GUNS: THE CHILDREN MOVE THE NEEDLE

Against all odds the surviving victims of the Douglas Parkland High School shooting massacre, have provoked a national discussion on guns which includes challenging the all powerful and seemingly invincible National Rifle Association, (NRA), and its stranglehold over the ruling Republican Party. While it is still very early days their hash tag “Never Again” shows promise of emulating the other social revolutionary movement - the “Me Too” - wave. Within two weeks they have dominated the traditional and social medias. Their activism has resulted in the escalation of support of their cause rather than it fading away as so often has happened after each one of these tragedies. It has become the issue du jour. For the moment political relief is not on the cards as the Republicans have not cut the placental cord with the NRA who are turning the fight into a cultural war. The President has sent mixed messages agreeing with the last group he has spoken to. The NRA leader harangued that the assault on gun rights was anti American and was being lead by individuals, who all happened to be Jews, ranging from Karl Marx to Chuck Schumer. The latter demagoguery was regarded as anti - semitic  and The Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported that, “It freaked out Jews and heartened anti -semites”.

POLITICAL CHANGE IS A LONG WAY OFF.

The “#never again” phenomenon has a long long way to go before their organization, exuberance, passion and commitment results in meaningful change. David Hogg who has emerged as the de facto leader recognizes that consequential results will only be presaged by the removal of those supporting the NRA’s position at the ballot box. While claiming that the whole issue is non political he is mobilizing support to “throw the bums out”, who for practical purposes are the Republican Party. Bearing in mind that high school Juniors and Seniors are at the age where they may well be able to vote in 2018 this omen bodes badly for the current GOP who are on track to lose the House anyway. What is even more significant is the impact that this will have on the Republican Party in the future. Analysis has shown that the widespread success of the Democratic Party in the forty odd elections since 2016 was in no small part due to the millennial vote. Now what is referred to as Generation Y are poised to weigh in against the GOP. Reince Priebus’s fear, following the second Obama victory that the Republican Party would become an unsustainable whites only party is in danger of becoming reduced to an elderly white male party.

The “#never again” operation has created even more pressure on the rudderless Congress Republican majorities. They are in such disarray that the chance of an overall fix is non existent. Currently they are veering away from the principal demands to get shot of semi automatic guns and magazines with more than ten rounds. Their fearless leader Trump's main thrust is arming teachers which has virtually no support in the States. Everyone is in on jacking up of background checks without providing details of how they will include all gun sales and who will pay for them. Trump the cheerleader for this approach has to date worsened the situation by decreasing background checks with his war on the regulatory process. 

The practicality of mental health assessments, not to forget that the schools need workers to help identify and counsel disturbed youngsters, has not been addressed. There are those like Governor Scott of Florida who concentrate on school safety. He has proposed a security officer for every thousand students. Florida has approximately two million seven hundred thousand hundred students who should need two thousand seven hundred security officers. Then all the training,  paraphernalia and equipment that would be needed to put this into action has to make it a non starter. Most States will need Federal money and Trump has cut the amount of money for school security in his budget. 

Key to any progress would mean taking the NRA head on - a recurring theme in the “#never again” and #boycott NRA” campaigns. This is a conflict that the GOP legislators could not possibly contemplate. The best a few can effect is increase the age from eighteen to twenty - one that Americans can purchase the semi automatic that was used in Parkland. Banning bump stocks which turn semi automatics into automatic weapons seems to have the most consensus which begs the question why legislation wasn’t introduced to ban them after the Vegas shootings were they were used. Trump who was gung ho for age change is faltering after discussions with the NRA.

Finally, just in case anyone still is optimistic about progressive legislation they need to be reminded that The Republicans have banned the National Institute of Health and the Centre for Disease Control from doing any research on gun violence. No one in this current rethink has  even mentioned reversing this policy. Without proper data how can there be worthwhile action? The American Medical Association has policy that it announced in 2016 that defined gun violence as a “Public Health Crisis” and has called for Congress to reverse their policy forbidding the Center for Disease Control to research this phenomenon. 

The ruling Republican legislative response was summed up by Speaker Paul Ryan who claimed that there was no need for depriving citizens the right to purchase semi automatics as Parklands was a systems failure. 

THE #NEVER AGAIN MOVEMENT

The panache, dignity, peacefulness, and clarity which the leaders and the movement have handled this devastating event has been exemplary. Take one second to empathize with their situation. They escaped with their lives while their friends and colleagues were slaughtered in front of their eyes. They now face a situation where they perceive the politicians are doing nothing consequential to avoid a recurrence of this trauma. In addition there are the those on the internet who claim that the mass murder was staged and the leadership are nothing but crisis actors. Their response remains dignified and respectful even reflecting that this hateful garbage allows them further opportunity to put their point of view.

The articulate young leaders have provoked responses from politicians including the Governor of Florida and the President of the United States as well putting the NRA on the defensive.  Their sincerity, directness, obvious lack of a hidden agenda, rational anger and pain has culminated in a coalition of nation wide constituencies to help change the status quo. But their most significant inroads have occurred outside the political arena. They have received substantial financial support, $500,000 each from Oprah, Steven Spielberg, Film Producer Jeffery Katzenberg and George Clooney. Justin Bieber, Cher, Amy Schumer and Lady Gaga have tweeted their backing. There is massive public support for progress. Seventy percent of the population want tougher gun laws including banning semi automatics and nearly a hundred percent want real background checks.

There was an unbelievable immediate  response to their boycott appeal to corporate sponsors of the NRA bearing in mind the latter’s power and numbers. This sparked a new hashtag #Boycott NRA. First out of the gate were six car companies that provided discounts, Enterprise, Alamo and National who were then followed by Hertz, Avis and Budget. The First National Bank of Omaha, the largest private bank and issuers of the NRA Credit card which was loaded with perks terminated their arrangement as from March. Delta and United Airlines are no longer offering discounts and have been joined online buying car company True Car which provided card carrying members up to $3,400 savings. Cybersecurity Syntec and home security Simplisafe have axed their deals as well as has insurer MetLife. Needless to say the remaining companies are under heavy pressure to follow suit. Three key companies, Apple, Amazon and Google are under celebrity pressure to show the NRA the door. They stream the NRA’s television and a move from these companies might infringe First Amendment Rights.  One major discounter that if bolted would shake the flappable NRA big chief, Wane Lapierre would be Fedex abandoning ship. This is the only major company left that actually provides benefits for the members directly. 

A far reaching outcome was the announcements of Bank of America and Blackstone who declared that they were going to have “discussions” with the gun manufacturers with whom they have extensive financial involvements. Blackstone is a hedge Fund that has massive positions in Gun Manufacturing Companies. Both these financial entities have publicly stated they would be discussing the gun safety situation with their clients as to what they are able to offer in this regard. Pension and retirement funds have starting disinvesting from gun manufacture shares. There is generalized discussion at boycotting that sell semi automatics.  Dick’s Sporting Goods a major retailer of guns has voluntarily dropped the sale of these offensive weapons and Walmart have unilaterally raised the age that they will sell guns. The Square a financial services company will not process assault weapon payments. 

This disinvestment and boycott is reminiscent of one of the factors that brought about the end of apartheid. It was not the overriding factor nor could it be here but is a signal that the NRA are vulnerable.The ultimate bitter pill to the Republicans, who persist on being on the wrong side of history, is that the Democrats are using their moves for  gun control in a financial drive. 

The real test of the activist’s political success will be the impact they have on the midterm elections and whether their agenda will be a central theme.

 NRA RESPONSE AND HOW IS IT FINANCED?

The NRA went onto the offensive with a bang. Their playbook was the same as their GOP apologists focusing, rather, on the incident and why it shouldn’t have happened than banning war weaponry. The mantra is that the fault lies in the fact that the shooter slipped through the police cracks  - a system failure. The fact that he used a semi automatic weapon that with each bullet tears the insides of a victim and has a magazine that can fire fifty bullets is apparently not considered relevant. The doctors at Parkland Hospital, who deal with bullet wounds every day, maintained that a victim with an ordinary bullet fired from an ordinary gun causes a limited amount of damage as opposed to the explosion that the semi automatic generates. Most patients with gun shots are salvageable but children from Parkland School with a direct hit were not.

The system failure defense felt on deaf ears so Plan B was to escalate the dispute to the status of a cultural war. No one is better than the NRA’s executive head, Wayne Lapierre, to launch this blitzkrieg, and there was no more receptive audience to initiate the campaign than at the Conservative Political Action Conference. The latter was hosting Marechal - Le Pen who has not distanced herself from her antisemitic and holocaust denying grandfather who stated that she was his political heir. LaPierre developed this theme by identifying only prominent jews  as the main enemies of the NRA and America.  Karl Marx, Bernie Sanders, George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, Tom Steyer and Chuck Schumer were the leaders of a European Socialist Style conspiracy which was a political disease where citizens are repressed, freedoms destroyed and their firearms are banned and confiscated. (Jay H. Ell’s emphasis).  Needless today it was these “socialists” that had taken over the Democratic Party that were the source of this powerful plot to destroy America.

The NRA has a very distinguished life member, Putin ally, Alexander Torshin, who is wanted as a mobster money launderer in Spain. He is also Lapierre’s chief lobbyist in Russia and has an office in Washington. The McClatchy News Service reported that US Federal Bureau of Investigation was looking into whether Russia had funneled money to Trump’s Presidential campaign through the NRA. The latter spent thirty- one  million dollars in the effort and uncharacteristically started by financing him when he was a contender in the Primary. Two - thirds of that fortune was directed at vilifying Hillary Clinton. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Notwithstanding the wide spread support for the children of the #never again movement, don’t hold your breath waiting for gun reform unless there is a Democratic wave in the 2018 midterm elections. Before that happens it is going to get uglier and uglier the NRA appears to be resorting to the time honored scapegoat - the Jews. The rationale Lapierre could use was that five of the seventeen dead in Parklands were Jews and many who have been prominent in the resulting activism are of Jewish origin including the parents, family and friends of the slain.

But as the President has tweeted: “What many people don’t understand, is that Wayne, Chris and the folks who work so hard at the @NRA are Great People and Great American Patriots. They love our Country and will do the right thing.” The threesome - The NRA, Trump and the GOP legislators - are joined at the hip. Or will Trump sign any consensus gun reform Bill as he intimated with his meeting with lawmakers. If his reversal of the same promise he made on DACA is anything to go by there will be just a few meaningless “reforms”.  

GUNS: THE CHILDREN TAKE OVER

It is a devastating narrative when children can look into to their parents’ eyes and angrily retort - You have failed us. You stand by while we are slaughtered. We are sick and tired of hypocrisy, rationalizations and the cynical inaction by your elected representatives. The bottom line is that our lives have been sold to the National Rifle Association. The time has come for us to fight our own battles. 

The Parkland High School mass shooting was summed up by a Junior, Cameron Kasky,”My message for the people in office, your’e either for us or against us. We are losing our lives as the adults play around”. Ms Kasky then announced the protest march in Washington which would take place on March 24th. Another emerging leader and survivor, David Hogg, rallied the students with #Never Again. Delaney Tarr exclaimed, “Enough of thoughts and prayers… we  want change”. Within a few days the students of Parkland then Florida and finally the whole country had mobilized.

How does one respond to a child who refuses to go to school till this is sorted out? How do parents feel about their children doing daily drills as to how to react when a shooter arrives on the campus? The children’s assessment to these two existential questions, is that the adults just don’t care enough about to make gun control their number one priority. 

ANOTHER, (SIGH), MASS SHOOTING

The mass shooting at Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland Florida, the fifteenth in the first seven weeks this year and the eighth at schools, claimed seventeen dead and fifteen seriously injured. The media and society are so bored by it all that the first fourteen carnages went by unnoticed. The perpetrator, a mentally disturbed ex student, used a semi automatic rifle, the AR -15, which can fire dozens of rounds in seconds  and is ideal for war and the murder of children. Its lightweight, it’s easy operability and flexibility make it the weapon of choice for mass shootings. In this butchery 150 to 200 rounds were fired. It was one of his ten guns. Guns that can easily and legally purchased by anyone over the age of eighteen. A teenager over eighteen can buy an AR -15. It is even easier on line or at a gun show where all the so called back ground checks are dispensed with. 

The fact that all this is insane is irrelevant.  It is just regarded as a by product of the culture, the gun culture.  For justification protagonists look to their distortion of the Second Amendment, the intent of which was to be on the ready lest the British invade - not a license for anarchy. The wholesale weapon sale to the public, rather, is a product of the greed of the gun industry, its pimp the National Rifle Association, (NRA), and the lackeys they have been bought off with bribes referred to as campaign contributions. The annual thirty - three thousand gun related deaths are shrugged off as “collateral damage” of this pillar of what makes America Great. 

Then there is the cynical rationalization that if one keeps the guns out of the hands of the mentally unstable this will all stop. This explanation is gaining ground and is favored by the NRA. It is the fall back position of the Republicans and the President. This solution is trotted out after every disaster but never followed through upon. The problem is that the purveyors of this cant are very slow in providing even enough funds for the normal demands of mental health care. It is further inconceivable as to how this can happen as the Republicans have proposed cutting Medicaid the largest source of funds for mental care.  Just looking at one statistic gives a clue at the impracticability of this approach - thirteen percent of Americans are on anti depressants or have been on the psychotropic drug. Should they all be on the register? Most developed countries have a comparable prevalence of mental illness, yet other than in America mass shootings are uniquely rare, Canada has had only one this year.

THE RESPONSE PROTOCOL

 There is an unwritten protocol for the aftermath of these bloodbaths. Firstly only if enough are dead, will there be “Breaking News” and wall to wall media coverage. Then the predicable responses to the tragedy follow from the predictable sources. The gun reformers are once again briefly heard - the Gabby Giffords. the Michael Bloombergs. The apologists  blame everything and everybody other than the lax gun laws - “People kill - Not Guns” is the smug mantra of the NRA. The Democrats scream “I told you so”. The Republicans are “Not convinced that gun laws or reform could have prevented this tragedy”. However all have prayers for the unimaginable grief that the families are going through. There are tributes to the heroes in the saga who gave their lives to protect the children. Kudos are heaped on the first responders and medical personnel. There are interviews of everybody and anybody. The perpetrator’s background, personal and medical history is laid bare. Where he bought the guns is of endless fascination, heavens knows why as it is irrelevant - you can buy them anywhere. Nobody asks where he purchased the hoodie he was probably wearing. 

The human tragedy is dissected, family by family. The town pulls together. Counseling teams are flown in. There are flowers in the street and videos of shattered citizens wandering aimlessly around trying to come to terms with a disaster they never thought would hit their peaceful, law abiding town. If someone has action shots taken from their cell phones the footage is run over and over and over again.

Central to it all are the Legislative mourners who more often than not appear at one or other of the regular briefings. The President offers his sympathies, admiration and support for the bereaved and the town in general. The Governor, in this instance, addressing the Parkland community in an act of magnanimity, announced that the State will pay for the funerals of the victims. The media cover the funerals which cannot bring closure to the grieving community. 

It all goes on for as long as the news cycle will bear…. 

And then nothing changes until the next shooting where there are enough dead to earn the status of “breaking news”. Maybe it will be the twenty - fifth mass shooting of the year, the other ones being missed as they were not bloody enough to be brought to the conscious of the viewing public. But be reminded while nothing appears to be going on, in the interim some of the thirty - three thousand that die because of the easy availability of arms, are busy dying.

WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

For decades and after each mass shooting the cry is “What will it take to make a meaningful comprehensive approach at ending this carnage”. President Obama made it a top priority. The tragedy at Sandy Hook Connecticut in 2012 where twenty children aged six and seven were gunned down with six teachers was thought to be the final straw. Obama, the Democrats, the gun control groups gave it a full court press for reform. What could be more persuasive then the cold blooded mowing down of tiny tots? That attempt went nowhere. The most recent incident to create a Breaking News bohaai was the evil and systematic gunning down of fifty - eight concert goers while injuring five hundred in Las Vegas. That was less than six months ago and produced no changes in legislation. The shooter also possessed an arsenal including semi automatics which he converted into automatic weapon with a bump stock. Even attempts at outlawing that pernicious piece of equipment went nowhere. Trump favors bringing back the great Wild West with teachers armed so as to have shoot outs with the perpetrators!

All this begs the question as to whether anything will change following Parklands. There is however a new variable - the militancy and anger of the pupils of the school specifically and throughout the country generally.

STUDENT PROTEST 

A new voice has been heard in the gun control debate. Starting at the victimized school spreading across the State of Florida and now throughout the country, school students are mobilizing. They bring a freshness and sincerity to the debate. They are unencumbered with partisan baggage and are literally one issue activists. They are all on the cusp of the voting age and as such may represent a very powerful pressure group.

In the wake of the bloodbath the ritual media interviews followed. The students, some of whom were extremely articulate posited a different narrative in addition to their pain, sorrow and anger.  They started agitating for gun control and quickly caught the attention of the media who gave them all the time in the world to air their views. This is a new generation who more than any other have a platform to communicate - social media. They have thus plenty of experience at  crystallizing their thoughts and ideas. While they were stating what had been said again and again, they were a new constituency as yet unheard from. In addition they have no inhibitions, no constituency to answer to or legislative seats to worry about. Like College Students they had no families or debts as yet that interfere with social awareness. So the twenty  - four hour Cable News Networks had a new perspective with able spokespeople who were capturing the attention of their viewers. CNN organized a Town Hall and made it a key feature with a clock running for two days indicating the count down go the feature.  

Protests were first at the immediate site of the bloody classrooms. They then moved across the State to towns like Fort Lauderdale and Tallahassee, the State capital, and then across the country. At Tallahassee the student observers got their first lesson of the real world where they witnessed, to their bewilderment, the Republican dominated legislature voting overwhelmingly against banning semi automatic weapons.The students have their well worn means of communication - social media - and it was reported that students would be walking out of classrooms throughout the whole country. The walk out is to last seventeen minutes in honor of the seventeen slain.  In Florida the students left their classrooms to march to Parklands. One of the students claimed that this was a revolution. A typical posting on Facebook ran as follows:

“We are the students, we are the victims, we are the change, fight gun violence now. High School students across USA, the way to fight back is here. There has been too much complacency on the part of politicians when it comes to gun violence. The time to act is now!”

The attacks have become specifically directed at politicians as well. In Florida the two singled out are Senator Marco Rubio and Governor Scott. The students have vowed to expose all the politicians who rely on NRA money and have attacked President Trump. The latter was pressured to have a session where he will listen to the various constituencies in Parkland. That in itself is no mean feat - to have provoked enough of a flap to command the presence of the POTUS. They claim that their objective is to make their mass gun shooting tragedy the last and are planning a massive protest march in Washington on March 24 entitled “March For Our Lives”. For those who can’t make it to the capitol there are to be other marches in other parts of the country as well.

The student action has turned this tragedy into a cause celebre with wall to wall coverage provoking the Rush Limbaugh and Bill Rileys to claim that they are just Democratic Party stooges. 

OUTCOME;

Whatever the outcome of the efforts of the students of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas School in Parklands Florida they have added a new dimension to the gun control debate.  They have caused a ripple effect resulting in one major Republican donor to threaten not fund any candidate that accepts NRA money. The planned walk out on March 14 has gained the support of the prestigious Women’s March pressure group.

How this will all end nobody knows. If history is anything to go by it will fizzle out. However the issue is not in isolation with what is going on in the country at the moment.  As matters stand there are twenty - nine influential  Republicans not standing for re election making a Democratic take over of the House that much more likely while the Republican WhiteHouse is under siege. (The fact that two - thirds of the electorate favor gun control and banning of semi - automatic guns and ninety -  seven percent believe in comprehensive back ground checks for everyone is irrelevant as the Republican legislators have long ago stopped representing them). So who knows? Maybe the children will achieve what their parents couldn’t.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Nothing has changed on the national scene. The Russian troll farms are weighing in heavily in favor of gun rights and smearing the students in the process. The conspiracy theorists are once again maintaining that Parklands is a hoax…..

MANDELA’S SOUTH AFRICA RESUSCITATED BY RAMAPHOSA

To an audible sigh of relief, intermingled with cries of joyful disbelief, President Jacob Zuma, with every possible escape route blocked, finally resigned. In so doing the nine year old nightmare of corruption, graft, bribery and fraud that had spread throughout South Africa like a cancer ended. Zuma had tested the infant South African democracy to its limits and he was scarily close to turning it into yet another banana Republic with his bullying, authoritarian and scandalously unlawful behavior. 

The South African celebration was magnified by the fact that Zuma’s replacement was the charismatic and competent Cyril Ramaphosa, (CR), who in many ways, for decades, had epitomized the post Mandela future of the non racial state. While Nobel Laureates Nelson Mandela and Willem de Klerk were the principal dramatis personae in the successful transformation of apartheid South Africa to a democratic non racial state, they would be the first to agree that it could not have happened without the backroom operatives such as CR.

So Zuma grudgingly passed the baton onto Cyril Ramaphosa in this the hundredth anniversary of the birth of Nelson Mandela. Ironically CR had been the icon’s choice in 1999 to be his successor. Unhappily South Arica’s trajectory has been downhill ever since. The immediate nine years after the euphoric Mandela reign was under the stewardship of the remote Thabo Mbeki who had waged “the struggle against apartheid” from London. The uninspiring Mbeki gained notoriety by becoming the Aids Denier in Chief. (Mandela rather than attacking him directly spearheaded, with the help of the Clinton Foundation, the widespread availability of retrovirals).  South Africa’s downhill trajectory was accelerated when Mbeki was replaced by Zuma who even at the time of his inauguration was already under the cloud of unseemly criminality both in his personal and public life. Zuma turned out to the disaster that so many had predicted. 

DEMOCRACY ULTIMATELY TRIUMPHED - BARELY

In the run up to the ANC Assembly’s election for its 2018 leader it became painfully obvious to all that a deep rift had developed between Zuma and CR. This spat assumed more than the usual significance because a desperate Zuma needed to ensure his succession in order to prevent any possibility of criminal prosecution. 

Zuma who had racked up a decidedly negative public persona in his shambolic Presidency faced major setbacks which were magnified in the last year of his reign. Firstly, the Supreme Court ruled that Zuma could face over seven hundred charges of corruption that had been held over for over a decade. The Constitutional Court of South Africa decided against him in the allegations that he had used State moneys in the building of his private quarters in Nkandla. The prosecution was lead by a brave Constitutionally mandated Public Protector, Ms Thuli Madonsela. His resignation was demanded and predictably declined by the teflon President.

Then there were the two firings of Finance Ministers who refused to sanction purchases and contracts that stunk to high heaven. The most recent involved Mr. Pravin Gordhan who was in no way going to sanction a deal with Russia for the purchase of several nuclear reactors. The public protests to this axing were unprecedented. The streets were lined from Cape Town to the outer Northern reaches of Gauteng. The ANC were getting the message that their reversals in the Municipal elections would be magnified if the rot was not stopped. 

The final major public relation disaster was the publication of Jacques Pauw’s expose “The President’s Keepers” which detailed the corrupt cabal and the criminality involved in the Zuma regime. Zuma threatened legal action and demanded withdrawal of the book with the same success as Trump had in stopping Michael Wolf’s disclosure “Fire and Fury”. Both authors had constitutional protection.

All these events had to dent the vast influence a President might have in actively canvassing for his successor - after a corrupt nine years there had to be so many that owed the President. Also the fact that Zuma cynically was pushing the view that it was time for a woman President, his own ex wife, ensured the support of the Women’s League of the ANC. CR barely scraped home by a one hundred and seventy - nine votes out of close on five and a half thousand electors thereby changing the future of South Africa. 

RAMAPHOSA’S STELLAR CREDENTIALS

In The Beginning - COSATU

The sixty - five year old South African President is no political neophyte. In fact you could tick off every possible box that an aspirant leader of the Republic of South Africa might need for success. He started off as an activist in the black student movement. His anti apartheid credentials were then buttressed by two prolonged detentions without trial in the seventies. 

He became the successful head of the South African Trade Union movement in the eighties. He started of in the economically sensitive area of mining, forming the National Union of Mineworkers. He then was the driving force in the creation of the all embracing Congress of South African Union of Trade Unions, (COSATU). CR had successfully exploited the concession made by President PW Botha in his Reform Project to allow for the collective organization of workers. In no time he dramatically increased the membership of COSATU. His control of the majority of African workers in the country was to become an overriding factor in his influence at every level, including in breaking down apartheid and in the subsequent run up to the creation of the new South Africa.

Political and Theoretical Work to Create a New South Africa - CODESA

Ramaphosa could have earned his place in history simply for his role in negotiations between the different constituencies in shaping the future of South Africa which culminated in his Chairmanship of the Committee that produced the new Constitution. In these endeavors his diplomatic and organizing skills were superb. He had swopped his leadership of COSATU by then, (1991) for the  Secretary Generalship of the ANC, ironically, beating Zuma for the position, This job change increased his bargaining powers exponentially. In addition to his gargantuan policy - making duties he increased the ANC’s membership by hundreds of thousands. 

When one considers the vast number of diverse viewpoints that had to be welded into consensus and the fact that the future had to rise, phoenix like, from the ashes of the discrimination, racialism and injustices of apartheid, it is a miracle it all came into being. There were the citizenry of the white apartheid party and their white opposition, the black freedom parties, and eight indigenous tribes whose needs had to be met. All this maneuvering while the Xhosa ANC and the Zulu Inkatha were in open warfare. The latter hostility was stoked on by white rogue South African security forces who could form the nidus of a possible right wing white insurrection against the new order,

The consultations, bargaining and horse trading that took place following the De Klerk declaration and the release of Nelson from prison took place at CODESA, The Convention for a Democratic South Africa ,which was attended by nineteen political organizations. There were endless territorial battles and disputes including de Klerk’s decision to hold a referendum among whites as to whether they supported the new dispensation. Another explosive concern was the demand to the ANC to disband their military wing. Tony Leon former leader of the white opposition Democratic Alliance and Rolf Meyer the chief negotiator of the then white ruling Nationalist Party have waxed eloquently at the masterful role that Ramaphosa played in the run up to Independence. The first CODESA concentrated on the preliminary work of transfer and then divided up into working parties that were to effect the changes. The key committee was the formulation of a new Constitution, which was the charge of CR.

Constitution

The Constitution was subject to intense scrutiny and the first draft took nearly two years in the making. CR invited public and institutional opinion. The finished product detailed the role and responsibilities of office bearers and legislative entities at every level. The cardinal commitments were to the sovereignty of the law and a Bill of Rights. It is not an exaggeration to argue that the Constitution of South Africa played a key role in the ultimate ouster of what was labelled Zexit. Central to the integrity of the Constitution was that the final arbiter as to its interpretation was to be in the hands of an Independent Constitutional Court.

Ramaphosa Turns Businessman in 1999 Following his Failure to be Mandela’s Successor

Shattered by the adverse outcome of the power struggle between him and Mbeki, as to who would be Mandela’s successor, CR decided to venture into the business world where he achieved phenomenal success. He formed his own investment company Shanduka and became Chairman of two other vast national entities. He was on the board of multiple corporations including Standard Bank, South African Breweries Miller and Alexander Forbes. His international involvements included Mondi and McDonalds. Other investments included diamonds, petroleum and real estate. When finally returning to politics in 2014 he reportedly either disinvested from the companies or placed his assets into a blind trust.  One well publicized outcome of his holdings was the formation of the Cyril Ramaphosa Foundation. The latter focuses on education having supported close on a thousand schools and a million learners. Assistance to small business was another goal and reportedly his largesse has been the spur for ten thousand new jobs. 

His estimated wealth is well over five hundred million American dollars.

 CR Returns to the National Scene as Deputy President

In 2014 he was drawn back to his roots - politics. He was elected Deputy Leader of the ANC which ensured that he would be South Africa’s next Vice President. Even after his long absence he was overwhelmingly backed by the more than five thousand representatives who participate in the ANC National Assembly. As some one who had been out of politics for that length of time this achievement was pretty remarkable. For whatever reasons his nemesis President Jacob Zuma backed him. 

It is fair to say the last four years had to have been the most uncomfortable of CR’s life. There was non stop harassment as he sat silently and morose while being mocked at ostensibly colluding with the rogue President. The Opposition repeatedly asked him what he was doing to counteract the actions of Zuma who was undermining the very constitution that he had been responsible for.

CR has been dogged by a major scandal referred to as the Marikana Massacre. Ironically, bearing in mind his roots, he was said to be responsible for the police killing of thirty -  four striking miners at his Lonmin holdings. Ramaphosa characterized the miner protests as criminal rather than industrial. The subsequent independent judicial enquiry concluded that whatever his actions were they did not result in the largest incidence of security violence since apartheid. Whichever way this is diced and sliced Ramaphosa, the father of Trade Unionism in South Africa, called for a massive police presence in response to what was generally beleived to be industrial unrest.

Ramaphosa was also accused of hushing up extra marital affairs, allegations which seemed to dry up with his denials. 

PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA

CR has started his Presidency with a bang. His universally acclaimed State of the Nation Address was hailed as he comprehensively addressed all the issues that the country faced. He has made it quite clear that there had been no deal to secure Zuma’s resignation. The fact too that he meant business in cleaning up house was evident when the Gupta family, the recognized President’s Keepers, were raided - an event that would have been unimaginable a week earlier. In addition Zuma’s bloated cabinet is out. The markets have reacted favorably and the Rand has strengthened against the dollar. The expectations are high. One fact that is for sure is that CR has the skill set to carry on from where Mandela left off. Mandiba’s legacy has once again been rejoined. 

ROCKET MAN OUTMANEUVERS TRUMP

Donald Trump, who has aspirations to be a military leader - parades and all - has been escalating his rhetoric to support some or other strike against North Korea. (If The Don wants to prove whose button is bigger military parades are not the way to go as the North Korea’s totalitarian dictator is the real deal when it comes to military circuses). 

 The South Korean Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games was to be the backdrop for consolidating opposition against the rogue government of Rocket Man and dynamo Vice President Mike Pence was entrusted with the project.The POTUS was frustrated by diplomatic maneuvers by Kim Jun Un and his historic deal with South Korea’s Moon Jae -In. The small man from across the Korean border lead his charge with a large North Korean delegation dominated by his attractive sister Kim Yo Jung, one of his closest confidants. He was aided in his counter to Trump by the conciliatory symbolic gesture of South Koreas’s Premier who agreed to a combined Korean Olympic Team participating under one flag thereby according North Korea acceptance, status and respectability on the world stage.

The miscalculation our testosterone loaded leader made in his quest for martial recognition is that the real existential threat the dictator, with the small button, poses is to his immediate neighbor South Korea then Japan and not America. South Korea’s Moon Jae - In was not about to sacrifice his security to bolster the insecure American’s loud mouth. Even less was he going to allow his showpiece games to act as a backdrop for the preparation of aggression that could decimate his half of the Korean Peninsula. The Olympic host’s objective was to broker a truce and his ruthless Northern counterpart was, for the moment, more intent in blunting the POTUS’S influence in this region.

What happened in Pyeongchang is bound to have a profound impact on the world stage. 

BACKGROUND TO PENCE’S QUEST

The very fact that Trump had nominated such a high profile member of his Administration to sit in the cold was indicative of the top priority that coalition formation against Kim Jun Un represented. The Vice President made it embarrassingly clear that he was not in favor of the symbolic rapprochement of a combined Korean team. Normally wisely in the background, Pence was responsible for the one sour note in the colorful spectacular opening ceremony. This he achieved by remaining seated with his good lady midst the standing exuberant and ecstatic spectators and athletes from all countries who were celebrating the entry of the combined South and North Korean Olympic team.  In truth he had been given an impossible assignment, under the circumstances - go declare war when the prevailing sentiment was celebration and to give peace a chance.

Trump had drawn a line in the sand with regard to North Korea’s missile testing. He had introduced the most devastating sanctions to date and there was no hint at diplomacy. Typical of the Trump doctrine, it was his way or the highway. As Jay H. Ell discussed in his last blog, “Will Trump The Street Fighter Survive?”, all pointers were for launching an attack of sorts on North Korea. He was not leaving any way out if the small buttoned Kim predictably pressed his button to unleash yet another missile. When challenged on the dangers of his tactic in typical style The Don flashed back, “Past experience has taught us that complacency and concessions only invite aggression and provocation. I will not repeat the mistakes of past administrations that got us into this dangerous position”.

 The POTUS’S bombast forced the withdrawal of his nominee as Ambassador to South Korea, the well respected, former Bush appointee, Victor Cha. Cha disagreed with the Trump’s approach to “bloody nose” the North Korean leader. Cha feared that Trump’s State of the Nation speech was a portent to attacking North Korea without South Korea’s Moon Jae -In’s buy in. This dread he shared with the South Korean Premier, so like scores of others in the one year old chaotic Trump Presidency, Cha was marched out the revolving WhiteHouse door. North Korea responded to Trump’s threats in an attack dripping with irony.  They referred to the rampant homelessness, gun violence and rife sexual assault ravaging America, and straight out of the Marxist playbook added, “In the US the absolute majority of working masses, deprived of elementary rights to survival, are hovering in the abyss of nightmare”.

Pence’s main weapon was to try and provide a reality check as to who they were all dealing with - a coldblooded murderer and ruthless dictator. The narrative was underscored by resorting to human props. Included as a key member of the US delegation to the games was the father of Otto Warmbier, a twenty - two year old University of Virginia student who had been tortured to death by the North Koreans. He was seated in the President’s box with the President of the IOC and leaders of participating countries. The devastated Warmbier was no stranger to the American public having been featured in Trump’s State of the Union, (SOTU), speech. Pence, like Trump in his SOTU oration to the nation focussed his attention on North Korean defectors to further underline what a totalitarian regime the world was dealing with. 

While the South Koreans have to be ambivalent about all this there is little doubt, gaging their euphoric response, they are supportive of their recently elected leader’s peace initiatives.

ROCKET MAN’S MOVES

To anyone who believes that this Korea thing just happened let Jay H. Ell hastily disabuse them of that thought. This whole choreographed production must have taken high level sophisticated ongoing tedious diplomacy with give and take. To send over his cheerleaders, his high powered delegation and his women ice hockey players while downsizing a military parade in return for one flag and no joint military exercises with America, did not happen over night. Nor did the two hour meeting between Moon Jae - In and Kim Yo Jung occur in a vacuum. The ostensible outcome of it all, an invitation to the South Korean President to visit North Korea also was not sprung on the host. All this added to the discomfort of the Enabler in Chief Pence and to the fury of the Commander in Chief.

The thought of which events to blend in the North Korean athletes took much thought. There was no way that most of the North Koreans qualified for any of the individual events. In any case it was too late to enter them. The South Korean women’s hockey team had qualified as a team and nobody can dictate who can be in a team. To the dismay of the South Korean women’s ice hockey team, not to mention their American coach, Sarah Murray, who had been working with them for ages, several were to lose their places to the North Koreans. They weren’t asked they were told just over a month ago that some of them would drop out to accommodate the twelve young North Korean players that had been selected by the political accord. So with Kim Yo Jung and Moon Jae -In in attendance, while 120 North Korean cheerleaders pranced in the background, it mattered not that the combined Korean team were trounced eight nothing in their first game. 

So the young dictator, who starves his people in favor of producing military hardware, orchestrated a worldly gambit that has changed the political landscape of the region and the world.

UPSHOT OF THE OFF STAGE DIPLOMACY AT PYEONGCHANG

If Donald J. Trump was banking on Mike Spence garnering world support behind the scenes at the Winter Olympics to attack North Korea just the opposite happened. The blunderbuss utilized to bring home the bacon was human evidence of the North Korean atrocities in the form of the bereaved Mr. Warmbier and Mike Pence’s embrace of North Korean refugees. What resonated in the Republican dominated State of the Union speech was drowned by the rapprochement of the two Koreas. The enthusiastic crowds did not relish using this joyous celebration to face the dark reality of the North’s world. Rather they basked in the success of the South Korean story and the prospect of detente with their Northern brothers after nearly a century of war. While Moon Jae - In was careful to include an exhortation to the military dictator in the North to entertain talks with his American allies he obviously realized that a new paradigm in Asian political life had been born.

To sum up if Donald Trump is to attack North Korea militarily in this backdrop he is on his own. If he persists with his belligerency what will be the outcome if he continues his rhetoric with or without aggression?

THE NEW WORLD LINE UP

In case anyone had missed it the center of gravity in world power is shifting away from the North American - European axis to an Asian - Russian axis, even in sport. The 2020 Olympic Games are in Japan and in 2022 the Winter Olympics are back in China. In the financial sphere Obama recognized the reality of the rising Asian markets with their billions of people. This was the basis of his administration’s embracing the Trans Pacific Partnership which Trump has trashed. China cheerfully has stepped into the vacuum. 

So where does this leave Trump’s America in the emerging powerhouse of Asia? To put this all into the Korean context what is to stop the China/Russian axis backing South and North Korea teaming up? China is currently reluctantly backing the USA in their sanctions on North Korea. Periodically Trump berates them for not doing enough. Now China is not worried to the same extent about Kim’s nuclear program and neither would be South Korea if an accord could be reached. If America went ballistic at the latter Moon Jae - In would be reassured if he could swop China’s support for the unreliable quarrelsome Trump. The day of American imperialism is over.

So Trump is skating on even thinner ice after the Winter Games and if he goes off on a rant or unilaterally attacks North Korea, besides the fall out, he could surrender what remains of the US influence in the Northern Pacific.  

AT THE END OF THE DAY

No - one should underestimate the significance of what has transpired on the Korean Peninsula with the Pyeongchang games as a backdrop. This sports event has even greater significance than the Nixon/Kissinger ping pong match with China. The new South Korean leader has risked all taking on Trump’s America  - a decision he could have not come to lightly. He could not have proceeded in this direction without at least consulting the Chinese. This should make the POTUS pause before he carries on his bating of the paranoid North Korean dictator. If he had any insight he would realize how dangerous it could be to annoy a megalomaniac who has his finger on a nuclear button, even if it is a small one. Mercifully, the Vice President seems to have absorbed the message if his Washington Post comment that diplomacy has not been entirely jettisoned is anything to go by.

Whichever way you look it the diplomatic moves accompanying the Pyeonchang Games have heralded  an irreversible dive of American influence in the region.