

One fact is certain. The whole saga is accelerating with new revelations daily. An obstruction of justice charge seems a slam dunk and who knows how many abuses of power infractions Mueller has evidence of. There is even an argument that the epidemic of seemingly bizarre Presidential pardons have an obvious corrupt intent to obstruct justice. Commentators are interpreting them as a signal to Manafort, Cohen and company to hang in there as pardons will follow. (The historical precedent cannot be reassuring in that Nixon didn’t follow through as promised to Ehrlichman, Haldemann et al.) The public case for collusion is growing by the day.

The fate of countries and even the world have been, since time immemorial, in the hands of a few individuals. It is not being too melodramatic to say America’s immediate destiny is at stake. On the one hand there is an all powerful narcissistic, authoritarian, corrupt President, who has no vision and whose unpredictable actions are undoing every value this country has strived for. On the other there is the media, the protestors and the like. But in the final analysis the antidote to this threat to democracy must be the unbiased, fact based institutions that have served to sustain it. To that end its success is dependent on a few individuals whose modus operandi is the very opposite of the demagogic charismatic salesman showman who is the President. Public servants such as Rod Rosenstein and Robert Mueller in addition to their roles in upholding truth and justice have been thrust into the political limelight, forcing them to take stances and actions that would not normally be in their armamentarium.  

The time has come for Mueller to move against his conservative instincts. He knows better than everyone else that he has to give the President the opportunity to respond to his findings. He also is aware that the President has no intention of pitching up for an interview. The transparent plan is that Giuliani would blame him for the failure to agree to “reasonable” terms for a meeting which Mueller has been negotiating for, for over six months. 

 The Special Counsel has shown the Office of the Presidency the appropriate respect. The time has come to illustrate what all courts have decided - the President is not above the law. In so doing the action will have profound political impact.  By subpoenaing Trump he will be put on the defensive. But from a political point of view Mueller will be affording the POTUS every opportunity to expose the witch hunt and explode the hoax, which he repeatedly claims is his wish. This while moving the narrative out of the circus tents, twitter accounts and Nuremberg style rallies into cold fact finding arenas.

So go for it Counselor Mueller. You might be surprised at the lack of opposition from the Republicans.

Finally, should President Trump be subpoenaed he will  plead the Fifth Amendmentt.