NEW SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE ON DIET

“Knowledge is like fish - it goes off”

The medical world, for the past seventy - five years, backed up by powerful governmental and commercial institutions, has unambiguously advocated a low fat diet with an emphasis on the intake of carbohydrates. To this day the Food Pyramid, which represents the dietary policy of the United States Center for Nutrition, recommends carbohydrates of one sort of another to make up the majority of the calories as the source of nutrition.  Pasta, cereals, bread and rice form the bulk, (a minimum of six servings per day) while fruit and vegetables, which are carbs as well, are suggested to make up a further five servings.  Proteins and Fats, dairy produce, meat, poultry, eggs and fish according to this unbending protocol are advocated for only four servings per day. The danger of fats and cholesterol is underlined on the government site with a warning that these nutrients can cause a higher risk of heart disease and certain types of cancer. 

Over the years there have been challenges to this approach, mainly from non medical groups, but only recently has this mantra been seriously confronted in the medical scientific arena. Spurring on the assault on the holy grail has been a paradigm changing study the outcome of which was published in the prestigious British Medical Journal,The Lancet, this month. 

But before elaborating on the findings it needs an explanation on what the medical profession based its recommendations in the first place. 

THE GENESIS OF THE LOW FAT HIGH CARBOHYDRATE DIET

It is fair to argue that the basis of the high carbohydrate low fat diet had a large body of science behind it and it’s advocacy represented a reasonable interpretation of the available evidence at the time. The foundation of the knowledge that lead to the recommendations lay in a unique painstaking scientifically valid epidemiological study which was conducted over decades, entitled the Framingham Study. This pioneering work focussed on observations of a small stable Massachusetts community in a town called Framingham. The group of investigators initial revelations nailed three key risk factors for coronary heart disease - hypertension, cigarette smoking and raised cholesterol. The latter discovery would lead to the medical profession to focus on lowering cholesterol as a means for preventing heart attacks in addition to the aggressive management of hypertension and an anti smoking crusade. 

The next major influence in the genesis of the low fat diet was lead by an American physiologist Ancel Keys who, like the Framingham group, found raised cholesterol to be causative of heart attacks. Spearheaded by Keys’s investigations, the medical establishment made the assumption that decreasing dietary fat intake would lead to lower blood lipids and cholesterol and therefore a decrease in heart disease. In 1956 the American Medical Association made its nutritional endorsement that is still alive and well in the Food Pyramid. The objective was to cut down dramatically on fats intake as they caused heart disease and replace them by carbohydrates. 

THE OPPOSITION TO THE HIGH CARBOHYDRATE LOW FAT DIET

As early as the sixties Keys was challenged by a British physiologist, John Yudkin, who argued that sugar especially fructose was the culprit not cholesterol in the etiology of coronary heart disease. Yudkin published a book entitled “Pure White and Deadly” and became the pariah of the medical profession, lead by Keys. The British nutritionist was laughed out of court. Jay H. Ell, as a medical student, experienced this barrage first hand when Yudkin was a Visiting Professor, in 1965, to his Medical School at the University of Cape Town. He was ignored and poo poohed when he questioned one heart attack victim after the other on their diet. This even so when the victims claimed that their food intake consisted predominantly of carbohydrates. The patients’ lipid panels, however, were raised and the assumption was that that was due to food intake. Keys won the debate and the British Professor was largely ignored. The emphasis on low fats and high carbohydrates was institutionalized by the food industry where it still gleans major backing to this day.

 It was nearly fifty years later that the sugar pioneer was vindicated. In 2012 his book was republished and widely read.  A Californian pediatric endocrinologist gained recognition for corroborating Yudkin’s work as to the dangers of sugar in the genesis of obesity, heart disease and diabetes. In fairness other researchers had backed the sugar and carbohydrate hypothesis but they too were ignored.  

What may have heralded a revolutionary institutional change in this domain is a recent major nutritional epidemiological study organized by a vast team of Canadian researchers. The latter has solidified the Yudkin sugar theory on a sound scientific basis.

THE LATEST NUTRITIONAL STUDIES

A series of seminal papers emanating from the McMaster University in Canada and published, this month, in the British Journal, The Lancet, is bound to trigger a revision of the high carbohydrate low fat diet. They resulted from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology, (PURE) study which was conducted in eighteen countries. A 135,000 patients were enlisted and observed, on average, for seven years. Their diets were analyzed and their health outcomes recorded. During the study 5,796 patients died and 4,784 cardiovascular incidents were recorded. 

The key findings revealed that those patients who had a high intake of carbohydrates had a thirty percent greater chance of dying while those who had a high diet of fats had a twenty three percent less chance of succumbing. In addition the positive effect of a high number of servings of fruit, legumes and vegetables was not borne out in the findings. The benefit of these nutrients was maxed out at only three to four servings per day as opposed to the minimum of five demanded by the Food Pyramid. The study also indicated that a high carb diet in fact increased the blood lipids rather than the conventional wisdom that it was fats. All this finally vindicated the many groups that have been advocating variations of diets that emphasize a high fat content.

CONCLUSIONS

* To understand the PURE result it is obvious that dietary intake of fat has not the, long touted, effect of increasing the blood lipids including cholesterol. In fact the opposite occurs. The source of the high cholesterol that Framingham famously found to be associated with heart disease, in the middle of the twentieth century, is produced by the body endogenously, and not by fat food intake, which theory had been pioneered by Keys.  

* The PURE study will give an impetus to the advocates of high fat low carbohydrate diets and the dieting industry generally There are several versions on the market and in the literature including the Atkins diet and a more severe example - the Ketogenic diet. The latter limits carbohydrates dramatically mainly to leafy greens and  above ground grown vegetables. This turns the conventional food pyramid on its head with all the meats, fish, poultry, eggs and dairy at the base and the carbs at the apex. 

• One fact for sure is that John Yudkin has been vindicated although the medical profession has been resistant to accept the reversal of the former theory that had been written in stone. In fact the leading proponents of this approach including  Dr. Tim Noakes of South Africa have faced challenges from those in control of the profession. Noakes even faced a disciplinary action for advocating management not consistent with conventional guidelines and for inappropriately giving advice on social media. Not surprisingly Noakes was abandoned by his University colleagues who stuck to the conventional hymns. The hearing turned out to be an international platform for those supporting the status quo and those backing the latest science. Noakes was found not guilty, striking a blow for his preferred Banting low carbohydrate/high fat diet.

• While the high fat /low carbohydrate diet is steadily gaining acceptance there are two key factors that there is no consensus on -  how much fat in the diet is best and high low should the carbohydrate intake be.  Also there needs to be greater clarification on the differing effects, if any, between unsaturated and saturated fats.

• There is also evidence that that the fractions of cholesterol such as LDL and HDL may not be the most useful in measuring cardiac risk and other parameters will be introduced. The current understanding will change and be developed as times goes on. Remember however no scientific knowledge is necessary the ultimate truth. Many a sacred cow has been toppled by advances and as the Chinese proverb reminds us - Knowledge is like fish….it goes off. 

• The application of the latest knowledge might take decades to take hold. The food industry revolves around the Food Pyramid and, if it needs reminding, it took half a century for the tobacco industry to officially call it quits and even then they are still going strong.

PAUSE FOR A MINUTES SILENCE

Finally, the very least the institutions could do would be stand in silence out of empathy for those of us who, for three score and ten years, have had a hearty eggless cereal breakfast, learned to love skim milk and butterless bread, resisted meat, avoided cheese, ate guiltless pasta and dutifully took our statins. Still the baby boomers can take heart, pardon the pun, they are still around and seventy is the new forty.

TRUMP DIGS DEEP AS HIS PRESIDENCY SINKS

 The POTUS switched to his unique campaign mode as a major showdown between him and the Republican Senate Majority McConnell surfaced in the New York Times. The Republican Senate Leader was quoted as having doubts as to whether The Donald could save his Presidency. The President also allegedly was angry at McConnell for not protecting him from the Russian investigations which were hotting up behind the scenes.  In addition there were weakening poll numbers even in the key rust belt states that had put the President over the top in the election. So with all that and the criticism of the fired Stephen Bannon ringing in his ears Trump fired on all his cylinders. (Bannon had chided  that his Presidential like behavior on Afghanistan was a “sell out”). So off Trump angrily rushed to his comfort blanket base displaying his customary lack of discipline and recklessness to the rhythm of his factual inaccuracies. 

RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

To add insult to injury, the Russian investigations were grinding on in the Congress and the Department of Justice frustrating the POTUS even further. The latest shocking news was that the Senate Judiciary Committee had been interviewing the Fusion group that was responsible for the investigation that had resulted in a dossier that detailed Trump’s alleged collusion with the Russians. The investigating agency’s representative gave ten hours of testimony to the Senate Committee where he provided detail as to why Fusion stands behind its devastating exposure of Trump and his campaign. Fusion has provided the Committee with tens of thousands of pages of supportive documents.

MORE OF THE SAME

This was the eighth occasion in his seven month old Presidency that he has gone to the well to hear or scream those familiar chants  - “Lock her up”, “Mexico will pay for it”, “drain the swamp”, “no longer will other countries steal our wealth”, “the system is corrupt”, “fake news” and other deeply populistic sound bites. He could remind the faithful, as he always did, how good it had been to hear the election results come when he achieved, “The greatest victory ever”. It was understandable that he regarded that as the highlight of his Presidency as it has been downhill ever since. So to plagiarize the John Denver ballad he was humming, “By the time I get to Phoenix they’ll be waiting. They’ll bellow homage like they've done so many times before”. In Phoenix there would be the sympathetic ear to learn that, even though he is President, the system is rigged against him because he is an outsider, like them. At these shindigs he is able to indulge himself by wallowing in self pity and victimhood. He can also regale the faithful with all the executive orders he has signed, claiming that no President has done as much in so little time. 

THE GOP PHOENIX AND ARIZONA ESTABLISHMENT TOLD HIM  TO STAY HOME

To say the least he was hardly being welcomed by the local establishment. The Governor of Arizona would great him on his arrival and then he would be off to see to law and order as the Trump devotees would be in a face off against thousands of counter protestors. The Mayor of Phoenix repeatedly told him that he wasn’t welcome in his town as his presence was a divisive force in relationships between his citizens. Both Arizonan Republican Senators, who have criticized the POTUS in no uncertain terms, pointedly would not be attending the Republican Leader’s rally. 

WHAT THE GOP FEARED MIGHT ARISE FROM PHOENIX

The Republican Party establishment and intelligentsia took a collective deep breath as they awaited the fall out from the Trump blow out. They could hardly hope for a mature uniting speech from the POTUS, (been there done that the night before on Afghanistan). Even the Donald would know that his red meat ardent adherents, some who would have travelled miles and others who had lined up the night before to worship and scream, wanted to hear how he was going to make America Great Again. The Republican Party were worried that Trump would officially back the rival of the Republican Senator incumbent Jeff Flake in the midterm elections. Trump has already tweeted support of her while abusing Flake.The chances were pretty high as Flake has just published a book highly critical of his fearless leader. Trump’s favourite was a real flake - Kelli Ward, who talks more palpable rubbish than does The Donald. The Senate Republican leadership had sponsored an attack ad on Ms Ward, blasting her off the wall conspiracy theory that had noxious “chemtrails” being scattered in the sky. 

The other major fear that the GOP nurtured, together with any sane citizen was that he would pardon America’s toughest Sherif, Joe Arpaio. The latter had been instructed  by Federal Court not to conduct any further racist indiscriminate round ups of immigrants. Whereupon Arpaio promptly defied them and was found guilty of contempt of court. Arpaio’s history was littered with abuses of power and discrimination. He was a regular feature on the Trump campaign.  Finally, the Sherif was voted out of office in 2016 but has remained a poster child for Trump’s base. 

Then there were a pile of other worries including as to what he may say to divide the country even further with a rehash of Charlottesville being uppermost.

TRUMP WAS EVEN WORSE THAN FEARED

Trump delivered most of what had been feared and then some. First and foremost he delivered to a disinterested Bannon, a populistic agenda. Trump rambled on for over an hour where he doubled down, in a thirty minute barrage, against the unpatriotic media whom he claimed were responsible for the division in the country and were the enemy of him and those he represented. 

He relitigated his disastrous Charlottesville response with a vengeance. This he effected by selectively quoting from his initial explosive statement. Again it was the media who were to blame for the distortion and the chaos that ensued. He proudly broached subjects that he bragged that his advisors had warned him not to bring up - Charlottesville being the prime example.Then he trashed the off the record reassurances that Sherif Arpaio would not be pardoned by broadly hinting that that was on the cards. He asked rhetorically whether Sherif Joe had been convicted for doing his job?

He threatened to shut the Government down if they didn’t include $1.6 billion for his wall, (that Mexico was supposed to pay for), in the budget. He railed against the “do nothing” Republicans particularly in the Senate. He upped the ante by going against the holy grail attacking sitting Senators and even worse one up for reelection. Added to all this was gratuitous advice that has already been rejected by McConnell on how Senate business should be conducted.

Trump became even more infantile than reasonably could be envisaged when airing his grievances against elites. He claimed that he was better than them. He went on to brag the he went to better schools than them. He was a better student than them and had a better apartment.

He then moved into his latest plank of his populist armamentarium by declaring that he and his Trumpets were in a culture war and that “the swamp,” aided and abetted by the media, wanted to deny them their history. 

THE UPSHOT

The ramifications of this latest barrage are far reaching:

* It is hard to imagine meaningful legislation being enacted in this unprecedented environment where a President is openly at odds with his Party. He is after all their leader. When legislators return on September 5th they have twelve working days to fund the government. The Republicans cannot do this alone as they have irreconcilable differences within their conference. They need the Democrats. The latter will not vote $1.6 billion dollars for the wall. In addition the Trump administration want to raise the debt ceiling. That is non negotiable to the Tea Party/Freedom Caucus and there is no way they will vote for it without slashing every social program which Trump ostensibly is for, not to mention the Democrats. The only solution is a bipartisan veto proof consensus with both Ryan and McConnell working with Pelosi and Schumer or a temporary continuing of the current budgetary arrangement. 

* Trump will get angrier and less disciplined as he becomes more and more cornered. Every poll directly and indirectly shows him losing support. It was reliably reported that the crowd thinned appreciably as he ranted on in Phoenix.The scary question is whether the twenty odd percent that he will be left with are prepared to go to the brink with him. A recent survey however indicated that fifty - four percent of his supporters maintain that he should resign if Russian collusion is proved.

* James Clapper former Director of National Intelligence, who has served several Presidents, questioned Trump’s fitness to be President following the Phoenix address. He prayed for the nightmare to end in which the President had access to the nuclear codes. He joined a chorus of politicians, military and business executives who are being increasingly antsy about the unstable rash President.

* As a sickly aside, Ryan and company would hold their noses and sell their souls if somehow or other they could pass their tax reduction legislation.

* The entry of Bannon into the fray, who is apparently going to attack Trump, will split the Republicans even further. Trump is hovering around thirty five percent at the moment - twelve percent off his election figures. Bannon might have a big pull on the twenty percent that have maintained come hell or high water they are for Trump.

* Following Phoenix, Trump switched gears once again punting unity and the equality of all Americans in a speech to Veterans in Reno Nevada. The problem for him is that he no longer has any credibility. He has crossed the rubicon. There is nothing he can do or say that can right the ship with the majority of Americans.

* What is the end game for Trump? Jay H. Ell believes it will come via Russiagate. He then can pardon himself and his family and ride into the sunset back into Trump Tower. Jay H. Ell imagines that the POTUS fantasizes his hard core base rising up in support. Nothing else explains his eight campaign meetings in seven months. It is unlikely that Trump has the discipline to sit out an impeachment. 

* It is crunch time for the GOP leadership. Trump is toxic and the longer they don’t challenge him the more damage he does to their brand. Obviously they are going to take a hit if they axe him but their alternative is to continue to loose credibility along with him and then spend the next few years arguing that they never really supported him. 

TRUMP: CRUNCH TIME OR IS IT?

While the Trump Presidency unravels - the latest disasters being the forced disbanding of his centerpiece corporate advisory panels and an unprecedented incursion into the civil domain by the military leaders - the Republican Congressional leadership dither on. The time has surely passed for the Republican Establishment and Congress not just to “be disappointed”, “disagree with his remarks” or merely state that all neo nazis are bad. The time has come to publicly disown the President by name if they don’t want their party’s takeover by Trump to be final. If this does not happen the Republican Party together with Trump will be relegated to the dustbin of history. 

The POTUS'S flagrant and defiant stance - equating a white terrorist, ISIS like, driving into crowds and murdering a young woman, screaming mobs carrying Nuremberg like torches, waving Nazi flags and shouting anti semitic remarks with civil right protestors, who are registering their abhorrence to what they are witnessing, - just has to be the last straw or is it?

IF YOU RANT AND BEHAVE LIKE A RACIST, SUPPORT RACISTS YOU PROBABLY ARE……

Trump has decided who is his most important constituency - the right wing militants. As he runs out of constitutional and legal options he will still has his “second amendment people”. He seems oblivious to the fact that his exhorting them to action is the equivalent to a declaration of civil war. The ostensible battle in the streets is over the symbols of the Confederacy who were fighting to keep slaves. Trump’s end battle, he fantasizes, will be a rerun of that fight. The fact that he is deluded is irrelevant. The fact that at the end of the day he cannot win will not deter him nor eliminate the destruction and havoc his megalomania and racist ideology will continue to reap in the process. 

For those who feign surprise at this turn of events they should objectively look back at the past six years which started with his hurtful racist “birther” campaign against America’s first black President. In this cowardly bullying exercise he illustrated his capacity to move from one lie to another without skipping a heart beat. The Republican leadership stood by then as they do now. In fact his dastardly cynical crusade coincided with the Congressional Republicans’ only stated policy for eight years - get rid of Obama or refuse to cooperate on anything with him. That was all that kept the Party from splintering - hatred of Obama.  

His Presidential drive was littered with racist acts and lies - Muslims cheering 9/11, Mexican wall to keep their rapists, murderers and drug dealers out, deporting twelve million “aliens”, most of whom were also rapists, murderers and drug dealers, attacks on the judiciary on racial lines, anti constitutional racist immigration and visa policies and so it went….. His obsession with totalitarian Putin, who has become the new poster child for racial purity, was and still is a central pillar of what passes for his world view. 

In nearly seven months of his Presidency Trump has done nothing to unite America - not even a gesture to the white Democrats. On the contrary he has merely exacerbated tension and division. This is his modus operandi. There are no rationalizations, excuses or mitigating circumstances. For practical purposes the Republican leadership has allowed him to continue on unhindered even though he has belittled them. In the process their credibility has eroded. (Blog: Trump’s Last Stand - A Civil War).

It is what it is

THE WATING GAME IS OVER

It is no use waiting anymore for the legal processes to play out and then “regretfully” have to follow the law and sanction him. Each day that goes past Trump, who has no affiliation to any party, sullies what is left of the GOP’S reputation. In fact Trump is going to commit more illegalities as the newspapers reveal more and the Mueller and Congress investigations roll on. There will be court challenges, pardons and whatever it takes for the Trump to survive. Currently the WhiteHouse and Fox News are working on a story that the real collusion issue is between Hillary Clinton and the Ukrainians not between the Trump campaign and Russia. The argument presumably is that the seventeen intelligence agencies missed Hillary’s treason and made up the GOP collusion. Nobody but his base will believe this garbage but as it should be obvious by now that they are the only audience he is playing to.  

In addition the forthcoming elections will render a devastating blow to the GOP. There are going to be massive losses. But whatever happens their needs to be a credible story on which to rebuild again. Not a demoralized group has to spend their time explaining why they supported Trump.

Pathetically standing around sanctifying and legitimatizing this madness in the hope that the Republican agenda can be passed is a pipe dream. Firstly, the Republican majority is a myth. As matters stand there are at least two Republican Parties who cannot agree on anything significant. It the GOP wants to live another day to resolve their internal issues now is the time to act. Secondly, there is no real Trump agenda and what there is need not necessarily mesh with the GOP. That is if they can unify on anything substantial. The answer is to do what is obvious in a bipartisan fashion with a veto proof majority as they did on sanctions on Russia. For example, let the leadership of both parties meet on the budget and hammer out a compromise on the understanding that all will vote for the compromise.  

So the leadership need to follow the other Republican constituencies, who admittedly have not the same problem of re election, who have told Trump, “Nada”. If the legislators want the  support of the traditional Republican constituencies they better earn it. Otherwise their only platform will be as independents or a moderate in the Party of Trump. 

The Neo Nazi right wing project for 2017 is to protect the Confederate memorials to those who fought for the right to buy and sell human beings. There are a ton of these memorials all over the show so this is the beginning of a protracted attempt to become a political force in the USA. This crowd is emboldened by the President and they need to know that that does not mean the Republican Party. As this sickly exhibition drags on with only Trump to defend it ideally the country should unite in condemnation. This cannot happen while Trump has still the legitimacy of the GOP and unchallenged continues to represent them. David Duke the head of the KKK has thanked Trump as has Robin Spenser the organizer of the alt right protest. Duke declared to Trump, “God bless you” while Spenser hailed Charlottesville as a success. It is quite clear that this crowd want a race war.  

Trump for his part appears committed to stay the course with chief staffers, Bannon, (don’t believe the hype that he is about to be kicked out), Gorka a Hungarian Nazi and Stephen Miller a close associate of Spenser. The fact that Bannon blurted out publicly, that he is involved in internecine palace  battles is indicative of Trump’s dysfunctional administration. He, more than anyone else represents the bizarre philosophy of Trumpism.

DOUBAJA, 43,  AND HIS DAD PRESIDENT 41

So to Presidents Bush 41 and 43 - no it is not just going to cut it just to issue a statement condemning racism. In this climate it is barely noticed. You need to condemn Trump and categorically state that he does not represent the Republican Party. While you are about it convince the Congressional Republican leadership to do likewise. You can point out to them that not only is there a pattern to Trump’s egregious behavior it only gets worse and worse each time, so there is no hope!  He is busy doubling down on the Confederate story as we speak, claiming to be mourning the loss of those “beautiful statues”. 

So Bush 41 and 43 articulate to the Republican legislative bodies, as a start, to allow motions of censure on the President. Then instruct them that they need to set up Special Committees to investigate the right wing violence and its implications. Finally, as Congress has shown such a penchant to investigate Hillary Clinton, they should institute another one to look at the genesis of the fake news that Hillary colluded with Ukraine and why the Intelligence Agencies covered it up.  

TRUMP’S LAST STAND- A CIVIL WAR?

John Dean prophetically warned Nixon that there was a cancer in his Presidency. With Trump one could argue that his Presidency was under a nuclear cloud in more ways than one.

The wheels are coming off fast. The end of the long road is in sight and The Donald has decided to speed on all cylinders as the methodical case being build against him and his inner circle relentlessly proceeds. He characterizes the threatening legal process, as any  totalitarian demagogue might, as a confrontation between him, the blue collared billionaire, and his deprived frenzied mob, against the corrupt world. It is he, he claims, the people’s candidate, that has been victimized by the forces of the establishment swamp including the Republicans. He has increasingly clung to his slowly diminishing loyal base as he has gone with his gut and decided that he will fight his legal battle politically. Jay H. Ell’s fear is that in this take no prisoners blitzkrieg, Trump’s frequent allusions to the “Second Amendment People” being the only answer to the “rigged system”, could invite violence as he ratchets up the rhetoric. 

HE RILES UP THE MOB  - “IT IS A SUBVERSIVE PLOT” 

So Trump will make more and more appearances in front of crowds in States that he won. For the moment he will gain solace from the giddy adulation he is subject to as he replays the campaign. He will rant that it is Hillary’s emails, her paid speeches and the aluminum she gave to Putin that are really the issues that the swamp should be investigating, not him. 

He will scoff at the supposed hypocrisy of the establishment as he did in West Virginia raving that it was them, the screaming mob, that got him elected, not the Russians.  The Mueller investigation is just a witch hunt and a hoax, he harangues. He ranted on, “The Russia story is a total fabrication. It is an excuse for the greatest loss in the history of American politics”. He then claimed that the Special Counsel, a life long Republican, is a Democratic operative who appoints Democrats to help bring him down. Trump’s summed up his assessment of a constitutionally mandated judicial probe as follows:

“They can’t beat us at the voting booths, so they’re trying to cheat you out of the future and the future that you want. They are trying to cheat you out of the leadership you want with a fake story that is demeaning to all of us, most impurely demeaning to our country and demeaning to our constitution.”

Thus he turns a Justice Department initiated probe arising out of the intelligence of seventeen government agencies and initiated by the FBI into a Democratic Party ploy to divert attention from their humiliating defeat and an attempt to reverse the will of the people. The scary part of this all is that Trump has decided to take on the rule of law and democracy by appealing to the horde. Even more scary is that he has already accepted that the “Second Amendment People can do something about the rigged system”. But before looking down at what might transpire with the ultimate demise of Trump it would be useful to look at what forces have aligned against him in the space of six months is he faces the greatest challenge of his life. 

WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN SIX HECTIC MONTHS

In the light of the fact that a damaging enquiry into Trump and his operatives is underway it is important to assess his support in the event that this might go “the wrong way”. It is, however, a fair comment that the Trump Presidency has been down hill from day one. He has alienated every possible constituency excepting his base. Who can forget how it all started - the raucous about the crowd size on the mall, the attack on the media for deliberately underestimating it and the credibility of his Press Secretary sacrificed, from the word go, to perpetuate the lie that the audience was greater than at Obama’s inauguration?

Trump and American Constituencies 

Any new President is the recipient of a large amount of goodwill as even those that opposed him make a virtue out of necessity and welcome him in. From time immemorial in a new POTUS’S inaugural address he does the right thing and embraces all Americans as he is now the President of all of America. Not a chance with The Donald, if you didn’t vote for him your’e a loser. In addition unlike the usual upbeat stuff about the good ole USA being God’s gift to the planet, he depicted America as wallowing in the pits and notwithstanding his dark oratory he would make America great again. In the following six months he has done nothing to woo all sections of American society. On the contrary he has socked it to the minorities and everyone else. He is even going against the law of Affirmative Action to protect his white base. 

Trump and the media

Any love affair between the Presidency and the media never lasts very long. However most don’t reach the intensity of hatred that is evident with the current regime. Trump attacks the gentlepeople of the Press with vigor. Understandably, they are cutting him no slack - just the opposite. For whatever reason the New York Times and The Washington Post have increased their profitability and readership dramatically within six months. Jeff Bezos of Amazon fame bought the Washington Post and with his acumen and the employment of over a one hundred and forty additional journalists he has turned a company around, with the help of Trump of course, that was about to fade into oblivion.. Interestingly the network MSNBC which has languished in the number three political position forever has sprinted to the top of the pops. Fox has been demoted, on occasion, in the Nielsen ratings to the third position behind MSNBC and CNN after dominating the viewership for years. Rachelle Maddow the MSNBC commentator has soared to the top rating regularly. Perhaps the most salutary evidence of the negative impact the media has had on The Donald is the metric is that he has had not attempted a press conference for virtually six months.

Trump is now totally reliant on Fox and Friends, Hannity, social media and the internet for the unconditional  support and loyalty he demands.

Trump, the Republican Congress and the Republican Party

 Trump has drifted further and further away from the Party that he ostensibly leads. The Republican Congress were only to ready to overlook his obscenities in the hope that a Republican agenda could be effected. Where matters stand at the moment is that both the House and the Senate have almost unanimously voted to place sanctions on Russia in defiance of Trump’s wishes. The Senate has refused to continue with Trumpcare legislation. There is a standoff between Trump and the Republican legislature on the debt ceiling - Trump reneging on campaign promises on GOP holy grail stuff by wanting to increase American debt. In addition the Senate has unanimously stopped him from firing Sessions and putting in a dummy to terminate Special Prosecutor Mueller. The Republican Congress virtually neutered him when they publicly warned him of the consequences if he axed his Attorney General Sessions. To insult to injury Congress refuses to finance Trump’s beautiful wall that he promised Mexico would pay for. He is even involved in a twitter war with McConnell, the Republican leader of the Senate.

However, nothing was more devastating to his leadership of the Republican controlled Congress then McCain putting the kibosh to Trumpcare. McCain with his definitive vote opened the floodgates worsening the dysfunctional Presidency in many dimensions. This turn of events has freed Republicans to do their own thing. There are a string of GOP Senators that are ready to ditch their leader. First man out of the blocks was conservative Senator Jeff Flake who has unleashed a scathing attack on Trump. A book is to follow. 

To add insult to injury there is unopposed bipartisan Congress support to prevent Trump firing Special Prosecutor Mueller “without cause”. Trump’s options are receding far faster than anyone might have imagined.

In the wake of the crisis of the McCain coup Trump cut loose any ties he had with the good old GOP.  Reince Priebus, his Chief of Staff, and the former Chairman of the National Republican Party was rewarded for his sell out of his Republican principles by being shown the door. He became one of the shortest serving Chief’s of Staff in history. Accompanying Priebus in his exit was the national joke Sean Spicer who was the other GOP operative in the Trump administration. There are now no longer Republican Establishment figures in the POTUS’S inner circle.

As matters stand Trump is on his own in the face of threatening legal jeopardy. Trump will have his work cut out to get on the same page as the Republican Congress.

Trump and the 2018 midterm elections.

At the moment the Republicans, whoever they may be, are staring at massive loss in the face in 2018. The best they can hope for is that they retain the Senate as the electoral calendar favors them in that arena and barely hang onto the House. Whatever happens in these elections it is not going to help Trump or the GOP. In the unlikely event that they do do well they will be more split than they are now. Trump will now have a defined faction thereby increasing the split in the Party to at least three divisions - the traditional conservatives, the traditional moderates and the new Trumpites. 

Without too much discussion there is nothing in the horoscope that portends that in the future 2018 election there is help for the Trump cause.

Trump and the comedians

If the unprecedented merciless onslaught that Trump is undergoing from comedians could translate into political action he would be toast already. He is the nightly fodder for six shows on the conventional networks, CBC, NBC and ABC. These popular channels are joined by HBO, TBS, Comedy Central and on the new medium, Netflix, where he is mocked in show after show while ratings increase in a direct relationship to the lampooning that he is the recipient off. To look at just one example. Stephen Colbert was struggling till he laisered in on Trump and resuscitated his show. Saturday Night Live the progenitor of the comedy genre gave Hillary a bit of a run in the election but now it is pure unadulterated Trump satire. While this is entertainment it has to mean something that ratings and advertising are up across the board with the non stop roasting of the POTUS.  To put it at it’s kindest Trump can hardly expect any empathy from this crowd when it all hits the fan.

Trump and the polls

Like everything else the polls on his approval rating have gone South in the six months since he assumed office. Trump’s initial positive support was forty eight percent. Confidence in him has steadily eroded and now his approval ratings are lingering at thirty three percent. This is pretty close to rock bottom.  Using the Nixon impeachment story as an indicator tells how precarious his position is. Nixon at the time of his resignation had twenty nine percent approval, only four percent less than Trump. 

So Trump’s ignoring of the polls in favor of his rah rah rah base meetings in States that he won maybe a denial of reality to say the least. In fact he states that his base is firm and the polls are fake news.

The Trump Whitehouse

His administration is in a total shambles. Trump has put the dys into dysfunctional. One is beginning to understand why he went bankrupt so many times. As far as his personnel are concerned anyone who gets appointed signs up to play Russian Roulette in a circular firing squad. Time and again Trump contradicts a spokesperson as the WhiteHouse struggles to get the story straight. As time marches on the large number of positions still remain unfilled.

Any hold he might have had on his own administration was shattered by Jeff Sessions who simply refused to do the decent thing and resign when Trump told him that he made a mistake in appointing him. Everyday the insiders take it in turn to leak embarrassing stuff. The WhiteHouse is a house of intrigue with varying factions openly vying against each other. The most recent scrap is between Bannon and McMaster. The former’s internet mouthpiece Breitbart News is openly campaigning against Trump’s National Security Advisor, General McMaster. The Donald apparently thrives in this type of adversarial environment as his people fight for his imprimatur. He has, for the moment on Kelly’s say so, backed the General. Meanwhile Trump, in spite of hopes to the contrary in the light of his new Chief of Staff, is tweeting up a storm.

The hope that General Kelly will some how magically change this all is obviously misplaced.  

THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION

All this would not be so serious if there weren’t counter intelligence, criminal and congressional investigations proceeding apace. Republican Congress members are less and less inclined to defend their de facto leader in the light of all that has emerged in relation to Russiagate. And remember they are getting closed door briefings as well. Particularly ominous are the reports of the progress of the FBI counter intelligence and criminal investigations of the Mueller probe which include the establishment of Grand Juries, the acknowledgment that financial matters under purview and document requests from the WhiteHouse. The latest news is the investigation hots up is a raid on former campaign manager Paul Manafort's home. 

 The very fact that there is a determined bipartisan initiative to defy the President and protect the Special Counsel’s enquiry is indicative of the legal jeopardy that Trump and his entourage are exposed to. 

 AT THE END OF THE DAY

This piece began with Trump’s political counter attacks to his legal problems. While his legal team respond conventionally Trump marches to his own drummer. In so doing all bets are off as to the consequences of his actions. The best scenario is that this process is slow, deliberate and transparent. If it is Trump will bleed support as he has done up till now. This outcome will be exacerbated when coal mines do not reopen, wages don’t increase, Obamacare continues and the trillion dollar infrastructure program does not get under way. On the other hand if there are riots in the street at the initiation of impeachment proceedings America will be entering a new phase of anarchy precipitated by a megalomaniac. The Republican Party are beginning to wake up to the monster they have spawned - one can only hope that it is not to late. 

There is a new fear that his gauche handling of the North Korean crisis will result in a nuclear crisis.