MCCAIN’S WATERSHED VOTE: THE FAR REACHING CONSEQUENCES

It took a dying John McCain, the irrepressible maverick and currently the Senate’s Republican elder statesman, to elevate the tone of the sick bizarre political discourse that has impregnated Washington this past six months. A week of high drama saw the Arizona Senator, center stage, trying to steer Senate deliberations to the lofty position that it had assumed in the past. His timely intervention to restore sanity took place in the midst of the puppet master, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, pulling strings so as to pass a cynical recall of Obamacare and replace it with an alternative that literally no one wanted. (Several doubtful Republicans had been persuaded to vote for the Bill with the guarantee that it would never become law). Trump was devastated at the ultimate outcome of the health care debate as he had desperately wanted any Trumpcare Bill so he could finally claim a legislative victory. 

There is little doubt that the McCain vote will have a far reaching impact on the GOP and the relationship between Congress and Trump. It may well represent the tipping point that cut loose the Faustian bargain between the Republican President and his legislators.

MCCAIN TEAMS UP WITH COLLINS AND MURKOWSKI

Amidst the tweeting cacophony and the obscenity that now characterizes the Presidency, McCain called a halt to the swampy sleeze that now passes for the Republican administration. The former Vietnam war hero joined forces with two brave Republican women Senators who had been deliberately excluded from the “reform” process which disproportionately disadvantaged women. They up till now had borne the burden of preventing the Republicans and their excuse for a President from scoring a cheap political victory as opposed to seriously facing the problem of providing health care for the citizens that they represent. This they did in the face of taunts, bullying and illegal threats to punish their constituencies. 

Notwithstanding Senators Collins and Murkowski’s remarkable and unshakeable courage, the historic week long theater, that culminated with McCain entering the august Senate chamber in the early hours of Saturday morning and like a Roman Emperor giving the thumbs down gesture, will be forever associated with the non conformist legislator who put principle before expediency. 

MCCAIN PUTS DOWN HIS MARKER

John Mccain arrived back to the Senate, on a Tuesday to a heartfelt standing ovation. This was not surprising as he is both well loved and respected. He immediately harkened back to previous eras where, in spite of differences, there was a commitment to work collaboratively so that the Senate could discharge its Constitutional responsibility. He claimed that the present deliberations were more partisan than ever before. 

McCain mindful of his own mortality and the morass the Senate and the country now found itself in, waxed eloquently about the role and burden the USA faced: “ We are servants of a great nation - conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.” He then went on that America had gained unprecedented wealth and power as a result of a commitment to those principles. 

The ailing Senator’s impassioned pleas to return to the values that made America Great and the legislative process that put principle into practice was in the context of the Health Care Legislation that was before it. He had literally crawled out of his sick bed to embark on a five hour flight, in the belief that the situation was a landmark one. In so doing he assailed the “behind closed door” process utilized to date. He criticized the strategy of withholding details of the legislation and “springing it on skeptical members and trying to convince them it is better than nothing asking us to swallow our doubts”. “That won’t work”, he prophesied little knowing that it would remain to him to provide the cover for all the doubters who were not prepared to buck the system at this stage of the proceedings. In declaring in no uncertain terms, “I will not vote for the bill as it is today. It’s a shell of a bill right now. We all know that. I have changes urged by my State’s governor that will have to be included to earn my support”, He articulated what so many in his Party believed but who did not have the courage or gravitas to take on the Republican Establishment.

THE WEEK THAT FOLLOWED - MCCONNELL’S ATTEMPTS AT TRUMPCARE

The Machiavellian Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, was not about to change the tactics that he had so successfully employed for that past decade. He was never much interested in defining the role of the Senate as the underpinning of American greatness. His first policy priority had been to ensure Obama only had one term. When that failed it was to guard that Obama could get nothing done. The most notorious example of this destructive and unparliamentarian approach was his blocking of Obama’s Supreme Court nomination, not allowing it to be even debated for nearly a year. In order further to erase the Obama abomination from the history books he was wedded to repeal and replace Obamacare - a goal which he had supported again and again. It was in this context McConnell would attempt to enact legislation that promised to deprive nearly twenty million Americans health care.  Mitch was the best possible option Trump could have as Senate leader as he was more interested in the process than in the principle.

McConnell’s initial stratagem was to claim that the passage of a procedural motion was a resounding victory. In this he was backed by Trump. His motion just to open debate was won by the casting vote of Vice President Pence as the Senate was tied fifty fifty. The two Republican ladies were not even prepared to continue with what they correctly interpreted as a charade. McCain disagreed, voting to allow debate. By this time Trump had reversed his opinion of the war veteran whom he had repeatedly belittled and joined the admiration society. Not that anyone was fooled as to his motive. The POTUS had said on the stump that he had wished McCain a speedy recovery and he needed his vote. The President believed that this had now happened.

From then on there were a succession of Trumpcare Bills that the Senate voted on in the hope that one of them just might stick. These were defeated by varying majorities as McConnell gave all GOP factions an opportunity to vote for a version they might have preferred. This exercise also offered all opponents the freedom to place on record a no vote so as to be able to report back to their constituents that they had opposed something should they need some political cover.

Finally, McConnell presented the real deal, “skinny” repeal which was his ultimate make or break attempt. Prior to this full court pressure had been exerted on the Republican Senators including being put in a bus and forced to go to the WhiteHouse for lunch. There opponents of the legislation had been openly threatened. The content of the “skinny” repeal Bill, which was a feeble attempt at pacifying both wings of the GOP, was revealed late so as only to allow for a few hours of debate. The pressure was tremendous to vote for this Bill that would then go to the House. There was a promise that the House would not pass it so that it could not become legislation and then the Republican leadership of the House and the Senate could hammer out a compromise. To the discredit of the majority of the Bill’s opponents they bought the charade and succumbed to the smoke and mirrors strategy of the maestro. The majority except, of course  the indefatigable duo of Murkowski and Collins. This time however they were joined by the frail Senator from Arkansas.

THE SEQUELA OF MCCAIN’S ACTION

 Trump’s Response and his relationship with Congress

Trump, who is in perpetual chaos, derided the Republicans, as being “useless”. They had promised the electorate for seven years that they would repeal and replace Obamacare and now they had failed. As was his won’t he vacillated as to what course they should now follow. Maybe if he wouldn’t fund Obamacare and millions wouldn’t get insurance then they would blame Obama for the failure! He finally instructed the Senate to continue with the struggle of passing something. The Senate refused. McConnell wanted to get on with the budget and more importantly address the Debt Ceiling. It has been part of the  Republican holy grail that the US escalating debt has to be halted. Good old Donald had said so too but surprise surprise he had now changed his mind. His Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has been begging Congress for months to raise the ceiling but he has been getting the middle finger. The latest on the issue is that the WhiteHouse and the Senate meetings have broken up on this issue with only twelve working days left to resolve it. If not resolved Government agencies will have to shut.

Trump worsened the soured atmosphere by tweeting that relationship with Russia has never been worse as a result of Congress, who couldn’t even get Obamacare replaced and repealed,

All this adds to the growing disconnect between the Republican executive and legislative branches. Jay H. Ell believes it can only get worse. Republican Congressmen will be further encouraged to abandon the POTUS as his latest approval numbers are stuck below thirty - five percent showing a definite erosion of his base. 

McConnell’s Omnipotence Shattered and the impact on the GOP

The spell and hold McConnell has had over his caucus has been broken. Although, that judgement, under the circumstances, is unfair to say the least, as all he had was a tiny majority to work with. He gave it a full go and had no room to maneuver and if it wasn’t for McCain he would have pulled it off. However this defeat has given the green light for the disparate Republican factions to do their own thing. McConnell’s relationship with Trump isn’t all that marvelous and he has been openly defiant to the POTUS’S suggestions as to how to run the Senate. 

The Republicans in the House of Representatives have chimed in as well as they have been left in limbo. Many voted for what their unsupportive President subsequently dubbed as a “mean bill” with the promise that the Senate would have a more generous version that might ultimately become the law. However while Ryan managed a narrow victory on a Bill that was trounced in the Senate he would have big problems in ultimately passing a Bill that would have satisfied the Senate as well.

In short this chaos triggered by McCain is going to exacerbate the divisions in the Republican Party and add to its woes in the 2018 midterm elections. The Conservative constituencies are going to wail that their Congressmen didn’t deliver on their promise while all those States that have benefited from Obamacare will crucify their representatives for leaving them in limbo. Between the healthcare shambles and Trump the Republicans have an uphill battle.

The Democrats and bipartisanship

It was left to Democratic Minority leader Chuck Schumer to pay a touching tribute to Senator McCain. He took up his call for bipartisanship and generously accepted some Democratic responsibility for the mess the legislative process is in. Schumer also harkened to the “good old days” in the Senate where the body acted as it should as the adults in the process. There is little doubt that the ad hoc bipartisan groups in both the Senate and the House are going to have more and more influence as time goes by. Realistically with the Republican party in such a disarray that is the best shot at any legislation seeing the light of day. 

Exacerbating Trump’s Woes

All this has to have aggravated the beleaguered Trump’s woes. Contemporaneous with McCain’s historic vote, which seems like a century ago, he has fired a Communications Director, Press Secretary and a Chief of Staff and appointed a savior Chief of Staff that is so unlike him that it is inconceivable that he will last very long. The scandals related to Russiagate just pile up as leak after leak hit The Washington Post and New York Times. Congress has signaled with near unanimous votes that they disagree with him maintaining that the Russians intervened in the election on his behalf. The legislative body has made his rapprochement with Putin impossible by piling on extra sanctions rather than removing existing ones. Meanwhile the investigations into Russiagate plow on with a growing emphasis on finance. Mueller has even impaneled a Grand Jury to get testimony under oath. While The Donald’s usual modus operandi is attack he has put in place a conservative military man who practices defense and discipline to salvage his Presidency. John Kelly, the new Chief of Staff, if he can control the POTUS would improve matters. But as history has shown, nobody but nobody takes over from Donald Trump - at least not for very long, a fact that Mooch Scaramucci can testify too. 

It is fair to say that McCain by injecting values into the American political debate while simultaneously defining the outcome of the most important issue of the Trump Presidency has capped a rich and lengthy career. He also opened the floodgates for anarchy within the Republican Party and its relationship with the President. Many pundits viewed McCain’s actions as pay back for Trump’s derogatory remarks at his heroism but this was not the consensus view of those who know him. Jay H. Ell can only but join the tens of millions of well wishers and add his prayers for a McCain recovery. 

Incidentally it is only fitting that McCain was first to respond to Trump’s tweet blaming Congress for the worsening relations with Russia. McCain argued that the sanctions legislation was enacted to demonstrate that Putin must pay a real price for attacking “our” democracy, violating human rights, occupying Crimea and destabilizing Ukraine