TRUMP, HEALTH CARE AND THE GOP

The rubber has finally hit the road with the introduction of the Senate Republican attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare. The action has strained the fragile links that hold the Republican Party together. Healthcare is a confluence of controversies, unadulterated politics, societal values, money - not to mention that it is the central caring service of society. The solution to the delivery of healthcare has challenged the unique blend of free market and liberal culture of America for decades. Once again it has presented itself for a conclusive fix in the Senate of the United States of America. 

For the moment the Republican Establishment’s effort to assert the traditional Republican principles of “small government” and “market forces to regulate prices rather than deliver services by entitlements” has been stalled. Ironically, these are no longer the central tenets of the Republican base, certainly not of those of the Trump voters. What has happened and what is happening in the GOP Caucus, behind closed doors, is the battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party.

THE REPUBLICAN MOVERS AND SHAKERS

The central dramatis personae in this current denouement are all Republicans - President Trump, Mitch McConnell, Senate leader and Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House of Representatives. All of them share, for a host of reasons, only one overriding objective - repeal and replace Obamacare. The chief political motivation is to rid the American scene of anything Obama. It has become patently obvious that the mantra relating to Obamacare is not backed by any workable solution to the problem that eats up one in every six dollars in the American economy.

Ryan represents the purist philosophy of a conservative fiscal market based economy which simplistically maintains that healthcare is not a right and how much it costs is predominately a function of market forces. The President has staked, for what it is worth, a position that is at variance with Republican fiscal conservatism. He punted again and again on the campaign trail that he, “unlike other Republican candidates”, regarded Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security as sacred. Again and again Trump, reading the Republican base better than the professionals and promised health care for all at lower cost. He has attacked Paul Ryan’s bill on Trumpcare as “mean”. (However, to put it kindly the POTUS is not reliable and will declare victory if the Republicans present him with any bill to sign into law that rids the country of the “disastrous Obamacare”). McConnell, a highly skilled politician, has the burden to deliver for the purist Republican philosophy. He has the arduous task of melding the disparate factions of the Republic Party which are represented by Rand Paul, who believes any government intervention in anything is evil and the moderate Susan Collins. Mercifully in the Senate there are a number of Republicans who oppose placing health care of the whole population to the mercies of the market place. While fortuitously for the Democrats they join the purist Paul faction who argue that McConnell’s version of Trumpcare is not pure enough, thereby making the objective of fifty votes an impossible challenge. For the Republican traditionalists there is the reality of the revolt amongst the body politic, including Republicans, who want their healthcare. 

HEALTHCARE: SOCIETAL SERVICE VS MARKET 

The noble profession of ministering to the sick and the vulnerable swallows up three trillion of the eighteen trillion dollars spent in the USA. The dilemma uniquely facing the United States of America is that while it spends more, by far, than any other nation in the world on health, it falls far short of providing care for all its citizens. Even more galling is the fact that their health care parameters such as neonatal mortality and longevity are way behind nations who spend a fraction on medical services. While it is fair to say that America is in the forefront of medical innovation the high cost renders the advances inaccessible to many.

Putting this matter in an economic/political context, America is wrestling with the problem of providing a solution to an essential benefit via the market place.  Nothing more has epitomized the incongruity between the market economy and caring for society than the fact that the commonest reason for bankruptcy in America is failure to pay medical bills. While Obamacare made a sizable dent in the coverage of citizens bereft of medical coverage it didn’t comprehensively address all the financial and many other problems that beset the endeavor of caring for the nation’s people. Even with Obamacare, copays and high payments before insurance kicks in are a central concern of a small section of the electorate.

So with an aging population, the humongous cost of health care as compared to other Western nations and the advances in medicine the American Congress once again takes up the issue.

STATUS QUO

While Obamacare has its problems and its introduction was unpopular it has after nearly seven years taken hold. These problems have been exacerbated by the uncertainty of the future. Insurance companies are loathe to put out programs if there is doubt if they will be funded. Trump particularly has dwelt on this fact shouting from the rooftops that  Obamacare has failed. He conveniently ignores the fact that he more than anyone else is flaming the fires of its destruction. The POTUS believes that if Obamacare collapses with his help, the body politic will blame Obama rather than the Republicans who control Congress and the Presidency for their lack of health care. McConnell knows better - Obama is in Indonesia and Trump is in the WhiteHouse. 

 There is overwhelming support for Obama’s Affordable Health Care Act at the moment. Polls show that over sixty percent favour its retention and less than forty percent support its repeal. Other public assessments show that Obamacare is favored over Trumpcare by two to one. In fact in several constituencies the Republicans were hammered at Town Halls for their support of repeal and replace Obamacare. In fact the latest survey shows only a seventeen percent support for McConnell’s version of Trumpcare.

Over twenty million more Americans are said to now have medical insurance and no -one can be denied coverage on the basis of pre existing conditions. Obamacare has resulted in the expansion of Medicaid which now serves seventy -five million souls. Half the births in the USA are covered by that agency while the elderly account for forty percent of its funds as it covers nursing home care for the indigent. This is what the Republicans are threatening to disrupt. The new Trumpcare will by contrast deprive twenty two million citizens of medical care.

Obama’s legislation was funded to a large extent by a tax on the top one percent of earners in the USA. Crucial to Trump’s new tax plan is that he needs to release that money. The reason for the urgency of repealing and replacing Obamacare is to make his tax plan viable. It is not for nothing that the central thrust of the Democratic attack is that the Republicans want to take away health care from the poor in order to deliver a tax break for the rich.

WHAT NOW?

• It ain’t ever over till the fat lady sings and McConnell will do all in his power to try and get the fifty votes needed to pass his bill. It is a heavy scene as nine of his caucus have publicly announced that they are against Trumpcare. The reports are that the number that would have voted against the bill had it come to the floor would have been far higher. According to the Washington Post only sixteen of the fifty- two Republicans were thought to be leaning to vote for the Bill. In fact only six Republican Senators publicly committed to vote pro. None of this will deter McConnell from trying.

* It is interesting to note that the moderates are not appealing to the President who is ostensibly on their side to save his bill. Rather from Lindsey Graham, to John McCain and Susan Collins there is a call for cooperation with the Democrats to pass a healthcare bill.

* If all else fails the Republicans it would be prudent for them to reassure the jittery insurance companies and see to it that Obamacare doesn’t collapse thereby throwing the care of Americans into crisis mode.

* The key Republican financial backers lead by the Koch brothers are still committed to purist Republican principles. At a gathering this last weekend, attended by the true believers such as Ted Cruz, the brothers resolved to punish those Republicans who did not back axing Obamacare. They have endless sums of money and were floating spending four hundred million dollars on Republican Primaries and the 2018 midterm elections.

* At the end of the day the Health Care issue has resulted in the Republican Party splintering into factions. There are the traditional purists and then there are those who are modifying the traditional exclusive market approach to deal with all issues. For years there have been modifications to this approach. For a large part of the twentieth century, when the capitalist approach did not concentrate all the resources into the one percenters there was enough to go around for a large middle class to cope. This especially so as the population was younger and their employers, by and large subsidized their health care. 

* Wealth is now concentrated in the one percenters, the middle class has shrunk and a far greater section of the aging society needs social welfare. In short the contract that the employers had with the workers which made American capitalism beneficial for the whole society is broken. Business which used to take its social responsibility seriously has abandoned this role for pure profit. In addition far fewer of the population have jobs that afford them medical coverage. (Robert Reich in his latest book “Saving Capitalism” has clearly documented this process.) 

Society has moved to a consensus that wasn't even evident in the Clinton Presidency thirty years ago. It is now accepted that all citizens are entitled to health care and this is a responsibility of government. Trump connected with that consciousness and that was one of the reasons that he won the Republican nomination and then the Presidency. (Not that Trump really gives a hoot as to what appears in the final Bill as long as it gets rid of the “disastrous Obamacare”).

Any of the needed paradigm changes to the profitable health care industry requires a bipartisan effort to disrupt the stranglehold that that industry enjoys over Congress. The industry employs  2354 lobbyists - over five for each member of the legislature. The bill spent for the lobbying endeavor, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, is over a one hundred and fifty million dollars per annum. Only one of the constituencies that make up this cabal is now four square behind reform and that is the medical profession. The latter, particularly the American Medical Association, have abandoned their trade union protectionist role, serving only their members, in the interests of equity.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

* All this begs the fact that the delivery and the business of medicine is still based on market economy principles. The cost to the consumer is far higher than any other country. What health care executives earn even in local operations, whether they are hospital CEOS or Pharmaceutical Executives is obscene. America spends three trillion dollars a year on health care of which nearly a trillion goes to the administration of the endeavor. A paradigm change is needed in the education of health care professionals, the administration of health care including the introduction of a single payor system, the legal system that dictates that doctors practice costly medicine to avoid litigation and in the regulations that govern the heath care endeavor. 

* Between Trump and Healthcare this may be the beginning of the split of the Republican Party. The 2018 midterm elections may force the Republican Party to splinter and as matters stand the GOP are heading for a beating. 

* There will have to be a bipartisan solution to this crisis. This is most likely to occur after the 2018 elections.

* Historians will reflect how on earth a society which thrives on competition and the “free market” afforded one commodity, healthcare, a virtual monopoly and sat and watched while costs and profits soared while the country’s citizens suffered.

THE TRUMP BYE ELECTIONS MYTHS

The Georgia and South Carolina bye elections have induced deep depression amongst the Democrats and euphoria amongst Trump and the Republicans. They are all apparently caught up in the media hype and not analyzing the outcomes objectively and dispassionately.  The pundits are claiming that the results are indicative of the Democrats being directionless and off message and that the Republicans and their President are still in control. All this rate grabbing hysteria does not jive with the facts.

THE DEMOCRATS 

Even though the Democrats slashed Republican Majorities in the districts Georgia 6, (from 24% to 5%) and South Carolina 5, (from 21% to 3%), there is a let down feeling in the Democratic camp. The Dems had hoped to win Georgia. However it stands to reason that the trend which started in Kansas and Montana where the Republican majorities were decreased by over fifteen percent has been maintained. Within seven months of the 2017 election the Democrats have made great strides. From an emotional point of view it is a let down to be 0 for 4 with the Republicans and their President who is in total disarray but from a statistical point of view these results put seventy - one Republican seats in play - far more than the twenty -four the Dems need to control the House.  The recognized pollsters FiveThirtyEight believe that between sixty to eighty seats could be marginal if these trends hold.

The critics have argued that the reason the Democrats  have lost these four elections is that they have no message, that they need to get rid of Nancy Pelosi, they are missing Bernie Sanders and they just ran on an anti Trump message. This is not simply true, Jon Ossoff in Georgia was criticized for almost ignoring Trump, for example. There is little doubt that the Dems need to sharpen their message. They have gained much traction with the argument, for example, equating Trumpcare with a loss of healthcare for twenty three million Americans to provide a tax cut for the rich. They want to “fix” Obamacare instead.

There are several take home points from the Georgia election which the Democrats believed they could win as it was a Metro area where the suburban Republicans have their highest distaste for Trump. The crisp point is that five months after a disastrous Presidency where his approval rating is at thirty five percent, while the Republican voters of Georgia may disapprove of Trump they still not have deserted the Republican Party to the extent that the Democrats could overcome a twenty - four percent majority attained about six months ago. 

THE REPUBLICANS

What Georgia and the other bye election results will do, rightly or wrongly, is give the Republicans in Congress courage to go ahead, confidently, with an attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare. They are also imbuing them with a feeling of false security. More importantly for Trump is they will tread carefully with regard to his leadership of the nation.They are all, too patiently, waiting for the situation where they are sure that the faithful have holus bolus abandoned him. Trump, himself is doing a tweet victory lap. The Republicans would do well to reflect on the bye election results and even more significantly as to how they are going to cope with the Presidential albatross around their necks. 

Ironically, the Republican performance is being hailed by their supporters and the media. Trump himself is being attributed with being a political strategist extraordinaire. He, in the teeth of all the naysayers simply serves up circuses to his base which apparently is all that he and the GOP need to run the country.

THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION

Another reality is that the Mueller investigation proceeds apace. He has added crack lawyers to his investigating team that are experts in finance, obstruction of justice and intelligence. He is meeting in earnest with Congress investigation committees in order to coordinate his probe with theirs. More and more of the Trump inner circle in addition to Trump himself are “lawyering up”. The dramatis personae include his consiglieri, his son in law Jared Kuschner, Vice President, Mike Pence and Attorney General Jeff Sessons. This shows an awareness by those in the know of the seriousness of Trump and his entourage’s  predicament.

As Jay H. Ell has blogged again and again the investigative process is very early in the day in relationship to a possible impeachment. These investigations are inevitably of long duration and the removal of Trump will not happen unless there is overwhelming public support for it. Moreover impeachment which is Trump’s biggest fear is a political process never historically ever been initiated by the President’s own Party. The Georgia bye election has given Trump even more confidence to carry on like he is untouchable. This should come as no surprise as the POTUS functions in his own bizarre reality.

A COMPARISON WITH WATERGATE.

Watergate is the impeachment proceedings that everyone is likening to Trump’s dilemma. In that scandal Congress was driven to act by public disapproval and disgust at the President. The Clinton example just does not fit. There a Special Prosecutor presented a referral that had nothing to do with public policy and administration but rather personal behavior that had nothing to do with the reason for the investigation. The impeachment process was initiated in the teeth of Clinton’s climbing popularity and the GOP dropped serious prosecution of the proceedings like a hot political potato in the Senate. 

Trumpgate is Watergate on steroids. Trump has been in office five months. Nixon was in office for over two years after the Watergate break in before impeachment proceedings began. Six months after the break in, with Watergate in the news, Nixon was reelected President for his second term with an overwhelming majority.  His approval rating soared to nearly seventy percent at inauguration. Thereafter it was the steady drip of investigation, firing of investigators, resignations and firing of his administration, adverse court decisions and the like that soured public opinion against him. His bipartisan impeachment followed by the Republicanan leadership forcing his resignation transpired when his approval rating was twenty - four percent. In the midterms that followed the Republicans lost seventy House seats.

The Donald in a short five months has seen his approval rating drop from near fifty percent to the mid thirties. ( It took Nixon eighteen months to drop to that level). The Donald has fired investigators, Sally Yates and James Comey, he has “let go” Campaign Managers and fired his National Security Advisor who like John Dean in the Nixon Administration is allegedly already cooperating with the prosecution. Unlike Nixon, who played his cards very close to his chest, the POTUS has almost daily shot himself in the foot with admissions that must make his legal team cringe.

One final point. While both Watergate and Trumpgate both involve trying to give the  Republican nominee an illegal advantage in a Presidential election, the former was a homegrown effort while the latter is as a result of interference by a foreign adversarial power. While Watergate was criminal, Trumpgate, if collusion can be proved, is treasonous. This fact has angered many Republicans from the get go. Trump, by denying what the intelligence agencies agree on, namely that the hacking was effected by the Russians for his advantage, has infuriated several of those  GOP Congressmen, who would under normal circumstances, understandably, defend their leader till the case was all but proved.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Donald’s public approval rating is dropping daily, the Republicans are poised to lose the House if the present trend continues. All this while the investigations as well as public disclosures are proceeding apace. In this milieu if Special Counsel Mueller finds enough incriminating evidence in any of the areas of colluding with the Russians, abuse of power, financial malfeasance or obstruction of justice, he is in deep trouble.

The Democrats could well sharpen their strategy but need not get to depressed about the outcome of the bye elections. In addition they have to relook at the House leadership. 

The Republicans need to look further than their noses. They are dead set on enacting unpopular legislation. They are hanging on to a loser. The Party is split in several directions and is destined for disaster unless they dump Trump and commit themselves to their policy of fiscal conservatism and social justice and take their lumps for the moment. History has shown political fortunes change all the time and if they play it right they can regain respectability.

All this is about to be forgotten as Mitch McConnell plunges his party and the Congress into chaos as he unleashes his secret Trumpcare.

WILL TRUMP FIRE MUELLER?

To date there is nothing in the behavior of Donald J. Trump that would suggest that he won’t fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. To date the only behaviors he has manifested are narcissism, lying, self aggrandizement, low frustration tolerance, bullying, hubris, inability to listen and strategize or foresee long term consequences of his actions. Self advancement and preservation are key at any price. While Mr. Trump may have had some success as an entrepreneur and an entertainer his personality and actions spell self destruction for a President who is subject to checks and balances. 

Why should he hold back just because he is being counseled that firing Mueller is counterproductive, politically suicidal and could throw the country into a constitutional crisis? He was similarly advised in connection with FBI Director Comey but still went ahead. He concocted an elaborate cover up as to why Comey was let go then arrogantly countered his own narrative, both on national television and ironically to the Russian Foreign Minister, by admitting that the motive was the Russian investigation. 

MUELLER’S DECISION SHOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE.

Mueller’s decision should not come as a surprise as the hearings in Congress laid out the prima facie case for the investigation. Trump, in the teeth of bipartisan hearings, that had accepted the grave consequences of the unanimous intelligence assessment that the Russians had attempted to interfere in the American elections in his favor, consistently challenged that finding, still labelling it a “phony story”. He persistently smeared the investigation as a witch hunt cooked up by the Democrats. He publicly minimized suspicious and hidden contacts that his campaign operatives had had with the Russians. He then sought to protect his National Security Advisor Michael Flynn despite a spate of warnings including those from the outgoing President and the FBI. 

In short, for whatever reason, the POTUS sought to downplay what any responsible citizen interpreted as war like behavior of a regime that has been in conflict with America for decades and is currently being sanctioned by the United States. In so doing the President unambiguously signaled that he wanted the probe stopped. He then fired Comey to effect its termination.

What followed was Comey’s credible detailed laying out of a case of obstruction of justice. Trump’s pressure was unprecedented, ongoing and prolonged over four months. Most significantly in Comey’s story there were ample leads for corroboration - those that he had contemporaneously shared the events with as well as those were cleared from a room so that the President could speak privately to the former FBI Director. 

Then there were the appearances at the Senate Intelligence Hearing of Director of National Intelligence, Coates and Director of the National Security, Rogers both of whom who refused to answer the question as to whether they had been asked to intervene in stopping the Russian scrutiny. It had been reported that the Directors had been approached by Trump. They are some of those on Mueller’s list to be interviewed. It is also fair to say that Attorney General Sessons in his appearance at the investigative hearing did nothing to help the Trump cause.

It has subsequently been learned that Comey’s firing, per se, prompted the opening of an obstruction of justice investigation long before the evidence produced at the hearings and Mueller’s appointment. 

TRUMP IS WARNED NOT TO FIRE MUELLER

Now Trump’s close friend, Christopher Ruddy of Newsmax has already floated that the POTUS was considering firing Mueller. This was before the Post’s story broke as was a Whitehouse press briefing where Sarah Huckabee Sanders maintained that although Trump had the right to fire Mueller he was not going to. So even before the report of Mueller’s expansion of his investigation it was reported that Trump had been persuaded to hold back on axing the Special Counsel.

In the wake of all of this it has been telegraphed to Trump to lay off Mueller. Both the Republican leaders of the House and Senate have broadcast loud and clear their faith and support of the Special Counsel. The Congressional hearings have revved up members to the extent that the Senate voted ninety seven to two to increase sanctions on Russia as a result of their interference into American democracy. In short order Trump will be asked to sign or veto legislation increasing sanctions on his newest best friend. 

Trump cannot fire Mueller directly he has to instruct the Department of Justice to do the dirty. The head of that department is Attorney General Sessons who has testified that he could not do that as he has recused himself from the Russian investigation. That leaves Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein who would be seconded to let go Special Counsel Mueller. He too however has given evidence to the Senate Intelligence Committee that there is no way he would comply. The Donald would have to find some one in that Department to do his bidding and no doubt he will.

So getting rid of Mueller will be a messy and lonely business. 

TRUMP’S RESPONSE IS NO SURPRISE EITHER

Predictably Trump’s lawyer lashed out at the Washington Post that reported Mueller’s widening of his Russian enquiry to include evaluating whether the President has obstructed justice. Trump’s legal counsel followed the well worn path that the issue was not Trump’s situation but rather the “illegal” leaking of it. He served notice that Trump was going to turn this into a fight against the FBI. Trump when he finds himself in a corner doubles the anti and lashes out at his “attackers”. 

So the fact that he is going to be on his own if he fires Mueller would not deter The Donald from doing just that. He enjoys the victim role and he has boasted for years now that he walks on water. He can take them all on like he has done all along - Republicans and Democrats alike. His loyal mob will be behind him. Those Republicans who cross him will bear the consequences at the polls, he fantasizes. As he said from the word go, the system is rigged against those not part of the swamp and he is the people’s candidate. He has maintained that the intelligence agencies are controlled by Obama and sour grapes Clinton who lost an election, “that everyone said she should have won”. One fact is for sure Trump will not leave quietly, “believe me”. He will bring down the house with him. 

Ironically, if he hangs in there and assists Mueller in every way with his investigation he still has a chance to survive. It still needs to be proved that Trump acted with corrupt intent. If he behaves the Republican House Majority could vote against a referral by the Special Counsel to impeach him. It needs no reminding that no President has been impeached when his own Party was in the majority. It is hard to see Trump playing it out that way. If there is one certainty it is that a characteristic of the POTUS”S personality is that he does not learn from past behavior. If he had not fired Comey, against wise counsel, he would not have to deal with a far more respected and influential “opponent” Mueller. That is a lesson that he needs to prove he has finally learned. 

THE MOTIVE? 

To date Trump’s possible motive for his love of Putin and the Russians and his sustained opposition to investigating their interference in the elections is not out there front and center. All that is clear are his clumsy autocratic and “illegal’ moves to sabotage the enquiry. The Post story states that Mueller is also looking into subjects such as money laundering. The as yet uncorroborated Steele report detailed possible money issues that linked the POTUS to the Russians. The conspiracy theorists can have a field day linking all this to his refusal to present his income tax.returns. Well documented stories have noted contacts his operatives have had with Russian oligarchs and banks.

Whatever Trump’s reason for this self destructive behavior it has to be all important.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

As matters stand it is question of time before Trump pulls the trigger. It is not in his DNA just to continue smearing the FBI and Mueller he needs to act. If he does he could unleash violence on a scale never witnessed before. Already the daily news is punctuated by mass shootings which have become a way of life in America. This scenario widened to another dimension with a political attack this week. High power weapons can be purchased far more easily than a motor car resulting in a country armed to the gills. Trump is currently being sued in Federal Court for inciting a riot at one of his rallies. At another campaign rally he warned that Hillary Clinton could pick gun control Judges claiming that then “nothing you can do folks - Although Second Amendment People, maybe there is I don’t know”. This statement was widely interpreted as an invitation to violence. 

It is not an exaggeration to claim that the country is in unchartered waters and its very Foundation is being challenged like never before since the Civil War. It is Trump versus the Constitution. 

One can only pray that Trump had a Damascus Moment on the occasion of his seventy - first birthday on June 13 and will finally fulfill the prophesy of his faithful followers that he would eventually become Presidential.

TRUMP AND RUSSIA AFTER COMEY

The much anticipated fired FBI Director’s testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee has come and gone. There is little doubt that he had a stunning impact taking the obstruction of justice case against the POTUS one step further while elaborating on the Russian interference  into the American Presidential election. He more than hinted that this whole cause celebre may be “a very big deal”.  

His intervention follows the devastating impacts of fired Deputy Attorney General, Sally Yates, former Head of US Intelligence, General Clapper, who has maintained that Watergate pales into comparison with Russiagate and former CIA Director Brennan all who testified before Congressional Committees. They left no one in doubt as to the incompetence, negligence and sloppiness of the Trump Presidency at best and criminality at worst. Comey's submission to Congress was not his first. He had already informed them months ago that the FBI was conducting a probe into Russian intervention into the Presidential election as well as possible collusion between them and the Trump campaign. (It is well worth noting the stabilizing role public servants are playing in these uncertain times).

Comey never delivered a knock out blow because it is, at this stage, largely a case of “he said - he said”. However, it was in the issue of credibility, where the former Director made most of his gains, consolidating his reputation as an honest broker in contrast to Trump’s well known penchant for “alternative facts”.

Comey laid down clear markers on several issues, all of which made Trump all that more vulnerable politically and legally. There are a number of separate but related issues in the current investigation now being conducted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. There is the probe into the Russian espionage into the American Presidential Election in order to assist the Trump effort. There is an enquiry into whether there was any collusion between the Republican nominee’s campaign and the Russians and if so was there any quid pro quo for the Russian help. There are criminal probes into the behavior of Trump operatives, such as Paul Manafort and Mike Flynn that may or may not necessarily relate to Trump and his campaign. Finally, newly announced, was the fact that the Special Counsel would be looking into whether Trump was guilty of obstruction of justice. 

TRUMP AND RUSSIA

What is now unequivocally accepted by the bipartisan committee, and only really being questioned by Trump and Putin, is that the Russians orchestrated a highly effective espionage operation in an attempt to influence the American election in favor of Trump. Trump’s credibility takes a knock every time he fails to get with the program and outright condemn the Russians. He takes the absurdity to further limits by cozying up to Putin and his operatives. 

It was common cause that this Russian attack was an egregious violation of American’s sovereignty and Comey confirmed that anyone colluding with the Russians was guilty of a crime akin to treason. While several members of the POTUS’S  operatives had contact with the Russians, a large number of which were unreported to the relevant authorities, Trump was still sticking to those who were still part of his Administration. These included his son in law Jared Kushner and Attorney General Jeff Sessons. In a similar vein the President asked, (or at least “hoped for”), Comey to drop the Investigation into his fired Security Advisor, Mike Flynn.

While the President’s romance with Putin and Russia, at the expense of America’s traditional allies, was not the principle subject of this hearing it was the elephant in the room. Added to that was the unchallenged report that Trump had told Russian Ambassador Kyslak that he had got rid of the “nut job” Comey and that made it easier for him to deal with Russia.  Without laboring the point further, Trump had exhibited ample behavior signifying that he resented the Russian investigation into its alleged espionage. When push finally comes to shove, Trump’s bizarre position will come back to haunt him. This particularly so if he or members of his crew are found to be in collusion with the Russians.

COMEY’S CREDIBILITY AND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE WRITTEN TESTIMONY

Comey is a seasoned, polished, informed, intelligent, politically savvy and well respected witness to Congressional Meetings. Prior to the hearing he shrewdly presented a publicly released document of nine interactions between him and Trump that had caused him concern. The document itself read like Don Corleone warning the law enforcement officer how things were going to work now that he had come to town. It chronologically outlined the four month pressure the President had exerted on Comey. This written testimony allowed that all the questions could relate to interpretation as to what the words meant and Comey’s perception of the President’s behavior.

The diary served many other purposes. Specifically it allowed the fired Director to explain how it had come about that he had written contemporaneous memos following each of the interactions. It was not lost on the Committee that contemporaneous notes of meetings had significant legal weight, just short of corroborating evidence. The import of these records was heightened by the fact that he had shared them with others. The explanation for the writing of contemporaneous notes, a practice which he had never before resorted to with either Bush or Obama, was because of the nature and circumstance of the interactions. Most telling was that he did so knowing the “nature” of the Commander in Chief and in the belief that he may lie as to what had transpired. It was not the only occasion that he called the President a liar at the hearing. This is pretty damning stuff and remember this was a conclusion he derived at in January 2017.

The prepared statement on its face provides a prima facie obstruction of justice case. It detailed that Trump, who was to say the least unhappy about the Comey led Russian investigation, the refusal of the FBI Director to publicly remove him from the cloud of suspicion and who would not aver loyalty to him, then fired him with the stated reason that it was the Russia issue that lead to his decision. He confirmed this rationale in his as discussion with the Russian Foreign Minister that his intention in ridding himself of the “nut job” was to make it easier for him to negotiate with the Russians,

Comey concluded unreservedly that he was fired because of the way he had conducted the Russian investigation. 

COMEY’S DEMEANOUR 

In the deliverance of his testimony Comey appeared measured, circumspect, not prone to exaggeration and honest to a fault. As a prosecutor he is more than aware of the weight the Judge accords to the demeanor of the witness. Besides his contemporaneous notes and sharing of testimony at the time of the interactions, Comey’s desire for transparency was reinforced by his call for the production of the Trump tapes. In the three hour long discussion he stated clearly what was his interpretation and what was fact. The FBI Director admitted, for example, in not challenging Trump directly he had not acted courageously. He volunteered leaking the Flynn story to the Press via a friend as he could not be sure that there would be a thorough investigation unless a Special Counsel was appointed. 

He was congruent and did not duck difficult questions such as the reasoning behind his actions relating to Hillary Clinton’s e - mail investigation. He argued, plausibly and with evidence, that he was fearful that Loretta Lynch, the then Attorney General was in cahoots with the Clintons and that the integrity of the FBI was at risk. Although questions remain as to his judgement in that matter where his action impacted the election his integrity could not be questioned. Finally he came through as the public servant defending the FBI and its independence and claimed that Trump had defamed him and the FBI with lies. 

Trump has denied much of what Comey has alleged and has yet to go under oath and have his statements tested. It is also telling to note that the jury in this instance, the whole Senate Investigation Committee, vouched for the probity of Director Comey. The latter circumstance is very unlikely to be repeated in the event that the Committee is asked to vouch for the POTUS. Every fact checker points to him being a chronic pathological liar. 

As might be expected Trump declared victory, harping on one fact in Comey’s statement that confirmed that he Trump, had been informed three times that he was not under investigation.  A circumstance that apparently does not exist today. There was a categorical denial as to the allegation that the POTUS asked Comey for loyalty or to drop the Flynn investigation. The President’s counter attack once again focussed on the fact that there were Comey leaks rather than on the substance of the Russian investigation.

THE STATUS OF THE INVESTIGATIONS.

* The obstruction of justice investigation is potentially the nearest to completion and Trump is in deep jeopardy if there is any corroboration on Comey’s version of the saga. While there are several legal authorities who believe there is already enough evidence to go forward with what would amount to impeachment charges on obstruction of justice, the Special Counsel is unlikely to proceed with the predominant evidence being based on “he said, he said”. Of significance is the fact that Special Council Mueller has hired lawyers who were involved in previous impeachment proceedings. Hanging out there is the possibility that Trump appointees, Directors Rogers and Coates are forced to reply as to whether they were approached by Trump to persuade Comey to downplay the Russian investigation. There have been several reports to that effect. They inexplicably and repeatedly refused to answer that question in both open and closed Senate Intelligence Committee hearings. As it is obvious that Rogers and Coates didn’t leak the story themselves, they had to have told others who did. 

*  The how and the where of the Russian intrusion into the American elections has been ongoing for over a year. This is the central enquiry. One has to assume that there is a stack of data that has been assembled on that matter. The Steele document which outlined what the Russians may have on Trump is obviously a source the Feds have used and Comey would only discuss that in closed session. The question remains as to whether or not the likes of example, Mike Flynn, Jeff Sessons, or Paul Manafort or even Trump colluded or were in the know. To the nation this is the most important issue. If there was American collusion then in the words of Jim Comey, “That is a very big deal”.

*  The criminal proceedings arising out of this trial such as lying to the FBI, failing to report foreign meetings or money on security applications also have to be near completion. However in the complex world of prosecutions depending what is going on in the central Russian investigation there could be plea bargaining and immunity offerings in the works. Flynn has asked for immunity in exchange for a “story he has to tell”. Thus all these enquiries will probably be concluded together. Mueller, who has a reputation for thoroughness, will leave no leaf unturned to present as comprehensive conclusions as possible.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The obstruction of justice charges which would result in impeachment are in effect political in their nature. No impeachment proceedings have ever gone ahead against a President if his Party controls the House. It also needs overwhelming public support, which in practical terms means for Republicans to support it, Trump’s approval ratings have to tank. They have recently consistently broken through the forty percent mark - the latest poll indicating a thirty - four percent approval rating. Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight has also produced a significant statistic that threatens Trump’s viability. He has shown that of the group that support Trump only half of those that formerly “strongly supported” Trump do so now. More compelling will be the results of bye elections particularly in Georgia. If the Republicans lose the panic will be overt.

What is not going to sit well at the end of the day is the fact that Trump has not once enquired as to how the investigation into Russian interference is going. This is a matter which the whole Intelligence community is ad idem on - that Russians represent an ongoing threat to the democracy of America and their behavior is a threat to our very way of life. Rather Trump panders to the Russians and brags that he has fired the very person that lead the investigation into their treachery in the country that he is the President of. 

This all begs the real question, “What have the Russians got on Trump for him to behave in this fashion?”. The answer may lie in the question Director Comey refused to answer at the open hearings relating to a Russian Bank. There has to be a very big story behind Trump not only ignoring a flagrant attack on American democracy by a major adversary but also fraternizing with them. In addition firing the Country’s chief policeman so as to facilitate his relationship with this totalitarian enemy.