TRUMP v DEMOCRACY - HIS ULTIMATE “TURN ON”

Trump has lived on the edge all his life. He thrives on the adrenaline that his confrontations, chaos, incompetence, illegality, lying and harebrained schemes evoke. He enjoys and wallows in the struggle. He is wedded to the uncertainty and like a cat toying with a mouse he is certain that he will be a winner in the end. His biggest “turn on” has been taking  on American Democracy and declaring himself a de facto dictator of the United States. In so doing he hopes to turn a threatening impending defeat into victory. He is attempting to avert disaster in the Russiagate investigation by a broadside of outrageous counter measures. In so doing he risks all in the hope of the ultimate prize, total unquestioned control of America. 

Like in all pursuits for a quick fix for “ultimate happiness” when the goal has been attained the withdrawal sets in and the search is on for a new challenge. The Presidential campaign and the subsequent Presidency has been an orgy for The Donald as he has been in almost status crisisiosus - mostly engineered and inflicted upon him by his good self. Even more significant for the boastful blowhard he has had unprecedented audiences watching his every move. Now he seeks total authority of the management of America without the impediment of an independent justice department. His vision of making America Great Again is to turn it into a Banana Republic.

In terms of his psychodynamics Trump now has created the ultimate challenge - he has taken on the Democracy of the United States of America. He is its CEO and he is about to prove that its laws don’t apply to him. Armed with like thinking lawyers his lifelong modus operandi has not changed - only the stakes have - namely the future of a nation.

TRUMP, JOE MCCARTHY AND COUNSELLOR ROY COHN .

The Donald’s mentor and his chief counsel from the sixties was Roy Cohn. The latter was the lawyer of the infamous persecutor Senator Joe McCarthy. In addition, Cohn’s clients included the Gambinos and he was tremendously influential in political circles. He believed that you never ever admitted any wrongdoing and that the key tactic in any adverse situation was to aggresively counter attack anything and everything that they accused you off. 

McCarthy shook American democracy to it’s foundations by creating a milieu of trial and conviction by insinuation. With his strong arm smearing and bullying tactics he labelled and sentenced alleged Communists, left leaners and liberals as traitors. The rogue Senator ruined many lives in the process and in his wake he ended many a career. McCarthy, like Trump, never backed down and kept upping the ante. After McCarthy was finally derailed, his Svengali, Roy Cohn moved onto a worthy successor, Donald J. Trump. The Donald confided to Tim O’ Brien, the author that penned, Trump Nation: The Art of Being the Donald, “Roy was brutal, but he was a very loyal guy”. That summed up Donald Trump’s own mantra in a sentence - be brutal and demanding of loyalty. 

In many ways Trump is McCarthy written large. McCarthy daily broadcasted unsubstantiated lists of who he alleged were Communists thereby exploiting, in the early fifties, the Cold War fears on the creeping Imperialist rise of the USSR. He would bully and smear opposition with lack of patriotism. Eventually McCarthy was brought down by the system and censored in the Senate by an overwhelming majority. McCarthy’s motive was mainly power. Trump’s alleged motivations, in many ways, are far more sinister. It is accepted that Putin’s Russia, a foreign power, illegally intervened in the USA elections to support his candidacy. The question that now remains is whether he and his campaign colluded in the effort and subsequent to the investigation into the affair did he attempt to obstruct justice.

  TRUMP’S RESPONSE TO “RUSSIAGATE”

The pressure is on in the battle of Trump versus American democracy and Trump has not flinched. The more the disclosures that link Trump and his campaign to Putin oligarchs the more heinous the POTUS responses are. Where others might shrink in the face of damning revelations the Donald has thrived on the sense of shock engendered by the  exposures. In spite of unanimous Intelligence Agency support for an investigation into whether he and his campaign colluded with the Russians he has not only attacked that as a “witch hunt”, he has not even accepted the premise that the Russians intervened. He has as well as attacking the investigations of the Department of Justice and in Congress, obstructed, from the word go, the course of those judicial enquiries. In so doing he has challenged one of the central tenets of American democracy, the independence of the judicial process. More significantly Trump has not disguised his attempts to thwart the judicial process. He has pulled every stratagem in the Cohn book to win the fight. 

TRUMP AFFIRMS HIS SUPPORT FOR RUSSIA 

Trump is so in “your face” on the issue that he has no hesitation in continuing his support of Putin and Russia even though this points further to his culpability. The POTUS has canvassed Congress to lessen sanctions on Russia even though the sentiment in both Houses was to stiffen them in the light of their war like intervention in the US election. He has openly favored Putin over NATO allies in his newly devised foreign policy. Trump has held at least two meetings with Putin where the full content of the discussions was not available to the suspicious American people. He has however, unashamedly, announced that he accepted Putin’s word over seventeen US Intelligence Agencies that he did not hack the US elections. He went one step further by publicly denigrating America’s Intelligence Agencies. So the POTUS rather than distance himself from Russia’s Putin who is accused of treasonous collusion with him in the Presidential election ups the ante by strengthening his relationship with him.

TRUMP OBSTRUCTS THE INVESTIGATION INTO RUSSIAGATE

Trump has done more than make it quite clear that he disapproves of the Russian investigation by actively intervening and issuing endless threats and bullying remarks. He fired the initial leader of the probe James Comey admitting to the Russian Foreign Minister and Ambassador that it was Comey’s role in the inquiry that had prompted his action. Removing Comey, he explained, would relieve pressure. In case the point was missed he repeated his motivation for the move in a TV interview with NBC’s Lester Holt. 

He then repeatedly cast aspersions on the integrity on the new Special Counsel Robert Mueller, a life long Republican, asserting that he was biased as evidenced by the fact that he had appointed staff that were known Democrats. He banally moaned that Mueller’s supervisor, Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein, came from Baltimore where there were very few Republicans. He and the WhiteHouse repeated ad nauseam that Trump had the authority to fire Mueller. The POTUS has threatened Mueller that the Trump finances are out of bounds in his probe. He stated that such enquiries would cross a line…..

The ante was ratcheted up when he unprecedentedly assailed his Attorney General with a bombardment of non stop tweets and in an interview with the New York Times. The POTUS made it clear that his most longstanding loyal minion, Sessions, had been disloyal in that he recused himself from the Russian investigation and therefore was unable to do his bidding. Had he known this he wouldn’t have appointed him! He continued that the “weak” Sessons should be investigating “crooked” Hillary and the leaks. (The reckless Trump cares naught for the implications of using the Justice Department to harass political opponents). The transparent plan is to axe the “beleagured” Jeff Sessions and replace him during a Senate break so that a new Attorney General would not be subject to Senate confirmation. Trump pursues this vendetta daily against the advice of his legal team, aides and a growing number of Republicans including the Head of the Senate Judiciary Committee Chuck Grassley that would have to vet Attorney General nominations . Sessions, Trump is learning, has much more support than was evident to the POTUS. 

New insights were gained into Christopher Wray Trump’s nominee to replace fired FBI Director Comey. Wray, who in his confirmation hearings swore integrity to justice up the ying yang, is being looked at in a new light as a result of Trump opining in his Times interview that the FBI Director should report to the President directly and not to the Department of Justice. Rachel Maddow uncovered that Wray was the disgraced Christie’s lawyer in the BridgeGate scandal and there had been much negative speculation as to his role in that position. Christie had apparently put Wray’s name forward. All this has occasioned a delay in his confirmation as the Democrats are asking for a guarantee that he will not fire Mueller.

This sequence of events adds up to a resounding prima facie case for obstruction of justice.

TRUMP’S ANSWER TO THE PROBLEM - PRESIDENTIAL PARDONS

The Obstruction of Justice charge is easily coupled with an Abuse of Power indictment as The Donald rampages on. Again for all the world to note the pardoning of the dramatis personae in the Russian scandal has been mooted by the President and his legal team. In addition it has been affirmed again and again that it is within the President’s purview to pardon himself. The incongruity of these threats is not apparent to the Presidential tweeter. On the one hand he maintains that he and his campaign staff did nothing wrong with their meetings and contacts with the Russians and on the other he will issue pardons to exonerate.  

What Trump ignores is that the Constitution specifically excludes Impeachment in his pardoning powers but that is a minor detail in his scheme of things.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

* By now all those who believed that The Donald would become Presidential when he assumed the Office have to be disabused of that fantasy. As time proceeds he follows and embellishes the playbook of his mentor Roy Cohn and his most infamous client Joe McCarthy. His legal team are clones of the deceased Counsel who was both “brutal and loyal”. 

* Trump for his part will up the ante and fight to the bitter end. He will confront rather than compromise and negotiate. He is addicted to the high he gets when starting fights which by definition contain a risk of losing. When the political front is relatively quiet he obtains his fix by mercilessly sallying into individuals such as TV or Movie personalities. He sadistically uses his bully pulpit in the true sense of the term to belittle and denigrate those who have had the audacity to oppose him. 

* The fear in all of this is that American Democracy might disintegrate. He hinted during the campaign that the system was rigged and that if he should fail only the Second Amendment People would be able to do anything about it. Trump as President no longer has to tilt at windmills. As Commander in Chief he is head of all the armed forces and if deposed he will call upon the Second Amendment People.

* While the Republican intelligentsia have almost to a man stepped up to the plate in recognizing the danger that Trump represents the leaders in Congress have not as yet accepted their challenge in rescuing the Republic from falling into the abyss. Senate Majority Leader McConnell, whose place in history is already enshrined for his unparliamentary obstructionism in Obama’s Presidency and his disgraceful stealing of a Supreme Court Judgeship from a highly qualified contender, is playing games in the Senate with TrumpCare which seventy percent of the population reject. To quote the former Republican House Speaker, John Boehner Obamacare can never be replaced as the Republican Governors want it. There are no words to describe the spinelessness of House Speaker Paul Ryan who believes a tax cut takes priority over the values this country was founded on. 

* There is, however, a glimmer of hope in that the House of Representatives passed an all embracing sanctions resolution in response to the Russian’s intervention in the 2016 Presidential election by four hundred and nineteen votes to three. This follows on the original Senate resolution which was affirmed by ninety - eight votes to two. The resolution specifically bans the POTUS from modifying the legislation. All this is in the teeth of Trump’s request to lessen existing sanctions. Also there allegedly have been warnings to the WhiteHouse that if he axes Mueller that the consequences could be dire. That wont stop Trump who needs his fix but the fact that the Republicans may act is encouraging. If they don’t act Trump’s inevitable departure will have to wait till 2019 with another two years destruction in the interim.

* The choice is simple - stop Trump or bear witness to the death of democracy.

* Whatever happens this is going to be ugly so fasten your seat belts and prepare for a bumpy ride. 

WIMBLEDON AND FEDERER - NOSTALGIA FOR ANOTHER ERA

This past fortnight saw a welcome return to order, predictability and normality in the form of the annual “All England Lawn Tennis Championships” played at the hallowed “All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club”, as it has been since 1877. It was played on grass - the only grand slam still played on that surface and the dress was all white - the only grand slam where this is still demanded - all as it has been for the past 149 years. The only break was during the second world war when the Nazis mistakenly believed that bombing Center Court would break Churchill and the British people’s resolve. To add to the nostalgia, in a world, which has been taken over by fake news, cynicism and greed, the greatest champion ever, Roger Federer, stamped his class on the event by winning it for a record eighth occasion. This feat after a four year break from the winner’s circle.  Federer is not only the world’s best player ever, he, in the words of John McEnroe, is the greatest gentleman ever to have graced the game. All in all a welcome respite from the gross behavior of celebrities of every endeavor that have been a feature of the second millennium and thereafter. 

Wimbledon is tradition personified. It hails from the glory days of England when Queen Victoria reigned and the sun never set on the British Empire. Unlike most sports stadiums it is owned by an elite club. It stands as a monument to those wonderful days when Britannia ruled the waves and its status is not compromised by the fact that the Island Empire has been relegated to being a third rate world power. 

EVERYONE WHO SHOULD BE THERE IS THERE

It is all so perfect and nice. The ivy which clings to the walls in an arena, which although it has changed over the century and a half of its existence, is still recognizable to those who have worshipped at the shrine for decades. All alterations are tastefully executed so as not to detract from the dignity of the past. It is also comforting to know;  that the ballboys and girls, in navy blue will be regimented and disciplined hurrying to their designated positions and then standing at attention with their hands neatly behind their backs; that the linespeople, dressed in blue and white striped shirts and Wimbledon ties with deerstalkers will remain motionless till they punctuate the hallowed ground with their calls; that the umpire, who dons a jacket and tie as do all the spectator members, will be firm and impartial making his rulings crisply for all to hear while paternalistically tolerating the occasional bad behavior of the gentleman and lady players who are always called Mr. or Miss or Mrs; that the grounds people dressed in green are ever ready to put on the covers should it rain and that the Chelsea War Pensioners in their resplendent red uniforms, who occupy a corner on Center Court, lend color to the proceedings.  

Then there is the royal box where the royalty and other dignitaries including some prestigious club members view the grand old game. Till recently the Queen of England was the patron a position now taken over by her daughter - in - law Kate Middleton aka the Duchess of Cambridge or the wife of Prince William. Kate and her hubby were present at the final as was British Prime Minister Theresa May. There are only three hundred and fifty members of this, the most, prestigious club in the world - who represent exclusivity that money alone cannot buy - breeding and connections still count. There are seventy temporary members which avenue represents the commoner’s best shot of becoming one of the “boys”. But before Jay H. Ell raises your hopes that can only be achieved by winning a Wimbledon Singles Championship or by marrying a Prince as Kate Middleton recently did. The Club itself is the last testament to snobbery. 

The Championships are stage managed in the best heritage of pomp and splendor. From the choreographed walk of the finalists onto the turf,  their bags carried by distinguished looking flunkies, to their coin toss and ritual photograph with the umpire, to the prize giving where the ball boys and girls form a line of honor and dutifully bow or curtsy when introduced to the Duke or Duchess of Kent who dish out the trophies. These customs are repeated year after a year. Then there is the ceremonial walk around by the winner which in recent years has been extended to include the hallowed corridors of the old club with its pictures and memorabilia of championships gone by. The engraving of the winners name on the honors board immediately after the outcome all dutifully recorded for the viewer is a neat touch. It is all so certain in this world of uncertainty - a respite from the humdrum of chaos.

THE GRASS IS GREENER AT WIMBLEDON.

The year prior to the All England Championships is spent tending to the lawns for the tournament - both in repairing and then preparing it. Never a tournament passes without the commentators commenting on the manicured perfection which is mowed and rolled day after each day. There is no play on the first Sunday of the tournament to give the deified grass “a rest”. The two score or so courts are as green, flat and smooth as billiard tables. There is the annual mention by the commentators that the base lines of Center Court and Court One are brown and “beginning to wear” from the two weeks hammering as if it is mandatory to point out that even perfection isn’t quite perfect. 

The faithful are reminded that this Grand Slam is the only one played on grass and that is why it is regarded as the purest test of greatness. It is taken for granted that any and every tennis player if he or she could only win one slam it would be Wimbledon. Ivan Lendl who dominated tennis in the late eighties winning eight Grand Slams, (McEnroe only won seven), ninety - four career titles, being world number one for two hundred and seventy weeks and winning seven end of the year “World Titles”, never won Wimbledon. He tried all he could changing rackets missing a French Open which he had won three times in order to concentrate on the main grass prize. But in spite of two finals and five semi finals in the 1980’s where he was a Wimbledon feature, to his chagrin the main tennis prize alluded him. As a result he is hardly remembered if at all. 

This reverence to grass lawn is quite ironic as the French Open, the only one played on clay, is not given the slightest respect in spite of the uniqueness of its surface. Clay rather than being considered a parameter of tennis strength is considered a bit of an anomaly only to be tolerated because of tradition and as noblesse oblige to the Latin speakers of this world. 

But there is a far deeper significance to the dogged attention and retention of the Lawn at The All England Lawn Tennis Championship as Yuval Harari lays out in his depressing new opus which outlines “A Brief History of Tomorrow”. In Homo Sapiens relentless push for power and prestige the lawn became one of the earliest symbols. The bigger and the neater the lawns, that stretched as far as the eye could see, that adorned the Castles and Chateauxs, the more powerful the owner was believed to be. If the grass became unkempt it was a sign the Lord of the Manor was in financial trouble. All prestigious buildings, since, have their showcase lawns  - from Palaces, to Parliaments while any decent home boasts its turf. Other than in sports stadiums where on the sacred turf many a glorious battle is played out, the general injunction is “keep of the grass”. 

Now lawns in their own right are pretty useless and costly accessories. They produce no agriculture and you cannot graze livestock on them. They are merely expensive adornments and status symbols. It is therefore not surprising that in 1978 the United States Tennis Association, (USTA), that controls the US Open Grand Slam decided to call the labor intensive business of lawn courts a day. In so doing they epitomized the difference between a culture of tradition and one of pragmatism, entrepreneurship and disdain for tradition. The USTA decided to leave the lawn tending to the WhiteHouse. 

FEDERER UBER ALLES

Jay H. Ell in his wallowing in the magic of the past forgot to emphasize the majesty of the present. Whether it be Beethoven or the Beatles, Pele or Messi, Van Gogh or Pollock, Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds, Shakespeare or Hemingway, Wilt Chamberlain or Michael Jordan or Laver or Federer, genius is a thing of beauty to behold. This year Roger Federer affirmed that status by winning two of the Grand Slam Championships he has participated in giving him a record total of nineteen Majors - four ahead of his greatest rival Rafael Nadal, arguably the second greatest tennis player in history. What has made Federer’s achievements so noteworthy has been the rivalry with this dominant competitor who in a different era would have been the undisputed king. All this akin to the comment of Bing Crosby when asked to comment about Frank Sinatra’s voice he replied dolefully -  the greatest ever and my luck to be singing at the same time.

Superlatives in describing Federer in every aspect of his game do not do justice for the man who has now won, at the age of thirty - six,  a record eight Wimbledon Men Single’s titles. His tennis style is literally poetry in motion. The fluidity of his play, his all round game, his temperament, his sportsmanship and his behavior have made him the crowd’s favorite wherever he plays. The husband, the father, the son, the philanthropist and the “mensch” have resulted in him being recognized as a celebrity ambassador to achievement, kindness and citizenship. A conventional role model in this crass day and age.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

So the tennis camps have packed up and are ready to move onto the US open, the final Grand Slam of the year. This will be played at the Billie Jean King Tennis Center, the biggest in the world and will be decided on the unique synthetic deco turf on Arthur Ashe Center Court. The latter was constructed in 1997 at a cost of a quarter billion dollars and replaced the Louis Armstrong Court as the center court. If Wimbledon represents old world class the Ashe stadium serves as a modern day reminder of the Coliseum gladiatorial contests. This year promises to feature Federer and his arch rival Nadal who will continue their over a decade’s  rivalry that has riveted the tennis world. 

Crowds will shout and scream at the participants that are resplendent in garb that is anything but white. Here Federer is equally at home having won five times and as always the favorite of the screaming unruly mob, not one of whom will be wearing a tie and jacket. As always in his acceptance winning speech Federer graciously pays tribute and thanks to the appreciative crowd. The only feature constant between the old and the new world is their worship of genius.  

Form Jay H. Ell’s world he can only hope that the August US Open will do for his battered psyche what Wimbledon did, thereby affording him the opportunity to program out the reality of the world around him for two blessed weeks.

IS THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY HISTORY?

The whole Trump Russian narrative has been conclusively negated by the explosive exposure that his son, his chief advisor and campaign manager colluded with Russia’s interference, in the Presidential election. That added to Trump’s surreal meeting with Putin, which underlined his “inexplicable” preference of Russia over America’s traditional NATO allies and Trump’s slavish obsequious behavior towards mother Russia in canvassing Congress to lessen sanctions has ratcheted the talk of impeachment up several notches. While the latter is unlikely at the moment the additive effect, on the already chaotic Presidency, with the ever growing disclosures of the Trump campaign involvement in the Russian perfidy, will ultimately seal his fate. All this has to have an impact on the Republican Party and the actions of the Vice President.

Historians have an annoying way of analyzing situations when the outcome is already in the books. They explain, paternalistically, that what had transpired was obvious to all but the blind, deaf and ignorant way before the denouement. They identify the “clear” signs that indicated the writing was on the wall. They then detail, with scholastic aplomb, the self evident sequelae of the issue. However, when asked to prognosticate, with the same degree of certainty, on a “current happening” they argue that as there is no precedent they are not able to do so - so let it be with Trump’s Presidency. 

WILL TRUMP LAST?

As Jay H. Ell is not a historian he has nothing to lose by forecasting that The Donald’s reign will be dispatched to the dustbin of history before his term is up. In fact it is on track to being shelved by early 2019. This is brave stuff as there only has been one instance in history where a President didn't see out his term and didn’t leave the WhiteHouse in a casket.  Also The Donald’s personality would not allow him to do the gentleman like thing and resign even if there was no hope that he would be able to continue.  As he cannot be criminally charged or removed by the Party Caucus he would have to be impeached. To do so the Republicans would have to be convinced that hanging onto him is more disastrous than axing him. If they delay their decision then the Democrats should have a healthy majority in the House of Representatives post the November 2018 election and they could proceed. 

THE CHAOS PRESIDENCY

Jed Bush’s prognostication, (he also isn’t an historian), that his would be a chaos Presidency has turned out to be a masterpiece of understatement.  Trump has no credibility whatsoever. (Blog: Trump: The Post Truth President). Over six months into his Presidency only 47 of the 557 key positions of his Administration have been confirmed by the Senate. There are constant battles amongst his staff in his WhiteHouse which leaks like a sieve. The media run inside stories, that are systematically denied by the WhiteHouse spokespeople. Repeatedly it is affirmed that Chief of Staff, Reince Priebus, is about to be axed. Lately there are reports that there is friction between Trump and his son in law Jared Kushner who it is rumored is responsible for revealing the Russian meeting. The latter, it is claimed, is only thinking of his own skin and not his father - in - laws. The communications team, where there is a struggle for ascendancy between Sean Spicer and Sarah Huckabee Sanders, is such a disaster that they now hold their press briefings off camera presumably not to preempt the spoofs of them on Saturday Night Live.

There is a disconnect between Trump and the Republican legislature. He changes position all the time making a commitment to a Trump policy a crap shoot. He is never on the same page for very long and has been AWOL while Senate elder McConnell plods on gamely to put Trumpcare in place. It is obvious that after he first applauded and then called the House of Representative’s version of Trumpcare “mean” that no one needs the President effecting the traditional role of being involved in getting legislation passed. The upshot is that, in spite of his campaign boasting rhetoric the only one meaningful piece of legislation that has crossed his desk involved speeding up the process whereby the Veteran Administration could fire inept employees. The other thirty nine signed pieces of law are all procedural and come nowhere near changing the world as he promised he would do. 

Similarly, he can even leave his own cabinet high and dry. When he came back from the Putin meeting he was punting a combined project on cyber security with the former KGB operative. The initiative was greeted by derision by many in his own party. He quickly backed down but not soon enough to prevent Secretary Minuchin’s full court press on the virtues of Trump’s American/Russian collaboration. Trump is being criticized with monotonous regularity by influential Senators Graham and McCain and there are very few that are prepared to openly and vociferously support him. 

In all this there are Congress Committees working feverishly to get to the bottom of Russiagate. There is bipartisan agreement that the Russian’s hacked the Presidential election to favor Trump and that the investigation by the FBI is not “the greatest political witch hunt ever conducted by the Democratic Party to avenge a loss”. Furthermore the Republican legislators are beginning to hedge their bets and are open to exploring such avenues such as Presidential criminality, obstruction of justice as well as establishing whether or not the Trump campaign colluded or not with Russia. 

Trump in the midst of all this chaos has not changed his modus operandi. He tweets. For three days since returning from the G20 he was totally non communicado having no official engagements. A circumstance which former WhiteHouse staff employees claim to be unheard off. His claim that the first time he learned of his son’s meeting with the Russian operative was when it hit the fan in The New York Times is being laughed out of court. He inanely claimed that his son, Donald J. Trump Jnr., had been transparent in releasing the incriminating e mails omitting the fact that he did so when he learned that they were about to be released by the Times. This too after Junior had changed his story three times on the matter. He even defends Junior for holding the meeting. The absurd POTUS is now claiming that Putin would have preferred Hillary as President!

So it is not unreasonable to argue that at kindest this President is incompetent and has no credibility. He has no natural support or loyalty from the Republicans in Congress who will dump him if it is politically advantageous to do so. Some like Graham will put country first and axe him regardless of the political implications if Muller presents the evidence.

THE REPUBLICANS AND THEIR PARTY.

The differing Republican Party’s factions have become more obvious with the failure to advance the components of the Trump agenda that are in sync with the old conservative party line. It is important to point out that Trump is not a Republican in the traditional sense and his advent and takeover of the Party has added to the woes of those who make up the various wings of the GOP. To complicate matters some of the Establishment like the former Chairman of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, have thrown in their lot with him as have several of the GOP hopefuls in the Primary. Even Mitt Romney, his most articulate detractor, after conducting a last ditch effort to derail his nomination sold his soul in the hope of being nominated as Secretary of State. All these opportunists are in big big trouble in a showdown and will have exiled themselves to political oblivion in a future GOP shake up.

Other than the Trump faction there are the purists or centrists like Ryan and McConnell who still occupy the key leadership positions in Congress. Then there are the left leaning group lead by Susan Collins and the right wing Tea Party crowd such as Cruz in the Senate and The Freedom Party in the House. At present these three factions are battling to pass their versions of Trumpcare and getting nowhere. More significantly their voters are protesting dramatically at their efforts. Most vociferous are those Republicans and their Governors who  don’t want Obamacare removed. Ostensibly there is a big Republican constituency out there that want it “repealed” but they are nowhere in sight. Trump is no help as he is all over the show as usual. He desperately wants a victory but policy wise he really wants an improvement on Obamacare - that is what he promised. 

At the moment all the non Trump factions are under nomination threat or voter threat for their continued existence. The big money Koch’s want a conservative agenda and have allocated four hundred million dollars for the midterms and a pose a threat to non delivering conservative Republicans. The liberal and more middle of the road Republicans are worried that if the current eight percent swing to the Democrats is maintained  they, too, are history. 

WHAT HAPPENS IF SPECIAL COUNSEL MUELLER FINDS PRESIDENTIAL CULPABILITY?

Now throw into the mix a report from Special Counsel Mueller that shows abuse of power and or obstruction of justice by the President with or without collusion by him and his campaign with the Russians in their attack on American democracy. In addition the Mueller investigation is said to be heavily into the finances surrounding Trump and his entourage. What do the legislators do? Jay H. Ell believes if it happened tomorrow they would stick with Trump. The Republican base have not caught up with Russia yet and they are still waiting, like Godot, for Trump to deliver.

Certain factors could change the equation. The longer this drags on and paralyzes all progress the more likely Trump will continue to shed support of the electorate and their legislators. In addition as this scandal evolves and the more the electorate realize that their own representatives have bought into the narrative of the Intelligence Agencies the more likely they will withdraw their support of Trump. Likewise Trump will appear less credible because he would have failed them on reopening the coal mines, increasing wages, producing millions of infrastructure jobs and the like. Specifically, the outcome of the healthcare legislation will impact markedly on the Republican electorate. If the result is not what Trump promised his base he will lose followers regardless of how the other factions of the Party view the legislation.

So a disastrous report from Mueller, even issued before the midterms, on top of the fact that the non delivering Trump is way off line from the Congress consensus on Russiagate, could spell disaster for the POTUS. As each day passes things can only get worse. If a negative report comes after the November 2018 elections Trump would be toast.

VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE

You don’t hear too much if anything from the VP. Apparently he is running around the Party caucuses trying to get stuff done. The fact that Trump schlepps him nowhere and he keeps his distance can only mean one thing - he is trying as far as possible to disassociate himself from the POTUS. He has thus earlier than most staked out his position. In the event that Trump survives he will be looking for another running mate in 2020. Pence, as demonstrated by his lukewarm support of Trump, apparently is prepared to take the risk. That should tell the pundits something. As an aside Pence is so compromised with his early denials that any meetings took place between Trump operatives and Russia that if and when he is fully exposed to the glare of publicity he will not survive. 

 OTHER OUTCOMES

* As intimated earlier on The Donald is not simply going to go away. He will try and rally support from the faithful and say it is all rigged yada yada yada - he is all but saying it already. So the future whichever way it is viewed will be a rocky ride. He won’t be phased by the Republicans turning on him. He will claim that they are all sell outs anyway and part of the swamp. Only he alone stands for the little people.

* Watch out for the big fake news dump on “Crooked” Hillary and “Kenyan” Obama 

* This is the day in history that the Trump Presidency irreversibly went on the skids.

* Then there is always a possibility that the Donald survives and the electorate support his dysfunctional post truth Presidency in perpetuity. If that happens the USA will need two walls, one on each of its borders so as to keep the majority of its citizens from fleeing to Mexico and Canada.  

TRUMP: THE POST TRUTH PRESIDENT.

In the year 2016 the prestigious Oxford Dictionary named “post truth” as the word of the year. They defined it, with consummate British understatement, as “relating to circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”. Donald J. Trump fits the bill even though he has ratcheted up the concept several notches.

There is no precedent for the conduct of the present POTUS. His behavior defies analysis because there is not a single demonstrable consistent strain of honesty, morality and decency in his nature, not to mention that he has no definable or discernible political philosophy or foreign policy. He thrives on his inappropriate behavior repeating and repeating it, more often than not, upping the ante. In every area of conduct he reaches and rereaches a new low. His personal, conventional and legal standards are rock bottom demonstrating the features of a sadistic, racist, narcissistic, bullying and destructive sociopath. He is an unashamed liar - what other President has witnessed a whole front page of a newspaper replete with the lies he has spewed out within less than being six months in office? As an aside his knowledge of American history and civics is so putrid that he would fail the examination immigrants need to take before being admitted as citizens.

So it had to be an environment out of the ordinary that a Trump could emerge as the leader of the American nation, which the Post Truth milieu is.

THE RESPONSE TO THE POST TRUTHER

It is fair to say that his manifestation of toxic attributes have flummoxed conventional critique. Any one of his behaviors would normally have finished a public figure’s career. The tactic The Donald employed seems to be, to follow an outrageous episode with another one immediately thereby not giving the bewildered and shocked fourth estate and public time to fully digest and comment on the first one as they wrestle with the second. 

Commentators have claimed that he is not fit to hold office. His sanity has been questioned. In November a book is out where several mental health care professionals will put forward their arguments as to what makes up his psychopathology. His sycophantic staff have, in their support for him, embellished the Oxford English Dictionary Definition of Post Truth claiming he has “alternative facts”, “the voters knew what they were voting for” or they just follow the teacher and outright back an obvious lie. His fellow Republicans have heaped faint praise on him or rationalized, “He is new at this game of politics”. All that the fourth estate can do is respond by exposing each incident to full public view and reveal more and more about him and his unscrupulous actions. This in the hope that somewhere in the future there is a last straw that will break the camel’s back. (It happened to Senator McCarthy and Richard Nixon they argue.) 

WHAT TRUMPISM MEANS TO GOVERNANCE

From a governing point of view there is nothing that he says or does that means anything. Unlike Alice in Wonderland where words meant what she said they meant, with The Donald, words mean nothing they are meaningless. He may claim that he undyingly supports Medicaid but will go on to support a Bill that axes it. He will then attack the Bill he backed with a celebration at the WhiteHouse, by describing it as being “mean”. He will emphatically state that Obamacare must be repealed and replaced simultaneously and then come out forcefully for first repeal and then replacement. 

There is an overwhelming consensus from the seventeen investigative agencies that Russia perpetrated an act of war by attempting to impact who should govern this country. Rather than reassure the nation that plans are being put in place to prevent a recurrence he challenges these well founded findings as “fake news” and a “Democratic sideshow to excuse themselves from losing an election they should have won”. He riles up the mob attacking the media and even tweeting wrestling with them. 

There is a strong prima facie case that his campaign colluded with the Russians to which case he responded by firing the principal investigator. In the teeth of all the latter he meets with the Russian Ambassador confides in him that now that he has axed the “nut job” who was investigating the Russian thing and this will make their relationship easier. To add insult to injury he then blurts out highly classified information to the Russians putting our ally's operatives, that provided the sensitive data, at risk. 

For the first time Jay H. Ell actually is fearful as to what he might say and do with Putin at the G20 Meeting. It is on the street that he has had no briefings for this important meeting. He is going to wing it. As per usual no one has any idea as to what he is going to say and neither, probably, has he. Will he defy Cabinet Members as he did at the NATO Heads Meeting when he pointedly omitted to reassure our allies that he would come to their aid if attacked - the basis of maintaining the post war peace?  Will he announce a new detente with Russia as thanks for their act of war or will he if Putin looks at him wrong, attack him? 

The even more fearful reality is that this unstable man is entrusted with the keys to the nuclear arsenal. 

He can however claim one major foreign policy achievement - he has in six short months relegated America from being the most influential country in the world to sixth place behind China, Russia, India, Germany and France. From America First to America Sixth! (The good news is that America is ahead of Great Britain which also has an acute case of Post Truthitis). 

HOW DID TRUMP GET TO THE TOP? - THE POST TRUTH ERA

The miracle in all of this is that how did this aberration become President in the first place? How did he float to the top like scum on the waves. In the first place his survival, let alone success, in business is a condemnation of American business practices and the legal system. Six bankruptcies, refusing to pay scores of workers, suing or threatening to sue anyone who looked like crossing him and practicing fraud and deceit was not enough to halt him. An egregious example of his practices was played out in front of the electorate’s very eyes when his defrauding of hundreds of students with his “fake” Trump University was litigated. Inter alia he claimed the Judge was biased against him because he was of Mexican lineage and that he never settled litigation. He then settled the case for $25 million and claimed victory.

The answer to Trump’s emergence is that we are in the Post Truth era where emotions and beliefs triumph facts.

The Post Truth era is characterized by an abandonment of values, morality and accountability. There is a scapegoating of the other. There is a crying of victimhood. The only virtues are profiting and winning. Corporations who dominate the world economy are not interested in the constituencies of their employees, society and nation but rather quarterly profits. Rather than employ more workers and expand the company they buy back shares inflating their own and shareholders wealth. Wages haven’t risen in decades. High paying jobs have been lost, either through automation, progress or outsourcing. Healthcare costs are going through the roof. Student debt is humungous as College fees have risen unbelievably. There is a drug epidemic as society self medicates itself out of despair. The disparity between rich and poor has expanded exponentially. The Walton family who own Walmart have more wealth than the lowest forty percent of the population. 

In all this the conventional politicians have not done much to alleviate the situation. Some are portrayed as aiding and abetting the plutocrats and the oligarchs. It is the same old same old. They are all are said to promise everything but deliver nothing. Washington is a swamp of self serving fat cats. They legislate for the rich to keep their wealth. 

SO ENTER TRUMP THE SAVIOR

In this milieu the slickest salesman in the world emerges and promises the world. Enough people believe him and they unleash the monster. He lies that he is a self made billionaire. He argues he is a blue collar billionaire. He understands the people. He will make the corporations bring back jobs and the money they have stashed oversea, spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure, open the coal mines, give healthcare for everyone and get rid of the disastrous Obamacare, axe the Trade Deals, put America First, cut taxes for everyone and on and on.

The mantra continues. America is being taken for a sucker. The Muslims all of them are out to kill us, the illegal Latino immigrants are stealing our jobs and undercutting us while raping our daughters and robbing us blind. He will keep the Muslims out and chuck the Latinos out  He will Make America Great Again - code for Make America White Again. 

He tells the Conservative Evangelicals that he is their Jesus candidate and he has redeemed himself. He will deliver them an anti abortion judge. He says that in this country under his rule they can get back into politics and people will be allowed to say Merry Xmas again. He tells the law and order people he is their law and order candidate. These are two constituencies that he just may not renege on.

He declares war on the media which cover him almost exclusively, to the ching ching of ratings through the sky. So in the Primaries he demolishes an army of the Republican Swamp. He takes up all the oxygen and no one else gets a look in. The media try and expose him when a Trump Presidency becomes a possibility. But it is too late. He attacks them as Fake News -. they lie, they are politically correct, they are in cahoots with crooked Hillary and the Establishment.   He confides that the system is rigged against him as it is against his beautiful people. He uses his history with wrestling promotion to work up the crowd just short of real violence. Trump is strong. He is tough. He is one of them. He tells it how it is.

His adoring hysterical stadiums of tens of thousands are only too agreeable that the media lie as do all his opponents - facts are not facts anymore its how you feel. (It is futile to point out that he has claimed that his majority was the largest in history, that Hillary obtained three million votes more than him as a result of voter fraud and that his inauguration was attended by the largest crowd ever). Crooked Hillary is protected by the Fake News. They are all against him as they are all against his people…..

They are the true believers and deliverers of Trump in the Post Truth World.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

* The America system is durable but it is being tested to the core. If the checks and balances got rid of Nixon, who was a choirboy compared to Trump, there must be hope that the present POTUS will go too. 

* It must, however, be realized that Trump didn’t emerge in a vacuum. The fact that he was far more corrupt than those he was attacking was deemed irrelevant. He was attacking, with some truth, the system that they thought was fat and wracked with cronyism and corruption. He was advocating paradigm change via a virulent form of populism. The last century saw three examples of how dangerous and malevolent these demagogues can be - Hitler, Stalin and Tojo. Others populists once in power became totalitarian but at least didn’t commit mass murder. None are accredited with having done more good then harm.

* To prevent and hopefully reverse Trumpism in the age of the Post Truth society, society has to once again embrace a value system and morality where the neighbor and the stranger are cared for. The underdog needs to be reassured that she has not been forgotten. Also the spoils of society need to be shared. CEO’s with compliant well paid boards need to stop voting themselves salaries over a thousand times more than their lowest paid worker. Governments have to once again become more caring of those less fortunate. 

* It is blasphemous Jay H. Ell supposes, even in these circumstances, on July 4, to quip - “Come back King George all is forgiven”.

* They say that President Washington couldn’t tell a lie, President Nixon couldn’t tell a truth and President Trump couldn’t tell the difference.