Viewed from the perspective of the Trump thirty point victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential election in Alabama, the triumph of Democrat Doug Jones over Roy Moore in that state’s Senatorial election is nothing short of miraculous. For the first time in three decades the Democrats have elected a Senator in the deep South a region that even Obama ignored, calculating that he could win the Presidency without its electoral votes. The South’s tight tribal like loyalty to its tenets of fundamentalism and the status quo had made it an impenetrable challenge to the Democrats. This sector seemed to have closed ranks, even more, at the fear that the liberal Obama Presidency had threatened their way of life, and had enthusiastically voted for Trump, in response.
The immediate reverberation at the Senate result was shrieks of disbelief and delight by the Democrats while the Republican legislators heaved an audible sigh of relief. Their nightmare that between now and 2018 they would have to drag the albatross of this flawed representative across the corridors of Congress, to every Press Briefing and town hall meeting had been eradicated. Notwithstanding the GOP legislators’ initial enthusiastic greeting of the stunning outcome which dealt a life threatening blow to the architect of the disaster, Stephen Bannon, they were left with a Party in tatters. Its leader President Trump’s approval rating was at its lowest, thirty two percent level. Several inexplicably responded by closing ranks behind the leader, “Who is never wrong”.
The groundswell celebration at the reprieve was witnessed across the country and the world. The insane order of Trumpism and Bannonism had finally been checked. The more orderly Western World having basked in the Progressivism of Barack Obama who they had regarded as the poster child of America’s march to fulfilling the intent of their constitution were finding it difficult to comprehend the atypical Trump regime.
All this has left the punditry looking for and putting forward explanations as to how this all came to be.
THE REASON - MOORE WAS A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE OR WAS IT TRUMP?
It can be argued that the controversial Moore was a terrible candidate and his own previous interstate electoral victories were far from convincing. However, President Donald Trump did all in his power to turn this election into a referendum on his Presidency and for the agenda of the Republican Party. He punctuated the debate with supportive tweets, held a rally twenty - five miles from a key metropolitan area, called the candidate and issued robocalls. He emphasized and re - emphasized that the Republican Senate couldn’t afford to lose the vote. He instructed the faithful to vote for Roy Moore. Whichever way this race can be sliced and diced the outcome for the rudderless Republican Party, is a train smash with President Trump and Steve Bannon in the driver’s cabin.
On a more mundane level analysts are scrutinizing every possible variable as to how the centuries’ old tribalism associated with the segregationist, evangelical and fundamentalist South was breached. Added to the former potent mix was the reinforcement of isolationism anarchy and anti establishment that Bannon brought to the table. He and Trump had successfully exploited the paranoia of those who had been left out by the self serving elites and whose prosperity was being stolen by Latino immigrants who kept down their wages while Obama’s Muslim friends were risking their future. Moore epitomized it all cheerfully taking on the McConnell Republican Establishment as well as the Democrats.
THE SEXUAL PREDATORY REVELATIONS THE CAUSE?
Uppermost as an explanation for the reversal and the penetration of the tribe were the forty year old allegations of Moore’s sexual predatory behavior on teens, as exposed by the Washington Post a month earlier. This shocking expose was laid bare in the context of a revolutionary change in the attitude to the exploitation of women. While this may have been one of the factors there is no evidence that it was the principle reason. Just looking at one statistic - Trump in the Presidential election garnered fifty two percent of the white woman vote and Moore chalked up over sixty percent in Alabama. The pundits supporting the predatory hypothesis said that the mothers split for Jones. However the “mothers” category included all races so there was no proof that the white mothers opted for Jones. In addition The Post article came out in November when sixty percent of the electorate had already made up their minds already favoring Jones. The twenty seven percent that decided after the article favored Moore. So Jay H. Ell believes that there is no hard evidence that this issue was anywhere near central for the thirty percent reversal.
Frank Luntz in focus groups of Moore voters canvassed the attitudes as to the Moore predatory behavior and the outcome was depressing. Whether it be hypocritical or not the Moore voters believed even if the allegations were true, and most didn’t, the righteous Moore would have been forgiven long ago. “Why did these women wait thirty years and then tell the Washington Post just before the election”. Also they stated that in that period in Alabama history fourteen year olds were getting married. In general without verbalizing it explicitly they believed these young women had choice. Put another way they do not see them as victims by definition. While these were the attitudes of those that stuck with Moore these expressions do not back the theory the Moore sexual predatory allegations played the central role. They certainly had to have played a part in his downfall but like Trump a year previously he may well have survived them. Some pundits even argued that they helped Moore mobilize his moribund base.
MOORE’S OTHER POSITIONS
It is fair to argue that Moore represented the most extreme form of the tenets of the Deep South’s tribalism. He wore his unashamed bigotry as a badge of honor. He harkened back to the good old days of slavery and would get rid of the Constitutional Amendment that gave the woman the votes. He was twice removed from the bench for defying the Constitution. He was gung ho with Bannon’s lunacy. He was heavily supportive of the LGBT hate crowd and had scant respect for the Constitution which allied him with Trump. All in all this freak show was to be enshrined as the leader of the tribe not only within the State of Alabama but as its representative to the nation and the world.
A point that was hammered again and again by the Moore detractors both within and without the Republican Party was, “Was this the anachronistic bigot that they wanted to be recognized by?” Appeals such as those by the Senior Republican Alabama Senator, who appealed for principle over politics, Condi Rice, George W.’s Secretary of State who asked her native Alabamians to reject bigotry, sexism and intolerance and Republican Senator Jeff Flake who donated to the Jones campaign and who exhorted the electorate to decency, underlined what they felt the urgency of the situation was in relation to the country.
So it is fair to say that much as Trump had hijacked the GOP Moore had done the same in Alabama and were the electorate going to fall for it again? Trump and Bannon had no doubt they would.
JONES THE MAN
Enter the “decent” man Doug Jones as much a product of the South as any of them. Many of his positions were an anathema to the tribe - the most important being the Woman’s Right to Choose. Of all the tenets of the Evangelical South, opposition to abortion was central. That is why they had backed and forgave the sinner Trump and voted for him en masse. Jones was a middle of the road Democrat but Democratic he unmistakably was. The smear that he was weak on crime was patent nonsense as his career as a Prosecutor had shown. His landmark prosecution has been the conviction of members of the Klu Klux Klan who had been responsible for the murder of four black children. Even though the trials were twenty - five years after the event it was a gutsy move.
Jones displayed incredible political and managerial skills in snatching this landmark victory. It stands to reason that the Democratic Party infrastructure was non existent in Alabama. He went from door to door, over a half a million times in all, held meeting after meeting while exhibiting unbelievable empathy and tact. He put together an enthusiastic band of volunteers. By mutual agreement the central DNC played a low key role. From the latter’s point of view they were on a roll and they weren’t going to nationalize an election that they had little to no chance to win. From the Jone’s world he understood that his people would resent the condescending uppity Washington crowd telling them that they were “hicks”. They would take it from one of their own, African American Charles Barkley who opined, “At some stage we have to stop looking like idiots to the nation", but they did not need to be made to feel anymore insecure and trashed. So enough money was quietly provided to be able to meaningfully battle on and the rest is history. Obama and Biden contributed unannounced robocalls the night before the vote.
But this does not tell the story as to how a thirty percent State Wide Trump margin turned into a two percent victory and how Jones thread the needle.
AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS
The single most important block of voters for Jones, thirty percent, was the Black vote. To say that there was some resentment amongst that group is putting it mildly as many believed that the only time they were courted was at election time. Historically as with all groups their involvement in special elections was diminished. Also voter restrictive laws were on the books that made it more difficult to pull the lever. Jones however was the real deal and unostentatiously commandeered them into their highest percentage of the electorate’s participation ever. The vote was almost solid, ninety - five percent for the Democrat.
That alone could not be enough. Remember if the slogging Democrat did twenty five percentage points better than Hillary he would still lose. There had to be something else. How on earth were the tribe going to vote against one of their own, even though whacky Moore’s views were more extreme than theirs? At least he wasn’t in favor of abortion and would back Trump up in his Judge selection.
WHY JONES WON IN THE END,
As has been argued the official public position of the Republicans showed very little signs of cracking. Alabama Senator Shelby offered them one way out namely a write in of a “decent” Republican candidate. One point seven percent of the electorate, twenty - three thousand voters, followed his example. That turned out to be more or less the majority Jones triumphed by in an election of over one million three hundred votes cast. That might have been the final cherry to put the Democrat over the top but what ultimately did it, in addition to the African American vote, was the stay at home of a large number of the faithful. The vote for the Democrat, generally, was slightly more than in a Presidential year while Jones could only pull in about half of the Republican Presidential vote. So the stay away vote of the Republican Alabamians that made the big difference. Put another way in every county in Alabama the Democrats made gains against the Republicans.
So it was a host of factors that resulted in the miracle - The African American vote, the lack of enthusiasm of the Republican tribe, the massive discrepancy between the resumes, managerial skills and integrity of the candidates as well as the growing disenchantment with the Trump/Bannon leadership of the party. Surveys showed that the younger, more educated, suburban as well as the women voters had made perceptible moves to wiggle away from the tribalism.
This result, as have all the other elections to date, has far reaching implications for the Republican Party but that is a story for another day.
THE ULTIMATE IRONY
Alabama which has been the poster child for segregation and discrimination for centuries witnessed payback to those who to this day are still putting roadblocks in front of universal franchise. Ironically, it was principally the African American vote that peacefully buried Judge Roy Moore. He “Moore” than anyone else epitomized Alabama’s centuries of bigotry.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Perhaps Alabama heralds the beginning of the end. There is a long long way to go and to say the least Trump is a survivor.
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