The Georgia and South Carolina bye elections have induced deep depression amongst the Democrats and euphoria amongst Trump and the Republicans. They are all apparently caught up in the media hype and not analyzing the outcomes objectively and dispassionately. The pundits are claiming that the results are indicative of the Democrats being directionless and off message and that the Republicans and their President are still in control. All this rate grabbing hysteria does not jive with the facts.
THE DEMOCRATS
Even though the Democrats slashed Republican Majorities in the districts Georgia 6, (from 24% to 5%) and South Carolina 5, (from 21% to 3%), there is a let down feeling in the Democratic camp. The Dems had hoped to win Georgia. However it stands to reason that the trend which started in Kansas and Montana where the Republican majorities were decreased by over fifteen percent has been maintained. Within seven months of the 2017 election the Democrats have made great strides. From an emotional point of view it is a let down to be 0 for 4 with the Republicans and their President who is in total disarray but from a statistical point of view these results put seventy - one Republican seats in play - far more than the twenty -four the Dems need to control the House. The recognized pollsters FiveThirtyEight believe that between sixty to eighty seats could be marginal if these trends hold.
The critics have argued that the reason the Democrats have lost these four elections is that they have no message, that they need to get rid of Nancy Pelosi, they are missing Bernie Sanders and they just ran on an anti Trump message. This is not simply true, Jon Ossoff in Georgia was criticized for almost ignoring Trump, for example. There is little doubt that the Dems need to sharpen their message. They have gained much traction with the argument, for example, equating Trumpcare with a loss of healthcare for twenty three million Americans to provide a tax cut for the rich. They want to “fix” Obamacare instead.
There are several take home points from the Georgia election which the Democrats believed they could win as it was a Metro area where the suburban Republicans have their highest distaste for Trump. The crisp point is that five months after a disastrous Presidency where his approval rating is at thirty five percent, while the Republican voters of Georgia may disapprove of Trump they still not have deserted the Republican Party to the extent that the Democrats could overcome a twenty - four percent majority attained about six months ago.
THE REPUBLICANS
What Georgia and the other bye election results will do, rightly or wrongly, is give the Republicans in Congress courage to go ahead, confidently, with an attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare. They are also imbuing them with a feeling of false security. More importantly for Trump is they will tread carefully with regard to his leadership of the nation.They are all, too patiently, waiting for the situation where they are sure that the faithful have holus bolus abandoned him. Trump, himself is doing a tweet victory lap. The Republicans would do well to reflect on the bye election results and even more significantly as to how they are going to cope with the Presidential albatross around their necks.
Ironically, the Republican performance is being hailed by their supporters and the media. Trump himself is being attributed with being a political strategist extraordinaire. He, in the teeth of all the naysayers simply serves up circuses to his base which apparently is all that he and the GOP need to run the country.
THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION
Another reality is that the Mueller investigation proceeds apace. He has added crack lawyers to his investigating team that are experts in finance, obstruction of justice and intelligence. He is meeting in earnest with Congress investigation committees in order to coordinate his probe with theirs. More and more of the Trump inner circle in addition to Trump himself are “lawyering up”. The dramatis personae include his consiglieri, his son in law Jared Kuschner, Vice President, Mike Pence and Attorney General Jeff Sessons. This shows an awareness by those in the know of the seriousness of Trump and his entourage’s predicament.
As Jay H. Ell has blogged again and again the investigative process is very early in the day in relationship to a possible impeachment. These investigations are inevitably of long duration and the removal of Trump will not happen unless there is overwhelming public support for it. Moreover impeachment which is Trump’s biggest fear is a political process never historically ever been initiated by the President’s own Party. The Georgia bye election has given Trump even more confidence to carry on like he is untouchable. This should come as no surprise as the POTUS functions in his own bizarre reality.
A COMPARISON WITH WATERGATE.
Watergate is the impeachment proceedings that everyone is likening to Trump’s dilemma. In that scandal Congress was driven to act by public disapproval and disgust at the President. The Clinton example just does not fit. There a Special Prosecutor presented a referral that had nothing to do with public policy and administration but rather personal behavior that had nothing to do with the reason for the investigation. The impeachment process was initiated in the teeth of Clinton’s climbing popularity and the GOP dropped serious prosecution of the proceedings like a hot political potato in the Senate.
Trumpgate is Watergate on steroids. Trump has been in office five months. Nixon was in office for over two years after the Watergate break in before impeachment proceedings began. Six months after the break in, with Watergate in the news, Nixon was reelected President for his second term with an overwhelming majority. His approval rating soared to nearly seventy percent at inauguration. Thereafter it was the steady drip of investigation, firing of investigators, resignations and firing of his administration, adverse court decisions and the like that soured public opinion against him. His bipartisan impeachment followed by the Republicanan leadership forcing his resignation transpired when his approval rating was twenty - four percent. In the midterms that followed the Republicans lost seventy House seats.
The Donald in a short five months has seen his approval rating drop from near fifty percent to the mid thirties. ( It took Nixon eighteen months to drop to that level). The Donald has fired investigators, Sally Yates and James Comey, he has “let go” Campaign Managers and fired his National Security Advisor who like John Dean in the Nixon Administration is allegedly already cooperating with the prosecution. Unlike Nixon, who played his cards very close to his chest, the POTUS has almost daily shot himself in the foot with admissions that must make his legal team cringe.
One final point. While both Watergate and Trumpgate both involve trying to give the Republican nominee an illegal advantage in a Presidential election, the former was a homegrown effort while the latter is as a result of interference by a foreign adversarial power. While Watergate was criminal, Trumpgate, if collusion can be proved, is treasonous. This fact has angered many Republicans from the get go. Trump, by denying what the intelligence agencies agree on, namely that the hacking was effected by the Russians for his advantage, has infuriated several of those GOP Congressmen, who would under normal circumstances, understandably, defend their leader till the case was all but proved.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The Donald’s public approval rating is dropping daily, the Republicans are poised to lose the House if the present trend continues. All this while the investigations as well as public disclosures are proceeding apace. In this milieu if Special Counsel Mueller finds enough incriminating evidence in any of the areas of colluding with the Russians, abuse of power, financial malfeasance or obstruction of justice, he is in deep trouble.
The Democrats could well sharpen their strategy but need not get to depressed about the outcome of the bye elections. In addition they have to relook at the House leadership.
The Republicans need to look further than their noses. They are dead set on enacting unpopular legislation. They are hanging on to a loser. The Party is split in several directions and is destined for disaster unless they dump Trump and commit themselves to their policy of fiscal conservatism and social justice and take their lumps for the moment. History has shown political fortunes change all the time and if they play it right they can regain respectability.
All this is about to be forgotten as Mitch McConnell plunges his party and the Congress into chaos as he unleashes his secret Trumpcare.
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