If nothing else the turbulent Trump Presidency has shaken up the static political scene. With the Russian investigation closing in on him, he has put on the blinkers busying himself with moves that have succeeded in widening the cracks in the GOP. Frustrated by the failure of the Republican Congressional majorities to move his agenda, nearly eight months into his tumultuous reign, he has decided to go it alone and throw out the traditional role of a President operating as his Party Leader who collaborates with his Party’s caucus. The latter behavior added to a host of other factors such as the departure of his guru Bannon has jolted the stultifying dead and gridlocked Congress throwing the Republican Establishment in total disarray rendering them floundering and impotent. For the moment the POTUS has thrown in his lot with the Democrats. For whatever reasons, with everything going for them, the Democrats are too facing problems. The Dems were licking their chops as the stars were all in line for them to effortlessly retake Congress but Hillary, opening campaign wounds with Bernie Sanders, has potentially created a division that long ago appeared healed.
BACK HOME IN THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE - CHAOS
Objectively, from every angle, the Trump WhiteHouse is in a chaotic state. The key personal closest to the POTUS, most having been there on day one, are now gone and include - Reince Priebus, (Chief of Staff), Stephen Bannon, (Chief Advisor), Michael Flynn, (National Security Officer), Sean Spicer, (Press Secretary), Mike Dukbe, (Communications Director), Anthony Scaramucci, (Communications Director), Sebastian Gorke, (White House Advisor), K. T. McFarland, (Deputy National Security Advisor), Katie Walsh, (Deputy Chief of Staff), and other key WhiteHouse appointees, Ezra Cohen - Watnick, Tera Dahl, Derek Harvey, Rich Higgins and Michael Short. Trump has had two infamous firings - both Justice Department Officials, Sally Yates (Acting Attorney General) and Richard Comey, (FBI Director). The only key WhiteHouse administrators standing are daughter Ivanka and son in law Jared, both whose experience in Government is zilch.
Added to this unprecedented exit is Trump’s ability to fill only thirty three of the two hundred and twenty top Cabinet posts as compared to the Obama Administration that had placed a one hundred and twenty - six at this stage of the Presidency. So in short for a host of reasons Trump simply is unable to appoint, maintain or recruit a stable staff, let alone a critical mass needed to govern.
The bizarre workings of the WhiteHouse have been force fed to the world via daily leaks from his staff as to the dysfunction of Trump’s style of management and leadership. He thrives on division amongst his “team”, hence the rush to the exits of so many. General Kelly his current Chief of Staff has brought some order as to who can wander in and out of the Oval Office and send suggestions to the leader of the free world. Trump still indiscriminately tweets, not bothering to separate his attacks of TV personalities from major international and national policy statements. It is fair to say that the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing. Added to the strained atmosphere is the most recent directive to WhiteHouse staff not to lie to the Mueller investigation to protect the President.
It also appears that the Cabinet members feel free to cross their leader at will. Gary Cohn, his National Economic Council Director, publicly attacked the President on his equivocal response to the right wing anti semitic violence in Charlottesville. State Secretary Tillerson has made it quite clear that his interpretations of Foreign Policy differ from that of Trump. Defense Secretary Mathis has accepted the role of mopping up after the President reassuring allies that America still stands firm on its defense commitments to its allies, especially in NATO. The most outstanding act of defiance has been effected by what remains of the Bannon faction, Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Sessions, withstanding unimaginable abuse, refused Trump’s injunction not to recuse himself from the Russia investigation then declined to do the right thing and resign when Trump repeatedly berated him in public adding that had he known that Sessions would have adapted this stance he wouldn’t have appointed him in the first place. To add insult to injury Sessions refused to defend DACA in the courts forcing Trump to have to wade prematurely into the highly explosive issue. (He fired his last Acting Attorney General Sally Yates for declining to defend Administration Policy of his Muslim travel bans).
Mix all of the above with a generous helping of chronic lying, inane tweet storms and back and forth reversals of core policies and add a dash of a full scale enquiry into him and close confidants. Then liberally splash his political defense of his legal woes where he attacks the fired FBI Director whose credibility has been affirmed by both branches of the Legislature and you have a recipe for a tsunami.
In conclusion it is fair to say that the depleted ever changing crew in the helter - skelter WhiteHouse are not functioning as a cohesive unit and do not project any confidence that they have a firm grip on the management of the nation.
THE CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP AND THE TRUMP CONSTITUENCY
Trump has taken on Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan the Republican Senate Majority Leader and Republican Speaker of the House respectively. Not really understanding how the American Constitution works he has made it quite clear that the pair of them are incompetent and useless in that they are unable to get anything done. There he has been a well publicized furious spat between him and Mitch McConnell who has not hesitated in informing the world, in polite terms of course, that the POTUS is motherless when it comes to the workings of Government.
Rather than accept responsibility for the total failure for his legislative agenda he has blamed the Republican Congress, mockingly pointing out that that they had promised for seven years to repeal and replace Obamacare and had produced nothing. McConnell has publicly countered the President’s narrative while Ryan has appeared totally ineffectual by failing to tell Trump the way it is. Nothing more characterizes Trump’s attitude towards the Republican leaders than his latest Press Secretary’s response to the fact that Trump had not invited the Republican leadership to his meeting with their Democratic Congressional counterparts. Sarah Huckabee Sanders argued that as Trump was the Republican leader it was not necessary to invite any others!
So Trump has made it quite clear that he is the Republican boss and he doesn’t need the Republican Congressional Establishment.
UNANIMOUS BIPARTISAN CONDEMNATION AT TRUMP EXTREMES
The POTUS has met with unanimous, bipartisan, veto proof resistance by Congress to two major planks in his policy. Firstly on the international front, against his expressed wishes, Congress passed strengthened sanctions against Russia for their interference in the American Presidential elections. They did so fully cognizant of the fact that Trump has not even conceded the Russian role and that he wanted to axe the existing sanctions. On the national front Trump’s wishy washy whitewashing of the ultra right wing which caused such an uproar was countered by the entire legislative branch that near unanimously unequivocally did what he should have done by passing an Act that in no uncertain terms condemned those factions, including the Klu Klux Clan, that were responsible for the racial and anti semitic upheavals in Charlottesville.
There is unanimity in Congress against Trump’s off the wall positions, (no pun intended), nationally and inter nationally. This joint revulsion does not bode well for Trump in the outcome of a referral for impeachment. It has already irked him that the Republican controlled Congress have not only “not protected him” but have gone full steam ahead in their investigations of Russian involvement in the Presidential elections.
TRUMP - HIS NEWEST BEST FRIENDS NANCY AND CHUCK AND THE EXASPERATED GOP
Next up in this Donald in Wonderland saga is the blossoming bromances between Nancy Pelosi, Democratic House Minority Leader and Chuck Schumer the Democratic Minority Senate leader. He undercut the Republican leadership and took away their bargaining position by doing a deal with the Democrats on the raising of the debt ceiling for three months and a Harvey Hurricane Relief package. The debt ceiling is a particularly divisive issue in the Republican caucuses. It is holy grail to some factions that it should not be increased. Their argument is if money is needed it cannot be garnered unless an equal amount of expenditure is cut. For practical purposes that would entail taking money from one or other social program.
Now Ryan and McConnell both know that Harvey needed funding. They are also painfully aware that the debt ceiling needs to be raised. However, they would liked to be in control of this delicate issue so as not to upset their brittle caucuses even more. Ryan wanted to avoid the repetitive pain that revisiting this subject might cause. The Speaker also wished to avoid having the fact that Government spending was increasing in the minds of certain sections of the electorate as it could harm the GOP chances in the 2018 mid term elections. He wanted to couple the Harvey relief with an eighteen month fix of the borrowing by the Government. This would take the matter off the table till after the elections. The problem with Ryan is with his cumbersome factions and only a twenty - four majority in the House it takes an eternity to get his act together. So Trump took the easy way out. He did a deal with the Dems linking Harvey finance to a three month increase of the debt ceiling. The outcome was the bill easily passed with all the Dems voting for and ninety of Republicans against, including several from States that were hit by the hurricane. The media hailed the Dems outmaneuvering Trump and the GOP.
Then there is DACA, one of those campaign promises that Trump has buyer’s remorse over. While his racist credentials are unchallengeable, (Blog: “Apartheid America”), the forced expulsion of eight hundred thousand innocents has major opposition - seventy - five percent of the electorate. However, the very vocal right wing media went ballistic. The influential Anne Coulters, the Rush Limbaughs, the Laura Ingrahams and the Mark Levins have labelled him a sell out.
His initial statement giving Congress six months to fix DACA terminated any cooperation with the Hispanic Community that had surprisingly given him the same support that they had showered on Romney, (thirty percent). The dealings with his uppity Congress leaders and their inability to deliver stat veered his efforts once again to his newest best friends - Nancy and Chuck. First he took dictation for a tweet from sweet Nancy the content of which was to reassure the DACA recipients that nothing could happen for six months - no one would round them up. The quid pro quo from the Dems would be more money for Security but would not include the wall.
Then at another meeting sans any Congressional Republican the outline of the deal was confirmed.This evoked massive hysteria all round from the Republicans as this issue is one that part of the base are heavily against as are several Legislators. While this is more or less what Ryan and McConnell would have gone for but they are so miffed that they may look for a way out.
Finally, the POTUS has supposedly provided his latest chums reassurances about tax reform confirming that the richest may even pay more and the middle class and the poorest less. After all he had spouted on the campaign in line with Republican orthodoxy this has to be the last straw.
The Republicans have to take some comfort from the fact that Trump can renege on anything and everything in the time it takes to tweet one hundred and forty characters.
BANNON AND TRUMP ADD TO THE GOP FACTIONS
Stephen Bannon, who was mistakenly been labelled as Trump’s brain, (he couldn’t be because Trump hasn’t got one), has been unceremoniously axed, with all but one of his crew, from the WhiteHouse. In fairness Bannon was sent packing less for ideological reasons than personal ones. He was an enemy of favorite son Jared, he irritated new Chief of Staff Kelly and most significantly he was being given credit as the man behind Trump. Now Trump brooks no competition, he pointedly stated that Bannon only joined his campaign long after he had bottled the nomination up.
Bannon has unlimited money at his disposal courtesy of a billionaire Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah who controls a PAC. They backed Trump in the election big time but their index man is Stephen Bannon. Bannon, while claiming to being the POTUS’s wingman on the outside, has already put down markers to stake his independence. He has criticized Trump’s decision to fire Comey as the biggest political mistake in modern politics. This in the context of Trump continually justifying the decision and attacking Comey. So from the POTUS’S world this disloyalty is treason. The DACA deliberations have given Bannon the opportunity to restate his key nationalist anti immigrant philosophy warning his former boss that there could be no compromise on “amnesty”.
So it is time to assess the influence of the uncharismatic Bannon. He runs a small but influential digital media outlet Breitbart News. He is focussed on his desire to curtail immigration dramatically, expel illegals and to maintain America’s original demographic character - code for white. He definitely is the guru of what has been labelled the alt right - a loose conglomeration of white supremacists, racists, Neo Nazis in addition to super Conservatives. He has told the Neo Nazis to get lost but they won’t as they have stated that the Trump/Bannon policy was the one they want. In short he has added a pure nationalistic ideological faction to the Republican mix. How large this might be remains to be seen but Bannon without Trump is going to flounder. Bannon with all his money has threatened to put up candidates in the 2018 Primaries whether they will support Trump or not is obviously moot at this point.
But as far as the GOP is concerned they need another clear cut faction participating in the Primaries like a hole in the head. Jay H. Ell cannot imagine that on his own Bannon can become a national force. He can certainly weaken the GOP and for the rootless right wing bands he has finally given them a home. This can turn them into sizable pressure group.
Another spin off all this is that if polling is anything to go buy, distinct from Bannon, there is a Trump GOP faction pure and simple. The Trump faction has no manifesto other than Trump is the Man. The Donald, lest we forget won the Republican nomination hand’s down and despite the disastrous Presidency still has a mid thirty’s approval rating. The question remains how many of this thirty odd percent are more Republican than they are Trumpist and how many would follow Bannon and the Conservative media people. Jay H. Ell believes that of the thirty - five percent stalwarts that still approve of the Presidency over half will follow Trump - right or wrong - after all the Wall is still top of the Trump agenda
HILLARY AND BERNIE
Just as the gleeful Democrats were basking in the Republicans disintegration and in the knowledge that without them nothing could get passed in Washington, Hillary Clinton’s book “What Happened” hit the stands. Although reasonably aggrieved, Hillary picked the wrong time to bare all. Amongst her laundry list of reasons for failure were the Russians, Comey, misogyny, her good self and Bernie’s attacks on her. Bernie was relentless in chucking her into the swamp of Wall Street, in many ways reinforcing the Trump mantra about the Establishment.
Since the election Bernie has stomped the country having lost not an iota of his enthusiasm and following. He has been focussed on the health care issue and now has support of most of the Democrats in the Senate for the introduction of a single payer system for all. At this point in history it won’t fly and Nancy Pelosi the Democratic House Leader has declined to join in and Chuck Schumer has been silent.
To this day Bernie is still The Independent Senator, not The Democratic Senator from Vermont. Hillary has brought this up and implied that he had no right to be in the Democratic Primary. Welcome to the real world of Trump and Bernie. It remains to be seen whether this spat will have any lasting impact. To date it hasn’t because, as Bernie so proudly relates, many of his policies are now those of the Democratic Party. In addition Sanders understands politics and he knows that if the Democratic Establishment freeze him out he can join Bannon on the fringe. His ideas are only as influential as the Democratic Party is strong.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
This is obviously a major transition period in American history. The Republican Party is splintering as faction after faction go after each other and new ones are created. The Democratic Party has been, thus far more adept at integrating the revolutionary changes taking place amongst its electorate into its party platform. This body politic uprising has resulted in the election of a populist President whose sole commitment is to himself. Notwithstanding that fact, he has ridden the tiger of nativism and xenophobia which was latent in the country. There is cause for some consolation in that his extremes of policy have met with near unanimous Congress condemnation.
Ironically, his cynical lack of any real conviction has allowed him to begin to abandon some of what got him elected. Sizing up the gridlock in Washington he has, for the moment, created a consensus between the Democratic Party and the middle of the road Republicans. He is however running out of options and to add to his woes is the systematic relentless Special Prosecutor investigation into his and his campaign’s collusion into the Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election which may prematurely end his reign.
The upshot of this upheaval will be partly resolved in the 2018 Mid Term elections and the prospects look decidedly dickey for the President’s Party. However of most interest is what faction will emerge triumphant in the GOP. The Dems will probably emerge intact having moved to the left in concert with Bernie’s arousal of the base into activism.
No comments:
Post a Comment