THE INCORRIGIBLE TRUMP’S LAST STAND

Donald J. Trump faces his greatest challenge in his seventy year life. He has taken on the whole judicial infrastructure of the Republic of the United States. He has ridden roughshod over the basis of the American Constitution by ignoring the principle of separation of powers. 

The reason for Trump's worsening outlandish behavior is that the Special Counsel’s Investigation is slowly and steadily peeling away layers to become closer and closer to him and his family. The Republican Party is disintegrating before his eyes and there is a strong possibility that the Democrats will take over the House invoking the possibility of impeachment. Then the former leaders of the staid Intelligence Establishment, have publicly denounced him and confirmed that the Russians backed him. The former Director of National Intelligence went as far as to claim that without the Russians Trump would not be President of the United States. 

Nobody but nobody can deny Donald Trump’s survival instincts. He is fighting for his life as the walls close in on him. He has long ago reckoned that he cannot win this battle legally and has been fighting it in the political arena. The latter tactic has not stopped Special Counsel Mueller from piling on the pressure. Trump and his new “T V lawyer”, Rudy Giuliani are verging on the unthinkable - instruct the Justice Department to stop the investigation. Giuliani has unashamedly stated that his motivation of delegitimizing the Mueller enquiry is to avoid impeachment. A line in the sand has already been crossed with the Justice Department being pressured to reveal classified information in the midst of a counter intelligence investigation. 

THE TRUMP RESUME AND THE GENESIS OF HIS CRISIS

It hasn’t ever been plain sailing for The Don with the result that he has become unstuck again and again. To his credit, (?), he has always found a way to endure. In the beginning his father’s money was his protecsia. Then the fact that he was worth far more to creditors not to bankrupt him allowed him to keep afloat once more. Then there was the sensational TV reality show where he did what he did best - fire people. At that skill he was a rock star while at the same time leading everyone to believe that everything he touched turned to gold. The franchising that followed saw him resurface big time. 

Most recently, with the emergence of the Russian oligarchy, as his son has pointed out, most of his real estate business has been conducted with Russia. These ostensibly have been the good years for the huckster, who by his own admission “loves debt”, (and not paying debts either), as he has been able to buy four hundred million dollars worth of property with cash. Where this all comes nobody knows and if he has his way they will never know as his income tax returns are under continuous life long audit. 

For whatever reason he decided to stand for the Presidency and winner that he is, he won against all odds. The problem that has arisen is that the Intelligence and Security Establishment found that he had unseen illegal partners in that endeavor - “The Russia Thing”. Used to blowing away all opposition he fired the FBI Director, Comey, who was in charge of the “Russia Thing” enquiry. As he told the Russian Ambassador that by firing that “Nut job, Comey, it had relieved great pressure”. He was after all the boss and the FBI Director was a “lying, (everyone knows he is a liar, you know that and I know that), blowhard”. To his chagrin another flunky, Rod Rosenstein, who was supposed to be working for him, appointed a Special Counsel to continue the investigation. Rosenstein added insult to injury including in the mandate an injunction to examine whether the POTUS had obstructed justice in his dismissal of Comey. Justice Secretary Sessons, who he had appointed to oversea all of this and to look after him just like Eric Holder had covered Obama’s back, recused himself. As he has told anyone who would listen - he would never have appointed Sessons had he been informed of that recusal upfront. 

He was on his own like he always had been and he could take anyone on. He would win. 

THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY

From the get go they called him out on everything he said. He was not used to this. They argued with him that he hadn’t achieved the greatest victory ever for a Republican President. They contested the fact that at his inauguration there had been the largest crowd ever. There were sniggers when he claimed that no other President had achieved as much he had in his first year. But what really bugged him was that the investigation into that “Russia Thing  was growing out of hand. It had been one “thing” after another. 

He believed he has been playing it according to his well known playbook by attacking the Investigation and the investigators. It was a “Witch hunt”, a “hoax”.  “There was no collusion or obstruction”. "It was part of the Dark State to unseat him". "It was cooked up by the Democrats as they had lost an election they should have won”. He clutched at every straw and prefabricated up the ying yang - Obama had wire tapped his campaign to most recently the FBI had spied on his campaign - “Spygate”. He claimed that “Spygate” would turn out to be the biggest political scandal since “Watergate”.

What really angered him most was that he didn’t get the full support of the Republican Congress. The fact that the Democrats claimed that they were letting him get away with murder was no consolation. He expected blind loyalty and obedience. He was after all their leader. From his paranoid world he would argue that the GOP legislators were there when they needed him to pass the tax bill but when it came to backing him up on the axing the Investigation they were unsupportive. As of this moment Speaker Ryan has no control of the House having lost a crucial Farm Bill with 30 Republicans defecting. 

Even worse the majority of Reoublican lamely whimp that the Investigation must proceed. A few of them even threatened that if he interfered it could be the end of his Presidency. In private they warned him outright that if he axed Mueller they could not defend him. There was however a small group of Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee who were patriots. They concluded that there was no evidence that the Russians interfered in the election while everyone was arguing that the Trump campaign had colluded with them. They were investigating the investigators and he would help them where he could.

THE INVESTIGATION PRESSURE GROWS AND GROWS

Every other day there had been a new revelation about Russia, Wikileaks, meetings, links between Russian oligarchs and the like. Suspicious meetings that Donald Junior and Cohen had attended with foreign agents were almost a daily fair.  What was most off putting was the arrests, indictments and the announcements of  former campaign members that they were cooperating with Mueller. His former Assistant Campaign Manager, his National Security Advisor, and a Foreign Affairs Advisor were all cooperating with the Special Counsel. The only holdout had been his former Campaign Manager who they threw new charges at every other day. Manafort’s son in law was now also aiding Mueller following a plea deal. (Trump has not commented on the story that his former lawyer Mr. Dowd spoke to the lawyers of Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort in connection with pardoning them.)

 El Presidente was catatonic at the raid on his former fixer and lawyer Michael Cohen. The Commander in Chief pleaded with the Judge to allow his counsel to view the tons of documents and electronic material that was seized from his Consiglieri. Everyday one thing was leading to another. Cohen obviously bungled the Stormy Daniels deal with the result that her lawyer Michael Avignati was on every TV channel, except Fox, making more and more revelations. Just in case this wasn’t bad enough Cohen’s partner in the Taxi medallion business, Evgeny Friedman, copped a nominal plea in return for cooperation with both the Feds and the State. They could have put him away for the rest of his life and his plea deal involved no jail time.The fact that he was charged in the New York State Court where the President has no pardon powers had to be obvious to Cohen, putting even more pressure on him.

 Cohen embarrassed the POTUS’S TV mouthpiece Sean Hannity who had to argue like mad that Cohen wasn’t really his lawyer. Michael, the bull in a China shop’s, third client was Elliot Broidy for whom he had bought the silence of a Playmate for well over a million dollars. Now the stories are that Elliot took the fall forThe Don. Broidy, a shady yet highly influential figure, contracted with the crown princes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to get the Trump administration to punish Qatar which they duly did. Broidy a film director, then received massive defense contracts from those countries. Broidy’s partner, George Nader, was also involved in some hairy discussions that involved Erik Prins of the notorious Seychelles meeting and others. Nader is, guess what, cooperating with Mueller and is the only witness thus far to get full immunity.

Some ominous verbiage buried in a Mueller submission to the court in a case involving the media’s demand for documents foretold that worse was to come. The Special Counsel argued, “ ..because there is so much that  is still unresolved in this case, details cannot be shared, and certainly not with a subject to this investigation, his legal team and his political acolytes”. This has to have sent more shudders down the spine of the Trump team.                                        

  

THE FORMER INTELLIGENCE HEADS MIX IN

If Comey and his record selling expose was not enough to challenge the actions of the President and his entourage, he was followed by a string of high ranking intelligence personnel. Firstly, the former CIA director John Brennan has been weighing in. He was soon to be followed by James Clapper, the former Director of National Intelligence, who wrote a stunning memoir entitled Facts and Fears. This publication followed the former National Security Advisor and CIA Director Michael Hayden’s book, Assault on Intelligence - American National Security in an Age of Lies.  

Comey, while still more believed than the President, has not the gravitas of Brennan, Hayden and Clapper, all long standing respected and highly knowledgeable Republican public servants who usually shun the public limelight. The enormity of these Public Servants’ statements has not sunk in. They are not political commentators. They were in charge of America’s security while the Russian intervention was taking place. In the long run their biggest political impact may be with the Republican legislators. 

John Brennan attacked the Commander in Chief’s competence and value system, “Trump is just unprepared for the challenges of leading the country….He is unstable, inept, inexperienced and also unethical. ….. . In a tweet he admonished the POTUS, “When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude and political corruption becomes known, you will take your rightful place as a disgraced demagogue in the dustbin of history….you will not destroy America, America will triumph over you”. The former CIA Director has also opined that Russia may well have something over the President. 

Michael Hayden’s tones were measured and academic. He critiqued that, “Trump’s predecessors respected the independence and judgements of the bureaucracy. Trump does not. He not only accuses the FBI, Justice Department and other agencies of forming a “deep state”, but also seeks to challenge, disrupt and exert control over them. He has a record of exaggeration, falsehood, misstatement and conspiratorial thinking. Trump just seemed to say whatever came into his head….and the Trump’s administration glandular aversion to even looking squarely, much less mounting a concerted response to it, (the Russian Interference), is an appalling national security lapse”.

James Clapper, besides the usual criticisms finally acknowledged the elephant in the room.  Trump was President because of the massive Russian intervention.. “to conclude otherwise, challenges common sense and credulity to the breaking point… Less than eighty thousand votes in three key states swung the election. I have no doubt that more votes than that were influenced ivy this massive effort by the Russians”.  

THE LAST STAND

Trump delegitimizing the Special Counsel’s investigation as part of the Dark State to remove him reached a new low when he forced the Justice Department to divulge classified information to Congressmen in relation to his new fiction, “Spygate”. Initially he only wanted two of his GOP allies to be privy but then relented and allowed two meetings, one of which included Democrats. The ostensible purpose was to prove that an FBI informant that had gained information on Trump campaign members, who had been in contact with the Russians, was a spy who had been planted for political reasons. Breaking time honored custom further, Trump had one of his lawyers and Chief of Staff present for part of the meetings. 

Needless to say not one of the attendees supported Trump’s contention that the informant was a politically motivated spy. This did not stop his out of control lawyer, Rudy Giuliani from demanding that the content of the briefing be handed over to him. This would help Trump. He believed that if the “Spy” had been put there illegitimately then the Justice Department should close the investigation down. He ranted, “Coupled with Comey’s illegally leaked memos means that the enquiry was a mistake”. On the basis of all this Giuliani would make a formal request to the Justice Department to end the enquiry. 

WHERE THIS IS HEADING

Rod Rosenstein, the Deputy Attorney General, who is overseeing the Mueller enquiry has made it quite clear that the Justice Department won’t be pressured. It is obvious that his capitulation to Trump on the spy meeting has not satisfied him. Very soon Mitch McConnell,  Republican Senate leader will be faced with the issue he claimed would never happen - the axing of Mueller.

Trump for his part is gambling for his life. He cannot afford this escalating hurricane to continue any longer as the whole House of Cards is on the verge of collapsing. It remains to be seen how the Republicans will react. The POTUS for his part would rather take his chances with a Republican controlled Congress then a Democratic one in November. 

If Giuliani continues, and there is no reason to believe he won’t, then it is a question of who in the Justice Department will resign. Ostensibly this gives Trump the opportunity to appoint those who will axe Mueller. The battleground might then become the Senate if he needs to get appointees confirmed.

 It is Nixon all over again. The major differences are that Nixon, crook that he was, ultimately accepted the Constitution. He also didn’t have Fox News and nor did he have a Republican controlled Congress.

At the end of the day the bullet is already out of the gun. There are already a ton of indictments. There have to be those that Mueller has ready to shoot to Courts both State and Federal. All the diversions in the world like micromanaging the NFL, calling meetings with Korea on and off will not divert attention from this travesty. (Nixon engineered a diplomatic breakthrough with China and brokered the Vietnam peace). 

 Donald J. Trump will not emerge from this whole. The problem is the damage he will have done to the essence of America.

THAT WEDDING: ELIZABETH II WAVES THE RULES.

America wallowed in the escapism of the sheer pageantry and fairy tale wedding of Prince Harry and his American commoner Princess, Meghan Markle as the Monarchy's changing attitude on societal norms was on display. Everyone was only to keen to put the squalid American “stuff” out of their minds -, be it only for a day. All the major networks and cable news channels flew their top anchors across “the pond”. They provided, with gusto and transparent joy, wall to wall coverage on every aspect of the celebrations. In addition there was much American about the hoopla although not of the fare Americans were accustomed to. Ironically, the audience in North America viewed, for the first time, the  blending of African America religious practices with traditional conservative Christian worship, on a British stage .

There has always been a fascination by the former British colony subjects for the majesty of the monarchy. In case anyone has forgotten Jefferson considered the major political threat to his Republican democracy Hamilton’s and President Adam’s desire to appoint a blue blooded king to be in charge of the newly liberated country. This sentiment has apparently lingered on in the unconscious.

SOCIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE OCCASION

It would be remiss not to reflect on the social significance of the festivities where the United Kingdom’s ninety - two year old Queen Elizabeth 11 stage managed and blessed the most momentous changes in societal norms in a century. Ironically, the genesis of this revolution of that conservative traditionalist’s world view had begun in the very same city where the societal metamorphosis was now being enacted - the City of Windsor. For Her Royal Majesty was ensconced at her beloved Windsor Castle when she learned of the tragic death of Harry’s mother, Princess Diana and initially was highly resistant in leaving her retreat to take part in the nation’s mourning. 

ELIZABETH AND HARRY’S MOTHER DIANA

Britain’s monarch is the standard bearer of the propriety of all matters British. That job definition includes being Defender of the Faith, i.e. the head of the Anglican Church, in addition to being responsible for protocols and the behavior of the landed gentry. She had been faced with an upstart Princess, her daughter in law Princess Diana for over a decade. The latter had behaved, to put it in the terms of Elizabeth’s world view, “very badly”. This even after she had divorced Charles. Besides her open flouting of conventional morality, even cavorting with a Muslim playboy, she had taken on the Royal Establishment by being actively involved in causes . All this had resulted in her being more popular than them and being labelled “The People’s Princess”.

Diana had had, on the face of it, all the credentials to be the next Queen. She was a virgin, a prerequisite in those days, and was bred in the purple coming from older aristocracy than Elizabeth herself. On the surface she was perfect to fill the role of consort to Elizabeth’s eldest son and heir thereby continuing the royal tradition of the monarchy of the British Empire. However, Diana Spencer rebelled as she was not prepared to grin and bear the fact that Charles had continued his relationship with his real and only love, Carmilla. She balked at a destiny that would assign her to be the breeding cow of the heir and the spare to the British crown. Furthermore Diana was not going to tolerate just opening bazaars and smile dutifully two steps behind Charles, she wanted an identity and a purpose of her own. She achieved this all. Her worst sin however was she blurped publicly what went on behind the palace closed doors.The publication of “Diana’s Story” was the last straw. 

Understandably the Queen, on learning of Diana’s tragic death in France saw no reason to leave her sanctuary Windsor Castle, where she was vacationing. The errant Princess had after all divorced herself out of the family. It was enough that Charles, against her advice, had gone to France to accompany her body back to England. The Monarch’s stance became more and more out of sync with the body politic as the spontaneous outpouring of grief of her nation became evident. Buckingham Palace, Elizabeth’s official residence, became plastered with flowers and messages as her subjects openly wept at their heroine’s passing. Daily the mourners increased mounting pressure on their Monarch to return to London to lament with them. Finally, after Prime Minister Tony Blair had implored her to leave Windsor and return to the nation’s capitol thereby acknowledging the tragedy did she consent. From then on her public acceptance that times were changing begun.

ELIZABETH’S HISTORY WITH SOCIAL NORMS

It was not as if England’s longest reigning monarch was, through the years, winging her response in maintaining the existing social order. She had been through a baptism by fire as to what the social norms should be. Elizabeth’s attitude had been ingrained from a young age when the royal family had felt betrayed by her uncle Edward VIII who abandoned his responsibilities in favor of marrying an American divorcee, This thrust her father into the monarchy and her into the immediate succession, a prospect she neither envisaged or wanted. She blamed the premature death of her father on this turn of events and never ever forgave her uncle for what she considered an unforgivable dereliction of his duty in order to meet his own needs.

She had not been the Sovereign for long before facing a painful dilemma.  Her sister Margaret, whose love affair with a divorced commoner, Peter Townsend, was common knowledge sought her approval to marry him. The Queen, as the head of the Church of England, demurred at the marriage request as Margaret required her permission  as she was under the age of twenty - five. Nor did she intervene when the Government vetoed the betrothal after her beloved sibling and closest friend turned twenty - five. Like her Uncle, Margaret  had to choose between duty and love.  For both of the sisters there was no doubt as to what her answer would be.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF TIME

Times were a changing and Elizabeth had to witness, over the years, the ongoing havoc that Margaret’s decision wreeked upon her life as she smoked and drank herself to death. Besides Charle’s disastrous marriage, which in retrospect was forced upon him, two other of her offspring Anne and Andrew also divorced.  She had allowed her other children to tie the knot with commoners, as presumably their partners were not divorced and the progeny would be distant from succession. 

So Elizabeth was coming to terms with the fact that in the second half of the twentieth century divorce was acceptable if the marriage had proved unsustainable. However, as far as Diana was concerned she believed that she had had a far greater responsibility and as a royal herself she should have known better. She should have sucked it all up for king and country. It was only after the British Prime Minister persuaded her that her aloof stance towards her former daughter in law’s memory would in fact do grave harm to the monarchy that she relented and returned to London to pay her respects with everyone else.

So when it came to Prince William’s choice of partner she was ad idem with society in embracing his choice of a popular commoner Kate Middleton. Nobody seem to care anymore if the future monarchs would not have pure royal blood pumping through their veins.

AND THEN CAME MEGHAN

Harry met Meghan in July 2016 on a blind date. What boggles the mind is what their mutual friend thought the two might have in common. Obviously the friend new them both far better than anyone could have imagined. From then it was gangbusters and within a month they were off on a camping trip to Botswana. Their privacy held for about half a year but the fact that the liason was serious was reflected in the fact that within six months the American divorcee had been introduced to Prince Charles, Harry’s father. The meeting was accompanied by a formal announcement by the Prince of the relationship with a furtive plea to the media to “cool it”. Needless to say that entreaty was ignored. What followed was a disgusting food fest, which explained why Harry’s two previous serious liaisons had backed off. Meghan Markle handled it all with aplomb, dignity and professionalism of some - one bred for the role.

It was round about this time that the Queen, not noted for her rash statements was quoted as being fully supportive of the affair stating that she, “was delighted to see Harry in a loving relationship”. The two were seen more and more together, in the knowledge that the matriarch of the social and religious norms of the country was onsides.

THE QUEEN TAKES OVER.

Many families face the challenging situation where both parties are marrying “out of the faith”. The situation that faced the Monarch was a circumstance where the social and religious situation was totally out of whack. Meghan was not only divorced she came from a background that was bi racial and a family situation that to put it kindly was troubled. In addition the prospective royal bride was entering an institution where the custom was to be apolitical when she like Diana was both distinctly political and an activist. She had even openly attacked her controversial President. Her profession, namely a celluloid star did not quite fit into the resumes that prospective partners to the royals might present. Ms. Markle was not Anglican either but rather Episcopalian which had to add to the woes of those organizers of protocols who have to put the show on the road. Finally, this marriage on its face challenged every taboo and prejudice that had dogged the royal family since time immemorial. 

The nonagenarion Elizabeth II attacked the "challenge" with relish and resolve. Firstly, the wedding would not be a State occasion but a Windsor family one putting her in total control. The fact that as it was not a State affair would mean that she would have to pay for it as well as the security, which sum amounted to over forty - five million dollars. While she was known to be tightfisted this did not deter her a jot. 

So what better venue was there than the town of Windsor with the formal reception in her beloved Windsor Castle and the ceremony in her place of worship of her choice, the Saint George’s Cathedral of Windsor. The problem of the presence of Trump would be resolved by not inviting any politicians, including the British Prime Minister, flaunting convention in yet another dimension. The personality and culture of her future granddaughter in law would not be drowned by the pomp and circumstance of the high Anglican tradition. Rather her background, religion and traditions would have equal exposure at what would become the most televised spectacle of the decade. 

So the world including America learned of the rich powerful African American Episcopalian heritage. They listened spellbound to the histrionics of the moving sermon delivered by the first African American Head of the Episcopalian Church. Reverend  Curry quoted the civil rights icon Martin Luther King’s words where he aptly argued that love conquered all. The sedate solemn Church was shattered by the Negro spiritual “Stand By Me” as the Queen visibly lapped it all up.

The traditionalists were not disappointed as there was plenty to discuss in relation to who was there and what they were wearing. Then of course there was the bride in her non ostentatious yet stunning bridal gown - the delightful children entourage - the gallantry of the groom’s father who accompanied the new Duchess of Sussex half way down the aisle and the confirmation of Meghan’s individualism as she walked a stretch on her own. While every couple to a lesser or greater extent exhibit their love for one another on this momentous occasion, Harry and his bride’s sincere absorption in each other was a joy to the most cynical of observers.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

So the Queen had done it and didn’t even look exhausted. Not only was she not lagging behind the social and religious norms of her society she was defining and leading them. The media, both traditional and social, echoed this conclusion. The hundred thousand enthusiastic spectators that lined the streets of the tiny City of Windsor was further evidence of approval of the festivities and what they signified. 

Her Royal Majesty had made the adjustments that were necessary for the monarchy to survive for the foreseeable future, albeit in another form. The social revolution that Princess Diana had pioneered and the independent role that royal consorts should play had been enshrined by the very Monarch that had opposed them. It was only fitting that it was “The People’s Princess” son's fierce individualism that had been the nidus for the transformation.

What with the rape of the Constitution by the “democratically” elected leader back home Jay. H. Ell is beginning to muse that Alexander Hamilton just may have had a point…

AMERICAN REALITY

It is only five days since eight children and two teachers were killed while attending school and it has already been forgotten. This was the two hundred and eighty - eighth school shooting in the US since 2009. In the same period the combined total of school shootings in Canada, Germany, Italy, France, UK, and Japan was five. 

THE TWO WORLDS OF TRUMP AND MUELLER

The future of the American value system and therefore its soul largely rests in the outcome of the confrontation between Special Counsel Robert Mueller and President Donald Trump. Their personalities and modus operandi match their respective visions as they both operate in their differing planetary orbits. The Commander in Chief is determined to stamp the cult of personality and authoritarianism on the American way of life while the Special Counsel slowly trudges on the well worn path of the rule of law. Their personalities reflect their missions - the politician determined to be in the public eye dominating the narrative through the media space while the officer of the law proceeds unseen and unheard. Ostensibly The Commander in Chief has the upper hand as he can effect the firing of the public servant. The latter has the intent of the Constitution and the institutions it has spurned to provide him cover in his toils. 

Fittingly, the subject matter of this battle is the central underpinning of a democracy - its electoral system. Mueller is investigating the illegal influence of a foreign adversarial power, Russia, which allegedly sort to support Trump over his opponent Hillary Clinton. His mandate extends further as he has to ascertain whether or not the Russians were assisted in their endeavor by Trump and or his campaign. Then of course if any other criminality is discovered including obstruction of justice or fraud the Special Counsel has a mandate to investigate and prosecute those. 

It has to be noted that ultimately this battle will be decided in the political arena as the President has protections that the average citizen has not. The accepted redress for Presidential “criminality” is impeachment by Congress, the grounds of which are defined as being treason, bribery or other high crimes or misdemeanors. It is for this reason that it is in the political arena that Trump has elected to fight. 

With this in mind the upcoming midterm elections will be crucial for the survival of the current POTUS. He has made it quite clear that he is going to be heavily involved ensuring that the election will be a referendum on his Presidency.

THE CONTENDERS 

Both contenders are masters of the fields in which they are waging conflict. The Donald is a charismatic demagogue and a genius salesman whose product for sale is himself. He is a gladiator who intuitively assesses the needs of his following and then promises them what they want. Mueller is the recluse who shuns publicity of any sort whose light is shone by others who vouch for his professionalism, thoroughness, impartiality and unequaled ability to unearth the truth. In this struggle their can only be one victor and ultimately it will be society through its electorate, their representatives and their institutions that will decide.

THE TACTICS  OF TRUMP AND ITS SUCCESS THUS FAR

For practical purposes Donald Trump has elected to fight, with no holds barred, in the political arena. It is fair to say that he has maintained his core support. Their enthusiasm has not flagged as they do not tire attending his ongoing mass rallies where he repeats and repeats his mantra which he has honed down to sound bites. He articulates that it is the “crooked, rigged system” that is out to get him as he is not part of the establishment. Specifically, he spits out, Mueller’s enquiry is a “witch hunt” and the whole issue is a “hoax” cooked up by the Democrats as they lost an election they should have won. The institution of the FBI is corrupt and biased towards the Democrats, he adds. They are part of “The Dark State” that seeks to undermine American democracy and their legally elected President, he summates.  

There is also a claim that the FBI had an uncover agent in the Trump campaign in the early days to follow the lead that the Russians were intervening, which has become the major talking point in his onslaught against the Mueller investigation.“There is no collusion”, (with the Russians) nor is their any obstruction of justice, he repeats and repeats ad nauseam.

In effecting his strategy, which in sync with his Presidential style, Trump demands absolute loyalty. His argument as verbalized by his long standing aide KellyAnne Conway is that his world consists of “alternative facts”. While his ability to lie with monotonous regularity was established on the campaign trail any hope that that may change with his ascendency to the Presidency was dashed on day one. He sent out his WhiteHouse Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, to defy a reality witnessed by the whole world by claiming that the audience at his inauguration was the largest ever. Nothing has changed since. The faithful accept this state of affairs.

The relevant question is how Is Trump faring in his fight for survival? The key parameter that he has to cheer him up is that his approval rating has remained steady, round about forty percent. Although this is between eight and ten percent below his electoral figures these people represent the base of the Republican Party. This points to another success, namely that for practical purposes his hijacking of the Republican Party is official. This puts the current GOP congressional representatives in a dilemma as to have any chance of electoral success they need his support in the midterm elections. Credit for this takeover is Trump’s. His non stop barrage of tweets are swallowed up as gospel by his followers and give direction to his base on a daily basis.

On the institutional side he has one major ally in the Intelligence Committee of House of Representatives that is batting for him big time. The Republican component of that body  has concluded that there was no Russian involvement in the 2016 Presidential election. Lead by Congressman Nunes they have focussed on investigating the investigators and the Mueller investigation itself. 

On the media side he has his Fox News that unconditionally supports him. The latter have an ardent following and their blind acceptance allows Trump to have an important continuing exposure to the body politic. Recently he has been joined on that stage by former Mayor Giuliani whose style meshes with his. It is not unimportant to have a major TV Network ready, willing and able to broadcast and back everything you say or do regardless of reality.

MUELLER’S OPERATION AND SUCCESS THUS FAR.

Mueller has no presence in the market place and his progress is noted by his legal maneuvers. His operation is water tight and there have been no leaks. The special counsel has the advantage of being able to employ the best legal brains and he has the investigatory back up of the FBI with subpoena powers over all and sundry including the President. Thus far he has had singular successes far exceeding, in the first year, any similar investigation. He has charged Trump’s campaign manager Paul Manafort, Manafort’s deputy Richard Gates, Manafort’s son in law, Jeffery Yohai, Trump’s National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn and a foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulus. Most significantly the latter four are all cooperating with the Special Counsel in his investigation. There have been two other guilty pleas, one by an attorney, Alex Van Der Swaan, and another by a Richard Pinedo who have links to the investigation. 

Significantly Mueller has also indicted thirteen Russian nationals and three Russian companies for interference in the election. Finally, Mueller’s referral for prosecution of Trump’s lawyer and ‘“fixer”, Michael Cohen, who had known involvement with Russia on Trump’s behalf, has shaken the Trump WhiteHouse to its foundations.

What is most impressive is the institutional support that Mueller has. The bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee has completed its investigation and concluded that the Russians did indeed interfere in the 2016 Presidential Elections in favor of President Trump. The Senate group also released a treasure trove of transcripts which provided Mueller with sources to check and cross check information and evidence. The Senate Committee affirmed its support for the Intelligence, Security and Law Enforcement Agencies all of whom reached the same conclusion. In addition both chambers of Congress have made it clear that the Mueller Investigation must be allowed to continue. In the Senate there is a bipartisan motion that mandates that Mueller remains in place. For the moment the Republican Senate Majority Leader won’t allow it to come to the floor, “Because it is not necessary”. The polls show overwhelming support for the investigation to continue.

In the public forum, on the other TV channels, the evidence of Trump’s campaign involvement in the election increases daily. The teams of reporters of particularly from The Washington Post, The New York Times who have been backed up, for example by, The New Yorker, Vanity Fair, Buzzfeed  and The Wall Street Journal have made a devastating impact on furthering the case of collusion with Russia as well as obstruction of justice by Trump. Added to all this are two block buster books by authors Michael Wolf and fired former FBI Director Comey that provide further fuel to the fire.

 Recently litigation instituted by a porn star, Stormy Daniels, uncovered his personal lawyer Cohen’s nefarious activities which have the potential to involve Trump. This litigation has already caused him to concede that he financed Daniel’s pay off, a fact that he had previously denied. To add insult to injury his ultimate acknowledgement of this has lead to a referral by the Government Ethics Committee to the Department of Justice for criminality for failing to report this transaction earlier. There is defamation litigation by a women accuser that a judge has allowed to proceed that could represent a second hazard for a deposition to be allowed from the POTUS. To add to the mix is emuloment litigation, which alleges that he has used his office for personal profit, is proceeding slowly. 

THE POLITICAL ARENA

However ultimately it is in the political arena that the results of Mueller’s indictments and guilty pleas and what has been revealed in the media about them face the greatest test. What has transpired thus far in bye elections has not been helpful to Trump. There has been an average of a seventeen percent swing from Trump’s numbers to the Democrats in Congressional Elections since the Presidential election. In 2017 there were seventy electoral contests for State and Federal vacancies. According to the influential pollsters, Fivethirtyeight, the Democrats have performed at least twelve percent better than expected. This outcome shows that anywhere and everywhere there is a swing away from Trump. If these results hold together with the approval rate of the President remaining below fifty percent this will result in a big swing to the opposition party. That could result in the Democrats, at least, regaining the House of Representatives.

THE UPSHOT.

The Trump camp with the assistance of Giuliani will not easily relent in their mission to derail or deligitimize the Mueller investigation. They are not to be underestimated. However how they hope to wish this all away is uncertain. There are indictments and campaign manager Manafort goes on trial in July with the prospect of a Cohen arraignment in the near future, Then there is no way they will shut the media up. At best Trump can hang onto his forty percent support and that is not enough to avoid a Democratic take over in the House and they can at the very least reopen the Congressional investigations.  

If Mueller, as all the portents indicate, produces a referral for Trump’s impeachment a Democratic House can proceed. They should not do so unless there is a bipartisan consensus. The Dems don’t want to repeat the same cynical partisan move that the Republicans were responsible for with the Clinton impeachment. It must be remembered that Nixon’s approval rating was around about forty percent till a conclusive case was brought against him and his numbers then dropped to twenty four percent. This ensured that the effort for his removal was bipartisan. The other crucial point to note is that the Nixon impeachment and his subsequent resignation took four years of investigations. So for those who are impatient for a conclusion they need to stick around. Trump and his new megaphone Giuliani are also calling for Mueller to wrap it up.

It is appropriate that a President that has been constitutionally elected is only removed from office after an exhaustive transparent process proves otherwise. 

Whatever the outcome in this counter intelligence investigation, Mueller will not deviate from his modus operandi of functioning within the rule of law while Trump will approach this matter, as he confronts everything else, by politicizing it as a personal assault and framing himself as a victim of the Dark State.