THE TWO WORLDS OF TRUMP AND MUELLER

The future of the American value system and therefore its soul largely rests in the outcome of the confrontation between Special Counsel Robert Mueller and President Donald Trump. Their personalities and modus operandi match their respective visions as they both operate in their differing planetary orbits. The Commander in Chief is determined to stamp the cult of personality and authoritarianism on the American way of life while the Special Counsel slowly trudges on the well worn path of the rule of law. Their personalities reflect their missions - the politician determined to be in the public eye dominating the narrative through the media space while the officer of the law proceeds unseen and unheard. Ostensibly The Commander in Chief has the upper hand as he can effect the firing of the public servant. The latter has the intent of the Constitution and the institutions it has spurned to provide him cover in his toils. 

Fittingly, the subject matter of this battle is the central underpinning of a democracy - its electoral system. Mueller is investigating the illegal influence of a foreign adversarial power, Russia, which allegedly sort to support Trump over his opponent Hillary Clinton. His mandate extends further as he has to ascertain whether or not the Russians were assisted in their endeavor by Trump and or his campaign. Then of course if any other criminality is discovered including obstruction of justice or fraud the Special Counsel has a mandate to investigate and prosecute those. 

It has to be noted that ultimately this battle will be decided in the political arena as the President has protections that the average citizen has not. The accepted redress for Presidential “criminality” is impeachment by Congress, the grounds of which are defined as being treason, bribery or other high crimes or misdemeanors. It is for this reason that it is in the political arena that Trump has elected to fight. 

With this in mind the upcoming midterm elections will be crucial for the survival of the current POTUS. He has made it quite clear that he is going to be heavily involved ensuring that the election will be a referendum on his Presidency.

THE CONTENDERS 

Both contenders are masters of the fields in which they are waging conflict. The Donald is a charismatic demagogue and a genius salesman whose product for sale is himself. He is a gladiator who intuitively assesses the needs of his following and then promises them what they want. Mueller is the recluse who shuns publicity of any sort whose light is shone by others who vouch for his professionalism, thoroughness, impartiality and unequaled ability to unearth the truth. In this struggle their can only be one victor and ultimately it will be society through its electorate, their representatives and their institutions that will decide.

THE TACTICS  OF TRUMP AND ITS SUCCESS THUS FAR

For practical purposes Donald Trump has elected to fight, with no holds barred, in the political arena. It is fair to say that he has maintained his core support. Their enthusiasm has not flagged as they do not tire attending his ongoing mass rallies where he repeats and repeats his mantra which he has honed down to sound bites. He articulates that it is the “crooked, rigged system” that is out to get him as he is not part of the establishment. Specifically, he spits out, Mueller’s enquiry is a “witch hunt” and the whole issue is a “hoax” cooked up by the Democrats as they lost an election they should have won. The institution of the FBI is corrupt and biased towards the Democrats, he adds. They are part of “The Dark State” that seeks to undermine American democracy and their legally elected President, he summates.  

There is also a claim that the FBI had an uncover agent in the Trump campaign in the early days to follow the lead that the Russians were intervening, which has become the major talking point in his onslaught against the Mueller investigation.“There is no collusion”, (with the Russians) nor is their any obstruction of justice, he repeats and repeats ad nauseam.

In effecting his strategy, which in sync with his Presidential style, Trump demands absolute loyalty. His argument as verbalized by his long standing aide KellyAnne Conway is that his world consists of “alternative facts”. While his ability to lie with monotonous regularity was established on the campaign trail any hope that that may change with his ascendency to the Presidency was dashed on day one. He sent out his WhiteHouse Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, to defy a reality witnessed by the whole world by claiming that the audience at his inauguration was the largest ever. Nothing has changed since. The faithful accept this state of affairs.

The relevant question is how Is Trump faring in his fight for survival? The key parameter that he has to cheer him up is that his approval rating has remained steady, round about forty percent. Although this is between eight and ten percent below his electoral figures these people represent the base of the Republican Party. This points to another success, namely that for practical purposes his hijacking of the Republican Party is official. This puts the current GOP congressional representatives in a dilemma as to have any chance of electoral success they need his support in the midterm elections. Credit for this takeover is Trump’s. His non stop barrage of tweets are swallowed up as gospel by his followers and give direction to his base on a daily basis.

On the institutional side he has one major ally in the Intelligence Committee of House of Representatives that is batting for him big time. The Republican component of that body  has concluded that there was no Russian involvement in the 2016 Presidential election. Lead by Congressman Nunes they have focussed on investigating the investigators and the Mueller investigation itself. 

On the media side he has his Fox News that unconditionally supports him. The latter have an ardent following and their blind acceptance allows Trump to have an important continuing exposure to the body politic. Recently he has been joined on that stage by former Mayor Giuliani whose style meshes with his. It is not unimportant to have a major TV Network ready, willing and able to broadcast and back everything you say or do regardless of reality.

MUELLER’S OPERATION AND SUCCESS THUS FAR.

Mueller has no presence in the market place and his progress is noted by his legal maneuvers. His operation is water tight and there have been no leaks. The special counsel has the advantage of being able to employ the best legal brains and he has the investigatory back up of the FBI with subpoena powers over all and sundry including the President. Thus far he has had singular successes far exceeding, in the first year, any similar investigation. He has charged Trump’s campaign manager Paul Manafort, Manafort’s deputy Richard Gates, Manafort’s son in law, Jeffery Yohai, Trump’s National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn and a foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulus. Most significantly the latter four are all cooperating with the Special Counsel in his investigation. There have been two other guilty pleas, one by an attorney, Alex Van Der Swaan, and another by a Richard Pinedo who have links to the investigation. 

Significantly Mueller has also indicted thirteen Russian nationals and three Russian companies for interference in the election. Finally, Mueller’s referral for prosecution of Trump’s lawyer and ‘“fixer”, Michael Cohen, who had known involvement with Russia on Trump’s behalf, has shaken the Trump WhiteHouse to its foundations.

What is most impressive is the institutional support that Mueller has. The bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee has completed its investigation and concluded that the Russians did indeed interfere in the 2016 Presidential Elections in favor of President Trump. The Senate group also released a treasure trove of transcripts which provided Mueller with sources to check and cross check information and evidence. The Senate Committee affirmed its support for the Intelligence, Security and Law Enforcement Agencies all of whom reached the same conclusion. In addition both chambers of Congress have made it clear that the Mueller Investigation must be allowed to continue. In the Senate there is a bipartisan motion that mandates that Mueller remains in place. For the moment the Republican Senate Majority Leader won’t allow it to come to the floor, “Because it is not necessary”. The polls show overwhelming support for the investigation to continue.

In the public forum, on the other TV channels, the evidence of Trump’s campaign involvement in the election increases daily. The teams of reporters of particularly from The Washington Post, The New York Times who have been backed up, for example by, The New Yorker, Vanity Fair, Buzzfeed  and The Wall Street Journal have made a devastating impact on furthering the case of collusion with Russia as well as obstruction of justice by Trump. Added to all this are two block buster books by authors Michael Wolf and fired former FBI Director Comey that provide further fuel to the fire.

 Recently litigation instituted by a porn star, Stormy Daniels, uncovered his personal lawyer Cohen’s nefarious activities which have the potential to involve Trump. This litigation has already caused him to concede that he financed Daniel’s pay off, a fact that he had previously denied. To add insult to injury his ultimate acknowledgement of this has lead to a referral by the Government Ethics Committee to the Department of Justice for criminality for failing to report this transaction earlier. There is defamation litigation by a women accuser that a judge has allowed to proceed that could represent a second hazard for a deposition to be allowed from the POTUS. To add to the mix is emuloment litigation, which alleges that he has used his office for personal profit, is proceeding slowly. 

THE POLITICAL ARENA

However ultimately it is in the political arena that the results of Mueller’s indictments and guilty pleas and what has been revealed in the media about them face the greatest test. What has transpired thus far in bye elections has not been helpful to Trump. There has been an average of a seventeen percent swing from Trump’s numbers to the Democrats in Congressional Elections since the Presidential election. In 2017 there were seventy electoral contests for State and Federal vacancies. According to the influential pollsters, Fivethirtyeight, the Democrats have performed at least twelve percent better than expected. This outcome shows that anywhere and everywhere there is a swing away from Trump. If these results hold together with the approval rate of the President remaining below fifty percent this will result in a big swing to the opposition party. That could result in the Democrats, at least, regaining the House of Representatives.

THE UPSHOT.

The Trump camp with the assistance of Giuliani will not easily relent in their mission to derail or deligitimize the Mueller investigation. They are not to be underestimated. However how they hope to wish this all away is uncertain. There are indictments and campaign manager Manafort goes on trial in July with the prospect of a Cohen arraignment in the near future, Then there is no way they will shut the media up. At best Trump can hang onto his forty percent support and that is not enough to avoid a Democratic take over in the House and they can at the very least reopen the Congressional investigations.  

If Mueller, as all the portents indicate, produces a referral for Trump’s impeachment a Democratic House can proceed. They should not do so unless there is a bipartisan consensus. The Dems don’t want to repeat the same cynical partisan move that the Republicans were responsible for with the Clinton impeachment. It must be remembered that Nixon’s approval rating was around about forty percent till a conclusive case was brought against him and his numbers then dropped to twenty four percent. This ensured that the effort for his removal was bipartisan. The other crucial point to note is that the Nixon impeachment and his subsequent resignation took four years of investigations. So for those who are impatient for a conclusion they need to stick around. Trump and his new megaphone Giuliani are also calling for Mueller to wrap it up.

It is appropriate that a President that has been constitutionally elected is only removed from office after an exhaustive transparent process proves otherwise. 

Whatever the outcome in this counter intelligence investigation, Mueller will not deviate from his modus operandi of functioning within the rule of law while Trump will approach this matter, as he confronts everything else, by politicizing it as a personal assault and framing himself as a victim of the Dark State.