Thursday, November 9, 2017

ZUMA, TRUMP, PUTIN and the SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION







In a world beset with corruption and self serving venal politicians who trash the rule of law, two  leaders, America’s Trump and South Africa’s Zuma, face crises, which have several common features, that threaten their survival. Both  have threatened democracy by, for example, the firing of public officials and being involved in unashamed malfeasance relating to their tax dealings. In a final twist of irony both Premiers have allowed themselves to be beholden to the Russia manipulator Putin.


While the details are unique to their settings, South Africa’s Jacob Zuma and America’s Donald Trump are facing life or death struggles. Both relish street fighting and will do whatever it takes to survive. Both have made a mockery of the foundations and struggles that established their commonwealths. Zuma has ridden roughshod over the hard fought for and negotiated non racial society and Trump has harkened back to the racist society that he claims “Made America Great”. 

In post Mandela South Africa, which was on the world stage for a century for epitomizing racism, the embattled President Zuma, who has seven hundred and eighty - three corruption charges hanging over him, has just been weakened with a best seller expose entitled, The President’s Keepers, authored by Jacques Pauw. The South African Sunday Times ran an extract of the chartbuster under the headline, “Gangster Republic”. (All this coming at a time when Zuma is striving desperately to have his candidate elected as the leader of the ANC). In America, the world’s oldest democracy and the past century’s defender of human rights, a Special Prosecutor has begun the process of investigating President Trump’s campaign team laying bare their illegal financial practices and collusion with Russia.

ZUMA AND PUTIN

What motivates Zuma’s latest actions and is central to Zuma’s woes is the fact that he has been thwarted from carrying through with a trillion rand deal with Putin, which he negotiated in 2014, to purchase eight nuclear reactors. Zuma was halted by two highly distinguished and respected Ministers’ of Finance both of whom he fired. The most recent of these actions precipitated a country wide uproar, (Blog: “Zuma Plunges South Africa Into A Financial Crisis”), with unprecedented protests in the streets and the downgrading of South African bonds to junk status. Zuma narrowly survived a vote of no confidence following the revolt against his axing of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.  Of the two hundred and forty - nine ANC Parliamentary legislators he only received one hundred and ninety - eight  votes - a stunning outcome bearing in mind how tight the ANC caucus has historically been.

After depleting a pile of political capital with the firings, Zuma hit an obstacle in terms of a Court ruling that stopped the Russian project in its tracks. (Just like The Donald he has to deal with an independent judiciary). The Court maintained that Zuma should have sought parliamentary approval for the deal. In addition the whole contract in every phase lacked the transparency that was needed for a constitutional democracy.  The court ruling further maintained that ESKOM the State’s Utility Company was wrongly given responsibility for the procurement. Zuma has not as yet had this ruling reversed. 

The South African Sunday Times have just reported that the premier reshuffled his cabinet immediately following a meeting of South African officials and a Russian delegation. Rumors are abounding that Putin is getting impatient for his payment for the reactors . Apparently it is not only the Guptas, Zuma’s most important patrons, that are only parties that can pick Zuma’s Cabinet Ministers. Trump’s inner circle, by the way, is awash with Russian connections.

Adding to all these massive existential crises, the South African President is now being hit with an expose that details in exquisite detail a corrupt regime where every department that matters has been taken over by his lieutenants. The Pauw hot seller also adds a ton of evidence of further financial Zuma malfeasance. The beleaguered Zuma has barely recovered from the Nkandla scandal involving him diverting State funds into his private home some of which he was forced to pay back by the courts.

 JACQUES PAUW EXPOSE - THE PRESIDENT’S KEEPERS

Coming at a time that Zuma’s poll numbers are at their lowest and when his toxic relationship with the Guptas is now a daily subject of discussion, one of South Africa’s most credible investigative journalists, Jacques Pauw, has produced a devastating critique of the corrupt cabal that constitutes his inner circle and the unbelievable criminal ends that he has stooped to in order to feather his own nest and to ensure his survival.

The book, The President's Keepers, became an overnight best seller hitting Amazon’s top ten list on the international market and selling out its first printing. When there was a fear that it might be banned a pirated copy went viral on the internet.

For those not in the know it detailed Zuma’s long standing history of having his hand in the till. Particularly significant in this regard was his failure to submit tax returns and pay income taxes for the first five years of his Presidency and to this day he has an outstanding debt to the South African Revenue services of sixty - three million rands, (About five million dollars).

The sorry long story of cronyism with its accompanying graft that has existed between Zuma, his family and the Guptas is elaborated on. In addition Pauw details the succession of underworld characters that are part of Zuma’s everyday life. There are also large gifts from Russian oligarchs coupled with the revelation that the President received a million rand a month as an employee of a private security company run by his close friend and benefactor Robert Moodley. It comes as no surprise that the company has contracts with the police and government agencies and that Moodley has been fingered in many bribery scandals.  

Central to the Pauw narrative is the infiltration of key Government Agencies by Zuma appointees with the squandering of money and cover up of crimes. Particularly notable examples where illegality is rife are the State Security Agency and the South African Revenue Service. This has allowed him and his co-conspirators to commit illegal activities literally to do as they wish without fear of prosecution.

RESPONSE TO “THE PRESIDENT’S KEEPERS”

The threats and the smearing followed almost immediately the book saw the light of day. Pauw’s anti - apartheid credentials are watertight so that he was in cahoots with apartheid operatives does not hold any water. He had exposed the fact that the Zulu based organization, Inkatha, was being backed by the apartheid security apparatus in their violence against the ANC as well as the fact that death squads had been used to eliminate anti apartheid opponents. 

Both the State Security Service and the South African Revenue Service are calling for the book to be banned.  Litigation is directed at The Sunday Times for it’s initial coverage and publishing an extract, the Publishers, Nationale Pers, as well as Pauw himself.  All these entities have made it quite clear that they were sticking to their guns and told the plaintiffs to bring it on. What has to be particularly worrying is the threat of a book ban as the second printing hit the shelves.  A promotion event at a leading bookseller had to be postponed as the electricity was allegedly sabotaged.

All this Government attention exponentially increases the exposure and impact of Pauw's contribution with influential individuals and groups rallying around in support.

IMPACT ON THE ANC PRESIDENCY

The ANC is to meet in December to elect its future leader as Zuma has to step down as a result of term limits. The election promises to be a grim battle and opponents of Zuma are hoping that the Pauw revelations will help in their unseating of the Zuma candidate. His nominee for the job is his former wife, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma. Cynically the Premier is playing the gender card with his ex maintaining that the ANC needs a woman at its head. Not surprisingly NDZ, as she is referred too, has shady backers including self confessed smugglers. NDZ’s woes go way back when she was Minister of Health where she dished out no bid contracts to cronies. She also held up the effective management of the AIDS epidemic with her backing of a quack remedy for its treatment.

She has the backing of the ANC Women’s League and the Youth League and the machinery and apparatus behind her former husband’s Presidency. Zuma has been around a long time and as his durability indicates and he retains substantial support and influence. NDZ represents Zuma’s life jacket in the event that an independent judiciary procedes with a prosecution. The financial sector are terrified at the thought of a NDZ Premiership and the Standard Bank issued a negative assessment on the impact her election might have.

NDZ’S opponent for leadership is Cyril Ramaphosa, the current Deputy President, and an open opponent of the Premier. Way back when, in the nineties, Ramaphosa, the former head of the Trade Union movement COSATU, was Mandela’s choice as his successor but he failed to get the nod from the ANC. He promptly went into business where he became a billionaire. He  returned to politics and was elected by the ANC conference as Zuma’s deputy. The Deputy Premier is no slouch at political infighting and has a proven machine that got him in this position in the first place. Ramaphosa has the backing of those who wish to return the ANC back to its original democratic path. This coalition includes the other two participants in the ANC coalition  - COSATU and the Communist Party as well as the old ANC guard that midwifed the ANC into power. 

This is going to be one helluva battle as there are 5000 eligible voters and it could just be a few hundred that decide. Should Ramaphosa not win the influential COSATU has threatened that it is going to walk out. If NDZ triumphs then South Africa has one last chance by voting the ANC out of power - a circumstance all but unthinkable a decade ago but now a distinct possibility.

Jacques Pauw’s book could not have come at a more propitious time and maybe it is not just a coincidence that it landed on the shelves just a short time before the historic ANC Convention.

AT THE END OF THE DAY - BACK TO PUTIN

A large measure of Zuma’s mess is as a result of his attempts to get the Russian nuclear deal through. His rapid slide downhill is directly related to the firing of his two Ministers of Finance who opposed it. To anyone in the American scene the Russian “interference” is screaming out loud. There is not so much focus on it in South Africa. Historically Russia is not regarded as the villain deluxe. They supported the ANC when the West didn’t. The Communist Party of South Africa is still very influential within the ANC as they supported them too, even though their electoral base is now vestigial.

One thing is for sure,“Believe Me”, Russia will intervene on behalf of the Zuma candidate and help anyway it can. Absurdly, they will not be on the same side as the local comrades. One only hope Ramaphosa is taking whatever precautions that he can,

It is interesting to note that what stands between the end of democracy in South Africa is the courts and the new constitution. The constitutional objective was to avoid a totalitarian state such as existed under apartheid. Zuma of the ANC, like Trump of the Republican Party consider free speech, an independent judiciary, financial transparency and the other trappings of Democracy as a hindrance. Like all totalitarians it is only useful to get them elected and then it becomes an obstacle to retain power.

The parallel between Trump and Zuma is uncanny. Both started their slippery slopes by firing officials that either could expose or hinder their agendas. They share the same view on tax returns although Trump’s still need to be exposed. Their Presidential activities result in an increase in their bank balances. Most significantly they despise the democratic process interfering into branches of government that are essential for the checks and balances for a democracy. Most bizarrely they are deeply influenced by Putin’s Russia.

One has to hand it to Putin who is trying desperately to put the USSR genie back in the bottle. With an economy the size of Italy, a couple of troll farms, an army of hackers and Wikileaks as his distribution operation, he is slowly rebuilding the Soviet empire and his own two hundred dollar billion fortune. However he has one  advantage the other two have not as yet - to quote Karl Marx out of context - he has lost the chains of democracy.



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