There is a old race track adage that the punter must scream at the jockey, as his horse leads by a mile, “Don’t fall off!”. This dictum applies to the Democrats who run the risk of becoming over confident of their chances in the 2018 midterms Congressional elections. Since The Donald has taken the reins the Republicans have lost forty State legislature seats and there has been, on average a seventeen percent swing from the Trump majorities in the national Congressional bye elections. Another challenge for the Dems is to look and act like an alternative government that can stay in power for elections to come, rather than just be anti Trump with impeachment as the objective.
The latest result in a traditional Republican stronghold in Arizona, where none of the demographics favored a Democrat swing, the Republicans held onto their Congressional seat by five percentage points. That was a race that the Democrats rarely even put up a candidate and was won by Romney in 2012 by twenty - five points and Trump by over twenty percent in November 2016. The Cook Political Report, the non partisan legislative ratings think tank stated that currently there are a hundred and seventy four districts that are “less Republican” than the Arizona 8th Congressional District. Bearing in mind that the Republicans only have two hundred and forty - five Congressional House seats this had to be a wake up call.
But the GOP establishment heard the message long ago. Scott Walker, GOP Governor of Wisconsin, had already warned that a “blue wave" was on the way and the normally fossilized Republican leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, cautioned that a “blue tsunami” was on the horizon. The GOP Legislators are voting with their feet. A record number of forty - three Congressmen are deserting the ship and are not standing for reelection. They are lead by rat number one, the philosophical guru and de facto leader of the Party, Paul Ryan. The latter too is their most effective fund raiser. Needless to say reports indicate that they have tried to inform the Godfather el Trumpo of the danger but he believes he can pull it off in spite of “them” and is confidently predicting Republic electoral success. He does walk on water you know.
PARTY TACTICS THUS FAR IN THE BYE ELECTIONS
Kudos to the Democratic Party, (DP), thus far, they have resisted the temptation to turn the nine national contests into referenda on Trump and the Republican Party. They have relied on the fact that the perception of the electorate is that Trump and the Republicans are not doing nearly as well they claim they are. They have wisely concentrated on local politics in each instance, pushing Democratic Party policies while the National Democratic Party, wisely, has not been in evidence.
The National GOP however with their Capo di Tutti Capi have gone in boots and all believing that their appeals are irresistible. Trump still persists in mixing in even in Arizona where he recorded robo calls. A central thrust of the GOP message is an attack on the DP Minority House Nancy Pelosi not realizing that this Washington Republican nemesis has very little name recognition in the sticks. They have pushed their one legislative success which gives massive tax cuts to the rich and a token to the poor and middle class in the hope that the small increase in the pay check will blind the electorate to the massive disparity in the hand outs.
To sum it up the Dems have left Trump out of it while the GOP have had no choice as their fearless leader has, as always, made it all about him. In the Congressional midterm election in Pennsylvania eighteenth district the Commander in Chief, at one of his modern day Nuremberg rallies in support of the GOP exhorted the glassy eyed faithful to vote to retain the seat for the Republicans so as not to embarrass him. His pleas fell on deaf ears as the swing to the Democrats was twenty - two percent and the Democrats captured the seat.
Trump will be front and central in the mid terms and the question is how should the Democrat Party, (DP), play it.
TRUMP, THE GOP, THE DEMS AND THE MID TERMS
There has to be an irresistible temptation for the DP to smear Trump and call for impeachment. The country is not ready for it. To impeach there has to be a popular buy in. Trump still has a forty percent approval rate with over eighty percent of the Republicans still supporting him. Nixon could be axed because his approval rating went down to twenty - four percent. Bill Clinton’s approval rating was well over fifty percent and increased by nearly ten percent in the impeachment process. At this stage the issue is still madly political not factual. In any case impeachment isn’t policy and it is time consuming and leaves no oxygen in the air for anything else. The line has to be let us wait till all the facts are out in the Mueller investigation. Allow Trump to shout “no collusion” while attempting to frighten his electorate into voting Republican “as otherwise they are going to impeach me”.
Trump will have another negative effect on the GOP chances. He has the majority support in the Party at the moment. The upshot of that is that his candidates should win the Primaries. The overwhelming evidence thus far is that this results in a seventeen percent electorate swing away from the Republicans. They need moderate candidates who need to appeal to the ten to twenty percent of suburban Republicans qnd independants that have abandoned Trump.
The GOP are having great difficulty to find issues to run on. The much vaunted tax cut that was going to result in industry expansion, more high paying jobs, bonuses for the employees and a ton of money more in paychecks has been a damp squib. No lesser Republican than Senator Marco Rubio has stated that after the tax cuts the corporations bought back shares and generally gave more money to their shareholders who are up there with the high earners. Rubio concluded that, “There is no evidence whatsoever that the money’s been massively poured back into the American worker”.
The coal mines have not reopened nor have there been any meaningful increases in manufacturing. The bonus that companies also reaped by bringing back their foreign profits at a very low tax rate have not improved the lot of the worker either. Rather they have, in the main, provided further windfalls for the shareholders. So the Republican candidates are beginning to run on Trump’s mantra - “If you elect Democrats they are going to impeach me”. The Republican Indiana Primary tells it all as the three contenders try and out Trump Trump. The phrases like “crooked Hillary, “special counsel witch hunt”, “Make America Great Again” and “fake news” are common currency. The Republicans are banking on the fact that the economic promises are irrelevant because the cultural message is paramount.
WHAT’S GOING FOR THE DEMOCRATS.
Evidence provided by the fifty or so elections thus far show that there is serious trouble ahead for the GOP if the seventeen percent trend against the GOP continues. There is no reason to believe that it won’t.
Trump’s problems really started on Day One of his Presidency when he went on the offensive on the crowd size. Also he made it quite clear in his Inauguration speech that he just was interested in the minority of voters that elected him. It is thus fair to say he could not have won over many Hillary voters. Within a week the country saw the largest demonstrations in history with millions in the streets of Washington and in every other city in America. The Women’s March triggered off activism and involvement that would be reflected in every political arena. Besides local and state elections a record number of women are running for Governorships and Congress. There are at least five hundred and seventy - five in 2018 as opposed to three hundred and twelve in 2016. The biggest surge by far has been in the Democratic Party.
The school children nationwide protest for gun control, “March For Our Lives”, has taken a political turn. Part of their mantra has been to vote those politicians out who are not prepared to take any action. There are no prizes for which party still is championing the NRA mantra that it is people not AK 47’s that kill school children and it takes a good guy with an AK 47 to get a bad guy with an AK 47. The scholars enthusiasm has not waned. They have also enacted voter registration and in the future they will be even a greater threat to the GOP. Needless to say they also have parents….
Another “apolitical” group that have been involved in protests nation wide are the teachers. They are protesting low pay and the massive reductions on education expenditure. Like the scholars their gripe has its genesis in GOP policy in States where taxes have been slashed and therefore services as well. There is a growing list of States where this activism is taking place - Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky and Arizona to name but a few. In Arizona there has been a specific demand by the teachers to reintroduce the State tax system. Needless to say the GOP policy centerpiece, lower taxes especially for the rich will not resonate with this highly influential group.
The spokespersons for traditional Republicans is growing larger in number and more vocal. Republican Governor of Ohio and Presidential candidate, John Kasich, has just this week argued that “The Republican Party left him. He didn’t leave the Republican Party”. The circulating anecdotes that the suburban Republicans will now either not vote or vote Democrat in 2018 may well turn into reality.
Quietly but effectively President Obama and his former Attorney General Eric Holder have been fighting voter suppression and district gerrymandering that was a big help in getting Trump elected. Their major legal successes have been in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, States that put Trump over the top with Electoral College votes. In the former there are eleven Republican and six Democratic Congressmen where the registered Democrats outnumber the Republicans by a million. In Wisconsin the party affiliation is said to be equal but there are five Republican Congressmen to the Democrats three.
All this change has been reflected in the polling. In the mid terms, in the best of times, a low approval rate of the new President results in electoral losses. Trump’s nearly forty percent approval rate may win him Primaries in the Republican Party but those are not the best candidates to win Congressional elections in the current climate. Generic Polls do not reflect the high swing rate that have been evidenced in the fifty so elections to date. This could be because those who still identify themselves as Republicans are just not voting. The observation by the prestigious Cook Political Report that potentially the GOP could loose a one hundred and seventy - four of their current Congressional membership of two hundred and forty - five is probably a bit fanciful. More conservative estimates are that the GOP are on track to loose the House with a thirty to sixty district swing.
WHAT THE DEMOCRATS MUST DO
So for the jockey not to fall off the horse between now and November the DP need to hone the pitch and stay focussed on message. The priorities need to be to extend Obamacare possibly via opening Medicare enrollment and reintroducing higher taxes for the riches. Also putting a halt to obscene behavior such as Ben Carson’s crippling tripling of the rent of subsidized Housing for the poor - all in the teeth of doling out all that money to the rich. Attacks on the lack luster economic performance for the majority and the failure to deliver higher wages are sure to resonate. Also the DP message cannot be radical for the practical reason that those policies just cannot be carried through. For example, Universal Health Care needs one more interim step. The objective is not only to win power but to stay in power for electoral cycles to come.
Finally, leave Trump to Trump, and his acolytes. They can be the ones turning this into a referendum on the Commander in Chief. They can argue that the issue is not the substance of Mueller’s questions but rather the fact that they were leaked….. and remember Trump has defied the omens more than once so nothing can be taken for granted.
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