TRUMP’S ERSATZ TAX REFORM

As the TV blur of reruns of Trump repeatedly, monotonously and noisily promising tax cuts for the middle class play on, there is a feeling of disbelief at the crass duplicity of the Republican “Tax Reform” Bill.  In a milieu where the disparity between the rich and the poor is scarily humongous this legislation will not only not help but will exacerbate the chasm as the prospective legislation favors the top one percent of Americans over the rest. Thrown into the travesty is the threat this Legislation poses to Obamacare specifically and Healthcare generally. 

According to Ray Dalio, a hedge fund billionaire, in an expose entitled Principles, America faces its biggest haves versus have nots crisis in modern history.  One tenth of a percent of the richest have more wealth than ninety percent of the population combined. Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffet and Bill Gates have more assets than forty percent of American population.

It seems that once again what stands between the quickening march into a mean spirited oligarchy is the thin red line of a few Republicans who for whatever reasons could call a halt to this madness. What might help their decision making is the finding of political scientist, Chris Warshaw of Washington State University, that the Tax Bill is the second most unpopular piece of major legislation mooted in the past thirty years - the first being the Republicans attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare, which ironically they have made a part of this legislation.

TAX “REFORM” OBJECTIVES

The Bill itself, which represents tax cuts rather than reform, any coherent policy or economic philosophy, is designed for two principle objectives. These are to allow Trump and the Republicans to pass one piece of major legislation this year and as payback to the rich Republican donors at the expense of the poor and middle class. In addition it is punitive towards the States that voted against Trump and its patchwork construction is designed to prevent three Republicans from voting against it. For example, Lisa Murkowski from Alaska who has grave misgivings about the removal of the Obamacare mandate in the Bill, has a sweetener in it that makes it hard for her to vote against. For whatever reasons it is a top priority of the State of Alaska to develop more oil fields in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge which venture Obama nixed. The Bill provides the money for it.

WHAT’S IN TAX “REFORM”

The tax plans put out by the Republicans, aid and abet Trump in his destruction of every economic principle the GOP has stood for. The Bill will push up the deficit markedly. At present there is a struggle to keep its cost within a $1.5 trillion limit over ten years. Deficits, even a year ago, used to be considered blasphemy by the fiscal conservatives of the GOP. The bald face hypocrisy of the Republican legislators of both the Senate and House Bills is evident when it is recalled on this very issue they shut down Obama’s Government. 

Although Trump Trumpets night and day about tax cuts for all in the bill, in reality they are hopelessly lopsided in favor of the rich and powerful. For example, if you earn less than $36,500 a year you could save twenty cents a day and if you earn over $5,000,000 your savings are about a thousand dollars a day. Those in the middle class are in a quandary as to whether they are or are not going to be better off. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that ninety - two percent of the taxpayers will be paying the same or slightly less initially. In years to come only forty percent will be benefiting and many will be paying more because their tax cuts will be programmed out. The very rich’s tax cuts remain forever. The reason for this curtailment on the poor and middle class majority is to cut down the projected deficit that this Legislation will wreak. 

Besides the permanent personal tax breaks for the rich the estate tax will be done away with by 2024. At present the latter tax is on wealth above $5,500,000. As an interim measure it will be increased to $22,000,000 per couple. Overall the Office of the Tax Policy Center forecast that by 2027 half of the tax cuts will go to the top one percent of the population.

The Big Corporations benefit the most as taxes are decreased from thirty five percent to twenty percent. The indignation against this largesse stems from the fact they don’t pay thirty -five percent at present as there are several loopholes that they use. Not only are these escape clauses not being eradicated there are now even more deductions for the big businesses. Then the billions of corporate profits oversea can now be repatriated at the bargain basement price of twelve percent. The big let down is for small business, supposedly the raison d’être of the Republican Party's existence. There is a catchy stratagem called the “pass through” where the small business no longer has to pay the current thirty - five percent  corporate tax but their profit can be “passed through” to the owner who has a maximum tax rate of twenty - five percent. This is a wash because that is the rate which apparently most of them are paying now.

The inescapable conclusion is that this is all about payback for the big donors of the GOP with the poor and the ill losing out. The exercise is also being utilized to decrease healthcare costs in an attempt to recoup some of the revenue lost on the one percenters’ tax deductions 

TAX CUT CAN COST MILLIONS IN HEALTH CARE COVERAGE

The Tax “Reform” Bill contains the removal of compulsory registration under Obamacare. The non partisan Congressional Budget Office has calculated that this could save the treasury $338 billion over ten years. This “saved” money is as a result of the Administration not having to pay out subsidies to the approximately thirteen million Americans who might not sign on as they are younger and healthier. Removing this lower risk group from the pool will have the effect of insurance companies having to increase premiums for everyone. 

Another cynical move for the “workers”, that Trump purports to represent, is the removal of the tax break from those who spend more than ten percent of their income on health care, The Congressional Research Office reports that six percent of taxpayers, earning between $20,000 and $50,000 claimed, about an $8,000 tax deduction in 2014. The Association of American Retired Persons in 2015 maintain that about half the people who claimed the deduction earned less than $50,000 and a similar amount were over sixty - five years of age. The belief is that without this help many will just forego health care. To rub salt into the wounds of the battlers, they will no longer be able to deduct the interest paid on College loans. Another craven penny pinching measure will eliminate the small deduction previosly given to teachers who purchased school material, with their own money, for impoverished pupils.

The New York Times points out a further threat to the funding of those who are ill. The basis for this peril being that legislation that produces large deficits triggers mandatory spending cuts all round. Medicare stands to lose $25 billion. Speaker Paul Ryan has made it quite clear that both Medicare and Medicaid may be cut to reduce the deficit.

REASONS FOR THE UNDERLYING MADNESS

So why this mean madness? Why would the Republicans, who are facing an electoral disaster risk a final nail in their coffins? Why would they defy the economic purists and flaunt their cardinal rule not to increase the deficit? Why would they want to recoup some of the money they are lavishing on the fat cats by, inter alia, no longer allowing deductions of State taxes which may well ensure the loss of the House?  The answer is simple their big donors are demanding it. As the latter are the reason why there are large Republican majorities in the Federal and State legislatures they cannot be denied. This is the tiny constituency that they serve.

The benefactors that include the Koch Brothers, who poured nearly a billion dollars into the down ballot contests in 2016. The Koch group have a purist Libertarian outlook. They don’t believe in taxation or regulation - the free market unshackled. No “entitlement programs” either as, where necessary, private charities could provide assistance to those who legitimately need it. 

There are those who purport to really believe in what is referred to as trickle down or supply side economics. One such pundit is Gary Cohn, Trump’s Director of the National Economic Council and his Chief Economic Advisor. Cohn addressing a packed hall of business leaders claimed that their tax break would lead to an increase in wages. A skeptical chairman of the meeting asked all those who would do so to raise their hands and only three tentative arms responded. Cohn incredulously exploded, “Why aren’t all the other hands up”? The POTUS could explain, as he did on the trail, when detailing why he paid as little tax as he could. He elucidated that he had a responsibility to his companies and his family. Well the Big Corporations have a similar commitment to their shareholders and themselves. They will either increase dividends and or buy back shares to push their share prices up.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

So the great communicator, who connected with the blue collar workers and the miners, has not opened the mines nor provided high paying manufacturing jobs. There has been no major infrastructure expenditure that might have helped their plight. As for his stance on trade, it has produced no positive results and all it has done has weakened America’s position in the world. Rather than, as he promised, penalize the companies who outsourced their production, he has given them tax breaks with nothing being offered in return. The non college educated voters of the rust belt are not interested whether Trump has a legislative win or not. Rather the despondent citizens are awaiting the Great America Trump promised them.

Already Republican suburbia has sent the President a message. It remains to be seen whether the blue collar workers who put him over the top in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will join them. 

As to the Bill’s ultimate fate it has a long way to go. The House and Senate versions are different. No one knows how the thin redline of Republican Senate doubters will finally react whatever they may say now. Once again the focus is on Senators Corker, Flake, Sasse, Murkowski, Collins, Johnson and McCain. Johnson has already stated he will vote against because big business rather than small business has got all the breaks. Trump has goaded Senator Flake, who has fiscal doubts, to vote against by sneeringly claiming that he will. Bob Corker has stated that he was anti any bill that increased the deficit by one cent.  A doubting McCain has opined that tax cuts favoring the wealthy push the deficit up. Murskowski and Collins both are unhappy about the linking of healthcare cuts with the tax bill. The temptation to naysay the Bill by these seven has to be great, especially in view of the polls which show a wide margin against.

All this bizarre back and forth while the Mueller investigation grinds on. With each day the revelations put Trump and his team further in jeopardy. The implications of this probe make the POTUS’S problems about tax “Reform” pale into oblivion.

MOORE, CLINTON, TRUMP, SEX, POWER, POLITICS, AND HYPOCRISY

The past few months have seen a gush, akin to when an abscess is lanced, of accusations of sexual molestation, assault, criminal genital exposure and rape, by powerful men in the entertainment and political fields. Noteworthy are the disgusting revelations of sexual criminal infractions by Harvey Weinstein and Bill Cosby, both of whom were incriminated by over forty women. Then there were the sickening descriptions of sexual abuse of hundreds of minors for decades, by a US Olympic doctor. It was in this unsterile environment that a detailed complaint in the Washington Post was published accusing the Republican candidate, Judge Roy Moore, for the vacant Senate seat in Alabama, of sexually molesting a fourteen year old young girl by touching her genitals and pushing his erect penis against her, albeit thirty - eight years ago. The Post expose included reports from three other teenagers on whom Moore had forced himself. All in all the reporters interviewed thirty witnesses to corroborate their story. 

An added allegation, where a sexual assault was graphically described by a complainant who claimed that it took place when she was sixteen, painted a darker and darker picture of the Judge. Also surfacing now is the fact that he was banned from the town shopping mall as there had been complaints that he was harassing teenagers for dates. 

The initial report unleashed a torrent of revulsion as well as an vigorous defense of Moore. Particularly revealing were the responses of Moore’s supporters which were mainly couched in political overtones. This championing of Moore was not particularly surprising in the light of the fact that the Republican Candidate for President of the United States confessed that he grabbed women’s pussies, which confession did no damage to his electoral chances. In addition several women detailed sexual molestation by Trump. For all that Trump was elected President with a majority of white women voting for him. Moore a devout Evangelical Christian was even more entitled to support in these circumstances.

HOW ARE THE COMPLAINTS OF SEXUAL VIOLATIONS, HARASSMENT AND INAPPROPRIATE BEHAVIOR VIEWED?

It is fair to say the cultural and moral climate relating to the treatment of women has been changed for the better. The “Me Too” movement of women victims has achieved a number of important objectives - a public airing of a criminal problem that appears endemic, empowerment of the victims and some legal actions and education of the problem. In addition several of those who have committed criminal activities have been removed from their prominent positions. However, Ms. Corfman's graphic and detailed description has not been universally acknowledged as criminal activity.  Nor do the majority of Mr. Moore’s backers believe there is any truth or merit in her accusations. Several others believe whether the claims are true or not they do not disqualify Moore from being a representative of the State of Alabama. 

Often the issue of sexual molestation in all its forms is not regarded as a crime or a disgrace but rather a political issue as illustrated by the response in Alabama.  Anita Hill, in the wake of the recent tsunami of sexual harassment and assault revelations, cynically maintained that condemnation of the recent violators had nothing to do with the “crime” but, rather, that the victims were important enough to have notice taken of them. What Ms. Hill was recognizing was that there were now very powerful women too. Nevertheless she was only partially correct. More important is the role politics plays in the judgment of the alleged malfeasance. It is not only politics with a capital P but all political activity within corporations and institutions, including decisions made where money could be lost by diminished ratings and advertising as in the cases of Louis C K and Kevin Spacey. There have also been a host of “settlements” by celebrities notably from Fox News luminaries, the details of which are under seal.

What materially aids those who wish to either condemn or support an allegation, whether it be on the spectrum between rape or an isolated perceived offensive remark or non sexual touch, is the lumping of any and every one of these behaviors and all those inbetween as “inappropriate” or loosely as “sexual harassment”. Ms. Corfman’s complaints are more often than not referred to as “inappropriate acts” when they are criminal assaults. The term sexual harassment is also loosely bandied about when it is a concept defined by law. All this sloppy discourse makes it more easy to politicize the response to a complaint which, regardless of the actual allegations, is invariably labelled as “inappropriate” behavior or “sexual harassment”.  Using these generic terms can also result in libeling individuals and false accusations. So it is in everyone’s interest to clearly lay out exactly what the victim details and define it according to law. Needless to say if there is going to be a legal or any other sanction the accused is entitiled to due process.

 MOORE AND HIS DEFENSE.

Roy Moore isn’t any old Southern evangelist, he is their poster child. He has railed against immorality for decades. As Chief Justice of Alabama he refused a Supreme Court injunction to remove a sculpture of the Ten Commandments which violated the separation of Church and State. Rather than comply with the order he had to be ejected from the bench. His political response to the Corfman allegation was illustrative of the hypocritical attitude of a political figure, who has ironically been regarded as the arbiter of public morality in Alabama for decades. Moore utilized the “attack”, which he characterized as “spiritual warfare”, to appeal for funds. He argued that, “The forces of evil will lie, cheat, steal even inflict physical harm if they believe it will silence and shut up Christian conservatives like you and me. Their goal is to frustrate and slow our campaign’s progress to help the Obama - Clinton Machine to silence our conservative message. That’s why I must be able to count on the help of God-fearing conservatives like you to stand with me at this critical moment”. Moore is in this for the duration. 

 Just in case Moore hadn’t made it clear his chief backer Stephen Bannon compared the Washington Post report to the same fake news as the release of Trump’s “Access Hollywood” tape and hinted that there was a conspiracy at work. He ranted that, “The Bezos Amazon Washington Post that dropped the dime on Donald Trump is the same Bezos Amazon Washington Post that dropped the dime on Judge Roy Moore. Now is that coincidence?…. the intention was to attack and destroy Trump”.

While the national Republican Party, reeling from its election reverses in a number of States across the country distanced themselves from Moore and eventually called for him to “step aside”, the Alabama Republican response was unequivocally supportive. In a report by Eric Levenson, of CNN, the comments of over a dozen community leaders explained why they were still behind him. Mike Allison, Pastor of the Methodist Church, claimed that he was a man of integrity - “I don’t believe these allegations. There is a lot of fake news going around these days”. Dottie Finch claimed even if the allegations were true she would stand behind Moore. She argued, “And if it has happened, the good Lord has forgiven him….”

Moore’s campaign chairman echoed the political mantra, “Judge Roy Moore is winning with a double - digit lead. So it is no surprise, with just over four weeks remaining in the race for the US Senate with national implications, that the Democratic Party and the country’s most liberal newspaper would up with a fabrication of this kind". Jim Zeigler, the State auditor, gave the defense a biblical twist - “..take Joseph and Mary. Mary was a teenager and Joseph was an adult carpenter. They became the parents of Jesus. There’s just nothing immoral or illegal here. Maybe just a little bit unusual”. Then there was the lapse of time that had passed which was frequently utilized to delegitimize the plaintiffs. The  Marion County Leader of the GOP, exemplified the latter, “It happened forty years ago. I don’t see the relevance of it now.” The Bibi County Chairman summed up the message, “I would vote for Judge Moore because I wouldn’t want to vote for Doug. I am not saying I support what he did”.

THE POLITICAL OUTCOME OF ALABAMA’S MOORE

The Republican Party are in deep trouble at the moment and this is a lose -  lose situation. Without Moore they have only fifty - one Senate votes making the passing of any legislation even more difficult. However, Moore may be able to play in the deep South but he and his brand, even without the criminal sexual allegations, are toxic to the rest of the country. 

There is another issue that Moore is central to - the battle for control of the Republican Party between Bannon, who backed him in the GOP Primary, and McConnell the leader in the Senate, who opposed him. Both Moore and Bannon have vowed McConnell will be axed as head of the Senate GOP. It is thus not surprising that McConnell, changed his mind from asking for Moore’s withdrawal only if “the allegations were true” to demand that Moore “step aside” as he, McConnell “believes the women”. The transition from a legal to a political interpretation may indicate that McConnell is ready to take Bannon on. An issue as gross as sexual assault of young girls is one on which he should have the support of the majority of the Republican Party as it has caused revulsion across the nation. The latest sordid story of assault makes the imperative to get shot of Moore even more urgent.

So if Moore gets elected then he will face a Senate ethics investigation and McConnell says he will be expelled. As matters stand the odds are for a Moore victory as Trump won Alabama by twenty - eight percent. It was expected that the result what be far closer even before the raucous, some pundits even giving the Democrat a shot. The last time the Judge was up for election for Chief Justice he only narrowly beat the Democratic contender. 

Interestingly, the Democrats don’t believe there is much to be gained by getting heavily involved with their candidate thereby turning Alabama into a national referendum. Fresh of their recent eye popping electoral successes the conventional wisdom is that it would be wisest to leave be and allow the Alabama tussle to be what it is - yet another battle in the war for the heart and soul of the GOP and if they win its a big bonus.

The Democrats, in the mean time, will just sit back trying to conceal their delight. However, if they want to keep the momentum going they have to get sane proposals on the deck otherwise their ascendency might be short-lived as the electorate are currently in revolt with “the swamp” and want honest opaque governance.

PAUSE FOR THOUGHT

For reasons that are obvious Trump will not face an ethical investigation in the Senate. 

Some of the complainants in volunteering that they voted for Trump were unconsciously acknowledging the politics involved needed to bolster their credibility. More of a paradox is the unconscious mechanisms at work that allowed for victims of sexual molestation to vote for a President who was a serial self confessed sexual assaulter.

The biggest loser in this saga is,Trump. Besides the refocus on his own past, whatever he does he will see an erosion of support. If he doesn't call for Moore to "stand aside" the steady peeling off of his swing votes will accelerate. If he joins McConnell, a.k.a. "the swamp", he will see the first melting of his, up till now, loyal base.

PAUSE FOR AN AFTERTHOUGHT - CLINTON, TRUMP, POLITICS AND CULPABILITY

Suppose Robert Mueller could find nothing related to Trump’s collusion with Russia, his finances or obstruction of justice but he hears that one of the complainants against Trump in unrelated sexual harassment litigation relating to the “Access Hollywood” tape has proof of her charge. He obtains the depositions in that litigation.

 Then Mueller has to finally depose Trump to wrap his own investigation up. He confronts Trump with the evidence. Needless to say, under oath Trump denies all the harassment allegations and the corroboratory evidence that Mueller had obtained from the depositions of other witnesses. Trump has now lied under oath and obstructed justice albeit in an unrelated case of alleged sexual harassment and that is grounds for impeachment! Off the charts? Not at all that is exactly what happened to Bill Clinton. Ken Starr, who was appointed by a panel of Republican judges, spent eighty million dollars to “get the goods” on Clinton relating to the Whitewater Property Land Deals and whether he and Hillary murdered Vince Foster only to find naught. However in a deposition in the unrelated Paula Jones sexual harassment case Clinton lied that he did not have a consensual sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky thereby obstructing justice. Starr successfully presented his referral to a grateful Republican Congress for impeachment.

What is the difference between then and now? Why is the impeachment of Trump not a certainty when there is, for starters, a prima facie case for obstruction of justice on what the public knows alone?  Without going into too much detail, does the fact that both Legislative bodies in Clinton’s Presidency were from the opposing Republican party while in Trump’s Presidency the Legislative Bodies are from Trump’s party, have anything to do with the outcome? Jay H. Ell believes so.

It is interesting to note that seventy percent of Evangelicals maintained while Clinton was President, that failings in one’s personal life disqualified him to be President. In a similar survey of Evangelicals conducted in relation to a Trump Presidency, the numbers were reversed and seventy percent now believed that one’s personal failings did not disqualify the candidate from being President.

ZUMA, TRUMP, PUTIN and the SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

In a world beset with corruption and self serving venal politicians who trash the rule of law, two  leaders, America’s Trump and South Africa’s Zuma, face crises, which have several common features, that threaten their survival. Both  have threatened democracy by, for example, the firing of public officials and being involved in unashamed malfeasance relating to their tax dealings. In a final twist of irony both Premiers have allowed themselves to be beholden to the Russia manipulator Putin.

While the details are unique to their settings, South Africa’s Jacob Zuma and America’s Donald Trump are facing life or death struggles. Both relish street fighting and will do whatever it takes to survive. Both have made a mockery of the foundations and struggles that established their commonwealths. Zuma has ridden roughshod over the hard fought for and negotiated non racial society and Trump has harkened back to the racist society that he claims “Made America Great”. 

In post Mandela South Africa, which was on the world stage for a century for epitomizing racism, the embattled President Zuma, who has seven hundred and eighty - three corruption charges hanging over him, has just been weakened with a best seller expose entitled, The President’s Keepers, authored by Jacques Pauw. The South African Sunday Times ran an extract of the chartbuster under the headline, “Gangster Republic”. (All this coming at a time when Zuma is striving desperately to have his candidate elected as the leader of the ANC). In America, the world’s oldest democracy and the past century’s defender of human rights, a Special Prosecutor has begun the process of investigating President Trump’s campaign team laying bare their illegal financial practices and collusion with Russia.

ZUMA AND PUTIN

What motivates Zuma’s latest actions and is central to Zuma’s woes is the fact that he has been thwarted from carrying through with a trillion rand deal with Putin, which he negotiated in 2014, to purchase eight nuclear reactors. Zuma was halted by two highly distinguished and respected Ministers’ of Finance both of whom he fired. The most recent of these actions precipitated a country wide uproar, (Blog: “Zuma Plunges South Africa Into A Financial Crisis”), with unprecedented protests in the streets and the downgrading of South African bonds to junk status. Zuma narrowly survived a vote of no confidence following the revolt against his axing of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.  Of the two hundred and forty - nine ANC Parliamentary legislators he only received one hundred and ninety - eight  votes - a stunning outcome bearing in mind how tight the ANC caucus has historically been.

After depleting a pile of political capital with the firings, Zuma hit an obstacle in terms of a Court ruling that stopped the Russian project in its tracks. (Just like The Donald he has to deal with an independent judiciary). The Court maintained that Zuma should have sought parliamentary approval for the deal. In addition the whole contract in every phase lacked the transparency that was needed for a constitutional democracy.  The court ruling further maintained that ESKOM the State’s Utility Company was wrongly given responsibility for the procurement. Zuma has not as yet had this ruling reversed. 

The South African Sunday Times have just reported that the premier reshuffled his cabinet immediately following a meeting of South African officials and a Russian delegation. Rumors are abounding that Putin is getting impatient for his payment for the reactors . Apparently it is not only the Guptas, Zuma’s most important patrons, that are only parties that can pick Zuma’s Cabinet Ministers. Trump’s inner circle, by the way, is awash with Russian connections.

Adding to all these massive existential crises, the South African President is now being hit with an expose that details in exquisite detail a corrupt regime where every department that matters has been taken over by his lieutenants. The Pauw hot seller also adds a ton of evidence of further financial Zuma malfeasance. The beleaguered Zuma has barely recovered from the Nkandla scandal involving him diverting State funds into his private home some of which he was forced to pay back by the courts.

 JACQUES PAUW EXPOSE - THE PRESIDENT’S KEEPERS

Coming at a time that Zuma’s poll numbers are at their lowest and when his toxic relationship with the Guptas is now a daily subject of discussion, one of South Africa’s most credible investigative journalists, Jacques Pauw, has produced a devastating critique of the corrupt cabal that constitutes his inner circle and the unbelievable criminal ends that he has stooped to in order to feather his own nest and to ensure his survival.

The book, The President's Keepers, became an overnight best seller hitting Amazon’s top ten list on the international market and selling out its first printing. When there was a fear that it might be banned a pirated copy went viral on the internet.

For those not in the know it detailed Zuma’s long standing history of having his hand in the till. Particularly significant in this regard was his failure to submit tax returns and pay income taxes for the first five years of his Presidency and to this day he has an outstanding debt to the South African Revenue services of sixty - three million rands, (About five million dollars).

The sorry long story of cronyism with its accompanying graft that has existed between Zuma, his family and the Guptas is elaborated on. In addition Pauw details the succession of underworld characters that are part of Zuma’s everyday life. There are also large gifts from Russian oligarchs coupled with the revelation that the President received a million rand a month as an employee of a private security company run by his close friend and benefactor Robert Moodley. It comes as no surprise that the company has contracts with the police and government agencies and that Moodley has been fingered in many bribery scandals.  

Central to the Pauw narrative is the infiltration of key Government Agencies by Zuma appointees with the squandering of money and cover up of crimes. Particularly notable examples where illegality is rife are the State Security Agency and the South African Revenue Service. This has allowed him and his co-conspirators to commit illegal activities literally to do as they wish without fear of prosecution.

RESPONSE TO “THE PRESIDENT’S KEEPERS”

The threats and the smearing followed almost immediately the book saw the light of day. Pauw’s anti - apartheid credentials are watertight so that he was in cahoots with apartheid operatives does not hold any water. He had exposed the fact that the Zulu based organization, Inkatha, was being backed by the apartheid security apparatus in their violence against the ANC as well as the fact that death squads had been used to eliminate anti apartheid opponents. 

Both the State Security Service and the South African Revenue Service are calling for the book to be banned.  Litigation is directed at The Sunday Times for it’s initial coverage and publishing an extract, the Publishers, Nationale Pers, as well as Pauw himself.  All these entities have made it quite clear that they were sticking to their guns and told the plaintiffs to bring it on. What has to be particularly worrying is the threat of a book ban as the second printing hit the shelves.  A promotion event at a leading bookseller had to be postponed as the electricity was allegedly sabotaged.

All this Government attention exponentially increases the exposure and impact of Pauw's contribution with influential individuals and groups rallying around in support.

IMPACT ON THE ANC PRESIDENCY

The ANC is to meet in December to elect its future leader as Zuma has to step down as a result of term limits. The election promises to be a grim battle and opponents of Zuma are hoping that the Pauw revelations will help in their unseating of the Zuma candidate. His nominee for the job is his former wife, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma. Cynically the Premier is playing the gender card with his ex maintaining that the ANC needs a woman at its head. Not surprisingly NDZ, as she is referred too, has shady backers including self confessed smugglers. NDZ’s woes go way back when she was Minister of Health where she dished out no bid contracts to cronies. She also held up the effective management of the AIDS epidemic with her backing of a quack remedy for its treatment.

She has the backing of the ANC Women’s League and the Youth League and the machinery and apparatus behind her former husband’s Presidency. Zuma has been around a long time and as his durability indicates and he retains substantial support and influence. NDZ represents Zuma’s life jacket in the event that an independent judiciary procedes with a prosecution. The financial sector are terrified at the thought of a NDZ Premiership and the Standard Bank issued a negative assessment on the impact her election might have.

NDZ’S opponent for leadership is Cyril Ramaphosa, the current Deputy President, and an open opponent of the Premier. Way back when, in the nineties, Ramaphosa, the former head of the Trade Union movement COSATU, was Mandela’s choice as his successor but he failed to get the nod from the ANC. He promptly went into business where he became a billionaire. He  returned to politics and was elected by the ANC conference as Zuma’s deputy. The Deputy Premier is no slouch at political infighting and has a proven machine that got him in this position in the first place. Ramaphosa has the backing of those who wish to return the ANC back to its original democratic path. This coalition includes the other two participants in the ANC coalition  - COSATU and the Communist Party as well as the old ANC guard that midwifed the ANC into power. 

This is going to be one helluva battle as there are 5000 eligible voters and it could just be a few hundred that decide. Should Ramaphosa not win the influential COSATU has threatened that it is going to walk out. If NDZ triumphs then South Africa has one last chance by voting the ANC out of power - a circumstance all but unthinkable a decade ago but now a distinct possibility.

Jacques Pauw’s book could not have come at a more propitious time and maybe it is not just a coincidence that it landed on the shelves just a short time before the historic ANC Convention.

AT THE END OF THE DAY - BACK TO PUTIN

A large measure of Zuma’s mess is as a result of his attempts to get the Russian nuclear deal through. His rapid slide downhill is directly related to the firing of his two Ministers of Finance who opposed it. To anyone in the American scene the Russian “interference” is screaming out loud. There is not so much focus on it in South Africa. Historically Russia is not regarded as the villain deluxe. They supported the ANC when the West didn’t. The Communist Party of South Africa is still very influential within the ANC as they supported them too, even though their electoral base is now vestigial.

One thing is for sure,“Believe Me”, Russia will intervene on behalf of the Zuma candidate and help anyway it can. Absurdly, they will not be on the same side as the local comrades. One only hope Ramaphosa is taking whatever precautions that he can,

It is interesting to note that what stands between the end of democracy in South Africa is the courts and the new constitution. The constitutional objective was to avoid a totalitarian state such as existed under apartheid. Zuma of the ANC, like Trump of the Republican Party consider free speech, an independent judiciary, financial transparency and the other trappings of Democracy as a hindrance. Like all totalitarians it is only useful to get them elected and then it becomes an obstacle to retain power.

The parallel between Trump and Zuma is uncanny. Both started their slippery slopes by firing officials that either could expose or hinder their agendas. They share the same view on tax returns although Trump’s still need to be exposed. Their Presidential activities result in an increase in their bank balances. Most significantly they despise the democratic process interfering into branches of government that are essential for the checks and balances for a democracy. Most bizarrely they are deeply influenced by Putin’s Russia.

One has to hand it to Putin who is trying desperately to put the USSR genie back in the bottle. With an economy the size of Italy, a couple of troll farms, an army of hackers and Wikileaks as his distribution operation, he is slowly rebuilding the Soviet empire and his own two hundred dollar billion fortune. However he has one  advantage the other two have not as yet - to quote Karl Marx out of context - he has lost the chains of democracy.

TRUMP CRIES “DO SOMETHING!” - AS MUELLER STRIKES

As the rubber got closer to the road the POTUS, even measured by his rock bottom standards, lost it. Donald Trump, whose seminal achievement is creating his own reality and getting everyone to go along with it, began to see it all slipping away with the news that Special Investigator Robert Mueller was about to indict some - one in the “hoax” of the Russian investigation. The treasonous silence of the Republicans, following the Mueller announcement infuriated the enraged President so he ended a blistering tweet storm with SCREAMING capitals  - “DO SOMETHING!” 

The President, while still waiting for the Mueller news doubled down with a tweet later in the morning, “All of this ‘Russia' talk right when the Republicans are making their big push for historic Tax Cuts and Reform. Is this coincidental. NOT!” 

PRESIDENT BREATHES A SIGN OF RELIEF FOR ABOUT AN HOUR 

The next morning the President really got exited when the charges against the two indicted men, Paul Manafort and Rick Gates were released and included naught about collusion with Russia. The fact that the docket charged conspiracy against America as well as failing to register as foreign agents for pro Russia interests and that Manafort was Trump’s campaign manager was apparently irrelevant. The President who has a selective reality had forgotten that he had forced Manafort’s resignation because of the Russian optics so it was all systems go for the Tweeter in Chief to counter attack:

“Sorry, but this was years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why not Crooked Hillary and the Dems the focus.????????” 

“ ….Also there is NO COLLUSION!”

An hour later Mueller unsealed the Guilty Plea of a former policy advisor to the Trump Campaign, George Papadopoulos which detailed Kremlin outreach in return for offering dirt on Hillary Clinton including thousands of e mails. His plea related to the fact that he had initially lied to the FBI about these events.There is a treasure trove of details in Papadopoulo’s statement outlining Russian collusion in the highest levels of the Trump Campaign. Although a Trump - Putin meeting was nixed the report was considered “Good Work” and there would be a follow ups with the Russians with lower level Trump surrogates so as not to focus attention on Trump. Interestingly Papadopoulos’s meetings with the Russians and their offer of dirt on Hillary was three months earlier than Donald J. Trump Jnr's high powered interlude that had the same bait - dirt on Hillary

Trump had previously introduced Papadopoulos as an “Excellent Guy” on his Foreign Advisory Committee so it was left to Sarah Huckabee Sanders to redefine his role as “extremely limited on a voluntary advisory board”. “No activity was ever done in an official capacity”, she added. She joined the refrain that this is all about Hillary.

Meanwhile behind the scenes it was reported that now there was a ranting angry Trump who wss directing most of his bile against Attorney General Sessions for recusing himself from the “Russian hoax”. He was even venting his spleen against his son in law, Jarred Kushner.

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION AND WHAT PRECEDED THE INDICTMENTS?

It is as good a time as any to have a Cliff Notes look as to how the Russian story got to this stage:

• At the time of the Presidential campaign it was common cause that Russia was highly compromised by economic sanctions. These were not only impacting the country’s economy they were hitting Putin and the oligarchs around him. Their billions of dollars had all been frozen and Hillary, as Obama’s Secretary of State, had made it clear that she was not about to change this arrangement. It was also well known that the Russian oligarchs were extremely close to Putin often acting as his emissaries.

• Trump throughout the campaign maintained that he wanted to improve the US relationship with Putin and Russia. Then he packed his campaign team with those who were sympathetic to the Russian cause. 

• Perhaps the most concrete manifestation of the Trump policy was he only made one change to the Republican Election Platform and that was to withhold arms from the West leaning Ukrainians, who were fighting the Russian backed East Ukrainians. 

• On our about the time all this was happening Trump through his lawyer Michael Cohen was negotiating with the Russians to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

• During the 2016 Presidential election the Russians hacked the Democratic Party and John Podesta the Chairman of the Clinton campaign. They stole over three thousand e mails. The Russian interventions did not pass unnoticed. It was announced by the Intelligence Agencies early on which lead to President Obama to warn President Putin to “cut it out” or face the consequences. Putin refused and Obama expelled thirty five Russian diplomats.

• As a result of the Obama expulsion Trump’s presumptive National Security Advisor Mike Flynn’s intervened with the Russians and the latter did not inexplicably retaliate against America. Presumably Flynn offered something in return.

• After the elections more and more revelations of Russian involvement became evident including interference in actual State elections, the extensive use of social media, in addition to the hacking.

• The conclusion of all the USA Intelligence Communities, even before Trump’s inauguration, was that the Russians had interfered in the US Presidential elections to favor the candidacy of Donald J. Trump - a fact that Trump to this day has denied as a hoax and a distraction by the Democrats “who should have won the election”. They further maintained that the Russian interference could have not occurred without collusion with Americans. 

• When the history of this investigation is written the name of the unconventional FBI Director James Comey will be pivotal. He was the first to announce to Congress that the FBI was investigating possible collusion of the Trump campaign in Russian interference in Donald's favor in the 2016 Presidential Election. After several failed clumsy attempts to influence the Director, Trump fired him subsequently admitting twice that it was because of the Russian affair. This lead Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to appoint Robert Mueller as a Special Counsel to investigate.

• Trump’s problems were exacerbated by the drip drip that followed in the six months following the Mueller appointment. The list of Russian contacts was growing. These had included his National Security Advisor Flynn who resigned as a result of lying about his liaisons and his Attorney General Sessions having to recuse himself from the Russian investigation after omitting to inform the Senate about his Russian contacts. It had been out there for sometime that Manafort owed a Russian oligarch “big” and it was reported that he had offered him "personal briefings" on the campaign.

• The giant gorilla in the room, throughout, was the Steele Dossier that had inter alia detailed Russian involvement and collusion with the Trump campaign. Research, originally paid for by Republicans and then by a Democratic law firm was prescient in forecasting what subsequently would occur. The dossier outlined the Russian expectations and one of its quid pro quo’s  - dirt on Hillary. A key demand was the subsequent change in the Republican platform on Ukraine. The author was regarded as reliable by the CIA and Steele has been interviewed by American Intelligence authorities since.

• News of the June 2016 meeting between, Manafort, Jarred Kushner and Donald Trump jnr. and several high-powered Russians where dirt on Hillary once again was offered upped the pressure on the Trump administration. The cover up as to the meetings contents, attributed to  the POTUS, did nothing to help his non existent credibility and strengthened the argument that he was obstructing justice. This whole scandal brought the case that was slowly building up against Trump and his team to a new level.

• Reports of the extent and sophistication of the Russian operation are still emerging.  They reached 160 million people on Facebook. Much of the targeting was on key Midwest areas that were responsible for Trump’s unexpected victory. In fact it was only seventy thousand votes in the key States that put Trump over the top. Google and Twitter were also platforms for the Russian fake news assault. The Democrats of the House of Representatives have released a ton of the Russian adverts that appeared on Facebook and they were highly sophisticated, targeted to specific groups while showing a knowledge of the issues in the election. One that struck Jay. H. Ell, ostensibly paid for by the US Veterans,  was a widow crying on a coffin with the American flag with the caption, “Hillary asks: What Difference Does It Make".

WHAT NOW?

The POTUS   

Trump for the moment has not done anything drastic. He has resorted to his comfort blanket, tweeting, the topic being the non credibility of Papadopoulos. He has two nuclear options still in his armamentarium - firing Mueller or pardoning all and sundry when the time comes. What is on the table is not enough to derail him. He is still safe in his alternate reality that this is all about Hillary. However as his initial response to Republicans indicates, “DO SOMETHING”, he senses that this is heading out of his control.

THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION

Mueller’s main objective is to prove or disprove collusion by the Trump campaign of the Russian intervention. He has served notice that he means business. If you cooperate there appears to be little or no legal jeopardy even if you initially lie. If you don’t he will dig up stuff that will put you away for decades. There is little doubt that he regards Manafort as key. The latter if his lawyer’s intervention is anything to go by is relying on Trump to pardon him. He has to be crazy. If the Nixon precedent is anything to go by Trump will dump his loyal followers in order to make his own survival more likely. Mueller increased the pressure on Manafort  the next day with a dump of more incriminating documents indicating Russian connections. 

Jay H. Ell also wonders what has happened to Flynn whose legal jeopardy was revealed long before Manafort. He however offered cooperation way back so it stands to reason that is what he is doing. 

The fact that Mueller has so many financial fraud experts on his staff has to give Trump the jitters. To obtain Trump’s taxes, which he probably already has, all he needs is the permission of a Judge. The post indictment document dump on Manafort has connections to laundering of vast sums of money, mentions Russian collaborators who are believed to be oligarchs. They also state that Manafort and Gates had staff in Kiev and Moscow. - the latter fact more than hinting at a Russian connection to the alleged treachery. The documentation indicates that the defendants’ taxes are part of the evidence. 

The irresistible inference from Mueller’s initial moves is that he has access to vast foreign bank documentation, tax returns and is following the money which connects to Russia. This investigation has gone a long way with several witnesses having testified to the FBI and or the Grand Jury, including Sam Clovis, the Co Chair of the Trump campaign, who is said to be cooperating with Mueller. He certainly could corroborate Papadopoulos and probably incriminate many more.

The more this progresses Mueller and his team have to be impressed, as the whole security establishment already are, of the danger to the American Democracy this assault represents. 

THE REPUBLICAN LEGISLATORS

The Republican Congressmen for the most part are in denial. Worse than their denial is their preoccupation with passing tax “reform” rather than putting the brakes on their unstable President. If they had any patriotism their number one priority would be to pass bipartisan legislation prohibiting the unstable OTUS from initiating a preemptive nuclear strike. There is little doubt when Trump’s approval rates drop further into the twenty percent levels they might wake up. Hopefully that will not be too late.