TRUMP CRIES “DO SOMETHING!” - AS MUELLER STRIKES

As the rubber got closer to the road the POTUS, even measured by his rock bottom standards, lost it. Donald Trump, whose seminal achievement is creating his own reality and getting everyone to go along with it, began to see it all slipping away with the news that Special Investigator Robert Mueller was about to indict some - one in the “hoax” of the Russian investigation. The treasonous silence of the Republicans, following the Mueller announcement infuriated the enraged President so he ended a blistering tweet storm with SCREAMING capitals  - “DO SOMETHING!” 

The President, while still waiting for the Mueller news doubled down with a tweet later in the morning, “All of this ‘Russia' talk right when the Republicans are making their big push for historic Tax Cuts and Reform. Is this coincidental. NOT!” 

PRESIDENT BREATHES A SIGN OF RELIEF FOR ABOUT AN HOUR 

The next morning the President really got exited when the charges against the two indicted men, Paul Manafort and Rick Gates were released and included naught about collusion with Russia. The fact that the docket charged conspiracy against America as well as failing to register as foreign agents for pro Russia interests and that Manafort was Trump’s campaign manager was apparently irrelevant. The President who has a selective reality had forgotten that he had forced Manafort’s resignation because of the Russian optics so it was all systems go for the Tweeter in Chief to counter attack:

“Sorry, but this was years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why not Crooked Hillary and the Dems the focus.????????” 

“ ….Also there is NO COLLUSION!”

An hour later Mueller unsealed the Guilty Plea of a former policy advisor to the Trump Campaign, George Papadopoulos which detailed Kremlin outreach in return for offering dirt on Hillary Clinton including thousands of e mails. His plea related to the fact that he had initially lied to the FBI about these events.There is a treasure trove of details in Papadopoulo’s statement outlining Russian collusion in the highest levels of the Trump Campaign. Although a Trump - Putin meeting was nixed the report was considered “Good Work” and there would be a follow ups with the Russians with lower level Trump surrogates so as not to focus attention on Trump. Interestingly Papadopoulos’s meetings with the Russians and their offer of dirt on Hillary was three months earlier than Donald J. Trump Jnr's high powered interlude that had the same bait - dirt on Hillary

Trump had previously introduced Papadopoulos as an “Excellent Guy” on his Foreign Advisory Committee so it was left to Sarah Huckabee Sanders to redefine his role as “extremely limited on a voluntary advisory board”. “No activity was ever done in an official capacity”, she added. She joined the refrain that this is all about Hillary.

Meanwhile behind the scenes it was reported that now there was a ranting angry Trump who wss directing most of his bile against Attorney General Sessions for recusing himself from the “Russian hoax”. He was even venting his spleen against his son in law, Jarred Kushner.

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION AND WHAT PRECEDED THE INDICTMENTS?

It is as good a time as any to have a Cliff Notes look as to how the Russian story got to this stage:

• At the time of the Presidential campaign it was common cause that Russia was highly compromised by economic sanctions. These were not only impacting the country’s economy they were hitting Putin and the oligarchs around him. Their billions of dollars had all been frozen and Hillary, as Obama’s Secretary of State, had made it clear that she was not about to change this arrangement. It was also well known that the Russian oligarchs were extremely close to Putin often acting as his emissaries.

• Trump throughout the campaign maintained that he wanted to improve the US relationship with Putin and Russia. Then he packed his campaign team with those who were sympathetic to the Russian cause. 

• Perhaps the most concrete manifestation of the Trump policy was he only made one change to the Republican Election Platform and that was to withhold arms from the West leaning Ukrainians, who were fighting the Russian backed East Ukrainians. 

• On our about the time all this was happening Trump through his lawyer Michael Cohen was negotiating with the Russians to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

• During the 2016 Presidential election the Russians hacked the Democratic Party and John Podesta the Chairman of the Clinton campaign. They stole over three thousand e mails. The Russian interventions did not pass unnoticed. It was announced by the Intelligence Agencies early on which lead to President Obama to warn President Putin to “cut it out” or face the consequences. Putin refused and Obama expelled thirty five Russian diplomats.

• As a result of the Obama expulsion Trump’s presumptive National Security Advisor Mike Flynn’s intervened with the Russians and the latter did not inexplicably retaliate against America. Presumably Flynn offered something in return.

• After the elections more and more revelations of Russian involvement became evident including interference in actual State elections, the extensive use of social media, in addition to the hacking.

• The conclusion of all the USA Intelligence Communities, even before Trump’s inauguration, was that the Russians had interfered in the US Presidential elections to favor the candidacy of Donald J. Trump - a fact that Trump to this day has denied as a hoax and a distraction by the Democrats “who should have won the election”. They further maintained that the Russian interference could have not occurred without collusion with Americans. 

• When the history of this investigation is written the name of the unconventional FBI Director James Comey will be pivotal. He was the first to announce to Congress that the FBI was investigating possible collusion of the Trump campaign in Russian interference in Donald's favor in the 2016 Presidential Election. After several failed clumsy attempts to influence the Director, Trump fired him subsequently admitting twice that it was because of the Russian affair. This lead Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to appoint Robert Mueller as a Special Counsel to investigate.

• Trump’s problems were exacerbated by the drip drip that followed in the six months following the Mueller appointment. The list of Russian contacts was growing. These had included his National Security Advisor Flynn who resigned as a result of lying about his liaisons and his Attorney General Sessions having to recuse himself from the Russian investigation after omitting to inform the Senate about his Russian contacts. It had been out there for sometime that Manafort owed a Russian oligarch “big” and it was reported that he had offered him "personal briefings" on the campaign.

• The giant gorilla in the room, throughout, was the Steele Dossier that had inter alia detailed Russian involvement and collusion with the Trump campaign. Research, originally paid for by Republicans and then by a Democratic law firm was prescient in forecasting what subsequently would occur. The dossier outlined the Russian expectations and one of its quid pro quo’s  - dirt on Hillary. A key demand was the subsequent change in the Republican platform on Ukraine. The author was regarded as reliable by the CIA and Steele has been interviewed by American Intelligence authorities since.

• News of the June 2016 meeting between, Manafort, Jarred Kushner and Donald Trump jnr. and several high-powered Russians where dirt on Hillary once again was offered upped the pressure on the Trump administration. The cover up as to the meetings contents, attributed to  the POTUS, did nothing to help his non existent credibility and strengthened the argument that he was obstructing justice. This whole scandal brought the case that was slowly building up against Trump and his team to a new level.

• Reports of the extent and sophistication of the Russian operation are still emerging.  They reached 160 million people on Facebook. Much of the targeting was on key Midwest areas that were responsible for Trump’s unexpected victory. In fact it was only seventy thousand votes in the key States that put Trump over the top. Google and Twitter were also platforms for the Russian fake news assault. The Democrats of the House of Representatives have released a ton of the Russian adverts that appeared on Facebook and they were highly sophisticated, targeted to specific groups while showing a knowledge of the issues in the election. One that struck Jay. H. Ell, ostensibly paid for by the US Veterans,  was a widow crying on a coffin with the American flag with the caption, “Hillary asks: What Difference Does It Make".

WHAT NOW?

The POTUS   

Trump for the moment has not done anything drastic. He has resorted to his comfort blanket, tweeting, the topic being the non credibility of Papadopoulos. He has two nuclear options still in his armamentarium - firing Mueller or pardoning all and sundry when the time comes. What is on the table is not enough to derail him. He is still safe in his alternate reality that this is all about Hillary. However as his initial response to Republicans indicates, “DO SOMETHING”, he senses that this is heading out of his control.

THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION

Mueller’s main objective is to prove or disprove collusion by the Trump campaign of the Russian intervention. He has served notice that he means business. If you cooperate there appears to be little or no legal jeopardy even if you initially lie. If you don’t he will dig up stuff that will put you away for decades. There is little doubt that he regards Manafort as key. The latter if his lawyer’s intervention is anything to go by is relying on Trump to pardon him. He has to be crazy. If the Nixon precedent is anything to go by Trump will dump his loyal followers in order to make his own survival more likely. Mueller increased the pressure on Manafort  the next day with a dump of more incriminating documents indicating Russian connections. 

Jay H. Ell also wonders what has happened to Flynn whose legal jeopardy was revealed long before Manafort. He however offered cooperation way back so it stands to reason that is what he is doing. 

The fact that Mueller has so many financial fraud experts on his staff has to give Trump the jitters. To obtain Trump’s taxes, which he probably already has, all he needs is the permission of a Judge. The post indictment document dump on Manafort has connections to laundering of vast sums of money, mentions Russian collaborators who are believed to be oligarchs. They also state that Manafort and Gates had staff in Kiev and Moscow. - the latter fact more than hinting at a Russian connection to the alleged treachery. The documentation indicates that the defendants’ taxes are part of the evidence. 

The irresistible inference from Mueller’s initial moves is that he has access to vast foreign bank documentation, tax returns and is following the money which connects to Russia. This investigation has gone a long way with several witnesses having testified to the FBI and or the Grand Jury, including Sam Clovis, the Co Chair of the Trump campaign, who is said to be cooperating with Mueller. He certainly could corroborate Papadopoulos and probably incriminate many more.

The more this progresses Mueller and his team have to be impressed, as the whole security establishment already are, of the danger to the American Democracy this assault represents. 

THE REPUBLICAN LEGISLATORS

The Republican Congressmen for the most part are in denial. Worse than their denial is their preoccupation with passing tax “reform” rather than putting the brakes on their unstable President. If they had any patriotism their number one priority would be to pass bipartisan legislation prohibiting the unstable OTUS from initiating a preemptive nuclear strike. There is little doubt when Trump’s approval rates drop further into the twenty percent levels they might wake up. Hopefully that will not be too late.